January 24: Talks between San Diego and Boston regarding Betts are “ongoing,” Alex Speier of the Boston Globe reports. The Padres have proposed scenarios that would send Myers, controllable MLB assets and prospects to the Red Sox, though like Acee, he suggests the Padres’ very best prospects haven’t been included in talks. Speier adds that the Padres have been willing to “clear the bar” that was set by last year’s Paul Goldschmidt trade between Arizona and St. Louis, wherein the Cardinals sent catcher Carson Kelly, righty Luke Weaver, infield prospect Andy Young and a Competitive Balance draft pick to Arizona.
January 23, 7:34pm: The main stumbling block in trade talks is how much of Myers’ contract the Red Sox would be covering, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports, as the Padres want Boston’s obligation “to be much closer to the full value of the contract.” The prospects reportedly being discussed in the trade aren’t any of San Diego’s “top five minor leaguers,” which would mean the likes of Gore or Patino aren’t involved.
6:29pm: The Padres and Red Sox have had talks about a deal that would send former AL MVP Mookie Betts to San Diego, The Athletic’s Dennis Lin reports (subscription required). Boston’s side of the trade would consist of Wil Myers and “a significant amount of prospect talent,” as per the most recent discussion between the two clubs.
No trade seems close, as “multiple people familiar with the discussions characterized an agreement as unlikely….yet both sides appear to have legitimate interest.” If nothing else, the news indicates that the Red Sox haven’t closed the door on moving Betts prior to Opening Day, despite chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom’s multiple statements about his belief that Betts will remain in Boston. That said, trade talks doesn’t necessarily contradict Bloom’s comments; naturally he would be open to hearing what other teams have to say, even if he ultimately thinks Betts won’t be dealt since no club would meet the very high asking price he has put on Betts’ services.
That asking price doesn’t appear to be part of these talks with the Padres, which could be why Lin’s sources don’t think a trade will be finalized. As per ESPN.com’s Buster Olney, the Red Sox were looking to acquire “two high-end prospects” for a trade package that included Betts and David Price, with the trade partner covering “most or all” of the $96MM owed to Price through the 2022 season. Price’s name surfaced in talks with San Diego involving Myers earlier this offseason, though the Padres “seemingly have limited interest in such a scenario,” Lin writes.
Myers is owed $61MM over the next three seasons, and has been an inconsistent performer since signing that six-year, $83MM extension prior to the 2017 campaign. Myers has hit .244/.323/.444 with 59 homers over 1482 PA the last three seasons, good for only a modest 103 wRC+ and 105 OPS+. Myers has generated only 3.0 fWAR over that span due to this middling offensive performance and an increasing lack of defensive value — the Padres’ signing of first baseman Eric Hosmer left Myers bouncing around third base and all three outfield spots without much good glovework at any spot.
In Boston, Myers would probably at least get his old first base job back, as the Sox could deploy youngster Michael Chavis mostly as a second baseman. (Myers could also take over Betts’ spot in right field on days when Chavis is at first base.) There are some past ties between Bloom and Myers, as Bloom was in Tampa Bay’s front office when the Rays acquired Myers from the Royals prior to the 2013 season — and, it should be noted, also when the Rays dealt Myers to San Diego in the 2014-15 offseason.
Unless the Sox think a move to Fenway Park would unlock Myers’ bat in a major fashion, taking on Myers’ deal as part of a Betts trade would appear to be something of a curious move for a Boston club that seems to have made an offseason priority (despite the claims of owner John Henry) of reducing or altogether avoiding further luxury tax payments in 2020 after two years of overages. Since a contract’s luxury tax hit is calculated by average annual value, Myers’ $13.833 AAV is far less than the $27MM Betts is owed in 2020, which is also Betts’ final year under contract before hitting free agency.
Despite Betts’ lack of remaining contractual control and his stated desire to test free agency rather than sign an extension, moving a superstar like Betts for, essentially salary relief, isn’t the type of move that would go over well with Boston fans. One would figure the Sox are asking for the very best young talents from the Padres’ farm system, though reports from earlier this winter indicated that San Diego wasn’t willing to put the likes of Chris Paddack, MacKenzie Gore, and Luis Patino on the table in trade talks.
Other prospects could be under consideration in these Betts talks, as the Padres aren’t hurting for blue chip talent in their deep pipeline. From the Padres’ perspective, even parting ways with a Gore or Patino might be seen as acceptable if it meant swapping Myers for one of the sport’s best players in Betts. The Padres would be much better positioned to contend in 2020 with Betts in their lineup, and even if Betts did leave after the 2020 season, San Diego would stand to recoup a draft pick via the qualifying offer (thus partially replenishing their minor league ranks) and they’d still have the benefit of having Myers’ deal off of the books.
Damn, Gore on the move?
Does getting Betts even put the Padres less than 10 games behind the Dodgers though?
Preller knows he on the hot seat….
Just talk in my view to get the Dodgers back to the table…
Update: 01/24 initial update in my view is still a ploy to get LA to pick up the phone. Then again, we don’t know the prospects involved but unless Price is added, why would Boston pick up all three years left on Myers? I understand the lower value this year but unless they have another trade involving Price it makes no sense. Even if Price goes elsewhere, to get stuck with Myers, the prospects coming back have to be good.
If it gets them a wild card spot….
Not likely at best they might be 3rd in the division and more likely 4th with or without Betts.
No chance. It says the Padres aren’t meeting the Sox request for high end talent. And the Padres shouldn’t add him for a one year rental of Betts.
One of the best GMs in baseball traded Gleyber Torres for 2 months of Aroldis Chapman.
Very different scenario there. The Cubs knew they had a deep playoff run ahead of them. The Padres are still uncertain where they stand in 2020. They shouldn’t bet that much on one year when they would still probably not pass the Dodgers.
I don’t like the odds of any deal being made here. The Red Sox wouldn’t be freeing up much payroll if they take on most of the bloated Wil Meyers contract, why turn 1 year until salary relief into 3 years until salary relief? The Padres would be betting some strong prospects on a one year plan that depends an awful lot on if their young players can play up to their potential.
Naw there’s no way it’s that kind of high end prospect. Not close to that
Yeah you should get Betts for Mysers straight up right ?
I’m not a Padres fan. No one trades Gore for 1 year of Betts. Silliness. Myers is bad value obviously but that doesn’t even approach the trading Gore range
Whole deal idea doesn’t make sense
There ya go… not any of the Pads top 5 prospects
I don’t think it makes sense for Boston….if SD can unload all of Myers contract and avoid dealing any top 5 prospects….it’s definitely worth it even if Betts only plays 1 year in SD….
Haven’t reviewed a recent valuation of both teams’ prospects, but I’m guessing prospects #6-15 in SD’s farm would be considerably higher in Boston’s. I could be wrong, just going my what I recall both teams’ farms ranking from last year.
Dumbo traded Boston farm for Kimbrel and Pomeranz
Dumbo traded for a World Series, and the Sale trade depleted the farm, not Kimbrel and Pompom. It hurts but you would do it again knowing there is a ring waiting for you, tell me I’m wrong!
Exactly, smallball. I’m a fan because I want to see good baseball with a reasonable frequency of world series contention. I deal with enough spreadsheets at my own job so I’ll leave getting excited about prospect rankings and future value projections to the front office.
No regrets on any of Dave’s moves because it culminated in the 2018 WS. Same goes for the Hanley Ramirez trade in 06. Sucked watching him waste his best years on the Marlins but we couldn’t have won the ’07 WS without Beckett and Lowell so it was worth it.
No, Gore is staying with the Padres. This trade won’t happen, as the padres would be idiots to part with their pitching prospects, and they don’t have the position player prospects needed to get Betts.
Yes. They would be idiots to part with their pitching prospects. Enter AJ Preller.
Do it.
– BVH
Lmao!
The Padres are no where close to the Dodgers. In fact the Dodgers farm is now even better than the Padres too.
What???? Lol dude go sit down in the corner you know nothing about baseball. #notyourgrandpaspadres
I knew Padre fans wouldn’t be ready to hear it haha. Dodgers undoubtedly have better postion player prospects. Padres pitching has a little more upside with Gore and Patino but the Dodgers have some very solid pitching proepcts too. Both very good farms but LA has a real track record of developing talent. Sorry its a hard pill to swallow Padre fans
Red Sox want PITCHING prospects not position prospects
According to the top farm systems, L.A. is third, Padres First, get up to speed before you make stupid comments
Those rankings are outdated. Baseball America just had 7 Dodger top prospects in top 100. Padres at 6.
