San Diego Padres GM A.J. Preller unsurprisingly expressed interest in signing superstar shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. to a long-term extension. Tatis has interest as well, though the two sides haven’t yet begun negotiations, per MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell. Preller did suggest that negotiations could kick off before too long, however.
There aren’t a ton of pertinent precedents for a potential Tatis extension, but there is one. Braves superstar centerfielder Ronald Acuña Jr. signed a 8-year, $100MM contract extension with the Braves after one season in the majors. Acuña was coming off a Rookie of the Year season in which he slashed .293/.366/.552 for 4.2 rWAR in his age-20 season.
Acuña’s deal is largely viewed as a bargain, and Tatis could arguably that he’s off to an even more impressive start to his MLB career. Tatis produced 4.1 rWAR over just 84 games as a 20-year-old in 2019. This year he provided an appropriate step up as he posted 2.5 rWAR, roughly the equivalent of 6.75 WAR over a full 162-game season. Through 143 career games, Tatis owns a triple slash of .301/.374/.582.
The two situations are analogous, however, as both Tatis and Acuña have led their teams back into the postseason at a young age. They’re also two of MLB’s brightest and most popular stars. Tatis now has more major league service time than Acuña did at the time of his deal, however, raising the price of any potential contract agreement. Tatis Jr. won’t be arbitration eligible until 2022, with free agency set for following the 2024 season. Both players debuted in their age-20 season, and both players field premium up-the-middle positions. Both Tatis and Acuña have also galvanized their fan bases during their short time in the majors.
There haven’t been many extensions signed this season league-wide, which is partially due to the revenue lost because of coronavirus and the uncertainty of future revenue streams. But there also hasn’t been a ton of time for these sorts of negotiations, notes Preller. As the playoffs wind to a close, teams may again have a moment to explore their internal options. The Padres would certainly love to extend Tatis Jr., but again, it would be rare for a player of his caliber to sign this early. Tatis Jr. is represented by MVP Sports Group, who also reps teammate Manny Machado.
Give him $200M over 10 years and call it a day.
No way he takes that and go into free agency as a 31 year old. 8 years seems abour right.
If he would take that, Padres write the check immediately.
Not entirely without shame, the Braves got Acuna to sign an 8 year/$100 million contract and two team options for 2027 & 2028. The Braves and especially Acuna’s agent got a fare amount of criticism for how bad the contract was for Acuna. So um ya..a 10 year $200 million contract doesn’t sound so crazy.
Yeah but that’s a potentially historically bad team friendly contract.
I completely agree. I wasn’t just being rhetorical when I said not entirely without shame. In light of that self sided contract, 10 years $200 million is more than twice as good as Acuna’s.
Since the Padres didn’t manipulate Tatis’ service time like the Braves did with Acuña, they need to get him signed for less to make up for it.
And that’s not to mention Acuña had a ROY under his belt when Atlanta extended him and Tatis has a notable injury history.
So because the Padres didn’t manipulate Tatis service time like Atlanta they can give him a worse contract? Not exactly reasoning from the position of moral high ground, are ya? =)
Yes they can. Or at least should.
You don’t seem to understand how leverage works
Let’s see if Tatis can play 150 games in 2021 without going on the IL and the same for 2022. Then negotiate an eight year deal for $200M.
He only has four more years of control, right?
Should be 5
Probably would get at least $50M for his three arb years.
If he is smart Tatis shouldn’t accept anything less than $10m, $15m and $20m in his three arbitration years. Any less than that and I’d just go year to year. I certainly wouldn’t allow Preller to have him under contract into his free agency years like Acuna’s abysmal contract. Especially since he will probably receive a new all time record contract given his career so far.
That’s easy to say when you’re not the one being guaranteed 100-200+ MM. I think he could get every bit of that, but an injury could derail all that money incredibly quickly, and that’s the leverage teams have with offering less for a long term at this stage.
Your point, however, is very valid.
I get that. But barring a horrific injury it’s hard to imagine he is going to have significantly less production by the time he’s 26. Unless he suddenly becomes as undisciplined as Puig, Tatis will likely only get better over the next decade or so. It’s way too early to determine but he has a chance of being one of the best SS of all time if he can stay healthy long term.
Yeah, people don’t seem to understand the idea of guaranteed money. Everyone looks at it like a video game.
He could snap his forearm in half sliding into 2nd tomorrow. He could destroy his knee on a diving catch. He could gets the yips. Who knows. Could he make more if he continues to be anywhere close to what he has been, of course. But what if…
I always said if I had made it, I would be the guy that is trying to sign a 12 year contract ASAP. Give me a guaranteed incredible financial future with a life that I’d never have to worry about money versus just hoping I stay healthy and great and make more over time.
