This post is about Angels shortstop Andrelton Simmons. But really, it’s about how teams value and conceive of defense in the game of baseball … and what his upcoming free agency could tell us about it.
On the one hand, it’s rather straightforward: preventing runs is as good as creating them. It’s an oversimplification, but for the most part the name of the game is simply to turn would-be baserunners into outs.
Things get quite a bit more complicated when you wade into an attempt at valuing a given player’s impact on a team’s ability to make outs and prevent runs. Avoiding miscues is obviously a big part of the picture, but that hardly provides the full picture of a defender. (Past a diving Jeter, anyone?) Range — the ability to get to more balls — is obviously of critical importance. And there are a host of subtle skills to consider … catcher framing, perhaps, being the most susceptible of statistical precision. But how do you value a tagging maestro, for example? And how do we account for contemporary baseball’s ceaseless shifting, particularly given that much of it is engineered by analysts rather than players’ gut instincts on positioning?
While it’s pretty easy to get a sense of a hitter’s profile and productivity from a glance at a stat sheet, it’s obvious that truly understanding defensive value requires more. Even the most sophisticated analytical systems have struggled to reach anything like the kind of precision that we’d need to make fine distinctions. Ultimate Zone Rating, Defensive Runs Saved, and the more recent Statcast-based Outs Above Average all have their merits and aid in the understanding of a ballplayer. But it’d be a stretch to say that you could look at the numbers they produce and use them to determine that player A is superior to player B at fielding his position.
All that said … shouldn’t we listen when all the stats, and all the scouts, and all that we see with our own eyes tell us that one particular player is in his own particular category when it comes to defensive play? On a rate basis, no infielder comes particularly close to Simmons in UZR. To understand how that translates to value when estimating runs saved and tabulating wins above replacement … well, just look how many more innings it took guys like J.J. Hardy and Jimmy Rollins to accrue similar total value above replacement at the shortstop position. And it’s not just UZR. Far from it. By measure of DRS, Simmons has been outlandishly superior to the rest of the shortstop field. Statcast, at least, shows some competition over the past three seasons from Nick Ahmed, but it too agrees that Simmons is an exceptional performer. (It’s also less than clear that Statcast is as useful for infielders as it is for outfielders.)
It doesn’t seem wild to presume, for purposes of this post at least, that Simmons is a historically amazing defensive performer. Teams no doubt have their own ways of translating fielding performance to value, but it’s generally reasonable to believe they’ll put a high price on run prevention. Even if you’d rather market a slugger than a glove-first shortstop, there’s no general reason to prefer the former to the latter from a competitive standpoint.
Indeed, there’s an argument to be made that a truly elite defender is all the more valuable to a team — especially in this day and age. Positioning defenders to account not only for hitters, but defenders, has long been a part of the sport. But it’s now done with much greater sophistication and frequency. The Reds just signed Mike Moustakas to play second base after watching the Brewers try him there despite a career spent at third. For creative ballclubs looking for ways to shoehorn every advantage into a lineup, the ability to deploy a human vacuum/cannon on the left side of the infield could convey even greater value than that player’s directly attributable individual contribution.
It’s truly fascinating to imagine what teams might envision doing with Simmons … and wondering how much they’ll be willing to pay. (Setting aside the likely market-skewing impact of the coronavirus-shortened season, anyway.) The Diamondbacks just made a fairly significant outlay to Ahmed, despite the fact he has never really come close to league-average offensive productivity over a full season and was still a year from free agency. Even if you believe Ahmed has approached Simmons in defensive capabilities, he hasn’t done it as long. And Simmons has a far superior overall track record at the plate, with a lifetime batting output that’s about the same as Ahmed’s single-season peak. Supposing Simmons is in typical form in 2020 — unparalleled glovework and league-average-ish offense — he ought to fetch a fair sight more on the open market … particularly if big-market teams get involved with big ideas about how to squeeze value from such a unique player.
I would like to see a comparison between Simmons and Correa.
not even close!
