Okay, I’m sure some will take umbrage with the title here. But I chose my words pretty carefully. Liam Hendriks probably wasn’t baseball’s most effective reliever in 2019. He almost assuredly isn’t its best from a true-talent perspective. And the Aussie certainly isn’t its most valuable when it comes to control rights and contracts. (He’ll be a free agent at the end of the 2020 season.)
But … Hendriks did lead Major League Baseball’s bullpen denizens with a whopping 3.8 fWAR last year … the loftiest single-season tally since Eric Gagne’s magical 2003 effort. (It’s 3.9 if you include his two “opener” outings.) Hendriks was also worth 3.5 rWAR, so it wasn’t just a quirk of the FIP-based Fangraphs tabulations. Prefer RA9 WAR? He was even more dominant.
But, you may protest, wins above replacement isn’t the best measure of a reliever. That’s no doubt true. The precise tabulations don’t really matter for our purposes here. Hendriks was in part able to out-WAR his fellow relievers because he threw so many innings — 85 in 75 appearances, one of the heaviest workloads in the game — but that just makes things more impressive. He ranked among the leaders in most major measures of effectiveness as well … including fielding-independent pitching measures FIP (2nd), xFIP (18th), and SIERA (5th).
This showing was exceedingly impressive, no matter the details. It was also … decidedly not consistent with Hendriks’s prior efforts on an MLB mound. Entering the 2019 season, his big league stat sheet reflected 406 innings of 4.72 ERA pitching.
How on earth did we get here?
We can mostly ignore the earliest stage of his career, when Hendriks — once a prospect of some note with the Twins — failed to make it as a starter. The Minnesota organization cut bait after 156 innings of 6.06 ERA pitching. Hendriks ultimately landed with the Blue Jays after a round of offseason waiver-wire musical chairs in the 2013-14 offseason. He first went from the Twins to the Cubs after the Minnesota org signed Phil Hughes. The Orioles prevented the Cubs from slipping Hendriks through waivers but cut him loose when they inked Ubaldo Jimenez.
The Toronto organization only gave Hendriks a few outings during the ensuing 2014 season before sending him to the Royals in a deal for Danny Valencia. Hendriks did have good Triple-A numbers that year. When the Royals needed 40-man space in the ensuing offseason, the Jays stepped back in and grabbed Hendriks back in a DFA limbo swap.
Finally, the stage was set for success. Hendriks moved into the bullpen in Toronto … and immediately exhibited a huge uptick in velocity. He was sitting over 95 mph in a relief capacity and having much more success at generating swings and misses. In 2015, Hendriks turned in 64 2/3 innings of 2.92 ERA ball with 9.9 K/9 against 1.5 BB/9. He didn’t allow many home runs (0.4 per nine) and even generated a strong 46.3% groundball rate (the only time he has ticked up in that department).
The Blue Jays decided to cash in at this point, shipping Hendriks to Oakland in exchange for steady veteran swingman Jesse Chavez. He continued the strong work for the most part. While his ERA trickled north, Hendriks still carried good peripherals and gave the A’s a lot of useful innings in his first two campaigns. Taking his 2015-17 efforts as a whole, Hendriks was a notable contributor: he threw between 64 and 64 2/3 frames in each season while compiling a 3.63 cumulative ERA and a total of 3.9 fWAR (precisely the tally he managed in the 2019 season alone).
Before Hendriks could break out, he had to go through the roughest patch since his time as a starter. He struggled with a groin injury and threw eleven terrible innings before being dumped to make way for Edwin Jackson. Hendriks sailed through waivers and could’ve elected free agency, but decided to stay with the A’s since doing otherwise would’ve meant giving up the remainder of his $1.9MM arbitration salary.
Expectations were low when the A’s unceremoniously brought Hendriks back onto the MLB roster for the stretch run with the September active roster expansion. But he had transformed himself while away and the results were immediately apparent — at both Triple-A (43:4 K/BB in 25 1/3 innings) and the big leagues (two earned runs, 10:3 K/BB in 13 innings). What changed? As Rian Watt of Fangraphs wrote recently, A’s pitching coach Scott Emerson credits Hendriks for having “transformed his body” and with it his “mindset” and “approach” during his demotion. Oh, and Hendriks added velocity — it was apparent late in 2018 and continued in 2019 — and figured out a better means of locating his curve to complement the heat.
That good old-fashioned hard work has served Hendriks well in the past; he credited strength training and clean living for his original, pre-2015 breakout. But this time he moved into much more exclusive territory, delivering a 96.8 mph average fastball and generating a big 17.0% swinging-strike. Hendriks ended up fifth among all relievers with 32.0% K%-BB%.
