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Trevor Story

AL West Notes: Ohtani, Angels, Syndergaard, Altuve, Carpenter, Story, Giles

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Reigning AL MVP Shohei Ohtani was removed from today’s game due to right groin tightness, as he suffered the injury while trying to beat out a double play during the seventh inning.  Jack Mayfield pinch-hit for Ohtani in the ninth inning, when the DH spot was next up at the plate.  Ohtani told MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger and other reporters that it was something of a precautionary removal and that he intended to play tomorrow, though Angels manager Joe Maddon took a more wait-and-see approach.

Naturally, any injury to Ohtani impacts the Angels on two fronts, as he is also scheduled to start Wednesday’s game against the Red Sox.  With Los Angeles optioning Jose Suarez to Triple-A today, it could provide an opportunity for Jaime Barria or Kenny Rosenberg to pick up a spot in the Halos’ six-man rotation.

The Angels at least know who will be starting Tuesday’s series opener, as Maddon said that Noah Syndergaard will take the ball.  Syndergaard was scratched from a planned start last Friday due to illness, but it appears as though the right-hander is back in good health, and he tossed a bullpen session today with no issues.

More from around the AL West…

  • Jose Altuve is on pace to be activated from the 10-day injured list on Monday when the Astros begin a home series against the Mariners, Astros GM James Click told reporters (including The Houston Chronicle’s Chandler Rome).  A left hamstring strain sent Altuve to the IL on April 20, though the strain wasn’t thought to be serious at the time, and Altuve will indeed return only slightly beyond the minimum 10 days.  The seven-time All-Star has yet to get rolling this season, hitting only .167/.268/.250 over his first 41 plate appearances.
  • Matt Carpenter was one of several veterans signed to minor league contracts who had the ability to opt out of their deals today, but Evan Grant of The Dallas Morning News reports that Carpenter will pass on his opt-out clause and remain in the Rangers organization.  It isn’t surprising that Carpenter (a Texas native) elected to stay put, as he already passed on another opt-out opportunity when the Rangers sent him to the minors at the end of Spring Training, and Carpenter said anyway that he needed more time to ramp up and adjust to his overhauled swing.  The former Cardinals standout has performed decently well at Triple-A Round Rock, hitting .239/.327/.457 with two home runs in 52 PA.
  • Both the Rangers and Mariners were linked to Trevor Story’s market prior to the lockout, and The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports that both AL West rivals offered Story a contract similar to the six-year, $140MM deal that the free agent eventually signed with the Red Sox in March.  At that earlier date in the offseason, Story’s reps countered with a much larger contract demands, leading both Texas and Seattle to go in different directions with their lineup plans.  The Rangers instead splurged on both Corey Seager and Marcus Semien, while the Mariners (who intended to use Story as a second baseman) acquired Adam Frazier from the Padres, and then added Jesse Winker and Eugenio Suarez to the position player side in another trade with the Reds following the lockout.  Interestingly, Rosenthal notes that Story has changed his representation since signing with Boston, and is now a client of the Wasserman Agency.
  • Mariners reliever Ken Giles is still three or four weeks away from playing in any games, though he has started a throwing program, The Athletic’s Corey Brock reports.  Giles underwent Tommy John surgery in October 2020 and was aiming to return by Opening Day, though a strained tendon in his right middle finger set Giles back significantly during Spring Training.  As such, the veteran right-hander has had to more or less restart his ramp-up activities.  Still, Giles is on pace to be an option for the M’s bullpen come June, and he could be an impact addition if Giles is able to recapture some of his past form, as the righty has at times looked like one of the best relievers in baseball during his seven MLB seasons.

Red Sox Designate Jeisson Rosario For Assignment

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The Red Sox announced this morning that they’ve designated outfield Jeisson Rosario for assignment in order to open a spot on the roster for Trevor Story, whose six-year contract is now official.

Rosario, 22, was acquired from the Padres in 2020 alongside infield prospect Hudson Potts in the trade that sent Mitch Moreland to San Diego. Both Rosario and Potts have now been designated for assignment on consecutive days, though, as Potts lost his 40-man spot yesterday when Boston claimed righty Kyle Tyler off waivers from the Angels.

The fleet-footed Rosario has yet to make his big league debut or even reach the Triple-A level. He spent the 2021 campaign with the Sox’ Double-A affiliate, where he posted a .232/.335/.307 batting line with three home runs, 15 doubles, a triple and a strong 12.3% walk rate against a troubling 27.9% strikeout rate. Scouting reports tout his speed, glovework in center and ability to draw walks, but Rosario is lacking in power and has notable concerns about his hit tool. He’ll be traded or placed on outright waivers within the next week.

Red Sox Sign Trevor Story

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March 23: The Red Sox have formally announced the signing of Story to a six-year contract.

March 20: The Red Sox are in agreement with Trevor Story on a six year, $140MM contract. After the fourth year, 2025, Story can opt out of the final two years of the deal. However, Boston can negate that opt-out by picking up a seventh year option for $25MM, or pay a $5MM buyout. If they were to exercise that option, it would add $20MM to the deal, effectively making it a seven-year, $160MM arrangement. Story will not have any no-trade protection as part of the contract. Story is a client of Excel Sports Management.

Story will take over at second base with Xander Bogaerts staying on as the team’s shortstop, per Jim Bowden of The Athletic. Red Sox manager Alex Cora has confirmed that plan, per Marly Rivera of ESPN.

