The last MLB expansion draft took place on November 18th, 1997. Each of the 28 existing teams was able to initially protect 15 players, with the Devil Rays and Diamondbacks mostly alternating picks to fill their new rosters.
The first round consisted of one player being taken from each of the 28 teams, giving the Devil Rays and D’Backs 14 players each. At that point, each of the 28 teams was able to protect an additional three players. After the completion of the second round, each team added another three players to their protected list. In the third round, the Rays and D’Backs would each take an additional seven players, with each new club ending up with 35 in total.
Detailed rules can be found here, but basically each team’s best prospects were not eligible for the draft. Still, about a quarter of the players chosen were minor leaguers. Also, players with no-trade clauses or ten-and-five rights had to be put on protected lists unless they waived those rights. And there would be no reason to protect players eligible for free agency.
We thought it would be fun to determine each team’s current 15-player protected list, as if a new two-team expansion draft is scheduled for November. For simplicity’s sake, only players with MLB experience will be eligible for our mock expansion draft.
So far, we’ve done the Yankees.
Next up, we’ll shape a 15-player protected list for the Red Sox.
Free agents Mitch Moreland, Martin Perez, Collin McHugh, Jackie Bradley Jr., Kevin Pillar, and Brandon Workman will be excluded. The Red Sox have club options on Moreland and Perez, but I don’t think they would burn protected spots on them regardless.
Dustin Pedroia, Chris Sale, J.D. Martinez, and Xander Bogaerts automatically take up four of the 15 spots due to their no-trade rights. That leaves 11 more players to protect. I’ve decided to lock in six more spots for the following players:
Rafael Devers
Eduardo Rodriguez
Christian Vazquez
Andrew Benintendi
Alex Verdugo
Michael Chavis
That leaves five spots for these 19 players:
Matt Barnes
Ryan Brasier
Colten Brewer
Austin Brice
Nathan Eovaldi
Matt Hall
Heath Hembree
Darwinzon Hernandez
Tzu-Wei Lin
Chris Mazza
Josh Osich
Jose Peraza
Kevin Plawecki
Mike Shawaryn
Jeffrey Springs
Josh Taylor
Phillips Valdez
Marcus Walden
Ryan Weber
With that, we turn it over to the MLBTR readership! In the poll below, please select exactly five players that you think the Red Sox should protect in our upcoming mock expansion draft. Click here to view the results.
Perfect time to unprotect bad contracts for any team
Yeah, but they probably wouldn’t be taken. Guess it never hurts to try, but would a team really take on a guy like Eovaldi at his price? Doubt it, even with the inflated cost of pitching.
I get it, buuuuut, I decided to protect Eovaldi. I don’t see how the Sox could handle losing another starting pitcher.
Sox handle losing eovaldi by reinvesting the salary savings, it’d be the offseason.
Either pick up someone of similar ability at half cost and use the savings elsewhere, or, reinvest all the cash on an improvement.
As has been said by others, they could handle losing Eovaldi by reinvesting the money they now no longer have to pay him into someone better.
Pedroia would allow the team to not protect him. No expansion team would pick him.
It wouldn’t matter if another team picked him, he’s never playing again.
Barnes and Hernandez are the must save for me. I’m not protecting Eovaldi, even with the limited starting pitching if someone wants to take that much money off your hands for free, especially for a guy who can’t stay healthy, you do it. Surprised Brasier has so many votes after last season but with a bunch 4A guys to choose from he’s probably the most appealing
I think Taylor, Hernandez, and Walden are the only locks. I also voted Barnes and Lin, but I don’t think those pieces are invaluable. The 3 players I mentioned have a great combination of ability and limited service time / earning power making them highly valuable assets. This isn’t just who’s the best player, it’s who’s the best combination of player and contract
Would you really rather have 1 year if Matt Barnes instead of 5 years of Taylor?
I feel Taylor is a far better pick for the team short term and long term!!
Wonder if this hastens expansion for the revenue aspect? If it does who’s get teams?
depends on how many. if its two LV is probable but the second is a wild card. I think any if Vancouver, OKC, Buffalo, or Nashville/a Carolinas team would make a good second choice
I’m curious: why not Portland? I’d rank the Rose City ahead of Buffalo and maybe OKC. I agree with you on your other suggestions.
