FEBRUARY 19: The Pads are indeed interested in both Lindor and Senzel, Dennis Lin of The Athletic reports (subscription link). It’s even possible that the Myers talks with the Red Sox could morph into a three-team arrangement involving the Reds, Lin adds.
FEBRUARY 18: Spring Training is now upon us. Prior talks failed to result in a deal. And yet the Red Sox are still holding talks with the Padres about a potential deal that would send first baseman/outfielder Wil Myers to Boston, according to Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune.
Details are about as firm as you could ever hope to see them in a rumor of a potential swap. As before, the Friars want the Sox to take over about half of Myers’s salary (total guarantee of $61MM) over the next three years. Young talent would go to Boston to sweeten the pot. Players that have been discussed include Cal Quantrill, Luis Campusano, and Gabriel Arias, though it’s not clear which would be included and the Sox wouldn’t be able to obtain all of them just to take on half of what’s owed Myers.
That leaves out one major component of the as-yet-uncompleted trade talks: what would come back from the Red Sox? The original chatter between these teams involved Mookie Betts, who is no longer in the Boston stable. There’s no real indication just yet as to what current Red Sox might pique the interest of Padres GM A.J. Preller.
Yet more intriguing? The real goal, per Acee, is to swing a blockbuster for a high-level talent. He notes Nick Senzel of the Reds and Francisco Lindor of the Indians as longstanding targets, but it’s not really clear whether either is realistically available at this point. There aren’t many other conceivable candidates to be acquired who’d meet the description of a “difference-making” performer.
It’s fair to hold some skepticism here, especially as to the possible second prong of this scenario. Then again, Preller once pulled off a trade for Craig Kimbrel just before the start of a season, so it’s tough to rule out any mid-spring fireworks.
so much for saving cap space
There is not salary cap
Not a hard cap, but you do have a luxury tax, which is supposed to operate like a soft cap.
oh you know what i mean. luxury tax…soft cap…de facto cap, whatever you want to call it
I call it a top hat.
Bottle cap
@DarkSide830 you aren’t allowed to make a mistake in the comments section you know that!
Don’t call it a comeback.
You know exactly what he meant. Stop being a tool.
Agree… it annoys the crap out of me the people who insist on pointing out that there’s “no salary cap” in Baseball. Like the penalties (not even including financial ones… I’m talking picks and international bonus $ etc) make it function as a de facto salary cap. Otherwise you start to lose valuable assets and no team wants to be losing picks and international $ etc. etc. Like get over yourself that it’s not technically a “salary cap” and acknowledge that for most intents and purposes it is one…
Most teams havent and never will pay luxury taxes, so its not a cap.
Padres458
“Most teams havent and never will pay luxury taxes, so its not a cap.”
What does whether or not a team encounters a cap have to do with whether or not there is a cap, euphemistically or otherwise?
First time in a long time Mo that we agree. I was reading and re-reading Padres’s post trying to understand. Thanks for making me realize I wasn’t alone.
It is not required that every team has to be effected for it to be a cap. If it limits even one team, it’s a cap.
There are no salary caps but there are baseball caps (hats).
And there are bat caps (the end knob)
You’re welcome.
do condoms have caps? one mirror glimpse should tell you. you’re welcome
Euphemistically…. Word of the day.
Padres458, most people never fell a tree, but that doesn’t mean that the tree doesn’t get cut down. Think about your line of logic, or lack thereof
Spoken like a fan of about a half dozen teams …
It is not a salary cap.
This guy, quibbling over semantics. Get a life, bro.
Okay, once and for all, can we please just start going under the assumption that, when folks mention ‘salary cap’ in a baseball conversation, they mean the $208M?
I think that is the assumption that 98% of us are under.
Do you mean “There is not a salary cap”? I’ll just assume that’s what you meant
I don’t think Houston should receive any profit sharing for 5 years. Let their “winnings” pay for their salaries.
I think he means that 98% of MLB teams are under the “salary cap”.
This would be essentially buying prospects. Not a bad idea.
it’s a good strategy for a team with the financial resources that’s trying to quickly reset their roster
They could definitely buy low on Anderson Espinoza
he would be and i’d be interested in his reqcquisition in the right deal. perhaps as an additional piece…perhaps to offset another $3-5 million. still has potential, but it’s a much riskier investment at this point
Insist on sending “I have a new boo-boo” Anderson Espinoza back to the Red Sox. Maybe then their fans will stop whining about the Pomeranz damaged goods issue. Let the fools see what San Diego got from them. No moaning allowed, Boston, you’re getting what San Diego got. Send Myers, SP Espinoza, C Hedges and OF Cordero. They send Padres players clam chowder at SD home games for 5 years.
Wow, someone is super bitter
And even lower on Alvaro Espinoza
Who’s Alvaro Espinoza?
Especially since they might (- might! -) forfeit a pick or two as part of their sign stealing punishment.
Sox get rid of JBJ and take on half of Myers is a cost neutral move for 2020. Sox would still probably have luxury tax room to add Yates, as well.
Red Sox have no use for Kirby Yates. He’s a rental and they are rebuilding.
Sox have all the uses for Kirby Yates. They gave up the same amount of runs as the White Sox in 2019 and their bullpen hasn’t recovered from losing Kimbrel.
Doesn’t matter. He’s a rental and they are rebuilding. Rebuilding teams don’t trade for rentals. They trade them away.
They could re-sign him pretty easily I’d imagine
@Smelly_Cobb that’s not a reason to trade for him. It’s a reason against trading for him. They can take more/better prospects from the Padres instead of Yates and then sign Yates “pretty easily” as you said next offseason.
Or they could flip him in July if this becomes a 2015 situation. I don’t expect it but how many of us anticipated such a poor 2019?
The Padres should not be looking to include yates just to dump Myers. But I dont see why the sox would rule it out. Yates could then be flipped at the deadline for more prospects
@Sotomayori yeah. Worse/less prospects than it would cost to acquire him now. So the Red Sox just downgraded their farm system in order to hurt their draft position for 2021.
You are not trading for Yates now and flipping him for a better return at the deadline when he only has 1/3 as much control remaining and can’t be QO’d. Stop it with that ridiculousness.
Hey jimthebillygoat: Dodgers have no use for Betts. He’s a rental and they are rebuilding Chavez Ravine.
They haven’t officially declared a rebuild. In fact Chaim Bloom balked at that notion and said that they have room now to make moves at the deadline if they are in contention. Aside from Betts and Price, they have largely the same team on offense. Yates would definitely shore up the back end of the bullpen which was awful last year.
“They haven’t officially declared a rebuild.”
They did when they traded away the 2nd best player in MLB.
“In fact Chaim Bloom balked at that notion…”
That’s just lip service.
“Aside from Betts and Price, they have largely the same team on offense”
Lol you act like losing Betts and Price doesn’t hurt their immediate odds of contention at all. And they were already 12 games back of the 2nd wild card spot with them on the team.
“Aside from Betts and Price, they have largely the same team on offense”
Wouldn’t be enough to make up the 19 win deficit they are now facing.
Padres will have to include a lot players/prospect for Meyers to be included . If padres send a good hall Boston might just release Myers.
Yates will not be a part of any trade, stop kidding yourself he’ll bring his bounty in July if the Friars are not in contention however.
Nick Senzel goes to Padres in three team trade for one of Friars young RP, and George Arias to Reds, Myers and Campusano, along with Quantrill to Sox, Sox send one of their top 100 prospect back to Friars along with Chavis a Sox OF..
That’s my guess JBJ is the next one to go.
Yup…JBJ and minor league player to San Diego and Myers and Quantrill to Boston.
Would take more then just Myers and Quantrill if Boston took on half that Myers contract.
Yup, Baez and Morejon too. And I think JBJ stays in Boston and it’s Michael Chavis who is involved in the trade.
JBJ is Margot and we just got rid of him. Keep him. Myers, SP Espinoza, C Hedges and Of Cordero for an exchange of unis.
Bradley and ? to Padres for Myers, prospects, and money
You won’t get Hedges included maybe a IF prospect along with Quantrill and Baez.
I honestly thought this trade was some sort of meme (Sox don’t like some of their contracts, Padres don’t like Myers) but I thought it would die when Betts got traded. Don’t let memes be dreams I guess.
There is no way Boston goes over the Lux Tax even if they do add Myers. If they went over after trading Mookie the Red Sox brass would be absolutely crucified.
I think it’s a JBJ-Myers swap with Yates and Quantrill added as Boston’s incentive to take on the extra two years of Myers.
Yates won’t be included
I agree, Yates makes no sense in this deal. SD fortified their pen so they could move him, but If SD is going to move Yates it would probably be in a Senzel deal because CIN can use the bullpen help this year. Boston needs young controllable pitching like Quantrill, Morejon, Baez etc… more than it needs rentals.
5 years of Quantrill and 1 year of Yates in exchange for saving a total of $25 million? That sounds like a horrific deal.
Red Sox don’t have enough outfielders to trade JBJ unless they have something set up to sign a guy like Puig on the cheap.
1. They can get Puig for the league minimum whenever they want.
2. Not having enough outfielders isn’t a reason not to trade JBJ. He’s a rental. Only the controllable outfielders matter to Boston.
The Boston OF would be Benny, Pillar., Verdugo and Myers after a trade like this.
Incorrect
Myers bc the blowsox first baseman
Actually, they brought back Moreland, who certainly should be expected to get at least half the playing time there. So Myers would have to be seen as more than just a fire baseman, especially with JD Martinez taking up most of the DH at bats.
Awful. Id take Myers over JBJ
Dream on.
Wonder what the Sox are gonna do with Rusney Castillo which is on his last year of his contract? If they were gonna use him it would be this year.
Benintendi, Pillar, Verdugo…could also probably use Peraza or Chavis out there, if needed, Chavis played OF in winter ball.
So would I. And I can’t stand Myers.
@Bruins1012 – They get Myers back, who plays in the OF. So trading JBJ for Myers is net neutral for OF headcount. Myers can play RF or LF. Pillar in CF, Benny in LF or RF until Verdugo is healthy. Then Myers turns into a rotational piece, including 1st base.
Indeed…Still talking the low road.
Myers will continue to suck if the Sox use him as a rotational piece. He has to play just one position.
Agreed. Like’16 and ’17.
I just don’t see Boston taking on Myers contract unless Padres pays 75 % and more prospects. Boston is not trading to help Padres dumb signings
Rusney would push them over the CBT. He is playing out his contract like Allen Craig. Two of the reasons Ben Cherington was fired and for good reason (along with Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez)
Rusney would push them over the CBT. He is playing out his contract like Allen Craig. Two of the reasons Ben Cherington was fired and for good reason (along with Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez)
LOL jpm NO WAY glad your not our GM, Yates is a Friar for 2020 too valuable to trade him to the Bosox, much rather keep Myers have him hit 20 HR’s and 60 RBI’s rather than have to trade with the Sox
No one wants JBJ he’s worthless worse then Myers
Right, more likely Michael Chavis.
Please tell me how you came to that conclusion? It’s not even debatable. JBJ is superior to Myers. But humor me, I can’t wait to see this argument.
Some folks come in to insult the RS, and they don’t care if they have to embarrass themselves in order to do so.
People are looking at this all wrong. It makes perfect sensense and I called for a variation of this after the betts trade, I think a bit of back and forth with Java and someone else…anyways…
From SD they care about total dollars. CBT is ZERO concern.
From BOS they care about CBT. Total real dollars is minimal concern.
Wil Myers is owed about 22.5m/yr in total dollars, but only about 13.8? in CBT.
A month ago someone posted the actual rule, but, functionally when cash goes to another club the club receiving the cash gets a deduction off its CBT calculated payroll – like your standard deduction on irs taxes – but the paying club has that value added/remaining on its CBT calculation even though the player is gone.
