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Randy Arozarena

Mariners, Randy Arozarena Avoid Arbitration

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The Mariners have avoided arbitration with Randy Arozarena, as first reported by Francys Romero. The left fielder will earn $11.3MM in 2025, slightly less than his projected $11.7MM salary (per MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz). He will be eligible for arbitration once more ahead of the 2026 campaign.

Arozarena, 30 in February, is coming off the least productive season of his MLB career. Entering the 2024 campaign, the former AL Rookie of the Year had a career .802 OPS and 127 wRC+ in just over 2000 trips to the plate. In 2024, his OPS dropped to a career-worst .720, while his wRC+ fell to a career-worst 114. Those are still above-average numbers, to be clear, but a step back from his All-Star-caliber performances of the past.

On the bright side, Arozarena hit significantly better after a deadline trade from the Rays to the Mariners, raising his wRC+ from 109 to 122. Interestingly, the biggest difference between his numbers with Tampa Bay and Seattle was his batting average on balls in play (BABIP). He actually struck out more often and hit for less power with the Mariners, but his BABIP increased from .249 to .323. That could be good news for Arozarena, who came into the year with a career .331 BABIP, far higher than his overall .275 BABIP in 2024. If more of his batted balls drop for hits in 2025, he could get back to being a far more productive hitter once again.

Even in a down year, Arozarena hit 20 home runs and stole 20 bases, achieving his fourth straight 20/20 season. He also ranked among the top five qualified AL batters with an 11.3% walk rate. On top of that, he reached 600 plate appearances for the fourth year in a row. Since his debut in 2019, his only two stints on the injured list have been due to COVID-19 protocols. An outfielder who can play every day while offering a rare combination of power, speed, and plate discipline is a valuable player indeed; he’d command far more than $11.3MM on the open market. He will certainly be valuable to the Mariners, who need as much offense as they can get. Seattle’s pitching staff is among the best in the league, but the bats failed to support the arms last season. That’s precisely why the M’s brought Arozarena in at the deadline. They’ll be counting on him to continue producing at the plate in 2025.

Rays Acquire Ty Cummings From Mariners To Complete Randy Arozarena Trade

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The Rays have acquired right-hander Ty Cummings from the Mariners as the player to be named later in the July trade that send outfielder Randy Arozarena to Seattle, per announcements from both clubs. The righty wasn’t on Seattle’s 40-man roster and won’t need to be added to Tampa’s.

The Mariners were leading the American League West for much of the first half of 2024 but were fading in the summer as their offense disappeared. They attempted to revive their lineup at the deadline by acquiring Justin Turner from the Blue Jays and Arozarena from the Rays. In the deal with Tampa, the M’s parted with prospects Aidan Smith, Brody Hopkins and a player to be named later, who has now been revealed as Cummings.

Both Turner and Arozarena hit well for the M’s but the club still fell shy of the postseason. They still have a chance to recoup some value on the Arozarena deal going forward as he can be retained for two more seasons. He made $8.1MM in 2024 and will be due two more raises in the forthcoming campaigns. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for a salary of $11.7MM in 2025.

Cummings, 23 next month, was selected by the Mariners in the seventh round of the 2023 draft. Taken out of Campbell University in Buies Creek, North Carolina, he signed for a $225K bonus. He made his professional debut this year, making 25 starts for High-A Everett. In his 116 2/3 innings for the AquaSox, he allowed 4.17 earned runs per nine. He struck out 24.7% of batters faced, walked 9.2% of them and got opponents to hit the ball on the ground at a 50.3% clip.

Back in July, Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs published his list of the top 34 prospects in the Mariners’ system. Cummings wasn’t one of those 34 but got an honorable mention as Longenhagen described him as a potential depth starter.

MLBTR Podcast: Fallout From The Trade Deadline And Mike Trout Injured Again

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Phillies Notes: Hays, Marsh, Green, Arozarena

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The Phillies and Orioles completed an intriguing trade Friday that saw Baltimore land Seranthony Dominguez and Cristian Pache in exchange for Austin Hays, which represented something of a lengthy pursuit for Phils president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski.  The executive told reporters (including The Athletic’s Matt Gelb and The Philadelphia Inquirer’s Scott Lauber) that “I’ve actually tried to acquire him the last two trading deadlines, and [the Orioles] were asking for much more than we wanted to give.”