Remarkably, even as the A’s watched Blake Treinen fall from his perch (a 3.6 fWAR 2018 season), they were able to turn over the ninth inning to a similarly dominant hurler. Hendriks ended up locking up 25 saves for Oakland last year. He’s earning a reasonable $5.3MM in his final season of arbitration eligibility — which will actually be his tenth consecutive season of MLB action, owing to all the ups and downs over the years.
As for the future, we’ll have to see whether Hendriks can keep this going. But he only turned 31 in February, so he could have many good seasons ahead.
A’s should trade him.
Treinen also had a dominant season before things fell apart.
He’s in his final year and they have a healthy-ish staff meaning some guys could find up in the pen.
Pitching is volatile..
No ones gonna take him unless the price is basically zero or if they (somehow) find a way to play most of a season. A’s seem out of luck with Hendriks, Semien, Petit, and Fiers.
No pending free agent has value right now with no season talk. The dodgers are regretting their trade right now. This will not be the off season to be a free agent prices will be way down.
hindsight is 20-20. No one can hold the Betts/Ozuna, etc transactions over the respective GMs.
Of course hind sight but they would never done those trades just like your comment nobody taking hendricks right now because of how the season is on hold. So we actually said the same thing.
No, a World Series-contender should not trade their elite closer.
Will the A’s go for it or do enough to just be in the post season? At some point they need to do something with their core to push themselves to World Series contention. Overpaying Soria won’t cut it and neither will wild card losses.
One year wonder. Don’t expect the same again.
WAR should never be used for pitchers, RPs in specific
It’s definitely not the most effective way to judge a reliever.
However if you list the top relievers by war over the last few years… you’d see a pretty dominant group of guys. Not the best way to evaluate them… but it’s not horribly off base either.
For the purpose of this article it’s perfectly fine.
I understand the umbrage, but WAR rarely gets good relievers wrong. Like, you aren’t going to see a RP with a 2.5 WAR and go “But wait, that guy stunk that season though”
Was never hendriks fan but he was great last year. I know relievers are volatile. But i think you could sign him to serviceable multi year deal considering his breakout at age past 30. A’s had a patchwork bullpen if wasnt for hendriks and then luzardo, puk etc towards end of season. Trivino has had terrible results going back to August 2018 but great stuff
The Twins do a good job of developing Aussies for other teams bullpens. Grant Balfour, Hendriks. Really hope Thorpe isn’t next, want to see him succeed with the Twins.
Peter Moylan too
Heres a question for all the commenters: Who will be the most productive reliever in 2020? (assuming there’s a season) My guys would be: N.L Yates, and A.L Nick Anderson, and my underrated ones are: N.L Richard Rodriguez (Pitt), and A.L James Karinchak (Indians). I would like to be a homer and put a few Rangers on the underrated ones, but didn’t, they would’ve been Rafael Montero and Demarcus Evans.
I think for underrated Melancon has a nice abounds back year. He no longer has the pressure of that huge contract and a home fan base that wants to burn him in effigy every night, I think he puts together a nice season in Atlanta assuming a season occurs
Anderson is good but perception of him is really inflated. ill need another year before i put him in potential ralks for
*potential talks for the Mo Award
I enjoyed watching him in the AL Wild Card elimination game 2019 vs A’s. That was an intense game.
An impossible task is predicting an extremely volatile thing.
Exactly, that’s the point.
25 saves… 7 blown saves
78% save rate
80% is good
90% is great
78% is marginal
The role of closer is to seal the win. Shane Greene has a lifetime 80% save rate and he was terrible for years.
Chapman lifetime 90%
Kimbrel lifetime 90%
Maybe Hendriks has some great walk in music and flashes a shinny fastball… the real measure of a closer is how well he closes out the win. 78% isn’t very productive.
I don’t there is a more accurate statement than this. The only reason to have closers is to secure a win.
Even as a A’s fan I would not call Hendricks a elite closer. He was great against RHB but was just good against LHB. Not many closers are great for more than 3 years. They come and go so much. That is why if a Closer has a great year you enjoy it because next year they could be back to normal.
If you are using saves and blown saves to evaluate if he is a good relief pitcher, then I don’t know what to tell you other than you’re looking at a very inaccurate stat. Hendrks had an opponent .694 OPS in high leverage situations, and oppnent .564 OPS in games that were late and close. This video here (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yVPURehF_6c&t=502s) really explains why it’s saves/blown saves are inaccurate (it’s around the 9:55 mark).
When a closer enters a game, he usually has a lead and only has to get one inning. Sure he relies on his defense, but good closers get the job done 80+% of the time. Those other stats dont mean anything over the course of a career. I dont care if hes Nolan Ryan or Randy Johnson… they can have 1.something era’s, 20 k/9, 100 plus heaters… if they can only get saves 78% of the time, give me Joakim Soria.
