We polled MLBTR’s readers last night about the biggest surprises on the first day of the 2020 MLB draft. Thus far, the Red Sox’ decision to choose Nick Yorke in the first round has drawn the most votes.
Before Yorke’s name was called, the Tigers had first crack at every single player available. The rebuilding ballclub went with Arizona State’s Spencer Torkelson, an advanced player with an unassailable offensive track record, effectively making him the heir apparent to legendary slugger Miguel Cabrera. The two could well overlap in the middle of the Detroit order for a few years, supposing Torkelson develops as hopes and Cabrera can rebound.
Easy enough, right? There weren’t any gasps of disbelief when Torkelson’s name was called. Then again … the Tigers did have other options.
Pundits have long debated whether Torkelson or Vanderbilt’s Austin Martin was a better selection at the top of the board. The latter has a much broader toolset and could potentially have fit into the long-term picture in Detroit in any number of ways. There’s a reason the Blue Jays were thrilled to see him somehow still available with the fifth overall selection. Perhaps the Tigers would’ve been wiser to roll with a player of this sort, particularly given the club’s complicated recent history with defensively limited slugger types. (While the Tigers have thrived with big bats, they’ve also whiffed on big money to Cabrera and Victor Martinez and ran into difficulty maximizing their control rights over J.D. Martinez and Nicholas Castellanos.)
As the Orioles showed us, that wasn’t the only alternative. The Baltimore organization decided to cut a deal with another highly valued prospect, Heston Kjerstad, in order to (presumably) allocate some of the bonus pool funds from their lofty draft pick to day-two selections. Given the limitations of this year’s draft, that strategy could open the door to some high-ceiling talent and spread the team’s draft resources over multiple players. As the debate over Torkelson and Martin shows, neither of the two was considered an especially compelling 1-1 candidate when viewed against those taken at the top in past years. The Tigers, like the O’s, certainly need a volume of players and could conceivably have taken this path as well.
There was at least one other possible approach for the Detroit brass to bat around: taking top collegiate hurler Asa Lacy of Texas A&M. The club reportedly dabbled with that idea ahead of time, due in part to the fact that they’ll now have to negotiate with agent Scott Boras over terms on Torkelson. (Boras also reps Martin.) Taking Lacy would’ve put another advanced arm into a system that’s already loaded with them. And that would’ve fit as part of a legitimate plan to pump arms into the system. There’s a reason we’ve all heard the phrases, “you can never have enough pitching” and “there is no such thing as a pitching prospect.” There’s risk and upside and need all at once. Had the Tigers ended up with an over-abundance of MLB-ready arms … well, they’d likely have little trouble finding innings and/or swapping some hurlers out for whatever bats they might need at the time. Lacy might not have been such an under-slot play as the O’s pulled, but perhaps there’d have been some leftover coin to work with in that scenario as well.
So … how do you view the Tigers’ decision? (Poll link for app users.)
[polldaddy poll=10565975]
Yes. He’s the best player in the class.
No brainer that it was the right choice. You don’t see players like Torkelson often in the draft
im a Martin guy, but as a GM i dont think you can get too cute with the #1 pick. not taking the consensus guy and then he becomes great is the best way to never get another GM job again.
lol over more concern for the gm’s job than making right move for the team
derp, he was saying why the GM would make the choice. SMH
If anyone is confident the Tigers made the right or wrong choice, they should work for a major league team. They are clearly smarter than everyone else here.
Time will tell and today, no one really knows.
right, guess this site might as well not do polls anymore because nothing in the future is set in stone. for all we know Mike Trout may never get into the Hall of Fame because a meteor could hit the Earth and destroy it before he retires.
They could take polls on lottery numbers.
Every baseball fan knows these picks are lottery numbers.
Did the Tigers make the right choice? Probably not. Seldom does the number one pick turn out to be the best player. I don’t see how anyone is confident that their team made the right pick.