Here, if SD pays half of myers salary (11.25m/yr for 3 yrs) then myers CBT value drops to ~2.5m.
For SD you remove 11.25m a year off your TOTAL payroll, and don’t caRe if money lingers on CBT.
For BOS you only add 2.75m to your CBT for 3yrs, and don’t really care about off-the-tax money just like rusney castillo.
Why does boston do it? They want the #5sp and prospects.
It’s a win/win.
Thanks. As you say, makes sense.
@Mo4ever – it does, and it keeps on doing so the more you dig down.
SD has a plethora of #4/5 sp types including the prospects who need some mlb time at the back of the rotation to finish development and figure out if they’re starters or relievers.
SD also has TOO many young 40 man players and prospects to protect all the non-40 man prospects who are coming up on rule 5 eligibility.
Both are expendable to get something of value. Obviously preller hasn’t been able to line up – yet – on a big trade. But he can free up cash to make moves ownership won’t chip in extra for.
Sox can have Lucchesie. Padres keep Quantrill. Sox fans kept saying that Price is worth his $16 million contract with Boston paying the other half. Well, Lucchesie put up almost exactly the same numbers last year. Actually Lucchesie pitched more innings and his numbers were slightly better, but I won’t quibble. He has 3 years of control, he is younger than Price and he is currently $14 million cheaper. That covers half of Myers contract in a straight up trade. You are welcome Boston.
It’s “Lucchesi” not “Lucchesie” you illiterate twerp
A bit angry are we jimthegoat? I noticed you didn’t actually reply to the substance of my comment. You just take a cheap shot at a misspelled name. People resort to name calling when they are proven wrong. Get over it Jim. Either Boston fans here lied about Price’s value or LUCCHESI is worth half of Myers contract straight up.
What was I supposedly proven wrong about?
Still evading my original comment Jim? I guess you have nothing to say. That’s fine. Good day to you.
As are you avoiding mine.
“I know you are but what am I”. Seriously Jim? Are you 4 years old? I made a comment. Either respond to it or not. Either way, I don’t dance.
What does Price’s value or non-value have to do with Lucchesi? Price isn’t even on the Red Sox anymore and so it’s totally irrelevant to who the Red Sox have as their 5th starter. And yeah I mean I HATE price but on field value… I think he should be okay at $16.5M — he wouldn’t be my first choice at that price point. But especially with him now being in the NL I’d be willing to bet he posts a mid 3.00s ERA at worse — that is assuming he stays healthy enough to pitch.
If you can’t read I cannot help you Jeff.
When Price and Betts were traded Boston fans attributed a value to Price. They say Price gives $16.5 million in value.
Joey Lucchesi had very similar and slightly better numbers last year. That makes him worth $16.5 million. Since he costs less than $2 million, he gives you $14.5 million in surplus value per year for the next $3 years. Half of Myers contract is $11.25 million per year for the next 3 years. That makes a straight-up trade of Lucchesi for half of Myers almost equal, with an additional value of about $9 million going to the Sox. If the Sox are looking for fair value for taking half of Myers, Lucchesi is it. No Quantrill, no Yates, no Morejon, no Baez, no Campusano and no Patino.
I can see nobody wants to touch or comment on BOSTON math.
Where are you hiding Boston fans?
Nice take AtlSoxFan.
Javia, I won’t get involved in the back and forth but Price was one of the league’s best when he developed an injury. The Dodgers were willing to risk $16m to get Betts and are simply hoping he stays healthy. Price’s upside for 2020 is worth much more than Lucchesi for a this season title contender.
I will when you explain what I was supposedly proven wrong about.
Javia, sorry the auto correct changed your name above.
There is some difference between Lucchesi and Price in your argument above, as far as I know – so feel free to correct me.
1) last year, like many, average ERA in the AL was higher than the NL, partly due to no dh, partly due to ballparks, etc. The point is, when you look at ERA+ which is defense/schedule/park/etc neutral, an AL pitcher with a higher overall era could be equal in era+ to a pitcher in the NL with a lower era.
Takeaway of my point 1 – it’s a data point that to be “equals” a NL pitcher needs a LOWER overall era.
2) David price was injured, trying to pitch with a cyst after the AS break. He was ultimately shut down with surgery to remove said cyst. Was Lucchesi injured in 2019, affecting his numbers?
Takeaway of point 2: price’s 2019 era was less indicative of performance ability than lucchesi’s 2019 line. Lucchesi could play to his peak ability, Price was impaired from doing so.
3) Before injury, Price was one of the top 3 pitchers in most metrics, including era, and a potential cy young contender. At no point in 2019 or otherwise did Lucchesi post a dominant stretch for such a length of time.
Takeaway of point 3: price has a much higher PROVEN ceiling than Lucchesi has shown thus far.
Now, if you want to argue lost value re:injury history… well we can differ on opinion whether prices surgery has left him fully healthy. If you want to argue control or contract value or age… we can do that too.
But 2019 era line as a measure of whether Lucchesi and Price are equivalent pitchers from a value perspective is deeply and inherently flawed. Pick a new set of arguments to try, then we can agree to disagree on some of those due to data pointing both ways.
If Price had so much upside why was he almost impossible to trade? Upside at 34 yrs old is non-existent.
Jimthegoat-nobody was talking to you. If you want to go off on tangents fine, you can do it alone. If you want to talk about my comment without constantly changing the subject, I am here.
@Javia – you ignore engaging on all of my other points about Price/Lucchesi, so, I presume you agree and/or do not have evidence to the contrary? You’re not engaging on actual point raised just like your earlier taunts you directed at others.
“Upside at 34 yrs old is nonexistant.” Hmm… I think all of mlb would disagree with you, Justin verlander was traded at exactly in his 34 yrs old season, and what has he done sense? No trashcan banging or buzzers fueled him. No, Price will not become verlander. But a 34 yr old can have upside compared to his recent history or be a buy low candidate
With regards to why Price was hard to trade? There were 96 million of them, 32 million in each of the next 3 years. Each one a greenbacked one. For all the upside he has, Price hasn’t been worth 32m/yr.
We don’t know how much chaim was willing to eat off the deal at any time except the final trade, or how that amount changed over time.
We also dont know what offers Chaim got, but we do know he wasn’t hired immediately, took time evaluating the team and getting up to speed, and all this during a time lots of teams were blowing through their FA budgets at a recently unprecedented pace.
We also dont know what kind of return Chaim would’ve taken – sp only, or something else? But we are pretty sure that unless he could get under the CBT, chaim likely wasn’t trading price because the goal appears to either have been compete with Mookie, or, get significant young talent and below the cbt without him.
@atlsoxfan
Do you really think SD is overly concerned about the rule 5 draft in February?
What kinds of numbers do you expect Price to put up this year AltSoxFan? I am sure we disagree. I would just like to see by how much. I think Price will put up an ERA of between 3.8 and 4.2. 140-170 innings.
Of course you pick stats that support your argument and I pick stats that support mine. I can refute all 3 of your points but I will not bother to since you are obviously not listening. I did not just use ERA, all of their numbers were remarkably similar last year. Because there is no single stat that definitively shows exactly how good a player is we will just have to agree to disagree.
The truth is anyone can make arguments for or against any player. I personally hate WAR but Lucchesi and Price had almost the same WAR last year. Now, you can make all kinds of arguments about why Price was actually better than his grade and how he will improve next year for all kinds of reasons. I can make all kinds of arguments against him and for Lucchesi. It doesn’t matter. What matters at the end of the day is that they graded out the same last year. Period. You can massage the numbers all you want. You can use different numbers. But last year they were the same pitcher. If one is worth $16 million the other one is as well. And that value is slightly more than half of Myers contract.
You can hope for all kinds of prospects to be thrown at Boston to take on Myers salary. It just isn’t going to happen.
@stymedome – I don’t think SD is much concerned with rule 5. But, when you have a $5 off any purchase coupon that is about to expire, it’s a little easier to part with rather than wait for a sale on something you want even more.
Just makes some prospects a little more expendable feeling than otherwise.
@Javia…
I was talking about your comment. “People resort to name calling when they are proven wrong.” Those were your words…
So what was I proven wrong about?
Imagine that! The broken record gives the same response.
Hey jimbillygoat: Still got your back legs stuck in those irrigation boots, twerp?
@javia – With Price I realistically expect between 150-180 innings next year, close to you. On era, I’d expect about a 3.20-3.50era, but I think there’s a higher probability and legitimate chance for the low end or lower as he will benefit from the usual bump AL to NL transitions usually get.
Part depends how spring goes, and how he is used by his new manager. They may not keep him out there as long as he can go in appearances.
It sounds like we agree WAR isn’t a great indicator for pitchers, but, I’ll point out to you that price accumulated his in a much shorter window of time. Price tried to pitch injured a little after the AS break where his accumulated war declined along with his other stats.
Funny thing about era as an indicator, it actually is a result of how many walks, hits, ba, slugging, etc are playing out for the opposite team. When one guys era is thrown off by his health, similarly, the rest of those are too, even down to things like quality starts, total IP, etc. So my point about health, and one guys being able to play to his ceiling and one not, remains just as valid. If anything you just reinforced my point for me.
You say you can make the points, so do so. Saying “I could if I wanted, but don’t see a point to”, sounds like you can’t and are making a schoolyard excuse.
Part of price’s value at $16m is the historical ability that has been demonstrated over his entire mlb career, but, was impeded in 2019. Lucchesi doesn’t have that mlb track record.
Lucchesi has 2 seasons at the mlb level, both at 4+ era, in the lighter hitting NL, no known injuries preventing his ceiling. Both years, in a park/schedule/etc adjusted ERA+ Lucchesi hovered around league average, with 94/101 ratings. For his career he averaged slightly below average.
That is with the playing field leveled equalizing the variables.
Price has 12 years being a ERA+ of 123, significantly above league average. Once ever Price graded a 98, the only time in 12 years he did so. Every other year Price rated between 108 and 234.
In 2018 and 2019, to compare with Lucchesi’s 94/101 ratings Price posted 123/113 ratings.
So no, not equivalent seasons, where even an injured price who was 12% better than lucchesi. And that is the equalized playing field between the two before all those intangibles.
It’s ok to like a guy on your team. Its another to argue against every known statistical measure or intangible for the sake of arguing. evaluating who has shown more talent, demonstrated a higher recent (or forever) floor and ceiling only cuts one way – for price.
It’s one’s worth moRe than the other.
Anyone care to bet what jimthegoat’s next response will be/include? I will give 10 to 1 odds his response will include the words ,”What was I proven wrong about?”
@Javia just tell me what I was proven wrong about and I’ll stop. That sound fair to you?
Let’s see:
You say Price’s ERA+ ranges from 108-234. That 234 was over a total of 14 inning his rookie year. His next highest was 179 and that was over 1/3 of a year. Realistically he has been between 108-160 at his best. And maybe you don’t know this, but players get worse after age 30. Price has been declining over the last few years. Over the last 4 years he has averaged 147 innings and an ERA of 3.84. Those seem to fit within my estimates, not yours. His fastball has declined from averaging over 95 when he got started to under 92 last year pre injury. Unless you believe Price is destined for a late career renaissance, his numbers from this point on can be expected to regress from those 147 innings and 3.84 ERA. Maybe you believe that Price is like fine wine or scotch and will get better with age. I myself believe he is a normal human and will continue to regress with age.
There it is! House keeps the money! And the record repeats.
@Javia so did you want to take me up on that offer or nah? I think it’s more than fair.
AtlSoxFan
Re: Valuing Price at 34, Verlander is a horrible example of what happens to pitchers in their mid-thirties. Pine tar or no, he’s a singular exception. I don’t think any GM whatsoever would think Verlander when valuing Price’s future, and for good reason. The chances his mid and latter thirties will play out like V’s is zero.
