There might not be two finer right-handed pitching prospects in baseball than the Blue Jays’ Nate Pearson and the Tigers’ Casey Mize. At least a few notable prospect outlets essentially have the pair neck and neck. Baseball America ranks Pearson as the game’s seventh-best farmhand and has Mize at No. 13. FanGraphs puts Pearson at No. 8, Mize 16th. And MLB.com slightly favors Mize, rating him seventh and Pearson eighth.
Between the two, Pearson seems to be closer to making his major league debut. The 23-year-old, whom the Blue Jays chose 28th in the 2017 draft, dazzled in spring training before the game shut down as a result of the coronavirus pandemic. Pearson fired seven innings of one-run, two-hit ball with 11 strikeouts and three walks, flashing triple-digit heat along the way. Carving up the competition isn’t anything new for the 6-foot-6, 245-pound Pearson, who just last season combined for a 2.30 ERA with 10.5 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 and averaged 97 mph on his fastball in 101 2/3 innings divided among the High-A, Double-A and Triple-A levels. It was the first extensive pro year for Pearson, who tossed a meager 1 2/3 frames in 2018 as he dealt with a back injury and a fractured ulna.
Whether Pearson will be handle a starter’s workload over the long haul is one of the few questions surrounding him. He only averaged a little over four innings per appearance in 2019, and Baseball America writes, “The fact that Pearson throws with so much velocity on every fastball also gives some scouts concerns about whether that’s a durability risk.” If Pearson can hold up, though, he clearly has the potential to evolve into a front-line starter at the MLB level.
Mize, 22, has ace upside in his own right. He was the No. 1 pick in the 2018 draft and has lived up to the billing in the minors thus far. Mize doesn’t throw as hard as Pearson (his typical fastball clocked in at 93 mph in ’19), but he was just about untouchable last year in High-A (0.88 ERA over 30 2/3 innings) before earning a promotion to Double-A. Mize continued to wow at the second-highest level of the minors, where he recorded a 3.20 ERA and 8.69 K/9 against 2.06 BB/9 in 15 starts and 78 2/3 frames; however, Mize did miss a few weeks with shoulder inflammation, and the Tigers put an early end to his season to preserve him for future years. He returned during the spring with four innings of three-hit, two-run pitching, notching six strikeouts and a pair of walks.
If health doesn’t fail either of these hurlers in the coming seasons, baseball fans could be treated to another couple of electrifying arms. Which of the two would you take as a building block? (Poll link for app users)
Didn’t Mize toss a no-hitter in his first AA start, or something like that?
Yes he did
I suppose they’re both fine pitchers
Mize healthy is an ace in waiting. Best pitching prospect in the game healthy.
Mize is a victim of prospect fatigue perhaps. that guy will be a stud if healthy. same goes for Pearson, but i worry much more about his arm.
If both are healthy I’d say Pearson is better, but I think Mize is the safer bet.
Mize is going to last longer in the league and be consistently good like Kyle Hendricks. I see Pearson having a terrific 3-4 year stretch like Tim Lincecum and the kind of falling off. All in all Pearson may have the better peak, but Mize will have the better career. I like Mize a lot though.
You are basing this on what?
He “sees it”
Pearson has the physical build to hold up. He is 6’6″ 250. He is more similar to someone like Syndergaard.
Mize’s stuff is eerily similar to Rodger Clemens. Power slide/spitter combo and a mid 90’s fastball. As well as his physical build. I hate comping a guy to a (should be) HOFer, but if Mize stays healthy, he could be really good.
Well, I would not say that Sydergard is someone who has held up well health wise.
I think that they’ll both have nice careers, but I think that Mize’s will be better and that he’ll spend it as an upper end rotation piece; Pearson will end up being a closer or high end set up man.
Mize and Faedo are going to anchor the Tigers for a long time. By the time they’ll be called up, the Tigers will actually be good again. Gardenhire will keep them “afloat” culture-wise until about 2022. Avila just needs to nail the next two drafts and get one international superstar signing. Good ahead for the Tigers, soon.
How you gunna ignore Manning like that? Faedo? Manning has the way higher ceiling. All three are going to be studs but I have it Mize – Manning – Faedo in terms of better career. Ignoring Manning altogether is really odd.
Faedo might be a 5 or bullpen piece. Mize, Manning, and Skubal. Skubal could end up being the best.
Faedo might be a 5 or bullpen piece. Mize, Manning, and Skubal. Skubal could end up being the best.
Manning might have the best stuff of the three and his control will be serviceable enough to keep his walk rate in check, but that command within the zone needs some serious refinement if he’s going to even get close to his ceiling. I would content he’s the riskiest of the bunch just cause the other two have higher present pitchability.
Also let’s not sleep on Tarik Skubal. Some executives might prefer him to the others. 95-98 this spring w deception, high spin FB, plus command, and a legitimate secondary out-pitch.
With Skubal there are a couple question marks though. A two pitch pitcher with shaky mechanics and a n injury history may project better as a reliever. not saying he will be a reliever or that he should be a reliever. Just want to bring some nuance to the equation. Also his 98 is a rarity, mostly pitches in the 92-95 range.
More like Mize – Manning – Skubal will anchor the Tigers for a long time.
I think Manning will be better than Mize actually
Manning is my favorite pitching prospect in baseball right now. Reminds me so much of Verlander.
Faedo isn’t all that different than say KBO veteran Henry Sosa as they’re good at getting strikeouts while limiting walks. What their problems are is that they give up flyballs frequently and don’t get many groundballs.
thank you for mentioning Faedo. i think he’s the forgotten man in all this. he certainly has the potential to be a top arm in a rotation and has a high floor too.
