There’s a strong case to be made that the Rockies out to auction off the rights to star shortstop Trevor Story this winter. While it’s tempting to hold tight and hope he can help lead a renaissance, it’s a fair sight easier to imagine that backfiring than working out.
The Rockies had a taste of short-season contention, but had a dreadful 2020 run deficit (275-353) and have played decisively sub-.500 ball since the start of 2019. There’s still a strong core of talent, but the path to contention is awfully questionable given the Rockies’ meager supporting cast and injury questions (Jon Gray, David Dahl, Scott Oberg) … not to mention the quality of the NL West competition.
The Colorado organization has a number of needs and unclear means to address them all sufficiently. The team has mostly finished paying for its recent swings and misses in free agency and has already begun drawing down payroll. But it’s still on track to spend north of $130MM (assuming they tender most arb-eligibles) even before making any additions. Owner Dick Monfort didn’t exactly suggest he’ll be buying up new talent, writing to season ticketholders that “there will be nothing normal about this offseason as the industry faces a new economic reality.”
It’s a scenario in which many teams will explore their options with quality veterans. But who to deal? The Rox dabbled in some major scenarios last winter but ultimately kept third baseman Nolan Arenado. It’d be awfully difficult to strike a reasonable deal now, given his hefty salary and subpar offensive season. Charlie Blackmon is too expensive to foist onto another team after a middling season. They could certainly move German Marquez, but that’d mean giving up a 25-year-old rotation building block with a good contract situation.
Enter Story, a mid-prime star shortstop who is still youthful (28 in ten days) but entering his final season of team control. It’s much the situation that Arenado was in a few years back, except that Story will command a rather less onerous salary ($17.5MM) than Arenado had lined up for his final season of arbitration.
Arenado ended up inking a monster extension rather than testing free agency. That’s an avenue here, too … in theory, anyway. Monfort certainly didn’t sound like he was plotting out another nine-figure deal. While Story would never have commanded Arenado-like money, and certainly won’t now during a pandemic, he’d still cost a pretty penny.
Make no mistake: Story is a truly elite position player. If anything, he’s underrated, perhaps due to his roller-coaster first two seasons in the majors. Since he settled in, Story has compiled the tenth-most fWAR in baseball over the past three years.
We honestly don’t need to dive in too far to understand the point here. Story once had big pop and a ton of strikeouts, but he figured out the latter problem without sapping his power. He drove his K rate down to 24.3% in the just-completed season and is still driving the ball with authority. He’s in the top 5% leaguewide in speed and plays outstanding defense.
How about the demand side? Story isn’t cheap, but he’s an absolute bargain who would instantly elevate a lineup. Acquiring him would only require a one-year commitment and bring with it the likelihood of a qualifying offer (with anticipated draft compensation) this time next year. There’s always the potential for an extension as well.
Demand may not be widespread — it’ll tick up next winter when several big-time shortstops hit the open market — but it’s not hard to envision teams having keen interest. The Angels, Reds, Phillies, and Yankees all make particular sense on paper. Story is good enough that a team could consider acquiring him and playing him at third base, or instead moving an existing shortstop to another spot on the diamond.
It’ll be hard for the Rockies to go forward with moving Story. Keeping him at least until mid-season would at least give the club a chance. Then again, it would also mean paying half his salary, risking injury or decline, and taking the qualifying offer off of the table (which will reduce the value that an acquiring team would anticipate receiving in a swap). Unless Monfort and GM Jeff Bridich are able to mount a surprise run at an extension with Story’s reps, biting the bullet and getting a trade done this winter looks to be the best option.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
If the Rockies want to rebuild, it would be wise to sell high here
Oh wait, the Rockies aren’t wise. Then there’s the fact they like, never trade in the offseason.
Tulo 2.0
Tulo was injury prone his entire career. Story has not been. They also aren’t very similar players. Other than both being overall good Colorado shortstops, there is no real comparison.
Yea, that’s a horrible comparison. You should be ashamed of yourself despicable.
Between story and lindor Rumors I expect, we may get a preview of some potential landing spots in the offseason for them and other SS
Why do they Rockies always have to sell off their best players? The conventional wisdom is they grant Arenado a trade, they trade Story, etc…. is it their pitching? Do they have tons of holes save for like 2 or 3 super stars?
Reliable pitching has been an almost-annual problem, even in playoff years, but I think the biggest issue has been ownership/ownership’s belief in loyalty to underperforming executives. Despite not having much to show for nearly 20 combined years of service time, O’Dowd and Bridich have benefitted from a lack of accountability in their failures to acquire and/or develop talented players year-over-year.
