Over the coming days, I am discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong. 2020 projections are available right here.
Cody Bellinger seeks to break the record for first-time eligible players in 2020, after putting up an MVP campaign in his platform season to tack onto a resume that already has a Rookie of the Year award. Bellinger hit 47 home runs and knocked in 115, while batting .305 and stealing 15 bases through 661 plate appearances. For his career, that gives Bellinger 111 HR, 288 RBI, a .278 average, and 39 steals in 1841 plate appearances. That immediately puts him in rarified air.
In recent memory, only three players have entered arbitration for the first-time with both an ROY and an MVP award. Ryan Howard smashed the first-time eligible arbitration record way back in 2008 with these accomplishments. He had also hit 47 home runs in his platform season, but had batted only .268 (although he did knock in 136 runs). His 129 career home runs and 353 career RBI, plus his .291 career average, led to a $10MM salary after he beat the Phillies in arbitration (who had filed for only $7MM).
It took five more years for another player to reach arbitration with an ROY and MVP, and that was Buster Posey. Posey had only hit 24 HR in his platform year though, and 46 in his career, and ended up with a less remarkable $8MM.
It was not until Kris Bryant again accomplished that combination in 2018 that we saw Ryan Howard’s decade-old record fall as Bryant earned $10.85MM. Bryant is the most obvious comparable for Bellinger here. Bryant had a .295/29/73 platform in 665 PA, which is definitely weaker than Bellinger’s .305/47/115 in 661 PA—especially because Bellinger stole 15 bases to Bryant’s seven. For career numbers, Bryant also fell short in HR (94 versus 111), RBI (274 versus 288), and SB (28 versus 39), but he did have a .288 average to Bellinger’s .278. Of course, batting average has historically been far less important than power numbers for arbitration cases, so it stands to reason Bellinger should top Bryant’s $10.85MM. My model estimates $11.6MM, which may be on the low side.
Finding other comparable players is quite challenging. Two other players have received eight figure salaries in their first year of eligibility. Mookie Betts in 2018 had a .264/24/102 platform year, but had 26 stolen bases that season as well as a career .292/78/310 line and 80 total stolen bases. He got $10.55MM, and Bellinger’s case also looks favorable to his. Last year, Francisco Lindor had a platform .277/38/92 campaign with 25 SB, along with .288/98/310 career along with 71 SB. Lindor received $10.55MM. Again, Bellinger’s case compares favorably.
Overall, this seems likely to just be a matter of how much Bellinger will break Bryant’s record by. I think the floor is probably the $850K difference that the model projects (at $11.6MM), and I could easily see Bellinger landing north of $12MM or perhaps even $13MM.
Why is an entire article written about this? Could sum it up in a blurb. Bellinger stands to make between 11-13 million after arbitration. Next waste of a story.
You clicked on it. If you don’t like it, just simply move on. Don’t have to be an arse…
Ha! Now that’s Funny!!!! Ha!
Well said! In this slow baseball news time, I enjoy any attempts at a baseball related article
The whole process of arbitration is like an art, and can affect a teams payroll significantly moving forward. You don’t have to read every article you know. What a jerk. Smh
Yes please give us less content!!! /s
You, of course, read every line, then complained about the fact that you read every line.
Yes, salary projections with no context is preferable!
You should work on coaching yourself. You should start by blocking this site from any internet browser you use, just so you don’t accidentally subject yourself to reading too much free content. Next, delete your account, just in case you do accidentally read too much, as this will prevent you from wasting even more of your precious time with a stupid comment.
Demand you money back!
I for one love these articles. Like antibelt wrote it is an art and Matt is rarely off by much.
Sue for emotional distress, puss.
Hate to be the team trying to save money in these negotiations….. cause it ain’t happening
Peak year for Bellinger
crazy how much he will make in his final year. 1st year record and super 2.
Whatever he gets he deserves it, it sure is fun to watch him play
Yup, him and Acuna are must-see TV, at the plate AND in the field.
Any chance you could add some WRC+ and/or some WAR to the analysis? Quite a bit of talk about batting average and RBI, which most of us agree are less than perfect statistics
It’s what arb uses, largely.
Noted, thank you Chester
All statistics are less than perfect.
And some are less perfect than others
What? And you think WAR is a perfect statistic?
“Pay him his money”- John Malkovich as KGB Boss in Rounders
One constructive critique I have of these articles is they have one major glaring error: They fail to recognize that in arbitration, it’s a winner-take-all outcome. The arbitrator has to pick either the player’s request, or the teams offer.
