Cody Bellinger

Cubs Sign Cody Bellinger

By Darragh McDonald | December 14, 2022 at 3:00pm CDT

December 14: The Cubs have officially announced the signing.

December 6: The Cubs are in agreement on a deal with outfielder Cody Bellinger. It will be a one-year deal with a $12.5MM salary and a $5MM buyout on a mutual option, bringing the guarantee to $17.5MM. Bellinger is represented by the Boras Corporation.

Bellinger, 27, has been one of the more interesting free agents this offseason, given that he has shown incredible upside in the past but has been in a dismal downturn in recent years. Over his first three seasons, 2017 to 2019, Bellinger hit 111 home runs and stole 39 bases. He walked in 12.4% of his plate appearances, leading to a batting line of .278/.368/.559 for a wRC+ of 140, indicating he was 40% better than league average during that time. That included a 2019 season where he hit 47 home runs, swiped 15 bags and produced a wRC+ of 161. He also provided excellent outfield defense, leading to a tally of 7.7 wins above replacement in the eyes of FanGraphs. He was awarded the National League Most Valuable Player award for that season.

Bellinger slid a bit from those heights in the shortened 2020 season. He hit .239/.333/.455, still above average with his wRC+ finishing at 112, but a significant drop-off from previous seasons. An ill-advised celebration in the postseason caused a shoulder injury that required surgery and he hasn’t seemed himself since. He hit just .165/.240/.302 in 2021 for a wRC+ of 47, then bounced back a bit in 2022 but still finished at .210/.265/.389, wRC+ of 83.

Despite those down years, Bellinger’s salary kept climbing for a few reasons. He reached arbitration for the first time going into 2020, on the heels of his MVP campaign, as a Super Two player. He quickly jumped up to $11.5MM in his first year of eligibility and then to $16.1MM for 2021 after having a diminished but still productive 2020. Since the arbitration system is designed to push salaries up, Bellinger jumped to $17MM for 2022 despite his poor performance in the prior season. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected another jump to $18.1MM for 2023 but the Dodgers decided to cut bait and non-tendered Bellinger, sending him to free agency. With Bellinger now moving on to a new club, they will have to chart a new course in center field for 2023.

Despite the rough few years Bellinger has had, he still found robust interest as a free agent. At one point, Heyman reported that there were 11 teams at the table. That’s due to a couple of factors, one of them being that Bellinger was looking for a one-year deal so that he could potentially return to form and then go back to free agency in search of a better deal. That opened the door to many suitors who would normally be wary of a lengthy commitment but would happily take a short-term bet on a player with MVP upside. There’s also the fact that Bellinger provides a decent floor with his speed and excellent center field defense. Despite a subpar batting line in 2022, he still produced 1.7 fWAR by stealing 17 bases and producing six Outs Above Average in center field.

The Cubs were linked to Bellinger a few weeks ago and make plenty of sense as a landing spot for him. The rebuilding team had a rotating cast of characters playing center field for them this year, including Christopher Morel, Jason Heyward, Rafael Ortega, Nelson Velázquez and Michael Hermosillo. All of those players were subpar at the plate except for Morel, who is a natural infielder and produced poor defensive numbers on the grass. The Cubs have some intriguing outfield prospects that could fill this role in the long run, but Bellinger and Ian Happ are set to become free agents a year from now, meaning there’s plenty of long-term runway. Seiya Suzuki, who’s controlled through 2026, is the only outfielder penciled in for the long haul.

Financially, there’s no real impediment for the Cubs either. Bellinger’s contract pushes their commitments to just under $140MM for next year, according to Roster Resource. They had an Opening Day payroll of $143MM in 2022, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, but have been over $203MM in recent seasons and should have plenty of space still to work with.

The Cubs have been rebuilding in recent years but could be aggressive this offseason in trying to return to contention in 2023. Whether they are successful or not, Bellinger could potentially be valuable to them. As mentioned, Bellinger can still be a useful ballplayer even if his bat doesn’t rebound to previous levels. If he and the team are both playing well, that’s a great outcome for all involved. If he’s playing well and the club is bad, his short-term deal means he should be able to be flipped at the deadline for prospects. As mentioned, even if Bellinger doesn’t truly bounce back, he can still be a useful player with his glovework and baserunning, meaning he could still be an interested trade chip regardless.

