Should the Yankees sign Aaron Judge to a long-term extension? Joel Sherman of the New York Post isn’t sure, noting that Judge already has a significant injury history, is already under team control through his age-30 season, and how the Yankees’ financial situation will be impacted in the post-coronavirus baseball world. There’s also the fact that the Yankees have generally shied away from contract extensions since Hal Steinbrenner took over the team, and the two players whose deals were most recently extended (Aaron Hicks and Luis Severino) have battled injuries since inking those new contracts. Judge is in the first of his three arbitration-eligible seasons, and back in January agreed to an $8.5MM deal for the 2020 season.
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They should sign him, no question.
10/450!
20 year – 1 billion…….and have him play until age 47.
NYY can add Judge to there list of DHs
Stanton
Judge
Andujar
…..
……
Anything short of five or six DHs and the Yankees would be on the lookout for more
Sadly, economic realities combined with Judge’s injury history — including his iffy availability for 2020 — have eliminated any chance of Judge landing a long term big money deal. In fact, with the new reality and the chance that crowds will be minimal through at least 2021, the player who will lose the most is Torres, who should already have his arbitration years bought out. Moving forward, the Stanton and Hicks contracts will prove over time to be albatrosses, and will prevent the Yankees from crafting the wisest deal with Torres.
Don’t forget Clint Frazier as another DH on the Yankee 40 man roster.
Sanchez also
torres will be fine, he will get a big money deal at some point.
They did sign Cano to a extension and that was great but they normally wait till a player is a FA for some reason
What for? He’s already under team control into his 30s and hasn’t been able to stay healthy in his 20s. Get what you can out of him for as little as possible then move on. THAT’S good business.
Johndietz – spot on …..keep him until free agency and let him produce what he can while not hurt, then let him go or the NY will end up with another Ellsbury.
Exactly. Most players only get worse when they hit the 30s, especially big boys like Judge. Mix that in with his injuries and that’s a guy that will fizzle out before he’s 35. Yankee fans won’t want him AND Stanton both on the DH for the majority of the 2020s.
I wouldn’t sign him until they have to. He’s had one full healthy season so far. Some of the injuries may be fluky yes, but he has to prove more he can stay on the field. He’s had oblique and shoulder issues, and those are not fluke. He’s a bigger body that may not age well.
I have a feeling an Aaron Judge extension for the Yanks will be as regretful as the Ryan Howard extension for the Phillies.
He’s 1 dimensional, like Howard was, but hard to tell of course how long the one thing he does well.. Hitting for power will last. Big and exceptionally tall guy.. 6’7 think he is. Dave Parker and Frank Howard come to mind as big, tall and super muscular guys who didn’t put up that big of numbers past early 30’s. The bat speed slows and a LOT more area to cover for guys that big. kind of risky, but NY generally likes to keep the franchise guys they promote.. We’ll see.
Judge one dimensional? If he hit for a bit more average, he’d solidify himself as a 5-tool player, but I don’t think anyone would complain about a .275-.280 AVG with the kind of power and walk numbers he puts up. He’s second among all qualified OF’s since 2017 in DRS, UZR, UZR/150, and 6th in range runs. Although he doesn’t steal bases, he’s pretty fast. His 28.2 feet/second sprint speed which is faster than Mookie Betts, Carlos Gomez, Jose Peraza, and Ketel Marte. Note, league average is 27 feet/second.
One dimensional? Or a few BA points away from five-tool? Talk about two extremes…
yeah that was a stupid comment, he is also one of the best right fielders in baseball when healthy.
That’s a ridiculous statement
True though.
That he’s a near 5-tool player? He can hit for power, is an outstanding fielder, has a great arm (2nd in arm runs above average since ’17), and has above average speed. If he consistently had a ,290+ BA, then he would be a 5-tool guy. But anyone would take a .280-ish BA for the kind of production he puts up overall.
Notice also compared to Dave Parker, who was closer to a complete 5 tool player in his younger days.
Being somewhat speedy on the bases , yet not known for SB’s are 2 different things, same with having a good arm, which he does and not known as an outstanding fielder, which he isn’t.
