The 2020 campaign represented a major step in the right direction for the Padres, who clinched their first playoff berth since 2006 and advanced in the postseason for the first time since 1998. While things are no doubt looking up for the franchise, its offseason hasn’t come without some drastic changes in the early going. The team found out earlier this week that right-hander Mike Clevinger won’t pitch in 2021 after undergoing Tommy John surgery, and then executive chairman Ron Fowler stepped down from his role. Fowler’s exit leaves the Padres with a new control person in Ron Seidler.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Manny Machado, 3B: $240MM through 2028
- Eric Hosmer, 1B: $79MM through 2025
- Wil Myers, OF: $41MM through 2022 (including $1MM buyout for 2023)
- Drew Pomeranz, LHP: $22MM through 2023
- Mike Clevinger, RHP: $11.5MM through 2022
- Craig Stammen, RHP: $5MM through 2021 (including $1MM buyout for 2022)
- Pierce Johnson, RHP: $3MM through 2021 (including $1MM buyout for 2022)
Arbitration-Eligible Players
Note on arb-eligible players: this year’s arbitration projections are more volatile than ever, given the unprecedented revenue losses felt by clubs and the shortened 2020 schedule. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, who developed our arbitration projection model, used three different methods to calculate different projection numbers. You can see the full projections and an explanation of each if you click here, but for the purposes of our Outlook series, we’ll be using Matt’s 37-percent method — extrapolating what degree of raise a player’s 2020 rate of play would have earned him in a full 162-game slate and then awarding him 37 percent of that raise.
- Dan Altavilla –$700K
- Zach Davies – $7.2MM
- Greg Garcia – $1.6MM
- Dinelson Lamet –$2.5MM
- Emilio Pagan – $1.2MM
- Luis Perdomo – $1.0MM
- Tommy Pham – $8.0MM
- Matt Strahm – $1.6MM
- Non-tender candidates: Garcia, Perdomo, Pham
Option Decisions
- Declined 1B Mitch Moreland’s $3MM option in favor of $500K buyout
Free Agents
- Moreland, Garrett Richards, Trevor Rosenthal, Jurickson Profar, Kirby Yates, Jason Castro
The Padres are fortunate enough that they shouldn’t have to spend much time worrying about their catcher position or their infield in the coming months. In-season acquisition Austin Nola looks like the answer as the Padres’ primary backstop, though they may have to decide whether to deploy Francisco Mejia as his backup, use him as a trade chip and turn the role over to Luis Campusano, or shop for help from outside the organization. Other than that, the Padres look set with the superstar third base-shortstop tandem of Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr. on the left side of their infield and second baseman Jake Cronenworth and first baseman Eric Hosmer occupying the other positions. The main concern in that group is Tatis’ future, as the Padres have to worry about keeping him in the fold for the long haul with a contract extension. The two sides have already expressed interest in mapping out a long-term arrangement.
There is less certainty in the outfield, though the Padres appear to have their solution in center with Trent Grisham. Right fielder Wil Myers had a tremendous bounce-back year in 2020, but if the Padres had their druthers, perhaps they would move on from the pricey three seasons left on his contract in a trade. That looks unlikely unless San Diego takes back a similarly inflated contract, so Myers figures to remain with the team. While those two positions may be spoken for going forward, left field looks like less of a sure thing. The Padres could just keep Tommy Pham, but his production cratered during an injury-shortened 2020, and non-tendering him would save the Padres about $8MM. Meanwhile, Jurickson Profar – who played more games in left than any other Padre last season – is a free agent.
If the Padres say goodbye to Pham, there’s a case that they should just re-sign Profar, who had a respectable year. Otherwise, Michael Brantley, Joc Pederson, Brett Gardner and Robbie Grossman are among those they could target in free agency. Of course, more choices will become available when teams announce which players they’re non-tendering.
With Clevinger, Dinelson Lamet, Zach Davies and Chris Paddack comprising 80 percent of their starting staff, the Padres’ rotation seemed to be in enviable shape just a couple days ago. Their confidence probably took a hit Wednesday, though, with Clevinger’s out-of-nowhere TJ procedure. He won’t be a factor next year, but the Padres do still have most of their rotation settled with Lamet and Davies, who each broke out in 2020, and Paddack. They also feature MacKenzie Gore, Luis Patino, Adrian Morejon, Joey Lucchesi and Ryan Weathers as in-house options who could assume starting spots in 2021.
