What was supposed to be a win-now Rangers club finished with one of MLB’s worst records, so 2021 is now looking like a re-evaluation and rebuilding year in Arlington.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Elvis Andrus, SS: $28MM through 2022
- Rougned Odor, 2B: $27MM through 2022 (includes $3MM buyout of 2023 club option)
- Kyle Gibson, RHP: $17MM through 2022
- Jose Leclerc, RHP: $9.5MM through 2022 (includes $750K buyout of 2023 club option; contract also contains 2024 option)
- Lance Lynn, RHP: $8MM through 2021
- Jordan Lyles, RHP: $7MM through 2021
- Joely Rodriguez, LHP: $3MM through 2021 (includes $500K buyout of 2022 club option)
Arbitration-Eligible Players
Note on arb-eligible players: this year’s arbitration projections are more volatile than ever, given the unprecedented revenue losses felt by clubs and the shortened 2020 schedule. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, who developed our arbitration projection model, used three different methods to calculate different projection numbers. You can see the full projections and an explanation of each if you click here, but for the purposes of our Outlook series, we’ll be using Matt’s 37-percent method — extrapolating what degree of raise a player’s 2020 rate of play would have earned him in a full 162-game slate and then awarding him 37 percent of that raise.
- Joey Gallo, OF: $5.3MM
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa, C/INF: $1.2MM
- Rafael Montero, RHP: $1.4MM
- Danny Santana, INF/OF: $3.6MM
- Non-tender candidate: Santana
Option Decisions
- Declined $18MM club option on RHP Corey Kluber (Paid $1MM buyout)
Free Agents
- Kluber, Shin-Soo Choo, Jesse Chavez, Jeff Mathis, Derek Dietrich, Edinson Volquez, Juan Nicasio, Andrew Romine
Emboldened by big 2019 performances from Mike Minor and Lance Lynn as well as the ostensible promise of heightened revenue from a new stadium, the Rangers had an active 2019-20 offseason, headlined by their acquisition of Corey Kluber. The idea was that the trio of Kluber, Lynn and Minor could headline a rotation also featuring breakout hopefuls Kyle Gibson and Jordan Lyles, propelling the Rangers back to contention in the American League West.
Murphy’s Law had other ideas. Not only did the organization — like every other club — not get the revenue boost on which it had banked, but many key parts of the Texas roster were waylaid by injuries. Kluber pitched just one inning before being sidelined by a Grade 2 teres major strain and his club option was bought out, likely ending his tenure in Arlington. Days after Kluber went down, the Rangers lost closer Jose Leclerc to the exact same injury, ending Leclerc’s season after just two innings. Meanwhile, Minor battled shoulder fatigue early in the year and saw his results deteriorate as his velocity dipped by two miles per hour.
The Rangers struck gold on their three-year deals for Minor and Lynn, the latter of which registered as a surprise at the time. The hope was that multi-year deals for Gibson and Lyles would reap similar benefits, but both pitchers were shelled in their first seasons with Texas. To his credit, Gibson at least soaked up 67 1/3 innings (tying him for 23rd among all big league pitchers), but a 5.35 ERA and fielding-independent metrics to match weren’t what the front office had in mind when signing him. Lyles’ 7.02 ERA was the worst in baseball among the 111 pitchers to throw at least 40 innings.
Injuries persisted up and down the Texas lineup, where only three players — Nick Solak, Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Joey Gallo — even managed to top 40 games played and 150 plate appearances.
Twenty-five-year-old Willie Calhoun looked to be on the cusp of a breakout following a strong half-season to close the 2019 campaign, but he suffered a broken jaw after being hit by a pitch in the face during the original Spring Training, and then battled hamstring troubles once play finally commenced. The resulting .190/.231/.260 slash could be attributable to Calhoun’s issues, but it probably doesn’t fill the club with confidence. The Rangers had similar hopes for a Solak breakout, but his power completely evaporated en route to a .268/.326/.344 output. Ronald Guzman again was unable to seize the everyday job at first base.
Most problematic of all for the Rangers, though, is the continued Rougned Odor dilemma and the 2020 decline of his double play partner, Elvis Andrus. Odor has become a focal point for frustrated fans in recent years — understandably so — but tested the organization’s patience even more in 2020 with a career-worst .167/.209/.413 slash. Andrus, too, had the worst season of his career: .194/.252/.330. Both are signed through 2022 still, with Odor guaranteed $27MM and Andrus guaranteed $28MM.
