Earlier today we took a brief look at the A’s rotation picture heading into 2021, but whereas the A’s have more rotation continuity than most years, it’s a starkly different picture on the other side of the bay. Most of the Giants’ 2020 rotation is heading to the open market, including Kevin Gausman Drew Smyly, Jeff Samardzija, and Trevor Cahill, writes John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle.
Of course, they got very little from Samardzija in 2020 (4 starts, 9.72 ERA), while Smyly (5 starts, 26 1/3 innings, 3.42 ERA) and Cahill (6 starts, 25 innings, 3.24 ERA) were moderate contributors. Gausman would be the biggest loss of the group, going 3-3 with a 3.62 ERA/3.09 FIP across 59 2/3 innings. The 30-year-old has provided somewhat spotty production throughout his career, making his free agency case difficult to project.
The Giants aren’t bereft of in-house options to fill out the rotation, however. Johnny Cueto remains under contract for $22MM in 2021 with a $22MM club option with $5MM buyout for 2022. The 34-year-old maintained his rotation spot in 2020, though he only provided middling production with a 5.40 ERA/4.64 FIP across 63 1/3 innings.
Beyond the veteran, the Giants have Tyler Beede returning from Tommy John surgery, as well as Logan Webb, Tyler Anderson, Andrew Suarez, and Anthony Banda who could get a look somewhere on the rotation depth chart. Prospects Seth Corry and Sean Hjelle, Shea notes, are still probably at least a year from providing quality innings at the big leagues.
The challenge for President of Baseball Ops Farhan Zaidi will be identifying those front of the rotation arms that can help the Giants contend with the Dodgers and Padres in the NL West. Anderson will be 31-years-old next year, Beede is coming off Tommy John, and Webb has largely disappointed thus far with a 5.36 ERA/4.15 FIP in 94 innings across two seasons. Depending on the timeline for their pitching prospects, the Giants could at least explore adding through the free agent market.
They realistically need two of the Bauer, Gausman, Stroman, Tanaka camp; as well as a flyer on a third Smyly, Ray, Walker, Minor, Odorizzi, Paxton level pitcher. That’s not counting probably needing to bring in at least two relievers to replace Cahill and Watson. Giants need a lot of arms if they’re serious about contending next year. Will be curious to see what Farhan cooks up.
Good thoughts, Andy. I think they’ll resign Gausman and and Smyly and backfill the rest of the rotation with in-house guys (Cueto, Beede and Webb), and that FZ will look to find a guy or two looking for a rebound year. If that sounds like a cut and paste of this year, it is. And I think it’s what they’ll do. I haven’t gotten any real indication that the Giants intend to open the wallet for 2021. I think it will be a transitory bridge to 2022 when a lot more talent is expected to come up.
But I think Gausman, even in a pandemic market, may be priced out of the their comfort zone. I can see him easily getting 3-4 years @ 15-20 mil per.
@remember: Nah, I don’t think he does that well on the market. He doesn’t have a long enough track record of health to warrant it. He might even take a QO if the Giants decide to issue one. SF seemed to be a good fit for him, and I think he liked it there; I think he takes a 2-3 year deal if they offer him a competitive one.
Right, so what’s a competitive rate then? if its If 15 mil then we are on the same page.
I was thinking a bit lower than you were, more like $10-15 mil
If a veteran guy who was worth 1 year $9M is suddenly getting $50M contract offers because of 60 good innings… well, the signing team is likely to regret it. He’s the kind of guy who’s pretty useful every other year, not a guy you can write in as a sure thing.
Gausman accepts the QO in less than a second if it is extended
I know the QO is so high now, but if a ballplayer has hit his 30s with a few blemishes on his track record and still believes he may be able to commandeer a 3-year deal, he might decide to opt for the longer and more sizable payout.
Problem with Smiley is he gets hurt every year and had never thrown over 175 IP. I’d pass on him but I like the idea of going after Odorizzi or even Tanaka. I also think the Giants ballpark is very well suited for Gausman and I bet he would have his best career numbers there, but again my crystal ball is in the shop
Smyly was a swingman most years and a pure reliever one year. Not all of his lack of innings is injury.
Team don’t sign that many free agents in 1 offseason unless you are the 2011 Marlins.