Jon Heyman of The New York Post was first with Bellinger going to the Cubs. Jeff Passan of ESPN first had the $17.5MM guarantee. Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times first reported the structure of the $12.5MM salary with $5MM buyout on the mutual option.

Quick Hits: Kiermaier, Dodgers, Red Sox, Marlins, Bellinger, Bell, Rays, Diaz, Reds

By Mark Polishuk | December 10, 2022 at 9:08pm CDT

Kevin Kiermaier is off the market after agreeing to a deal with the Blue Jays earlier today, and the former Gold Glover was drawing interest elsewhere on the market. The Dodgers “were in the running down to the end” on Kiermaier, according to Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times (Twitter link), as Kiermaier was presumably being eyed as the left-handed hitting, center field replacement for Cody Bellinger. Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman is no stranger to Kiermaier, as Friedman was the Rays’ general manager when Kiermaier began his career in Tampa Bay.

Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom is also a former member of Tampa’s front office, but Kiermaier and the Sox had only “periphery discussions” about a possible contract, MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo tweets. Adding Kiermaier would’ve helped the Sox address their needs in the outfield, but the newly-signed Masataka Yoshida is Boston’s biggest swing in the outfield market to date. For now, the first-choice Red Sox starting outfield looks like Yoshida in left field, Enrique Hernandez in center, and Alex Verdugo in right.

Dodgers, Rockies, Reds Exploring Center Field Market

By Anthony Franco | December 6, 2022 at 7:02pm CDT

Any chance of the Dodgers retaining Cody Bellinger at a lower price after they non-tendered him were dashed this afternoon, with the 2019 NL MVP agreeing to terms on a $17.5MM pact with the Cubs. Shortly after news of that agreement broke, L.A. manager Dave Roberts met with reporters and confirmed the club is scouring the market for center field help (via Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times).

Aside from Aaron Judge, the free agent class is handily led by Brandon Nimmo. The longtime Met is coming off arguably a career-best season in which he hit .274/.367/.433 over a personal-high 673 plate appearances. Headed into his age-30 campaign, the lefty-swinging Nimmo is widely expected to command a deal that tops nine figures. Nimmo has drawn interest from the Yankees, Giants, Rays, Mariners and Blue Jays in addition to the incumbent Mets. There’s been no concrete reports of any interest on L.A.’s part, though they’re certainly capable of exploring that market.

Teams not interested in making that kind of commitment are facing a rather sharp drop to the next tier. It’s possible that applies to the Dodgers, and it’s certainly a factor for the Rockies and Reds. Colorado general manager Bill Schmidt tells Danielle Allentuck of the Colorado Springs Gazette the team is seeking a left-handed hitter, preferably a player who can factor into center field (Twitter link). Nimmo fits that description, but both Allentuck and Nick Groke of the Athletic suggested yesterday he’d be too pricey for the Rockies.

Meanwhile, Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer reports the Reds are seeking center field help and have looked to the free agent market. As with Colorado, Nimmo’s certainly out of the question for Cincinnati. Nightengale suggests the team is likely looking at one-year offers for hitters of interest. Payroll limitations have loomed over the Reds in each of the last two offseasons, and GM Nick Krall told reporters yesterday the front office has “a little bit of money” to spend this winter but cautioned they “don’t have a ton” at their disposal.

With Bellinger off the board, the market beyond Nimmo is very thin. Kevin Kiermaier is perhaps the only regular center fielder available, and he’s coming off a .228/.281/.369 showing with the Rays before his season was cut short by hip surgery. Jon Heyman of the New York Post tweeted this afternoon the Mets could look into Kiermaier if Nimmo signs elsewhere. Beyond the longtime Ray, the market is led by depth options like Rafael Ortega, Adam Engel and Jackie Bradley Jr. Perhaps teams could look to Andrew Benintendi or Joey Gallo given the scarcity of the center field market, although both players have worked exclusively in the corners for the past couple seasons.

It’s a similar story on the trade market, where there aren’t many obvious candidates. Pittsburgh’s Bryan Reynolds will be the subject of renewed speculation after his trade request became public last week, but the Bucs have maintained it won’t increase their likelihood of actually making a move. The Diamondbacks are known to be open to offers on a number of their young outfielders but only in deals that’d net them MLB help. Speculatively speaking, players like Michael A. Taylor or Trent Grisham could plausibly come up in trade discussions, but there’s been no indication either is currently on the block.