And ownership feels no pressure to change because they draw 3 million fans a year, for good and bad teams.
I wonder if it was that Mike Hampton deal that made them not want to compete too aggressively for free agents anymore. I know they do reward plenty of their guys with contracts but they don’t go after pitchers, really and I wonder if it goes back to Mike Hampton…
It the fact that no good pitcher wants to go to Colorado. If Colorado wants good starters, not top pitchers they will ha to really overpay(2or 3X). Pitchers that go to colorado have era go up 1.-4.5 run per 9 innings. If pitchers are going to be a free agent the worse place to go is colorado.
“grant Arenado a trade”…..with his hefty salary and decidedly low offensive numbers, his defense isn’t going to convince any team to open the vaults and pay him the contract Colorado negotiated coming off a Covid season…..doubt that Colorado would get back the value they would need to pull that off….but you never know…..
Don’t know why they consistently trade off their best players….better answered by Rockies fans who have witnessed all first hand.
The Rockies literally never sell off their best players. It’s, like, their trademark.
True. The only case I can remember where a star player still in his prime was traded is Matt Holliday. I guess you could say Ellis Burks falls into that category too, although he was closer to the end of his prime and Dexter Fowler wasn’t quite up to the level of a star player when he was dealt early. All the rest of the players were traded after their primes or they stayed.
I’d like to see the Dodgers buy low on Nolan Arenado.
I doubt Colorado would do that deal in division though.
Nah. Arenado has terrible home-away splits and he is severely overrated.
Arenado’s defense is elite everywhere and his offensive splits aren’t “terrible,” he just isn’t as overpowering away from Coors, as is the case with pretty much every player. That said, I don’t see the Dodgers pursuing him, unless they decide to let Turner go and the Rockies pay part of Arenado’s salary, which seems highly unlikely. I think the only way Arenado could have ended up with the Dodgers would have been through free agency, and that went out the window when he signed that huge extension with Colorado.
His career home and away splits are indeed horrible. OPS+ at home 120; 20% above average. Away, 79 – 21% below average; a delta of 41 percentage points. That is horrible.
Those aren’t his OPS+ numbers but his tOPS+ numbers. The glossary states that the tOPS+ is comparing his home and road OPS+ to his own total OPS+, not to the rest of the league. The sOPS+ is the one that compares to the rest of the league (but is not park adjusted).
From 2015 to 2019, his OPS averaged around .830-.850. I wouldn’t call that horrible.
He has about a 200 point difference in OPS. Guy is a good outside of Coors.
He always seem to kick the Giants’ butts whenever he’s in town.
As a Rox fan, you’d have to give us, Urias, Buehler, Kiki and your top prospect catcher for us to even consider. Y’all aint using Jansen anymore, he’d still be our Closer. Haha
Wow, I know we all tend to over-value our favorite team’s players a bit, but dude?! If the Rockies could get Buehler (which they couldn’t) straight up for one year of Story that’d be an overpay for LA. Way harder to find a true ace than a SS/3B.
I don’t think Rockies Fan is serious. He can’t be, can he? For that price tag, I’ll give you Bogaerts and Devers, and it still wouldn’t be remotely close.
Buehler is a 5 inning pitcher…he on his own would not command a trade the Rockies would find palatable unless the Dodgers agreed to swallow all of Arenado’s contract.
The Rockies would send a G-6 to pick Walker Buehler up right now if LA agreed to trade him straight up for Arenado. Heck, they might even buy Buehler his own G-6 if the Dodgers agreed to pay Arenado’s full salary. But there’s no way LA deals Buehler for Arenado even if Colorado agreed to pay some of his salary.
In this economic environment, it’s going to be nearly impossible to deal Arenado. So long as a team picks up his entire contract, Colorado would probably take $0.50 on the dollar for Nolan right now. I’m sure they’d much rather re-sign Story to a more reasonable deal than carry Arenado’s contract through to the end. If they are unable to find an Arenado match then they’ll probably have to trade Story this year as they won’t be able to afford him while paying Nolan & Charlie too. Such a shame to see as Trevor Story could have been the next Todd Helton for Colorado…I’d hate to see him go in his prime but he should return quite a haul of prospects if they deal him even though he only has one year of control left.
Only this year because of blister. Dodgers don’t want any Rockie players. But thanks Red Sox for Mookie.
Walker – basically the Ace of the Dodger rotation? That guy?
The Reds want him. We’ll send Senzel and someone else.
Vertigo and mountains are not a good mix
What’s “someone else’s” fastball look like?