I’m not knocking the guy, but for example.. Put both he and betts on the market this year and betts gets more money. Betts is a true 5 tool player, not to mention knows how to use his speed and is probably the best defensive RF in the game w/power. I don’t understand all the rubbish on the judgement over knock on his defense. same with Ells, who had speed, yet took poor routes to the ball negating his defense in CF for years. Getting a GG once and all.
baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/aaron-judge-5…
Aaron Judges’ sprint speed is in the upper 79% of all ball players…. That is pretty fast
Aaron Judge currently carries a .272 BA (top 20%) has an wOBP in the top 5%
Judge is a fantastic defender (45 defensive run saved in 3 years) 20 DRS in less than 800 innings last season alone.
Your batting average argument carries zero weight
600 at bats:
.290 = 174
.272 = 163.2
Woo 10 hit difference!
Point being, he checks 5 of 5 boxes.
Arm Strength-Check
Speed-Check
Batting average-Check (the only real knock on this is his K% but his OBP offsets)
Fielding-Check
Power-Check
That being said, I would not extend him unless it was for a massive “discount”. Injury history and big body scares me. Stanton is case in point really because he is really similar.
Stanton was a solid defender in Miami (not as good as Judge). He (Stanton) hit for a good average, didn’t quite have the on base skills as Judge, at least not consistently, he HAD really good speed, good arm strength, just very very similar to Judge. But that body breaks down and you have to be worried about that.
I do agree with you that BA carries little to no weight whatsoever in Judge’s case, but I was only using it as a comparrison to other 5-tool guys.
Judge is an outstanding fielder. I have no idea what makes you think otherwise. He has +45 DRS, 12.6 arm runs above average, 27.2 UZR, a 13.8 UZR/150, and 13.5 range runs. Only Mookie Betts is a better fielder than Judge in right field.
The more outfield he plays the quicker he turns into Ellsbury 2.0
He is great when he is on the field, but it is not great if he is not on the field…..
The most relevant sentence: “[Teams generally like to keep the franchise guys they promote.”
New York knows more than anyone about Judge’s medical history, clubhouse/organizational “fit”, development, work ethic, and everything else a team benefits from having a player in their organization for multiple years.
Cashman is a good GM who is going to make the right move more often than not (when he has the final say). It’ll be very telling if they let him enter free agency or not because his situation (age/injury history) doesn’t strike me as someone who would turn down guaranteed dollars.
Cashman a good GM? Isn’t he the one who signed Ellsbury, Hicks, and trade for Stanton all who are costing the Yankees millions in the past, present, and into the future. If he was the GM of a small market team, he would have been fired for this many poor moves.
“When he has the final say” Ellsbury was part of an ownership-mandated spending spree. If you’re going to point out them, let’s point out how he acquired Chapman for peanuts, traded him for a future All-Star, then resigned him w/o giving up draft pick compensation. Not to mention bringing in guys like Judge, Sanchez, Severino, and others into the organization. Not to mention that he went through a “rebuild” during Jeter’s final years and only finished below .500 once.
The GM of a small market team isn’t making those moves because they don’t have the resources. Good thing he’s the GM of the New York freaking Yankees where the margin for error isn’t as big. They’ll hum along just fine with Cashman leading the way.
Not a Yankees fan btw. Just understand that he’s got the most stressful GM job in baseball and has held onto it for around two decades now. He’s good if not great.
It is my opinion that the GM of a small market team has the more stressful job. He had to try to think of everything that can happen before making a move, because they do not have the gobs of money that the Yankees have to gloss over mistakes, One Stanton, Hicks, or Ellsbury mistake could likely bury his team which could cost him his job.
Cashman is a good GM, but he is not the great God of GM’s that many Yankee fans see him to be.
Being a small market GM is a completely different job than a large market one. Having a high payroll doesn’t just make everything super easy, many GMs have failed horribly with big money. Cashman is a very good GM, perhaps a great one. When you have that kind of money you throw darts sometimes and accept that some of them will fail. I’m certain that if he were the GM of a small market team he would operate very differently. Until he takes a job like that then there is no point in comparing him to small market gms
Exactly. On top of that, it’s the Yankees. It’s where everyone wants to play – center stage with endless pockets of dough. All the endorsement deals are there too.
He’s a fine GM, but every single time there is a free agent or player available for trade all I hear is “Go get him, Cashman.” That’s because the Yankees have resources and money every other team does not. The Dodgers could do similar, but even they could never be The Yankees.
another stupid comment, he is also the one who stole glyber torres, and brought the farm system back to life amongst other things. no gm makes great moves 100% of the time.
John started watching baseball yesterday give him a break
Dave Winfield comp.