Check your rankings again
amk3510….Padres with “TEN” in the top 150.
who cares Boston wont get high end pitchers from Dodgers or Padres.
Randy I’m with you, pitching not position. But Bloom may need to take Myers in order to dump Price.
The Dodgers have a perennially superior farm system and player development program. They always have, going back twenty or thirty years even.
Thats funny. Thanks for the good laugh.
Doesn’t matter. Preller doesn’t have to compete for the NLW, just needs to show progress and vie for a wild card spot.
Padres will leave NL West ribbons to the Dudgers. Wild Card enough for us. Padres will win a WS title before the Dudgers. 1989–nada. 1990, ’91, ’92, ’93, ’94, ’95, ’96, ’97, ’98, ’99, 2000, ’01, ’02, ’03, ’04, ’05, ’06, ’07, ’08, ’09, ’10, ’11, ’12, ’13, ’14, ’15, ’16, ’17, ’18, ’19—ZIP!!! Big stage wilters!!! Last two years they even had the LA City Council begging MLB to give them WS titles. Beyond pitiful.
Yeah, I don’t remember Preller saying anything in 2014 when he was hired saying anything about his goals being to attempt to contend for a wildcard within the next 6 years.
Hes decided trading away the farm now is a better move than leaving behind a few stud prospects he acquired so that his over due replacement has an easier job replacing him.
Betts is the most excruciatingly expensive win now at all cost piece available. Perfect match, for Boston. Maybe if he tosses in enough prospects to ship Myers away they will forget he ever signed him to that contract in the first place.
“Significant amount of prospect talent” does not equal Gore. That could easily mean quantity over quality, and as one of the top three systems in baseball, the Padres have talent to spare
Here’s the rub. Boston’s 40 man is full.
Oh, sure, come ST you get 1 spot back from pedey hitting the 60 day dl… until next offseason anyways.
But, that means a quantity over quality deal cuts negative for boston. You need 40 man slots to put these guys into, many of which coming from SD would need rule 5 protection. That means bumping an existing piece out, which, is actually an added cost to boston above the acquisition cost.
Reread the article.
Padres don’t need a year of Betts. Pay your own bills, Boston. The lowly Dudgers will take him off your hands for nothing in July. They still will choke it in a WS. The November calendar will find the LA Board of Supervisors petitioning MLB for an honorary WS title. The Dudgers will be denied because they have no honor and because panhandling is illegal in baseball
no, Padres still under 500 and have a lot of holes/bad players.
No chance the Sox make this trade unless:
1) Padres eat all or almost all of Myers contract
2) David Price (his entire contract) and a few (mid level) prospects are included
OR
3) High end ready major league ready (or close to ready) talent is included.
Sox can manage the tax for one more season and then just let Mookie walk and take the comp pick.
Sox have no interest in the Myers contract (close to $60 MM in negative value).
Mookie is valuable now (maybe $15-20 MM in surplus value this season?) and will be valuable at the deadline.
Padres could dump the Myers contract and make a run at the WC. If things don’t work out, they could flip Mookie to a contender and recoup some of those prospects and still have dumped the Myers contract.
For the Sox to lose $75 MM on the deal, the Padres are going to have to pay an incredibly high price.
Otherwise the Sox will just keep Mookie and revisit a deal at the deadline.
Gore nor Patino are included in any talks don’t worry
This would be huge. Oh snap.
Why can’t the Padres just wait until Betts becomes a FA? There’s no point in giving away prospects for a one year rental
Because Preller is on the hot seat this year.
He’s done a great job of building a farm. End compliments
He’s done a great job of building a farm. End compliments
Shhh don’t tell them
Everybody already knows—that’s why they keep asking for them in trade.
There is the point of playing games THIS SEASON. You can’t always be looking to the future. At some point you have to play in the present. I know it is a lot easier to imagine the future over seeing the present, but suck it up buttercup. It’s time to play with the big boys and see what you got.
That doesn’t mean giving up the future for one year where they probably still won’t win the division is wise. There is times where you need to take your shot. I don’t think this is it for the Padres, unless an extension is part of the deal.
Could they throw in an extension condition?
It would make more sense then
Betts has said on multiple occasions that he isn’t signing an extension. And what makes you think the Padres of all teams would be the ones that could change his mind? The “acquire a player in the last year of his contract and then try to extend him” strategy has never worked for Preller in the past.
Jim he may love the Padres. No pressure n the weather is gorgeous. IMO Mookie doesn’t like the microscope you’re under in Boston. No microscope in San Diego. He may sign there. Remember they traded a hurt Pom n supposedly not tell Boston, DD.
@pasha2k but how likely REALLY is that? And is that likelihood REALLY worth giving up the quality and quantity of prospects it would take to acquire him?
Again, Mookie has already stated a desire to go to the open market and the strategy you are suggesting has never worked for Preller in the past, and not for lack of trying.
IMO it’s far more likely that Mookie goes back to Boston after 2020.
@pasha2k but how likely REALLY is that? And is that likelihood REALLY worth giving up the quality and quantity of prospects it would take to acquire him?
IMO it’s far more likely that Betts goes back to Boston after 2020.
@pasha2k a lot of things MAY happen. How likely is that to happen?
No pressure, the weather is gorgeous, highest taxes in the nation (except for NJ).. U know, Florida teams have the 2 things named off as pluses, only one of the lowest taxed states in the nation, not to mention no need for safe spaces every 20′.
And he’s a player who has previously gone on record that he wants to be a free agent and the Preller-era Padres are a regime that has had difficulty retaining key players.
Sure, for $400 million. They can afford $90 million for him, Machado, and Hosmer and still field a team for $140 million. Ok, if you say so.
Johnsilver: I’m not convinced – all I’ve heard about SD weather has been fantastic. Florida on the other hand is 50/50. I wouldn’t say one can draw a comparison between Fla weather and SD weather, imho. Florida is really, really hot and humid, with loads of mosquitoes (it’s a swamp), but it is cheap to live, no doubt. As for high taxes though, he’s rich. The better motivation to go to SD would be their potential, because of their farm and rookie talent, imo. Who knows though, I’ll guess we shall see in the near future.
Rare to find a paragraph solely made of locker room cliches. Pretty impressive.
“It’s time to play with the big boys and see what you got.” Doyers have played with the big boys and Dudgers always get their lunch money stolen. Girlfriends too.
The Padres haven’t been competitive in decades, and even then it was brief.
The Padres have a problem with their prospects. A lot of the high end prospects are getting closer to having to be added to the 40 man roster. They have to start moving pieces around now before it becomes a problem and they start losing them in rule 5
Wooooow someone that actually might know what they are talking about.
Because they aren’t the Yankees and therefore aren’t gonna gonna tie up close to 700 million for 2 players over the next decade.
Because they’ve already wasted half a billion dollars on Hosmer and Machado.
Thanks, I couldn’t have posted a better reply to the Yankee troll talking about the 2 high priced contracts the Yanks have as compared to the 2 the Padres have….and by the way, one was a Cy Young winner and the other the National League MVP the year before he was acquired.
Cole never won the Cy Young
Not a troll. I think the Yankees contracts make perfect sense for the yanks. The Padres are a small market team and have wasted too much money as it is. That was my point.
Preller needs to make the playoffs to save his job. They went out and got Hosmer amd Machado with the belief they should be ready to compete now. They dont make the playoffs and Preller is gone.
That’s the smartest thing to do.
Besides Preller being on the hot seat they are expecting to contend this year and push for a postseason appearance, even if it’s just for the wild card. That may also factor into trading for Betts now, and not at the trade deadline, so they can at least attach a QO to Betts at the end if the year.
padres don’t have money in the budget to sign Betts long term.
If the padres relinquish Gore they’re absolutely dizzy
Yeah you cannot possibly trade Gore if you’re San Diego, which is why a deal like this probably won’t work.
That rotation has been a hot mess for years and it’s just finally starting to get the prospect reinforcements it needs. Gore is arguably the top pitching prospect in baseball, it’s insanity to trade him the offseason before he’s supposed to debut in the majors.
And Betts is arguably the best non-Mike Trout player in MLB. And Wil Myers is arguably the worst while being paid superstar money. You have to give to get.
No…. where….. close. They’ll give bottom of the top 100 guys for him at most
They’re going to give more than that with Wil Myers’ boat anchor salary hanging with him. It’s going to be 3 of those lower top 100 guys+ more quality. I would have to imagine. That’s 60 million bucks for a guy who is worth maybe 10 and Mookie Betts.