Life would be just fine with 10-20 MM. 100 to 200 MM is insane. I don’t get how you chance that money in a profession that can change based on age and injury. This isn’t a business job where you know what you are. This is sports.
Tell that to Mookie Betts. It’s highly unlikely he will have an injury like that given how much the Padres are likely to protect him from risks. When was the last time a player of his ilk had anything like that happen to him. Maybe Jose Fernandez, but that was a freak accident off the field. Sure it’s silly to think of the difference in one guy’s life between having $200m and $400m. But it means a hell of a lot to the union to set new highs and increase the overall average pay so that the non-superstars who make a fraction of that amount can argue for a little more.
Well lets be fair. Mookie Betts signed an extension because of the market’s uncertainty. He could have quite possibly gotten more had the pandemic not struck. Right now, guaranteed money is looking pretty good to a lot of people even if its less than they wanted.
If you’re telling it to Mookie Betts, try and make sure you pass it along to Grady Sizemore while you’re at it. He had 4 consecutive seasons playing at a star level with at least 157 games in each season. It wasn’t until his age 26 season that his body completely fell apart and he never got that big payday.
If you want a more recent example then just look at Kris Bryant. If he had signed a big money extension early in his career then he would be set right now. Instead, he is facing a make or break year. If he is either injured or ineffective next year, his prospects aren’t looking too good
Yeah, I’ll take 200 MM and not worry about the union. Not my job to get others paid. One injury and I could go 3 years of renewable minimum contracts and a year of arb before the league gives up on me versus being set for life, plus future generations.
No one forced Acuna to sign that contract. He has his advisors, he knew what he was signing.
Didn’t say he was forced, but it wasn’t a good deal then and it looks even worse now. Albies signed a team friendly deal because of health risks, but Acuna, like Tatis, had a chance to set a new all time contract for players and unlike Albies doesn’t have a screw in his elbow (and is a much more productive player). The contract he signed should have been the starting number for his negotiation. His last 5 years of that contract should be worth at least $15-30m. There’s almost no way that deal doesn’t work out incredibly well for the Braves and dramatically reduces the amount he could make in his career.
@YankeeJames-You do realize that Tatis gets no say in how much he makes in arbitration right? An ARBITRATOR decides how much he makes. He can either play for the amount that the arbitrator decides or he can not play and not gain any more service time towards free agency.
LOL yeah and right now he’s on pace to set new highs for each year of arbitration. He just had a nearly 7 war season at age 21. That’s not a tough case to make to an arbitrator.
Also that’s not even really true. Before it gets to an arbitrator Tatis would negotiate with the team to try to find middle ground. Maybe don’t lecture people if you don’t know what you’re talking about.
Is there a problem YankeesJames? What you said was you would take $10, $15 and $20 million per year in your 3 arbitration years or you would go year to year. So it doesn’t sound like you understood that Tatis is ALREADY ON A YEAR TO YEAR CONTRACT. He will be for his arbitration years as well. He HAS NO CHOICE in the matter! So maybe don’t try talking down to me when you obviously have no idea what you are talking about?
Yikes Javia. You didn’t understand what I was saying at all. I said he shouldn’t accept more than that amount within an extension IN PLACE of his arbitration year to year amounts in which he would almost certainly surpass those amounts in each year. lol but good try moron.
Apparently the only problem seems to be with your ability to understand what I said.
“He shouldn’t accept MORE than that amount.”
Maybe learn to communicate intelligibly before you start criticizing others?
Javia- if you didn’t underatand his point, you’re thick and should work on reading comprehension. It was clear as day.
I understood yankeesjames just fine.
Its too early in his career and he is injury prone, give it another year first.
Calling it now, it’ll take 8 years $140M a year. He‘ll make $5M more every year roughly from years 2-7 of the contract and on year 8 $35M. $140M for a potential franchise legend’s entire 20s is only a risk if he gets hurt a lot (which he might).
My guess: 8 years, $200 million.
$10M signing bonus
2021 $2M
2022 $11M
2023 $16M
2024 $21M
2025-8 $35M per year
Do they do that if they’re the Padres though? There’s no discount at all there for them in the free agent years so why bother? I’d be happy to lock in the arb years for cost certainty, but then I want some discount (maybe $25-30 mil per) for the free agent years. It’s way too big of a risk (injury, form, the league figuring him out and him not adjusting) to be handing out free agency value on a player this short into his career. There needs to be give from Tatis’ side that acknowledges the Padres risk on a long term contract. My guess is closer to 8/140mil.