There’s perhaps still some hope for Andrus, who was dogged by a .200 BABIP in a tiny 111-plate appearance sample this year and has generally been an above-average defender and baserunner. A back injury sent Andrus to the IL on multiple occasions in 2020 as well, so there’s a physical reason for his downturn at the plate. If he can rebound to his previous offensive output in 2021-22, his glove and baserunning should allow him to be a serviceable option at shortstop.
Odor carries less reason for optimism. He’s been below-average at the plate for four years running now, his two 30-homer campaigns overshadowed by a combined .279 OBP, and has seen his strikeout troubles soar to new heights since 2019. This year’s 31.8 percent strikeout rate was the worst of his career, and Odor also pops up to the infield at one of the highest rates in the game. In the past, strong exit velocities have given some hope for improved future performance, but Odor’s exit velocity plummeted by a whopping five miles per hour in 2020.
With all the Rangers’ struggles and their inability to develop talent of late — consider that they entered the season without a single homegrown rotation member — it’s no wonder that Daniels has spoken of a step back to focus on youth while owner Ray Davis has cautioned that payroll will drop.
One clear means of working toward those ends would be to aggressively shop Odor, even if it meant paying down a large portion of his salary to facilitate a trade. Given the scope of his struggles and the current economic landscape of the game, though, it’s quite possible that the Rangers won’t find a trade and need to simply move on. That could come in the form of a release or simply relegating him to a seldom-used bench piece, but continuing to give Odor regular playing time only compounds the mistake that was his six-year, $49.5MM extension.
The Rangers’ other problem is that Odor isn’t exactly blocking many quality second base options. If the club isn’t convinced of the aforementioned Solak’s ability to play second base and prefers to keep both him and Calhoun in the outfield/designated hitter mix, immediate alternatives are sparse. Prospect Anderson Tejeda got his feet wet in 2020, but he struggled through 77 plate appearances, as one would expect from a 22-year-old who made the jump from Class-A Advanced to the Majors thanks to the lack of a minor league season. The 25-year-old Kiner-Falefa could conceivably play some second base, but he thrived defensively at third base this year, so the club may wish to leave him there until top prospect Josh Jung is ready for a big league look — likely in 2022.
The lack of immediate infield depth should spur the Rangers to bring in some potential long-term fits. The most straightforward path to doing so could very well be in free agency. Most of the domestic free agents who are hitting the market are well into or even beyond their primes, but some controllable players could hit the market after the non-tender deadline.
More interesting, though, is 25-year-old Korean infielder Ha-Seong Kim. Arguably the best player in the KBO, Kim will be posted by the Kiwoom Heroes this winter. Signing Kim is akin to simply purchasing a Top 100 prospect for any big league club, and the Rangers could offer him regular playing time at second base or third base, with a combination of Kiner-Falefa, Solak and Odor (if he’s still in the picture) manning the other spot. Daniels has cautioned against viewing free agency as a “shortcut” to build the roster back up, although Kim’s age makes him a unique entrant into the market that could align with the organization’s vision.
Beyond that, however, comments from Daniels and Davis suggest that free-agent activity will be limited. Texas could look to broker some affordable deals on the margins of the market, offering bullpen innings late in the offseason to relievers who’ve struggled to find a home and perhaps poking around the market of non-tendered players. But, trades and waiver claims figure to be a greater focus for the organization.
With that in mind, it could be that Lynn has thrown his final pitch as a Ranger. Daniels held off on trading him at the Aug. 31 deadline, implying after the fact that moving Lynn would have simply been making a trade just to make a trade. “I would not have been proud of some of those deals if we made them,” Daniels told reporters following the deadline (link via Sam Blum of the Dallas Morning News). “I don’t think our fans would have been happy about it, either.” If the offers for Lynn were indeed that weak, it’s sensible to have waited until the winter.
There’s an argument, of course, that Lynn’s value has only gone down because he’s controlled only for one playoff run and didn’t pitch as well post-deadline. At the same time, there’s a greater number of clubs now looking to fortify their rotations. The Reds, for instance, weren’t in the market for rotation help in August but could be now if Trevor Bauer walks. Other teams may have been maxed out from a budgetary standpoint in August but could now more capably absorb Lynn’s reasonable $8MM salary for the 2021 campaign. The market for Lynn should still be robust, with some speculative suitors including the Braves, Reds, Yankees, Cubs, Mets, Phillies, Nationals, Blue Jays and Red Sox.
If the Rangers aren’t intent on making a win-now push in 2021, then it also stands to reason that they should be open to offers on slugger Joey Gallo. He’s coming off a down season at the plate after a huge 2019 campaign, but Gallo has as much power as anyone in the game and has emerged as a top-notch defender in the outfield. With two seasons of club control left and his 27th birthday still two weeks away as of this writing, Gallo could tempt clubs with a 40-homer bat and Gold Glove potential.