It had been a fairly quiet offseason for the Red Sox up to this point, with the club mostly focused on its pitching staff, adding veterans like Rich Hill, Michael Wacha and Jake Diekman. On the position player side of things, they had only really subtracted since the offseason began, sending Hunter Renfroe to the Brewers for Jackie Bradley Jr. and prospects. Story, however, they have certainly add a tremendous impact bat to their lineup.

After the departure of Troy Tulowitzki, Story took over the everyday shortstop job in Colorado and ran with it. Over the past six seasons, he has played in 745 games and hit 158 home runs, hitting an overall .272/.340/.523, for a wRC+ of 112. He also stole 100 bases and provided excellent defense, accruing 21.6 fWAR in that time.

In addition to helping out the Red Sox this year, the addition of Story makes sense from a long-term view. Xander Bogaerts can opt out of the remainder of his contract at the end of this season, when he will have three years and $60MM left on it, something he seems likely to do. If that should come to pass, they could already have his replacement on the roster. As noted above, the plan for this season is to keep Bogaerts at short and have Story play second, moving Enrique Hernandez to regular outfield duty. Story missed some of last year’s season with an injury to his throwing elbow, and some scouts expressed the belief that he would be best utilized at second base due to that injury impacting his throwing arm. Boston will now have at least one year to see if Story’s arm can rebound in any way before deciding how to proceed beyond 2022.

Although the writing has seemed to be on the wall for quite some time now, this officially ends the Trevor Story era in Colorado. Much like with Nolan Arenado before him, there seemed to be a falling out between the club and their marquee player. Last year, as Story was headed into free agency and the club not in contention, he seemed like an obvious candidate to be traded to a contender. However, the deadline came and went without a deal coming to fruition, something that left Story confused. “I don’t have really anything good to say about the situation and how it unfolded,” Story said in the immediate aftermath of the deadline. During the offseason, there didn’t seem to be any belief that a reunion was in the cards. The club apparently offered him more than the $140MM he got from the Red Sox, with Story preferring his chances of competing in Boston, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network. Between Story and Tulowitzki, the shortstop position in Colorado has been spoken for since 2006. For now, it seems like Jose Iglesias will be taking over, as he signed with the club a week ago. Since the club made a qualifying offer that Story rejected, they will receive a compensatory draft pick after the first round. The Red Sox forfeit their second-highest pick and and will have their international signing bonus pool reduced by $500K.

This deal also closes the book on this year’s mega class of free agent shortstops, which featured Story, Carlos Correa, Corey Seager, Javier Baez and Marcus Semien. Going into the offseason, it was expected by many that the Yankees would be prominent players in this market, given their penchant for high payrolls and obvious need at the position that has been apparent since Gleyber Torres was moved to second base last year. But reports emerged in November that they were considering sitting out the shortstop bidding, content to acquire a stopgap solution as they wait for either of Oswald Peraza or Anthony Volpe to graduate from prospects to big leaguers. That now seems to have been the case, as the club acquired glove-first shortstop Isiah Kiner-Falefa to man the position, while the big five shortstops all landed with surprising suitors. The rebuilding Rangers grabbed both Seager and Semien, while another rebuilding club, the Tigers, nabbed Baez. Correa shockingly lingered on the market before settling on a short-term deal with the Twins, a team not known for reeling in the top fish in free agency. Now Story has come off the board, landing on a team that didn’t have an obvious fit at the position.

Since Chaim Bloom left the small-market Rays and took over as Boston’s Chief Baseball Officer after the 2019 season, the club has been undergoing a sort of semi-rebuild process. It was a few months into his tenure that they traded Mookie Betts and David Price to the Dodgers as part of a process to strip down payroll, despite winning the World Series in 2018. On the heels of that trade, the club went 24-36 in the pandemic-shortened season, slipping beneath the lowly Orioles and into last place in the AL East. After some modest additions to the club, many went into 2021 expecting they would be unable to compete in such a strong division. However, they rallied for a 92-win season, just edging out the Blue Jays for a Wild Card berth, making it as far as the ALCS before falling to the Astros. On the heels of that surprise campaign, it seemed for the past few months that the club might again opt for only modest upgrades. Instead, the Fenway Faithful have the big splash that they were desperately hoping for, easily the biggest since Bloom took over, as the AL East figures to be a four-headed beast yet again.

Bob Nightengale of USA Today first reported that Boston and Story were in agreement, as well as the $140MM guarantee. (Twitter links) Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic was the first to report the six-year term. The fact that there was an unusual opt-out was first relayed by Jon Heyman of MLB Network. The fourth-year opt-out with the seventh-year option structure was first relayed by Joel Sherman of the New York Post. The $5MM buyout and $25MM salary for the final year were first relayed by Heyman. The lack of a no-trade clause was first reported by Sherman.

Free Agent Notes: Correa, Braves, Story, Tigers, Cueto

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The Braves were somewhat surprisingly connected to Carlos Correa prior to the lockout, and the two sides did re-engage to some extent before Correa signed with the Twins, though The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports that Atlanta didn’t make Correa an offer.  It was actually agent Scott Boras who reached out to the Braves as he was gauging the market for his client, and Rosenthal writes that Boras “floated” the same three-year, $105.3MM deal with two opt-outs that Correa eventually signed with Minnesota.