Brandon Nimmo Notes: Mets, Rockies

By Mark Polishuk | December 5, 2022 at 8:21pm CDT

Brandon Nimmo will make an in-person appearance at the Winter Meetings on Tuesday, adding to the intrigue surrounding his market. As the top center fielder available, Nimmo has been publicly linked to the Mariners, Giants, Blue Jays, Rays, and Yankees, and probably several other unknown teams have also checked in on his availability.

Despite all this interest, it remains possible that Nimmo might remain in Queens, as Mets GM Billy Eppler told MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo and other reports that the Mets have continued to have “dialogue” with Nimmo and his representatives. As the offseason got underway, reports surfaced that the Mets were prioritizing re-signing Nimmo and Edwin Diaz from their large pool of internal free agents. Diaz, of course, re-signed with New York before the free agent market even officially opened, inking a five-year, $102MM deal to remain with the Mets.

Nimmo remains available almost a month after Diaz put pen to paper, though that isn’t surprising given the large amount of interest in Nimmo’s services, and the possibility that his next contract could top Diaz’s dollar figure. Also, Scott Boras is Nimmo’s agent, and Boras usually encourages his clients to fully test the open market before considering circling back to their former teams.

Pitching has been the chief focus of the Mets’ offseason to date, with Diaz re-signed and now Justin Verlander agreeing to a deal with the Amazins today. While the Mets continue to look at more rotation candidates, it stands to reason that with an ace pitcher and a star closer now checked off the winter to-do list, Eppler and company can now turn more attention to addressing center field.

The Rockies are one team that no longer seems to be pursuing Nimmo, as both Danielle Allentuck of the Denver Gazette and Nick Groke of the Athletic feel the club isn’t a fit considering Nimmo’s desire for a long-term contract. While the Rox are looking for outfielders, they would prefer a shorter-term option so that any of the club’s top outfield prospects (i.e. Zac Veen) don’t get blocked. To this end, Cody Bellinger continues to be an Colorado’s radar, as Bellinger is reportedly only looking for a one-year contract in order to re-establish his market.

The Opener: Starters, Shortstops, Bellinger

By Darragh McDonald | November 28, 2022 at 9:39am CDT

What sort of shopping is happening in MLB free agency on this Cyber Monday?

1. Is The Backend Starting Pitching Market About To Move?

This year’s free agent starting pitching market is headlined by aces Jacob deGrom, Justin Verlander and Carlos Rodon. But many teams already know they won’t be shopping in that aisle and don’t need to wait around to see where those guys sign. The White Sox made the first significant move of the lower tiers, grabbing Mike Clevinger on a one-year, $12MM deal this weekend. This was right around MLBTR’s prediction of one-year and $10MM. For the other teams looking to make this level of investment, will they push on to similar pitchers? Corey Kluber, Johnny Cueto, Wade Miley and Kyle Gibson would make sense as backup targets for the teams that missed on Clevinger and those pitchers could get increased interest in the near future. Noah Syndergaard returned from Tommy John in 2022 and was relatively effective, but with diminished velocity and results compared to before the surgery. Will he have to settle for another one-year deal like last year or did he show enough to push himself into a multi-year deal?

2. Will Any Of The “Big Four” Shortstops Sign Before The End Of The Year?

The rumors involving the “Big Four” shortstops have been flying lately, with various teams interested in Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts, Trea Turner and Dansby Swanson. However, it’s unclear if any of them are particularly close to reaching a deal. Will there be any movement between now and the end of the year? One factor might be agent Scott Boras, who represents both Correa and Bogaerts, as well as Rodon, Brandon Nimmo, Michael Conforto, Josh Bell, Taijuan Walker, J.D. Martinez, Cody Bellinger, Jurickson Profar, Joey Gallo and others. Boras has previously shown a willingness to wait until the New Year to find the best deals for his clients, but he surely can’t do that with all of them. As Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic writes, “Boras has so many free-agent clients, he probably will want to start taking some off the board.” Does that mean Boras will start striking deals at the Winter Meetings that start on Sunday? Or maybe even before?