You never replied to my post. You mocked me because my tablets autocorrect caused a spelling error in my post. You called me illiterate. You could not refute my argument with logic so you resorted to name calling. That is the refuge of last resort. That is what a person does when they have nothing else to say. It is what children do. You can go ahead and think that you haven’t been proven wrong, but that is only because you do not have the intelligence to successfully refute my argument.
Now, are you going to respond to my argument or are you going to change the subject again?
How have I been proven wrong? The only thing I replied to you about I was 100% correct about.
Simply putting the entire career out there.
You neglect that a 3.84 in the NL does NOT equal a 3.84 in the AL, and, you misrepresent his innings totals and ability by cherry picking two unrelated injury seasons, the only two in many years, one of which was to remove a cyst from his wrist to put him at his peak in 2020 – a shut down due to lack of contention with an eye towards the future rather than an inability to go on the field whatsoever.
We can go back and forth like that.
Again, to use a schedule, stadium, and defense neutral evaluators like ERA+ and FIP, Price’s ERA+ was 112, 135, 123, 113 in the last 4 years of your choice. If we make it 6 yrs add a 115 and 164. That’s compared to league average.
In the last 6 yrs price put up 248, 220, 230, 75, 176, 107 IP. Obviously injuries and recoveries played a role.
Since you don’t like era+, let’s look at FIP. That adjusts everyon for their defense benefits/costs of the guys behind them.
Lucchesi posted a 4.31 (18) and 4.17 (19) FIP. He posted better actual era than his FIP expected based on his perepherals thanks to his teammates.
Price posted in order FIP of 2.78 (14), 2.78 (15), 3.60 (16), 3.64 (17), 4.02 (18), 3.62 (19).
What you see, even if we hold to the last 4 years you cherry pick, likely because Price was worse in boston than elsewhere (more a boston issue than a being 30 yrs old issue), is that he is pretty consistent over time.
Again, accounting for the proven bump where AL pitchers most often see a decrease in era and increase in era+/fip on a move to the NL, it’s not unreasonable to expect movement in those directions here.
Regardless, 2019 FIP for price was consistent to 3 of 4 boston campaigns – low 3.60s. That’s a full half point better than anything lucchesi ever showed.
So again, the more you know.
Mo – I agree and even stated verlander isn’t to be used to expect what happens at age 34. However, I was replying to the absolute statement that no 34 year old has ever had upside. Ever.
Plenty of 34 year olds have upside, surplus value, or represent buy low candidates. Verlander was just chosen to be as obnoxious an example as the blanket statement I was replying to (and I’d did include a disclaimer)
Look at that! He doesn’t bother to read what is written and he changes the subject again-just as I predicted. Congratulations Jim for getting me to forget one of my cardinal rules: Do not argue with drunks, crazy people or children. They cannot be reasoned with.
And again, I know, here it comes: “How was I proven wrong?” So I will reply before you even ask again, and again, and again, and again, and again, and again, and again…… Just read my above post. It’s in there.
I am not cherry picking any specific 2 injury seasons. I used his latest 4 seasons as an example because that seems to be where age caught up to him. But now that you bring it up, it is an interesting point that his 2 injury shortened seasons happened right after he turned 30. From here on out I wouldn’t exactly expect him to get healthier or less injury prone.
You demand that an AL to NL advantage be considered, yet you yourself refuse to acknowledge any affects of aging on performance. If you will look at the history of baseball, you will see that one happens to absolutely every player while the other does not. Even when they both happen, age tends to take 10 times the toll as switching leagues does.
I see you put Price down as being worse at home than anywhere else as being only a “Boston issue” and not an age issue. Maybe the 3+ mph he has lost off of his fastball is also a Boston issue and has nothing to do with age? Now a Boston issue would seem you are talking about something like the green monster, something that helps pitchers over hitters. It also seems to me that every Boston fan here on MLBTR swore to God that that same green monster and the advantages of hitting over pitching in Boston would have no effect on Betts. It’s funny, when it helps your cause you demand it be considered but when it doesn’t help you you ignore it or argue directly against it. That is called Homerism, and you are suffering from it Alt
Agree with 90% of what you’ve said on this thread. Good insights and detail.
My one nit to pick is the use of ERA+ when comparing pitchers, especially inter-leavue. That “stat” depends on a lot of variables and assumptions that aren’t quantifiable metrics. Not as many as WAR, but enough to make it a fairly meaningless stat, IMO.
Javia, you like Jim, now resort to personal attacks when the facts turn against you.
Steamer projects Price as a 3.70 era 3.38 FIP arm in 2020, leaving out war unless you want since it really isn’t that great for SP. Lucchesi as a 4.34 era /3.91 FIP arm for 2020. They just aren’t comparable.
Also, for the record, I think Mookie’s benefitted from fenway help in 81 games, much like other players in other ballclubs for their respective fields. Never claimed contrary. Depending on whether he is CF/RF may impact his dWar, RF in fenway is cavernous and you can use your wheels as if a true CFer, its easily top 3 hardest in mlb to cover once you add the angles and low walls to the size. I still think he has a cannon arm independent of both. So don’t try to put words in my mouth or paint me as something I’m not.
Ignoring what mlb does with the baseball, id expect power results may decline in LA, both because of park dimensions and because of locations. However, even with its LF wall, fenway is a hard park to hit a hr in being roughly middle of the pack. You lose as many low line drive HRs to doubles as you gain from floating pop ups.
But mookie aside, we’re talking price.
You may just be repeating what you heard on espn, but, your pitch speed if isn’t accurate.
Since… say start of 2013, give you 3 pre boston years as well, here’s the velocities of price’s pitches:
FA: 94.6, 94.3, 95.0, 93.8, 94.1, 93.1, 92.4
FC: 89.2, 87.9, 90.1, 88.9, 88.8, 89.0, 88.8
Sl: 94.5, 94.2, 94.8, 93.5, 94.5, 93.1, 92.1
Ch: 84.7, 85.8, 85.8, 85.1, 86.0, 85.4, 84.4
Cu: 80.4, 80.4, 80.2, 79.5, 79.8, 79.4, 80.7
So price hadn’t “lost 3+ mph” off any of his pitches in the last couple seasons, no monumental age 30, or age 34, downturn. There’s been variations year to year, and while some are down a bit last year, I’d imagine the cyst (and fortnite) had more to do with that than aging.
Another piece of data, but then again, I see absolutely ZERO defenses of lucchesi anymore, just pure blind attacks on Price. I kinda understand, I mean he’s slated to carve up your padres this season so it’s nice to try attacking the guy preemptively.
Problem is, your claims aren’t supported.
@SDhotdawg, I kind of like FIP the best, but work with what you got to get the broadest picture
The previous was @AltSoxFan, BTW.
Calling someone illiterate is a personal attack. Saying someone might be suffering from Homerism is far from a personal attack. In fact, your statement equating my statements as “just pure, blind attacks on Price” in order to try to belittle my views and then implying that my reasons are because Price “is slated to carve up your Padres this season, so it’s nice to try attacking the guy preemptively” is far more of a personal attack than any statement I made. But go ahead and try to play the victim.
I said that Price STARTED with a fastball over 95 and that it is now under 92. In fact it was 91.8 last year. I never said that it was a product of the last few years. If you could quote where I did I would love to see it. Of course you choose to put in whatever years you choose, stating that you will even include a couple of years before Boston to try and make it like you are even farther than me. In fact I was talking about the beginning of Price’s career until now to show the cumulative effects of age. Of course you just went ahead and misquoted me to try to prove me wrong. Then you throw in the speed of all of his other pitches to try to further muddy the issue.
I did not insult you AltSoxFan. In fact, you insulted me several times. That, the fact that you are misquoting my statements to try to prove me wrong, and the fact that you bring in irrelevant data about his other pitches which I had never mentioned to muddy the issues, is also just like throwing personal insults. They are all done to mask the weakness of your arguments.
If you cannot beat me straight up, misquote me, muddy the issue with irrelevant data and insult me. I score that as a win if you have to degenerate to those tactics.
Javia, you haven’t met or refuted this giant body of statistical evidence with pieces of proof that your original contention that lucchesi was turning in equal production to price in 2019 yet. It’s devloved into you claiming that, generally he was prices equal, and now, that price is in some great decline.
Let me disprove your latest statements.
As for price having declined from “Price STARTED with a fastball over 95, and that it is now under 92.”
In price’s first 2 years in the league here’s what he threw, and how hard it averaged. (Fangraphs is your friend.)
He threward the FA 94.8 in ’08, 94.7 in ’09. Was 92.4 including balls thrown WITH AN INJURY in 2019, and 93.1 the year before.
So not only did it not start at 95+, even if you want to count the injury diminished skewed readings that throw off the ’19 average it fell a whopping 2.4mph in 12 seasons. Btw, 2.4 doesn’t even round up to 3, let alone qualify for “the 3+ mph he lost off his fastball” you stated above.
His other pitches? Well, he wasn’t using the FC yet, the Sl in his 2nd season, first time using it really, in’09 was 91.5, actually SLOWER than the 92.1 it averaged in ’19.
Price averaged 86.3 in ’08 on his CH, BUT, in ’09, his second season, he averaged 84.4… you know what he averaged in ’19? 84.4. So I guess guys fall apart after the rookie year is th data point there… at least in your world?
Price threw a SL, but only his first 3 seasons. No data point there.
Then you have the CU, price started using regularly in his 2nd season. On ’09 he averaged 78.0, and as a 3rd year player his second year of use it was 78.4. You know what he did in ’19? 80.7.
So you see, not only did price not start out with a FB “over 95”, it didn’t decrease “over 3+” from when he “started” as you now make it sound like you meant as a rookie.
The context of your earlier statement was actually saying “Price has been declining over the last few years. Over the last 4 years he has averaged 147 innings and an ERA of 3.84. Those seem to fit within my estimates, not yours. His fastball has declined from averaging over 95 when he got started to under 92 last year pre injury.”
Everything points to you talking about either the last few years, the last 4 years, but no context ever referencing price as a rookie. Logical interpretation was either when he got started in boston, which fits the rest of the conversation and the time period being discussed, or, starting when he was 30…. but not as a rookie.
Regardless, numbers/data disproved your over 95 as a rookie anyways, and, comparing rookie to 2019 also dont show even a number to round up to 3, let alone 3+.
So wrong.
I don’t need to misquote or personally attack to win anything. Numbers and data are on my side. I don’t include other pitches to “muddy the issue”, nice to try to presume my intent then again, try to attack me for it because you have NO FACTS for your positions, just distorted data that isn’t true. I include the other pitches like I include the other years… to show his entire body of work isn’t this sliding decline you make it out to be.
Yes players decline with age. The rate of decline varies. Pitchers with control adjust to their decline to where, even WITH substantial decline in “stuff” they remain as effective, or even more effective, than at points earlier in their careers (which isn’t clear to be happening across the board here as might be implied by allegations)
The one who has shifted, muddied and obscured is the one who got off and never defended his point.
How, again, are price and lucchesi “the exact same pitcher last year” supporting the idea that “they have the same value” when all these metrics and data points show price was, and projects to be, the superior? And even if you don’t like the data, and refuse to accept my conclusions, even the projections agree price should be significantly superior?
It’s ok to admit you’re wrong. I’m wrong every day, my wife tells me so. Even if I’m right, even then it IS wrong to tell her so… happy wife, happy life. That’s one battle you just never fight.