If the Padres don’t want to turn over spots to two members of that group, they’ll have plenty of free-agent possibilities. Southern California native Trevor Bauer is easily the cream of the crop, but signing him may require the Padres to hand out yet another nine-figure contract. More modest options include their own free agent, Garrett Richards, as well as Masahiro Tanaka, Jake Odorizzi, ex-Friar Corey Kluber, Jose Quintana and James Paxton, among others. The Padres also look like a realistic trade suitor for the Rangers’ Lance Lynn, who’s due a modest $8MM next year and whom his team seems likely to trade.
The bullpen may be an area of some emphasis in the offseason for the Padres, who could lose summer pickup Trevor Rosenthal in free agency. Former star closer Kirby Yates is also on the market, though he didn’t pitch much in 2020 because of injuries. That said, the Padres do have a lot of their 2021 bullpen already figured out with Drew Pomeranz, Emilio Pagan, Pierce Johnson, Matt Strahm and Craig Stammen set to reprise their roles. Austin Adams and Tim Hill are along among the veterans remaining in the mix, but it still wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Padres seek bullpen help from elsewhere. The big prize could be Josh Hader, whom the Brewers are open to trading; otherwise, in no particular order, Rosenthal, Yates, former Padre Brad Hand, Liam Hendriks, Blake Treinen, Trevor May, Jake McGee, Mark Melancon and Shane Greene are some late-game hurlers who should draw their share of interest in free agency.
With the Padres in the throes of a seemingly endless playoff drought at this time last offseason, general manager A.J. Preller had his back up against the wall a winter ago. Preller and the team he built found a way to deliver, though, and now the Padres look like a club that should contend again in 2021 with another productive offseason. The Padres are short on glaring holes, but there is at least room for improvement in their pitching staff and perhaps their outfield.
And here we go…
With Patino and Gore ready, getting any FA pitching just creates even greater depth. This org is in a great spot for the next handful of years
Neither has shown they can do it in the majors and obviously have no playoff experience. The Padres need a guy that has done both.
Hey, Gore and Patino have to start somewhere.
Yes, but a team that is trying to compete cannot start a season with needing a prospect can be a solution. It is irresponsible GMing. They should bring in a veteran to fill the spot, but have Gore/Patino/others able to compete to win it, if need be.
Yea but how are they ever going to know what they have? Wait until their next rebuild in 5-8 years? I get you need proven arms, but if you have two prospects that are both consensus top 10 prospects in baseball, you can’t just keep pushing them back. Unless they can trade one of them for a guy like deGrom, you’re not going to find much on the free agent market.
It’s a long season (in a normal year, that is). There are ample opportunities to get that big stud into his first major league game to see what he can do. If he does well, you can get him a spot start, use him in more meaningful games, and so on.
You’ve got to find out eventually whether you’ve got an ace, a future starter, a bullpen piece, or a scrub.
@mlb1225 … how about they actually “start” by pitching in AA?
How can they prove they’re ready unless they’re given the opportunity?
They undoubtedly will be given an opportunity. At the back of the rotation and as an injury replacement. I don’t think I have ever seen a rookie be asked to step in and front a rotation or even be a #2. That is what the Padres need with their #1 Clevinger out for 2021.
Don’t waste time Padre fan still thinks every prospect will be a good player
Patiño is NOT ready, and neither is Gore. Even if they were, it’s totally unrealistic to expect them to pitch winning, competitive baseball as rookies.
Once again, we need to add at least two quality starting pitchers with good track records. Unfortunately, Preller keeps trying to prove he has no aptitude for building and managing a Major League pitching staff, but nobody seems to notice.