Dave Winfield? Through his age 27 comp, baseball reference compares him to Jason Bay. No Winfield on the list.
He’s one dimensional!! Why you ask?? Because John is a Boston Red Sox jock strap sniffer that can’t tolerate to give a Yankee an ounce of praise!
1 dimensional! Guys who have a plus arm, plus range, plus power, and plus patience at the plate are 1 dimensional! Just ask Johnsilver! That’s a 1 dimensional player if he’s ever seen one!
Judge is so great I hope Cashman signs him to a 20 year $1 billion contract. That way he can be a Yankee until he is 47, and hit 1000 home runs for them……lol
You clearly have not watched Judge play or you would have some shred of an idea how good of a player he is on both sides of the ball
“He’s 1 dimensional”? To which dimension are you referring? His high on-base percentage, or his rocket arm, or his above-average speed?
this pandemic came at just the right time for baseball to clean house of any of its honest community members. scouts, umpires, low level MiLB team owners, etc. it all just played right into their hands. granted, dont count tour chickens until they hatch, but it would be a real shame to see these teams cry poor when they make so much money. even these small market teams could keep paying their employees for at least a few years and not go under. the potential claims of financial hardship are all a joke when you’re in such a strong trust and have such a large cushion of cash.
They shouldn’t be in any rush to extend judge. He is a great player and seems to be a good dude, but his injury history is concerning and he hasn’t been able to stay on the field the last couple years. Let him play out his arbitration years and sign him at the end of that if he has performed. Even then, he’ll be 30 and I doubt there are many comparable players to get an idea how his body will age.
Seriously, Judge is unbelievably popular in NY, maybe more than Mookie was in Boston. Judge will be the ultimate test of the Yankee’s recent discipline. He is obviously too risky for a big contract that goes into even his early thirties but are they willing to face the ire of the fans and let him walk or better yet, trade him before he completely falls apart?
Nope, dont extend him till he proves he can play 2 seasons straight healthy-
Negatives far outweigh the positives here
Love the player but throwing money at him right now is just showing puppy love, I see more Bulldog in Cashman
“Negatives far outweigh the positives”. LOL. Sure the Yankees shouldn’t be in a rush to extend him but to say he is a liability is beyond ridiculous.
Liability?
All depends how long the contract extension is
Negatives far outweigh positives. Thats called a liability.
Pertaining to an extension-
Again Love the player ,but theres no need to throw money at him now, you do realize that the Yankees can sit on this for awhile right with zero ramifications right?
Thats a perfectly logical angle, one they will probably take in the end, I have no clue where you are attempting to go with “liability”-
I think he is referring to the negatives of a contract extension, not the negatives of Judge the player.
Judge only had one good season. An extension would be a terrible idea.
That’s a bit of a stretch.
He’s had one legitimate MVP contention level season and 2 good to great seasons (Injury shortened they may have been, 2018 and 2019 he managed to put up All-Star level numbers in a shortened season).
I likewise wouldn’t extend him right now because of the injury history (Unless he went way below market value, then you have to take the risk), but “one good season” is just wrong. To put his worst full season in context: he put up a higher WAR last year in 102 games than any one Royal put up at all.. To put an even deeper context to it, his 102 game WAR total last year (Again, his worst full season so far), he put up a higher WAR than literally any batter on the 2015 Championship Royals team except for Cain.
Hicks sucks. So overrated. For starters, .236 career average. Laughable
Judge has had 1 great season. 2 seasons at 27 HR and 55 RBI and another at 27 HR and 67 RBI? Why would anyone be in a hurry to sign him? He has Dave Kingman written all over him.
You are judging a player in one of the worst ways possible; RBI’s. In those two years you just brought up, he has batted .276/.387/.543. His 146 wRC+ is the 9th highest in baseball in the past 2 years. He has posted a outstanding defensive numbers, He’s also one of only 17 batters since the begining of 2018 to have a .900+ OPS.
But yea, only one good year.
If RBI represents the players around you… shouldnt those numbers be inflated because judge has had great players around him.
Judge also batted 2nd most of the time in 2018 and 2019. In 2017, most of his plate appearances came from the #3 spot and #5 spot. If he batted between 3-5 in 2018 and 2019, he probably would have way more RBI’s.
RBIisalreadyplural
Which are actually really good numbers for a 112 game season and 102 game season.
Miggy cabrera had 59 in 136 games. By far a much worse team around him.