Las Vegas MLB would be a lot of fun tbh
i always look at it from.a geographical situation. Buffalo probably is less of a geographic need but also already has multiple pro sports teams, though id agree Portland may be better. OKC though i think makes sense given tge lack of teams in the upper Midwest. (even if OKC isnt that “upper”)
Portland has to be at the top. LV and San Antonio make sense too. But I’d love to see San Juan PR.
i think if San Juan is a candidate then it jumps well up the list. i just dont know how likely it is to be in the running.
Not much to protect from what’s left … Id save Barnes Walden and Brasier to solidify the bullpen .. I’d protect Peraza since hes still young and has played well in the past and is a former top prospect .. after that I went with Eovaldi despite the contract … He has the skills and the stuff to be a solid rotation piece behind Sale in the future
Lol the Sox would be doing cartwheels if someone were to take Eovaldi off their hands. Good thing you’re not the GM.
Barnes, Hernandez, and Shawaryn are locks in my book, and id also keep Peraza. Last spot comes down to Walden, Brewer, or Brasier to me, but Brewer gets my vote because he’s much younger and trending in the right direction.
forgot about Hembree there actually. i guess id still take Brewer given Hembree is probably a pending FA, but i could see Hembree being the selection.
Anyone else look at the link to the last expansion draft, there are like 4 players that even had “real” mlb careers the rest are at best AAAA players, ik you could block ur 15 best players but still that is surprising, especially when they also drafted minor leaguers
yeah its surprising how bad the last two expansion drafts have been. maybe if its just a single team selecting it works out better for them.
That’s definitely not true, even when accounting for hyperbole.
I his is fun. I great idea! I think that Eovaldi is one to let go because either he won’t be picked or you get rid of a bad contract.
Obviously Darwin and Barnes. After that there are no obvious picks but personally I’d go with Eovaldi, and take a gamble on Peraza and Hembree.
Lol the Sox would be doing cartwheels if someone were to take Eovaldi off their hands. Good thing you’re not the GM.
I realise that Eovaldi is overpaid, but out of everyone on that list he’s the only SP that has any kind of track record of producing in the majors. If you were to take Eovaldi out of the rotation who’ve you got left other than E-Rod and Sale? Perez is a back end starter at best, Weber has made all of 11 big league starts and has a career ERA over 5, and Darwin is going to be used (at least to start with) out of the bullpen. McHugh could potentially be an option but he’s just another question mark at this point.
In regards to his salary, if we’re talking about the Pirates or someone like that then perhaps I’d be more inclined to leave him unprotected, but this is the Red Sox we’re talking about. They already did their big salary cutting move, they can absorb it without much problem.
You’re a special kind of stupid aren’t you? Eovaldi only gives them another starter when he is healthy, which is never.
“If you were to take Eovaldi out of the rotation who’ve you got left other than E-Rod and Sale?”
The better/less injury prone starter that the Red Sox can use the money they now aren’t paying Eovaldi to sign.
Which starting pitcher on the open market, worthy of Eovaldi’s current salary, do you recommend they sign as a replacement? Unless i’m forgetting someone the only options left are basically depth pieces. I’m not saying Eovaldi’s worthy of his contract or that it was a good idea in the first place, but they don’t exactly have a ton of options right now.
Also: “You’re a special kind of stupid aren’t you?”
This is a debate about a hypothetical scenario in a game. Seriously dude, relax.
Marcus Stroman, Robbie Ray, Trevor Bauer and James Paxton are four good starting pitchers off the top of my head that are free agents next offseason.
Name-calling demonstrates you have a negative IQ, non-existent sperm count, and were likely brain-damaged during your mom’s drunken binges while pregnant with your worthless, brain-dead zombie corpse.
Well if that’s not the pot calling the kettle black…
Eovaldi would be a huge wild card in this series. his selection or lack of would bear a lot on the strategy of the selecting GM. if such a team hired DD i would see him as the pick, but not every expansion GM is that aggressive.
Barnes and Hernandez are probably worth protecting. I would certainly let Eovaldi go and use the money elsewhere.. This is one of the thinnest rosters in the league, so there aren’t a whole lot of difficult decisions to make.
This is an awesome idea and I’m looking forward to seeing all 30 teams. I have to ask though, is it right to include Pedroia on this list? Even if a draft were to happen tomorrow, the Red Sox would never let that NTC stick. And I can’t see any team picking him up even if he were left unprotected. Other than that, my picks are Hembree, Peraza, Barnes, Walden, and Hernandez. I wouldn’t pick Eovaldi with his injury history and that contract. I think the Sox would love to see that get taken away with absolutely no penalty.