Rendon got 36 AAV, correct? Trout too I believe. There’s no reason to assume that number for superstars is dropping significantly if you signing a contract 8 or less years (arbitrary number I admit).
But my point is look at Manny, Betts, Harper… if you get over a decade, you aren’t paid the same AAV as if you sign for 6-7 years of Arenado and Rendon
Anyways, Tatis, in 4 years, could possibly be a 40M/year player. There’s gonna be a lot of big AAVs handed out in 2 years to that elite crop of SS, who knows where the market settles. In perfect padre world, he then comes to FA 2 years after that with better numbers than Báez/Story/Seager/Correa etc
You could argue, If Rendon at 3b is Worth 36M, Tatis at SS and similar offense, is 4M more a year insane?
The one thing we know, is stars love to top the AAV, total dollars or both of the people before them. It’s reasonable to think that number for SS will be/could be higher than the AAV of 3B
I see your point on the free agent years. Then I would think it could end up split down the middle ($50 million total for first 4 years and then 30 Million per year for four free agent years). That’s 8/$170MM.
It’s hard to compare to Rendon though because there’s no arbitration component to that deal. Tatis is necessarily going to have an AAV that’s less than that because he has 1 pre-are year remaining and 3 trips through arbitration.
Mookie Betts went $1M, 10M, 20M, 27M through those last 4 years of team control so let’s just use that as a benchmark. That’s just shy of $60M so even if Tatis got 40M per on 4 more years, the AAV would be ~27.5M.
Only way he can get an AAV of $40M per year is if he waits to sign until he’s at the end of his deal, which he could totally do but in the context of an extension I don’t see it.
@CN, sorry if not clear. the 36-40M I mentioned is specifically for his free agent seasons
I put my opinion below, but said 10/20/30 for his 3 arb, and 5M for pre-arb+signing bonus(that last # I admit is arbitrary, I explain others below)
140M for 7 years
Not a FA until 2025. He’s gonna get $PAID$
Covid shouldn’t affect this at all. You can always backload once you agree on the total figure. And if Tatis is smart (he gives no indication he isn’t),, he’ll low ball 2022 because of a likely strike.
This will be very expensive. huge risk for Padres with 4 years of control
Imo, Tatis doesn’t sign into his 30s. Limits his potential for another big deal. 8 years is Max He’ll sign, to me. They can offer whatever they want, I just don’t see him signing into his 30s without a chance to opt out and reset his AAV as market climbs
Also, I don’t see him taking less than 105M for 3 years of free agency (35M/per). Realistically I think he will demand 37-38M/yr, claiming market will climb, he’s possibly better than Arenado/Rendon, etc.
Bellinger got 11M in year 1 with a ROY+MVP in 3 years. I would be surprised if he would pass that without that hardware. So 9-10M Max year 1, maybe 18-20M max year 2(if great this whole time), and 30M year 3? It’s usually less than FA values so I struggle to see him going over 30M in arb with only 3 years
He’s got a pre arb season, im going to loop a signing bonus there
Let’s say 5M+10+20+30+38+38+38+38= 217/8?
There’s not a lot of reason for Tatis to give up FA years if he’s not compensated. His trajectory earning potential is just massive
One pause for Padres could be, Tatis has never had a sustained slump in the majors. Yes, because he’s been great. But it will happen eventually. Happens to everyone. Do they want to see how he does with his first major adjustment? Eventually teams are just gonna stop giving him heat up in the zone.. or anything up. We shall see
Don’t sign an Acuna Jr. extension!
I would. Acuna is underpaid
I get your point, and I do agree, but man would I love to be ‘underpaid’ $100 million!
He has to. Otherwise what was the point in Preller swatting that free year of control to the ground?
Padres should buck convential thinking on contract structure. Front load it.
8 years 160 mill, or 20 mill a year. FA at 29.
30 mill in 2021
30 mill in 2022
30 mill in 2023
25 mill in 2024
15 mill in 2025
10 mill in 2026
10 mill in 2027
5 mill in 2028
5 mill in 2029
A lot of guys hit FA in 2024 and beyond. Pay him early while other guys are in pre arb and arb years. As they get closer his price drops.
If padres are out of contention in 2026 and beyond he becomes a highly coveted trade piece due to minimal financial commitment to him.
