Randy Arozarena, infield prospect? The current Rays outfielder began his pro career in Cuba’s Serie Nacional as a second baseman during his teenage days, so his defensive future wasn’t exactly settled by the time the Cardinals scouted him as a Mexican League player. “Some of the question marks at the time were more on profile because he played second base, a tick of third base…and then when we saw him in Mexico when he was eligible to sign he was full-time playing center field and we had great looks there,” Cardinals assistant GM Moises Rodriguez told Baseball America’s Kyle Glaser. “Profile muddled the evaluation a little bit, but as far as strength and twitch in his swing, that was never in question.”
This offensive potential was enough to merit a $1.25MM bonus for Arozarena as part of the Cardinals’ 2016-17 international signing class, though Arozarena has long since left second base behind, and also left St. Louis last winter. The Cards dealt Arozarena to Tampa Bay as part of a multi-player trade that seemingly featured Jose Martinez and pitching prospect Matthew Liberatore as the headliners, yet it is Arozarena who has blossomed as a major piece of the 2020 club. After recovering from a bout of COVID-19 early in the season, Arozarena hit .281/.382/.641 with seven homers over 76 PA in the regular season, and has been even hotter during the Rays’ postseason run.
More from around both the AL and NL East…
- It seems possible that Adam Eaton has played his last game with the Nationals, MASNsports.com’s Mark Zuckerman writes that “you’d think they might prefer another corner outfielder with more pop than Eaton can provide.” Beyond just Eaton’s rough .226/.285/.384 slash line over 176 plate appearances in 2020, the Nats also figure to consider glovework and cost in deciding whether or not to bring Eaton back next year, and neither factor is necessarily in the veteran outfielder’s favor. Eaton’s defensive metrics took a significant step back this season, and exercising his 2021 club option is a $9MM choice for the Nats — Eaton’s option can be picked up for $10.5MM or bought out for $1.5MM. With a lot of money already committed to the 2021 team and several roster issues in need of being addressed, Washington might prefer to spread that $9MM around to multiple areas, though letting Eaton go would create another need in left field.
- Third base is another problem spot for the Nationals, as Todd Dybas of NBC Sports Washington notes. Carter Kieboom didn’t produce in his rookie year, leaving veterans Asdrubal Cabrera and Josh Harrison having to pick up the slack to mixed results. It’s obviously too early to give up on Kieboom, so Dybas suggests that the Nats could just sign another veteran on a short-term contract as a depth option if Kieboom again struggles. Conversely, the Nationals could make a bigger internal move by shifting Luis Garcia to third base, or look outside the current roster for a free agent signing either big (Justin Turner) or more modest (Jake Lamb).
- Gary Sanchez is “the biggest decision of the Yankees’ offseason,” George A. King III of the New York Post writes. Sanchez’s disastrous 2020 season has seemingly cost him the starting catcher job, and it remains to be seen if the Bronx Bombers still consider him as a part of their future. It doesn’t seem likely that the Yankees would simply non-tender Sanchez (owed a raise on his $5MM salary heading into his second arbitration year), yet a trade might not be out of the question. The Yankees would obviously be trying to shop Sanchez when his trade value is at its lowest, King notes, “yet, there is no guarantee the Yankees will ever be in position to sell high on Sanchez.” There is also the matter of finding a replacement at catcher — the Yankees are already looking at a second consecutive year with a big luxury tax bill, so splurging on J.T. Realmuto might not be feasible.
“The Yankees would obviously be trying to shop Sanchez when his trade value is at its lowest”
Hmm.
So what would be your plan….let him get another 500 at bats and hit another .150 to drive up his “value”?
Why would you ever want to shop a player at his lowest?
Why? Because you are in “win now” mode, which the Yankees always are, and there seems no end to the disappointment that is Gary Sanchez. If they can’t afford to replace him with JT, however, they may be out of options with a significant upside.