Mike Trout: 102 RBIs per 162 games. Aaron Judge: 101 RBIs per 162 games. If you were to use RBIs as the sole metric, a healthy Judge is 99% as good as Trout.
Position players over 6’5 250 probably don’t age well I’d imagine. Yanks should play it out.
Well what’s “long term”? He’s not getting a 200M+ contract right now, obviously. He could end up getting one if he earns it in the next couple years, but right now he’s injured again, coming off two injury shortened seasons. He would have to stay 100% healthy from here on in, to hope to get that much.
And I doubt he’ll settle for a short extension. He has the arbitration money, and he has significant income from endorsements. So he can take some risks, to try and maximize his career earnings.
But, you know, if he is interested in a reasonable extension, that takes into consideration the unusual level of risk the Yankees would be taking on (signing someone with his size, and a worrying injury history, is uncharted territory), I’m sure the Yanks are willing to talk. 5 years, 100M, with a team option at the end, seems like something they’d happily agree to.
As for the coronavirus, my main worry is that NY politicians will come up with some kind of moronic long term restriction on public events, where ticket sales are capped. If the Yankees aren’t allowed to sell more than 15,000 tickets/game, for instance, in the next two years, that’s going to hurt. But even with that, they will still have more money coming in than most teams.
@stansfield123
Judge is a really difficult one – I do agree with your comments & most of those above who consider him close to if not quite a five tool player – his arm, & his overall defence are both excellent and often missed or ignored.
But in simple terms he’s a big bloke and and plays defence at full tilt 100% full power – with seemingly no regard for his body – which might explain his popularity with fans… and some of his injuries…
What are his 2 future arb years looking like salary wise? Because if he’s getting anywhere near Mookie money in his final season of control I doubt $100m over five years would cut it. However if they offered it at the end of 2020 – buying out two arb years it’s a bit more reasonable and less risk from the both points of view….
If they could DH him a bit more – it’d save him – from himself – he played precisely 10 games as a DH last year. Great player – weirdly maligned.
After reading these comments, if Judge is so good, is George Springer a Hall of Famer?
Resisting the temptation to question his credentials in certain (especially post) seasons? Too easy, so….
Only H of F for looking like a startled rabbit on amphetamines in his baseball ref photo.
He’s first ballot in that one….
baseball-reference.com/players/s/springe01.shtml
A face only a mother could love.
epmgaa.media.clients.ellingtoncms.com/img/photos/2…
Yes, that one’s a beauty and a credit to his orthodontist.
Regardless are we arguing which one is more HOF worthy on the basis of their rabbit/donkey impersonations? If so, I believe we’ve highlighted another hole in the voting process….
Both benefited from Carlos Beltran.
Who cares what Sherman thinks ?
Long-term? Judge is such a great athlete but he is so big and so muscle-bound but I’d be worried about him throwing his body around. He can’t seem to stay healthy because of those facts.
Usually guys that size have shoulder pads and a helmet on and playing tight end in the National Football League.
So long term? No
I think we can all agree, Judge does stink. 19.1 BWAR in a total of 17.18 PA….who would want a player like that? In all seriousness, though, it’s not clear to me that an extremely long term extension, right now, makes any sense for the Yankees. He is injured a lot, and he is under control for a while longer. I’d wait and see.
I love the guy, he seems to be a good guy, he plays hard and as a top ballplayer in my opinion, however I would not give him an extension this year, see how it plays out in the short season, and revisit it next year….I have a hard time believing he could garner a huge contract right now from any team because of his injuries
-Red Sox fan
NYY look at Chris Sale signing for a comparison …..he was injured the second half of 2018 and DD signed him to a 5 year $145 million and got what he deserved. Yes, front office said ok, but moral of the story….do not sign big extension when a player is coming off a season where he has missed a significant number of games.
Cashman is like a Supreme Court justice…..he has a lifetime contract…….lol
20 year $ 1 billion for Judge……lol
When Judge is healthy, he’s a top 10 player in baseball.
The new conditioning and performance staff should be a benefit to Judge. A normal healthy year would see him at .280BA with 45-50 HRs and a .400 OBP.
DO NOT SIGN HIM OR ANYONE ELSE UNLESS YOU GET A DEAL LIKE THE BRAVES GOT. Too much money in guaranteed contracts limits your options and you get stuck with a soft, broken little premadona like Stanton. Horrible!!!!!!!