The White Sox have agreed to a deal with second-round draft pick Jared Kelley, according to Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com. Kelley, an 18-year-old right-hander from Refugio High School in Texas, will receive a $3MM signing bonus, which comes in well above the $1.58MM slot value for the 47th overall pick.
Despite being chosen in the second round, Kelley by all accounts boasts the talent to warrant a first-round selection, with MLB Pipeline touting Kelley as the 12th-ranked prospect in this year’s draft class. That, along with a commitment to the University of Texas, means that Kelley commands a considerable signing bonus.
Kelley’s a big right-hander with a fastball to match, running the pitch up to 98 with an effortless delivery. The changeup is a surprisingly polished pitch for a high-schooler, and it’s easily his second-best offering. All that said, the biggest question in the way of Kelley’s path to becoming a top-flight Major League starter will be the development of his breaking ball, which is at best an average offering. Even if Kelley fails to develop and quality third pitch, the fastball-changeup combination will be enough to carry him to a high-leverage bullpen role. And while there’s value in that, such an outcome would still be considered a disappointment given Kelley’s high potential.
The Sox really gambled on their Draft and came up with a Full House. 2 possible starters great draft
They have had more luck developing pitchers than hitters, so here’s hoping. I like that they’re gambling; in reality, they’re betting on themselves as much as the players. Both of their first two picks have the size and build – the part you can’t teach – so the Sox are betting on their coaching staff to develop that raw ability. I like the confidence.
You can put it on the board………yeeeeeeeahhh!
He looks up.
There we go. They went all in on 2 guys, we’ll see how this strategy works out for them over the next 3 to 5 years.
Personally I think it’s a good gamble, since the Sox are weak in player development. They either have 0 or 1 success stories from each draft (yes, there are exceptions). Don’t get me wrong, they generally do well drafting, they don’t execute when it comes to developing players, generally speaking.
Might as well try for 2 potential stars and 3 scrubs. Maybe they’ll get 2 success stories from this draft, or at least have a much better chance of getting 1 success story. I’m curious to see if both guys make it to the 60-man roster (or if either).
Good point. Good players get you to .500. Great players get you to the World Series!
Joe Crede, Scott Podsenik, and AJ Pierzynski have entered the chat room.
lol
Leave Scotty Pods alone!
@louwhitaker
Out of those 3 you listed, only Crede was drafted by the Sox, and he was drafted in ’96 (a whopping 24 years ago). AJ signed as a F/A and Pods came via trade. Not exactly debunking my theory there, Sweet Lou.
I was at least expecting you to mention Chris Sale, which I would’ve countered with the fact that Sale lasted all of 2 months in the minors.
Unless you go all the way back to Thomas, Ventura, and Alex Fernandez in the early 90’s, or even the lucky pick of Buehrle (38th round in ’98), the best pick in the last 20 years after Sale is most likely TA in ’13. That could change with Vaughn and/or Madrigal, but that’s still a few years away from knowing for sure.
I think both Vaughn and Madrigal will be better than TA, provided they stay healthy. Madrigal has such a high floor with his speed and elite defense that even if his lack of power hurts his OBP, he should still eventually be an above-average player. Still waiting on Vaughn, but honestly, with TA’s terrible defense, lack of walks, and how, despite his speed, he’s only stolen 20 bases once in a year, that’s not a very high standard to beat.
I imagine he was not replying to you, but to the comment above him about Good players not getting you to the world series – thus, the list of good not great players that played major parts in getting the White Sox their first World Series in nearly a century.
What I’d say in response to your comment is that one success story per draft is pretty common – you can build a team off one success per year. It’s the zeros that are the bigger problems.
I feel like the sox have done better on the international market. But again, Jose Abreu is the one who stands out and he was major league ready. Robert is still very much TBD.
It should be noted that back in the day the Sox drafted Jack McDowell, Robin Ventura, Frank Thomas and Alex Fernandez in consecutive drafts (1987 to 1990)and all of them were top 10 picks. The White Sox wouldn’t have another top ten pick until Gordon Beckham in 2008. They also went heavy on pitchers over the last 20 years. Either way, the White Sox haven’t done the best job since the late 80’s early 90’s at developing position players but some of that has to do with draft position, philosophy and injury. It’s much easier to develop top 10 picks than bottom 10. But let’s not forget Mike Cameron or Ray Durham in the 90’s. Or Carlos Lee and Magglio Ordonez, a couple of successful international signings that came up through the minors.