Agreed. Simmons is so much better. The last three years Simmons is 5th in WAR for shortstops, Correa is tenth. Twice in the last three years Simmons has finished in the top three in WAR for Shortstops.
It’s not close.
Remove fielding and replace with hitting
Simmons ain’t nothing special with the bat but a gem with the glove.
Hey, you just described Ozzie Smith.
I don’t see why you can’t recognize he’s a better than average hitting shortstop and one of the best defensive shortstops to ever play the game.
Correa has missed considerable time due to injuries. That is part of the WAR gap that exists. That’s a tough call between the two. Age and offense are certainly in Correa’s favor and I would imagine he gets the much larger deal. Don’t know who will be the better value though
Simmons already has the 14th highest dWAR of all time. If he keeps up that pace for the next 5 or so seasons, he could pass Ozzie Smith.
I loved Ozzie Smith, but the game was so much different. Spit ballers, junk ballers, knuckleballers, groundball specialists across the league. I haven’t looked it up, but I imagine he recorded substantially more outs on a yearly basis. In this homer crazy era, not only is Simmons creating that value with less overall opportunities, but he’s doing it with pitchers that throw harder, and exit velocities that are much higher, on average. I’d say 3-4 more gold-glove caliber years and we can call him the best of all time. I think his peak defensive ability at shortstop is far and away the best anyone has ever seen. Supremely underrated, but absolutely magnificent to watch, if you understand all that he does.
It all depends on the team really. A team with a loaded offense can easily swallow his offensive shortcomings.
he was hitting well ’16-’18. then he was injured in ’19.
No, he did not hit well in 2016, and he was only a little above-average in 2017-18.
2.3, 3.7, 3.8 o-war is just a little above average? you must be a fan of a baseball team playing on top of everest! what an invalid post that was!
In 2017 his wRC+ for shorstops wa 9th. In 2018 it was 9th. His combined WAR was second.
He’s a tremendous defensive player, but he’s not only a defensive player.
Vizion. I don’t think he’s looking at it in context. For a shortstop 105 wRC+ is well above average. For a RF it’s not, but for a shortstop it is.
He also didn’t have the luxury of knowing what pitches were coming at him like Correa.
And a team with a deep defense can absorb a bad fielder I suppose?
Andrelton Simmons is a future Hall of Famer! Just ask Foolish Baseball.
“A run saved by the glove is just as valuable as one created by the bat”-Benjamin Franklin
Benjamin Franklin – 1706 -1790 died 86 years before the National League began (1876)…..?
Did baseball gloves even exist in the 1700s?
No, but seers did.
He could be quoting Benjamin Franklin or… he could be using his quote “a penny saved is a penny earned” as a way of saying that a run saved is a good as a run earned. I’ll let you decide
I’d like to believe the first one… xD
I KNEW Ben Franklin….and he never said that.
He was always in his cellar tinkerng with a new vibrator for the missus.
Agreed. There’s no way this guy even get near the building with that offense. He’s very weak in traditional stats such as avg., hits and home runs (though he’s not a home run guy), obp, slugging, ops, and ops+. He’s even low in owar, in my opinion, if you buy that stat.
While he is a great defender and competent hitter at times, this is one players really benefiting from WAR.
As always, people get paid more for offense because “chicks dig the long ball”.
But there is nothing better then watching an amazing short stop play defense.
You’re not entirely wrong. I wouldn’t want a glove first COF, or 1B. I don’t care as much about defense there as I do run production. I 100% agree with you about glove first SS, and their value though- they’re vastly underappreciated. Simmons is a magician in the field.
While I don’t entirely disagree. No one wants to watch a 0-0 game. And at the end of the day if all you had on both teams was a bunch of defensive wizards who kept anyone from scoring, at some point the guy while can muscle one out wins the game. Offense is the reason I watch the game at the end of the day. Even if a nice defensive play is fun every once in a while
*who can
No one wants an 0-0 game? Some of the best games I’ve ever seen or can remember were 0-0 going into the ninth.
amen!
