If the Rockies are to come anywhere near meeting the expectations of ownership, they’re going to need a lot of things to break right in the near term. More than anything, the club requires a few high-quality supplemental players to emerge (or, in the case of some expensive veterans, re-emerge) to supplement an enviable set of stars.
We reflexively think about concerns with pitching when it comes to the Colorado organization, but the team’s bats have been an even greater problem in recent years. The recent Rox outfield has consisted of Charlie Blackmon and a revolving cast of mostly replacement-level bandmates.
As Blackmon ages gracefully — he’s a continuing threat at the plate but has faded badly in the field and on the bases — there’s a glaring need for new talent. Actually, hold that: there has been some talent. The club paid big for Ian Desmond. It gave more chances to Carlos Gonzalez and even got one final ride with Matt Holliday. Some well-regarded prospects such as Garrett Hampson and Raimel Tapia have filtered up. And of course we’ve seen what David Dahl can do … when healthy. What this team needs is honest-to-goodness, consistent, real-live production from someone other than Blackmon.
The Rockies have allocated all their available payroll. They let Mike Tauchman go to the Yankees (not that it wasn’t plenty understandable at the time). They’re badly in need of an emergence from within.
That’s just what the team got late in 2019 from unheralded newcomer Sam Hilliard. His emergence largely flew under the radar as the Rockies limped to the end of a brutally disappointing campaign. While it’s always worth caution when it comes to a 27-game sample, Hilliard was a legitimately exciting performer down the stretch. Could the Rockies have something here?
Hilliard was known as a two-way player for most of his amateur career. He emerged as an interesting position-player target in advance of the 2015 draft, but the Rockies were able to wait until the 15th round to nab him. Hilliard is big, strong, and swift.
The results have been mixed since Hilliard hit the pro ranks. He put up strong homer and steal tallies on his way up the farm system, but always did a fair bit of swinging and missing. Hilliard hit a bit of a wall in 2018 at Double-A. And though his Triple-A output in the ensuing season looked big on paper — 35 long balls, 22 steals, .262/.335/.558 slash — it translated to a fairly modest 107 wRC+ since it occurred in an exceedingly offensive-friendly environment.
When he took to the majors late in the year, there wasn’t much cause for over-excitement. But the 26-year-old delivered well beyond expectations, sending seven balls over the fence in 87 plate appearances while turning in a .273/.356/.649 output. That, too, took place in an explosive setting for bats, but it worked out to a healthy 138 wRC+ output at the dish.
Here’s the thing about Hilliard: prospect watchers still have tempered expectations, despite the big debut. But there are some reasons to believe he could keep producing at an above-average rate in the majors, all while providing value in the field and on the bases. It seems promising that Hilliard actually reduced his upper-minors strikeout rate upon reaching the majors (to a palatable 26.4%) while walking in over ten percent of his MLB plate appearances (above league average).
The most recent Fangraphs assessment of Hilliard’s outlook notes that “his ability to identify pitches he can drive is impressive in context, but well-executed pitches can get him out.” Indeed, he took Noah Syndergaard deep twice in one game … then launched against high-grade lefties Hyun-Jin Ryu and Josh Hader. Perhaps Hilliard’s demonstrated capacity can be expanded more consistently. Given his former focus on pitching, it’s said he’s still maturing as a hitter.
The Rockies sure could use a pleasant surprise from Hilliard. They could also stand to see Dahl on the field for the entire season. That might give the team an all-lefty group of regulars, along with Blackmon, with Hampson and Desmond supplementing from the right side. There’s at least one other near-term player with potential, too. Yonathan Daza is already on the 40-man and is seen as a prospect of some note. His 2019 debut went in the opposite direction of Hilliard’s, with Daza turning in a .206/.257/.237 slash over 105 plate appearances. But Daza had a big showing at Triple-A and has hit well this spring.
It probably wouldn’t be wise for the Rockies or their fans to expect too much from Hilliard and the rest of the outfield unit in 2020 and beyond. But it seems they can at least hope for something more.
i don’t really see the appeal
Is that what your date said?
Hilliard is really hard to predict for me. He had a fantastic debut, and his tools could make him a genuinely solid piece for the Rockies.