My only concern is that they’ve gone all in on 5 guys over the last 2 drafts.
Getting even 2 success stories out of those drafts, which I would think would be most teams’ bar to be considered “decent” at drafting and developing talent, necessitates a 40% hit rate. Not easy.
I agree with your assessment. I’m not sure I like the strategy but I’m a Yankee fan so there’s that. I do think the selections have been interesting and certainly could pay off big, which I certainly am not hoping for.
@pplama
I agree. And with 3 of those 5 being 18-year-olds coming out of HS, that’s even more risk, especially for a team weak in player development.
It’s definitely not easy, but I think you have to also define success.
I’m fairly certain Vaughn will be an everyday player in the near future (barring injury). Does that count as a success? Or does he have to turn into an All-Star caliber player – one that actually deserves it based on performance instead of team popularity – for it to be a success?
What if one of the 4 pitchers turn into a good, but not great, bullpen piece for the next 10 years? What if they only become a solid #4 starter? Would either of those options count as successes? Or would they be failures because they didn’t turn into a frontline starter? Crochet is a lefty that touches 100 and spins a nasty breaking ball. Based on that alone, he’s likely to at least find a spot on a major league roster in the near future, barring injury.
I think an annual contribution over 3 fWAR per draft is more than reasonable, if not on the low side. (within reason, of course. Getting those WAR from 3 1.5 war swingmen and RH DH bench bat doesn’t work as it risks the stars and scrubs type roster they threw out there in their most recent attempts at contending)
Ideally you’d like one 6 fWAR stud, or a pair of 3 fWAR guys. But a 3 fWAR guy and a pair of 1..5 WAR ‘pen arms would cover it. IMO.
*weak in **position** player development
Honestly, you never know for sure who will be a scrub. Their last three picks weren’t inspiring, true, but plenty of All-Stars and even a few HOFers have been picked far later than the 5th round. Not by any means saying these last three picks will do even nearly that well, but they could potentially develop into useful, even above-average, pieces.
True, so true. And nothing’s easier in life than dreaming on potential. Reality is usually a LOT less fulfilling.
heck of a draft
Mane the best draft or Toronto. Who else won this draft?
Ahem
Maybe the best draft, or Toronto. Who else won this draft?
Detroit, just for Torkelson alone. Then they added Workman, who a couple scouts thought would go significantly higher. The Rays seem to have done well, given their draft position, but they scout as well as anybody and are great at developing pitchers.
Also the Royals draft was pretty good. AL central, ftw.
I believe that 90% of the fans out there are sure that THEIR team had the best draft. Anyway, here is what mlb thinks:
mlb.com/news/top-classes-in-the-2020-mlb-draft
(Spoiler alert, they disagree)
It depends on how you look at it. For the picks Cleveland had, they did well. As for whether they got the sixth best group of talent, I’d say probably not. A solid draft for sure, though.
I apologize for the “spoiler alert” comment. It was uncalled for.
No worries. We get a lot worse. I do think the Sox did well, but I wouldn’t say they won this draft, even as a huge Sox fan. These picks, particularly Crochet are huge gambles. It could come out that they won this draft, but if Crochet and Kelley bust, this will probably go down as a complete waste for them.
It’s the MLB draft. Just about every player picked after Tork is a huge gamble.
That’s the thing about drafts. Every team can declare theirs was “the best” and there is really no way to definitively argue or know. Time will enlighten us all.
True enough, but you can still look at certain tools and physical aspects. Crochet is a 6’6″ guy who can throw 99mph. That’s a heck of a start. If the Sox had instead taken someone in a Darin Erstad mold, we’d be right to question that choice. Time will tell for certain who won, as you said, but that doesn’t mean we can’t discuss and make predictions now.
Right. Whoever has the best player/most players turn out from this draft will win it. At this point it is very likely that Detroit won it because it seems that Torkelson is very likely to work out. If Crochet works out, shows he can make it as a starter and develops plus control he can be an absolute monster. Most likely he will have average control. But nobody has any idea how these guys will turn out until they do. I have seen far too many incredibly talented high draft picks made by my team fail to be excited yet.
The biggest problem with a all-or-nothing draft with two players is that MLB drafting is so much higher variance than any other sport. NBA, I’d say go for it – all in on one is perfect, because you know what you’re getting. MLB, especially when drafting pitching, you need the quantity to give you more shots at random luck.