Mize all day. Pearson is a TJ waiting to happen.
Don’t disagree, but splitters aren’t always arm friendly either.
Splitter are thrown like fastball, just a different grip
The separation of the fingers on the splitter put extra stress on the elbow. Hold your elbow and the spread your fingers apart, you will feel a bit of a pull.
And Strike Four, all pitchers are a TJ waiting to happen. It’s a game of Russian Roulette.
Pearson has a very loose and easy delivery. He does not look like a future TJ recipient.
Sliders are likely to cause a UCL tear. A splitter is not. A splitter is the easiest pitch on your arm outside of 2 and 4 seam fastballs.
Besides the knuckleball of course!;)
Quite true, as proven by R.A. Dickey who had no UCL.
I was wondering when you were going to do this face off. I give the edge to my boy Nate with that heater, I think it’s the only 80 grade pitch in the ENTIRE minor leagues. Mize has one nasty splitter though from what I’ve seen. Go Jays.
Do Bobby Witt Jr. vs Royce Lewis next
Nate is projected to be the next Verlander and that’s good enough for me right there, that other guy is just the other guy.
Mize has essentially the same stuff as Kirby Yates, except he also has a plus slider and can maintain the same fastball velocity as Yates over 7-8 innings. That splitter will be one of the best pitches in baseball.
Mize will be a 2/3 MLB starter while Pearson will be a 1/2.
They’ll both be a 1/2
3 ideas: Drew Waters v Dylan Carlson…. Oneil Cruz v Vidal Brujan…. Josiah Gray v Kyle Wright.
Dylan Carlson v Alex Kirillof would be a better comparison.
Also Vidal Brujan and Oneil Cruz are literally nothing alike so comparing them would be a pointless article. A contact/speed prospect who will stick in the infield and a 6’7″ power first shortstop most likely to wind up in a corner outfield spot.
Give me Julio Rodriguez v Jarred Kelenic
Sixto Sanchez vs. Dustin May
Matt Manning vs. Luis Patino
Royce Lewis vs. Bobby Witt jr.
Aj Puk vs Nick Lodolo
Dylan Carlson vs. Drew Waters
Alec Bohm Vs Ke’Bryan Hayes
Brendan Rodgers vs. Nick Madrigal
Andrew Vaughn vs Evan White
Michael Kopech Vs. Forrest Whitley (LOL)
Rodgers and Madrigal are practically polar opposites.
Yes, because Rodgers is a power threat while Madrigal is a speedy, high contact and on base guy.
WDE!
Mize has superior command and a better idea of how to pitch. Pearson still needs to prove he can consistently command his secondary offerings. If he can eventually develop plus command he has a much higher ceiling.
I’m always a big fan of losing a bit of velocity in return for better command and more movement.
Cole and DeGrom are two examples albeit very good pitchers compared to a prospect that can throw for high velocity and still have superior command
Hoping to see a Kirilloff v Carlson or a double comp of Bohm v Gorman or Hayes v Jones at 3B. Could even do a Pache v Waters as an all Braves comp. Do a Brujan v Madrigal for a undersized 2nd baseman comp. Lots of options with this series.
Pearson gets stronger as the game goes on, so he could end up as a Verlander type that saves triple digits until the 7th inning.. He’s a big strong horse that has the durability to do that.
I can also see him as a Roy Halladay type, who could throw 99, but gave up velocity in favor of pinpoint accuracy and more movement.
Well Halladay only gave up velo because he hurt hi shoulder and had to change his mechanics to pitch. Also I don’t think Pearson’s stuff works if his fastball is at 90. He would still be a major league pitcher, but not a top of the rotation guy.
Halladay threw 99 a total of never. He could reach 95-96 in his younger days. Had a couple arm injuries and could still get guys on a moving fastball, good breaker and change up. He never threw 99.
I;ll take either one. As a jay fan I default to Nate, the quicker he learns to be more of a pitcher ( I already know he can throw) the longer this career.
As a Toronto fan, the future around the core of Nate the Great, Bo, Vlad, LG, Biggie, Ryu is so promising that it makes this delayed start of the 2020 season even worse than previously imagined.
But there was no chance Nate was making the Jays out of Spring Training no matter how flawless he threw. And, maybe its splitting hairs here but saying he “dazzled” in 7 IP in ST is laughable. Come on, dont oversell the argument. The rest of the comparison was executed so well.
I think I get where you’re coming from regarding Pearson’s 7 Spring Training innings, but he really did look amazing in them. I know that one has to consider the circumstances and competition, but he was like a scalding hot knife cutting through butter (particularly in his outing against the Pirates).
You really can’t go wrong with either and it wasn’t an easy choice for me, but I chose Pearson.
Really enjoy these head-to-head comparisons of prospects.
Yes this is cool
Both are studs on the mound. The best will be the one who’s healthiest. Mize has a edge pitching in that park in that division with other decent pitchers parks. Pearson has tougher competition and hitters parks to deal with.
As a Jays fan I’d love to see the fences pushed back to the first level facade and move the bullpens to behind the alleys. It would bring back the triple, the most exciting play in baseball (in my opinion).
I’d take Mize, but it’s close. He has a little better control and seems more of a Maddux-type pitcher (though certainly not saying he’ll be that good). Pearson really lights up that radar gun, but if he becomes a reliever, that’s less valuable than a high-end starter.
That said, I liked this comparison less than the other two because the players aren’t as similar. Robert and Adell are very similar players, as are Lux and Franco. A better comp for Pearson would be Kopech, imo. Electric fastballs, solid sliders, pitches beyond those are still developing. Kopech, of course, has the TJS to be concerned about, but he looked great in his one ST start and his velocity seems to have returned.