The upcoming offseason’s free-agent pitching market is not flush with ace-caliber talent. There’s Trevor Bauer, who should sign the richest deal in free agency (at least on an annual basis), and then a slew of hurlers with their share of warts. For those who can’t afford Bauer or the many bidders who lose out on him, there will be a shortage of high-caliber talent. Kevin Gausman and Marcus Stroman are likely the two best pending free-agent starters beyond Bauer, which doesn’t seem all that encouraging.
While both Gausman and Stroman have logged at least OK numbers for most of their careers, neither has been a top-level starter. For instance, the soon-to-be 30-year-old Gausman is only a year removed from the Braves placing him on waivers, but he was a capable starter with the Orioles before then and a good reliever with the Reds after that.
Gausman settled for a one-year, $9MM contract with the Giants last offseason, though that proved to be a great investment for the club. He wound up making 10 starts in 12 appearances as a Giant and pitching to a 3.62 ERA/3.09 FIP with 11.92 K/9 and 2.41 BB/9 across 59 2/3 innings. Among 81 pitchers who accumulated 50-plus frames, Gausman finished seventh in swinging-strike rate, 14th in K/BB ratio and 15th in FIP. There’s a lot to like about that combination, especially for someone who averages around 95 mph on his fastball.
Stroman, who will also turn 30 before next season, is the more accomplished hurler than Gausman. The former Blue Jay and current Met has recorded a 3.76 ERA/3.64 FIP through 146 games (140 starts) and 849 1/3 frames since he debuted in 2014. Stroman continued that sort of production last year between the teams, and though he doesn’t throw as hard as Gausman, he has overcome a relative lack of velocity with a high amount of grounders and a low number of walks. The problem for Stroman as he nears free agency is that he didn’t pitch at all in 2020 because of coronavirus-related concerns. You can’t blame Stroman for exercising caution, but it remains to be seen whether taking the season off will affect him on the market.
Now, considering the lack of quality starters going into the offseason, Gausman and/or Stroman could be in line for qualifying offers and fairly expensive multiyear pacts. Which player do you think should earn more? (Poll link for app users) [polldaddy poll=10624034]
Tough one as I’m not particularly high on either. Gonna go with C) Taijuan Walker.
Connor, do you see the Jays hanging onto Taijuan?
I think Walker is in line for a multi year contract, especially only at 28. Gausman and Stroman seem more like one year deals, probably why they’re put next to each other.
If Stroman is accepting a one-year deal, he may as well sign a lease in Buckhead.
He didn’t pitch in 2020. I’d be shocked if he gets a multi year deal.
I wouldn’t. Pitching has been at a premium for years now and he’s one of the best non-Bauer options this year. I’ll agree that I don’t see a long-term deal for him, but to land a pitcher of his caliber, I can see teams willing to give him two years with a vesting option for a third.
I think Stroman gets a multi year deal. He’s got the rep and to a lesser extent, the creds, and he opted out cuz ‘20 is crazy. I don’t think him missing this odd season hurts him at all.
Walker is the most animated pitcher I’ve ever seen on the mound between pitches. I watched him dominate my Cubs and wasn’t even mad about it, just enjoyed watching him pitch
I definitely see Stroman getting a multi year deal. To few pitching options and I question how much opting out will be held against him. It might have even been an intelligent decision. How many pitchers did we see get blown up and lose value this year?
two guys with up and down track records. id pass on both.
I don’t disagree with that, but it really depends. If I’m a team like the Nationals or White Sox just trying to round out a rotation, I wouldn’t mind. But if you sign on expecting them to be your regular #2, it’s not going to end well.
Ala the Tigers with the now free-agent (finally!) Jordan Zimmermann.