You shop him while his value is low because you have no intention of him being your starting catcher next season. His value will not improve if he’s sitting on the Bench. The Yankees, and most competitive teams want a catcher who can actually catch.
As for Mo’s comments. They consider Kyle Higoshioka to be an upgrade right now. A catcher who can simply catch and doesn’t have a complete wet noodle of a bat is an upgrade.
You don’t purposefullly shop players when they’re at their lowest. Like seriously lol.
Player has horrible season:
“well, his trade value has never been this low, perfect time to trade him!”
Said no one. Ever.
Perfect time, of course not
But there are times where teams decide they need to improve a spot and give up on the home grown guy
That’s the way to look at this imo. Sanchez is basically homegrown(I know trade). He’s been good In past but has been bad for multiple years. If all of’ers healthy, so dh full.. and you decide to spend on Realmuto. What do you do with him?
I 100% agree it’s not perfect. Not at all. But it happens…
Sanchez is homegrown. The Yankees signed him at the age of 16. I don’t think you sell low on him. 2020 was an anomalous year and several superstars had horrible seasons. I know his problems go back further, but if you can’t sign Realmuto, it’s probably worth keeping him and making it clear he has to win his job back in 2021. He still makes relatively little money, so if it doesn’t work out, then you cut bait,
This is true, but there is also the fact that this might not be Sanchez’s basement.
2019 he had a solid year and with 2020 I think a lot of bad years are going to be written off as fluke. So you could get teams betting that he’s more 2019 than what he produced in 2020.
Bring him back in 2021 and he produces a similar line as this year you will likely be looking at org filler in return. Right now you still have a chance to at least get something useful if you move him.
Agreed. I think you have to bring him back and see if he’s the 800 OPS guy.
Maybe he’s just one of those alternate year guys’. He has a good year, slacks off and has a bad year, which then motivates him to work harder and have a good year. I’m not arguing he’s going to return to a +800 OPS guy, just that given his age, history, potential talent, afford and controllability, it’s worth bringing him back.
Briffle- personally, if I were writing this article, I think I would write something like this:
If the Yankees were to shop Sánchez this offseason they would obviously have to sell low on him.
Hey, unless you have a time machine and can go back in time and trade the rookie version of Gary you have no guarantee he will get his value back. Don’t be a sucker for the sunk cost fallacy.
Black Ace57 this is real life, there are never any guarantees for any player to keep producing.
The Yankees also took catchers with their first pick 2/3 past years. Neither will necessarily be ready next year and without the minor leagues playing this yr who knows but I’m assuming they hope one of them will workout and be mlb ready in a few seasons. They probably don’t need a long term solution at catcher. Just someone who can block and hit better than .130 for a yr or 2.
I’d love to buy low and steal an affordable player, who is controllable for multiple years, and who has elite offensive upside at his position.
Yea, he had a bad season, but a lot of players had down years in this 60 game stretch. Selling low on someone like Sanchez after this Covid season is an extremely short sided viewpoint.
What will he cost next season? 7-8 million? That’s not expensive considering his history, ability, and experience.
That’s the thing though, you don’t KNOW this is when his value is at its lowest.
Sometimes it’s better to cut bait and get something back from a team who thinks they can fix him, if the alternative could be watching his value go even lower and getting nothing at all.
We could go around in circles with this all day, but it all comes down to the risk/reward for keeping him, as opposed to risk/reward of trading him.
What is greater, the rewards for paying him and hoping that he returns to the 800+ OPS guy, or do the risks of paying him that money, him sucking again, and losing out on whatever you could have gotten in a trade for him by selling low?
So you trade him, save on whatever salary minus money moved in the trade, and you get what exactly for him? An A ball type prospect not on anyone’s top prospects list?
Or you hold onto him, pay him whatever his raise will be, and he either goes back to around what he did in 2019 and he adds that value to your team and increases his trade value, or he sucks again and it’s a waste of money and you lose out on whatever low prospect you might have gotten.