The O’s finally budged, perhaps due to both Dominguez addressing Baltimore’s bullpen needs, and Hays’ increasingly expendable nature within a crowded Orioles outfield.  An ice-cold start to the season and then a four-week IL stint due to a calf strain led to Hays’ playing time being reduced, though he has hit quite well in a more limited capacity over the last two-plus months.  Even with the first six weeks of the season essentially being a wash, Hays has gotten his offensive production back above league average, delivering a 102 wRC+ from a .255/.316/.395 slash line over 175 plate appearances.

It isn’t too far removed from the 108 wRC+ Hays posted over 1677 PA with Baltimore from 2021-23, and his recent hot streak indicates that Hays could certainly still match or surpass that number over the rest of the 2024 campaign.  Hays’ numbers against right-handed pitching are far below his career norms, so if those stats in particular pick up, Hays will certainly put himself in line for more of a regular role in the Phillies’ lineup.

“We don’t think he’s just in a position where he has to be platooned by any means,” Dombrowski said about Hays, who for now seemingly will join with the left-handed hitting Brandon Marsh as part of a timeshare in left field.  Marsh could also be moved to center field to split time with the righty-swinging Johan Rojas should Hays force his way into everyday duty in left field.  As Lauber notes, Marsh’s own splits have cut into his playing time — Marsh has been crushing righties but struggling badly against lefties this season, thus necessitating the Phillies’ need for a right-handed bat for the outfield picture.

Addressing that need cost the Phils an experienced reliever in Dominguez, which was no small matter for a Philadelphia team that was already known to be looking for bullpen help prior to the trade.  “We just felt that for us to get a right-handed hitter we had to give up something,” Dombrowski said, and the club will now target “somebody who can pitch innings late in a game that are important innings for us, like our other guys do.”

Carlos Estevez, Tanner Scott, Kyle Finnegan, and Michael Kopech are some of the more prominent relievers linked to Philadelphia’s trade pursuits in recent weeks, and Blue Jays right-hander Chad Green is also “one of the Phillies’ top targets,” in the words of MLB Network’s Jon Morosi (X link).  Green is generally considered to be available given how the struggling Jays will be selling to some extent at the deadline, though Toronto is reportedly focusing on selling pending free agents, whereas Green is under contract through the 2025 season.

As per the unusual multi-option terms of the deal Green signed in January 2023, he ended up earning $21MM over the 2024-25 seasons, once the Blue Jays exercised the two-year version of their club option last fall.  This translates to $10.5MM in 2025 and roughly $3.5MM left in salary this season.  This is no small matter to a Phillies team that is on pace to exceed the luxury tax threshold for the third straight season, and would ideally like to avoid the third penalty tier of $277MM.  RosterResource has the Phils at roughly a $262.3MM tax number right now, and crossing the $277MM line would give the Phillies a 95% tax on any overages, plus their first pick in the 2025 draft would be dropped back by 10 spots.

The Jays could potentially eat more of Green’s salary if the Phillies were to offer a better prospect return, so there are ways for the Phils to work around the payroll issue (while leaving room for other deadline upgrades) if they decide Green is their guy on the trade market.  The veteran righty has a 1.74 ERA over 31 innings for Toronto this season, though his 3.82 SIERA is perhaps a more accurate reflection of Green’s performance.  Green has benefited greatly from a 100% strand rate and a .187 BABIP, and his 23.1% strikeout rate is a little below average, while his 7.7% walk rate is pretty respectable.

In other trade roads not taken, Lauber and Gelb both wrote that the Phillies talked with the Rays about Randy Arozarena before the outfielder was dealt to the Mariners on Thursday.  Gelb noted that Tampa Bay wanted “a top prospect” in exchange for Arozarena, but the Phils weren’t willing to part with the unknown player.

Landing Arozarena would’ve certainly counted as more of a blockbuster move to address Philadelphia’s need for a right-handed hitting outfielder.  While Dombrowski has made a habit of trading prospects for established stars during his storied front office career, it could be that the PBO didn’t want to move whatever particular minor leaguer the Rays wanted, or Dombrowski was wary in general about depleting from the Phillies’ somewhat limited farm system.

