2020 salary terms are set to be hammered out in the coming days. But what about what’s owed to players beyond that point? The near-term economic picture remains questionable at best. That’ll make teams all the more cautious with guaranteed future salaries.
Every organization has some amount of future cash committed to players, all of it done before the coronavirus pandemic swept the globe. There are several different ways to look at salaries; for instance, for purposes of calculating the luxury tax, the average annual value is the touchstone, with up-front bonuses spread over the life of the deal. For this exercise, we’ll focus on actual cash outlays that still have yet to be paid.
We’ll run through every team, with a big assist from the Cot’s Baseball Contracts database. Next up is the White Sox:
(click to expand/view detail list)
White Sox Total Future Cash Obligation: $317.75MM
*includes buyout of club options
*2023 option over Dallas Keuchel vests with clean physical, IP thresholds
And they’re not even close to being done yet. Well, I suppose they are for the time being with the season still in limbo (though I do feel somehow they’ll make it work and play the season). They still potentially have Giolito, Madrigal, Vaughn, Kopech, Cease, and possibly even Lopez to extend.
It would take a lot of convincing for Jerry Reinsdorf to extend a pitcher. I don’t see that happening.
GM Rick Hahn convinced owner Jerry Reinsdorf to extend RP Aaron Bummer this past offseason. They also extended RP Nate Jones with less success prior to that. In the past, SP’s Mark Buehrle and John Danks received contract extensions with the White Sox deciding to keep the latter when the former was up for another extension before hitting free agency following the 2011 season.
Additionally, the White Sox just shelled out big bucks for FA starter Dallas Keuchel after falling short with the highest bid in the Zack Wheeler derby. The times they are a changin’ on the southside of Chicago, just in time before 84-year old JR sells the team and rides off into the sunset
@southsidejoe
One of the main reasons this rebuild could potentially be a success is due to 2 pitchers getting extended a few years back: Sale and Q. The success from those 2 extensions, even before they got traded (let alone the returns the Sox got for those 2), would lead to Jerry being on board as long as the extensions made sense to him.
extending Kopech now would be really risky unless its for a fairly low rate
I don’t know. He is probably still better than Carson Fulmer has been.
@DarkSide830
I was thinking more within the next 12 to 18 months. Some of these guys won’t get extended (if they do at all) until the off-season at the earliest, Kopech being one of them. Vaughn obviously won’t get extended until ’21 or ’22. Cease and Lopez (if Lopez actually gets extended), the off-season at the earliest.
Really the only 2 I can see get extended before the start of the season (assuming there’s a season in ’20) are Giolito and possibly Madrigal.
Madrigal’s slap hitting profile shouldn’t break the bank in arbitration. It might be the best to let him have his 6 or 7 years and play the arb game with him.
He’s one of those guys who you could get a larger discount on in arbitration relative to the production he provides. Whereas a slugger like Vaughn, for example, could get really pricey in arb.
Nick Madrigal reminds me of Whit Merrifield so much. I was looking at the numbers and they are very similar. Could become an very important piece.
I’m hoping they get this season in. And I really don’t care what their record ends up (though .500 or better would be nice). I just want to see guys like Robert, Eloy, Madrigal, Kopech, Cease, etc. get more experience under their belt this year, so next year and beyond they can be more ready to contend.
Even before the COVID-19 became anything, this was a transition year for the Sox, so sure, the potential was there to win 90+ if everything fell right, but anywhere between 80-85 wins were more likely.
They can still make the playoffs this year, especially since 7 teams get in each league. The O’s, M’s, Tigers, and KC are all in deep rebuilds, so that leaves 11 teams for 7 spots. Boston looks to have punted this season. The Jays, Angels, and Texas are in the Sox tier of teams right now, and the Sox play in a far weaker division.
Am I saying the Sox will be one of the 7 A.L. playoff teams? No, but the chance is now real they could snag the 7th spot. And again, I’m far more concerned with the youngsters getting more MLB experience this year than squeaking into the playoffs, but I definitely won’t complain if they are able to squeak in.
2nd that.
A lot of players have large back end money. In 4 years this is going to be a problem. I wish they had front loaded a few players to balance this out.
2nd that too.
That’s sort of true, but it’s mostly that they’re getting a _massive_ discount on them due to MLB’s salary rules. Moncada might realistically be worth $20MM a year on the free agent market, but he’s only getting paid that one year on his contract. Robert is getting less _every_ year.
Yes, it’s going to mean a much higher team payroll in 2023/2024, but it’s still not all that high really – they could easily add to that. By 2023 if they’re winning, I think $150MM is the _least_ you would expect their team payroll to be, and $200MM is possible between salary inflation and Reinsdorf’s interest in keeping up a winner this time (as opposed to in 2005 where after 2006 it went downhill quickly). $50-$60MM tied up in a few stars is not that much in that context.
Who are you talking about? The potentially “bad” deals (Abreu and Dallas) are done after 2022. Grandal is off the books the following year. The only real long term money they have on the books (in 4 years, as you said) belongs to Moncada, Eloy, and Robert – 3 players that *should* be their main offensive core. That’s a “problem” every team in baseball would love to have.
Baby got back
The back loaded contracts are offset by the 2, 3 and 4 year veterans deals they have. Won’t be an issue.