The bullpen might offer another handful of trade options. Leclerc, 27 next month, would be appealing given that he’s owed $9.75MM through 2022 and can be controlled through 2024 via a pair of club options ($6MM in 2023, $6.25MM in 2024). Texas may not want to sell low on Leclerc after an injury-shortened season, but clubs figure to come calling. The Rangers’ more likely trade candidates, however, could be lesser-noticed names.
Southpaw Joely Rodriguez received a two-year deal that seemed to come out of the blue for many onlookers, but he was quite effective in his return from Japan. He’s owed a $2.5MM salary next season and controlled through 2022 via a similarly affordable $3MM club option. At a time when it looks like clubs will be rather conservative with their bullpen expenditures, two years of a 29-year-old lefty who throws 95 mph at a total of $5.5MM is a nice player to peddle on the trade market.
Similarly, many fans may not even be aware of Rafael Montero’s resurgence since signing with the Rangers. The former Mets top prospect missed 2018 due to injury but has bounced back with a 3.09 ERA and a terrific 53-to-11 K/BB ratio in 46 2/3 innings as a Ranger. Montero, who notched eight saves in 2020 and is now averaging better than 96 mph on his heater, is controlled via arbitration through 2022.
Overall, the Rangers are in a tough spot. Their current MLB roster isn’t good enough to contend, but their farm system ranks among the game’s weakest thanks to some injuries to high draft picks and stalled development of others. With the possible exception of promising young catcher Sam Huff and outfielder Leody Taveras, reinforcements aren’t on the immediate horizon.
All that said, the Rangers only have $39MM on the books in 2022 and don’t have a single guaranteed contract on the 2023 payroll. It’s also important to note that this is an ownership group that has shown a prior willingness to spend and does still have the allure of a new stadium to draw fans once attendance levels are green-lit to return to full capacity. As such, an arduous, multi-year rebuild isn’t a foregone conclusion. The upcoming offseason will likely be focused on acquiring controllable young talent, but if the club can convert on some young talent, we could see Texas jump back into a more aggressive offseason approach a year or two from now.
If this offense was supplemented I could see the team being much better.
I don’t think Odor or Andrus are as bad as their stats were recently; they need more protection in the lineup. Gallo is not the answer unless he revamps his swing and learns to hit the ball the other way.
Josh Bell would be a great addition to this team: Switch hitter with power who plays a decent first base. Add in some smart free agents and this team looks really good. Springer would be a great get too.
The alternative is to trade Lance Lynn and whatever else they can and just start their rebuild now.
Josh Bell does not play a decent first base. He plays a duck wearing snowshoes first base.
Rangers need to try and get Bryant from the Cubs.
How does getting Bryant help this team? Kim is much better option imo
Odor’s errors hurt so much.
Especially if there isn’t a NL DH next year, you can get Josh Bell for a pair of Tonto’s used drawers.
But that’s exactly the kind of deal a team like Texas, which is far from being poor (especially with the new park) should look for. If the start a complete rebuild, given their farm system (or lack of same), it could take 4-5 years; the appeal of the new stadium will wear off by then. That’s a zero-sum gain for a rather large investment, whatever the portion of that investment was.
Not a big Ranger fan, but I have no idea how
Daniels has kept his job. Not trading Lynn at the deadline is as big a misfire as the Pirates trading for Archer.
This off-season will be tough, but despite just how horrific we were last season, I see a light at the end of the tunnel.
(Starting) Pitching: The young guys haven’t sorted themselves out as some would have thought as guys like Allard have fallen flat and dusted away prospects like Kyle Cody and Wes Benjamin have excelled (the former to a great extent). Gibson is a lock to be a rotation member in 21′, he showed some bright spots last season despite his god awful line. Lyles should go to the bullpen, and we should try Hearn in a rotation spot imo, but I doubt that will happen because JD loves playing bad players when they are owed money. Lynn will be traded. I hope to keep it that straightforward because it is. We will get a nice player or two, but he’s gone. So that makes our rotation look like so:
(absent)
Cody
(absent)
Gibson
Hearn
Filling in the blanks with Kluber and Archer would be ideal because if either comes back into form, either could be good trade pieces at the deadline (and maybe Archer would be an extension candidate).
Bullpen: Our bullpen is surprisingly nice. Rodriguez, Hernandez, and Montero was the nastiest 1,2,3 bullpen punch in the AL West. Chavez and Volquez are gone, and are likely to be filled with Demarcus Evans and maybe Alex Speas (a random prospect who can throe 102). This is the bright spot of the team.