100 more words and you can write a novel
Here you go again cherry picking your stats AltSoxFan. First off, I never said anything about any pitches other than fastballs considering that fastballs are the only pitch where pitchers are trying to achieve max velocity. You throw in all of these other pitches as “a giant body of statistical evidence” to prove me wrong, when they in fact mean nothing and were never a part of the conversation. Fangraphs is your friend huh? You used ’08 and ’09 I noticed. What happened in 2012? Well, he threw over 200 innings that year and averaged 95.5 on his FB. When you subtract his 2019 average of 92.4 from his 2012, what do you get?? 3.1 mph. So there is your 3 mph drop. You also only used fangraphs. Brooksbaseballl had Price averaging over 96 in in 2010. It also has him at under 92.4 on his FB in 2019. That makes it just under a 4 mph difference. MLB.com had him at 91.8 average FB in 2019. But again, if you cherry pick where you get your stats and which years to use you can prove what exactly? That his FB dropped just under 3mph instead of the just under 4mph if you use all his years? I said he had a 3mph drop when in fact it was closer to 4.
So there you go, you went on and on for what 12 paragraphs? You put everybody to sleep. You threw all kinds of numbers that had nothing to do with the subject out there. And in the end after your “mountains of evidence” you turned out to still be wrong. All that after focusing on one minute, tiny part of my argument that you cherry picked out. And you were still…………wait for it……….wrong.
Here you go again cherry picking your stats AltSoxFan. First off, I never said anything about any pitches other than fastballs considering that fastballs are the only pitch where pitchers are trying to achieve max velocity. You throw in all of these other pitches as “a giant body of statistical evidence” to prove me wrong, when they in fact mean nothing and were never a part of the conversation. Fangraphs is your friend huh? You used ’08 and ’09 I noticed. What happened in 2012? Well, he threw over 200 innings that year and averaged 95.5 on his FB. When you subtract his 2019 average of 92.4 from his 2012, what do you get?? 3.1 mph. So there is your 3 mph drop. You also only used fangraphs. Brooksbaseballl had Price averaging over 96 in in 2010. It also has him at under 92.4 on his FB in 2019. That makes it just under a 4 mph difference. MLB.com had him at 91.8 average FB in 2019. But again, if you cherry pick where you get your stats and which years to use you can prove what exactly? That his FB dropped just under 3mph instead of the just under 4mph if you use all his years? I said he had a 3mph drop when in fact it was closer to 4.
So there you go, you went on and on for what 12 paragraphs? You put everybody to sleep. You threw all kinds of numbers that had nothing to do with the subject out there. And in the end after your “mountains of evidence” you turned out to still be wrong. All that after focusing on one minute, tiny part of my argument that you cherry picked out. And you were still…………wait for it……….wrong.
Price with Dodgers will be worth a lot more than the 16 million the Dodgers are paying him . Price will be a lot more then Lucchesi who has a low base and not a very high point.
why would anyone use price as a bench mark for anything. .. he is a erratic and unpredictable pitcher…. He gets on a role and he is 30+million. .. he goofs off and just plays child video games and he like worthless boy …. that is the gamble LA is taking with him..
best you use a more consistent player as benchmark … even that is not quite right as value is only value as measured by the willingness of the teams to deal.. their needs assign value of a player to them …
why would anyone use price as a bench mark for anything. .. he is a erratic and unpredictable pitcher…. He gets on a role and he is 30+million. .. he goofs off and just plays child video games and he like worthless boy …. that is the gamble LA is taking with him..
best you use a more consistent player as benchmark … even that is not quite right as value is only value as measured by the willingness of the teams to deal.. their needs assign value of a player to them …
why would anyone use price as a bench mark for anything. .. he is a erratic and unpredictable pitcher…. He gets on a role and he is 30+million. .. he goofs off and just plays child video games and he like worthless boy …. that is the gamble LA is taking with him..
best you use a more consistent player as benchmark … even that is not quite right as value is only value as measured by the willingness of the teams to deal.. their needs assign value of a player to them …
“A month ago someone posted the actual rule,”
I’m hoping that was me. I was posting this before the LAD. When it looked like SD, I thought Myers was a perfect piece coming back (before Moreland too, but it doesn’t matter much).
Atl-
Good points. You articulated this whole Myers debate and the differing valuation of his contract from both teams perspective in a way that any prospective reader could follow. I wish we could somehow favorite top comments to make them easier to refer to when someone is confused or being arrogantly wrong.
I think he was auditioning for the Saturday evening job at MLBTR. He certainly summarized things in a better way and fewer words than I could have.
The pads would be idiots to give up ANY talent just to unload Myers. But then again, look at their GM.
Why else would Boston take a crap contract? To be nice?
This is how salary dumps work.
Don’t think of in terms of talent, but rather in contracts. If, for example, the SDP find someone to take the entire contract, then they have $23M to spend on another player.
It’s the equivalent of Myers + Campusano for Grandal.
The Padres would have to give up talent to unload Myers contract, that’s the whole point. Padres arent going to get anyone to take Myers straight up so they offer a kicker to sweeten the deal.
Myers/Lucchesi for JBJ is not a terrible deal for either side.
Myers/SP Espinoza/C Hedges/OF Cordero for your C Vasquez and 250 tickets to Hair for visiting San Diego fans.
I hope we just keep Myers for 2020 save our young talent to see what they can do, its not a fire sale except Fowler(owner) stated last Nov. he wants Myers gone.
Depends on who else is included. Padres might take 1 year of JBJ or Moreland for example which makes the hit minimal (3 million for soft cap purposes)
Moreland has zero defensive versatility and can only play 1B and the Padres already have Hosmer.
There is NO type of salary cap in baseball. Luxury tax and salary caps are completely different. If you don’t understand that it’s OK, but don’t argue or debate things your ignorant about. PERIOD
“don’t argue or debate things **you’re ignorant about.”
The irony is overwhelming me, lol.
Everyone knows that there is not a hard cap in baseball. And typically, folks refer to the primary $208M ‘cap’.
Can we all just agree that ‘cap’ equates to ‘luxury tax cap’, so we can save a gazillion seconds not having to type all the out?
You seem to have totally missed the fact that salary cap and the $208MM luxury tax line are widely used interchangeably here on MLBTR comment boards. Call it a community custom. You can stand on principle but it makes you look like an annoying outcast stickler. There was an enormous conversation on this topic earlier in this thread and the custom won. Deal with it.
It’s a bit like when a pitcher pitches a one-third of an inning. People will refer to that as 58.1 IPs, for example, even though it is technically 58.33.
But everyone in the world knows that it is the same thing.
So if the Padres pay 30M the tax hit is 3.8M per year…
Lol what
wow. what does the rockstar have up his sleeve?
Preller knows he’s on the hot seat. I can see him making bad deals and giving away prospects just to say F.U. to San Diego on his way out the door. Just look at what he was going to give up for one year of Betts … Look at what he gave up for Grisham … and Pham … He’s not even close to getting any real, long term value back in most of his deals.
Yeah, that would be a brilliant move for him, career-wise. Dude…always bad takes.
If he sees it as a lst ditch effort out of desperation, it’s a perfectly reasonable and possible outcome. For thinking people, that’s a hot take.
*last* ditch effort
He’s not doing that. I don’t like the deals either, but that doesn’t mean they are necessarily bad deals. I like Urias, but I wouldn’t argue hard if someone thought he would not adjust to MLB pitching. And Grisham is not without talent.
And i like Renfroe more than Pham, but Renfroe also has way more holes in his swing. These two trades look a bit lopsided, but also contain an element of prioritizing the next two years as opposed to the next four years.
@JoeBrady so you don’t like Urias.
So you don’t like Urias.
————————-
Well, I posted ‘I like Urias’. Are you implying an unwritten ‘don’t’ in there somewhere?
@Joe Brady…
You said “I like Urias, but…” The word “but” literally means what preceded it is untrue, “used to introduce a phrase or clause contrasting with what has already been mentioned.”
So I am going to call a spade a spade. You’re a Urias hater.
You’re losing it. I said I like Urias, but would understand if others didn’t.
It might be time for you to step away from the keyboard for a bit.
@JoeBrady whatever you say, Urias hater.
Seek help. I’m serious. I’ve seen people get way too wrapped up on these on-line opinions sites.
@JoeBrady oh hi! So I heard you’re a Urias hater.
Nick Senzel goes to Padres in three team trade for one of Friars young RP, and George Arias to Reds, Myers and Campusano, along with Quantrill to Sox, Sox send one of their top 25 prospect back to Friars along with a roster utility player..
Disappointment
say sike right now
Psych
Ok, this I’d like to hear more about.
Preller’s gonna do something real stupid before he gets fired
He already signed Hosmer.
100%. That signing alone is a fireable offense.
Fred means another really stupid thing.
Give him somewhat of a pass. He didn’t sign harper and let Philly sign that prima donna.
Hasn’t he already done enough real stupid?
Well, the good news is he wasn’t able to give away a bunch of talent for a one year rental of Mookie Betts. That would have been overwhelmingly stupid for the franchise. In fact, that’s the best deal he ever made – by not being able to make it.
Do it if you can get Quantrill and plug him in as a 5th starter. Could use a right-handed bat in the outfield and at the corners. Roughly 10 million a year for that wouldn’t be awful if you can pick up some prospect capital at the same time.
Heck no!
Ok. Take him. He will end up being a reliever anyways. I’ll take Nintendo
What in the pointless hell is this crap
JBJ 11 mil goes.
Myers 11 mil comes, PLUS young guys.
Probably a three-team trade cuz I don’t see how the Padres want Jackie Bradley jr. But the Sox angle is they would benefit-same salary but get a couple of young pieces for their previously crappy farm system. Win win.
JBJ can be cut for 30-days or 60-day pay during spring training. His salary is only guaranteed on Opening Day.
But I assume BOS doesn’t want to cut him for optics. ♂️
Absolutely nobody would cut JBJ. He’s a limited asset due to lack of control and inconsistency, but still an asset at a position teams care about.
Well they just dumped Margot so they could use a defensive outfielder. JBJ is a pretty valuable player
JBJ has less than zero value at his current contract.
Yates, Myers, and Quantrill for JBJ?
I don’t think the Pads want to trade their closer.
##%%#!!&#^$^!! No way your getting Yates for the table scraps the Sox have.
You do realize the soxs still have a good team
@ towinagain
Do us a favor and look at the Sox lineup numbers before spouting rubbish. Particularly JDM, Bogey and Devers.
Ya nincompoop.
towinagain meant that JBJ is the red sox’s table scraps, not that the whole team is table scraps.
They just traded for a closer about as good as Yates. It would be a salary dump, most likely to get KB and try to save Preller’s job.
They attach Yates desirable contract to Myers undesirable one to get some money to add KB, I think. KB and Pagan helps you win more games than Myers and Yates.
The Padres aren’t trading Yates for a salary dump
What if the deal for KB is agreed to but Preller just has to find, let’s say, 18.6M in the budget?
Padres should trade Yates now or later
A bad team has no need for a closer; But they’d be smart to hang onto yates until the ASG to get max value.
Please stop. This would be dumber than dumb.. Yates could net us a bounty of top 100 prospects.
Top 100 prospect not prospects.
And SD doesn’t need more Top 100 prospect. Preller needs a .500 or better season to save his job.
Keep in mind Yates is a free agent after this season so that delutes his value somewhat.
I thought you already had enough top prospects to overtake LA soon??
Bradley sucks
So does Myers. That’s the point. 1 year of a player who sucks for 3 years of a player who sucks. This is what big market teams do.
The Red Sox main target is and has been Campusano … id guess any Wil Myers deal must include him
Hedges and Myers for your C Vasquez.
When the 3 little piggies fly.
The Red Sox aren’t trading for any rentals unless it’s someone whose contract is underwater and allows them to add prospects in the trade so Yates is out.
Who would the Sox send to the Padres?
JBJ or Eovaldi, I’d assume. Probs JBJ since he a one-year deal and SD can use a CF
I could see it being both of them to be honest but who knows with Bloom he’s a clown
Eovaldi isn’t going anywhere.
cash
1 year of jbj for 3 years of Myers + prospect. Pretty simple.