Mariners Still Active In Trade Market

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The Mariners’ acquisition of Randy Arozarena last night is perhaps the most notable swap of the season thus far, but Seattle isn’t content with that lone acquisition. MLB.com’s Jon Morosi tweets that the M’s are still talking to other clubs, looking to add another bat and a high-leverage reliever. Adam Jude of the Seattle Times adds some context on the team’s search for bats, reporting that two of the top bats on the market — Oakland’s Brent Rooker and Chicago’s Luis Robert — may not be likely to land in Seattle. The A’s have been reluctant to trade with Seattle, per Jude, while an acquisition of Robert is considered “highly unlikely at this point.”

Both Rooker and Robert would add a controllable, high-end bat to what has been a stagnant Mariners offense. Rooker is arb-eligible for the first time this offseason and controlled three more years. Robert is signed through the 2025 season, and his contract contains a pair of $20MM club options.

The A’s haven’t always been reluctant to deal within the AL West, but the last time they completed a trade with the Mariners came back in 2017, when the two clubs swapped Emilio Pagan for Ryon Healy. In fact, the only trade they’ve made with a division rival in the past three years was this April’s acquisition of righty Brandon Bielak in a deal that sent cash back to the Astros. It’s always possible there’ll be a change in direction, but their once-frequent intra-division trades (e.g. Elvis Andrus, Khris Davis, Jed Lowrie, Jurickson Profar, Pagan, Healy) have dried up in recent years.

With regard to Robert, there’s no intra-division component to be considered, but traction on Robert hasn’t really picked up, it seems. ESPN’s Jeff Passan writes that the White Sox have set a high asking price and haven’t yet seen potential trade partners willing to meet it or even come particularly close.

The mere mention of Rooker and Robert aligns largely with the latest reporting from Daniel Kramer of MLB.com, who suggests that Seattle’s front office has been “aggressive” in trying to add multiple impact bats. Arozarena checks one box, but the Mariners’ lineup could use upgrades at multiple spots.

It’s even possible the M’s and Rays could line up on another deal; Kramer writes that the two teams discussed infielders Isaac Paredes and Yandy Diaz in the offseason. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com tweets that the Mariners are again a potential landing spot for Diaz, who is drawing trade interest and was reinstated from the restricted list within the past hour after a week-long absence to tend to an undisclosed family matter.

Like Arozarena, the 32-year-old Diaz got out to a slow start in 2024 but has heated up in recent months. Over his past 280 plate appearances, he’s slashing a robust .302/.354/.453 with seven homers, 16 doubles, a triple and just a 13.9% strikeout rate. He’d give the Mariners an upgrade over the recently designated Ty France and simultaneously accomplish the team’s ongoing goal of reducing their MLB-worst strikeout rate. He’s earning $8MM the second season of a three-year, $24MM contract extension and is owed $10MM in 2025 before the team must decide on a $12MM option for the 2026 season.

Paredes, 25, is arguably one of the most appealing possibilities on the entire trade market. He’s played third base primarily of late, but the versatile infielder can handle all four infield positions and has emerged as a genuine middle-of-the-order slugger. Dating back to Opening Day 2023, he’s slashed .250/.353/.469 with 47 homers in 241 games. He’s earning only $3.4MM this season in the first of four arbitration seasons (as a Super Two player). Paredes’ versatility, productive bat, remaining control and currently affordable price tag could make the prospect cost to acquire him prohibitive, but the Rays are generally open to listen on anyone — and teams have been at least inquiring on Paredes recently.

Mariners Acquire Randy Arozarena

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The Mariners landed a much-needed lineup upgrade on Thursday night. Seattle announced the acquisition of Randy Arozarena from the Rays in exchange for two prospects — outfielder Aidan Smith and right-hander Brody Hopkins — as well as a player to be named later. Seattle had an opening on their 40-man roster after designating Ty France for assignment earlier this week, so no additional move was necessary.

Arozarena had an excellent four-plus year run in Tampa Bay. The Rays acquired him from the Cardinals over the 2019-20 offseason in a deal sending top pitching prospect Matthew Liberatore to St. Louis. Arozarena had made a brief MLB debut the prior season, but the 2020 postseason represented his true emergence as a star. He mashed 10 home runs in 20 games, snagging ALCS MVP honors and helping the Rays reach the World Series.