3. How High Will Cody Bellinger’s Salary Go?

Cody Bellinger has fallen on hard times in recent years, having below-average offensive seasons in both 2021 and 2022. However, his previous MVP-winning production pushed his arbitration salary up, with MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projecting a salary of $18.1MM for 2023. The Dodgers weren’t willing to pay him at that level after his two lost seasons and presumably couldn’t find a willing trade partner either, leading to Bellinger’s non-tender a couple of weeks ago. The interest in Bellinger as a free agent has been robust, with Jon Heyman of The New York Post reporting last week that 11 teams are at the table. Despite Bellinger’s rough results in recent years, plenty of teams need help in center and there aren’t many great options. Though no team was willing to give up anything noteworthy in a trade in exchange for the ability to pay Bellinger close to $20MM, is there a team willing to pay him in that range when it only costs money?

Cubs Interested In Michael Conforto, Cody Bellinger

By Darragh McDonald | November 25, 2022 at 10:01am CDT

Outfielders Michael Conforto and Cody Bellinger are both risky bets with huge payoff potential and it seems the Cubs are interested in putting some money down there. Jon Heyman of The New York Post connects the Cubs to both of them and also adds the Astros to the lengthy list of Bellinger suitors.

Conforto, 30 in March, is a real wild card since he had an excellent run of play from 2017 to 2020 but has had a frustrating time since then. He hit 97 home runs during that strong period, producing an overall batting line of .265/.369/.496. That production was 33% better than the league average hitter, as evidenced by his 133 wRC+.

He slumped in 2021 by hitting just 14 homers and slashing .232/.344/.384. His 106 wRC+ shows that he was still a bit above average, but it was a noticeable drop from his previous output. He received and rejected a qualifying offer from the Mets, still believing he could find a bigger payday despite the down season. Unfortunately, he injured his shoulder during the lockout, requiring surgery that wiped out his 2022 entirely.

After one down year and a lost campaign, it’s difficult to know what to expect from Conforto going forward. That uncertainty will put a damper on his market but he’ll surely find teams interested in taking a shot, hoping he can return to the kind of hitter he was a few years ago. He’s already been connected to the Yankees and Mets this offseason and has connected to the Blue Jays prior to that.

Bellinger, 27, is a somewhat similar case, as he also had a strong four-year run from 2017 to 2020, including an MVP season in 2019. Over that stretch, Bellinger hit 123 home runs and slashed .273/.364/.547 for a wRC+ of 137. However, he injured his shoulder during the 2020 postseason on an ill-advised celebration and hasn’t been himself since. He hit a dismal .165/.240/.302 in 2021 and rebounded slightly to .210/.265/.389 in 2022, but that latter line was still well below average.

Bellinger comes with a higher floor than Conforto as his speed and defense can make him valuable even if his bat doesn’t rebound. FanGraphs calculated him to be worth 1.7 wins above replacement this year, even with the tepid offensive production. Conforto, however, doesn’t rate out as well in those departments and really needs to produce at the plate in order to be useful.

For the Cubs, it’s not shocking to see that they are considering adding an outfielder with their lack of clarity on the grass. Seiya Suzuki is the only long-term piece in place right now, as he has four years remaining on his contract and should have right field locked down. In left field, Ian Happ should be the everyday option but he is just one year away from reaching free agency. In center field, the Cubs used a handful of different options in 2022 with no one securing the job. They also don’t have an obvious designated hitter at the moment, making it easy to slot another potent bat into their lineup.

After rebuilding in recent years, the Cubs have been rumored to be considering more aggressive spending in order to help push back to contention. They delivered on that last year to a degree, giving multi-year deals to Suzuki and Marcus Stroman, in addition to a batch of one-year contracts. Neither Bellinger nor Conforto will require top-of-the-market deals, given their recent struggles. Bellinger is reportedly looking for a one-year deal in order to hopefully return to free agency with a stronger platform season. Conforto is apparently looking for a deal somewhat similar to what Carlos Rodón got from the Giants, a two-year guarantee that allows him to opt out if he has a strong showing in year one.