So when the author is saying his model predicts that Bellinger will smash Kris Bryant’s first year record, you have to account for the fact that Bellinger will not want to go in with that high of an ask above past precedent, or he risks the arbitrator siding with the team.
There is no way Bellinger asks for $12 or $13M, because there is no precedent for that and he risks losing if he’s too aggressive. In all likelihood, the arbitrator is going to side with whoever puts in a figure closest to the $10.55M that both Lindor and Betts got (or maybe Bryant’s $10.85M).
So if the team files at $9.5M and Bellinger asks for $12M, there is a very good chance that the Dodgers win (being closer to the $10.55M number). This process serves to push both sides to meet somewhere close to the likely outcome midpoint.
That “one outcome or the other” process is something these models fail to account for.
Seems to me these “models” seek to generate a relative value for the specific player.
Like your “constructive criticism”, the rest is just opinion ….
See my reply below, where I provide facts about how arbitration works under the CBA, not opinion.
I don’t understand how you can argue that Bellinger’s performance above and beyond the closest precedent means that he’ll make less than the amount set in the most recent example, it’s counter-intuitive.
There are a number of factors that the arbitrators consider, not just stats. Look at Article VI, Section E, Part 10 of the CBA.
Comparable stats are given the most weight But also considered are the length of the player’s performance, and believe it or not, “fan appeal” to a team and “importance to the team/leadership” are also considered in the arbitrator’s formula.
If this was a simple analytics/SABRmetrics exercise, no one would ever go to arbitration, because a model could be built fairly easily to know exactly what the player is worth. Everyone would basically agree, but the non-quantifiable factors are what skew the numbers.
In this example, let’s agree with your argument that Bellinger’s performance in his platform year was 10 to 20% better than all Bryant, Lindor and Betts in theirs. The comparables approach would come really close to the conclusion that the author makes here, that Bellinger deserves a salary in the mid-to-upper $11 millions. Maybe even $12M.
Then, you have to account for his relative fan appeal. I’m sure an arbitrator is going to say that Kershaw has more Dodgers fan appeal/merchandise sales than Bellinger at this point in time. However, Lindor, Betts, and probably Bryant are all #1 for their teams without question. Those three are also probably considered the most important members of their team (at the same point in time).
Remember, the arbitration model does not consider future value, or how young a player is. In fact, the younger a player is, the more it works against them, because the model considers length of past performance at similar levels.
So you likely take the $11.6 to $12M baseline and adjust it down for Bellinger. I think the arbitrator probably has a number in mind very, very close to Lindor, Betts, and Bryant, in the $10.5 to $10.8M range.
Whichever side submits a number closest to that will win their case.
While this is true the unprecedented size of these numbers is also an argument for the team and the player to settle on a salary outside of arbitration.
Yeah, man. Totally.
Next year he’ll hit about .265, .370, .550 with 38 bombs. Besides 1 absolutely crazy month in April 2019, that’s what he’s been his entire career.
Still MVP numbers with his defense, but not the monster numbers we saw in 2019.
You may be right, but I also have a hard time saying any player’s age 23 season is the best we’ll ever see from that player. While there are examples of players peaking that early, most continue improving. Mike Trout was the best player in baseball at 23 years old, but has still been better age 25-27.
He’s not even 25 years old yet. Most guys who put up MVP numbers have 1 insane month.
Well on his way to being the first player to clear 30MM in a single arb year if they don’t work out an extension.
Everyone knows anything with the Dodgers, Cubs,
Yankees and Red Sox in the headline @ MLBTR gets the most postings.
Bellinger, Betts, Lindor, Cole–I want to know where they will play next year and who they might be traded for.. Baseball 24/7.
You have to wonder if some of the Dodgers spending restraint in this offseason has to do with them preparing a long term extension for Bellinger. I know Friedman is not a fan of long term contracts but I think Belli is such a unique player that Friedman wouldn’t hesitate to lock him up for 5-8 years at the right price. A 5 year, $130M contract sounds about right, given that this is just his first year of arbitration.
That’s wouldn’t make much sense. He goes through arbitration first time. If he makes 11 million this season, you can conservatively project -17,23,30 for his final 3. You add that up and it’s 81 million bucks. With that payday looming i can’t imagine either side agrees to a deal like that. It’d have to be closer to a 8-9 + year 240+ MM agreement.