While nothing came of these negotiations, Rosenthal does wonder if Correa (assuming he opts out) might be a target for the Braves next winter, as incumbent shortstop Dansby Swanson will be a free agent.  Signing Correa to a long-term deal would surely require Atlanta GM Alex Anthopoulos to make his biggest expenditure yet, though the Braves will have quite a bit of money coming off the books in the form of Swanson, Kenley Jansen, and depending on club options, Charlie Morton and Will Smith.

More from around the league…

  • The Giants and Astros were the other finalists for Trevor Story’s services, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports (Twitter link).  Expanding on San Francisco’s interest, NBC Sports Bay Area’s Alex Pavlovic writes that the Giants “did recruit him quite a bit,” even if “a few of their people always felt [Story] was headed for Boston.”  Among other suitors, The Athletic’s Dan Hayes writes that the Twins discussed multiple contract scenarios with Story but the team’s preference seemed to be a pricey but shorter-term contract, like Minnesota’s eventual three-year, $105.3MM deal with Carlos Correa.
  • The Tigers were known to be looking at all of the “big six” free agent shortstops, and signed Javier Baez to a six-year, $140MM deal prior to the lockout.  There wasn’t much known about the Tigers’ negotiations with Story, though Evan Petzold of The Detroit Free Press reports that “Story wasn’t interested in the Tigers’ proposed contract structure.”  This is an interesting wrinkle considering that Story also got six years and $140MM from the Red Sox, though Baez’s salary is a bit backloaded and he can opt out of the deal following the 2023 season.  Story’s deal also has an opt-out decision but not until after the 2025 season, plus the Sox can overwrite Story’s opt-out by exercising a club option for a seventh year.
  • In other Tigers news, GM Al Avila told Petzold and other reporters that the club is “done” their major offseason shopping after signing Michael Pineda for the back of the rotation.  Detroit had one of the more aggressive and active winters of any club, and Avila and his front office also explored many other options besides the players they did acquire via trades and free agent deals.  In regards to the Pineda contract, for instance, the Tigers looked at several other available veterans who ended up signing elsewhere, and Petzold adds that Detroit also considered Johnny Cueto.  Last month, MLBTR’s Steve Adams explored Cueto’s free agent case, arguing that the 36-year-old was still a pretty decent option for teams looking for relatively inexpensive rotation depth.

Latest On Trevor Story

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The Rangers are one of the latest clubs to be linked with free agent shortstop Trevor Story, per Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News. On the surface, it might seem rather absurd that either the Rangers or Story would entertain a union. The Rangers, after all, have already signed two of the top free agent shortstops on the market in Corey Seager and Marcus Semien.

But the Rangers have a hole at third base right now, and if Story is indeed willing to entertain a position change and/or a short-term contract, which is the latest, then Story’s fit with in Texas is actually much smoother than it seems at first glance. Even if Story isn’t the target, the Rangers are known to be on the lookout for a third baseman, going so far as to approach the recently-retired Kyle Seager about the possibility of playing along his younger brother in Texas. Seager the elder kindly declined, the offer, however, per Jon Heyman of the MLB Network (via Twitter).

Beyond Story, there aren’t a lot of options left in free agency for the Rangers to add a third baseman. The players available – Jed Lowrie, Asdrubal Cabrera, Starlin Castro, Todd Frazier – are veterans who don’t necessarily upgrade on Texas’ in-house options. Right now, the Rangers would field a third base by committee approach while awaiting the arrival and good health of prospect Josh Jung. Even though he’s injured, Jung’s presence means that the Rangers might only be interested in securing Story if they can do so with a very short-term deal.

Without Story, Andy Ibanez, Nick Solak, and Brad Miller are all candidates to get regular playing time at the hot corner. The Rangers also recently signed Matt Carpenter and Charlie Culberson to minor league deals.

If the Rangers were to end up signing Story, it would be a fairly remarkable sequence events, not only because it would mean a 102-loss team signing three of the top free agent shortstops in a single offseason, but because of the sequence of events that have led the Rangers and Story to a place where this could even be possible.

It wasn’t long ago that the Rangers had Isiah Kiner-Falefa ready to return to the hot corner to be their regular third baseman. But when the Rangers traded Kiner-Falefa to the Twins for catcher Mitch Garver, the machinations of the offseason really kicked into high gear. Kiner-Falefa ended up as the Yankees’ pick at shortstop (at least for now), which opened up shortstop again in Minnesota, improbably, for a short-term pact with Carlos Correa. If Story is willing to take a deal similar in style to Correa’s, the Rangers could swoop in and be the beneficiary.

Of course, they’re not the only team with interest. The Yankees themselves have recently been tied to Story as well, despite their recent acquisition of Kiner-Falefa and Josh Donaldson. The Red Sox are also lurking, though like the Rangers, they’d ask Story to move off his preferred position.

Heyman suggests that the Yankees and Astros “likely have an edge” to sign Story because they would allow him to remain at shortstop. The Yankees had reportedly discussed a four-year contract with Correa that included opt-outs before he signed with Minnesota, per Andy Martino of SNY (via Twitter). A similar contract structure might be enough to reel in Story, assuming a more modest AAV. Story won’t come cheap, but he’ll be cheaper than Correa, which seems to be fueling the Yankees’ interest. All that said, it’s a bit of an overcrowded fit, with Anthony Rizzo now penciled in at first base, Giancarlo Stanton locking down the DH spot, and Gleyber Torres, Kiner-Falefa, and Donaldson already potentially cutting into DJ LeMahieu’s playing time.