That many bodies isn’t unusual, if they’re not all high end. The Blue Jays signed an entire new starting rotation last winter: Ryu, Roark, Anderson, Shoemaker, Yamaguchi (okay Anderson was a financially-motivated trade that acted like a signing, but the rest were signed, or in Shoe’s case re-signed).
Yeah…time to pack it in and start over. Bout 2 years behind w all that
Giants are fine. Top 10 offense. Top 10 minor league system. Over .500 since May of 2019. They need to address their rotation, but they’re a legitimately competitive team.
Exactly.
It might take another year of building internally before they’ve got the right roster to start adding expensive veteran talent
Z’s doing exactly what he did in LA, the Giants/Dodgers rivalry is gonna be a whole lot of fun again in a couple years
ABStract. Really fun. Re the Giants roster, I mentioned in another thread that I think they should sign Carlos Correa next winter. Unlike many Dodger fans, I love him as a player. Clutch hitter, excellent glove, a take-charge guy in the infield. He’s like Corey Seager in that both missed significant time with injuries but are seemingly healthy now. As fans, I feel we need to put the Astros scandal behind us and deal with now.
For this winter, I would consider Kiké Hernandez for 2B. Not a robust hitter, but he hits some homers, has had some big October moments, and provides elite defense. He and Correa would certainly intensify the rivalry. I like the idea of bringing in veterans who come from a winning environment. If Bart proves to be the answer behind the plate, then up-the-middle defense would suddenly be a Giants strength (which makes the pitching better).
Good thoughts, but don’t forget about Solano!
He’s done nothing but hit since coming to SF and has near .990 lifetime def at 2nd…and with Dubon and more I think 2nd base is covered
Wouldn’t mind Correa for SS though, how’s his def compared to Craw?
Does Solano remain at 2B or become something of a rover? No question the bat belongs in the lineup. A DP combo of Hernandez-Correa would be fantastic. The Giants are not that far away. As for 2021, I’m sure Farhan’s goal is to compete regularly for championships rather than try to catch lightning in a bottle. Considering the current three GM vacancies (four if the Mets let BVW go) and some other front-office dilemmas, the Giants are in a good place. Recent history of winning, fabulous ballpark, supportive fan base, and a plan. For all the ink Hazan has gotten, I like the Giants personnel quite a bit better than the Dbacks. The Rockies still need to establish a direction. It’s gonna be the three California teams knocking heads.
I’d like to see them add LaStella or Profar to the mix. I think the team was in need of another left handed infielder. I like the idea of Longoria sitting against elite righties, and LaStella or Profar relieving Solano/Flores as necessary.
They won’t sign Correa unless he’s going to take a 1 or 2 year deal, BCraw has another year left and the hope is Luciano will be ready after that, he’s young so they may need to find a bridge player for one more year after BCraw’s contract, but Luciano is the future, no need to sign Correa
@AndyWarpath they literally have no starting pitchers
They also have basically nothing obligated to their 2021 payroll and beyond. They could dictate the pitching market this offseason if they wanted to.
Those arent going to be costing “flyer” money
There are 30 teams and you want Giants to sign 3 of the top 10 free agent arms in a bad free agent class this year?
not saying they will, but they basically have five back of the rotation type starters right now. I’m sure Farhan will get creative with some trades as well.
AndyWarpath, They aren’t ready to win yet. Let’s not forget that the top-ten offense you mentioned elsewhere came during a truncated season and might not be sustainable over a full(er) campaign. Also, they missed the post-season despite the expanded playoffs. With some form of expanded playoffs likely to stay, they can compete for a spot. But mainly, 2021 should be viewed as a transitional year where they can assess what they have and gear up for 2022. Overspending on free-agent pitchers is probably not the way to go. I would stay clear of the first four you mentioned. Stroman in particular is a disaster waiting to happen. Check his year-by-year numbers with Toronto. Are you willing to shell out long-term money for that?