Despite that breakout playoff performance, Arozarena retained rookie eligibility into 2021. He cruised to Rookie of the Year honors behind a .274/.356/.459 slash with 20 homers and stolen bases apiece. That was the first of three straight 20-20 campaigns for the Cuban outfielder. He swiped a career-high 32 bases in ’22 and reached 23 longballs in his first All-Star season last year.

Arozarena appeared in 445 games between 2021-23. He hit .264/.349/.443 with 63 homers in a little more than 1900 plate appearances. That production was 26 percentage points above league average, as measured by wRC+, putting him among the best left fielders in the game. Arozarena’s accolades and consistency led to quickly escalating arbitration salaries. That fueled chatter that the low-payroll Rays could deal him last offseason.

Tampa Bay obviously rebuffed whatever trade offers they received over the winter. They certainly hoped Arozarena would anchor their lineup and help them to a sixth straight playoff berth. He and the team got off to a cold start, however, putting them in a hole from which they’ve never really recovered.

Arozarena hit .158/.257/.312 through the end of May. Some of that was the result of an unsustainably poor .186 average on balls in play, but his strikeout rate spiked to a near-29% rate. Arozarena has turned things around following that disastrous stretch. He’s raking at a .290/.402/.517 clip over the past two months. He has dramatically cut back on the swing-and-miss (down to 19.5%) and slightly increased his walk percentage. The results have been far more in line with his career track record.

In aggregate, Arozarena’s season numbers are pedestrian. He’s hitting .211/.318/.394 with 15 homers through 409 plate appearances. That’s only marginally better than average and would be the worst numbers of his career. Given his overall track record and recent form, it seems fair to view his early-season struggles as more of an anomaly than a worrying trend. Getting anything close to the 29-year-old’s career production would be a major boost for a Seattle lineup that has hit .216/.298/.362 on the year. Only the White Sox have scored fewer runs this month, the biggest reason the M’s have watched their 10-game cushion in the AL West evaporate.

The Mariners are only a half-game ahead of the Rays in the American League standings. It’s rare to see a team trade an impact player to another club that close to them in the playoff picture. Seattle is in better shape than Tampa Bay with regards to snagging a playoff berth, though. The Rays need to jump three teams and erase a four-game deficit in the Wild Card mix. Seattle has a much more realistic path to a division title, as they’re only one game behind the Astros and hold a 1.5 game edge on the third-place Rangers.

While Tampa Bay isn’t going to completely tear things down, they could dangle a number of veteran players in the next few days. The Rays had already moved Aaron Civale and Phil Maton. Dealing Arozarena seems to increase the likelihood of them moving the likes of Brandon Lowe, Yandy Díaz, Zach Eflin and Zack Littell. The Rays could also try to acquire upper minors or MLB-ready talent to aid a long shot playoff push this season and help them for a return to contention next year.

Seattle is in much more traditional buyer mode. Their offense was reeling even before losing Julio Rodríguez and J.P. Crawford to injury this week. Arozarena is one of what is likely to be multiple upgrades to their lineup as they try to capitalize on arguably MLB’s best starting rotation. The M’s have relied on another former Ray, Luke Raley, as their primary left fielder. Raley has been an average hitter on the season overall, but he has fanned 22 times with a .119/.224/.254 slash in 67 plate appearances this month.

Arozarena is playing this season on an $8.1MM salary. The M’s take on around $2.83MM for the stretch run, which will push their estimated player payroll to around $143MM (as calculated by RosterResource). Managing partner John Sherman said last month that the front office had the spending capacity to add players at the deadline. They’ve put that into practice here and could do so again before Tuesday. Seattle controls Arozarena through arbitration for two more seasons. He’ll likely earn a boost into the $12-14MM range next year and could approach a $20MM salary for the ’26 campaign.

The Rays, a team that entered the season with a player payroll below $100MM, probably weren’t eager to commit to those 2025-26 salaries. A trade by next offseason always seemed likely. They’re sufficiently intrigued by the prospect package to make the move a few months early, even if it deals a hit to their already slim playoff chances.

Smith and Hopkins each ranked in the middle tiers of a Seattle farm system that is arguably the best in the league. They respectively checked in 14th and 15th on Baseball America’s most recent organizational list. Smith, 20, was a fourth-round pick out of a Texas high school last summer. He signed for an overslot $1.2MM bonus.