The Rockies made one last call to Story before inking Kris Bryant, per The Athletic’s Nick Groke, but that door appears to be closed. From the same division, the Giants are the other team that have been mentioned as a potential suitor for Story. The Giants have Brandon Crawford at short, Evan Longoria at third, and Tommy La Stella at second, a trio that would certainly make room for Story, should that be his ultimate landing spot.

Trevor Story Reportedly Choosing Among Four Teams

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TODAY: Story has “multiple new suitors” as of this morning, per Jon Heyman of the MLB Network  (via Twitter). The Twins’ signing of Carlos Correa last night could certainly prompt some new conversations now that Story is the last of the big names on the market. Along with the Giants and Red Sox, Heyman names the Rangers, Astros, and Yankees as teams who have potentially opened up conversations with Story.

Heyman adds a few other notes, saying that Story still prefers to play shortstop, though he’s said to be open to a position change. He is also open to a short-term deal in the vein of the one signed by Correa, tweets Heyman.

5:37pm: Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic tweets that the Red Sox are indeed “firmly” involved in the running for Story.

1:05pm: Free-agent shortstop Trevor Story is mulling opportunities with four teams and expects to make a decision relatively soon, tweets MLB Network’s Jon Heyman. Both the Giants and Red Sox are in the mix for Story, per Heyman, who notes that the longtime Rockies shortstop is now open to a “short-term” position change, if necessary. That’s a departure from earlier in the winter, when his strong preference was to remain at shortstop. Heyman adds that Story is prioritizing signing with a win-now team.

It’s not clear which other clubs remain in the market, though the Twins and Mariners are among the clubs that have expressed interest throughout the offseason. Minnesota’s interest came to light earlier in the week, after the Twins succeeded in unloading the remainder of Josh Donaldson’s contract in a trade with the Yankees (another rumored Story suitor earlier this winter). The Twins could offer a clear everyday role at shortstop, but if Story is prioritizing a winning club, it’s a bit of a tougher sell for a 73-win Twins club — even if they’ve acquired Sonny Gray and made some other moves signaling a desire to contend in 2022.

The Mariners, meanwhile, hoped to sign Story to play second base earlier in the winter. With Story then apparently set on sticking at shortstop, the M’s acquired Eugenio Suarez alongside Jesse Winker in a deal with the Reds. Suarez and fellow offseason trade acquisition Adam Frazier appear set to man third base and second base, respectively, though ever-active Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto could always look for some further dealings to create more opportunity if he indeed covets Story.

It should be noted that while the words “short-term” don’t necessarily mean that Story is open to a short-term deal just yet. For instance, the general expectation is that Red Sox shortstop Xander Bogaerts will opt out of the final three years of his contract following the 2022 season. Story could technically sign a long-term deal in Boston, play second base for one season, and then slide over as the everyday shortstop if an when Bogaerts departs. That’s an entirely speculative scenario, to be clear, but one that is fairly easy to envision.

As for the Giants, they’ve generally shown an aversion to long-term, nine-figure contracts. Any deal with Story, then, would either require him to take a short-term pact of require an exception to the Farhan Zaidi-led front office’s philosophy on long-term commitments. Were Story willing to change positions, he could slide in at second base in San Francisco and push Tommy La Stella into a versatile utility role. Depending on Evan Longoria’s health, Story could also conceivably spend some time at the hot corner, teaming with Brandon Crawford to form a dynamic left-side defense.

Red Sox Notes: Free Agency, Bogaerts, Payroll

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The Red Sox have signed five free agent pitchers — Michael Wacha, James Paxton, Rich Hill, Matt Strahm and Jake Diekman — so far this winter. Their only meaningful change on the position player front, though, was arguably a downgrade in 2022. An hour before the lockout, Boston traded Hunter Renfroe to the Brewers in a deal that brought Jackie Bradley Jr. back to Fenway Park.

While the Sox have yet to pull off a meaningful upgrade to their position player mix, they’ve been at least loosely tied to a few of free agency’s top names. Jon Heyman of the MLB Network suggested this morning they could be in the mix for Freddie Freeman. They’re reportedly among the teams in the running for star NPB outfielder Seiya Suzuki. Before the lockout, reports tied them to each of Carlos Correa and Trevor Story.

There are myriad possibilities the Boston front office could pursue, a fact chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom acknowledged when speaking with reporters yesterday (via Jen McCaffrey of the Athletic). “We talked about this before the lockout … that we do still want to add position players to the group,” Bloom said. “The (Renfroe) trade we made on December 1 kind of flipped our lineup balance a little bit to where we have an opening for a right-handed bat. That said, in this period, especially with so much going on and so many conversations, we want to be nimble enough to take advantage of all opportunities.”

Bloom declined to specify an area of positional target, pointing to the flexibility Enrique Hernández affords the club with his ability to capably man both center field and second base. That’s been reinforced by the wide array of players they’ve reportedly inquired about, but their ties to the top two free agent shortstops are made more difficult by the presence of their All-Star in-house option there.