Really doesn’t make sense to me. I would think Price or maybe Eovaldi is sent back as well. .
People are forgetting that the Red Sox will likely be asking for young, controllable MLB players as well as prospects. Guys like Mejia, Paddack, and maybe even Lucchesi could very well be part of the asking price.
I’ll believe when I see it.
Mookie Stinks – According to urban dictionary mookie stinks are a turd. the word used to substitute turd used by Mister Mackey in South Park. Mmmmkay. Nothing to do with Mookie Betts.
Mookie Stinks
Blaylock? Yes
Take that back! Mookie Blaylock was awesome!
Everyone named Mookie is a certifiably awesome dude.
Mookie Wilson was next level. Ask Buckner (RIP).
Pearl Jam used to go by the name Mookie Blaylock
Pearl Jam sucks
Won’t argue that Vin
Man I wished I stunk like Mookie maybe they’d pay me 27 million
Mookie benefitted from Cora’s coaching in 2018.
You’re talking about trashcan Mookie, right?
Gore isn’t going anywhere for a rental and to unload Wil. Relax
That’s exactly the only way they are unloading Wil. Be scared.
No. This isn’t right at all
This is a Betts AND Price deal. It is the only way it works. The Padres are unwilling to add a full $57 million to this years payroll. That is why they are forcing Boston to take Myers back. If the trade is made, SD will end up taking all of Price’s contract and the Sox will end up with most to as little as half of Myers money. They will still be getting a huge drop in their luxury tax number. The prospects involved are almost entirely secondary. None of Padres top 5, which means no current top 100. I can see Morejon, Baez, Weathers or maybe Head or Hunt types of prospects going back. But make no mistake; if it happens, this trade will be all about money.
The “rental” is the second best rh hitter in baseball and the best right fielder.
@Javia – being majorly wrong again.
Price is NOT in the deal.
Myers is included? That return will be massive if they have to take on his deal.
Not necessarily..Price would probably be coming with Mookie..and his contract is even worse than Myers’
His contract isn’t worse than Myers. Price doesn’t suck.
Price is definitely NOT going to SD in the Betts trade.
Now he could go in a separate deal later on, but not here.
Wrong. Price is overpaid, but he’s still a good pitcher. Problem is he’s getting paid ace money when he’s not a legit ace anymore. Myers is garbage and getting paid All-Star money. Way, way worse contract to be stuck with.
If both players continue with last year’s performance, then Myers is providing no value and his whole $67 million contract is negative value. Meanwhile, David Price would look to provide $46 million total value on a $96 million contract. That means his contract is $50 million underwater. That is not a huge difference.
Myers, who will be 29 this season, put up a 0.5 WAR last year. About a $4.5 million value. He is owed $67 million.
Price, who will be 34 this season, put up a 2.0 WAR. About a $17 million value. He is owed $96 million.
If we assume no regression or improvement for either, then Myers will produce $13.5 million of value for $67 million, a difference of $56.5 million and Price $51 million in value for $96 million, a difference of $45 million.
Since it’s almost 100% certainty that a 34-36 year old pitcher will decline, then that is probably a pretty fair straight up deal.
Except myers was NEGATIVE war last season, and Price put up 2 war in half a season by the all star break before injury needing a cyst removed.
He was on pace for another typical 4 war season, and, beat the league average performance doing it.
Myers was a steaming pile of garbage over an entire season.
You want to project price/myers, ok. But do it with war over a full season, not when injured at the AS break for one guy.
Price has immensely more upside over myers, but, SD is unwilling to take price anyways so it’s moot.
Of the two, price contributes more to boston than myers by a ridiculous margin, especially because that move doesn’t get them below the cbt limit anyways.
There are a number of issues with Koamalu’s analysis I’d like to point out:
1. Henry has confirmed in recent comments that the mandate is for the team to remain competitive, so taking the owner at his word, even if they see value in escaping the remainder of the Price contract, they can’t trade him and remain competitive without acquiring a replacement.. I find it curious you don’t factor in any kind of replacement cost. The only FA pitcher remaining even close to Price’s level is Alex Wood, otherwise they would have to trade from an already thin farm system to acquire someone. So when you take this into account the financial relief would be nonexistent, so what’s the point of swapping these contracts?
2. Myers was 0.5 WAR by Fangraphs, but BBRef had him at -0.3. So let’s split the difference and say Myers is a replacement level 1B/corner outfield/DH bat. Which the Red Sox basically had already in recently DFA’ed Sam Travis, and can likely get at least that at a minimum from Chavis, Dalbec, or Casas, who do not get paid $20 million per year.
3. As Atl pointed out, Price put up his 2 WAR in essentially half a season. Over a full season, he is still a 3-4 WAR pitcher. There is nothing other than his age to assume any regression is imminent, Indicators like FIP, K%, and xFIP say he was as good as ever last year. By BABIP and ERA, he was unlucky. There was a spike in HR rate, but that was a league wide thing, and a spike in walk rate, but was dealing with an injury so of course he wasn’t his usual self in terms of control. Nothing in his statistical profile suggests an imminent drop off in his top line numbers.
4. At the same time, funny how you assume no regression for Myers, even though his K% has increased almost every year he’s been in the majors, his wOBA has fallen for like 4 years in a row, ISO has fallen for 3 straight years, makes soft contact on nearly 20% of his batted balls, and was already bad at making contact to begin with. Sure you can chalk some of that up to injuries he’s dealt with himself, but he looks like a longer shot than Price to repeat or improve upon last year’s performance.
5. As Atl mentioned, if we’re going to project their value, let’s be consistent about the amount of time we’re projecting each to play. Myers has been arguably as much or even more injury prone than Price the past few seasons, so you should either discount his projected playing time accordingly, or give Price the same generous assumption of a fully healthy season that you appear to give Myers. By projecting Price as a 2 WAR per year pitcher when in a full campaign he is a 3-4 WAR pitcher, even assuming he does not reach 200+ IP each of the next 3 seasons you are likely discounting his value by at least a couple wins and the millions of dollars of value that come with them.
The Padres are not one player away. Would be an asinine move for them to include a ‘a significant amount of prospect talent’ plus take on all/most of Price’s contact for 1 year of Betts. The Padres can’t be that stupid, can they?
But if they do nothing since they are not “one player away,” how exactly are they ever going to get to one player away? This is why you build a good farm. There are only so many roster spots. You are not going to fill them with your entire top 30 prospect list.
The problem is the lack of control for Betts. I wholeheartedly agree that building a good farm isn’t just for “rankings” so to speak, but being able to strike trades for big pieces when necessary.
And again, like you said, there are only so many rosters spots — SD is going to have to package some young players up at some point.
However this doesn’t seem like the time to acquire this particular player (Betts) — it’d be better to go after a guy with multiple years of club control.
Indeed. Especially when Betts has indicated that he is intent on reaching free agency and when the Padres can’t sign him anyway with the massive Machado contract on the books. No point in making a splash just for the sake of making a splash.
But if it doesn’t pan out you move Betts at the deadline to recoup some of the prospects you gave up for him. Plus you get a ‘quality’ starter to help with the younger arms in the rotation for the next three years.
Trade for Betts for one yr, give Sox three prospects (Not Gore or Patino) plus Myers Friars eat 40% of Myers contract for the next two yrs. Forget Price don’t need him.
@nowheretogobutup that won’t get it done. I get that you are delusional and think Myers has value but the GM’s all see him as a sunk cost.
You don’t unload half your farm for a year. You do that when your GM is scared for his Job. This team is not in the same league as the Dodgers with or w/o Mookie. They need to develop these young guys and try to help them contend next season. You’d have to be certifiably stupid to mortgage the future for Mookie Betts on THAT team. This isn’t like the Dodgers or Braves going to get him. If he had even 2 years of control I might agree that they should entertain it but that’s not the case.
The padres don’t train prospect they draft and wait then trade them after 1 yr.
Since Betts will only be a Padre for 2020, who else are they going to get to be that ONE PLAYER?
No reason to trade for 1 year of Betts unless he is that guy.
Might wanna go check the NL west vegas odds. They aren’t a player away they are a year away. If they add, they will be that much more dangerous.
They have a deep enough farm system to get him without giving up Gore, Patino, but I can’t see them being his top suitor in FA so why bother for one year? Unless they can unload Hosmers contract to the Red Sox, that’s more of a sunken cost then Myers surely
Padres are idiots to trade for him
*idiots not to
Wow. This would be the huge blockbuster trade we haven’t had this offseason.