I noticed! The last two seasons that I saw Preller as pitching ignorant! He gave up a 36 home run season player, Franmil Reyes, for a minor league outfielder who we didn’t really need proven by the fact that they traded him to Seattle a few months later. The worse point of that trade was that the Indians traded TREVOR BAUER to the Reds to get that minor league player so Preller could pass up on Bauer. We needed pitching at that time in late August 2019 and Preller trades for a minor leaguer instead of a seasoned pitcher? Coming off injury or not, a seasoned Bauer would have been a better trade. I said it then and I’m saying it now! It was obvious Preller is pitching ignorant. The other example of his incompetence was starting 2019 with unseasoned pitchers for all five starters expecting them to compete against the Dodgers. All three of those pitchers were basic busts! Even Paddock who was the best of them still hasn’t proven he can be a competitor against the Dodgers. And last but not least is his selection of ANDY GREEN! What a soft headed no talent manager! Look what Will Myers did after he left! Preller, your decisions cost Ron Fowler his position and you should have been out the door right behind him! Preller get lost!
How is Clevinger’s TJ surgery “out of nowhere” when he had elbow pain at the end of the season?
Cause they said neither player was looking at TJ.
Padres just lied the big question is why. Several players will regress like Myers, Hosner, Grisham, and Cronenworth, They all had great years far from normal, Hosner is getting old and the defense was terrible last year,
Hosmer will be 31 at seasons start, why do you assume regression, he’s a good player and isn’t too old.
31 is basically age where decline generally starts. And it’s not always gradual.
To be fair, Hosmer defense is terrible every year
Hosmer is a well known player. That doesn’t mean he is good.
Every year? His defense throughout his career has been overrated because of Gold Gloves, but he’s had some decent defensive seasons.
Since 2016, Hosmer has only had one season where he had at least 500 plate appearances and an OPS+ above 105.
Hosmer looked like chuckles the clown at 1st base.
In the playoffs he was a joke.
Hosmer is abysmal against lefties also
He’s 5 years removed from good postseason. Hosmer is 144 mil blunder free agent signing by Preller who loves wasting $
nontendering Pham because of an injury plagued short season seems like a horrible idea…even more so considering the other names available. $8 mil is not that much, especially if you get healthy Pham numbers.
They might want to allocate that money to Bauer and go with a cheaper option in the outfielder.
Do they really need to go after Bauer? Patino, Gore, Lamet, Paddack, and a combination of Davies/Morejon/Lucchesi/Weathers at the 5 spot seems strong enough that they don’t need to prioritize going after someone like Bauer. Sure losing Clev is losing an ace, but with so much young and strong depth Bauer would be a luxury. If they non-tender Pham, they should go after Brantley or Springer, or even possibly resign Brad Hand.
It was just a thought. Though if they want to really compete with LA, signing Bauer would be a big step in the right direction.
Besides, SD was my dark horse for signing Bauer and I can’t back off it yet.
Bauer would look great in a Padres uniform, and he would probably like to play on a good team, but I don’t think that the Padres will be able to afford his salary. Also, the Padres already have some pretty good starting pitching prospects, so I don’t think they really need to get a guy like Bauer.
If they non-tender Pham, they should get Brantley. He may be getting older, but he’s still a great defender in left and is really underrated offensively. The Padres could afford him if he gets anywhere near what MLBTR projects for him (2 years, $28 million).
Yeah, Brantley’s pretty good, but I think there will be competition to sign him, so I’m not sure he would go to the Padres. Keeping Pham guarantees that they will have a good player on their roster next year.
Pham was not good. He has been injured since 2019. Pham needs to go.
No one looks good in a Padres uniform. Those uniforms are terrible.
From a dodgers fan that plays in a dumpster of a stadium
They aren’t signing Bauer smarten up for once
That dumpster of a stadium will be hanging the mlb championship flag next season.
I love the Padres unis
It’s like nice rims on a rusted out pinto
Can we stop pretending that all of these first/second year pitchers and pitching prospects are going to immediately pitch lights-out baseball the moment they take a big league mound?
They will probably non tender Greg Garcia. GG is a great player but sort of lost his spot to Cronenworth.
“Great game player” GG
Pham will be 33. He will regress just because of age. He was originally injured while with the Rays and he has a degenerative eye condition. His eyes will never get better and visual acuity is a critical skill for batters. It was another poor trade for Preller. Pham should be jettisoned post haste.