The Cubs should have lots of payroll room to work with, as they are currently pegged at about $127MM, per Roster Resource. That’s well shy of 2022’s $143MM Opening Day figure and their franchise high of $203MM from 2019, with figures from Cot’s Baseball Contracts. They’ve been rumored to be in the market for the top free agent shortstops, but it’s possible that they end up losing out to clubs that are more firmly in win-now mode. Whether they succeed in that area or not, turning a 74-win team into a contender in one offseason is a challenge. Taking short-term fliers on bounceback candidates like Conforto and Bellinger makes plenty of sense, as they have the potential to both bolster the club’s chances in 2023 while also potentially becoming trade candidates at next year’s deadline if they fall back in the standings again.

As for the Astros, it was recently reported that they are targeting left-handed hitting outfielders. This is in part due to the fact that Michael Brantley is now a free agent, leaving them with Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker as the only left-handers locked into the lineup. Bellinger would help balance the lineup but, as mentioned, there’s uncertainty in what kind of production he’s likely to provide. The Astros have avoided lengthy commitments in recent years, as the last free agent they signed to a deal longer than two years was Josh Reddick back in 2016.

Bellinger’s desire for a one-year deal certainly fits their M.O., and his defensive prowess would afford the club opportunities. Alvarez got into 56 games in left field this year, a personal high for him. It’s possible he continues pushing that number but he’s still likely to spend at least some time as the designated hitter. Chas McCormick is a strong defender in center field but he hits from the right side, meaning he and Bellinger could potentially be deployed in a platoon. McCormick hit .340/.409/.563 against lefties last year has a career 125 wRC+ versus righties but just a 99 against southpaws. On days when Alvarez is the DH, McCormick and Bellinger taking the field next to Tucker could give the club a very strong defensive trio.

Houston’s payroll is actually not far off from last year’s, as Roster Resource currently has them around $164MM. That’s just $11MM shy of last year’s $175MM Opening Day figure, per Cot’s. Even a modest deal that Bellinger will likely require would get them closer to or over last year’s number, but it wouldn’t be surprising if they push their spending up on the heels of a World Series victory.

Heyman says that there are 11 teams in the Bellinger sweepstakes, which also includes known suitors in the Yankees, Giants, Rockies and Blue Jays.

Latest On Yankees’ Free Agent Targets

By Mark Polishuk | November 24, 2022 at 3:50pm CDT

The Yankees are certainly hoping they’ll be able to re-sign Aaron Judge, but until the AL MVP makes his decision, the Yankees are considering several other free agents and trade targets. In addition to some names already linked to New York in past reports, the New York Post’s Jon Heyman writes that the Yankees have checked in on the likes of Justin Verlander, Carlos Rodon, Brandon Nimmo, Cody Bellinger, Michael Conforto, and their own incumbent free agents Jameson Taillon and Andrew Benintendi.

In general, it’s pretty commonplace for the Yankees (or pretty much any team, particularly the biggest spenders) to at least get in contact with agents early in the offseason in order to gauge interest, or get a sense of asking prices for any particular player. As such, some of these players might not necessarily be at the top of the Yankees’ target list, and Heyman notes that some could be options only if Judge signs elsewhere. For instance, though “the Yankees seek multiple outfielders,” Heyman doesn’t think the Bronx Bombers would both re-sign Judge and also add Nimmo on a pricey contract. Likewise, the Yankees aren’t expected to bid at the top of the shortstop market, unless a Judge departure gives them new reason to explore Carlos Correa, Trea Turner, and company.

Since Anthony Rizzo has already been re-signed to solidify the first base position, New York’s offseason plan on the position player side looks pretty set — retain Judge, then add a less-expensive second outfielder (Conforto or Bellinger are both likely candidates for one-year contracts). Should an opportunity arise to move an infielder like Josh Donaldson, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, or perhaps even Gleyber Torres, the Yankees could pounce, but the presence of Oswaldo Cabrera, Oswald Peraza, and yet-to-debut star rookie Anthony Volpe gives the Bombers some flexibility in figuring out the infield mix. DJ LeMahieu’s toe injuries will also factor into the front office’s next decisions.

If Judge did leave the Bronx, of course, any number of new backup plans could be put into place. However, a Judge departure may only throw the position-player scenarios into flux, since Heyman writes that “the pitching pursuits are said to be ’on different tracks’ ” than the Yankees’ interest in position players. Though naturally adding any high-profile player has an overall impact on a roster in terms of salary or luxury-tax figures, it makes sense that adding a new pitcher isn’t necessarily tied to Judge’s situation, since Judge’s return has a bigger chain reaction on the lineup as a whole.