Jkurk, you need to reevaluate what fans prefer. My favorite games are pitchers duels. From the responses to you I’m reading, I’m not the only fan that enjoys low scoring affairs.
Yankees should nab him
he won’t be an freeagent. he enjoys playing in oc.
like how Cole was going to go to LAA?
And how Manny Machado liked big markets?
yeah, that burns. however we’ll be enjoying the later years of that contract from afar!
Like Pujols!
$1 billion extra tv money for signing him. his jersey was a #2 seller until recently. above all else, he is a super stardom guide to trout. that alone pays his salary!
People only look at Pujols as a between the lines baseball move, as you noted, it was so much more than that.
I’m not a fan of the move, but it’s not as simple to evaluate the move as most believe.
The 26th man making league miminum barely playing and selling zeros of merch would be considered an overpay. You want the owners to open the books Viz? Fine. The top players will not like what they see and many will start finding ways to cut the bottom end, part-time players not generating the same revenue. Players will turn on players. There will be more fallout if that happens. Be careful what you wish for.
yeah, dream on!
And how Jon Lester was going to take a hometown discount?
*cannon
But are you sure it wasn’t a musical reference?
i’m disappointed at posters here. was waiting to see someone responds the post. btw, my wife is a music teacher.
funny way to spell Oscar Colas
Still waiting for the current free agent to sign. Yasiel Puig.
no can do!
If you want to know how good a player is defensively, go ask a pitcher. Great defenders help pitchers immensely.
When a ball is crushed or hit in the hole, the pitcher is thinking, oh crap. Than a great defensive play is made and the pitcher is all smiles knowing they just dodged a bullet.
As a pitcher, you remember guys that consistently save your butt. Simmons is that guy.
Can’t imagine how bad that LAA rotation would have been without Simba and Trout up the middle. Still smh at my Braves…
The Angels need to sign Simmons. I’m a big fan of Fletcher, but he’s not in Simmons class.
fletcher is a future gold-glover if the team lets him play 2b.
It would be nice to see Rendon, Simmons and Fletcher in the infield for the next few years. I know the Angels pitchers would approve.
i concur!
In the Spring of 2019 I was no fan of Fletcher. Watching him everyday made me a believer. That guy is a ballplayer.
I’d like to see the Angels extend Simmons to finish out his career. I’m a big fan.
meet too
What interests me about dWAR and defensive calculations into player value is how they value positions. Of course, the up-the-middle positions are the most important defensive positions in the game, in some order (I think I read once on Fangraphs it went SS-C-CF-2B?). After those, it’s probably 3B, RF, LF, and 1B in that order.
I’m unsure if WAR factors these in. I think of Christian Yelich in Miami, who was thought of as a stud defensive LF (though dWAR on B-Ref and Fangraphs never rated him very highly) and modestly above average at the plate (until he came to Milwaukee, of course). But LF is one of the least defensive positions in the came: traditionally, it’s been where the worst defensive OF is placed.
I always thought most of Yelich’s value prior to 2018 came from his defense (and his team-friendly contract). But how important is it to have an elite defensive LF as compared to an above average defensive C? I’d argue that the two are the same in terms of impact on defense. I’d much rather have an elite defensive C than an elite defensive LF, all else being equal. But I don’t know that WAR really reflects that.
Matt Olson and Jose Iglesias both posted identical dWAR last year. Obviously both are elite defenders at their positions, but how is Iglesias not more valuable defensively since he plays a far more consequential position?
Just thinking outloud.
There is a positional adjustment in WAR based on average offense for the position. Generally, C and SS get positive adjustments, 2B, 3B, and CF are closer to zero, but usually a little positive. RF, LF, and 1B get negative adjustments. A full time DH will get the worst adjustment.
DWar on Baseball Reference is based on DRS + the positional adjustment.
Rey Ordonez WAR is 1.2 in 973 games.
Simmons WAR is 36.3 in 1060 games.
Was Ordonez a vastly overrated defender, or was his offense just that bad?
Combination of the two?