If it turns into a 3-team trade things get a bit more complicated, but the value in concept is still there.
He is gonna clear space. Then go after Arenado.
KB more likely.
where does Arenado fit in San Diego?
Doesn’t at all. The goal seems to be Lindor to Cincy, Senzel to Padres, bunch ‘o prospects to Cleveland.
If I’m a SD fan I’m more than a little leery of this. Cleveland will want some serious names for Lindor.
As an SD fan, I’m leery of ANYTHING that Myers does. For my money, i just give him an outright release. He has negative trade value.
Cleveland won 93 games in 2019 despite many key injuries. They are not trading Francisco Lindor for a bunch of prospects that are not MLB ready.
Freddy Galvis, would go to Cleveland in the deal.
Freddy Galvis? That is very funny.
Nowhere, unless if they moved Tatis to second and Machado to short.
The only place Arenado fits in SD is the visitor’s locker room and dugout.
Don’t get the comments so far when we don’t know who else Boston is getting or who they’d give up. Padres want to be rid of Myers’ contract, who wouldn’t? That’s just one piece of this deal. I want to find out the rest before I decide if one team is being dumb.
This is the internet, hyrax; there’s no need to have any actual information before arriving at opinions that must be shared!
Lol!
This is pure BS. Don’t do it Padres. This isn’t for Mookie Betts or Price its a #$%*@^$ salary dump. The Padres would trade Myers and top prospects for the Sox to take on payroll?
Wait the Sox would take on payroll? Why did they trade Betts to the Dodgers?
Make up trade for the sign stealing scandal. The Sox gave away Betts to the Dodgers as a peace offerring of sorts.
This is garbage. DO NOT TRADE WITH THE SOX, PADRES.
I’d hardly call Verdugo and Downs and getting out of half of Price’s deal a garbage return for just one year of Betts. It’s a white flag for this year, no doubt, but those two for six or seven years could be more valuable than one year of Betts would be.
And there is still a possibly the Sox sign Betts next year. Either way, as much as I hate losing Betts, getting Verdugo, Downs and Wong for a potential one year rental is worth it.
Wong won’t amount to anything, but you are right on the other 2. Boston could and i’d debate should end up winning that trade. Dodger fan here
Yates, Myers, and Quantrill for JBJ clears $19M for 2020 and allows them to take on KB salary without increasing their payroll. Might be the play here.
Heck no!!!!! The Padres would be getting screwed by the Sox.
How so?
Why would the Padres do this? They’re not going to trade Yates for this. And JBJ basically has negative value at his salary. So Yates and Quantril, and taking on JBJ with negative trade value, just to move $10 million a year for 3 years on Myers? And what do the Red Sox have that would get them KB? I don’t get any of this.
Unless, you’re suggesting the Pads getting KB. They certainly have the pieces. Although that doesn’t change all the things wrong with the rest of it.
With Devers, the Red Sox have no need for KB.
No way in hell they trade Yates for just the return of JBJ and getting out of half of Myers deal. Yates is a far more valuable trade chip than that. As for Bryant, I think that’s a mistake, too. Last year, they were 36 games out of 1st and the Dodgers got better. Even if all of their young guys hit on their talent right away, they’re not making the playoffs this year, so they waste one year of Bryant. That leaves them with one year left of Bryant and they’ll have had to give up several prospects from their vaunted farm and pay Bryant close to fair market value for his last arb year. It’s just not worth it.
Well, if they are getting KB and their owner won’t raise the payroll his 18,6M, then Preller has to find 18.6M. Half of Myers is 11 and yates is 7. That’s 18M right there. Maybe San Diego can take on JBJ and cut him, because I think arbitration salaries are not guaranteed until Opening Day or something. Or maybe Boston can make this deal and cut JBJ themselves since they have Pillar for center.
Yates is the sweetener to clear half of Myers, which allows them to take on KB’s salary without increasing payroll. And Pagan steps in for Yates with minimal detriment to the bullpen. SD wins more with KB and Pagan than Yates and Myers.
Who says they can’t add payroll? And you don’t get rid of a good player for a salary dump. If you trade him, you take fair market value for him, or very close, in a trade. If you are San Diego, and this weird set of assumed facts were true, you wouldn’t just send Yates to Boston for nothing, you would trade him to someone else for actual value. This makes less sense than the more you explain it
So Quantril, plus maybe a middle tier prospect, should be enough to move half of Myers contract to Boston. No one would likely take JBJ for free, because he adds either negative value, or zero value if you cut him. You would likely have to give up something just to get rid of JBJ. Adding JBJ makes the trade worse for San Diego. Yates has a ton of actual value. Why would San Diego give him to Boston basically for free, even if they needed to cut salary, when they could just trade him to another team for his actual value???
“You don’t get rid of a good player for a salary dump”. Did you see the Mookie Betts trade? That’s exactly what you do in a salary dump. The team getting dumped on isn’t taking the dump to be nice. They are getting something they want and can use later.
SD traded for the Yates replacement last week.
Boston got some value in return for Betts. What I should’ve said was “You don’t get rid of a good player for nothing for a salary dump,” which is what you are suggesting. Boston got two top prospects and got out of half of Price’s deal for 1 year of Betts. They didn’t do it for nothing.
what a dumb take.
I thought the same Theo has history making deals with the padres..but my thought was cubs would take Ian that would be 4 mill off the books and leave them just to eat 4 mill with the exchange of Myers to the Sox…and added bonus cubs have a back plan at second in case nico needs more time in the minors
No way they are sending Yates to Boston in this deal; but as a Sox fan I would certainly welcome it. A JBJ for Myers and Quantrill deal makes some sense for Boston but not sure if that is enough for SD if Boston is only taking on 1/2 the Myers deal. I believe SD’s CBT number would actually go up this year with this deal as Bradley is making $11M and Myer’s CBT number is $14M of which $7M will stay with SD
Can’t JBJ be cut before Opening Day with a minimal luxury tax hit? He might go to SD for SD to cut him so Boston can save face?
Or JBJ goes to CHC in a KB package?
JBJ IS WORTHLESS TO EVERYONE. HE HAS NEGATIVE VALUE.
JBJ is terrible offensively and his numbers even went down defensively in 2019. No thanks. He is overpaid.
You can say all the exact same about Myers, can’t you?
Yep. The problem doesn’t come with that. The problem comes when you try to include Yates and Quantril for the back two years of Myers deal. Because its nowhere close to the same value. Half of Myers deal isn’t that much money, and it isn’t that far from Myers actual value, which could be $4-5 million
Boston has to get value back to make taking on Myers worthwhile. You’re right, Myers is about Pence or Pillar level production, so that’s $4-5M per year, but Boston would agree to pay him $11M per year, so something has to make up for about $18M in value. Quantrill isn’t enough. Either a starter prospect or Yates gets this deal done. But half of Myers and Yates = KB salary wise and Padres save top pitching prospects to send to Chicago (might only take one and position player at this point).
Even with one year of control, Yates is way to big of a piece here. Quantril, sure, you may even get a Michael Baez as well. But SD is not taking away from their current team in a significant way to do that, even if they get Bryant.
Chicago is looking for a franchise-altering return for Bryant. Because they are still a contender they can hold if they don’t get that. Being in Chicago, i can tell you that they don’t need to move him for payroll, I’ll bet the odds are 85% they keep him the whole year, without cutting any other payroll, providing they are at least somewhat in the race
Except Myers had a couple very good seasons.All Star level seasons.
JBJ is all defense and no offense….like Margot.
Myers is still young….there is at least the possibility he will hit again.
Where do people get their info? Myers has exactly the same number all star appearances as Bradley, Myers had a negative war last year too while at least Bradley post a 2 war, and that’s playing in the AL, his average prob rises a bit in the NL. 20 homeruns/60+ rbi’s isn’t nothing either. He can put up numbers, he’s just very inconsistent. Bradley also just won a gold glove the year befor, his defense isn’t dropping.
You’re only figuring in his cap hit, real money is a whole different thing.
All-star? Once. Barely. And overall, it was NOT an “all-star level season.” Not even close.
Have you had any success trying to trade coal for diamonds? JBJ isn’t worth more than a mid-tier prospect or a fringe big leaguer, and you want Myers, Quantrill, AND Yates?? Unreal.
I really think that Chaim Bloom wants to screw Preller and the Padres over the Pomeranz/ Espinoza trade.
The same Espinoza that got shut down a month after the trade and had to require 2 TJ surgerys and still hasn’t recovered? That the trade we’re talking about?
Bromojoe, don’t lie. Espinoza finished the season fine the year he was traded, and the forearm tightness that after three months was found to be a UCL tear likely developed in the offseason or spring training. If Espinoza was feeling something prior to that, I haven’t seen it reported. Boston was willing to trade Espinoza precisely because these kinds of things happen with very young pitching prospects. It’s sad for everyone, but Boston has zero blame there.
Bloom didn’t make that trade. Dumb-rowski did. And Pads gave Sox damaged goods
You’re either delusional or a moron. Padres got the damaged goods. hello!
Espinoza was 100% healthy when he was traded. He was also 18 years old and trying to throw every ball through the catcher’s mitt which is a recipe for TJS. Pomeranz on the other hand was damaged goods…which Preller hid from Boston and got suspended by MLB for doing so.
Bloom wasn’t even with the Red Sox when that trade was executed. He was still in the front office of Tampa Bay until this offseason
DrDan75…..where have you been the last two years?
Pomeranz performed for the the Sox and is still a good ML player.
Espinoza is still to date years away from the majors.
The Sox didn’t get screwed at all….
The Padres still have nothing to show for the All Star LH starter they traded to Bos.
Padres lied on Pomeranz’s paperwork. Espinoza passed a physical, it’s nowhere near the same.
Make up trade for the sign stealing scandal? That’s hilarious.
“Why did they trade Betts to the Dodgers”? Because they wanted to get something substantial for him before he walks to free agency next year, and because the team already wanted to get under the luxury tax it made sense to use him to accomplish both goals, that’s why.
@redsoxu571 if they are trying to contend in 2020 then getting something substantial for him before he walks and getting under the luxury tax don’t matter. A championship is worth more than anyone the Red Sox got for Betts. And now, Betts’ production just has to be replaced, which will cost Boston a lot more than what Betts is making in 2020.
… unless you are ready to admit that the Red Sox are sunk for 2020.
You seem to be afraid of the RS FO.
So, Padres, Red Sox, and Cleveland.
Red Sox get Myers plus prospects from SD.
San Diego gets 2 years of Lindor and pay half Myers’ remaining salary.
Does Cleveland get prospects? Major league talent? What does San Diego and Boston give Cleveland?
Don’t think Cleveland is giving up Lindor. Seemed like they wanted to trade either Kluber and Lindor and chose Kluber, which is defensible since he was their No. 3 or No. 4 starter. This smells like a way to clear salary space for KB (who went to college in SD), who the Padres would play in LF.
where does Lindor fit in San Diego?
My thoughts exactly unless padres are giving up tatis. Just a homer throwing together idiotic deals.
Mr. Mindless — I’m not the one who brought up Lindor. Are you calling the writer of the article (who is using sources) to be a Homer?
In the scenario proposed, Tatis or Lindor would move to second. Profar would be utility. Not that complicated. Also know it likely won’t happen. This is a rumor site. It is more of a fantasy.
No team is going to trade a boatload of talent to get Lindor and then move him to 2B. That’s idiotic.
Don’t blame the messenger. The scenario of going after Lindor is clearly presented in the article above. Okay smart guy, if they are actually exploring trade options for Lindor, what do YOU think San Diego would do if they got him? They could also move Tatis to second, which I ALSO proposed. And just like you, I believe it is unlikely. BUT, Lindor to the Padres is clearly presented in the above article.