Pham is only going to get worse, not better. When Preller traded for him, Pham was trying to avoid a TJ surgery, plus he’s got a degenerative eye condition. Combine that with the “little” injuries he had in a 60 game season, as well as his numbers when he was heathy, and you’ve got a guy that needs to move on.
Healthy? The guy has eye sight problems! Keep up Bro!
Guarantee you Pham will be on the Dodgers within 2 weeks if the Padres non-tendered him
Unless the DH happens he has no place on the Dodgers. He isn’t better than any of their starting OFs.
the Dodgers often move players around. Seager and Mookie are the only ones locked in at a position. Bellinger OF/1B, Muncy 1B/2B/3B, Pollock LF/CF, Lux 2B/SS, Taylor & McKinstry everywhere, even Smith and Barnes can play elsewhere if needed
I don’t think you know how the Dodger’s work. Identify your strengths and make them stronger.
Pham wouldn’t even be a top 3 RH hitting OF on the Dodgers but sure.
You can have him. He is the guy that did nothing for is in 2020
Dodgers wouldn’t go near Pham he’s a drama underperforming player that’s Preller speciality
Pham will never be a dodger. He couldn’t even be a back up out fielder on the Dodgers.
Get real.
Why does everyone keep saying “control person”? Isn’t he the new owner?
no
No, he’s the majority owner. They should more accurately call him the Managing General Partner.
Luis Campusano is in jail in Georgia right now after getting busted for felony marijuana possession. He might not be a factor anytime soon.
He surely bonded out by now.
No he isn’t. He was released the same day as the arrest. The charges were reduced to a misdemeanor by the outgoing DA and the incoming DA said he favors decriminalization in the campaign.
He could end up in prison, but let’s face it, he is going to get away with it, he has money
The Padres are in a nice spot that does not require any of the top-dollar acquisitions. Bauer would be great for 30 teams, but SD does not need him.
Trading for Lance Lynn is affordable and impactful. The rotation should be a strength, especially with someone like Lynn added.
Michael Brantley or Joc Pederson would be a nice supplement, especially if they non-tender Pham.
Plenty of relievers on the market, so the should be able to shore up that area without breaking the bank.
We’re not in a “nice spot.” We need starting pitching. That seems to be an annual thing with Preller.
Non-tender Pahm and sign Profar! Spend some money on Lynn or even Morton at minimum and see if Clevinger can convince Bauer to be teammates again. Spend some of the fans money on the team not on that TV station or downtown high rise condos!
Like never does a felony go away. After 1o years or whatever, he gets then MLB will suspend him for probably a year. More than likely his MLB career is over. dumb
What?
Campusano got arrested for felony marijuana possession is Georgia. However, I believe the charges have since been lowered to a misdemeanor, so I don’t think it will be much of an issue. Also, MLB has recently taken marijuana off of their list of banned substances, so I don’t think he will be suspended at all.
How very civilized…
did they get lowered for sure or is that speculation? I guess I should google it
I think I read somewhere that it got moved to a misdemeanor but now I can’t find the link. The new DA in Augusta, Georgia ran for election on a platform that included decriminalizing marijuana, so the charges should get dropped/lowered anyways.
Yeah, it’s illegal in most states but it’s not an illegal substance according to MLB.
Dude, pass the bong please.
He had 2.8 ounces of weed and three vape cartridges. FELONY.
The charges against Campusano were reduced to a misdemeanor already and the new DA favors decriminalization so there likely will not be any jail time. It was a stupid move on his part, but not one that will derail his career.
Who else wants to see an incentive laden 1 year deal for Yates and a 2 year deal for maybe 15 ish for Hand to “get the band back together”!!
I’ll go for that one!
Now healthy Jose Castillo figures to be a big part of the Padres’ bullpen next season.
I keep forgetting about him, he was nasty when healthy. Hopefully he stays that way this year
My dream offseason would see the Padres bring back Yates on a one-year deal, sign another reliever like Hand or Rosenthal, bring back Profar to play left/second if Cronenworth struggles, move Pham to full-time DH, and sign a low-cost high upside starting pitcher like Corey Kluber to potentially fill Clevinger’s spot in the rotation.