Putting a new starter into the rotation is a cleaner fit, especially if that new addition is an ace like Verlander or Rodon. While the Cy Young Award winner has been a Yankees target in the past, Heyman reports that “the Yankees’ confidence level on [signing] Verlander is low,” so he might also be something of a Plan B option for the club.

The Yankees also might not necessarily be seeking an ace, since Gerrit Cole and Nestor Cortes are already in the fold. Since Luis Severino, Frankie Montas, and Domingo German have their share of question marks, adding a reliable third-starter type like Taillon would help solidify the starting five. Kodai Senga (another pitcher garnering interest from the Bronx) is perhaps something of a wild card, given how it isn’t known how well he can make the transition from NPB to the major leagues. Senga’s stuff could make him a front-of-the-rotation arm might off the bat, or he might end up being more suited to the middle or back of a pitching staff.

Rockies Among Teams Interested In Cody Bellinger

By Steve Adams | November 23, 2022 at 1:11pm CDT

The Rockies are among the growing number of teams with some interest in recently non-tendered outfielder Cody Bellinger, reports Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post. The 2017 NL Rookie of the Year and 2019 NL MVP has also been tied to the Blue Jays and Giants in the past few days.

While Bellinger, who has hit just .193/.256/.355 over the past two seasons after undergoing shoulder surgery in 2020, is an obvious reclamation project at this point, he’s also a fairly sensible fit for the Rockies. Colorado center fielders were among the least-productive groups in all of MLB in 2022, slashing .240/.298/.334. The resulting 65 wRC+ was the second-worst mark of any team’s center field group. Bellinger, of course, has been even worse than that tepid output in recent seasons, but any team signing him will be rolling the dice on a return to form — if not all the way back to his MVP-caliber numbers then at least to a once-again productive source of power.

The Rockies have a pretty clear hole in center field, where a combination of Yonathan Daza and Randal Grichuk would be slated to play as things currently stand. Grichuk posted a .259/.299/.425 (88 wRC+) batting line in 2022, falling well shy of the expectations the Rockies had when acquiring him from the Blue Jays.

Daza makes tons of contact and even topped a .300 batting average in 2022, but his .301/.349/.384 slash also draws attention to his complete dearth of power; Daza has just four homers in 844 Major League plate appearances, so any regression in the .347 BABIP he’s enjoyed over the past two seasons could result in far more problematic bottom-line numbers. Defensively, both Grichuk and Daza turned in sub-par marks for their glovework in center field.

Bellinger, for all his warts at the plate over the past two seasons, has maintained at least average defensive marks (well above-average, per Statcast) for his work in center field and provided value on the basepaths. He’d also give some needed balance to a lineup that presently skews very heavily toward the right side of the plate. Third baseman Ryan McMahon and right fielder/designated hitter Charlie Blackmon are the only two lefties assured of any playing time. Corner prospects Michael Toglia (switch-hitter) and Nolan Jones (lefty), the latter of whom was recently acquired in a trade with the Guardians, could also add some balance if they play their way into the mix.

All teams with interest in Bellinger will have to determine just how big a bet they feel comfortable placing on his ability to rebound. The Dodgers clearly weren’t comfortable with his potential arbitration price — MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected an $18.1MM salary — but Bellinger will still command a weighty salary if enough teams join the bidding. Agent Scott Boras recently told Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic that Bellinger is likely to sign a one-year deal, and the brevity of that term could also serve to drive up the eventual price point. (Teams are typically far more willing to make aggressive bids on one-year deals than on multi-year arrangements.)

The question of how high to bid is a particularly pertinent one for a Rockies team that is already projected to shatter its previous franchise record — even with just one small signing on the docket so far this winter. The Rockies’ previous record for Opening Day payroll came in 2019, when they spent $145.3MM. Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez projects that they’re already up to $158.5MM. The Rockies will have to spend some money this offseason if they’re to have any hope of improving on another poor showing in 2022. Still, it’s fair to wonder whether the best use of their presumably limited resources will be to put down an eight-figure offer on a bounceback candidate, however high the ceiling may be.