As a White Sox fan, I’d take Stroman, pass on Gausman. Stroman’s career numbers are better in a lot of categories, he’s younger, and he’s thrown over 190 innings in a season. He’s also never had an FIP over 4.00 in a season. I won’t argue that either would have been an upgrade over Dylan Cease or the Rodon/Lopez mess this year, but next year, Kopech will be back, Dunning is already promising, and Cease will hopefully figure stuff out, so a new pitcher relegates one of those guys to the bullpen or minors. Stroman is worth it to me, Gausman isn’t.
they are like the same age dude
Getting out of Baltimore, Gausman can either be like Jake Arrieta for a few years or, more likely, be like Eovaldi.
I would take Stroman despite sitting out for a year for the following reason, Toronto and the AL East in general is a very difficult park/division to pitch in. The AL East is rotten with hitter friendly ballparks and very good offensive teams.
Gausman on the other hand I simply do not believe can carry over his success across 32 starts. To me, I would view him more as a swing man than a starter. He also only averaged 5 innings of work last season…. you really do not want a starter you constantly have to pull after 5 innings.
As a Cubs fan, understanding out payroll limitations, I want Stroman. For the Sox, it would be Bauer or bust!
you believe that Stroman is the better choice and is better than his numbers because he played most of his career in AL East… that’s your primary reason even when you are aware Gausman spent much of his career in Baltimore.
I never said Stroman was better than his numbers suggest. I said I would take him over Gausman and being that he (Stroman) was actually successful pitching in the AL East where Gausman was terrible pitching in the AL East…. then he was terrible pitching half a season in Atlanta which is a pitchers park.
Also, Gausman’s advanced stats suggest he is due for a major regression, he gives up hard contact, barreled balls and exit velocity all above league average. He also saw nearly a 10% uptick in K rate which, being a two pitch pitcher, does not seem sustainable.
I was pretty annoyed when I heard the Giants gave Gausman 10 million bucks last year but it actually turned out to be good signing. I wouldn’t have an issue if they tried to resign him at something like 3/40.
Stroman is far better lol.
Stroman to the Yankees
Yankees!!! Crap
Steve Cohen will pay him and keep him at Citi Field.
Yanno I agree with you but assuming, in a vacuum, they get the same exact contract, I think I would rather have the pitcher that played this year. Stroman not pitching since 2019 kinda worries me.
No problem with guys like Stroman and Price sitting out 2020. With the dearth of starting pitching around MLB, those guys will be seen as having value this winter. I’d be 100% okay with the Dodgers bringing Price back, but fully expect Friedman to find a taker. If the Dodgers kick in $4 million per year, Price at two years/$24 million will be considered a bargain compared to giving an extra year or two to Stroman. Dodgers get a prospect in return but not an elite one. Just someone Friedman likes. Just wait. This will happen. Price would help someone like the Angels or Phillies. Maybe the Phillies finally get a lefty starter after four years without one.
Cey Hey wouldn’t they give Price a chance first.
Maybe. Depends on the market and the demand for starting pitching. I agree that Price is good insurance because every team has pitching injuries. And for what it’s worth, I have liked the guy since he debuted in Tampa Bay.
Dies Price have no trade protection? Job Pederson will be a free agent and the Twins have the perfect replacement in Eddie Rosario. Dodgers and Twins recently made a mutually beneficial deal with Maeda for Graterol. Rosario + $/Rosario + prospect(s) for Price?
Don’t forget Stroman is a headcase and has proven to not handle NY well at all. He shouldn’t play next season since he has concerns about Coronavirus because if he did Steve Cohen should sue him or MlBPA since he circumvented his contract.
Headcase. Brought to you by the same “fans” who enjoy using the word “choke.” Also brought to you by people who apparently think COVID-19 is no big deal. Counting down the days…ya know what I’m saying?
Stroman IS a headcase. Bauer is too. Hoping my Halos avoid both. But I have a feeling one of them will be wearing red. And no, the Halos should not take Price off the “Doyers” hands. That is an absolutely ridiculous proposition.
True.
Lol. I came here looking specifically for this comment that I knew you’d leave.
Stroman has playoff and USA experience and his stuff is still there. Gausman is a number 5 starter on a good team.