Jfc Wil Myers is barely replacement level and that’s the only mlb-ready team being floated? This is gonna be bad
JDM replaces Mookie in RF, Myers goes to full time DH. Boston might win anyway, as they do from time to time.
Martinez is not playing the field so Myers is doing it
There’s gotta be something else big involved in the deal for me to accept that. You’re giving up a top 5 player in the league because you’re penny pinching and the best you can get in return is wil Myers? Give me a break
Myers doesnt have the bat to be a DH on a competitive AL squad.
He hits low average and maybe 20 hrs a year. That doesn’t cut it. Even for a 1b that’s below what you want to see in power/average.
Peraza got dumped by the reds for nothing, and offered 3m by bloom with the same war production/upside potential as myers, and thats some realism SD needs to contend with.
no way preller gets mookie without giving up gore. Bloom is definitely saying gore or no deal
Then no deal. 1000 times over, plus 1.
The concept of that is kind of crazy considering how deep SD’s system is. Personal preference but I feel like acquiring both Abrams and Patino would be better than acquiring Gore alone. Those two are both top 25 prospects and it spreads risk around in case someone busts.
SD has like 6 or 7 top 100 prospects and others that just graduated from that list, I feel like you could definitely build a package without Gore.
None of the Padres top 5 prospects. That is what the article says. That means no Gore, Patino, Abrams, Campusano or Trammell.
Dream big little chicken. Dream big.
This is absolutely crazy and I’m a fan of neither team. There’s no way 1 year of Betts with get Gore or Patino. None.
No way is Betts worth Gore that’s a dumb comment and AJ would never make that deal.
Wasn’t it Preller who made the Trea Turner trade?
Trading a $27 million Mookie Betts for Will Myers who is owed $67.5 million through 2022 makes little sense for the Red Sox unless something ridiculous (Gore, Abrams, and more) is going back. That of course makes little sense for the Padres.
Price is still owed like $96M over 3 years right? He’s gotta be included otherwise the financials don’t make much sense for Boston
Padres shouldn’t take Price and his contract. Definitely not worth it.
Ditto the Red Sox and Myers
I don’t think that’s on the table now. I don’t think San Diego had the money for that. So now they are talking about getting Betts for that silly Myers contract, and to even it out are tossing in a blue-chipper or two.
The Sox are in AAV land…..Myers AAV is only $13.8m….but saves the Padres the $22m; Boston doesn’t care what they actually spend, they only care about AAV…this would be $14m less toward the CBT amount paid
Also, they can outright Myers and remove his salary from the 40 man total altogether (like Craig & Castillo). The Padres doing the same doesn’t do them any good.
While I’m here, Pedroia needs to be sat down & explained what the benefit would be for the team to outright him…another $13m off the roster, and could potentially bring him back if he’s ever healthy.
So, I’ve just saved the Red Sox $27m off the luxury tax total.
Salary no longer gets removed from cbt by passing through waivers off the 40man. That loophole was closed after Castillo in the last cba.
so either gore would be in the deal or the other 9 of their top 10 would be in the deal
And you’re wrong. None of the Pads top 5.
LOL Gore is worth two of Betts
Gore won’t be worth 2 Betts in San Diego.
Padres would be stupid to give up high end prospects for Mookie, 1 year away from FA. It’s highly unlikely a Betts acquisition gets SD to the post season, and highly unlikely Betts resigns there leaving them with no Mookie and no prospects in 2021 and beyond
But Padres are stupid, they prove it almost ever year.
Dark days in Red Sox Nation. Highest payroll in the game and we’re letting Willie Mays walk out the door in his prime. Shame. 2020 is the start of a new curse.
Willie Mays? Hahaha
Nope. They’ll be fine. He was walking anyway, might as well hold the door for him and get something back.
No way the Red Sox take Myers unless the Padres take Price. Especially if the Padres are also getting Betts in the trade.
According to Buster Olney’s latest article the Red Sox are indeed pairing the two– you get one, you get the other
Bloom does that and there would be riots on his hands.
Of course his moves thus far appear to be of the bumbling idiot variety so it may well happen.
Or Eovaldi. The money matches with Eovaldi. Lower AAV too.
Taking back Myers and not including Price … absolutely the ask is gonna be a couple high end prospects.
I don’t see it, even dumping Myers contract. It would have to be two young players from where they have depth like OF and SP.
Blah, blah, blah…
I have been talking about this all winter long! Trading Betts/Price to the Padres in exchange for Wil Myers is the most feasible and logical swap Boston has in any scenario. This is a match made in baseball heaven
Who’s the prospects going to Boston?
Abrams or patrino is what Boston should ask for first followed by Baez. Anything else is a throw in. Price still has tons of value as a player- it’s his contract that sucks.
Boston doesn’t care about paying a tax. They’ll also throw money in deal if feasible but if they aren’t getting quality back there’s no way they trade. Quality is abrams or Baez
None of the Padres top 5 prospects. That is what the article says. That means no Gore, Patino, Abrams, Campusano or Trammell.
Boston pays off the difference between Myers contract annually and Price’s, Padres send two good prospects to Sox for Betts.
padres would be fools to do this! but then they are!
Machado and Betts in the same line up ? That’s heavy
Plus Tatis Jr., can’t forget him
Is Tatis Jr ever not injured?
He’s played one season, isn’t it a little early to label him injury prone?
Was injury prone in the minors too
Tatis, Betts, Pham, Machado that would be a good offensive lineup for the Friars
Forgot tatis in there dammm
I wouldn’t do it but ya that’s a move
Actually this deal – Betts for Myers and some prospects – makes sense to me.
San Diego gets out of the Myers contract, gets a massive bat for a run at glory (which their GM and ownership desperately want), and it costs them a couple of prospects. Even if it’s Gore it might be worth it. Think about it – they are getting rid of Myer’s $60+ million and getting an MVP for a year. It’s not like they don’t have other prospects coming up.
Red Sox get some desperately needed blue-chip prospects, get some salary relief for this year (assuming it’s $13.8 million) to help get under the tax. They have an opening at first and perhaps Myers needs a change of scenery or can hit better at Fenway.
It’s a risk for both sides, but it seems like a solid trade to someone who doesn’t root for either team.
The Sox can do better than “prospects” and poison Myers for Betts.
That savings doesn’t get boston even close to under the tax. They need to move about 35m. Giving up mookie got trash like myers and only saving 14m?
Someone needs to hold an intervention with bloom and let him know moves like that are bad for his career
And it won’t be someone like Gore. We can put that to rest.
It’s either that or take Price
Well, I’m not a Pads fan. And Price could be in it, but the article says no. Betts isn’t bringing a top 50 prospect, even with Myers.
The article doesn’t say “no, Price is not part of this trade”. It said the Padres didn’t want to do it before. That may have been because Bloom was trying to get rid of Price’s entire contract($96million) AND trying to get the Padres to include 2 premium prospects. If Bloom has figured out that he isn’t getting premium prospects while dumping huge money on another team, then Price could be in it. Myers going to Boston is essentially just to even out the roster spots. The Padres will absolutely be taking on money in this deal. They are unwilling to take on all $96 million of Price along with the $27 million of Betts. They are trying to figure out how much of Myers contract they will be taking back. $123 million(Price and Betts) minus how much of Myers $60 million.?
With Myers he absolutely is. Betts to Myers is about a $111m dropoff in surplus value. That means including Gore would still make it a win for the Padres. If the Sox really just wanted to dump Betts, they could do it right now without taking back any underwater contracts.
Take a look above. None of the Padres top 5 prospects are in the deal. And no one would trade Gore for one year of Betts
Ben if you’re taking on a bad 60 million dollar contract they’re going to have to start with about 3 of those lower top 100 guys to get Betts. Teams don’t take on 60 million dollars of deadweight and get Mookie Betts for sub standard guys. You’re way overvaluing how teams value prospects. The Angels just dealt last years 14th pick for 12 million bucks. You’re talking about 5x that for Myers and also getting Betts
It just doesn’t make sense. I can’t see that happening. The Red Sox don’t need to take on Myers’ money to get top 100 guys for Betts. They’ll get a package with at least 1 + other quality prospects without Myers.
How is Betts to Myers a $111 million drop off? Betts is worth a whopping $21 million in surplus value now. Myers has $39 million negative value. Put them together and you have a $60 million difference. That is barely over half of your $111 million.
@javia- in what world is a negative war player, who in 7 years has accumulated just over 9 war combined (averaging under 1.4 war/season during his PEAK production years) worth 29.5m in positive value over 3 years when he turns 30 in 2020?