To me, the risk/reward of keeping him and him returning to form are greater than the risk/reward of trading him.
Hopefully this make sense, I don’t think I did a good job of trying to explain the risk/reward of Sanchez that is going around in my head, but I’m on like four hours of sleep so this is what I got.
I’d be more willing on Eaton hitting next year than JBJ, tho think neither gets close to 8-10m aav. Add to those 2 Pillar is once again a FA am pretty sure and out produced both? Interesting OF market behind top tier Springer and Ozuna types everyone is looking mainly at.
Pillar has reached the point where he doesn’t really hit enough to justify regular playing time, and JBJ will probably be there relatively soon.
Honestly, you could probably throw Eaton in a similar boat, although I do think he’s likely to rebound on offense.
Thinking the 3 teams in the running for JT Realmuto will be the Phillies, Yankees, and the Mets.
i think that’s an over simplification. sure those three are the biggest players, but few teams really have that franchise catcher that they’d opt for over JT. for all we know some team like LAD could swoop in and then deal one of their C prospects for a bigger need.
I agree with DarkSide830. Anybody who can pay for Realmuto will be in the running.
Also, my prediction is that the Mets won’t be throwing money around this winter, and won’t end up signing Realmuto as a result.
Okay, so you’ve dropped the Mets from the list. Other than the Yanks and the Phillies, who are these teams “who can pay” for JT?
tbe perception that Cohen’s going to be throwing caution to the wind with his signings is crazy in my mind. will he spend more then the Wilpons? sure, but i don’t think he’s going miles over where they were, especially not initially. and i dont think most Mets fans really care that much about JT simply because signing him is a way of screwing the Phillies. not enough to buy many more tickets that is.
The teams I had in mind were the Dodgers, Astros and (to a lesser extent) even the Padres.
I’m not removing the Mets from the list. They’re still an obvious fit for Realmuto and they could plausibly sign him, I just don’t think they ultimately will, That’s not the kind of front office that Cohen appears to be bringing in.
Something tells me with Will Smith in his pre-arb years—the Dodgers will not be giving Realmuto a look.
Pads just gave up a pretty significant package for a catcher and have made comments about not spending very much this winter.
Obviously the Astros make sense. But I would doubt he actually ends up there. They have multiple outfielders leaving and are paying JV to not pitch next year. I don’t think they’d choose to spend that much money there. I could always be wrong though.
Maybe the Reds are a dark horse. If they want to splurge again. Blue Jays have the money if they want to upgrade the Jansen/Kirk combo. It would definitely be funny to see him go back to Miami too. They made the playoffs before Philly bring Realmuto back and have Sixto.
They should have a new owner by then, seems like just the player a wealthy owner would want to go after to make a splash in their first offseason…to me at least
Never discount Arte Moreno throwing some money around.
I get what you’re saying, but a better example would maybe be the giants with Bart
LAD has two starting caliber catching prospects who have played in the majors and are under 26, and will smith finished with a top 7 OPS.. in the game. Not qualified but still, a 164 OPS+ from your catcher is insane and not something you give up
Lad isn’t spending on catching
I completely disagree with that sentiment, to me unless there is an inherent need behind the plate, I think teams will be measured especially with the unknown in rapid decline phase we see for Cs. I’m not sure I see the market being what we envision or assume it should be, unless there’s a slide in the expected price tag.
I can’t see the Dodgers having any interest for example. I agree most teams would love to have JT rather than their catcher in general, but I think a lot of teams in this climate won’t view him as a need and/or be more inclined to spend on more crucial aspects of their team.
The Dodgers have a quality, league minimum starter in Smith already, with a league minimum ready to go prospect in Ruiz, and Austin Barnes already lined up as their C depth. Besides having money, there’s pretty much no reason to think the Dodgers will be overly interested in JT.