His offense was that bad. His career 59 OPS+ should give you some insight into how atrocious he was with the bat. Simmons is no masher, but at least he approaches league average at the plate with his career 91 OPS+, which has been trending up as his career has advanced.
I’m not sure how much value you can place on fielding measures for Ordonez, who played before DRS, UZR+, and other objective measures about the ability to get to specific balls in play. He had a very strong arm. He got to balls that we think others wouldn’t have. He was slick and smooth and didn’t make a lot of mistakes. It’s just hard without HD cameras, measures of how hard balls were hit and where and how far he had to go to make the play to reach an objective evaluation. If anything, modern measures of fielding ability place much less emphasis on being able to make every routine play smoothly and more on the ability to get to balls that other fielders can’t. I spent a lot of time watching Asdrubal Cabrera and Wilmer Flores both try to play short, second, and third for the Mets. Neither had any range. The former looked slick in the field, picking up grounders he could reach and making clean tosses on DPs and throws to first. The latter looked like he was learning the position, with lots of bobbles and awkward throws. Yet, Fangraphs rated both at the bottom of their positions/ I took from this that Wilmer’s deficiencies with the glove and arm, while looking bad, when measured in terms of costing runs, was not significantly different when compared to the runs that both players cost the Mets because of poor range. Therefore, I suspect that, while I wouldn’t say that Ordonez was vastly overrated, his strongest defensive skills–making every play cleanly, both with the glove and the arm–are not as valuable as we might have thought.
Look at outs above average. People do all the work for you. The measure velocity of balls hit, how fast the runner is, where the fielder is positioned. They take 99% of the guess work out of it.
I personally think publicly available defensive metrics (admittedly I’m thinking mostly OF, but also INF in some cases) are at least 2/3 confirmation bias.
Interesting claim. Confirmation bias is looking for things that support your prior beliefs, right?
Wow, that awful contract he signed with the Braves is finally going to run out? I thought he would never see free agency.
“Awful” contract?
Oh wait, sarcasm.
Why do you upvote your own comments?
Defense is overrated by WAR in general. Good defense is important, of course, but good offense is significantly more valuable at every position other than catcher (and technically pitcher).
We know how good Simmons was defensively, we now have stats that measure every play. Simmons was 16 outs above average last year. Make him average, take those 16 outs and add them to his hit column, he’s a 304 hitter last year.
David Fletcher
our future all star second baseman!
exactly yo
Simba is the one guy I wished the a Braves never traded. I’d take him over any short stop in baseball. If you’ve never watched him play everyday, you won’t understand. He and Andruw Jones are the best defenders I’ve ever seen.
Is fielding expected to decline in the same rate or fashion that offensive production tends to?
one thing on the negative side not really being considered here is that he’ll be 31 during the first year of his next contract. Don’t get me wrong I’m sure he can still keep up elite defense for at least a few more years — and even as he starts to lose a step or two he’s still so elite defensively that he’ll still remain one of the best beyond that. BUT having said all of that… he will most likely lose a step or two over the course of his next contract — so as good as he is… I do think that needs to be considered.
ozzie was above average in defense all the way to 39.
What about Vizquel? I don’t think Simmons is a Hall of Famer, but Vizquel couldn’t carry Simmons jock.
Simmons should absolutely be a hall of famer.
Thought this would be interesting but it’s actually just saber jargon. Nerds have ruined baseball. Thanks for zapping all the fun out of it dorks.
It it because Nerds like backing up their opinion with data? Sorry.
Gee Whiz, Simmons sure looks good in his uniform, so he’s a great player.
Is that better?
as an angel fan, I have no problem with Simba walking . fletcher is the future
at second loke
lots of good posts and a few duds. don’t you know Simmons is a stud?
really though…this guy is smmmmmmaaaaaarrrrrrrttttt! I haven’t seen anyone like this since ozzie. my partner bill was nothing in comparison. Garvey saved his bacon soooooooo many times
Carlos all day
simba has super high bball IQ. not many like him that don’t play behind the dish