Myers is owed 68.5m/3 yrs or 87.5m/4 yrs. You mean to tell me he could pull down a 10m/yr 3 yr deal as a free agent right now?
Myers is, optimistically, negative 60m in value all by himself.
Gore will never be traded he’ll win 15 to 20 games annually.
Because apparently pitcher wins are an actual stat now
Boston, you are getting verrry sleepy.
You want Wil Myers, he is the next Ted Williams.
His contract is a steal, you do not need cash to offset his value, you do not need prospects.
When I snap my fingers, you will wake and call AJ Preller and buy Wil a plane ticket.
^^ Yankees Fan ^^
^^ Yankees Fan ^^
I’d certainly target Campusano if I were Boston
Myers. Gag.
Padres give up Myers Patino Owens Naylor and Mejia for Betts and Price I would be ok with that. Work out a long term deal for Mookie to stay have Price mentor Gore for a few years. At some point the Padres have to get rid of some talent and as long as the core players are still young why not? Can you imagine a lineup with Tatis Machado Betts Pham Grisham just as your top Five batters… pitchers are young but need someone like price to talk to. It would be a good trade
What makes you so sure Betts would sign a long term deal with the Padres?
I’m not sure. But the Red Sox also kno he’s walking. The padres have a better chance to sign him then the Red Sox when he hits the market. Thou that’s not saying much if the padres can bring him in prior and let him see the internals and the workings they have a leg up since it would be a new team and a massive contract which would almost be like if he became a free agent anyways atleast the padres already brought him into a system he feels good about. If he doesn’t feel good then padres are screwed lol
“The padres have a better chance to sign him then the Red Sox when he hits the market.”
How do you figure? If anything I’d say the Red Sox have the best chance of anyone in MLB.
“… if the padres can bring him in prior and let him see the internals and the workings they have a leg up.”
Nope. That strategy doesn’t work for the Padres. It has backfired in a huge way on them twice already. And with players that hadn’t already stated their desire to test the open market like Betts has. Granted Preller doesn’t seem to be capable of learning from his mistakes so it honestly wouldn’t surprise me if he tries it again.
Has anyone else thought that this just may be a little “screw you!” to Betts along with being a way to keep his price down next year? Look what Petco did to Machado, and really every hitter on the Padres. If he goes to SD there is no way he will be competing for MVP.
Keep in mind the whole getting Myers off the books even if it’s for a rental of one year on a player like betts makes a lot of sense. Come trade deadline if betts ain’t gunna reup and your not winning then flip betts to a contender who’s willing to give you top prospects to replace the lower prospects you gave up. Now Myers isn’t on the books and you regained all your prospects
That’s a nice logical idea but unless you’re giving them the top echelon of your minor league system, the Red Sox are going to want their trading partner to take David Price as well. So, be prepared to have a Will Myers swapped for 3yrs/$96M.
Betts wants to have his time in free agency. He doesn’t want to be tied down and miss the chance to be courted by teams.
You’re dreamin Padres would never give up those prospects for a one yr rental
@jussayin619 no, the Padres are not going to be able to flip Betts at the deadline (when he has 2-3 months of control left and can’t be QO’d) for a similar prospect package than the one they’d have to give up now to acquire a full season of Betts (plus the right to QO him) and shed Wil Myers. That simply isn’t happening. They will be able to regain SOME of their prospects. Not all. Not even most.
Ain’t gonna happen. I’d rather stay within the realm of possibility and trade for Marte.
It would just take one other seriously interested team to get the Padres to include Gore and get this deal done. Short of signing an extension, I don’t think 1 year of betts + qo draft pick comes anywhere close to being worth it! Not at the loss of an already groomed blue chipper!
No. It wouldn’t. Padres won’t include Gore. Stop it aIready.
It’s either that or take Price
It would just take one other seriously interested team to get the Padres to include Gore and get this deal done. Short of signing an extension, I don’t think 1 year of betts + qo draft pick comes anywhere close to being worth it! Not at the loss of an already groomed blue chipper!
Gore will be a 20 game winner in 2021, he’s worth three of Betts
So… gore is capable of putting up almost 33 war in a year? Cause that’d be 3 times the potential of betts….
Betts put up a 6.8 WAR last year. I will go ahead and round that to 7. He has 1 year of control. 3 × 7=21 WAR. Since Gore has 6 years of control he would only need to average 3.5 WAR to be worth 3 times as much. Besides which he will be much, much cheaper.
Betts had a down year last year. Year before he was almost 11war. 2016 was 9.7 war.
So if we lowball the 4 consecutive year GG winner, who was mvp in 2018, you can kinda tell barring anything disastrous he’s a high war producer.
Gore hasn’t done anything yet. Might he be good? Looks like it. But still no track record against mlb hitting and every bit a gamble. I’d take the over on betts posting more than 6.8 war or even 7 war in his contract year considering his past production.
(Also Cora won’t be around keeping starters from playing in ST, so guys should hit the ground running in 2020)
War does have limits for a pitcher, but, putting up 3.5-4 war as a SP means you’re an instant all-star and likely getting cy votes. Thats a lot to expect out of Gore from the gate.
If you are trying to present Betts as a player whose value is 10-11 WAR, why shouldn’t I present Gore as a 4 WAR player? And btw, being worth 3.5 WAR gives him TRIPLE the value of Betts. Even if I credit Betts with a 11 WAR value (which 90% of people would bet against), that would be $88 million minus his $27 million salary to give you $61 million in excess value. That is IF he pretty much equals his ALL TIME, HUGE outlier of a season.
If Gore only puts up 2.0 WAR per year, which is a GIGANTIC under bet on someone with his talent, should we do the math? 2.0 × 6years = 12 WAR = $96 million in value. He is practically free for his first 3 years, and a 2 WAR pitcher is not going to be making any more than (and likely quite a bit less than) $24 million in his 3 arbitration years. So subtract $24 million from $96 = $72 million. That gives Gore $11 million in value over Betts. And that is only IF Betts equals his career highs next year and Gore seriously underperforms his projections. So Betts at his all time best for 1 year doesn’t equal Gore for 6 years even if Gore practically falls on his face.
It’s 6 years to 1. Betts would have to be 6 times better than Gore’s average year next year, and that is only if they are making the same money, which they aren’t.
What prospects would the Sox he looking to get outside of Gore?
Take a look at their top 10 prospect list as well as players drafted in rounds 1-3 for the last couple years…those guys.
If it is ownership won’t approve that trade.
Wrong comment to add to my bad
Man Betts for gore and a couple other top prospect guys I’d listen for sure if I’m Boston
Seems like a no-brainer plus it means keeping more of its core long term. Betts is awesome but no longer a cheap awesome. That said, I think mookie will have a monster 2020 playing for that contract!
What would a deal even look like? Betts for Myers and 4 prospects of Boston choice not named Gore? High price for 1 year of Betts and to undo the Myers mistake. In reality Hosmer is why Myers contract looks so bad. Myers did ok at 1B.
Far too much.
Remember the last time the Padres went for it all in the off-season? Yea that didn’t pay off
Yep. I remember that. Preller’s job is probably at risk though. Maybe he is going to roll the dice again.
Preller should have been fired a long time ago.
How many prospects will it take for the Sox to give up Betts AND take back Myers?
ALL of them
Quite literally everyone not named Paddack, Tatis or Gore under team control, pack your bags.
*snores. Or nobody in their top 5
If the Padres trade Gore, how will they fight Manbear Pig ? (South Park Reference)
It’s a failure if you feel the need to cite your reference.
Players like Betts are just really difficult to move. My knee-jerk impression was that if there is a team that could make it happen, it’s the Padres. Preller might be desperate enough to move the needed pieces and he definitely has them to do it.
But beyond that surface evaluation, it gets more complicated. Until otherwise clarified, you have to assume Gore, Patino and Paddick are unavailable. You ALSO have to figure Trammell isnt available since the Padres so specifically traded to get him while he was still a prospect.
More importantly than all that is the fact that the Red Sox are going to contend next year so they are probably looking for talent that is going to improve the team for 2020 which the Padres might struggle to do as they WANT to contend in 2020 and were pretty bad in 2019.
This is a deal you do if you’re on the verge of a championship. It makes no sense for the Padres to get the itchy finger when 2021 is the more realistic playoff window. Gore and Patino will be on the 21 roster, but Mookie will be in LA or somewhere else
Padres are a business. Adding Betts puts butts in the seats and sells Jerseys. Price will help the starting staff for not much more than what they are paying Myers per year. When Betts walks at the end of the year, you just lowered payroll by 30mm plus get a pick.