Especially if they aren’t sure how long the window is, it’s not a horrible idea by any means, it’s quite smart… but it depends on one thing imo
just devil advocate here… But if suddenly they are paying Manny+Tatis 30M, Hosmer+Myers ~20Mish?.. 100M on 4 guys and none of them pitchers- will they spend enough to add the additional pieces. Again, like pitching
Or does it become Colorado or Chicago where they spent their money too quickly and then got kinda stuck not wanting to stretch the books further? I know the kids are coming strong, but I think we all can agree it’s quite risky to have Clev+ four pre-arb guys, and expect them to all hold up to the rigors and ups and downs of 162
But if they are gonna go to 175M+. No problem. Haha
I see Myers as a trade candidate.
They have guys who are rule 5 eligible they are probably looking to trade. Could attach them to Myers to unload the money.
I’ve been an advocate of two years for Pederson and 1 for Pillar
2021 Pham, Grisham, Pederson/Pillar
2022 Pederson/Ona, Grisham, and a 1 year stop gap
2023 – Grisham with Ona, Abrams. Head, Mears possibly forming a long term OF.
Rotation wise
2021 – Davies, Lamet, Clevinger, possibly Paddack. if not two veteran arms at the back end (Fiers, Wood, Ray stick out).
2022 – Lamet, Clevinger, Gore, Patino, possibly Paddack or veteran from 2021.
2023- Lamet, Gore, Patino, Weathers, possibly Wilcox.
There’s options out there for them to help keep costs down.
I just don’t see a team giving up value to take on myers @20M. Maybe they can convince someone to take some of his contract now with a decent 2020, albeit a short season.
But I’d be surprised to see them either A. Not have to send money back or B. Not have to Attach other assets to entice team
Money will be at an all time tightness around the game this year. And Yeah the Padres have tried to dump him every year, So he’s in the rumors, but that doesn’t mean teams look to him as a “target”. It usually was SD trying to get rid of him+ some amount of the contract
Who do you think is willing to pay Myers 20M?
Do you think teams will buy into the last 60 games over the last 4 years in SD? Maybe, I guess
It’s way easier to plan the 2021 Padres if you have the extra 20M to play with, but idk that teams are going to see him as a target that they want to pay, let alone also give up talent
The Padres have nobody currently in their system to replace Myers with. Head, Hassell and Mena could all be big time OF prospects but they are all several years away. I seriously doubt the Padres will trade Myers right now as that would just end up opening up a new major hole on the team that would need filling.
Tatis, Jr. has been good, but let’s hold off on superstar status until he plays more than 100 games in a season. Yeah, he is going to be a star and I agree with several of the above comments that he should wait on a long term deal. It would benefit him to wait if he does, indeed, become a superstar type player. It would benefit the Padres to wait in case Junior burns out fast like his father. Junior compares favorably to his father, but his father ended up a wash after a couple of good years.
I absolutely agree Jerry. There’s risk on both sides signing this deal so early
His dad had one good year at the age of 24. His next best seasons were average at best. Not a good comparison.
Agree. I had to check. I thought Dad had a couple of good years. I stand corrected, thank you.
If Junior turns out to be what everyone thinks, I still say he should hold off.
I would like to see him put in a legit season of 150+ games to really show off his stuff, but that is more up to Covid-19 than anything for now.
The guy lead the league in exit velocity as a SS. He’s special.
It has to be for Acuña/Albies money to make up for swatting that guaranteed year of control to the ground back in March of 2019.
Acuna / Albies literally have NOTHING to do with Tatis…… NOTH ….ING!
He’d be out of his mind to sign for longer than 6 or 7 years. That would still get him 80-100m+
If he signs a 7 year deal he’ll still hit the FA market at 28, that’s plenty of prime left to make another big deal. It really depends on the dollar value he’s getting for those FA years, if it’s like guaranteed $30 to $35 per years 7 and 8, then I totally think that length is realistic.
No it wouldn’t. If you only get one to two FA years, no reason to give up much money if you b are the team.
Unless you think you are saving money on his arb years, sure
I thought they were just referring to hair extensions.
Theres also a great option here for Sd that I dont think anyone has touched on ;
Do Nothing
If there giving him an AAV of around 35 waiting isnt going to drive up that price much more than they are already paying- Sure they risk him walking early but they got a good young core, money to spend when the arb yrs are up ready, and its a great city to live in (especially if its a good team). It would be a caculated risk but one that takes out all the financial risk and gets you the same results in the end if he signs anyway later (would even help the payroll a bit these next 2-3 yrs) while Meyers remains and before Hos goes down to a stomachable 13 per
I think hes def better than Kris Bryant but a collaspe down to mortal (not 35+AAv) isnt outta the realm of possibilty – Look no further than Bryants teamate Baez for another good example
Who knows what will happen in the world by 2025…I think after this crazy year owners have to really value the ability to stay (fluid) run out arb years and take these things a little slower than usual
I really think BIG guaranteed Money isnt going to be handed out quite as easily as many think here- Tatis def falls into the *maybe exception category though
I wouldnt use Mookie Betts as any kind of benchmark to what we will see in days soon to come- Mookie was unique in that La has been saving for a player like this for years and they are one of only few markets than can come near a deal lke this- Then there was also the trade package that left to obtain him furthering the pressure-
Lastly Mookie is in a whole diffferent tier than Machado Harper- Im not saying the owners will collude, there just going to be smarter knowing that there is so little competition vying to pay these big contracts anymore
It doesn’t really get you the same results later though. If he’s perennially the MVP contender that he was this year then you’re probably going to end up with him setting a record for pay in his final arb year. Could be like $30M based on what Mookie got. If you negotiate that now and give him certainty and guaranteed money for FA years then that amount can be a mutually agreed upon lower value.