Unless that someone else is prime Barry Larkin, I think it will take more than that. Colorado already has an injury prone CF in Dahl, so Senzel would be superfluous.
In a normal year a competitive Reds team might give up prospects and take on a $18M salary for 1 year of Story and a potential QO. But no way they’re giving up 5(?) years of Senzel plus other prospects until all the MLB clouds clear over 2021.
Are you familiar with reds management? They are full of surprises. Don’t put it past em.
I don’t want Senzel no matter how many years he has remaining. He will probably spend 3 years of that control on the IL. I’d much rather keep and extend Story. And if not, I’d want something better than damaged goods.
OUGHT to auction off, not OUT.
Dang autocorrect strikes again.
Oh wow you know proper spelling! Way to go bud!
Reds…he would thrive at GABP…
Why? He has a .575 OPS there.
Colorado won’t trade with the Dodgers
*”…ought to auction…”
Road numbers suggest Story is not elite. He’d be lucky to be considered a Top 10 shortstop in baseball.
Simply looking at road numbers is the most idiotic way of evaluating players there is. Rockies players are always at a disadvantage.
First, everyone knows their home park is the best hitting park in the league so it is natural to assume the home numbers will be better. It would be foolish to expect otherwise.
Second, every team in the league EXCEPT the Rockies gets to bump up their road numbers with their own Coors Field stats. In fact, in a normal years they make up a full 11% of the road numbers for the rest of the NL West teams..
Third, the Rockies play a full one third of their road games in SF, SD, and LA, three of the most pitcher-friendly parks in the league. Those three parks make up a full 33% of the Rockies road numbers.
Road numbers are not an equal evaluator because a road schedule is different for every team. It would like giving an equal number of electoral votes to every state even those the population for some states is much higher. It’s just not fair.
And that doesn’t even talk about Reverse Coors (the adjustment Rox hitters have to make whenever they leave Coors to how baseballs move at sea level). Rockies OPS in first games of road trips is astonishingly bad.
Story’s career road numbers aren’t great. You have ALWAYS been in-denial of your Rockies being inflated and crappy. Newsflash: you need to join us in-reality. Your Rox are garbage on the road. Your teams routinely finish near the top offensively at home and at the bottom on the road. Consistently over 25+ years.
You also don’t win divisions. A reflection of your inferior talent.
Your excuses also don’t hold weight. If you have a problem with the teams you face, be better.
Story is not a Top 10 shortstop. I told you Arenado wasn’t a Top 5 3B a year ago and I was right. Your homerism leaves you blinded by what is extremely obvious regarding the Rockies. Stop complaining. It only hurts your argument.
You really need to get a life dude. I get that you don’t like the Rockies, but I don’t care. I’m sorry that you don’t like that I disagreed with you, but harping on every one of my comments just makes you look pathetic. I’d be perfectly happy to never hear from you again. Have a nice day.
If there’s ever been a year to rebuild your pitching staff- it’s this one. Rox should keep their lineup in tact and go sign 3-4 pitchers
Rockies 14th in MLB Team Starter ERA and Team Starter WAR despite dismal performance / injury to their 1A/2 starter. With a young staff, I am not sure that’s where I look to improve. Outside of management issues, the Rockies failed because they stunk day in and day out on offense.and of course the bullpen.
And now you know….the rest of the Story.
Trade Arenado, Keep Story. Trevor actually likes it in Colorado and hasn’t been a complete Diva. While Arenado is great, I want someone who actually wants to be here.
Trade Arenado to the Braves. That team would be nasty!
As a Braves fan, don’t want him in the least unless the Rockies are covering half the contract without asking for more than one top prospect in return. I don’t think that’d happen, so…
He’s not rubbish on the road. The bat is okay and the defense plays. He’s just not the star he’s paid like. That contract is massive, and the Braves need to lock up Freeman after the coming season. I don’t think they’d put two enormous deals on the ledger like that.
That’s Fair. What about taking Blackmon off our hands? Haha, He is way better than Markakis was. Just a pretty big Contract.
If Blackmon was on the last year of his deal I actually wouldn’t hate that if the Rockies took back Ender to offset some salary. He’s got, what, three more years though? No thank you. Ha ha
Atlanta would do well to nab story and slide him over to 3rd. He also is protection for Freddie in the middle of the line up.
I like the Braves. At least I could continue to cheer for him. Just no Dodgers, Red Sox, Yankees, or Astros!