Boston knows they sell out regardless of who is on next year’s team. Not many Boston fans buying jersey of a walking player. Myers is not the glove of Moreland, but may be expected to provide more offense. Plus they move Price’s contract (30mm per year), drop 30mm in Mookies contract and add several of what San Diego considers its mid tier prospects (top tier for other teams). Having retooled, Boston has some spending room for adding at deadline or next fall. Not bad for moving a rental and what fans consider a bad contact.
“The package of prospects the Red Sox are evidently willing to accept as part of a deal for Betts does not include any of the Padres’ top five minor leaguers, and that is not the hang-up in the potential trade“ – Kevin Acee from the San Diego Tribune.
The article goes on to talk about how the fact that Myers is owed $61M and Mookie only $27M is really the problem here. That actually makes a lot of sense because Myers is dead weight and that’s a lot to take on for 3 years even if his AAV is lower. Even if you get a couple of prospects at the back end of the top 100 the finances are kinda a mess.
It’s clearly gonna be Price + Mookie
Ahahahaah they aren’t going to get any of SD’s top prospects even if they’re taking on any of Myers’ deal?
I mean Campusano is technically their 6th best prospect and he’s like ~80th overall so it’s not like the return would suck. Naylor graduated off prospect lists last year I think but that’s another top 100 type guy not in their “top 5” either. Sox could still get a haul here without any of those 5 going in the deal.
I know i know it’s the Padres and they probably have the best farm system in the game. Their depth guys are as good as a few teams best prospects. But you’re trading mookie Betts, don’t settle for any teams 6th best guy.
Campusano is #5 now that Edwards is gone. Actually, he is going to be #4 when the 2020 rankings come out on Jan. 25.
Red Sox trade Betts and Price for Myers and 2 of Padres top prospects not named Gore,Patino or Abrams and also add young major league ready fill ins…(Naylor, France, Margot).
Red Sox get under tax threshold and save money in long term while getting “Top” prospects. Padres cut into that 40 man finally, add veteran lefty though”expensive” but they get rid of Myers contract and make a run at wild card. Worst case is Padres dont have strong season and trade Betts for another top prospect at deadline. Decent gamble when on hot seat. ♂️
Red Sox are not trading Price in this deal, as stated if you actually read the article and not the headline.
I really doubt Gore gets dealt for one year of Betts. However, I feel like Abrams and Patino are the likeliest to head to Boston assuming a deal goes down, although I wouldn’t discount the possibility of Naylor being apart of the deal as well.
Myers, Patino, Naylor, Arias, and Miller for Mookie and Price could work. Not sure I’d do it from the Padres’ perspective, but if AJ wants to go all in, that’s his move. Then you’re looking at:
Tatis
Pham
Machado
Betts
Hosmer
Mejía
Margot?
Profar
With a rotation of
Paddack
Gore (who I think starts the season in the big leagues)
Lamet
Price
Davies/Lucchesi
That’s close to a playoff team with the Padres bullpen.
Price is not in this deal, as stated in the article.
Read the article again Strike Four. It did not say that.
Javia I have, many times. You are arguing a false point, what a waste of time.
Fine. Why don’t you go ahead and quote the part of the article which states that Price is not involved. Until then I will just ignore you.
Padres have 4 automatic outs with that lineup.
Trades talks getting stronger, Padres top 5 not included, one big holdup remaining. Me like
Sox fans gonna be pissed lmao
I am so okay with trading Betts. The Sox have to hit the reset button. The overspending will cost draft picks. Trading a guy who had no intention of staying is the thing to do. No issue here. Not a fan of taking on another contract, but I trust that they will do what they need to do.
The Padres are certainly stupid enough to make this deal.
There is no way the Padres would trade Gore or Paddock in a deal for Betts and quite frankly I don’t see a good fit between the two teams.
If the Red Sox traded Betts and took back at a minimum it would have to be Patino plus maybe Trammell or Morejohn. I don’t see the Padres trading Patino and without him it doesn’t work. I just don’t see them matching up. Keep Betts and let’s see what happens especially if Patino is not included.
“Took back Myers”
Nah, Morejon, Baez, Weathers, Miller, Ornelas and Myers for Betts is about right, and being SD’s top 5 is off the table and theyre still talking, thats probably what the deal will look close like if it happens. Padres fans need to understand that Myers deal has negative value, hence the extra two prospects Betts would not get in a different, non-contract-dump scenario.
Pass
Not even close lol
Your dreamin maybe two prospects for Betts plus Margot but Friars want to dump Myers also.
$5mil. That’s what I’d be happy with paying Wil Myers. $5mil.
Overpay
lol. Betts for Myers and prospects is a complete garbage trade for Red Sox.
Why? Betts is gone at the end of the year, at least they get something for him other than the one draft pick for offering him a QO.
You talk like the Red Sox will lose Betts for sure. I’m guessing if Boston really wants Betts they will be the best offer especially if they reset this year. I don’t think Betts is gone is a foregone conclusion. I think it’s a higher chance since Bloom and not DD is the decision maker but not a fore gone conclusion. If the bidding gets crazy I do hope you they pass and I think Bloom will if the bidding gets crazy.
Red Sox should try and pull a Chapman with Betts. He doesn’t seem like a player who would be too offended by being traded, especially if the Sox come back and offer him fair market value next offseason.
Myers is a big BIG multi year liability.
Just to unload him should cost 3 prospects
Deal. Josh Mears, Anderson Espinoza and Jacob Nix.
padres make zero sense for 1 yr unless they re sign
Just go sign Kevin Pillar and get and sign two of three of Chacin,Vargas, Aaron Sanchez , then head into 2020 see what happens . No need to overspend until the deadline on the Padres
Red Sox don’t make to many bad moves and have plenty of money to throw around. The return will be better than expected
Click bate article. The article says a trade is unlikely. If rumors are true, the Padres wont trade their top prospects.
*bait not bate
It was also updated to say none of the Padres top 5 prospects are on the table, and Boston is still on the phone, so…..
No way there’s a deal where Red Sox take on most of Myers contract and get no major prospects back. Such a deal would make zero sense for Boston.
“..on the table (no comma) and Boston is still on the phone, so..”
Conjunctions aren’t used following comma’s.
In depends on the sentence. If it is a compound sentence, you put a comma before the coordinating conjunction and then finish the next independent clause.
Is the comma possessive in this scenario?
@salarycapmyth you are wrong, but also punctuation and grammar are not usually relevant in anonymous comment threads, but spelling always is relevant
@NOBumgarnerEqualsNONLCS gets it
Padres could flip Trent Grisham into something nice if they get Betts.
Still not even close to the Dodgers, who already have Lux and May about to turn into elite superstars, to add to all their other elite superstars.
Dodgers are not winning a World Series!,Not even with Trout,Acuña and Soto added to their current roster.
Not a Padres fan but Lux and May aren’t any more likely to turn into elite superstars than Tatis and Gore.
48 hrs tops.
Dump Myers contract and padres can be bigger spenders next FA class
1800 Got Junk is just a call away.
Pass big time with the new info.
There’s no way the Red Sox trades Betts and takes on Wil Myers contract unless there are two elite, ‘can’t miss’ prospects in the deal. Betts is making $27M vs Myers $21M so this does nothing for the Sox and there CBT issue in 2020 and adds $42M over 2021 & 2022. So either Price has to be included in this deal too or Gore or Paddock would need to be one of the prospects for the Sox to give up a generational talent in Betts AND take on 3 years of a bad contract in Myers.
The skeletal trade makes no sense but for the luxury tax purposes Wil Myers’ AAV is only $13.83 million (not the $21 million). Myers signed a six-year, $83 million contract in January 2017.
He’s still a 3 yr, 20+mil/season guy who produces at a 5m/season rate.
Mookie is a 5-6war, top-5 in mlb positional player talent. Thays an easy 30m/yr contract value.
To involve just those two, you have to imaging SD eats significant money on myers, and, 5-7 top 25 prospects headed back.
Myers wouldn’t even get a major league contract if he were a FA this offseason.
The padres have a one year window for contention. It works out perfectly!
Betts and Price for Myers Cordero Morejon Baez Miller and Bolanos.