The righty-hitting outfielder has posted huge numbers for Low-A Modesto. Smith is hitting .284/.402/.470 with 26 doubles, a triple and nine homers across 358 plate appearances. He’s drawing walks at a massive 14.5% clip against a slightly elevated 24.3% strikeout rate. BA praises Smith’s athleticism and defensive instincts in center field. He has significant power potential in a 6’3″ frame, though there are still questions about his pure hitting ability.

Hopkins was a sixth-round draftee out of Winthrop last year. The 6’4″ righty has been one of the big risers in the system this year. He owns a 2.90 ERA over 83 2/3 innings with Modesto. Hopkins has fanned 26.5% of batters faced while issuing walks at an 11.1% clip. He has hard a tough time throwing strikes dating back to his time in college, but Baseball America credits him with a plus fastball/slider combination from a lower arm angle that’s especially tough for same-handed hitters. He could project to a bullpen future but should continue to start for the time being.

Neither Smith nor Hopkins are close to the majors or to Rule 5 eligibility. Pending the revelation of the PTBNL (who cannot be on Seattle’s 40-man roster or one of this year’s draftees), it’s a future-oriented package for Tampa Bay. The next few days should reveal whether the Rays are focusing their deadline hauls on lower minors prospects or simply liked Smith and Hopkins enough to overlook their distance from the big leagues.

Francys Romero first reported the Rays were trading Arozarena to Seattle. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reported the Rays were acquiring two prospects and a player to be named later. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times was first to report that Smith and Hopkins were the prospects.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Dodgers Interested In Randy Arozarena

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The Dodgers have made clear they’re looking to make a splash at the top of the trade market. Most of the focus has been on the pitching side — general manager Brandon Gomes said just last night the front office is seeking “an impact-type arm” — and it seems they’re taking a similar approach to the position players.

Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports that Los Angeles is seeking a significant offensive upgrade in the outfield. The Dodgers have already been tied to White Sox star Luis Robert Jr. Feinsand writes that Rays left fielder Randy Arozarena is also on L.A.’s radar. The Dodgers had been loosely linked to Arozarena over the offseason.

The fit is rather straightforward. Teoscar Hernández could handle right field if the Dodgers added an everyday player in left. Andy Pages could play center field regularly while Jason Heyward would move into a fourth outfield role. Each of Hernández, Arozarena and Pages hit from the right side, meaning Heyward should be able to rotate in against right-handed pitching fairly frequently to keep everyone fresh.

Arozarena started the season terribly. The former All-Star carried a .158/.257/.312 batting line into June. He has caught fire over the past couple months, raking at a .286/.392/.514 clip through his most recent 166 plate appearances. The dreadful spring is taking a toll on Arozarena’s season line, which sits at a pedestrian .211/.313/.395 mark. Considering he’d been a well above-average hitter over his first three and a half years in the big leagues, most teams will probably view his April/May performance as an anomaly.

That’s also true of the Rays, who are shaping up as one of the most interesting teams to watch over the next week. Tampa Bay isn’t out of playoff contention, but they’re sitting at .500 with a 5.5 game deficit in the Wild Card race. A playoff push this year is possible but unlikely. While the Rays aren’t going to orchestrate a complete teardown, they’ll likely consider offers on a host of productive veterans (e.g. Brandon Lowe, Zach Eflin, Zack Littell, Isaac Paredes, Pete Fairbanks). Whether to trade Arozarena is one of the biggest questions facing the front office.

The 29-year-old outfielder is playing on an $8.1MM salary, a little less than $3MM of which is yet to be paid. He’s set for two more arbitration raises before getting to free agency during the 2026-27 offseason. The Dodgers are in the highest tier of luxury tax penalization and face escalating penalties for exceeding the CBT threshold in at least three straight years. They’d owe a 110% tax on any contracts they absorb.

Latest On Rays’ Deadline Approach

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The Rays are among the more interesting bubble teams with the deadline eight days off. Tampa Bay entered today’s series finale with the Yankees at 50-49. They dropped the game 9-1, putting them back to .500.

Today’s loss knocked Tampa Bay five games behind the Royals, who hold the final Wild Card spot in the American League. The Red Sox and Mariners also sit between the Rays and the last playoff spot. They’re 10.5 back with three teams to jump in the AL East, so it’s almost certainly Wild Card or bust. A five-game deficit certainly isn’t insurmountable, but it’s not an easy gap to close either (especially with multiple teams to jump).

MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand tweeted last night that the Rays are expected to both buy and sell at the deadline. Presumably, that’d take the form of shopping players on more expensive salaries and/or a dwindling control window while exploring acquisitions of MLB-ready talent that could aid the Rays in a longer shot playoff push this season and contribute to the 2025 roster. Tampa Bay’s front office is plenty familiar with trying to strike that balance as they look to remain annually competitive despite bottom five player payrolls.

The Rays have no shortage of veterans who’d generate interest. The Rays had five players on MLBTR’s initial list of Top 50 trade candidates last week: Zack Littell, Zach Eflin, Pete Fairbanks, Randy Arozarena and Jason Adam. There’d be a ton of interest in Isaac Paredes if the Rays genuinely considered moving their All-Star third baseman. SNY’s Andy Martino wrote last week that the Rays are willing to listen on Paredes, though there’s nothing to suggest that’s more than the organization’s standard openness to talking about every player.

Brandon Lowe and Yandy Díaz are each making between $8MM and $9MM and would be appealing targets in a light infield market. Amed Rosario has had a nice rebound season after signing a surprisingly low $1.5MM free agent deal. He’s headed back to free agency next winter and offers multi-positional versatility and plus contact skills from the right side. Virtually every contender could squeeze him onto the roster and in their payroll ledger.

Tampa Bay certainly isn’t going to trade everyone from that group. The Rays have never been keen on completely tearing down the roster and embarking on multi-year rebuilds. They’re not far enough from the playoff mix to make that advisable regardless. Yet it’d be surprising if the Rays didn’t at least move one or two veterans. Rosario, as their only impending free agent of note, is the most obvious candidate. The front office is clearly willing to deal some players under team control beyond this season, as evidenced by their trade of starter Aaron Civale (who is eligible for arbitration for the final time next winter) to Milwaukee.

Patrick Mooney, Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon of the Athletic wrote this morning that the Rays could be more apt to trade players who are going yearly through arbitration than to deal those playing on guaranteed contracts. Arozarena, Paredes, Littell and Adam fall into the first bucket. Fairbanks, Díaz and Lowe have signed extensions, while Eflin joined Tampa Bay on a three-year free agent deal. There’s not much difference between players on guaranteed contracts versus arbitration salaries in practice, but The Athletic writes that the Rays could feel more of an obligation to hold the players who have committed to the franchise for multiple seasons.

While that’s a possible factor, it’d be surprising if the Rays drew too rigid a distinction. Tampa Bay traded Tyler Glasnow and Manuel Margot — each of whom had signed an extension — to the Dodgers last winter. Glasnow’s deal sent him close to home on the West Coast and came in conjunction with another extension with L.A.; the Dodgers flipped Margot to Minnesota within a few weeks. Tampa Bay traded Blake Snell within two years of signing him to a five-year extension back in December 2020.

Eflin ($11MM), Lowe ($8.75MM) and Díaz ($8MM) have the highest salaries among players on multi-year deals. Arozarena’s $8.1MM salary is by far the highest of Tampa Bay’s group of players on arbitration deals. Eflin will make $18MM next year in the final season of his backloaded contract. Díaz is set to make $10MM next season on a deal that has a $12MM team option for 2026. The Rays hold club options on Lowe (valued at $10.5MM and $11.5MM, respectively) for the next two seasons.

Arozarena is set to go through arbitration twice more, while Paredes is eligible for arbitration through the ’27 campaign. He’ll certainly be in line for a lofty raise on this year’s $3.4MM salary. Fairbanks, Adam, Rosario and Littell are all on modest salaries; Fairbanks’ $3.666MM figure is the highest of the bunch. All but Rosario are under contract or club control for at least another season.

If the Rays ultimately straddle the line between buying and selling, they’re fairly well positioned to deal from their rotation and infield. Shane Baz’s return from Tommy John surgery was one motive for the Civale trade. The Rays could welcome back Jeffrey Springs and Drew Rasmussen over the next couple months and will get Shane McClanahan back in 2025 — perhaps lessening the sting of a deal involving Eflin or Littell. Upper level infielders like Curtis Mead and top prospect Junior Caminero could make it easier to part with Lowe. That’s arguably also true of Paredes, although it’d have been an easier sell if Caminero hadn’t had two extended injured list stints in Triple-A this year because of quad issues.