His OPS is over 200pts lower on the road and his slugging percentage is nearly 200pts lower, which I think creates a problematic trade scenario. The Rockies will value him as a high level player, rightfully. Story would be a great add for Atlanta if he’d play 3B. For the Braves I think you’d have to expect to get something closer to his road numbers, though. Good player, but not as elite. That makes trading for any Colorado hitter hard.
Why would they move him to 3rd? He’s a better defensive shortstop than Swanson, or at least equal. Make Dansby your utility guy.
Rangers need to make this move in spite of the cost. He is from Irving, so he has metroplex ties. At very least Rangers could flip him at the deadline or get qualifying offer compensation at end of the season. He is young enough to fit into plans if they can extend him. He is more reliable offensively overall than Andrus or Odor. He is considerably better defensively than either of the other two at this point. He would supply some help for Gallo and give Rangers a solid option in the three-hole in the batting order. He seems from afar to also possess a Michael Young type personality and leadership style and would work well for the other youngsters.
You’d probably have to give up Gallo on the Story trade, and a lot of pitching.
So who would you take, Lindor or Story for one year?
Lindor is slightly younger and equal or better than STory, but also more expensive and not a metroplex connection, so could be harder to extend him. Rangers also do not match up quite as well with Cleveland.
To increase your probability of winning the WS in 2021. And if you don’t and can’t resign; you will still get a quality pick for his services.
Rangers won’t be close to WS in 21, but with all pluses you get from Story, it would be worth it. AS I said at very least you get extra draft pick or quality player pkg in return if he cannot be extended. Other than the cost for a year not really much downside in attempting to get a trade worked out.
Those home-road splits.
…are meaningless. Just finishing your sentence for you.
Not meaningless. Why can’t the Rockies win? Because they aren’t as good as their numbers reflect?
Rhetorical question. Answer is yes. They can’t hit on the road. That is an unquestionable fact.
Since Story, the Rockies have had a rough time with their young hitters.
Dahl, Tapia, Mcmahon, Hilliard, Hampson, Rodgers all have the tools to be incredibly successful but all have a huge hole in their game.
The problem is that the Rockies are hedging their bets with the young players. Colorado is trying to turn each of them into super utility guys with 6 guys playing 4 positions. None of them can really get enough at bats to really get going. Baseball is a game that requires repetition in order to succeed especially at hitting. When guys come to the park every day and don’t know if they are going to play and if they do play, they don’t know where on the field they need to practice on a day to day basis, that is a bad thing.
Depth is good, but the Rox need to trade a couple of these guys in order for the others to be “the guy” at second or first or center or left. Now that Daniel Murphy is out of the way, maybe that will happen, but I have serious reservations. Bridich just doesn’t seem like he thinks that way.
They better Pray Arenado opts out
They’re trying their hardest to piss him off enough to do just that!
I would take Story over Lindor
And I’d take a healthy Seager over both of them!
Story is multi-talented and adheres to a strong regimen for conditioning. He is rarely hurt and also runs very well. He likes Colorado and wants to win here. The guy is a strong building block for the Rockies and has hit some long home runs. He is the last player I would trade on this team-great power and speed and excellent on defense.
Home/Road splits aren’t meaningless. I know some Rockies fans would like to ignore them, but no one else will.
It doesn’t matter if you ignore them or not. Quite simply, they are not a reliable indicator of talent because they are not an equal evaluator of talent. I ignore them for Rockies, but I also ignore them for every other player in the league. They are meaningless.
Your Rockies have little talent. No road numbers needed. Wins and losses.
Go away stalker.
You came at me first with an emotional response and without facts. Name calling doesn’t help your cause. Your Rockies are a mess and their record the last two years prove it. No need to be defensive over the truth.
Story’s Home/Road splits are quite different, as you would expect.
Just briefly, here are his career splits:
Home: .304/.370/.624
Away: .250/.315/.445
I’m sure, Colorado management would love to get a haul for this guy. But other teams aren’t stupid. Why give up prospects when you can just sign Didi Gregorius or Marcus Semien? The smart thing for Colorado to do is play out his contract then offer him a QO. He’s more valuable to the Rockies than he would be to other teams.
FWIW, Freddie Freeman’s home/road OPS splits are .895/.889.
But Freeman’s home park is closer to the mean, so it is only natural that his splits would be close to each other. The higher park factor you have, the bigger split should be expected. It’s the same with Pittsburgh or San Fran hitters that have worse numbers at home than on the road.
Dave – check team stats home/road. You will notice Colorado is sometimes dead last on the road yet near the very top at home. Awfully strange!
I’d trade the entire Phillies team for him and start from scratch. Rockies are nuts to trade him.
They won’t deal him away, though. Monfort still thinks that for some reason this team can contend.