I don’t see how Betts for Myers works without the Padres 5 top prospects or significant MLB players. I deal like this is usually 3-4 prospects/young players. You can’t make up Betts’ positive value and MYERS’ negative value and trade their 6-9 prospects
As a “realistic” Sox fan… I actually kind of like this deal — that is assuming the “significant amount of prospect talent” coming back to Boston in the deal is just that – significant. The Red Sox most likely aren’t going to resign Betts beyond this season and getting 2 or 3 high end prospects for him in addition to salary relief would be a big bonus to the ‘retooling’ club. Myers is also an intriguing option for the Red Sox to offset some of the cost for the acquiring club because while he is in fact owed $20+M/year the luxury tax number is significantly lower ($13.3M as mentioned above in the article – due to the AAV calculations) that means that the Sox who don’t really care about the $ but need to dip below the tax threshold to avoid penalties (taxes AND DRAFT PICKS) would be able to get away with carrying a guy making $20+M but having only a portion of that count against their quest to get below the tax line. It’s pretty creative and assuming Betts is gone after 2020 regardless — I think the opportunity to acquire multiple high end prospects for him is something the Sox should absolutely consider. And Myers, while underperformed lately, is still young enough and talented enough that he could still turn things around — that’s not to say he’ll replace Mookie Betts by any stretch of the imagination BUT he could be a solid bounce back candidate and someone who could conceivably be a decent Lineup piece going forward for the Red Sox. I say — if the prospect haul is worth it… go for it Bloom!
Nice take ! I think it goes down too. Red Sox are a shrewd negotiators yet SD has the leverage. Who will prevail ??
This one I disagree with. Sox aren’t at risk of losing draft picks this year due to salary, and, there’s no free agents left worth signing that would push them over.
Saving 14m to lose mookies elite oitput while taking on the albatross of myers sucking up space and being untradable for the next 3 seasons just has zero value.
You’d need a massive haul of talent coming back from SD… if not their top 5 prospects then all of 6-10 plus some mlb talent and a 15-25 rated range guy or two.
Mookie alone is easily worth 3 talented prospects, two of which need to be cant-miss variety.
To move myers, if at least 15m/yr isn’t paid down, it costs 3 prospects alone to cover the underwater o-value nature of his deal. If he were a FA he’d be looking at a minor league deal with ST invite this off season.
You actually think they’re going to trade 5-7 prospects plus Wil Meyers + cash for 1 player?
1 year of Betts is NOT worth 3+ top-tier prospects…
1 year of Mookie isn’t worth 1 can’t miss prospect. This trade represents a reasonable return – 2-3 really good prospects, like top 75-100 and 100-200 type guys.
The MYERS wrinkle and the Padres crazy minors depth makes this interesting because the Padres can keep throwing top 250 players at the Sox until the MYERS contract doesn’t look so bad. I could see this trade working if the Padres pay down MYERS a little so the Sox are closer to tax reset and the Padres send back 4-5 players, all with some value. The Sox can solve their tax problem and reload the farm. If they want to bid on Mookie in a year they can and lose a pick.
In a trade, a players value is NOT the biggest factor. The condition of the trade market is biggest factor. Therefore if this trade goes down- the largest off set of value is not betts as he’s worth his contract that comes with flexibility after the season. His value is one top tier to mid level player. All of the value in the trade comes from absorbing Myers contract. Which will undoubtedly send some very talented players back to Boston. No way it goes down w SD not tapping into their top 5 prospects
The Sox just need to trade Price to the Mets for Bobby Bonillas deferred contract and they will be all set!
Everyone know the Padres are stupid but they WON’T give up more than ONE top 5 prospects although they might send a bundle of much lower lights.
Which should make the Sox happy but the expectations are too high: Boston won’t compete in 2020 — get over it.
Clean up your payroll, get some futures, move on.
If they aren’t taking back Price it’s either that or no trade
So Betts to Myers is about a $111m difference in surplus value. But maybe the Red Sox will take a little less because Myers’ luxury tax hit is lower than his salary.
$111 million? How do you figure? That would only happen if Myers is worth zero WAR for the rest of his contract( which would put them $61 million behind) and Betts puts up a 9.5 WAR. Neither of those things is happening. Get your parents to help you with your math.
Well, MYERS was worth negative WAR last year. So there is that
You do realize myers is owed 68.5m/3 (including 1m buyout) or 87.5/4 right? Not only 60m?
If the Padres can make this deal and not include Gore, Patino, Abrams, Trammell or Campusano, then as a Padre fan I am all for it.
Even if the Red Sox took on all of Myers contract, they would be saving $46M dollars next year and $19M a year over the next 2 years as far as the luxury tax goes if Price is added to Betts which seems the only way this deal would make any sense for the Red Sox. And seeing as the Red Sox print money, covering Myers $22M over 3 years shouldn’t be an issue should it?
Ah, don’t think the Red Sox exactly “print money”….and if you doubt this, just ask their owner John Henry who is trying to get the team under the lux tax and is considering trading his best player to do it….doesn’t exactly reek of the printing money temperament.
We should call the Padres and Red Sox and puke on the phone.
This deal sounds like betts for myers cash and prospects.
The article says the hold up is how much of myers contract will Boston take on.
I think myers is worth 5m to 8m in value. Sox gm was from the Ray’s that the padres traded for him from. So maybe he has a special liking to him more then others.
So with myers low avv luxury tax hit and the padres eating a chunk of his salary it could look financially beneficial to the sox.
It top 5 aren’t involved in could see something like this.
Myers + 10 to 15m per season, campusano, morejon, weathers, arias and even others.
There is a laundry list of high upside talent the padres could send to stock the sox system. Many which are near mlb ready.
I dont think the padres can add another 27m to their payroll so it comes down to prospects vs dollars.
Myers wouldn’t get a major league deal if he were a FA this offseason
They aren’t giving away Gore, Patino, or Paddack. They will probably land highly touted prospect CJ Abrams (SS), Morejone, Myers, and or Trammell or another highly touted pitching prospect. They aren’t winning, they can eat myers contract easily and still rise in the Milb rankings while they add MLB pieces over the next season. It’s actually good for both team. This is a one year rental, they don’t have the control to be asking anything other than that…. the Myers contract would be in good faith to help really.
Except the sox don’t need a ss prospect. Both 3b and ss are blocked at the mlb level for at least 5-6 years…
Not to mention the talent coming back is on the light end considering SD wants to unload the full value of myers deal.
Look at the update. Not even this
Boston should walk away if the prospects aren’t top 5.
Trammell and CJ are both top 5… 1.gore 2.trammell 3.patino, 4.cj abrams.
Completely agree. You don’t trade an MVP player in his prime to cut salary (when you’re the second highest spending team in the league no less!) and not get back some blue chips in return. Fingers crossed Boston doesn’t do something asinine…
Ha ha why Betts is a rental for one yr., no deal, what’s he going to do win 20 games for the Padres in 2020, LOL
This guy will play his life out making 27 million in San Diego, because it’s a contract year. This would be a smart move if they can give up nothing to get him.
This trades makes no sense for red sox or padres honestly.
A. Red sox could get better capital from other teams if padres arent dropping in anyone from top 5 and taking on will meyers bad contract
B. Historically padres prospects stink (dont mention tatis because he was white sox)
C.padres wont be able to resign him (hosmer and machado already make up half there team salary) even having him for 1 year wont get them in playoffs
As a dodgers fan I can safely sit back and watch padres mess this up and be irrelevant for another 20 years. I would be surprised if red sox would take a deal of this low talent wise and wil meyers, that might be the most moronic thing done in awhile.
Look at this guy. His team has shown they are just not mentally sound enough to be winners. Lose every year, even with teh best team in baseball and he’s giving advice to other teams.
Raise your standards amigo, you deserve better
Go back to smoggy LA nothing works from LA as proven over six yrs. of NO WS and a $210M payroll
The Padres can’t even be competitive.
Make the playoffs one year you troll
We one the world series this century
So Betts plus taking on Myers’ contract doesn’t even net a top 5 system prospect? It’s getting a little ridiculous how much teams are hoarding their prospects, and it’s clearly having a negative effect on the trade market. Something has to change.
How about
Betts+Price
For
Myers+Morejon+Campusano+Potts?
Nobody covers any salaries.
Padres add $59M to payroll for 2020 but lose Myers so payroll is now $182M, and then $32M in each 21 and 22 (assuming they don’t extend Betts). Red Sox get under tax by $27-28M ($-17M now, lower Price $31M, Betts $27M, add Myers $13.8M).
Red Sox lower payroll in 2020 to $191.6M.