Speaking with reporters (including Christopher Smith of MassLive) this afternoon, Xander Bogaerts didn’t sound enamored with the possibility of changing positions to accommodate an external addition. “I’m a shortstop, man. That’s where I’ve played my whole career and obviously a position I take a lot of pride in,” the 29-year-old said. “I love being there.” Bogaerts said he and the team haven’t broached the possibility of a position change.

If Bogaerts remains steadfastly against moving off shortstop, that’d complicate any efforts by the Red Sox to make a legitimate push for Correa or Story. Correa is one of the game’s preeminent defenders at the position, coming off a Gold Glove winning campaign. Story is reportedly intent on signing with a team that’ll keep him at shortstop. It seems unlikely at this point that either will sign with a team that’s unwilling to make space for them at the infield’s most demanding position.

Unlike Correa or Story, Bogaerts doesn’t have the freedom to choose a team for 2022. Yet he will have the option of testing the open market next offseason, as he can opt out of the final three years and $60MM on his deal at the end of this season. Given how well he’s played in recent seasons, he’s certainly on a path towards triggering the opt-out, leaving Bloom and his staff to determine whether they want earmark some future funds away for a potential extension. (Star third baseman Rafael Devers is down to his final two years of arbitration control as well).

The Red Sox should have plenty of long-term flexibility, however. Jason Martinez of Roster Resource projects their luxury tax payroll for the 2022 season at $213MM, a fair bit shy of the $230MM base tax threshold. Looking ahead to 2023, a wide swath of post-2022 free agents and a potential Bogaerts opt-out could see that number plummet to just $60MM, leaving plenty of spots to be filled on the team’s active roster and a huge amount of funds with which to fill them. Bloom acknowledged as much, teasing that future financial flexibility “opens more options for us, maybe (more) than we’ve been working with the last couple years.”

Mariners Acquire Jesse Winker, Eugenio Suarez From Reds

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The Mariners made a massive addition to their lineup, announcing the acquisition of star outfielder Jesse Winker and third baseman Eugenio Suárez from the Reds. Seattle will reportedly assume the entirety of the three years and $35MM remaining on Suárez’s contract. In return, they’re sending pitching prospect Brandon Williamson, outfielder Jake Fraley, right-hander Justin Dunn and a player to be named later to Cincinnati.

Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto has been open about his hunt for offensive help throughout the winter. Seattle already signed reigning AL Cy Young winner Robbie Ray to a five-year contract, but they hadn’t previously done a whole lot to bolster the offense aside from a deal that brought in Adam Frazier from the Padres.

Winker got his due as a first-time All-Star last season, but he’s quietly been an excellent hitter for some time. He’s had a wRC+ of 127 or better (output at least 27 percentage points above the league average) in four of his five career seasons. The former supplemental first-rounder has been particularly impressive the past couple years. Going back to the start of the 2020 campaign, he owns a .292/.392/.552 line with 36 home runs over 668 plate appearances.

Last year, he tallied 485 trips to the dish and hit a personal-best .305/.394/.556 with a strong 10.9% walk rate and a 15.5% strikeout percentage that’s more than seven points lower than the league average. Winker rarely swings and misses or chases pitches outside the strike zone, and he’s capable of doing plenty of damage when he makes contact. He posted well above-average marks in terms of barrel rate, hard contact percentage and average exit velocity.

It’s easy to see the appeal for Seattle in adding that kind of offensive firepower to the lineup. Despite winning 90 games, the Mariners didn’t have an especially productive offense last year. Seattle hitters ranked just 21st in team wRC+ (excluding pitchers). They finished 22nd in total runs scored. Winker should be a massive boon to a unit that’ll need to improve if they’re to snap a 20-year playoff drought.

That said, Winker isn’t entirely without flaws. He’s limited to the corner outfield defensively, and he’s never rated favorably in the eyes of public metrics. Defensive Runs Saved has pegged him as 20 runs below average in 2,335 2/3 career innings in the corners (in addition to three runs below average in 138 innings as a center fielder). Statcast’s Outs Above Average has him at -21 plays as a big leaguer, including a -7 mark last season.

The left-handed hitting Winker also has some of the league’s most notable platoon splits. He’s been downright elite in his career against right-handed pitching (.313/.405/.556), but his numbers without the platoon advantage (.188/.305/.295) have been unimpressive. Winker’s probably not a strict platoon player — he does at least draw a boatload of walks against southpaws — but his impact has been concentrated to feasting on righties.

Perhaps of more concern than any aspect of his talent, though, has been his lack of volume. Winker has gone on the injured list in every full season of his MLB career. Heading into last season, the 28-year-old had never tallied even 400 plate appearances in a big league campaign. He picked up a personal-high in playing time last year, but he ended the season on the IL after suffering an intercostal strain in mid-August (from which he unsuccessfully tried to return in September).

That all makes Winker a tricky player to value, but there’s little question he’ll improve Seattle’s overall offense. He’ll presumably step in as the M’s regular left fielder, joining an outfield that could feature Jarred Kelenic in center and Mitch Haniger in right. Former Rookie of the Year Kyle Lewis is coming off another serious knee injury, and Dipoto told reporters (including Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times) he’s unlikely to be ready for the start of the season as they proceed with caution in his recovery. Former top prospect Taylor Trammell and utilityman Dylan Moore could be depth options behind the presumptive season-opening trio of Winker, Kelenic and Haniger. Julio Rodriguez, among the top handful of prospects in the game, mashed at Double-A at the end of last season.