Outfield: Gallo will (should) not be traded. He is the best player on the team, and if we traded him there would be no player on the team who could man right field. I predict him to stay, and probably get extended. As for the rest of the outfield, Solak will be in left, and Taveras in center. A very good defensive outfield even though Solak isn’t a good defensive player.
Infield: IKF is a lock to be either the 3rd baseman or the shortstop. Odor will be traded or released; even the Odor lovers in the front office and staff have rolled eyes at his production recently. He’s as good as gone whether that be via trade or release waivers. Guzman will be the starting 1b, and maybe in a platoon role with a C.J Cron type if they decide to go that route because Guzzy is atrocious against lefties. That leaves Andrus… I think he is an average player, and that’s why I will say that he was the UN-luckiest player I have ever seen last season. Every ball he hit, whether hard or soft, shallow or far, was caught. He made good contact, but every single thing was caught. I am starting to expect him to be our starting shortstop; I think he deserves that chance. Which leads us to a having a huge hole at second base, which will be filled by our premier free agent acquisition: Ha-Seong Kim. The 25 year old fits right into our future plans as he is around the same age as guys like IKF, Calhoun, Solak, and even Gallo. Our Guzman, Kim, Andrus, and IKF infield will also be the best defensive infield we’ve had in a long time. That’ll be great.
Catcher: Plain and simple. Trevino will start along with an older backup catcher like Suzuki or Castro, and then Huff will come up towards the end of the season and be in a near 50/50 role with Trevino.
DH: Calhoun. He got hit in the face in spring training, but in 19′ he showed a glimpse of his full potential. Every player will be less intimidated by the size of GLF next season, and I expect a lot of bats like Gallo, Solak, and Calhoun to break out of their slumps next season.
Managers: The two-headed pitching coach will fail miserably, and Woodward should be replaced by Jeff Mathis.
If this all happens, I don’t expect us to be a WC team, but I expect this to be a huge progression in our re-build process. Jung, Huff, and a few of our pitching prospects should be up full time in 22′, and I expect that to be the year we can finally start climbing out of our hole the tank dug.
I was looking forward to your take. You’re a very knowledgable fan and I enjoy your posts.
Thanks, I’m not looking for complements or likes, I just like giving my opinion about different topics. The most addicting one being the Rangers.
I want to be a GM, and if enough people see potential in my playing ability, I hope to play baseball in college. Right now I’m in my 2nd week of rehab for and elbow and shoulder, and I hope to start my throwing program around the end of the month.
I think I started commenting on this site at either the 2018 trade deadline or the 2018 off-season, I forget. I have been praised on my writing ability, and it just feels good to put my opinions of different baseball topics into words on here.
Nevertheless, thanks, it means a lot. Not many people can say nice things nowadays, so it’s good to see people like you still exist.
you’re obviously a bright dude, good luck in all of your endeavors! Keep up the posting too, lots of knuckleheads around here it’s nice to hear some comprehensive takes
Rangers should trade Montero to the White Sox for Benyamin Bailey
Odor to the Angels for Justin Upton
Sign guys like
Archer and Morton
I would not be opposed to a salary swap for Odor for Upton, but I think Schwarber due to price or Belt due to price and need make a little more sense. Agreed on the Archer choice and I love Morton, but Desclfani or Chase Anderson, Quintana, Kluber, or Garrett RIchards seem more likely.
as an angel fan… you will regret the Upton trade .. I know odor has been rough but NOT Upton rough. I’d do it with maybe another high prospect and rangers throw along Lynn
Please non-tender Santana
nah…. we should keep him
no… we will keep him
You’d rather see him in CF than Taveras?
Santana can play CF LF SS 2B 1B
Agreed he can have mid 40 OPS+ at all those positions. Sign me up.
The Rangers are going to go the Astros route of sandbagging the next five seasons to reap the talent at the top of the next five drafts. We can then win a World Series, preferably without the use of a trash can.
I really hope a few more guys break out atop the draft boards next season. Rocker, Leiter, Fabian, and Lawler are the 4 guys right now with a pretty good gap separating Rocker and everyone else. I hope that gap shrinks next season to where we have plenty to choose from.
The teams that are in the gray area between rebuilding and contending are in trouble. Rangers need to pick a lane.
Yeah, since 2017 us Rangers’ fans have been yelling at them to get in the right lane but they just keep trying to straddle the double yellow line, and when a car comes they swerve into a ditch… Every. Single. Time.
yep. doesnt work unless you’re a team like the Yankees who can just make talent appear in a snap.