Be cost-efficient this winter with an eye beyond the 2021 season. For a flier, I might consider Julio Teheran. He was horrible over 35 innings for the Angels this year, but this might be due to falling behind after testing positive for COVID. In his previous seven seasons with the Braves, he never pitched fewer than 174.2 innings and made at least 30 starts in each of them. Teheran turns 30 in January, which makes him a decent candidate for a rebound. Not great by any means, but he can take the pressure off the bullpen and younger pitchers by providing innings. His contract for 2020 was $9 million, so he can probably be had cheap as he looks to restore his value. And if he pitches well, he can possibly be dealt at the deadline if the Giants are out of contention.
Yes! Totally agree
I’ve always thought Teheran would do well in SF
They’ve just gotta keep building the right way and being smart
In Z we trust
“Giants need a lot of arms if they’re serious about contending next year.”
uh, no…
Samardzija should sign a pillow contract w Pittsburgh. Tax difference alone would be a couple million
Honestly, he looked so bad last year that he might have to take a non-roster invite at this point in his career. Some have also speculated that he might be better suited to relief duties from here on out.
I always thought he’d make an interesting closer candidate with his aggressiveness and moxie. He could go all out for an inning at a time, so his FB could get a couple of ticks better.
Non roster invite? Are you aware of how bad the Sp market is currently???
Banda should get an extended shot somewhere
Other than that, things are looking pretty good.
I understand that the baseball Giants are trending up.
But…man, those starters don’t leave much margin for error.
No they do not
That’s why they’re still a year away (unless they get really lucky)
SF Giants Wish List:
Bradley Jr + LaStella + Gausman + Smyly + Stroman + Hendriks + Cahill
No problem right?!!!
@andy. You’re right: “no problem.” I’m in! Go get those guys!!
I’m not sure about Stroman or JBJ
Don’t need JBJ if they keep yaz and have Heliot Ramos almost ready unless jbj is fine with being a platoon player, they need to get a power bat for the other corner outfield spot
The Giants won’t be swimming in the Trevor Bauer/Marcus Stroman pool.
I’d imagine they try to re-sign Gausman, attempt to trade Cueto, and then try and fill the rotation with low-risk guys via trades and waiver claims.
I expect Zaidi to take some chances on other teams’ castaways and out-of-option pitchers. Think guys like Trevor Richards or Paul Blackburn, maybe even guys like Reynaldo Lopez.
But they shouldn’t be trying to get a front-of-the-rotation starter just yet.
With so many posters focusing on starting pitching, what about the Giants offense and bullpen? Neither one is particularly inspiring. Giants may have been a decent offense in 2020, but that was only 60 games. The big question, can they repeat that over 162 games? I believe the answer to that question is a resounding, “No way, Jose!”.
The bullpen is about as plain vanilla as you can get. No real standout, thus all roles are up in the air right now, including the closer’s role. And there is not a riskier FA signing than a relief pitcher. One year a guy is Mariano Rivera and the following year he’s Ralph Kramden.
Finally, FA signings are nice, but to contend in the NL West with the Dodgers and surging Padres, the Giants would have to sign almost half a new team: To wit, three starting pitchers, four or five relievers (Caveats be damned!) and maybe four or five position players to replace the aging vets like Belt, Crawford, Posey and Longoria.
With so many posters focusing on starting pitching, what about the Giants offense and bullpen? Neither one is particularly inspiring. Giants may have been a decent offense in 2020, but that was only 60 games. The big question, can they repeat that over 162 games? I believe the answer to that question is a resounding, “No way, Jose!”.
The bullpen is about as plain vanilla as you can get. No real standout, thus all roles are up in the air right now, including the closer’s role. And there is not a riskier FA signing than a relief pitcher. One year a guy is Mariano Rivera and the following year he’s Ralph Kramden.
Finally, FA signings are nice, but to contend in the NL West with the Dodgers and surging Padres, the Giants would have to sign almost half a new team: To wit, three starting pitchers, four or five relievers (Caveats be damned!) and maybe four or five position players to replace the aging vets like Belt, Crawford, Posey and Longoria.
With so many posters focusing on starting pitching, what about the Giants offense and bullpen? Neither one is particularly inspiring. Giants may have been a decent offense in 2020, but that was only 60 games. The big question, can they repeat that over 162 games? I believe the answer to that question is a resounding, “No way, Jose!”.
The bullpen is about as plain vanilla as you can get. No real standout, thus all roles are up in the air right now, including the closer’s role. And there is not a riskier FA signing than a relief pitcher. One year a guy is Mariano Rivera and the following year he’s Ralph Kramden.