Winker will probably be in the Pacific Northwest for at least the next two seasons. He’s projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a $6.8MM salary via arbitration this year. He’ll be controllable via that process once more next winter before reaching free agency in advance of his age-30 season.

In order to entice the Reds to part with a player of Winker’s caliber, the M’s are taking on far more money than just his projected arbitration figures. Cincinnati signed Suárez to a $66MM extension in March 2018, which will pay him a bit more than $13MM annually for the next three seasons. (The deal also includes a $15MM club option for 2025). Initially, that looked to be a shrewd investment by the Cincinnati front office, as Suárez went on to earn down-ballot MVP support in each of the following two years. Yet after combining for a .277/.362/.550 line over that stretch, he’s struggled the past couple seasons.

Suárez hit .202/.312/.470 during the shortened 2020 campaign. That’s a ghastly batting average, but he offset it somewhat with a robust 13% walk rate and 15 homers in only 231 plate appearances. However, his issues at the plate mounted last year. His walk percentage dipped to a solid but no longer elite 9.8%, not sufficient to make up for an even lower .198 batting average. Suárez reached base at only a .286 clip — the sixth-lowest mark among the 135 players who totaled 500+ plate appearances. He still hit for power (31 homers), but the on-base issues and his inability to successfully acclimate to an ill-advised move from third base to shortstop kept his overall production in the realm of replacement level.

Clearly, the Mariners assumed Suárez’s deal as a means to acquire Winker. That said, it seems likely they’ll give him some opportunity to try and right the ship in his new environs. Seattle bought out longtime third baseman Kyle Seager at the end of the year. Abraham Toro looks like the in-house favorite for playing time at the hot corner, but Toro can bounce between the corners and second base as a bat-first utility option as well. Divish tweets that Suárez is likely to step in as the primary third baseman, at least to begin the year, with Toro deployed around the diamond as needed.

The acquisitions of Suárez and Winker will add around $20MM to the Mariners’ 2022 books. That puts this year’s estimated expenditures at $106MM, per Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. That’s well above last year’s season-opening $73MM mark but nowhere close to franchise-record payrolls that exceeded $150MM from 2017-18. Precisely how much remains in the coffers isn’t clear, although it seems they’re content with the position player group. Dipoto told reporters (including Daniel Kramer of MLB.com) the club was unlikely to make further moves on that side of the ball. Seattle had been linked to big-ticket free agents like Kris Bryant and Trevor Story this offseason, but Dipoto called their pursuits of free agent hitters “dead ends.”

The Winker acquisition marked another aggressive move for a win-now Mariners team, but it’s a continuation of payroll-cutting efforts for the Reds. Cincinnati traded away Tucker Barnhart and lost Wade Miley on waivers for little to no return in November. They’ve listened to trade offers on their top three starting pitchers, and they moved Sonny Gray to the Twins for pitching prospect Chase Petty over the weekend.

This afternoon’s swap is the most notable to date, as the Reds slice around $20MM in 2022 commitments off the books. Of arguably greater import, they find a way out of the future commitments to Suárez. Only Joey Votto ($25MM) and Mike Moutakas ($18MM) have guaranteed money on the Cincinnati books in 2023, and the payroll slate is completely clean by 2024. Reds brass has pushed back against the idea they’re orchestrating a full teardown, but the recent subtractions of Winker and Gray make it more difficult for what had been an 83-79 team to contend this season.

Against that backdrop, it wouldn’t be surprising to see further subtractions by Cincinnati. Luis Castillo and Tyler Mahle each have two more seasons of arbitration control, as Winker did. Both pitchers would bring back a haul if the Reds made them available, particularly with the free agent market essentially now bereft of mid-rotation options.

Even if the Reds have further moves on the horizon, however, the players they bring back should all factor into the mix in short order. Fraley and Dunn are immediate big leaguers, and Fraley seems likely to step right into the left field spot vacated by Winker’s departure. The left-handed hitter struggled in limited big league looks between 2019-20, but he showed reasonably well this past season.

Fraley picked up 265 plate appearances last year, hitting .210/.352/.369 with nine homers and ten steals. The batting average is obviously subpar, but the LSU product more than compensated with an elite 17.4% walk rate. Fraley’s extremely patient approach at the plate should make him a serviceable on-base option. He’s primarily been a left fielder in the big leagues, but he’s capable of covering center in a pinch. Fraley’s controllable through 2026 and isn’t on track to reach arbitration eligibility until 2024.

Dunn, meanwhile, is a former first-round pick who went to Seattle from the Mets in the Edwin Díaz/Robinson Canó trade. He’s made 25 starts over his three big league seasons, posting a 3.94 ERA in 102 2/3 innings. The 26-year-old’s peripherals don’t support that kind of run prevention; he’s benefitted from an unsustainable .205 opponents’ batting average on balls in play and has walked an untenable 15.5% of batters faced. Despite averaging a decent 93.8 MPH on his four-seam fastball last year, he only generated swinging strikes on 9.7% of his offerings (a bit below the 10.9% league mark for starters).