It’s all about timing. This poll is addressing the timeline we have now; that is, for right now, with the players on the board as they were, was it the right PROSPECTIVE pick? OK, now fast forward to a year or two from now, maybe we do another poll, a RETROSPECTIVE poll, asking the same question; did the Tigers make the right pick? If at that point Tork is mashing, putting up Bellinger like stats, then yeah, pretty safe to say they made the right pick. If at that point he’s gone the way of the A.J. Reed’s of the world, then nope, they definitely didn’t make the right choice.
See the difference, and why it’s OK to have an opinion as of RIGHT NOW?
It’s all in fun. Professional sports are an entertainment business. Debate, hot takes, polls, and opinions fuel that. Don’t get the hard stance.
Are you Bill Smith former g m?
because every major league team makes the right move every time, without fail
There will be future stars emerging from the draft, many more busts, and a lot of good-but-not-great players. All that matters is that a high draft pick doesn’t get wasted. If it produces a star, then that was a great pick even if a lower pick ends up going to the HOF. Power and plate discipline suggest Torkelson has the making of a potential star, and that should be good enough.
The Astros Drafted Brady Aikin #1 and Mark Appel #1. They did OK. The Rays Tim Beckham and Delmon Young.
Plenty of teams have been able to survive bad #1 picks and still build.
now look, i know the leverage that draft picks have is limited, but why am I taking mid-1st round money after being drafted at #2 if im Kjerstad? If my pick is worth $x, im going to try to get as close to that as possible, and where said player was supposed to be drafted really shouldn’t fly if youve been selected at a pick with a terribly highet slot value.
He was picked at 2 so they could offer him less than slot money, was ranked 8th. O’s had deal in place when they picked him or they would have pick Martin..
The lunacy never stops. A player’s value is not determined by where they go in the draft. It’s the other way around. No player is going to magically demand more money just because they got drafted higher than expected. If anything it’s the other way around. If you get drafted higher than expected and then try to play hardball you are much more likely to end up like Karsten Whitson than you are to get what you want.
do you need to follow me around to correct me every time i say something you believe is wrong?
I mean in this case it probably wouldn’t hurt… seeing as he’s 100% correct… if he was there constantly he’d at least be stopping you from making a fool of yourself! — I’m just teasing and get your frustration — some people on here do seem like they’re just lying in wait to “correct” people BUT having said that… they’re not wrong here. Players are taken higher than they should in order for teams to sign them below slot value and spread their $ around all the time. So no Kjersted shouldn’t “hold out” or whatever you’re suggesting for more $ just because he went #2 — he was most likely only taken there BECAUSE of the ability to sign him for less $ and use the $ elsewhere… that’s a MAJOR reason he was chosen. And if might work out for him as well… as he may wind up getting a little bit more $ overall than if he’d been taken later in the draft… but he also won’t get full slot value because that was the whole reason he was taken higher in the draft than projected.
Deals are negotiated before the draft. Players have demands just like teams. Kjerstad and his camp determined Baltimore would be a good fit. Baltimore probably made an offer before the draft which Kjerstad clearly accepted. Similar cases happened with players making it known they won’t sign with a team in order to fall to a certain team. College seniors are typically easier to sign to below slot deals because they don’t really have a viable baseball alternative besides going overseas.
It works the other way too. High school players or college juniors can demand overslot deals because they could go back to school. Some are fine taking a little less because they don’t want to go back to school and prefer to start their professional careers.
Again, Kjerstad was not surprised when he was drafted. 99.99% chance he knew Baltimore was going to take him and had already assured he’d take a below slot deal otherwise they would’ve pivoted to another player who would’ve taken Baltimore’s offer.
One of the biggest problems with large Organizations is “Paralysis By Analysis.” Tigers were smart not to do that. The Orioles on the other hand, could spend years kicking themselves if Martin turns out to be a star, since they will be facing him in the Division playing for the Blue Jays.
Yeah, but they really won’t regret that much if Kjerstad turns out to be a star slugger for them.
Draft is first step. Develop player, second step. No good second step, then no good player career, even if draft first step was good.