I would take Gausman over Stroman over the fact he did the Mets dirty. He could have easily have told the mets his plan to opt out in advance and they could have had looked into some more depth for the rotation. Instead he decided play the system and thats fine and dandy but i see him doing it again and end up being another Carl Pavano with the Yankees. Get his big payday and then has mystery illnesses and injuries such as the infamous butt bruise. i guess the yankees do need someone to replace the ellsbury contract. 26 games over 4 years and 40 mil paid out for Pavano before the payroll explosions.
“he decided to play the system” like the owners do all the time.
Stroman did nothing wrong. As gbs42 alluded to, owners do dirty by the players all the time. Heck, many bosses do that to their employees. More power to an employee who made the system work for him. If only we all could do that.
We all could do that, but most of us have integrity.
I agree except for the part about the owners “doing dirty”. Nothing wrong with either side exerting the rights given to them contractually in order to get the best result for themselves. No ones doing anyone “dirty” by looking out for themselves.
I’d like to see the Jays keep Walker. Nice to see Stroman come back to the Jays too.
Didn’t Stroman burn some clubhouse bridges when leaving? Maybe I’m wrong but I thought there was some animosity. Re Walker: when the winter is done, he will probably have a nice deal in hand. His market will surge, in my opinion. With the expanded playoffs, teams might be more inclined to spend on starting pitching. They always have anyway.
I doubt he did the way Yoenis did. Yo’s a shell of what he was, but clearing out of your hotel room and not letting anyone on the team know where you were for hours until your agent informs the team you opted out is about as dirty as you can get. Stroman was already on IL.
I’m sure, but he pitched pretty well this year. I bet he gets a lot of interest, especially from teams that decide Bauer is too rich for their blood.
Twins should go after him” Stroman has playoffs experience and its affordable
Big long term contracts are ridiculous….. stay far away….
Stroman is probably the better pitcher, but I would choose Gausman 10 out of 10 times. Stroman’s attitude would just be a cancer in the clubhouse and I don’t think him getting a long term big money contract would make it any better. Gausman still has upside and he showed that if you put him in a pitcher’s park like San Fran, he will pitch like the ace he was drafted to be.
Needing to be in a pitcher’s park to pitch like an ace is a pretty big caveat. It’s like saying, “This guy will hit .300/.400/.600 with 40HR…if he gets to play half his games in Coors Field.” It may be true, but it still takes away from how good he actually is.
If you actually follow Rockies hitters instead of just going with the false trope that Coors Field will turn any scrub into a great hitter you would know that very few hitters have come close to that in Coors.
In fact, the Rockies have never had anyone hit 50 homers. And since the humidor was installed in 2002, only two batters have even hit 40. Nolan Arenado 3 times and Carlos Gonzalez 1 time. In the past 10 seasons only twice has a Rockies hitter slugged over .600, Troy Tulowitzki in 2014 and Charlie Blackmon in 2017. In the past 10 seasons only twice has a Rockies hitter had an OBP over .400, Troy Tulowitzki in 2014 and DJ LeMahieu in 2016.
There is no park in the big leagues that has not had similar success in the past decade. So can we please stop with the tired belief that Coors Field is some kind of magical Narnia for hitters. It is extremely disrespectful to Rockies hitters.
I would rather sign Stroman to a one year deal, as I think he is the better pitcher, but I’d rather sign Gausman to a long term contract because I’m a little worried about Stroman sitting out this year.
Gausman would seem to fit the Bill for the Pirates type of project…. hence AJ Burnett and others
I think that would have been the case prior to this season, but I think he reclaimed himself enough that he will be out of the Pirates price range. It won’t likely happen, but I think Gausman would be a great fit with the young Marlins as their ace.
I don’t really like Stroman for the long term because of his body type: 5′-8″, and 180 lbs. Stroman isn’t throwing his FB as much as before, only 39.4% last year as opposed to 62.1% in 2017. He’s been relying more on his cutter and curve, which might account for his subpar, for him at least, performance in 2019. He averaged 93.1 on his FB in 2019.