The White Sox are clearly in the “win now” mode, hence grabbing a first rounder who could play this year and a second rounder who has a high enough ceiling that he could be potential trade fodder in a 2021 or 2022 trade for needed veterans. If things go well for the Sox in the next few years, I think Kelley won’t play for them. If he is playing for them, it’ll mean they failed in the rebuild and are in another one – or I suppose the rebuild went *so* well they didn’t need additional arms or bats, but I don’t see that happening.
Your scenario might be right, but the Sox could still use Kelley if the rebuild is successful. Rodon is not a long-term piece because he can’t stay healthy. Giolito looks likely to lock in the #1 slot and Kopech will very likely take the #2, but jury is still out on Cease, Dunning, Lopez, and Stiever. If two of them work out, great, but that still leaves a fifth spot in the rotation. In this scenario, they’d have four solid pitchers and could have an excellent lineup with few holes, but still need a fifth starter. They could also make a closer out of him if he can’t develop a 3rd pitch.
Hasn’t the White Sox been rebuilding for the last decade and half?
No. I think it started when Hahn replaced KW
15 years ago the White Sox won the World Series. The following year they won 90 games. You might be thinking of the Padres or Pirates.
@Shannon Wolfe
You were close. Nov 2016.
You were only a decade and a year off.
Steal of the draft. You hear ‘em coming!
The reward is much higher than the risk, and they may be setting themselves up nicely w this 2nd round strategy…. Potential future contributors and immediate trade assets
Yep!
I got faith that all 5 guys will pan out for the Sox. Can’t have enough arms to work with.
That’s completely unreasonable. If 3 make any sort of real contribution at the MLB level, it’s a win. If one becomes a star, it’s good enough. All 5? Doesn’t happen, even for teams with excellent scouting and development, like the Braves and Rays.
Your answer reminds of The Simpson episode “Homer at the Bat” when Mr. Burns laughs at the possibility of losing his All -Star softball team, which does occurs. When Mr. Burns’ sodtball team plays the championship game, Darrly Strawberry is the only superstar left. Great episode!
It’s called having faith. Damn!
Besides screw the Braves and Rays. The White Sox have as many titles as both of them combined even without their “excellent scouting and development.”
There is at least a sound business-like plan loading up on high end amateur pitching in these last couple drafts based on a premise that they feel good about their lineup next 5yrs or so with what is in-house….whether the arms are future solutions or very appealing trade bait to get legit pitchers for postseason runs soon. Nothing is foolproof, but they can always go back to spreading out the $ allocations in future drafts. It’s on player development staff right now to start turning under-the-radar guys like Flores and others into solid enough major leaguers so there is no added holes beyond targeting TOR starters in trade when time is right. Kelley looks like a natural bulldog among the bunch. Big fan of the boldness FO took.
@83sox94win05 i’m not gonna disagee with much you said. I know the White Sox are not known for their player development. But the White Sox have developed some okay players over time that had pretty darn good careers. You mentioned some guys like Frank Thomas, Chris Sale, Mark Buerlue, Tim Anderson and Joe Crede. But Some guys you didnt mention * Aaron Rowand * Carlos Lee *Adam Eaton *Magglio Ordonez *Jose Quintana. I think alot is about change because the Whitesox have drafted really well the last few years. They have had alot of Success with turning pitchers careers around and they have developed alot of nice pitchers in the past. Aaron Bummer is one of the best relievers in baseball. Madrigal, Vaughn, and Robert are all going to be homegown talent for the White Sox and look like future All stars. Zack Collins could also be a very good player. His Stats from AAA last year were Very good and gets over looked alot. I’m sure some of these pitchers they drafted the last 3 years are going to be studs.
@Chi Town Hype
I am very excited about the future myself. I’m not too worried how they do this year in the W-L column as much as I am with getting guys like Robert, Madrigal, Kopech, Cease, Dunning, etc. needed experience for when they take it to the next level.
And as much of a risk it was punting the rest of the draft after Kelley, the strategy has a better chance this year with Kelley showing potential of a stud whereas Thompson and Dalquist were good picks but not to the level Kelley looks to be. Granted it’s all potential and you never know how HS kids will develop, but at least the skills look very appealing right now.
I’m curious to how many of the 5 (Vaughn, Crochet, Kelley, Thompson, and Dalquist) make it to the 60-man roster. Ideally I’d like all 5 to better continue their development, but I’m not sure how feasible that is, especially with guys like Madrigal and Dunning (to name a couple) who aren’t on the current 40-man the Sox will definitely want on the 60-man. I guess we’ll find out later today.