Giants Interested In Brandon Nimmo, Cody Bellinger

By Darragh McDonald | November 21, 2022 at 3:14pm CDT

The Giants have been frequently speculated as a fit for Aaron Judge, but their offseason won’t entirely revolve around him. According to Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle, the club will be looking for two outfielders this winter and have checked in on both Brandon Nimmo and Cody Bellinger.

What sets Nimmo and Bellinger apart from most of the other free agent outfielders is the ability to play a competent center field. As noted by Slusser, the Giants’ outfield defense graded out poorly in 2022. The club used a hodgepodge of different options throughout the year, including Steven Duggar, Mauricio Dubon, Austin Slater, Mike Yastrzemski, Luis González, Jason Krizan, Stuart Fairchild, Joc Pederson, Bryce Johnson and Lewis Brinson. Defensive Runs Saved pegged them at -44, easily the worst in baseball with the Pirates next on the list at -33. Outs Above Average gave them a -25, tied with the Phillies for last. Only Ultimate Zone Rating was gentler, as their -21.8 in that category was 29th, edging out the White Sox. That’s a pretty unanimous assessment that says this is an area the club can upgrade, and having a reliable guy to pencil in there every day would certainly be appealing.

There are a handful of players who can provide help with the defensive side of things, such as Brinson, Jackie Bradley Jr., Brett Phillips, Bradley Zimmer, but they would likely be liabilities at the plate. Nimmo and Bellinger, however, have the potential to provide on both sides of the ball, though Bellinger’s offensive performance has been in quite an extended rut. Ever since injuring his shoulder during an ill-advised celebration in the 2020 postseason, he’s seemed lost at the plate. He mashed his way to MVP honors in 2019 by hitting 47 home runs and batting .305/.406/.629. His production slipped a bit in 2020 before he hit just .193/.256/.355 over 2021 and 2022 combined.

Whether he can get his offense back on track will be a key question, but he should have a decent floor thanks to his speed and defense. He was considered league average by DRS and UZR in 2022 while OAA was more enthused, giving him a mark of six for the year. He also swiped 14 bags this season, allowing him to be worth 1.7 fWAR despite the tepid work with the bat. Bellinger’s agent, Scott Boras, recently said that the outfielder will be looking for a one-year deal and it’s perhaps worth noting that this situation is at least mildly reminiscent of Carlos Rodón one year ago. Both players are represented by Boras and were entering free agency as talented players but with question marks about their consistency. The Giants and Rodón agreed to a two-year deal but with the southpaw afforded an opt-out to return to the open market after one season. Bellinger is apparently just looking for a straight one-year pact but perhaps the Giants will be the ones to step up and make that happen.

Nimmo’s case is less mysterious, at least in terms of his offense. He’s been fairly consistent at the plate, having an OBP of at least .367 in six straight seasons while keeping his wRC+ at 134 or higher over the past three. He had some durability concerns earlier in his career but has only had one significant injury absence over the past three years, which was due to a finger contusion in 2021. The defensive reviews are mixed, with both DRS and UZR giving him a negative number in 2020 and 2022 but a positive mark in 2021. OAA went negative in 2020 but has been positive the past two seasons. Wobbles from year to year with defensive metrics aren’t unheard of and it seems fair to expect Nimmo to provide at least average-ish glovework up the middle.

The problem with that stronger profile in recent seasons is that he will certainly cost much more than Bellinger. MLBTR projected him for $110MM over five years, or $22MM per season. Their payroll is currently around $133MM in the estimation of Roster Resource. That’s well shy of last year’s $155MM Opening Day figure and their franchise record of $200MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, but that doesn’t mean they will do everything they set their sights on. Given that the Giants have also expressed an interest in Judge, the top free agent shortstops and retaining Rodón, adding multiple nine-figure contracts is a bit tough to see. Then again, if the Giants end up missing on a few of their other targets, they should have plenty of payroll space to work with.

Whether they prioritize Nimmo or Bellinger, they will have competition. The Blue Jays are known to be interested in both Nimmo and Bellinger, while the Mets would like to bring Nimmo back to Queens.