Yep. Dodger money is earmarked for Seager(or other SS), Bellinger, Buehler and JT In near future
More I think about it too, I think they’re gonna be the team To pay Chris Taylor. He’s just such a clutch piece. Sadly I think Kike, Kenley and Joc are finding new homes
Im not sad about it…like they say when one door closes…….
Joc was always over rated and looks completely lost, somebody however will pay (too) much this offseason
Its time to move on from Kenley (like literally yesterday!!) He can make his 20 mill next year with us then we can shake hands and wish him the best
I dont want to sign anyone really outside of maybe a little pen help this offseason and JT- Theres no need on offence or the staff…lets keep the money fluid for 22 and beyond
I say it’s gonna be the Nationals,just out of spite for the Phillies and Bryce Harper.
Nationals should definitely be in the running for JT. Suzuki is a free agent (and at 37 years old he can’t be relied on for much behind the plate) and Gomes is only signed through 2021.
TBH, Andujar, Gardner & Sanchez are done in pinstripes.
Willing to bet 2/3 of this is wrong
A fool (you) and his money are soon parted…
I’d take Gary in Atlanta for a minimal trade value. Partner him with TD for 2021+ and see how things go.
I believe D’Arnaud is signed for another season. Atlanta wouldn’t be a good fit for Sanchez with D’Arnaud entrenched. I’m sure Flowers will still be lingering around the clubhouse as well.
Unless Ozuna isn’t resigned and they would use Sanchez as the primary DH.
I’d honestly rather have someone like Jason Castro to catch with dArnoud over Tyler Flowers. Or bring Suzuki back on a 1yr deal. Hell, I’d rather give Robinson Chirinos a cheap 1yr deal and hope for a bounce back season. Either that or just let Wiliams Contreras be the backup. But sadly, I think you are right about him being back next year
So many reasons it won’t happen. First and foremost, they have a healthy catching pipeline finally and it’s at minimum cost. They’re gonna be paying Freddie soon. They absolutely have to bring Ozuna back. They’ll be signing another starting pitcher. They’ll be spending to either re-sign or replace Melancon and Greene. Plus, he just sucks on defense.
Randy breaking out saved that trade for the Rays. He always had solid upside but no one saw this coming. Jose Martinez was a complete waste. Using the higher draft pick on Alika Williams when you already have Wander Franco and another slap hitting contact SS Xaiver Edwards in your system was questionable at best.
assets are assets
Woah Woah, Franco is not a slap hitter. The dude has put up a 523 slugging percentage in 175 minor league games. I know part of that is a product of his high average, but considering he was 17 and 18, the power is good and will only develop further as he gets older and stronger.
The Rays must have seen something special in Arozarena, I doubt Martinez was their top target in that trade.
So many people focus on Jose Martinez in that trade when he was far from the piece the Rays wanted. He was more or less a spare piece for the Cardinals, and used as icing on the cake in the Arozarena deal.
I can see Jake Lamb being signed by the Nats this offseason as 3B filler. He would be available to platoon with a right-handed capable bat already on the roster such as Luis Garcia or with another FA.
I can’t see Justin Turner being with any team other then the Dodgers, but that’s just me making opinionated assumptions. At the right price, he would potentially be a great offensive asset and provide the lineup with more balance. Personally, I think the Brewers sign him but (again) that’s just my own opinion.
Luis Garcia bats left-handed…
Justin Turner will remain a Dodger. He is the de-facto team captain, even with Kershaw and Betts backing him up in the leadership role. The Dodgers will let Jansen and Pederson go, but I think they will also keep Hernandez. He is just too valuable of a utitity player and he is also important for team chemistry.
Dodgers get past the Braves in 6.
Yeah, it’s hard to see Turner go anywhere at this point.
Per above statements..what the mets dont need is an over 30 soon to be injured alot catcher..how about drafting a good one for a change?