As a Jays fan. I 100% agree the decision was the correct one allowing Martin to get away. I understand 3 other teams also needed to make this decision, however it started here. But no, Spencer was a pretty easy choice. He will most likely be fast tracked to help draw fans.
The Tigers have a need at 1B. Check. The Tigers are lacking power bats. Check. They need someone who can move quickly thru the system. Check. Wish he was lefthanded, but you can’t get everything.
York would have been the right pick at 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9…. he’s the best player right now, great upside, little risk. He’s one of the most mlb ready now and would have been the #1 pick last year if he was eligible.
Torkelson will be a major leaguer…maybe even an All Star. #1 picks rarely flame out unless injured.
The kid that I will be watching is Nick Gonzalez out of New Mexico State. That kid brings attitude. He has some Bryce Harper mixed with Justin Pedroia-ness to him. I consider him the most likely to get his uniform dirty 1st in every game he plays. I think he’s going to play big league baseball for a long time.
Is that Dustin’s little brother?
Think that was an autocorrect. Hate when that happens.
Yep…I’ve said all Gonzales will have much more impact (if for no other reason that he’s a second baseman) than the guys picked ahead of him. MVP in the Cape League; and nobody was even close. That says a lot. He’ll define the posistion for 5-7 years. And his game skills are off the charts.
Tigers? They did the right thing. We all know the scouts aren’t always right; but the truth is they’re right more than wrong. You can park Tork at 1B, leave him there for 10 years, and get a .270/35HR/90RBI kind of guy every year. Ya he’s defensively inept; so’s everybody else these days. But he’s a middle of the order bat, who influences lineups.
Martin? Ya, “nice” player; 3-4 All Star games there. Corner OF probably. The issue is that there’s a lot of those guys around.
Hey, it really is a DEEP draft, but there ain’t a Junior or A-Rod on top of it. Tork was a pretty safe and sound pick.
Lets go back to 2014. It’s hard to tell if a number one pick of the last six years has flamed out or not.
From 1995 to 2014 (20 years). I would say eight have flamed out. Eight out of 20 is not rare.
I would respectfully disagree. Only Brian Taylor, Appel and Aiken never played major league ball. Several didn’t have great careers, but mostly due to injuries.
We might have different definitions of flame out.
If my team drafted:
Matt Anderson
Brian Bullington
Delmon Young
Matt Bush or
Tim Beckham
I wouldn’t be happy. I wouldn’t be happy if they drafted a Kris Benson or Pat Burrell #1. At number one. I want more than a serviceable MLB player.
Good point. You want an impact player going #1 in the draft.
Delmon Young and Tim Beckham had decent careers. Take them off the flame out list, please.
I’m with ya.
“#1 picks rarely flame out unless injured.” right, sure…
As long as you follow the script that is the mock draft, you’ve made the right call… apparently.
It has nothing to do with following a mock, in this instance. Torkelson was the best player. That landed him first in mocks, and first in the draft. I’m not sure you’re even arguing the point. Detroit made a great call, though.
Martin will end up being a stud and if they had a season, he might have been their choice. Tigers got screwed and boxed in because with the missing season, only Spencer had the numbers to warrant the top pick. A RH 1b at Comerica Park is just the wrong type of player. If they passed on him, most parks will make his power an asset. At Comerica, long fly ball outs. They never learn…..
I think Martin will be a good ball player, but he’s not a generational type talent. The Tigers addressed a need in their system, adding some much needed thunder. They didn’t have a single player launch more than 20 long balls at the Big League level. Torkelson may not end up being generational, either. I like his talent over Martin. Even if you say both end up just being pretty good though, Torkelson is the better fit.
Yeah, Miggy just hit long fly ball outs on his way to a Triple Crown all those years ago!
Although, in all honesty, the deep power alleys at Comerica Park reward line-drive hitting up the gaps and speed, both on the basepaths and among outfielders. Those are cheaper attributes than power and the Tigers have been drafting those attributes under Avila (that and pitching, plenty of pitching).