Gausman threw with better velocity in 2020, 95.4, than he had since 2016, and that was only by 0.4 mph less. He also threw his FB less, but still threw it more than half the time, 51.1%. But the reason for that was his increased use of his changeup, which was a big reason for his successful 2020 campaign.
Maybe Stroman has been better over his career, but Gausman has been better lately. Stroman had a 109 ERA+ in 2019, while Gausman posted a 118 ERA+ in 2020. A superficial look will tell you Stroman is better, but my vote is for Gausman.
Ok scout.
1/3 of a season’s stats in 2020 isn’t enough to change my mind. Stroman is better.
Good points. I think many teams will agree with you. A team like the Braves or the Padres who have strong farm systems will not mind giving up a draft pick to sign a guy like Gausman. But the financial situation of all teams will play a big part in what this guy is offered. I think he’s better off taking the QO and betting on himself to get a larger contract after the 2021 season.
I don’t want an expensive Gausman because of what he did in a short season, but would he take a Rangers 3 year 30 million dollar deal™?
I was thinking the rangers might go for one of them too
Rangers, Why did you trademark your comment?
Because I feel like the Rangers should get that deal trade-marked with how often they’ve used it over the past 3 seasons lol.
Haha it all makes sense now
Gausman recently said that the reason he signed in SF was to pitch to Buster Posey, and since he did not get that opportunity in 2020, he prefers to resign with the team for 2021. (Could be agent talk but still…) Personally, I think Giants give him the QO (or a contract close to its value) and he accepts it. I think Stroman is a much better bet for a contending team but what Gausman showed in SF this year is that he’s got incredible stuff, I’m personally sold that he’s a different pitcher now than when in ATL.
There is no way Gausman gets a QO, or anything close to it.
He signed a 1/10 last year with terrible numbers. He had the best span of his career in 2020, pretty sure he can achieve a 1/18.
I dunno. A half season of very good, but not ace performance? I be surprised if he got 18 mil.
I don’t know if he will get the QO but wouldn’t be surprised if the giants offer a 2/25-28 with incentives
The Angels will sign both for $13M one year deals and then my dog’s water bowl will provide more WAR. Oh wait, that might have been Harvey and Cahill. I’m having flashbacks.
Angles rotation would be pretty solid if you add these two. Obviously not amazing but a lot to work with. Don’t roll your eyes at your own suggestion. It’s not terrible …. but I definitely see where your coming from
Classic. “My dogs water bowl.” About sums it up the past few years for the Halos pitching staff.
Neither one is signing a one-year deal. With the dearth of SPs on the market for 2021 any team will be lucky to get one of them on a three-year deal. The players here have all the power, and I guarantee more than one team will go at least three years to sign either one.
I’m sure there are people that will say they’re not worth a multi-year deal, but any team not willing to do that will be searching for pitchers on the waiver wire. Yeah, neither one is an ace, or even a 2, but both are better than what most teams have at 3 through 5.
Could you imagine picking Gausman over Stroman? Smh
I would have chosen Gausman over Stroman last season for sure.
I do not understand the confidence in Stroman.
In 2019 Stroman had 32 starts with a 3.22ERA. Strikeouts are fascist. Throw more ground balls, they’re more democratic:)
Curiously to see what the Braves do in this market with SP. This season clearly showed we desperately needed help in that position, but the recent surge in excellent young pitching has me wondering if we need to do much anymore. Soroka should be back, Fried Anderson Wright… heck if Wilson can lock down the 5th spot that’s a solid rotation. Maybe Braves get a tad aggressive and go get a Stroman. Or maybe they go all out and get a Bauer although I doubt the Braves would do that even if we needed him more than life itself. I don’t really like him as a fan, but the kid can pitch.
My guess Stroman gets 3 year 30. Or 2 with an option
I don’t see Stroman going to Yankees. I don’t think his personality would fit in with the yankees
Hope some team signs FA Jake Arrieta so my Phillies aren’t tempted into a reunion. Phils gave him three years and about $75 million. No wonder Klentak got bumped down the food chain.