Sanchez putting his knee on the ground with runners on base should be enough to cost him his job. And btw, the clown is putting the wrong knee on the ground. You drop the glove side knee when bases are empty. Wonderful coaching NY!!!
if Eaton is bought out and let go, Soto moves to RF, his natural position. Robles will need to return to both his defensive and potential offensive production levels to be the CF for the future which i believe he can do. Andrew Stevenson has always shown promise and his last couple weeks of the season in 2020 he flashed as what COULD be in LF. he has the speed and flexibility to play in any of the 3 OF spots. 2020 was a very small sample size and Taylor is decent depth in the OF the OF of the Nats could be a weak area if Robles is mediocre and Stevenson and Taylor end up just being quality AAA players.
Suggestion: buy Eaton’s option at $1.5mill. Offer him $4.5mill with performance based incentives. OF prospects are a weak spot. Definitely an area via draft, Int’l signings and or prospect trades the Nats need to shore up. Soto is a Nat for at least 4 more years, hopefully much more. but the clock is ticking.
re: the infield. Castro will be back. Kieboom will obviously be given another serious shot. And Garcia proved to be a bright spot ahead of his time table. Trea Turner is rock solid and needs to be locked up. “lock him up! lock him up! lock him up!”
Castro could be moved to 3B where he played some in 2019 and pretty much lock that down for the year. Garcia can split time with Kieboom at 2B. Kieboom can spell Castro at 3B and Trea at SS on occasion, platoon a bit with Garcia at 2B and get some time at 1B as well. ideally, to get his bat regularly in the lineup and see where he feels most comfortable going forward. bringing back a Josh Harrison would be ideal as well as a Howie Kendrick.
The Nats have room on their payroll but they have depth that needs to be filled out, some holes that potentially need to be plugged and current and future contract issues that need to be dealt with: ie options on Eaton/Sanchez/Kendrick potential future deals with Scherzer/Turner/Soto/Castro etc. so a big player acquisition is certainly possible. and with Rizzo’s new deal i would not put it past the Nats to do at least one major FA deal.
Obviously selling low isn’t ideal. But you’d do it for pretty much the same reason you’d finally bail on a stock in your portfolio that kept dropping in price. You reach a point where you cease to believe it’s going to rebound, so you cut your losses.
Do you believe Sanchez is going to improve? Then you hang onto him.
If you don’t, you sell low and move on. If you hang onto him and he continues to suck, you’ll eventually end up selling lower, and meanwhile you’ll suffer the wasted roster spot and the poor defense and hole in your lineup that might cost you some games.
IMO, the one bright spot in the miserable loss to the Rays was HIggy’s outstanding audition for the starting job. I’ve never seen a backstop put on a more impressive display of athleticism.
The Yankees don’t need another high-strikeout slugger behind the dish so much as their staff needs a solid receiver. I don’t think the front office needs to overthink this and spend for another catcher. They have a superb one already. I’d deal Sanchez for an arm — now.
Best post in the tread ^
The Nats have several needs to fill (LF, 3B, 1B, #4SP and Lefty in the pen) this winter, and one of the weakest farm systems in the league, so they’ll need to be filled (for the most part) via FA. From what I’ve read, they’ll have something like $50M to spend.
They must add a power bat to provide some protection for Soto from one of those positions. I think they can piece something together at 3B, between Kieboom, Castro and Harrison. They should have enough $$ to sign an impact player in LF (Springer maybe?). The position that is the biggest question mark IMO is 1B. Neither Zimmerman or Kendrick is a lock to play in 2021, both having mentioned possible retirement. Even if they both decided to play, I have a hard time seeing the club count on two aging vets to play 162 at the position. One of them , splitting time with a younger players seems to make more sense. The FA market at 1B is fairly weak, and they don’t have any prospects at the position.
After Ross opted out for 2020 and Fedde and Voth having poor seasons, You really can’t count on two of them holding down #4 & #5 in the rotation. Sign a FA and let those three fight it out for the last spot?
They also need a backup catcher and at least on lefty (maybe two) in the bullpen.
Rizzo & Co have their work cut out for them.