Dan as Pads fan since 1988, I must say that I agree with Profar in left even though I didn’t like the trade when it happened. Proven wrong I’d like him back if it would be reasonable 2 years at 12-15 maybe? Pham however, should be cut loose to use his 8m to sign Profar. DH cant be counted on and Pham, who I loved in that trade, proved me wrong and now I wish him the best in his next career. Lastly, I think a Kluber incentive laden deal similar to Yates would be welcome.
I understand why people like Profar more than Pham, given that Profar had a much better year with the Padres. However, Pham got unlucky this year with COVID and his broken hand, and I don’t think 30 bad games is enough to completely give up on him. He has been one of the best on-base guys in baseball over the past couple years. I’d like to see the Padres bring back both him and Profar, as they are both good players who could really help the Padres next year.
I’m very confident that there will be a DH next year, but even if there isn’t, I think Profar would still provide value as a utility player/injury replacement while Pham could stay in left.
Pham will be 33 years old. He was never a great fielding OF. That will get worse with age. He was injured in Tampa originally and that a sprained UCL in his right elbow persisted and then he broke his hand. Those are the types of injuries that older players see more often. He has a degenerative eye condition which means each year his eye sight deteriorates. Then the idiot went to a strip club and got stabbed. He won’t get $5 million in free agency. The Padres should non-tender him and spend some of the $35-40 million they are going to have to spend this offseason on a younger and better LF.
The old non-tender Tommy Pham tell.
Right on! Bro!
The list shows Myers signed through 2022 but the article says the Padres are on the hook for 3 more seasons. Which is it?
Myers is guaranteed $40 million for 2021 and 2022, with a team option for another $20 million in 2023 with a $1 million buyout.
2.5 million buyout for 2023, I think is the reason.
Darvish for Patino and Head? Who says “No?” As a Cubs fan, I say “Yes!!”
You’ll never get Preller to give you Head.
I see what you did there.
Lol
As a Padres fan, I’d like to see that happen. However, I don’t think the Padres would be willing to take on Darvish’s salary, so I think the Padres would say no.
What if the Cubs take back Myers and, in doing so, the Cubs get Wilcox as well? So Darvish for Myers, Patino, Wilcox, and Head. I know it won’t happen, but I can dream.
Cubs say no. Darvish is a proven #1 with 3 years left on his contract.
His value will never be greater, which is why you consider trading him.
But the Cubs are at best winning their division in the NL Central in 2021 even with Darvish (they’re not better than the Padres, Dodgers, and Braves) and then falling off a cliff heading into 2022. I think they have to get creative if they want sustainable success after 2021.
I agree. Darvish will never be a hotter commodity than now. The Cubs would be foolish not to listen to offers for him
I don’t think campusano will be playing for the padres in 2021
Why. His charges were already dropped to a misdemeanor and MLB removed marijuana from its banned substance list. He will pay a fine and some community service and that will be that.
The Cuban OF Ona is much better than Pham and Profar together ,honestly
That’s a bold statement. Honest question, why do you think that?
Oña has 12 MLB at bats. He’s a decent prospect, I’m intrigued by him, based on his minors stat lines but Pham and Profar are legit.
Profar is legit as long as he isn’t playing 2B. lol
Yip, I mean yup
Exactly correct!
Me too,but To occupy the fourth in the line-up in the youth world cup, where were Alvarez (Astros), Robert (white sox) of the Cuba team, you have to be too good
Me too,but To occupy the fourth in the line-up in the youth world cup, where were Alvarez (Astros), Robert (white sox) of the Cuba team, you have to be too good
I don’t think Ona is a decent prospect, we have to give her opportunities and see, if PROFAR hits 234 for life, why not ????
Me too,but To occupy the fourth in the line-up in the youth world cup, where were Alvarez (Astros), Robert (white sox) of the Cuba team, you have to be too good
I don’t think Ona is only a decent prospect, we have to give him opportunities and see, if PROFAR hits 234 for life, why not ????
As a Phillies fan, we have a big hole in CF. Roman Quinn can’t stay healthy. Adam Haseley needs to get those AAA at bats he hasn’t had as yet, and Odubel Herrera is persona non gratis.