Tipsy McStagger knows nothing.
Mindless —
cbssports.com/mlb/news/why-a-francisco-lindor-trad…
Jim the goat uses insults because he is mad. I presented an argument a while back that resonated with more baseball fans than his own silly nonsense. He’s out for blood.
Oh, Jim. Look! Another article speaking of a Lindor to Padres trade:
cbssports.com/mlb/news/why-a-francisco-lindor-trad…
Tipsy, the CBS article that you quoted looked at a possible trade from the Padres side, but he had no clue as to what it would take on the Cleveland side. All he mentioned was Margot as a piece to the Indians. Cleveland would not want or need Margot, another light hitting center fielder. Cleveland already has 4 center fielders on their forty man roster. If you are going to quote an article, quote one that is written by someone with half a brain, because the CBS writer quoted has no brain at all.
Jim refuses to believe that the RS can be competitive this year. Absolutely nothing will change his mind. And it wouldn’t matter if we received a one-year throw-in that was great, and could be traded at the deadline.
If the throw-in in the Betts deal was Betts himself, he still wouldn’t want him.
@Tipsy McStagger not insults, just facts. I’ve seen your comments on other articles. I don’t like to use the word delusional but oh my God.
Preller can try all he wants. But it would take parting with prospects you would call untouchable to get Lindor. Again, the Indians don’t want or need to trade Lindor. Trading him means pulling the plug on the 2020 and 2021 seasons. It is that posturing that will allow the Indians to demand a king’s ransom. It’s not like the Marlins with JT Realmuto where everyone on planet Earth knew they had to trade him.
And trying to shed Myers in the trade will make it much harder. I would venture to say impossible.
@JoeBrady if the RS are trying to contend this year why did they trade Betts?
And that one-year throw in will have much less value at the deadline than he would now for reasons that should be obvious.
@jimthegoat:
There’s more than one way to contend for the postseason, and keeping every talented player under control ISN’T the only way to build a successful team.
Last offseason TB released, not traded, RELEASED CJ Cron.
FYI, Tampa Bay made the postseason in the following year.
Sometimes addition by subtraction works, not only when it eliminates an underpreformer or a clubhouse cancer, but because even if you give up a quality guy it allows you to do other things that have a bigger improvement than what you had standing pat.
Don’t let facts get in the way of your particular worldview though
Cron’s production was easily replaceable. Betts’ is not.
The Red Sox did not get anything that will help them in 2020 more than Betts would have. Andrew Friedman would not have made that trade because it would have meant he made his team markedly WORSE for both 2020 and beyond.
The Red Sox can be competititive without Betts by freeing up payroll that they can then use to add PITCHING, which is what they really need to make a run at the wild card. They scored runs like the Dodgers last year and gave up runs like the White Sox. Betts doesn’t pitch and even without him, they have 2-3 legit MVP candidates in that lineup.
The goal of the game is not to have the most great players. It is to win games, and you win games by scoring more runs than you lose. Scoring was not a problem for the Red Sox last year and it won’t be a problem for them even without Betts.
Tampa also cut Corey Dickerson. Remaining flexible to add what you need as the season goes on (and in future seasons) is the way to build a consistent winner. The problem with keeping Betts and Price was there was no room in the budget for adding pitching without losing international signing money and dropping their first round draft pick 10 spots (i.e. severely hurting future talent acquisition). If the Red Sox were competitive with the Yankees, that may have been worth it. But they weren’t. Their compeition is the Rays.
There is no one the Red Sox could sign for the $27m Betts is making this year that will win them more games than Mookie Betts. If there was, the Dodgers would have gone out and signed that player rather than giving up prospects and controllable MLB players with upside for Betts.
It’s not like that. Boston now has payroll they can use to add pitching, either through grabbing Yates (or other relievers) from San Diego or adding rentals in July from all the teams that fall out of the race. Offense is not the reason Boston missed the playoffs last year or the reason they might miss the playoffs this year. Their pitching is trash, particularly their bullpen.
Does trading Mookie hurt their odds of winning a championship? Absolutely. But you have to make the playoffs first before you can win a World Series.
We have to see what (if anything) they do with the payroll flexibility before we completely judge the Mookie trade.
“It’s not like that. Boston now has payroll they can use to add pitching…”
Cool. What pitcher is available for $27m that would win the Red Sox more games in 2020 than Mookie Betts would have?
“But you have to make the playoffs first before you can win a World Series.”
Yes and trading Mookie makes that demonstrably less likely.
Plenty of different combinations of pitchers, Yates is 7. Not sure on all the rental starters. Maybe Stroman from the Mets. Gausman from SF if you want a swingman. A whole bunch of different options.
BOSTON’S HITTING IS NOT THE PROBLEM. THEY WERE THIRD IN RUNS SCORED LAST YEAR . AND. MISSED. THE. PLAYOFFS.
Stroman isn’t available. Yates really isn’t either. And that still wouldn’t be enough to make up the 7 wins they lost by trading Mookie. If it was, LA wouldn’t have traded Verdugo, Downs and Wong for him they would have just spent that money on the guys you mentioned and kept the prospects.
Nah. Betts isn’t 7 wins on his own. At most he’s the 7 wins he has minus the 4 wins Verdugo gives em. If you mess with WAR like that, which I don’t.
Dodgers traded for Mookie to win the World Series.
You’re not understanding the difference between regular season and postseason here.
And there’s no telling who becomes available in July. If Boston is competitive at the deadling, they have money to add pitching. They have money to add pitching now, but it’s pretty late in the offseason for that.
But according to you all of those rentals the Red Sox could supposedly get for the $27m that Betts is making will help a team win the World Series more than Betts would.
Jim, you make a fallacious argument, again, regarding mookie.
1) your argument presupposes that verdugo will contribute 0.0 war to the redsox in 2020. Mookie could’ve broken an arm or leg in 2020 and contributed 0.0 war as well. Reality is, in just over a half season in LA one piece of the return, verdugo, put up above 3 war and his spray chart is favorable to fenway which may help even more – lots of high fly balls to LF that can clear the monster, low fast line drives to the cavernous RF. Assuming verdugo returns to full health even halfway through the year is likely to give right back 3 or more war right there, half what is lost.
2) offense wasn’t last year’s problem. Boston in 2019 hit 245 hrs, with 901 runs scored.
Mookie hit 29hrs, and 80rbi. He also reached base at a .391 clip hitting .295.
Verdugo in a half year hit 12 hrs and 44rbi. He reached base at a .342 clip hitting .294. You extrapolate that for a full year and you get the same .ba with 24hrs, not counting the fenway effect, and 88rbi, not counting the fenway effect.
Verdugo projected to extra rbi before accounting how fenway should help his numbers.
Even .40 better in OBP only means an extra 16 base runners over 600 appearances. Not all 16 would even score. It’s a pretty much a wash, and they say he’ll be healthy
The addition of pillar creates a unified jbj/pillar platoon that each player’s strong side split had an ops of .850+. A HUGE upgrade from what JBJ had last year playing fulltime.
The much bigger issue for boston was the 800+ runs allowed.
But it appears the “lost production”, on paper, has already been replaced.
And since it timed out before my edit went in, yes, the math *appears* off but is consistent. Also I couldn’t correct typos.
In 500 PA .040 better OBP means reaching base 20 more times, but not becoming a base runner for purposes of scoring more runs/rbis for others.
Mookie had more hrs than verdugo would project same season, not accounting for fenway effects.
When mookie hits a hr, he counts as reaching basee BUT he already scored himself. He isn’t and cannot be a base runner someone else could try to drive in and get an rbi from.
So while mookie would have the higher OBP you deduct how many extra times he was already off the basepaths as one of his own rbis…
500pa × .040 obp is 20 times reaching base. Deduct for the 5 hrs mookie scored himself get 15 baserunners. Add one extra to be reasonable for likelihood of exceeding 500PAs.
16 likely baserunners that could be scored per year by other batters.
That doesn’t likely cost boston much compared to the 2019 season.
@AtlSoxFan so if Betts’ production has already been replaced. If Verdugo on his own will be about as good as Betts in 2020 as you say, not to mention shedding Price and Verdugo having 5 years of control, why did Andrew Friedman make the trade?
We’ve gone over that exact same question in prior threads Jim. And same answer.
1) they added price @ 16m/yr into the rotation. Not an ace, but has value and was an upgrade. Makes LA much better.
2) frees up maeda to get traded for graterol – potential lights out setup man in 2020 and closer in the future
3) as a result of the graterol trade they get another prospect and comp rd draft pick (which bonus pool increase allowing above slot/underslot manipulations elsewhere, in addition to the comp balance pick if mookie leaves.)
4) considering other players on the farm verdugo is somewhat expendable
5) sometimes organizations sour on a player for non-production related reasons, in boston cite to castillo who has sat in purgatory despite solid numbers and could’ve been called up for 2020 instead of tendering jbj at similar cost
6) part of making up the equal production requires having added the production of someone else into the equation – taking on more salary by signing pillar which wasn’t an option before the mookie trade due to risk of rising to the highest level of cbt penalties and losing draft pick slots, intl bonus money, etc before freeing up financial ability. That addition wasn’t possible for LA but was a platoon opportunity for BOS, and makes up for the slightly lower production than betts.
7) LA with its OF set and stacked didn’t have anywhere to slot in anyone on the FA available to be a platoon partner to further improve their WAR like BOS did… instead they had to get a slightly higher WAR replacement to swap in.
8) to excite and energize the fanbase, generate buzz, increase season ticket, merchandising, and season tv game package sales. If you don’t think those picked up after bringing mookie to town you’re crazy.
9) because they could, and, it’s a move thats a chain mail glove slap across the face to the rest of mlb saying “come get us”. The NYY got to make noise this offseason. Plenty of people wondered what LA would after bowing out in the NLDS, and all their earlier big ticket FA moves fell just short. Mlb is entertainment, and LA is the entertainment city of the USA. They expect high theatre, and they’re getting it.
10) it just plain didn’t cost much. No big longterm contract. No prospect from atop the pipeline or atop the org depth chart for the position. Just affordable.
11) an entire year to woo a top generational talent of MLB, let him experience firsthand your city, fans, ballclub, and operations the way no mere free agent pitch ever could.
How’s that for starters?
1) But according to you the players they gave up/could have signed in FA for the money they are paying him would win them more games. You can’t go back on that now.
2) They didn’t need to trade for Price to trade Maeda.
3 And that helps them in 2020 how?
4) Doesn’t matter. According to you he would have won the Dodgers about as many games in 2020 as Betts. Not to mention for cheaper and controlled longer.
5) Boston refused to call up Rusney because of a loophole that has since been closed which keeps his salary from being counted towards the Red Sox’s CBT hit. Everyone knows that.
6) Yes the Dodgers could have signed Pillar. And according to you it would have won them more games than trading for Betts
7) Neither did BOS. At least not until they traded Betts.
8) Padres tried this in 2015. And the Blue Jays in 2013. And the Marlins in 2012. How’d that work out for them?
9) Just because they can doesn’t mean they should. And according to you they shouldn’t have.
10) Well according to you it cost them players who are just as good as Betts and Price and cheaper and controlled more than just one year.
11) There is no evidence that that provides any benefit to a team. If anything there is evidence to the contrary.
#takeaseat
Jim, maybe something you wrote there somehow makes sense to you… but none of them do in the real world.
You asked why would Friedman of the dodgers, make the trade. Thats what you asked me. Those reasons above you could pick and choose from.
Facts are:
1) I’m not walking back anything. Who did I say the LAD could’ve signed in free agency would win the LAD more games than keeping verdugo, downs, and wong? Remember, YOU ASKED ME ABOUT FRIEDMAN. Price wasn’t a FA that I’m aware of, your comment makes no sense.