Like Fraley, Dunn is an affordable, MLB-ready piece though. He’s controllable through 2025 and won’t reach arbitration until next season. If the Reds do move one or both of Castillo and Mahle, Dunn could factor into the back of the rotation immediately. He might also be a candidate for a bullpen transfer — some prospect evaluators have long suggested he’d be a better fit in relief — where he could aid a Cincinnati bullpen that was among the league’s worst.

Fraley and Dunn are the more well-known parts of the return, but Williamson is quite likely the player the Reds value most of the trio. A second-round pick out of TCU in 2019, the southpaw has impressed evaluators since getting into pro ball. Baseball America ranked him as the game’s #83 overall prospect this winter (fifth in the Seattle system), noting that the 6’6″ lefty can run his fastball into the mid-90s and has a potential 70-grade curveball on the 20-80 scouting scale.

BA writes that the 23-year-old could develop into a #3/4 starter. FanGraphs slotted Williamson 61st on their recent Top 100 list, opining that control issues could limit his ability to work deep into games consistently but praising his repertoire and suggesting he could be “dominant” for five-six innings per start. Williamson pitched his way to Double-A last year, working 67 1/3 innings of 3.48 ERA ball with an excellent 33% strikeout rate and a fine 8.1% walk percentage. He seems likely to get a big league look at some point this season and may eventually work alongside college teammate Nick Lodolo in the Reds’ rotations of the future.

The Reds also pick up a player to be named later who is reportedly a notable part of the return. Moreover, general manager Nick Krall told reporters (including Mark Sheldon of MLB.com) they plan to reinvest some of the money they saved in free agency. Cincinnati fans may roll their eyes at their assertion, given the club’s cost-cutting efforts to date, but Krall reasserted that this was not going to be a multi-year teardown.

The deal offers a major shakeup to both organizations. The M’s continue to push forward in an effort to hang with the Astros (and perhaps the Angels) at the top of the AL West. The Reds’ hopes of contending were dealt another blow, but the front office continues to maintain they’re not punting on the 2022 campaign. Whether Cincinnati’s future moves back up that assertion remains to be seen, but there’ll be no shortage of demand if they turn their attention to trading away either Castillo or Mahle.

Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported the Mariners were acquiring Winker. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reported the Mariners were acquiring Suárez and that the Reds were acquiring Fraley, Williamson and Dunn. Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported that Seattle was taking on the entirety of Suárez’s contract. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reported the Reds were acquiring a player to be named later who “enhances” the quality of their return.

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Twins Showing Interest In Trevor Story

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12:15pm: Story has already turned down at least one nine-figure offer from a team that wanted him to change positions, tweets MLB Network’s Jon Heyman. Story’s strong preference has been to remain at shortstop — a desire that the Twins can clearly accommodate if they’re comfortable with Story’s price tag.

12:30am: The Twins have completed a whirlwind series of trades over the past 36 hours, shipping out Mitch Garver, Josh Donaldson, Isiah Kiner-Falefa (briefly acquired for Garver) and prospect Chase Petty (their top pick from last summer’s draft) while acquiring Sonny Gray, Gio Urshela, Gary Sanchez and a pair of pitching prospects. It’s a dizzying gambit, but it’s quite likely that Minnesota is only getting started. That frenzy cleared roughly $41MM from the Twins’ books, and their 2022 payroll is at a projected $94MM presently — about $40MM shy of their franchise-record.

One area the Twins could look to spend some of the money saved in that Donaldson swap is back at shortstop, where they briefly filled a need via the acquisition of Kiner-Falefa before sending him to the Yankees in tonight’s Donaldson blockbuster. To that end, Dan Hayes of The Athletic reports that the Twins have been in touch with the representatives for free-agent shortstop Trevor Story.

That Kiner-Falefa’s time with the Twins proved to be only a day was surely music to the ears of Story’s agents. The Yankees had made clear that they planned to eschew a big-name signing at shortstop, instead preferring a more short-term bridge to top prospects Anthony Volpe and Oswald Peraza. The trade of Kiner-Falefa not only gives the Twins a potential opening at shortstop — though it should be noted that Urshela can handle that position if needed — but also freed up some additional money to spend.

Looking past the $94MM projected on their 2022 books, the Twins only have about $39.5MM in guarantees on the 2023 ledger. They’ll quite likely pick up the $12MM option on the newly acquired Gray, but even still, that leaves ample room for another weighty salary — particularly since Minnesota will have a fairly light arbitration class in 2023. By the time 2024 rolls around, the Twins have less than $20MM in guaranteed money on the books. Again, that number will jump due to arbitration and, more notably, the $10MM and $10.5MM options they hold on Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco. Even with those contracts, a Story-sized salary could easily be accommodated.

The 29-year-old Story had something of a disappointing season overall, as an elbow issue impacted him at the plate and dragged down his throwing ability in the field. That said, Story’s .251/.329/.471 slash and 24 home runs in 595 plate appearances were still solid, and he has a track record of strong production on both sides of the ball. Dating back to 2018, he’s a .281/.348/.532 hitter with 107 home runs and 85 steals in 2166 plate appearances. Hitters who call Coors Field their home tend to have pronounced splits that draw the ire of skeptics, but Story has been about 17% better than league average with the bat since ’18 even after weighting for his home park (117 wRC+).