Born/Raised in Chicago as a Cubs fan been in DFW for 14 years…fan base suffers from the same problem they keep attending/spending $ tolerating losing not motivating/keeping ownership accountable….Rangers really should be a powerhouse and Major FA attraction but they don’t spend the $$ because they don’t have to….beat hope is new ownership or fans don’t buy tickets….obviously Jon Daniels needs to go
Amen… that concludes the prayer.
Agreed. I’ve been to at least 4-5 games a season from 02-18. Only went to 1 in 19 and none in 20. And wont again until like was said they pick a course and stick to it. Been a loyal fan since 88ish but I cant buy in to this. I can tolerate a rebuilding team that sucks, if theirs a game plan, if theres some potential, possible bright spots. But I cant support sucking, cutting payroll, no farm, not doing anything to upgrade the farm, and signing over the hill, broke down band aids like Forsyth, smyly, volquez, cabrera, and Frazer hoping they hit gold and they turn into comeback player of the year.
The pathway to sustained success does lie in the core here of Gallo, Jung, Huff, Taveras, Trevino, Solak, Kiner-Falefa, and hopefully a break or two with the young pitchers. I like the idea of adding Kim. Guzman and his underwhelming offense and Calhoun and his inability to play anywhere even passably in the field leave them out of future Ranger plans. Rangers need to acquire J. Bell for first. Check-in on D. Smith, or Hoskins for 1B as well. Mancini or Grichuk, Gurriel, or Duvall would all be good trade targets. Sign Ozuna or Pederson to DH and you’re headed in the right direction.
I know we disagree on this, but I say for this season Calhoun and Guzman should stay where they are. We won’t be good this season, so why not see if Calhoun can be an .830 ops guy or if Guzman is at least the good side of a platoon? There are plenty of big bats coming into free agency next season (like any season), that we can sign for DH or 1b if need be. But why not try them out one more time for next season, and see if they fit on the team at a cheaper price than guys like Pederson or Ozuna?
angels will have Lynn for opening day…
They dont have a promising farm because Daniels has no clue what he is doing. If Lynn isn’t traded this offseason it will be purposeful negligence.
There is plenty of promise in their farm…
Maximo Acosta is the future #1 prospect in baseball. Jung is a solid prospect Huff has some extreme power potential and you will start hearing names like Humberto Hernandez David Garcia and runny Henriquez very soon. there is plenty more potential after that also
Ronny
Other than that, things are looking pretty good.
I would love to see Boston put together a package for Joey Gallo. They might be able to get him for a deal headlined by Jeter Downs, with Michael Chavis and a Top 30 pitching prospect included as well. Maybe they could sweeten the prospect pot and get both Lynn & Gallo from Texas. Verdugo is athletic enough to play CF for Boston until Duran is ready to take over, so they could run out Benny, Verdugo and Gallo as their everyday starting OF which would be great defensively and possibly great offensively too if Benny finds his swing again. Gallo would be a monster in Fenway and Downs would really give Texas an excellent building block at 2nd base for years to come. While Chavis has struggled some, he is extremely versatile as he can play 1B, 2B, 3B and LF as well. He also has 30 HR power potential; he just needs to cut down on his strikeouts. They could also throw in a decent pitching prospect like Thad Ward to insure they get this deal done. A package of Downs, Chavis and Ward seems more than fair for Gallo, do others agree?
If the Red Sox got Gallo and Lynn, I’d assume they would go get Rosethal or Hendriks and just boost up that entire team for another WS run. I just don’t like the lack of good corner outfielders we have, and even the lack of corner outfield prospects. If we traded Gallo, that would be the biggest hole we’ve had on the team in a long time.
Instead, a little bit of a wacky trade could be Lynn, Odor, and Montero or Leclerc for Eovaldi, Chavis, Ward and Groome. Eovaldi for the salary difference, and Chavis, Ward, and Groome for Lynn and Montero or Leclerc to strengthen your bullpen. Your rotation would be:
Sale
Lynn
E-rod
Houck
(Random 5th starter… Desclafani?)
I think this deal could actually be done especially if we ate some of Odor’s salary. I like it, how about you?
It’s hard to contend when your two biggest contracts belong to guys who are below replacement level players.
What Odor really needs is a trip to the barber. He looks like a homeless hipster.
Trade him to Yankees for Stanton that will force him to shave.
IMO: Our team currently has no heart -that one player that shows up everyday and you see on his face that he’s in love with the game. It takes a heart to believe that you can win. Until we have a heart – we aren’t going to win.