Bellinger Likely To Sign One-Year Deal; Blue Jays Have Expressed Interest

By Steve Adams | November 21, 2022 at 9:59am CDT

In the months leading up to last week’s non-tender deadline, Cody Bellinger’s status with the Dodgers stood out as perhaps the most fascinating decision among the group, serving as the basis for plenty of spirited debate about whether the former NL MVP would be traded, non-tendered or brought back for one more chance to right the ship in Los Angeles. The Dodgers ultimately made the decision to cut Bellinger loose, making him one of the most intriguing boom-or-bust options on this year’s market — particularly given the scarcity of center fielders.

Agent Scott Boras tells Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic that he’s already received multi-year offers for Bellinger — presumably from teams hoping for the chance to secure a player with star potential at what would be a bargain annual value if they’re successfully able to rehabilitate him. However, pointing to Bellinger’s age (27), Boras suggested that he and Bellinger “most likely… don’t want a multi-year [contract].” MLB.com’s Jon Morosi tweets that the Blue Jays are among the teams to have expressed early interest in Bellinger, adding that they held some trade discussions surrounding Bellinger prior to his non-tender.

There’s good sense to pursuing only contracts that would allow Bellinger to return to the market a year from now. He won’t turn 28 years old until around the 2023 All-Star break, making him the youngest free agent of note this offseason. And although Bellinger has managed just a .193/.256/.355 slash with a 27.1% strikeout rate and 7.7% walk rate since Opening Day 2021 — due in no small part to a series of shoulder injuries that culminated in surgery — he’s also a former NL Rookie of the Year and Most Valuable Player. From 2017-20, he appeared in 506 games and tallied 2083 plate appearances while batting .273/.364/.547 with 123 home runs, a 21.5% strikeout rate and a 12.4% walk rate.

Even amid his recent offensive freefall, Bellinger has remained at least an average center fielder by virtue of any defensive metric, with Statcast offering particularly bullish reviews of his glovework. Statcast pegs Bellinger at eight Outs Above Average over the past two seasons and placed him in the 63rd percentile or better in arm strength, outfielder jump and sprint speed in both 2021 and 2022. Bellinger swiped 14 bags in 17 tries this past season and is 62-for-76 (81.5%) in his big league career.

Boras represents a pair of former All-Star rebound hopefuls under the age of 30 — Bellinger and Michael Conforto — but he’s publicly declared different contractual targets for the pair of outfielders. With regard to Conforto, Boras has spoken about the goal and purported likelihood that he’ll sign a two-year deal with the opportunity to opt out of the contract after one season — similar in concept (although perhaps not in magnitude) to the one fellow client Carlos Rodon inked with the Giants last winter.

That the ostensible preference or goal for Bellinger is to ink a straight one-year deal doesn’t necessarily indicate that no team is willing to put forth a multi-year deal and an opt-out, but it’s nevertheless a notable discrepancy for a pair of rebound candidates with All-Star ceilings. A straight one-year deal would quite likely be more appealing for teams, as any two-year pact with an opt-out carries considerably more downside for the signing club. (The second year on such contracts is typically only in play if the player gets hurt or performs poorly.)

A straight one-year deal for Bellinger gives him the best path to max out his current earning power, relatively limited as it may be, though it also creates the possibility that even if things break right for him, he’ll be saddled with a qualifying offer a year from now. If Bellinger rebounds strongly enough, that’s not likely to be a major detriment to his market as a 28-year-old, but it’s surely something that’s in the back of his mind as he weighs interest. While it’s doubtful he’d necessarily prioritize signing with a club that feels like a playoff long shot, Bellinger might also be more open to doing so, knowing that if he plays well and emerges as a trade candidate, a midseason move could help him dodge that QO entirely. Of course, a lot needs to go right for him to even be in that position.

A potential fit with the Blue Jays is easy enough to see — particularly after the team traded Teoscar Hernandez to the Mariners. Signing Bellinger would allow the Jays to slide George Springer from center field to right field while simultaneously adding a left-handed bat to help balance out an extremely right-handed lineup. The 2021-22 version of Bellinger is a major step down from Hernandez offensively, but the Jays would be a better defensive club with this alignment, and the obvious hope would be that a change of scenery would help bring Bellinger’s offense back up closer to its prior heights — even if a full rebound is probably too optimistic.

Load More Posts

Show all

Headlines

Cody Bellinger

Navigation

MLBTR INFO

Connect