Finally, FA signings are nice, but to contend in the NL West with the Dodgers and surging Padres, the Giants would have to sign almost half a new team: To wit, three starting pitchers, four or five relievers (Caveats be damned!) and maybe four or five position players to replace the aging vets like Belt, Crawford, Posey and Longoria.
With so many posters focusing on starting pitching, what about the Giants offense and bullpen? Neither one is particularly inspiring. Giants may have been a decent offense in 2020, but that was only 60 games. The big question, can they repeat that over 162 games? I believe the answer to that question is a resounding, “No way, Jose!”.
The bullpen is about as plain vanilla as you can get. No real standout, thus all roles are up in the air right now, including the closer’s role. And there is not a riskier FA signing than a relief pitcher. One year a guy is Mariano Rivera and the following year he’s Ralph Kramden.
Finally, FA signings are nice, but to contend in the NL West with the Dodgers and surging Padres, the Giants would have to sign almost half a new team: To wit, three starting pitchers, four or five relievers (Caveats be damned!) and maybe four or five position players to replace the aging vets like Belt, Crawford, Posey and Longoria.
With so many posters focusing on starting pitching, what about the Giants offense and bullpen? Neither one is particularly inspiring. Giants may have been a decent offense in 2020, but that was only 60 games. The big question, can they repeat that over 162 games? I believe the answer to that question is a resounding, “No way, Jose!”.
The bullpen is about as plain vanilla as you can get. No real standout, thus all roles are up in the air right now, including the closer’s role. And there is not a riskier FA signing than a relief pitcher. One year a guy is Mariano Rivera and the following year he’s Ralph Kramden.
Finally, FA signings are nice, but to contend in the NL West with the Dodgers and surging Padres, the Giants would have to sign almost half a new team: To wit, three starting pitchers, four or five relievers (Caveats be damned!) and maybe four or five position players to replace the aging vets like Belt, Crawford, Posey and Longoria.
With so many posters focusing on starting pitching, what about the Giants offense and bullpen? Neither one is particularly inspiring. Giants may have been a decent offense in 2020, but that was only 60 games. The big question, can they repeat that over 162 games? I believe the answer to that question is a resounding, “No way, Jose!”.
The bullpen is about as plain vanilla as you can get. No real standout, thus all roles are up in the air right now, including the closer’s role. And there is not a riskier FA signing than a relief pitcher. One year a guy is Mariano Rivera and the following year he’s Ralph Kramden.
Finally, FA signings are nice, but to contend in the NL West with the Dodgers and surging Padres, the Giants would have to sign almost half a new team: To wit, three starting pitchers, four or five relievers (Caveats be damned!) and maybe four or five position players to replace the aging vets like Belt, Crawford, Posey and Longoria.
With so many posters focusing on starting pitching, what about the Giants offense and bullpen? Neither one is particularly inspiring. Giants may have been a decent offense in 2020, but that was only 60 games. The big question, can they repeat that over 162 games? I believe the answer to that question is a resounding, “No way, Jose!”.
The bullpen is about as plain vanilla as you can get. No real standout, thus all roles are up in the air right now, including the closer’s role. And there is not a riskier FA signing than a relief pitcher. One year a guy is Mariano Rivera and the following year he’s Ralph Kramden.
Finally, FA signings are nice, but to contend in the NL West with the Dodgers and surging Padres, the Giants would have to sign almost half a new team: To wit, three starting pitchers, four or five relievers (Caveats be damned!) and maybe four or five position players to replace the aging vets like Belt, Crawford, Posey and Longoria.
Giants are a team heading in the wrong direction. The rotation doesn’t have a single guy that would make the Dodgers or Padres top 7. Their hitting this year is a mirage. 60 games, a whole bunch of hitters who outhit their metrics, 20 games against Rockies and Dbacks pitching and career 60 game years from Crawford and Belt. They both started hot in 2019 and then the bottom fell out. 2021 will see them fall out of the top twenty in offense. They missed a golden opportunity to strip the roster for young talent the last 2 seasons. They now don’t have much to offer. I would not be surprised if they end up last in the west next year.