Padres new roster
SS – Tatis Jr
LF – Pham
CF – Betts
3B – Machado
1B – Hosmer
RF – Grisham
C – Mejia
2B – Profar
Pitcher
Bench has Hedges, France, Garcia, Margot, and Olivares
Rotation
1. Paddack
2. Price
3. Richards
4. Davies
5. Lucchesi/Lamet
I dunno if the Padres can afford that sort of a payroll though. Red Sox could conceivably kick in up to $20M in 2020 to cover the short term payroll hit. Though, Padres probably can’t extend Betts.
Let’s be honest, the Padres won’t be able to afford Betts.
Padres want to keep their payroll at $140M tops, so your plan is not acceptable
Yeah, I don’t know their budget, but they are already at around $150M right now. And if they intend to add Betts, he wouldn’t be a salary wash, that’s for sure.
Lamet is arguably better than David Price is currently. Certainly can’t bump him for Price. Lucchesi would be the one, I suppose. I really don’t think the Padres need that money on their books though. If they did that deal, I’d probably look to shop half or more of Price’s deal elsewhere. The rotation gets a lot more crowded when Patino and Gore are ready in ‘21.
Maybe a team like the Angels, who missed on SP’s, would be willing to pay 50 +/- of Price’s deal. I mean the ChiSox did just give 54MM to Dallas Keuchel, so I don’t think it’s an impossible thought.
Yeah, I get you.
I’m not a fan of either team, just trying to find a way to make a complicated deal actually work.
Padres May value having a vet like Price in their rotation for 3 years with the young kids.
No doubt the Red Sox would value Myers over Price considering the cost difference and the huge tax improvement, even if Myers is pretty worthless.
Biggest issue is the Padres only bring in roughly $300M per year, so its hard to see them jumping to $180M in payroll, even if it’s only for one year. They’d obviously want to extend Betts after 2020 if they could. But that may not be an option.
Not an option
Wow, none of the top 5? Is Boston that desperate to get below the threshold that they are willing to trade one of the top 3 players in the game for less than top 5 prospects? I don’t see it and certainly wouldn’t understand it. As others have said in this thread, they could probably do a lot better somewhere else. Really interesting moveIf it happens though.
This isn’t a trade rumor, it’s a trade fantasy. The Myers contract is toxic.
Sox will cover half of Myers salary, price will be included and one top prospect will head to Boston.
So the Padres get to take on an additional $92 million in salary obligations AND have to give Boston a premium prospect? Somehow I don’t see that happening.
What is 1 year of Betts worth? What was he last year, about 6 WAR? That makes him worth $48 million. Minus his $27 million salary, that gives him a grand total of $21 million in value ABOVE what he is being paid. Yet the Padres get to pay $92 million to get $21 million in value? AND give Boston a premium prospect?
If you want to know what Price is worth just look at Joey Lucchesie. They had very similar numbers last year, except the Padres already have Lucchesie and he is practically free, as opposed to $32 million per.
You do realize that Myers was a -0.3 war player and is owed $67.5 over the next three seasons right? Betts was a 6.8 war ($54.4) In 2019 and Price 1.9 ($15.2).
It will be impossible for the Padres to not have to add A top five prospect and more if Myers and his entire salary is coming back and that’s if Price is included. If Betts only, it would take a minimum of two top five.
Minimum of two top 5 prospects for a 1 year rental??? No offense, but thank goodness you’re not a GM
“Minimum of two top 5 prospects for a 1 year rental??? No offense, but thank goodness you’re not a GM”
Is Wil Myers and his contract invisible lol? Without Myers, the sure Betts would not net any of the Padres top 5. With Myers? Absolutely!
It’s why it would have to work ifPrice’s contract is involved. Padres aren’t going to give up 2 top prospects just to unload Myers’ contract and get a 1 year rental
I really don’t understand where all these proposals these days have gotten to where the only thing that should be accounted for in what a team gives up is this idea of “surplus” value.
That is what you pay EXTRA for. You don’t just get to go around the league and insist on getting to assume CONTROL of any other team’s player for free on any deal where a player is playing to the value of his contract. You need to pay for the rights just to have that guy too. The better the production, the more you pay. Then, the better the bargain on the deal, the more you pay on top of that.
Newsflash, it’s not betts specific either.
Preller is going to mortgage the future for Betts in order to save his butt. Betts won’t sign a long term deal in SD before going to free agency, while the Padres will be stuck with Price’s contract.
Both teams should be sensible and just make a trade happen. It would be best for both clubs.
Come on Preller! Don’t be cheap! Your job is on the line!
Besides, prospects are just that.
They often bust…..
No on Price he’s over paid by Sox unless they eat 30% of his salary no deal
Think about that 30% figure. Thats 9m per year.
So when you add myers in, myers is owed about 65m in the next 3 years. FA OFers with better production than myers are still waiting for offers and won’t see close to 20+m/per this offseason. Some are taking nonguaranteed deals.
As an IF, myers production in war the last few years tracks close to peraza, who got 3m from Bloom. Thats what he clearly values that pedigree and production at. That means there’s almost negative 18m per season on myers deal.
So, in a mookie+price for myers+pieces deal, IF it were to happen which isn’t clear here, this is what SD needs to cover:
* buy control over a 6-8war top 5 proven mlb talent
* buy the surplus value on the contract of that talent
* offset the negative value of myers deal ($9m covered by prices negative value, $27m in prospect capital – 9m/yr * 3yrs)
* assume 27.7m/yr on betts, OR, include additional compensation to offset whatever they don’t pick up
* assume 22m/yr on price’s deal, 66m total, OR, include additional compensation to offset whatever they don’t pick up.
THAT is exactly why there is this dispute over what part of myers deal goes to the redsox. Boston clearly sees no desirability or value there, and has better prospects for 1B than myers has talent. They understand it is SD goal in the trade to move him, but, they don’t want any part of it and seem to insist on being compensated for that accordingly.
Come on Preller, Gore and Patino are 20 years old.
A lot can happen, especially
to pitchers…..
And Myers might actually rebound in Boston!
If Patino is not int involved as the centerpiece well then the Padres can keep looking. The rest of the Padres stuff is lukewarm or blocked on the Red Sox at best.
Patino is worth Betts straight up
No one is disputing that. Myers is the issue. He’s owed $67.5 and is worth a minor league contract.
Next update: Padres acquire Mookie Betts for Wil Myers and Padres prospects ranked 6-30!
While you posted this 10 hours ago, the most recent update says the Goldschmidt trade is being used as the bar SD intend on blowing by, and Carson Kelly and Luke Weaver were no longer prospects when they were traded, they were rookies.
Grisham, Mejia and Franchy qualify as that type of player on SD.
Except they all suck. Padres trying to trade a bag of doorknobs for a superstar. LMAO
And the Sox are trying to RENT a Ferrari for the PURCHASE PRICE of a new one.
Buy a Ferrari- $250,000-$1million
Rent one- $5,000-$10,000 maybe.
Bit of a difference there no?
Strike Four – don’t forget though, in goldy’s deal one of the worst contracts in mlb (like myers) wasn’t trying to be attached in the return. There’s about 55m in negative value that can’t be flipped there which would block legitimate 1B prospects with power in boston.
And myers doesnt have the pop to be an AL East DH.
Carson Kelly was a top 30 prospect at the beginning of 2018. So you are saying better than him, right? Who do the Padres have that is both better than Carson Kelly and a rookie in 2019? Paddack? Mejia wasn’t a rookie, he played his 50th game in 2018, but it could be him.
Weaver was coming off his 2nd year in the majors. So who on the Padres is as good or better than he was? Paddack? Lucchesi?
Grisham is hot garbage who has never hit in his career other than 1 month in AAA with a juiced ball, so he is not part of this trade, Cordero has never stayed healthy and was never a top prospect so neither is he. They don’t qualify.
So Mejia, Paddack, Cronenworth, and a competitive round A pick? That is what it would take to be better than what the Cardinals gave up without giving up Gore, Trammell, or Patino.
Hasn’t the Padres and one of the 2 worst GM’s in baseball done this trade act before. Ummm Justin Upton, Greg Kimbrel and all that other stuff. Only to lose and tank for 5 years, then rebound with prospects who haven’t panned out. Amazing what happens when this is your last year of being a GM.
Is Craig
Which of the Padres prospects “haven’t panned out?”
I think I sat behind Greg Kimbrel in math class one time.
I am fine with getting second tier prospects from that great farm however would like to get one of Abrams or Patino aswell
Keep Mookie
Haha! No problem especially if Myers is part of the deal. One of the the worst contracts in baseball.