The Sox have no say in Pedroia’s NTC. They can’t rescind it so unless he retires, he has to be included on the protected list per league rules. Same with Chris Davis in BAL. Nothing either team can do about it.
Barnes, Hernandez, and TAylor are no-brainers. After that, it’s a complete crapshoot…
I chose Josh Taylor, D. Hernandez, Matt Barnes, Austin Brice, and Phillips Valdez. The Red Sox need pitching, well here it is. All have good upside, and most are fairly young. Valdez won’t be a popular pick because his line doesn’t look that good, plus he isn’t well known, but he did very well in limited appearances for the Rangers last season, but what set him off was a bad outing or two,
I matched your choices except I picked Walden vs Brice. After the first 3 (Hernandez, Barnes, Taylor), this is a disappointing list for Red Sox fans, to be sure.
Pedroia would waive and give them another player to protect.
I agree. I doubt that the Red Sox would even need to ask before he waived it.
Love this idea…. but the Red Sox one isn’t nearly as fun as the Yankees one. Not much depth here.
Barnes and Hernandez for sure. Probably Brasier. Maybe Walden?
Rock Paper Scissors tourney for the last spot?
Barnes, Darwinzon, Taylor, Peraza, Walden
Barnes, Brasier, Brice, Hernandez and Walden
I only protected Barnes
Pretty easy call.
Hernandez – his stuff is filthy, if he can improve his command of the strike zone to “effectively wild” territory he could be a nasty late inning reliever. If he can improve his command of the strike zone to actually being good, he could be a solid starter. Best ML-ready arm in the system.
Barnes/Walden/Brasier – solid if unspectacular bullpen arms, which we need in abundance since our rotation is currently so full of question marks
Peraza – former top 100 prospect, cheap, still young, has shown flashes of being a capable major leaguer but struggled with consistency while getting jerked around on some Reds teams that were stuck spinning their wheels in the mud. Might be wishful thinking but still has a non zero chance to turn into a useful player
Honorable mention is Eovaldi – not that I don’t want him on the team but with his contract I doubt he would be taken anyway so I don’t see the need to burn a protected spot on him. And as others have noted, if someone wants to take that much money off your hands for free it’s generally a good idea to let them.
I don’t like the “have to protect guys with no-trade clauses” rule. Like take Albert Pujols, Chris Davis and Eric Hosmer for instance. Even if they aren’t protected, who’s taking them?
The expansion draft is not only about the teams protecting guys but we’re also looking out for the team doing the drafting. So it’s give-and-take here.
This is much tougher without the minor leaguers being included as I struggled to find 5 guys the Sox should protect on this list. They’d certainly protect minor leaguers on the 40 man roster like: Dalbec, Duran and Downs (if he’s on the 40 man) over most guys on this list. The only no brainers on the current list are Darwinzon and Barnes and possibly Taylor as well. I wouldn’t lost any sleep over any of the remaining guys being taken, even Eovaldi as freeing up his salary would be well worth the pain of losing him.
But I completely understand why MLBTR chose this route and it’s a fun exercise for sure. Can’t want to see the rest of the teams, especially deep teams like the Dodgers, Astros and even the Padres (lots of young talent).
I went with Barnes, Hembree, Hernandez, Taylor and Walden.
Looks to me like people mostly voted on name recognition. Why would you protect Eovaldi? He’s unlikely to be selected, and if he is then that’s a bad contract gone.
Not a whole lot of must haves for sure. I doubt their would be much sleep lost over any of them leaving.
The post is flawed unless they completely change the rules as past expansion drafts have included minor league teams as well.
“For the first round, 15 players from the rosters of their entire organization—both their 40-man roster, plus all MINOR LEAGUE AFFILIATES.”
Triston Casas
Jeter Downs
Noah Song
Since minor league players could and would be taken, the three listed above would be on my list.
Unless there is some rule that says Pedroia has to be on the list (no trade clause is irrelevant as no one would take an injuries player who has not played in three years-2018, 2019, 2020).
The Wikipedia article uses this as a source.
nowhitting.com/index.php?option=com_content&v…
That site says:
“All Players in an organization are eligible to be drafted, except those with no prior major league experience who have less than three years service if signed at age 19 or older or have less than four years of service if signed at age 18 or younger.”