So I’d like to see my Phillies sign Profar to play CF. CBP is a small yard, so playing CF in Philly is a lot easier than Petco. I like Profar a lot. He’s still on the young side, and it wasn’t too long ago he was rated the #1 prospect by Baseball Prospectus.
Profar sucks. he’s the last player I want on this team if they fancy themselves contenders.
Profar started our terrible on the a Padres in 2020. He rebounded into average. At times he was exciting to watch
You are way off!
Doubt if Profar can handle CF
Correct!
hope i was right on Bauer to NYM vs SDP, because if i wasnt my whole prediction structure falls to pieces
Big call on Pham, and the back end of the bullpen needs addressing. But except for that, the team is set.
It’s time to see what we have in store with Gore.
The team is “set?” You might want to look at the pitching situation.
Who said the team is set? Certainly not me. We need Profar to fill LF. We still need a catcher to back up the team and Nola, a 2 year catcher. We have no starting pitchers beyond Davies and possibly Lamet if healthy. Paddock…. a BIG maybe? We could use 2 vets who can lead and help the young pitchers to victory.
Lamet is a bulldog of the highest magnitude. Sky’s the limit for that kid.
Real bulldog 256 innings pitched 3 years will be 29
You know that number is misleading.
Was called up in 2017, mid year.
Went under the knife for TJ surgery in 2018…
Missed the entire year and part of 2019
Played in 2019
Played in 2020 shortened season.
The #’s for long hair are the #’s
So are you saying that Lamet isn’t worth having on this team?
It’s foolish to depend on a pitcher with a history of injuries! Yes keep him but quit betting the farm system on him!
I would like to see Gore in the rotation. We could trade for another starter. And/Or can acquire a free agent starter. This might be a good year to go with a six man starting rotation. The Padres should win a lot of games with a good, healthy starting rotation.
“A lot of games”
@Dave … Gore is a prospect. He has 21.2 innings in AA, and those innings showed he’s still got to learn and develop against good hitters. He’s not ready. And nether is Patiño (it was stupid to bring him up).
Here’s the take on Tommy Pham from someone who followed him closely from the minor leagues through the Cardinals (I live in St. Louis) to the Rays and then to the Padres.
1) His degenerative eye condition stabilized almost 10 years ago; it will not get worse
2) Until this year he was rated as one of the best outfielders in baseball; rated 3rd best left fielder going into this year; San Diego did not get to see that due to COVID followed by the hand injury. The Rays – with Tommy, Austin Meadows, &; Kevin Kleimeier – had the best defensive outfield in the AL in 2019..
3) He is extremely dedicated and hard-working; if he is healthy (as in 2017 when he was the Cerdinals MVP despite spending the first in the minors and became the first Cardinal in their history to have ≥ 20 HR, 20SB, .300 BA, .400 OBP, & .500 Slugging %;; had a good 2018 (> 100 runs) & an excellent 2019.) It is likely 2020 was an anomaly for reasons specified above and – if healthy – he will be well worth the salary in SD or elsewhere.
You cannot hang your hat on injuries! Not to mention an aging player who spends time at Pacers around guys who have knives. You must have missed the couple of plays in left where he obviously missed seeing the ball. Not to mention seeing hot Dodger pitching! The “X” factor is this… when a player feels he fits on a team and a coach encourages his talent, he’s at his best! Without that, the player just keeps struggling! Look at Myers and dumb-face Andy Green! How about the catcher we traded to Seattle, Luis Torrens, who started more games (70) and hit 257 after he got there!
“Degenerative” conditions may slow down, but they always get worse.
Tommy hit .273 against the Dodgers and ..367 on the 2019 and 2020 postseasons for the Rays and the Padres. Can’t comment on the stabbing incident but I can about his outfield play. Having watched the majority of games he played for the Cardinals, Rays, and Padres he always played very hard and has been a well above average outfielder for his entire career. Yes, there were a few misplays for the Padres, but he also made some great catches in the limited time he played this year.
Doesn’t explain the history of an injury prone aging player. Use that money for a younger Profar and the rest on proven pitching!
To be fair about what you said if the Pads sign Pham this year I sincerely hope he plays as well as he did in 2017. I do want the Padres to beat out the Dodgers and show some fire here in San Diego.
Well said Michael. I agree. He will certain try.