Tampa Bay doesn’t have as much long-term stability in the outfield, particularly if they move Arozarena at some point. At catcher, they’ve gotten good production this year out of Ben Rortvedt but could still look for a clearer long-term answer. Tampa Bay’s typically excellent bullpen has been an unexpected issue this season, so that’s another area where the Rays may look to add.

How Will The Rays Approach The Deadline?

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The Rays enter tonight’s series finale against the Cubs sitting at the bottom of the AL East. They’re 32-36, within two games of the Red Sox and Blue Jays, but any chance they have of keeping pace with the Yankees and Orioles is gone. The Rays are four games out of the final Wild Card spot in the American League with four teams between them and the Twins.

While that deficit is hardly insurmountable, the Rays have played more poorly than their record indicates. They’ve been outscored by 63 runs, a worse run differential than the Angels’ -60 mark. Only the White Sox, Rockies, Marlins, and A’s — very likely the four worst teams in the majors — have been outscored by more than Tampa Bay has. The Rays are in the bottom third of the league in batting average and on-base percentage. Only the White Sox and Miami have a worse slugging output. Tampa Bay’s rotation is 20th in ERA; their bullpen is 23rd.

With that level of play around the roster, it’s fairly remarkable that they’re only four games under .500. That’s mostly attributable to a 12-5 record in one-run games. That’s not a pace that most teams can sustain over the course of a season, and it’s not as if the Rays have had a lights-out bullpen locking down every small lead.

As deadline season approaches, the Rays have played like a team that looks like it won’t have much choice but to sell. They certainly haven’t resembled a club that has made five straight trips to the postseason and was one of the best in the American League en route to 99 wins last year. Some measure of regression was probably inevitable. Tampa Bay entered the season without three of its top starters in Shane McClanahan, Jeffrey Springs and Drew Rasmussen. They traded their ace (Tyler Glasnow) before his final year under contract. Wander Franco had been the team’s best position player. There was no way to completely replace the production they were losing at shortstop with Franco on administrative leave while he faces sexual abuse charges in the Dominican Republic.

All that said, the front office probably didn’t anticipate the team struggling to this extent. Their issues go beyond the players who aren’t available. Randy Arozarena is hitting .174/.282/.317 over 266 plate appearances. Yandy Díaz won a batting title and finished sixth in AL MVP voting last season. He has a league average .255/.315/.375 slash line in a team-leading 295 trips to the plate. Harold Ramírez had a .313/.353/.460 showing in 122 games a year ago. He hit .268/.284/.305 with only one homer in 48 contests before being designated for assignment last week. Brandon Lowe missed six weeks with an oblique strain and hasn’t hit well in the 27 games he’s played.

There are similar stories on the pitching side. The Rays acquired Aaron Civale last summer to stabilize their injury-riddled rotation. The righty has been tagged for a 5.20 ERA across 14 starts. Zach Eflin has been solid — a 4.06 mark through 12 outings — but hasn’t performed at the level that earned him a sixth-place finish in last year’s Cy Young balloting. Pete Fairbanks had a few rocky outings early in the season (although he’s found his form since returning from the injured list in mid-May). Phil Maton, signed to pitch in a high-leverage role, has been hit hard.

Opposing teams have taken notice. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic wrote yesterday that other clubs are monitoring in case Tampa Bay decides to orchestrate a deadline sell-off. Rosenthal lists Arozarena, Brandon Lowe and Díaz as potential buy-low targets for other teams. That trio, not coincidentally, are three of the four highest-paid players on the Tampa Bay roster.

Rosenthal reports that the Rays have yet to seriously entertain selling, hoping the team will show signs of a turnaround. There’s still time for that to happen before the July 30 deadline. The Rays’ record in one-run games may not be sustainable, but it has prevented them from falling completely out of the playoff mix. The team hasn’t played well, yet there’s clearly more talent on the roster than they’ve shown through two-plus months.

Still, the Rays presumably won’t have qualms about moving veteran pieces if things do not improve over the next six weeks. Tampa Bay’s front office is accustomed to dealing stars even while the team is in contention, building a talent pipeline that generally keeps them competitive despite bottom five payrolls.