Defensively, Story’s 2021 was something of a mixed bag. Both Defensive Runs Saved (+9) and Ultimate Zone Rating (+3.6) felt he was characteristically strong with the glove, but Statcast’s Outs Above Average pegged him at a career worst mark of minus-7. Outside of that one OAA mark, though, Story has a sterling defensive reputation and the gaudy metrics to match. He ranks seventh in all of Major League Baseball, regardless of position, with 69 Defensive Runs Saved dating back to 2016. His 15.4 UZR in that time isn’t quite so dominant but still ranks 41st among all big leaguers, and OAA feels he’s been a strong defender outside of 2021 (+18 dating back to 2016).

As previously alluded to, Minnesota needn’t necessarily feel obligated to make a big splash at shortstop. Urshela can man the position at a satisfactory level, and they have minor leaguer Jose Miranda, who exploded into top-100 prospect territory with a massive .344/.401/.572 showing between Double-A and Triple-A in 2021. Miranda is knocking on the door to the big leagues as it is, and his best position is widely considered to be third base. That said, there’d be little harm in getting him a further look in the Majors, and the depth afforded by having each of Urshela, Story, Polanco, Miranda and Luis Arraez would be enviable.

Whether Story ultimately lands in Minnesota, the Twins will apparently be involved in the bidding to an extent. The largest free-agent contract the Twins have ever given out was Donaldson’s four-year, $92MM contract, and Story could well topple that mark this winter, wherever he signs. With Donaldson off the books, Byron Buxton signed to a seven-year/$100MM contract and a generally clean payroll slate after the ’23 season, Minnesota can afford to make a splash on just about any free agent that’s left on the market. That doesn’t make them any kind of lock to ultimately sign Story or another big-ticket free agent, but the Twins are making things interesting after laying largely dormant prior to the lockout.

Mariners On The Hunt For Right-Handed Power Bat

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In a profile of Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale outlined the team’s remaining offseason plans, noting specifically that Seattle hopes to add a right-handed power bat (ideally at third to replace the recently retired Kyle Seager) and a left-handed bat in the outfield. In addition to landing 2021 NL All-Star Adam Frazier in a November trade with the Padres, Dipoto already made one of the bigger offseason splashes of the pre-lockout free agent frenzy, inking reigning AL Cy Young winner Robbie Ray to a five-year, $115MM deal to anchor manager Scott Servais’ rotation.

Given what’s already a relatively crowded outfield picture in Seattle (Mitch Haniger, Jarred Kelenic, 2020 AL Rookie of the Year Kyle Lewis, and uber-prospect Julio Rodriguez all figure to see significant time there, as could Frazier and former top-100 prospect Taylor Trammell), the outfielder Nightengale suggests Dipoto is targeting is likely to be of the versatile bench-bat sort. Any of Odubel Herrera, Travis Jankowski, Billy Hamilton, Gerardo Parra, Matt Joyce, or Billy McKinney could come without a significant commitment, and Dipoto might check in on Joc Pederson or Eddie Rosario if either is willing to take on a part-time role.

The right-handed power bat is unlikely to come cheaply, however. The obvious option on the current market is Kris Bryant, and it’s no surprise that nary a report on Bryant passes without a prominent reference to the Mariners. Given how much money Dipoto is known to have left to spend — the Mariners, who have one of the youngest rosters in the bigs, have just under $87MM in salary committed to the 2022 roster (per Roster Resource) — Bryant remains a very live possibility, as might Seiya Suzuki (though he’d contribute to the outfield glut). Trevor Story and (perhaps) Carlos Correa could also be on the table.

The presence of incumbent shortstop J.P. Crawford may be a roadblock to a major move at the position, since Dipoto has repeatedly stated that Crawford isn’t changing positions. The Fielding Bible ranked Crawford as the sixth-best defensive shortstop in baseball in 2021, though both Story and Correa ranked higher on that list. With Story reportedly uninterested in a position change and Correa on the hunt for a mega-deal, neither seems likely at this point barring a trade of Crawford for another piece.

With no other clear upgrade over utilityman Abraham Toro on the free agent market, Dipoto is likely to explore trade possibilities should Bryant sign elsewhere. With the A’s reportedly entering a fire sale, Matt Chapman is the obvious first port of call, though he’ll draw widespread interest and will command a small fortune in prospect capital. Seattle could also look to engage the Guardians on Jose Ramirez, though he’d take an even bigger bite out of the Seattle system than Chapman and is well on his way to an enormous payday when he becomes a free agent following the 2023 season. Josh Donaldson, who posted a solid-if-unspectacular .247/.352/.475 line in 135 games with the Twins in 2021, still has plenty of power and isn’t likely to cost much more than a willingness to eat a substantial chunk of the two years and $50MM (including an $8MM buyout of his 2024 option) remaining on his contract. The 2015 AL MVP could be an intriguing upside play, but he’d be a particularly risky bet for a club hoping to catapult into the upper echelons of the American League sooner rather than later.

Regardless of how Dipoto addresses the loss of Seager — indeed, he could well head into Opening Day with Toro manning the hot corner and reexamine the position at the trade deadline — the Mariners are sure to be a hot pick to take a major step forward in 2022 whenever the season gets rolling. After overachieving in 2021 with 90 wins and a spot at the periphery of playoff contention well into the season’s final week, the young M’s will be expected to contend for this year’s AL West title — particularly if, as expected, Correa doesn’t return to Houston. Should they add another big bat, don’t be surprised to see them picked as a dark horse to win a pennant as early as next season.

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