Casas – signed at age 18. At this time has 2 years service
Downs – signed at age 18 – 3 years service
Song – signed at 22 – 1 year service
So, I wouldn’t think those guys would be eligible to be drafted. Some minor leaguers would be. As explained above, I made a choice to not try to make that determination for all minor leaguers.
On Pedroia:
“From the eligible list, major league teams may protect 15 players prior to the draft. Ten/five players (players with ten years of major league service, five consecutive with the same team) and players with no-trade clauses in their contracts for the 1998 season must be on the protected list unless they waive those rights.”
Pedroia has 10-and-5 rights, and I don’t think he’d waive them to make himself eligible for the expansion draft. So I believe the NTC actually is relevant, and it doesn’t matter whether the team wants the player. The expansion draft doesn’t override the NTC.
Bryan Mata – 4 seasons in system – 20 yrs old
Bobby Dalbec – 4 – 24
Tanner Houck – 3 – 23
Connor Wong – 3 – 24
CJ Chatham – 4 – 25
Marcus Wilson – 5 – 23
Eduardo Bacardo 5 – 24
Some of the above could be taken depending on exact service time and would be taken over the list of waiver claims and low ceiling trades listed in the article.
Dalbec, Mata, and Houck would be more likely than the others, however, if the claimed players are not required to stay on the 25/26 man roster any of the above could be solid additions as the list provided could be easily replaced cheaply through FA
yikes, that is a whole lotta nothing. Darwinzon and Eovaldi. And only Eovaldi because they basically have 3 starters right now.
Lol the Sox would be doing cartwheels if someone were to take Eovaldi off their hands. Good thing you’re not the GM.
“But they only have 3 starters now!”
They could then reinvest the money they aren’t paying Eovaldi into a better/less injury prone starter.
Did you repeat that line 50000 times?
So we’re just going to allow Chatham, Dalbec, Duran, Hart and Mata be taken? Darwinzon is the only one on that list I’d protect. Also is any real expansion draft they’d release Pedroia before allowing him to steal a spot on the protected list.
I think Pedroia might allow them to leave him unprotected, knowing that he won’t get taken.
Expansion? They need contraction. Lots of crappy pitchers in MLB
I’m not protecting Andrew Benintendi. He looks like Mark Wahlberg in a Red Sox Uniform and I’m done listing his positive contributions to the team. Let him go.
They would be better off not protecting any of those 19 players. To be honest all they need to protect is Xander and Devers. The team is garbage and needs a clean slate
l find it odd that we’re discussing expansion when we should be talking contraction. I can watch any MLB game l want and some of the stadiums are almost empty. LOL
I’ll bet if the Red Sox or NYY allowed Tampa to play their home games in BOS or NY they’d draw a larger crowd than they now do in Tampa.
LOL
Contraction would mean not only the small crowds in the stadiums, but look at the shortage of quality starting pitching. Teams are having to use either openers or AAAA starters who are getting lit up regularly.
Contraction would mean that those potential MLB cities simply keep their AAA team. It also means cheaper ticket prices and fans in smaller stadiums sitting closer to the players and the action. Players association wants expansion so that more players can make minimum wage $550,000 and more mega contracts. Owners want the money new franchise owners will have to pay to buy into the league. The losers will be the fans in the AAA cities who get priced out when the games are triple the price.
I grew up in a AAA city and greatly prefer a night at the AAA park…..I could go a dozen times a year if I wanted for the price of two or three games in a MLB park…..
Surprised how many people are missing the value and long-term control of Josh Taylor. He’s a serious asset.
I’d say he’s easily top-3 of this list for me. Probably #2 considering Barnes would only have 1 year of control left.
Agreed. Hernandez, Taylor and Barnes were the only “slam dunks” for me.
Importance to the team LONG TERM…Pitching, Pitching, Pitching…!!!
#1 D Hernandez and 5 years of control
#2 J Taylor and 5 years of control (ERA 3.04)
#3 A Brice and 3 years of control (ERA 3.43)
#4 M Walden and 4 years of control (ERA 3.79)
#5 R Brasier and 3 years of control (ERA 3.48)
Honorable Mention:
P Valdez and 5 years of control (ERA 3.94)
M Barnes and 1 year of control (ERA 4.07 and 6 for 20 career saves/opportunities)
R Weber and 4 years of control