2) I didn’t say they NEEDED price first, I said it freed them up. Maeda was a proven SP and a great depth piece. Slotting Price in bumps the other options down the food chain, replacing the depth piece that was lost, whiLe giving a stronger option where he is slotted in.
3) Again, you asked why FRIEDMAN makes the trade. No requirement for a 2020 benefit, although, arguably the comp pick from MIN is in the 2020 amateur draft so….
4) yes, it does. Again it comes down to being an mlb manager isn’t the same as playing fantasy baseball on yahoo where you just start whoever you want. You’ve only got so many roster spots, so, if you can move someone and gain a series of benefits, and that player has more value sort or long term to another team than to your own you capture that excess value when you can. Not every player has the same value to every team.
5) this year the cbt hit to calling up rusney for his final year is not much different than that of jbj. There is more to not calling up someone than that. However, YOU ASKED ME WHY FRIEDMAN MIGHT MAKE THE TRADE. Boston’s motivations with castillo are really immaterial to the notion LA may have soured on verdugo in some way. You respose is unresponsive to the actual point.
6) LAD could’ve signed Pillar…. to play where? Pillar makes sense in boston because JBJ has an abysmal platoon split. JBJ isn’t on the dodgers, and thus, doesn’t give the combined .850 OPS because… wait for it… there isn’t a JBJ to pair him with in LA! Not every player has the same fit, or usefulness, to every organization.
7) of course boston did!?!?! It’s been with JBJ as a platoon the whole time? Nothing to do with betts leaving, pillar always fit like a jigsaw puzzle with JBJ whose been there for years. It’s not something that was created by mookie leaving. BUT AGAIN, YOU ASKED WHY FRIEDMAN WOULD TRADE. reason is, no role for pillar on the stacked dodgers team. To increase the combination of 3rd SP through price, and a bit of OF war they brought in betts. It was a shIP one out to get slightly better, plus price. Thats the LAD perspective combined with other points listed above/repeated here.
8) show me the club financials from those years as well as other to compare to and we’ll talk. but, they aren’t synonymous with the LAD market, so, I doubt smaller markets with less dedicated fan bases like those are exactly analagous.
9) you say nothing here. Why shouldn’t they, and, where did I say it?
10) I’m not sure where you claim I said any such thing? I said that verdugo, plus complementary moves boston made, that fit in boston, but wouldn’t fit in LA, wouldn’t work the same in la, and wouldn’t have the same value to la, equalized the lost production of mookie betts… but thats about all I said about that. I also never said anything about price. But the players do make a cheaper salary, so what? LAD can afford to spend more and don’t care if they do. As the trade shows.
11) Again, you say nothing here. Players have gone on to sign with teams they traded to based on enjoying time there. Teams have decided guys aren’t right for them and showed no real interest in bringing them back too. Again, it’s an incentive when coupled with some of the other reasons why FRIEDMAN would consider making the trade.
Having cleared your smears and misinformation, I expect I wash my hands with this exchange. There’s no point in going further due to the type of responses you put out
Too long. Didn’t real.
Again, who will help a team more in 2020: Betts and Price or Verdugo, Downs and Wong? If the former, then that proves my point that the Red Sox aren’t trying to contend in 2020. If the latter, then Andrew Friedman needs to be fired for negligence.
My point is simply that Lindor to the Padres has been bandied about. Is it unlikely? Yes! Was it brought up in this very article that we are commenting on? Yes! All I did was run with it to see what such a deal would look like. Don’t take it personally. Just having a little fun.
I didn’t take anything personally?
I wouldn’t go as far as to say that Lindor for Myers could never happen. But the prospect cost would make Padres fans cry.
That comment wasn’t to you Jim. I should have directed it. Oh well.
So what? Red Sox have 4 flags flying forever since 2004.. If it takes a minor reset…who cares? Seems like the only ones saying no are the ones minus their own flags.
Trades don’t need to fit on MLBTR
Would take some ninja GM’ing to shed Myers and get Lindor in the same trade. Especially when Cleveland is actually trying to contend this year so you’d have to give them enough prospects to agree to pull the plug on the next 2 seasons, not just enough prospects for Lindor.
It’s JBJ. If the Friars pick up half the salary that will be offset by unloading him. The Sox
would be saving the Padres around 20M since JBJ is a free agent after the year, and that’s why a prospect comes back.
Could get Espinoza back?
And can’t JBJ be cut and paid practically nothing? that’s easier for SD to do than Boston, optics-wise.
Not 100% sure on this one but pretty sure that rule doesn’t apply to players with 5 or more years of service time.
I think they might have to add Yates to get Sox to take Myers. Sox would basically be undoing their financial flexibility they got by unloading Price.
Myers has no value to the Red Sox. Negative value even because he would cost money and hurt their draft position.
Yates* has no value to the Red Sox. We already knew Myers didn’t.
Hurt their draft position?! Boston is trying for a wild card spot. A top closer and a fifth starter help them with that goal. All for swapping out Myers for JBJ..
“Boston is trying for a wild card spot.”
Bull. If Boston was trying for a Wild Card spot in 2020 they wouldn’t have DARED trade Mookie Betts.
Nope. See above. The Red Sox need pitching. Couldn’t add pitching and keep Betts and Price without impairing future talent acquisition.
Boston offense will still be Top 5 in baseball even without Betts. Very few teams have something comparable to Xander, JDM, and Devers in the heart of their order.
There is no one, pitcher or otherwise, they could add for $27m that will win them more games than Mookie Betts would have. Let alone make up the 12 win deficit they need to make the playoffs this year. Especially when all the other teams fighting for AL wild card spots this season have made themselves markedly better.
It’s not one pitcher. $27M can buy a shitton of rentals (if they chose).
And those rentals combined won’t win the Red Sox more games than Betts would have.
Vegas dropped the BoSox win total ONE GAME after the Betts trade. Folks that have their jobs riding on this know that trade didn’t hurt their chances of winning regular season games in 2020 that much.
Too bad the game is played on the field and not on your little Excel spreadsheet.
In the real world, there is no way that trading the second best player in MLB only drops their win total by one.
Xander, JDM, Devers, Benny, and Verdugo are in the real world. About 25 teams would trade their offenses for those guys straight up.
And those guys still weren’t enough to get the Red Sox within pissing distance of the playoffs in 2019. And that was WITH Betts and Price putting up 9 WAR for the team.
how many runs do they lose by downgrading Betts to Verdugo? 50? They are a top 10 offense in the game no matter what they lost with Betts.
They just, you know, have to do that pitching thing, which I hear is pretty important.
You don’t think pitching is imporant. You think the team with the most All-Stars wins. That’s fine. Everyone has the right to be wrong.
No, the team that can score the most runs while allowing the fewest runs to score against them wins. And Betts helps them greatly on both fronts. Way more than anyone else who was available for that price. Otherwise, Friedman would have gone after someone else.
Nah. Under your theory, the Rays would not make the playoffs because they don’t have Mookie Betts and the Angels would make the playoffs because they have Mike Trout. Odd that that’s not how it works.
The Red Sox offense improved in 2019 from their championship year, but they lost more games. Why’s that?
OH, THEY GAVE UP 181 MORE RUNS!!!
@jpm9q3 no because the Rays have a strong enough rest-of-the-roster to make the playoffs without Betts. The Red Sox don’t.
The Angels obviously don’t have a strong enough rest-of-the-roster to make the playoffs even with Mike Trout. If he was 1 year out from FA and hellbent on going to FA like Betts he’d have been traded too.
So the rest of the roster matters for teams that don’t have Betts but teams that have Betts only need Betts? Hmm
That’s not what I said. Like at all.
I think that’s precisely what you said: Other teams can be better than Boston because they have better all around rosters, but even if Boston improves its roster, they can’t win because they don’t have Betts.
Boston hasn’t improved their roster this offseason. They have done the opposite.
They are rebuilding. Which yet again if they want to do that then that is completely fine.
That’s because you over value Betts. He is a small guy that will fade in the next 3 to 5 years. Which is why as a Red Sox fan, I am wary of going after him next off season for the money he is demanding.
Thank you. You’re the lone voice of reason from the looks of things
Myers plus campusano for eovaldi and a prospect wouldn’t be bad. Though I’m not sure anyone is saving any money. I don’t think JBJ has that much value to be and upgrade for what the Padres already have
JBJ and half of Myers is cost neutral for 2020, but savings for 2021 and 2022. I think JBJ can be cut for pennies before Opening Day, though. Or he can be sent to Chicago in a Kris Bryant deal.
JBJ has negative value though, including to Chicago, why would he help a Bryant deal? They’d have to give up more for Bryant if they had to take back JBJ…
@bencole if that’s the case why didn’t Boston non-tender JBJ?
They want to trade him and (worst case) they could cut him before Opening Day for very little expense. They don’t need to cut him now after Betts trade, though,
Adding Eovaldi to this trade means the Padres only save $5.5 million per year. They are not giving up Campusano for that little. Also, that leaves the Sox with essentially a 3 man rotation. They need more pitching not less.
Yes. It’s a JBJ for Myers swap with SD adding value on their end. SD can then trade JBJ somewhere for the stud they want or cut him for 30- or 60-days pay.
The thing is this deal only makes sense for SD if the cleared salary is immediately turned into a major contributor. Preller most likely won’t be there to benefit from future salary savings if he doesn’t get this team in third place and/or .500 soon.
Makes no sense at all…. who is going to pitch for Boston—- try again.
What the actual hell is boston’s front office doing. This has been the most inconsistent offseason strategy I’ve ever seen. It makes absolutely no sense.
Getting pitching. Yates for bullpen and Quantrill for rotation.
Or Quantrill and another pitching prospect for the rotation, but I’ve always thought SD getting Pagan signaled a Yates trade to unload Myers.
Actually it’s very consistent. Get under CBT and stockpile prospect capital, controllable assets. See homer bailey for downs/gray trade last season. If you have the salary space, use your financial resources to acquire prospects via taken on a bad contract is a good strategy.
Agreed. Why take on 3/$30M for Myers who will provide replacement level production? Does it really matter where they finish the year in the standings? Stockpile a bunch of minor-league OF deals and hope one figures it out is a much better option and flip him at the deadline to a contender.
Intriguing. I do not think that Boston has anything that SD needs so, like many posters here, I think a larger deal is in the works. Never a dull moment in SD!
its a selary dump. all they have that SD wants is the ability to take Myers’s salery
That doesn’t matter to Preller. Roster management has proven to be a weakness of his.
The only way the Red Sox do anything like this is to get a controlable starting Pitcher in the deal + another prospect to take on Myers and JBJ would have to go to take on Myers. Personally I would be asking for a combination of Baez, Morejohn + Myers for JBJ and and a Prospect.
Don’t count out Kirby Yates.
Preller isn’t stupid enough to trade for Jackie Bradley jr
JBJ can be cut for practically nothing before Opening Day, I believe. It would just be a bad look for Boston to do it.
He was stupid enough to trade for Matt Kemp and Melvin Upton Jr.
Sale??
I’ve been saying this for a while. However the Sox would be selling low. Unless he’s cooked and we get hosed again ala Espinoza
Are the Padres dumb enough to take on that contract?
Yes…next question.
As a long-time White Sox fan, I think Sale bounces back. His funky arm angle seems to have caught up with him in recent years, but if you look at his advanced metrics, last year seems to be bad luck as much as anything. His K rate was 13.3/9 and his FIP was 3.39. His walk rate was 2.3 vs a career rate of 2.1, so only slightly worse. Only outlier number was HR/9, which was 1.5 vs career of 0.9. He may not pitch 200 innings, but the 150-180 he does pitch will likely be quality.