I just want to say that Chapman won the Reliever of the year in 2019, and I couldn’t agree less. Hendriks won it fair and square, but you may say that Chapman had more saves, or a better save percentage, but despite Hendriks’s lower-than-average save percentage… He pitched 85 innings to Chapman’s 57! Hendriks only had 32 save opportunities, so for the most part when he pitched, it wasn’t in save opportunities. Chapman pitched 57 innings, got 35 saves, and had 42 save opportunities. So Chapman (percentage wise) had more opportunities to get saves than Hendriks did! You may also say that Hendriks was weak against lefties, but stellar against righties, but a 2.50 era against left, and a whip of 1.24 are still way above average stats for a reliever! He was robbed of reliever of the year title.
Like Dark Side said, he wasn’t the team’s primary closer until July, and in a couple of his blown saves, he wasn’t even the pitcher that started the 9th inning. In terms if save opportunities in the 9th inning, he had a save % over 80%. Plus in one of his blown saves, he let in two runs because he was thrown into a fire that Brett Anderson started in the 7th. The A’s still won that game 6-2 though but Hendriks was given a blown save for two un earned runs on his end.
@Melchez – can absolutely see Soria a being the A’s closer if the season starts and Hendriks is hittable for longer than 3-5 games in a row.
Todd Jones had a career save percentage of over 80% and he was bad… Very stressful every inning. Walks… hard hit balls… runners on base… but he still got over 300 saves and 81% save rate. Low k rate with an era of almost 4.00
I would still rather have a guy that gets the outs when it’s needed. Much better than a guy that looks pretty out there.
In 10 years, let me know who has more career saves… Todd Jones or Hendriks
he wasn’t a closer the whole time though, right? you can still blow a save in the 6th, 7th, 8th innings. his rate js probably higher when simply working in the 9th.
3 blown saves in September too. I agree Hendriks was elite but also, I’d rather have a guy with a 5.0 K/9 rate who has a 90% save rate. Pitching is an art form, not a weightlifting contest (altho Aroidis wins that too), strike outs are nice but the out is the most important thing for a closer.
Really wish the Orioles would sign Bartolo and make him close. Nothing but pounding the zone, painting the corners with 89 mph. Would love to see what would happen.
He credited his velocity uptick to constantly doing long toss. He would wear his teammates out & he would work with bullpen catchers as well.
Koji Uehara in 2013. None better. Some guys just have that year where they are locked in.
Fernando rodney 2012. 48 saves… 2 blown saves
.60 era
Koji got a championship ring and did have a better WHIP. While Rodney was phenomenal but for a third place team. You are right though, based on the surrounding seasons for each, Rodney’s year was much more of an outlier.
Rodney is interesting, because he has had some very odd years.
2009 37 saves and only 1 blown save. ERA of 4.40 and a WHiP of 1.467
2 years as an Angel… 17 saves and 14 blown saves.
His amazing year in 2012
2014 48 saves 3 blown 2.85 era 10 k/9
2016 Padres 17 saves 0 blown. era of .31 10 k/9
He ends up with over 300 saves and at 80% save rate… some great year and some terrible years. His first 5 years he had 20 saves… and 19 blown saves.
I am quite sure nobody remembers his best game ever.
Liam went blow for blow with King Felix back in 2012.
Best game i have ever been too.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/MIN/MIN201208270.shtml
Never liked that Chavez trade… I saw Hendriks’s stats before the trade and they were great. So I was quite confused when they dumped him for a veteran reliever who didn’t even perform very well in Toronto. “Cashing in” is quite generous.
The Jays definitely got fleeced on that deal.
Yeah, they certainly did not make out well.
The Chavez trade wasnt great at the time but it was a pretty small deal. For example as the post says, the A’s outrighted Hendricks in 2018 and anyone including the Jays could have claimed but didnt. Its just one of those magical lucky moves that no one including the signing GM expects, like Gio Urshela 2019.
Kirby Yates better.
Question: How did the A’s end up with quality player like Hendricks?
Answer: they traded with Mark Shapiro who likes to give away assets for little or nothing in return.
Chavez was older, more expensive with less team control than Hendriks. He was then made a reliever instead of the #5 starter.
The trade was completed by Anthopoulos’s Assistant GM and company as Atkins wasn’t hired at that point. After a very good 2015 they still did not care for Hendriks. Unfortunate considering how inexpensive he was despite being very effective out of the bullpen.
No one remeber this guy was DFA in mid 2018. Relievers are a roller coaster and anyone who thinks Hendricks is actually this good is in for a shock.
I remember being disappointed in the Jays trading him for Chavez. Partly because I didn’t see the need for Chavez and because I thought Hendriks had the ability to be a solid BP arm.
So stoked for his success, most successful Aussie in the big leagues sing Grant Balfour, more talent coming from down under too, loving it