And having Tork and Miggy playing together with Cabrera acting as a mentor is the best situation Torkelson could have asked for.
Top 5 Tigers of All Time;
5. Cecil Fielder
4. Tony
3. Alan Trammel
2. Mantacor
1. Ty Cobb
I’d have drafted Tork 1-1 so good choice.
I like black olives as a snack!
Torkelson was the right choice and that’s who I would’ve chosen if I ran the Tigers, but I guess it has something to do with the fact that I love power and he has a lot of it.
Spencer Torkelson was the best player available. It can’t get easier than that.
The pick gets an A
Avila is one of the most accomplished scouts in baseball. I trust him on the draft.
Who do Tigers take as the 1st pick of the second round?
I’m hoping they go with J.T Ginn, who had TJ surgery after only 3 innings this year at Miss. St. He can come back long and strong next year. Was a Dodgers 1st rounder in ’18 and turned down $2 million. Turned into 2019 SEC freshman of the year. Has been working with Roy Oswalt at MSU which is a +++ in my book. Now that his arm is fixed…watch out.
I’d also be happy with LSU OF Daniel Cabrera. You can’t have enough Cabreras on your team.
Hitting baseballs out of Comerica Park isn’t easy, so drafting a player that supposedly has ‘can’t miss power’ sounds about right for DET.
I definitely think the Tigers made the right choice here. regardless of position or even if his defense really is bad enough that he winds up better suited for DH than 1B — he still looks like an absolute special talent offensively. Like a generational type slugger. I mean just look at his collegiate numbers – he absolutely dominated at the college level… to a degree really very few (if any) have done in recent history. How could they pass up on a guy who’s shown MASSIVE power, incredible plate discipline and a great hit tool. He’s also probably advanced enough that he could potentially ascend quite rapidly through the minors and even make it to the majors in 2 years or less. (obviously no minor league season this year kind of throws a wrench into that somewhat) but still — he looks like a potentially dominant all around ML hitter. And given that he’s 21/22 and not an 18 year old high school kid — I would say his ‘floor’ is also pretty high… in that unless something bizarre happens and he really winds up being a flop… he should be a valuable ML hitter sooner rather than later for the Tigers. Definitely on board with the pick and really don’t even think there should’ve been any hesitation given his other-worldly stats in college. I mean (granted the season was cut short) but he got on base basically 60% of the time his senior year!!
Tigers got my boy, Daniel Cabrera with the compensatory pick at the end of round 2. Excellent get for that far down the draft.
The OSU catcher looks like he has potential.
Cruz, from Rice, a SS in the 3rd round looks a little iffy. College SS’s picked after the 1st round usually are reaches.
To use a football analogy, I think first basemen are like running backs, no need to draft them too high because they’re not impossible to find. So many guys later in their careers move to first and a lot of the premium first basemen in the league now were later picks. I’d always take college pitching number one.
I know #’s aren’t everything… especially college numbers. BUT having said that the massive gap between Torkleson’s amazing numbers and Martin’s great but not Torkleson level great numbers make me wonder why it was even close between the two. I understand defensive limitations surrounding Torkleson… but I feel like when drafting 19/20/21 year old kids you kind of have to look past position and future position when you have a guy who has the obvious offensive potential Torkleson has. I definitely think they made the right call… And if I were the Tiger’s GM it wouldn’t have even been close between the two.
Detroit and Miami have invested a lot of capital, through the draft and trades, in their young arms. Those future rotations could be scary. They can always go out and buy bats.
Detroit made the right choice. I wouldn’t have knocked them for picking Martin, but Tork was the obvious choice, just like Mize was a couple years back for Detroit. No need to get cute, go for the best player available. Sure, they’re all prospects and no one knows who will pan out and who won’t, but if it’s the best choice based on the information currently out there, take that best choice.
I LOVE this Tigers’ draft class. The farm system looks a whole lot better than it did two days ago.