For the Phillies, I’d like them to trade for David Price. BoSox are paying half his salary. Maybe the Dodgers chip in, say, $5 million to get rid of him? At $10 million for one year, Price would fit in nicely behind Nola and Wheeler.
Also, and admittedly, sentiment rules my thought here, but a reunion with Cole Hamels as our #5 starter wouldn’t be bad in case Spencer Howard needs to spend the first couple of months in Triple-A.
I would do that trade but it depends on what the dodgers would want.
Dodgers probably wouldn’t need much for Price. They had to take him to facilitate acquiring Mookie Betts.
Key for the Phillies, or any other team looking to get Price, is how much money we can get the Dodgers to eat from his $16 million salary.
For me, it depends on what value we’re looking at. If we are looking at their whole career, Stroman. If we are looking at most recent stats, gausman. I think Stroman is more of an unpredictable pitcher, which will lower his value.
Agreed. Both will be 30 next year. Gausman had a great partial year (10 starts) during a contract year. In relief with the Reds in 2019 his numbers were excellent and his Braves 2018 numbers in 10 starts were stellar. Mixed in to the 2019 season were 16 miserable starts for the Braves and in 2018 he made 21 not-so-good starts for the Orioles (Tough division and it is the 2018 Orioles). Anyhow, his last 3 years have seen some big ups and some tiny lows.
Stroman has been more consistently mediocre to slightly above mediocre throughout his career. He has more shine and has generally had higher expectations during his career. Being a Cubs fan, I would sign them both to 2/25 deals. And then watch them spend a lot of time on the IL, a la Chatwood and Morrow.
Stroman spends way too much time showing off on instagram
Neither? Both are stiffs
Paxton and Tanaka are both clearly superior to these guys. They are the best free agent pitchers after Bauer.
I’d agree on Tanaka, but not Paxton. Paxton is terrible, and he’s lost a lot of velocity on his FB.
Bauer is obviously #1 then Stroman being a local product who has the personality to deal with all the NY BS
I always been high on Stroman so I’m not sure..
It all comes down to money and years ?
Reds will loose Bauer and the look to overpay for one of these guys like they did w moose.
Gausman pitched well for Cincinnati in the short time he was there. I could see that being a good signing.
I’m taking the SP with much better swing and miss stuff. It’s Gausman for me.
I think that would depend on where you play and how deep your bullpen is.
Gausman gets exposed the third time through the line up because he is basically a two pitch pitcher. He has a 95 MPH fastball and a change up/split finger. His K rate was about 10 points higher than his career average and I simply do not know if that is sustainable for him.
Well another way of looking a it
Gausman honored his contract
Stroman being the jerk that he is, did not honor his contract
SMH
Stroman too busy posting on Instagram how awesome he is. How much money he has.
Giants surprised everyone with a top ten offense this year, and plenty of talent coming throught the pipeline in late 2021/2022. Time to offer Gausman a qualifying offer and sign to a 3/38 deal, then secure Bauer with a 5/161 deal. Would catapult them ahead of the Padres in the division. Cheap offense and expiring contracts can nake this possible
Bauer and Stroman will sign with the Mets.
Remember Stroman is all about Stroman. He is slowly turning go into a 1 turn of the batting order pitcher. I have always thought he would make a good closer. Every second game as a starter he like to have a blowup inning where he emotionally loses it and it shows on the score as. Avoid Stroman at all costs unless it is a 1 year 7 mill or less deal. Not a good clubhouse guy either.
To choose between gausman or stroman, id take bartolo
Both these guys get the QO and both take it. I don’t see other teams giving either of these guys a multi year contact when they’d have to give up a draft pick.
I could see Gausman taking a longer contract with the Giants after accepting the QO; I would love that as his fastball/changeup combo were pretty filthy. His command of the changeup is a new development and because he throws 95+ as a starter the change is devastating.