Yes, it will. When Keuchel’s deal is up, they’ll need someone to take over that role. They used to have a ton of in-house options, but Rodon will never be healthy for a full season, Lopez is talented but struggles mightily to be consistent, Cease needs to figure stuff out the first time through the lineup, and we don’t know if Dunning will fully recover from TJS. Kopech seems like the same guy and Giolito is great, but beyond that, they’ll almost certainly need to sign another veteran or two to round out the rotation. DH is less of a problem with Vaughn and Collins, but Collins may not stick at C, so now they need to sign one. The only real advantage on this is when Abreu retires (and probably becomes a coach), and that won’t be enough to offset the arb money or increasing salaries their studs will get. They’ll still be well under the cap, but they might be near the top of where Jerry’s willing to spend.
Dunning should be ready to compete for a job in 2021 at least even with the recovery from TJS. Another guy is Jonathan Stiever. The Sox 5th ranked prospect is projected a #3 or #4 starter and should be in the majors next year. Than you got Konner Pilkington who could be a fairly solid #5. I think our best pitching prospects are all bullpen guys honestly. Guys like Matt Foster and Tyler Johnson my personal favorite.
I am quite excited about Stiever, tbh. Thompson and Dahlquist will be that second wave of pitching prospects I am also excited about. They are a ways off, but have quite a bit of intrigue. I am also hoping a top arm goes to the Sox in the draft this year.
I’m thinking they will go best college arm but agree I would select a pitcher 1st round. You never know about the draft especially this year’s.
I’m hoping they go for a pitcher in the 1st round also. Obviously I want them to pick the best player available, but at #11 there probably won’t be a lot of separation between the top players at that point.
I’d like them to have some quality arms in the minors for the future, especially if they have problems extending Giolito, Kopech, and Cease (or if Kopech and/or Cease end up being a bust).
I looked a mock draft up and CBS Sports has ya taking catcher Patrick Bailey from NC State and his stats don’t look to bad. He only 29 homeruns and had 106 RBIs in 3 years but did have an .302 average in school. Last month it had us taking a righty from Minnesota. Max Meyer who seem like an interesting pick. In 3 years 10-7 record 46 games 15 starts 18 saves 148 innings 187 Ks 41 walks 98 hits.
Meyer would be interesting. Pass on Bailey for me though. I don’t see major upside. If they want to go C, I’d rather take a chance at getting Dingler from Ohio State a little under slot. He’s a legitimate athlete behind the plate and has significant upside on both sides of the ball. He was on the verge of breaking out this year before Covid shut everything down.
Also, I’d happily take a shot on the local kid, Ed Howard. Best SS in the draft.
Konner pilkington? Is that really a thing or you making stuff up
Yes he is. Although his numbers aren’t strikingly impressive, he’s always been younger (Sometimes significantly) than the average level he’s played at. He could be something. Time will tell
Well Bailey was more of defensive catcher. I wouldn’t mind a catcher if his framing and pitch calling is his best tools if he is hitting .300. As far as Konner Pilkington is concerned, yes he is real and he is actually a pretty solid guy. I live in Alabama and he is from Mississippi, went to Mississippi State and so I’m seen a lot of stuff on him. Like Deploy Eoy said nothing striking impressive but he could be a guy that eats innings kinda like Buehrle did. Could be a 200 a year guy.
I think you underestimate Jerry’s willingness to spend at this point. He isn’t the stingy owner of the 90s-2000s. They were seriously in on Machado, and seriously in on at least two SPs who would have gotten major contracts this year. Those would’ve been ludicrous in those earlier eras; the Jerry who never signed a pitcher to a contract over two years is gone.
He won’t be over the luxury tax, but he’ll be going up to it if it’s paying for a legit team. This is the guy who said all through the 90s that he didn’t care about the Bulls championships – that he’d trade all of them for a Sox championship. He got one, but he wants more.
As I said on the Indians’ version of this article, having a ton of money under the cap matters less if the team is unwilling or unable to spend enough to get close to the cap. The White Sox will spend more than the Indians, but I don’t think they even made an offer on Strasburg or Cole. I don’t see them making an offer to Mookie and, while I see them checking in on Springer, I doubt very much they get him. Some guys (Cease and Lopez) need to take massive steps forward this year or their rotation is going to be Giolito, Kopech, then a huge dropoff. That’s probably not good enough for them to be contenders, unless their offense starts to rival that of the Twins. I really like the Grandal signing and appreciate that they had the highest offer on Wheeler, but I doubt they ever land one of the three biggest FA’s in any given offseason.
While they didn’t show interest in cole or Strausburg, they were in on Machado. One might argue the seriousness when it came to the reported offer, but tbh they would be stupid to allow something like that to ever happen again.
these are not bad contracts………Sox did well.
Abreu is an overpay and I think Keuchel is as well, but not by much. The Grandal and Gio signings were good value. The extensions have been where the Sox have really shined.
The Abreu deal, while overpaying, I feel was important to get Robert and Moncada signed long term at the price reached. They are taking care and showing early commitment and faith in these guys. While it could possibly blow up in their face, this is their only path to obtain top level talent long term. They will likely always be priced out of the top FA even if it’s a need, but still have long term cornerstone pieces in this way.
Future free agency looks bleak …….Owners will have no money to spend with empty stadiums. / reduce seating.
One year isn’t going to bankrupt any of these teams. They may be a little shy with the money this coming offseason and I’d consequently expect a lot of players to take one-year deals, but if next year is full and fans are back, which I fully expect, then the money will be there. The looming CBA negotiation is a bigger issue, IMO.
Sox are in a good spot, I cannot laugh at them anymore.
Only time will tell on all these claims