Plus if he keeps playing this way you might not be able to get an AAV in the ~30 millions for the free agency years in 4 years when he hits the market. He might want a 10+ year deal with 40M+ AAV so then if you want his age 26-29 seasons you’re going to pay more for them and you’re also going to lock yourself into also paying for his mid-thirties as well.
It’s obviously a risk to lock him up for like 8 years now because he could drop off, but that’s a risk on the flip side for Tatis too.
Totally agree risk on both sides but what (Im trying ) to say I guess is I think the pendulum is swinging towards the owners here-
In my scenario today I think your almost paying full price to begin with on an extension- Your point on extending now gets younger years than later is def valid but this guys so young as it is right now even signing an 8 yr mega deal at the end of arb only puts him out to 35
The only thing I can think of is he might feel disrespected if not offered at least a firm extension number in the next couple years (if not this offseason) and he walks bc of that- I think that narrative gets overplayed though, like I said great city, good young team, money avail later….. We are always weighing risk/reward I jut wanted to shine the other side of the coin that I didnt see anyone make yet here……..
I know personally with My dodgers and Belli they probably have an open discussion but Belli has to realize it might take a second until guys like Kenley Kelley Pollock Price fall off in the next 2-3 years to get something done – Sd already has 1 “ME FIRST ” guy in Machado it would be nice if Tatis played ball wit them a little to help the club out till Meyers is off and Hos goes down to 13 per
* Not to mention Seager looming as well after next year
Yeah I totally get that, in general terms paying full market value for extension years that’s not really ideal for the team. I would just hope they’re at least getting arb years discounted or some accommodation for guaranteeing salary ~8 years out.
I think with LAD it’s more complicated because Belli is already getting expensive and they have more big contracts that they need to fall off. Machado money is going nowhere, so in SD it’s really just the Myers deal and Hosmer’s salary eventually dropping that come into play. LAD has big money owed to Kershaw, Price, Jansen, Pollock next year. Might need to pay up again for Kershaw too, plus Seager, so more mouths to feed I guess.
Tatis is making league minimum right now, so even if SD extends Tatis he’s not going to get major money until Myers salary falls off the books anyway. Whereas Belli is already earning $11.5M with 3 more trips through Arb. so it’s pretty imperative that they line the big pay day up for when Jansen/Price/Pollock are gone.
Calling paydays “big” is relative to a teams spending threshold
For Ex, yeah, David Price will make 15M or so next year. But that’s what the Dodgers paid Rich Hill from 17-19 to be a 4/5. So imo, LA doesn’t look at that as big money
Pollock makes less than Price and has shown this year what healthy pollock can do. Again hard to be upset with 2 more years of that
Kenley has 20M and then is gone, certainly not coming back at 20M. CK likely has a lower aav in his next deal as well
Most important for LA, is aside from Mookie, they have zero guaranteed dollars after 2022. They have a bunch of decisions of players coming in next few years, sure, but clean books. Also, LA has paid the luxury tax repeatedly and was going to do so in 2020 pre pandemic. There’s no hard cap on them like some other teams arbitrarily place on themselves. La has set themselves up remarkably well to be players in the free agent market or to keep any player they want
Bellinger will be paid eventually, absolutely. Seager seems to be Back on that tract too. But I think LA has planned for years for these decisions
I see healthy Pollock on the bench for the second day in a row at the moment – Reminds me of last year game 5 vs Wash
A RHP that throws a lot of fastballs is the perfect Joc matchup. He also had 4 hits last night. Hard for me to fault anyone for that decision
Yea and the day before….???,,,,
And game 5 last year vs Wash…
The excuses never run out for Pollock, ill never understand it
There are few things funnier than fans opining about player-ownership contract negotiations
Semantics Padres can say we tried then the trade clock starts ticking