…but he also has a lot of swing-and-miss and kinda took a while to get to the MLB level.
Though I’m optimistic on him, I can ignore any K problems if he’ll walk to make up for it to go along with his solid all-around tools.
I think R-Truth (Ron Killings) could help them in the outfield.
They have 2 good outfielders, then Hilliard/Tapia, plus Desmond who despite not being very good anymore, is still not a free out.
That said, they should trade Dahl, Story, Arenado and most of their decent pitching and rebuild. They’re probably the org in the worst shape in the West right now (Giants are a worse team, but they have a ton of money to spend in the next few years, and quietly building a nice farm)
Tapia had a wRC+ of just 73, good for -0.9 fWAR and you call him good? Even against RHPs his wRC+ was just 75. Desmond hit LHPs decent, but Tapia’s the wrong guy to platoon him with.
Brixton- your trade talk is the most ludicrously bad idea I have seen in a long time.
After giving that huge contract to Arenado, I’d keep him to build around like the Braves and Reds did with Freeman and Votto respectively. Moving Blackmon’s big contract for fair value may also prove difficult, and nobody’s going to want Desmond without eating most of his contract, Otherwise, I agree that they should just rebuild.
The article really wants to overlook Dahl. Dahl is an allstar level talent. Him and Blackmon are both top tier performers so the rest of the guys are competing for one OF spot, not exactly the depressing situation this article leads u to believe. And yes Dahl has injury concerns just like every other player out there
Not overlooking him at all. It’s just … we know the story on Dahl and Blackmon as well. This is about the wild card the team now has.
.733 career road OPS for Dahl. All-Star talent? Sure. All-Star level player? Nope. None of their OFs are. Blackmon’s contract is overlooked as one of the worst in baseball.
A healthy Dahl would help Blackman solidify the outfield. Some combination of Hilliard, Desmand, Tapia, etc will need to fill the void.
For the Rox to have any hope, Freeland needs to bounce back and Davis, Shaw and McGee need to earn their salaries.
Ownership has been loyal over the years but Briddich has to be at the end of his rope. Compared to the other GMs in the NL West, and what they are doing, he is outclassed. And he is about to piss away their best player…
I don’t know if it’s time for a rebuild but if it is, Briddich is not the man for the job.
Cool article. I really enjoy the articles talking about guys most fans have no idea about. I.e. Tom Murphy. The article titles are a bit deceiving, with Tom Murphy as a core peace for the M’s as a 29 year old. But overall, interesting articles. You can easily do 2-3 players from each team. As a Angels/Marlins fan, the Hansel Robles article was nice, I think Brian Goodwin could be an excellent article because he’s definitely being overshadowed by Trout, and also Adell who will be taking his spot. As for the Marlins, Jon Berti could be a cool guy for these types of articles.
I think Hilliard will be a very good player.
Most ground to cover of any outfield, meanwhile Rockies have zilch for range in the OF. The pitchers need all the defensive help they can get at Coors, Rox give them negative defensive outfielders. smh
Hilliard has the tools to make a big impact, and at 26 he is entering his prime years. An outfield of Hilliard, Tapia and Dahl would provide youth, speed and some pop. Blackmon and Desmond are beginning to fade and don’t cover the outfield ground as well now. Don’t get me wrong-both veterans are good players and clutch performers. The Rox big problem is still pitching. I would like to know more about the Rockies pitching prospects.
Hilliard and Daza might make a nice combo to complement Dahl and Blackmon. That could be their answer to the outfield.
But they would probably be wise to try to rebuild and try to find some pitching to move forward with.
What an awkward sentence this is, which could be easily fixed if commas weren’t being abused: “That, too, took place in an explosive setting for bats, but it worked out to a healthy 138 wRC+ output at the dish.”
We really need Baseball back. Some of the titles of articles on this site remind me of the episode of “Married…with Children” during the 1994 strike when Al and his friends form their own league and after a road trip comes home and is interviewed by Joe Morgan and walks by Peg to hug Dave Winfield and says “I missed you”
Living in ABQ and seeing Hilliard he is a strong athlete and can hit. Most minor league power guys have swing and miss because they know HRs get them promoted. Give the kid a chance. If he fails after 250 ABs send him down and see if he responds.