Arozarena is making $8.1MM in his second of four trips through the arbitration process. Lowe is making $8.75MM in the final guaranteed season of the extension he signed in Spring Training 2019. The team holds successive options at $10.5MM and $11.5MM (with a $1MM buyout) for the next two years. The Rays just extended Díaz during the 2022-23 offseason. He’s playing on an $8MM salary this year and will make $10MM next season. Tampa Bay holds a $12MM option for the ’26 campaign.

While no one from that group is playing up to their previous standards, they’d each have appeal on the trade market. Arozarena, who had been a well above-average hitter in every season before this one, would net a particularly strong haul. Díaz is a limited defender, but he combined for a .314/.406/.475 slash line between 2022-23. His $10MM salary for 2025 is still below market value. Lowe should have the lowest trade value of the group given his injury history, but he’s one of the game’s better offensive second basemen at his best. While the Rays are probably trending toward declining next season’s $10.5MM option, it provides some contractual upside if Lowe finds his stride in the second half.

The players of intrigue go beyond that trio of potential rebound targets. Third baseman Isaac Paredes has been the team’s best player in 2024. He’s raking at a .291/.371/.479 clip and should be on pace for his first All-Star nod. Paredes owns a .245/.341/.469 batting line in more than 1200 plate appearances since the Rays pulled him from the Tigers in the Austin Meadows trade. He’s playing on a $3.4MM salary this year after qualifying for early arbitration as a Super Two player.

Paredes is under team control through 2027. The Rays would need a huge haul to seriously entertain moving him, but there’s some chance with top third base prospect Junior Caminero waiting in the wings. Eflin is due $11MM this season (making him the highest-paid player on the team) and will collect $18MM next year. There’d be a lot of interest at that price point for a quality mid-rotation starter. Tampa Bay could get a modest return for Amed Rosario as a solid multi-positional player on a $1.5MM salary. There’d be varying levels of interest in Fairbanks, Jason Adam, Garrett Cleavinger and Shawn Armstrong among contenders seeking bullpen depth.

East Notes: Rays, Phillies, Nationals

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Several Rays players have come up in trade rumors recently, with the team currently set to run a payroll well north of $100MM, far higher than the $70MM to $90MM range they have sat in for the past three seasons. Among those trade candidates are Tyler Glasnow, whose $25MM salary makes him far and away the highest-paid player on the roster, and Randy Arozarena and Isaac Paredes, each of whom is sure to earn a sizeable raise in arbitration this winter.

However, president of baseball operations Erik Neander threw some cold water on the rumors surrounding Arozarena and Paredes on Monday. While the Rays seem to be actively shopping Glasnow, the executive clarified that the team is merely listening to offers for the left fielder and third baseman (per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times). Fielding trade proposals is simply standard operating procedure and a matter of due diligence for an MLB front office, especially for a team like Tampa Bay that is often highly active on the trade market.

That doesn’t mean either player won’t be traded this offseason, but it’s a meaningful distinction nonetheless. Arozarena and Paredes are still an excellent value in their early years of arbitration, and the Rays aren’t desperate to get either one off the books.

More news from around MLB’s East divisions…

  • Turning to the NL East, Alex Coffey of the Philadelphia Inquirer reports that the Phillies are planning to pick up a bullpen piece this offseason, and they’re also considering an outfield acquisition. It’s no surprise the Phillies are looking for another reliever, in light of Craig Kimbrel’s departure in free agency, but the note about an outfielder is slightly more revealing; after all, the three primary outfielders from the team’s 2023 postseason roster are all set to return in 2024. Indeed, with Nick Castellanos, Brandon Marsh, and Johan Rojas already on the roster, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski would only add another outfielder if he finds the “right fit” (as relayed by Coffey). Perhaps that means another impact bat to take over full-time duties in left field while Marsh platoons with Rojas in center.
  • While the Nationals aren’t likely to contend in 2024, president of baseball operations Mike Rizzo is still planning to improve the on-field product. “I think we’re going to be aggressive again this year looking for a bat that can play the corner infield, be it third base or first base or DH or left field, or a combination of all three of those,” the executive told reporters during the Winter Meetings. “And then we’ll resort back to getting more pitching” (per Mark Zuckerman of MASN). Of particular interest, Rizzo also mentioned that the team is prepared to offer multi-year contracts “in the right situation,” which isn’t always common for teams in the middle of a rebuild. Over the previous three offseasons, the Nationals have only signed one free agent to a multi-year deal: Trevor Williams, who signed a two-year, $13MM deal last December.
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