Agreed. Several of his numbers are solid. And the bump on HR rate can at least partially if not wholly be attributable to the juiced ball. I think he bounces back too.
It’s Meyer and Quantrill for JD, and Sox eat 12.5 million per on Meyer. Then JD to White Sox for prospects and McCann
Teams aren’t allowed to bat 3 DH’s.
For the red sox it makes complete sense. For padres it makes sense, then they can make a trade for a front of the rotation starter or signing another big free agents next summer. Red sox get quantrill, campusano, arias plus what dodgers gave up for betts and price. By the time that meyers deal is up red sox with have cap space and youth on their side.
I’m failing to see where Senzel or Lindor factor into any of this. Obviously I get that they’re highly desired candidates but what is coming back to either club in return, short of a franchise #1 or 2 prospect?
All I’ve seen in this entire basement baseball conversation, is that the Reds should just give Senzel away for an outfielder who may not hit at the ML level, and an unnamed pitching prospect. Thank you, but a hard no…they’re trying to win the Central…
Which outfielder would that be? I don’t remember anyone suggesting an outfielder going back to the Reds. Most of what I’ve read is a combination of a multi-team trade involving the Reds giving up Senzel and obtaining Lindor.
And I’d be all for sending Senzel in a package for Lindor. Someone (a Friars fan no doubt), mentioned Arias and an unnamed starter (prospect) for Senzel…
Why in the world would Boston do this???
Add pitching, which they desperately need.
Prospects.
Again, the idea that the Sox were going to “drop back” or “surrender for 2020” was always nonsense. That, with the idea that they had some compulsion to get under the cap, was just short-sighted
They’re going to “re-image” (to borrow Dipoto’s phrase), and you can argue whether the moves are the right ones or wrong ones; i.e. did they get enough for whomever. But really, the financial matters are very secondary, They’re (a) a license to print money and (b) realize that it’s all about the brand, a brand that’s not going to be sacrificed for a year-ending leger “profit”. Because, if the brand shrinks, the profit is a myth. If other teams operated like that, MLB would be a lot healthier than it is.
Yeah I disagree. They will duck/reset the luxury tax for all good, legit reasons. They will do their darndest to compete as well but they will duck/reset. Period. At the same time it looks like they are interested in stock-piling prospects with whatever margin they have.
I believe San Diego wants to trade Myers, not enough to add Yates to see it done. I’m not at all sure, Boston still the least bit interested in adding Myers even with prospects thrown in.. I take this rumor with a grain of salt since it’s coming out of San Diego.’s media writers.
Here’s the info on what a team owes JBJ if they cut him before Opening day:
Players who are on arbitration (unless specified at the time of the agreement), Minor League or split contracts are not fully guaranteed their salaries.
Players on arbitration contracts who are cut on or before the 16th day of Spring Training are owed 30 days’ termination pay (based on the prorated version of his agreed-upon arbitration salary). A player cut between the 16th day and the end of Spring Training is owed 45 days’ termination pay (based on the prorated version of his agreed-upon arbitration salary). The arbitration salary becomes guaranteed if the player is on the 25-man roster when the season begins.
KB will not be traded before season starts…
I disagree. Cubs’ FO has to know they’ve done nothing to improve and last year the Cards and Brewers were better and this offseason, the Reds improved substantially. Unless they make some significant moves, they’ll be looking at another just above .500 season, and quite possibly the White Sox having a better record. KB has said the right things since the grievance was decided, but I have to believe it’s in both of their interests to part ways: fresh start for KB and getting prospects to bolster a weak farm system for the Cubs. I’ll be surprised if he’s still a Cub come the season opener.
While Myers makes $20.3 million a year his luxury tax number is only $13.3 million. If the Red Sox only play $10 million a year to Myers his luxury tax number is either $6.7 million or $3.3 million depending on how it’s calculated. The Red Sox are more concerned with the luxury tax than salary while the Padres are concerned with salary and don’t care about the luxury tax. They won’t come near it.
This is the right swap for these two teams.
And Sox get rid of JBJ, who SD can then cut for 30-days pay (or JBJ can go to Chicago in a KB trade).
Great points!
I would assume JBJ would be involved.
He has abiout a 60% chance of outhitting Benintendi, exactly a 4598205y2967y29586% of out hitting JBJ, and would presumably come with a Starting Pitcher. I say do it.
Rangers perhaps would take half of Myers salary for Mathis, Chavez and Hearns for Morejon or Báez, and Trammel or France. If SD included Yates Rangers send Burke or Heineman instead of Mathis and Hearns
KB will be traded to the nationals before the season starts u watch
This wouldn’t surprise me. Kieboom would be a good start on this deal, but the Nats would have to add more to get it done. I also wouldn’t be surprised to see the Braves taking him. They have such a deep system that there have to be guys they don’t think they’ll really miss that much.
So the Sox ship out Betts to save money only to take on a fringe starter’s albatross contract in a separate trade? That makes zero sense. That contract is worse than David Price’s contract, since Price at least provided decent on-field value.
They get pitching in this deal, which they desperately need.
Yeah, but he sealed his fate when he didn’t shut up about Eckersly.
I wonder if this is a three team trade involving JBJ and one of our catchers now that we signed Lucroy. I just don’t think the Lucroy signing makes much sense… Maybe it was because something else is coming down.
I wouldn’t read too much into the Lucroy signing. Many teams sign spare non-roster catchers to catch all those extra arms in camp.
Roenicke tie and his availability for almost no money are what landed Lucroy in camp.
Just do JBJ for Myers, Quantrill, Olivares and half of Myers’ salary and call it a day.
That’s way too much for JBJ. Three team trade.
Not even close lol. If the Padres were getting nothing back, Boston is still getting screwed! Myers would be lucky to get a major league contract. No way any team is taking Myers and half that contract without something major coming back.
Myers is probably getting Pence or Pillar money on the open market, 4 or 5 million.
Nick Senzel and his 89 OPS+. What a get!
Yeah, just like the Reds should have never kept Barry Larkin after his 76 OPS+ in his first full year. Gosh.
That Trout guy also had an OPS+ of 89 his rookie year. Better get rid of him before that sophomore slump.
Whether you like Preller or not, the guy worked hard this off-season. Clearly he feels the pressure to field a good and competitive team and he’s doing all he can. If he can get a win in this trade, I’d be happy.
Can AJ Preller just be fired already? This guy has been in every rumor for every player for the last 6 years and all he has ever done is overpay for Myers, Hosmer & Machado. In 6 seasons he has never won more games than the GM before him. Oh and he got suspended by MLB. LOL
rockstar GM targeting Benintendi in Boston deal + Lindor from Cleveland… in a seperate discussion Bryant from Cubs ,JBJ fromnSox and Senzel from Reds…a ton of moving parts.. Boston/SD deal not necessarily relying onnother teams .. so we shall see.. but AJP has had multiple pans on that stove all winter .. on a seperate note.mTatis Jr been shagging Fly balls in CF last 3 days..hmmmm
Preller explicitly came out and said “We would need to acquire a Hall of Famer type shortstop to even have the conversation about moving Tatis off the position.”
Thus Lindor
Lindor is staying in Cleveland (atleast until the trade deadline). The decision for CLE was either trade Kluber and try to win with offense and three very good starters or trade Lindor and win with 4 potential aces. They chose the trade Kluber route.
Plus, Dodgers can give the most for Lindor.
Tatis Jr. & Patino would certainly get Cleveland’s interest. They might need to add one more prospect but it would be tough for Cleveland to hang up on Preller if he offered that to them.
Henry, you are quite the dreamer aren’t you. Your Rockstar GM is the one that got you Myers and Hosmer on these wonderful contracts. Cleveland plans to contend in 2020 and the Padres do not have the pieces that gets Lindor and still allows the Indians to contend in 2020 so a trade now is very unlikely.
How does this make sense for the Red Sox unless they are also sending back a bad contract? They finally were just able to get below the salary tax and now are looking to acquire a bad contract to get back prospects? I actually don’t really dislike the deal – I think Myers has potential to be decent, and I realize that the AAV of his contract is much lower than the $20-something M he’s owed for the next 3 years. But the Red Sox also can’t just blow up their whole plan of getting under the luxury tax line by acquiring him — so one would have to assume either Jackie Bradley Jr. or some other costly asset would have to be going back to SD in any trade. If the Sox really can get a solid prospect (or two) in return for JBJ + half of Myers contract I actually think that could be a solid deal for them. As they do really need to boost their farm system. But I just didn’t expect this after the Betts for Myers swap didn’t pan out I assumed the Sox and Padres wouldn’t revisit deals including Myers to the Sox. We shall see… But if the Sox can make it work and stay under the salary tax – it could definitely be a creative way to improve their farm system and get a player who I feel still has the potential to be a decent power ML bat if he can make some adjustments
Exactly.. It’d be a swap for Myers and JBJ, who the Padres could then cut for 30-days pay if it’s done within the beginning of spring camp. SD sweetens the deal for taking on two years of a bad Myers deal beyond what JBJ was. Boston gets to save face on not being the team that cut JBJ. They can say “we traded him to SD, they cut him.”
If Yates is added, it frees up 18M for SD in 2020, pretty much exactly what Kris Bryant is being paid.
Why would the Red Sox want Yates? To make sure the Blue Jays don’t catch them for 3rd in the division?
You need to stop. This is embarrassing. If we got back Yates, which SD would never do, we could trade him to any team in BB for a top-50 prospect, like tomorrow morning.
Ok then why not just take back a top 50 prospect in the Myers trade? Why trade for a declining asset in Yates as an intermediate step?
Eovaldi/ Vazquez for Hedges/ Myers/
Be great but not gonna happen
So the RS would take a loss at catcher, and offset that by taking a loss on Myers?
Leaving Boston with 3 starting pitchers this season…I don’t see that happening.
Considering the Sox might lose draft picks for their sign stealing punishment like the Astros I can see them trying to rebuild their farm system in this way.
JBJ involved in the return?
Why not trade JD you will get back alot more and he don’t have to be there rebuilding JD would be happy
JD needs to be in the AL. While he can be passable in the OF, he has a back issue that gets aggravated by playing in the field too much so I don’t see SD taking him on with his defensive issues.
None of this is going to matter if the Red Sox get nailed for sign stealing. Myers has never lived up to potential. Bradley is a great defender but awful batter. This is more about shifting money around and not actual talent.
That is not going to happen or we would have heard something by now..
None of this is going to matter if the Red Sox get nailed for sign stealing. Myers has never lived up to potential. Bradley is a great defender but awful batter. This is more about shifting money around and not actual talent.
The Sox want prospects period! They like the catcher Campusano and something else. The pads need to trade Myers or the GM gets fired! I will take the prospects and go for a quick reset! Quantrill might be a good number 5! The Sox can and will compete this year and Bloom has done a good job!
Yes sir Mr. Fowler! If those are your orders it will be done.
If this is JBJ for Myers+, this is a great deal, depending on the 2nd SD piece.
If SD chips in half of Myers Salary, his cap cost to the RS is ~ $3-4M. With the $11M saved by moving JBJ, we’d be about $7M ahead, for cap purposes.
For SD, they get a legit CF, at basically a cost of -0-, since the RS are picking up half of Myers $22M+. If SD includes some like Quantrill, they are adding a guy that might not be in their rotation after Gore & Patino are promoted.
The RS get weaker in the OF, but pick up a #4+ SP. I would do that deal right now, without a second thought. The only way it goes south is if both Myers & Quantrill are awful.
Well we know Myers is awful so…
Not at all. Here are his OPS+ numbers:
2015 112
2016 115
2017 109
2018 110
2019 95
So he was a below-average hitter for one season in the past 5. In the past 5 years, he has averaged a 1.7 WAR, and a 2.3 WAR/650. These are actually better than Moreland has had with the RS.