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Trade Candidate

AL West Notes: Rangers, Lyles, Astros, Díaz, Odorizzi, Javier

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Jordan Lyles won’t get turns as a traditional starter to open the season for the Rangers, and he’s not thrilled about it, per Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News (via Twitter). Rangers manager Chris Woodward told the 6’5″ right-hander that he’s likely headed for 50-60 pitch outings, at least to start the season. Lyles surrendered more earned runs than any other pitcher in 2020, finishing with a 7.02 ERA/5.95 FIP in 57 2/3 innings. Outside of a 2-inning outing to start the season, Lyles served as a starter, though he did twice enter the game following an opener. Despite his struggles, Lyles averaged 88 pitches per outing as a starter/follower. The Rangers presumably want to protect Lyles while getting an extended look at some of their younger hurlers like Taylor Hearn and Brett Martin. Staying in Texas…

  • Chander Rome of the Houston Chronicle wonders if Aledmys Díaz might make some sense as a trade candidate for the Astros. The utility man is set to make $3MM this year, and the Astros would love to trim a little off the top of their payroll. Díaz has slashed .265/.337/.470 in 306 plate appearances the past two seasons as one of the first guys off the bench. Robel Garcia and Abraham Toro are competing for the second utility guy off the bench, and it certainly makes some sense to consider a Díaz trade if there’s one to be had. That said, Diaz is the best fit as a backup at shortstop, and Carlos Correa hasn’t exactly been an iron man. The Astros could also try to move Brooks Raley ($2MM), Joe Smith ($4MM) or Martin Maldonado ($3.5MM) as a way to trim the payroll, though the latter isn’t particularly likely.
  • Elsewhere on the Astros’ roster, they’re going to need to utilize their pitching depth from the jump. Recently-signed Jake Odorizzi isn’t likely to be ready for opening day, neither is Pedro Baez, currently on the COVID-19 injured list. Cristian Javier is also a bit of a question mark, not having pitched in a game since March 2, writes MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart. Zack Greinke, Lance McCullers Jr., and Jose Urquidy remain at the top of the rotation, but the final two spots may be up for grabs. If Javier and Odorizzi aren’t ready for opening day, Luis García and Bryan Abreu are back in camp and ready to audition.

The Rockies’ Top Trade Chip In A Potential Rebuild

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Once all of the details are ironed out and Nolan Arenado has been officially traded to the Cardinals, it’s possible that Rockies owner Dick Monfort and GM Jeff Bridich won’t mention the word “rebuild” when explaining the trade to fans and media.  It could be sold as a perfect storm of a superstar player’s displeasure with the front office coinciding with an unprecedented economic downturn, leading the Rox with no choice but to move Arenado despite the team’s full intention to contend in 2021.

But, let’s be real — the Rockies face a big uphill battle in the NL West.  The Dodgers and Padres are arguably the two best teams in baseball, the Giants are a looming threat considering all their available payroll space following the 2021 season, and even the Diamondbacks could be primed for a rebound considering they couldn’t seem to catch a break last year.  After two consecutive losing seasons and the impending loss of Arenado, Colorado seems like a prime candidate to blow things up.  Several trade candidates remain on the roster, each with some obstacle that could limit what the Rockies could receive back in terms of high-quality young talent.

Trevor Story’s name has been whispered in trade rumors all winter, but Story is only under contract through the 2021 season and many of the top contenders have already addressed their shortstop needs.  Charlie Blackmon’s bat wasn’t quite as potent in 2020 as in past years, and trade suitors may balk at the $52MM (in guaranteed money and in two years of player options) owed to Blackmon through the 2023 season.  Scott Oberg’s continued health issues make him a question mark going forward.  Kyle Freeland and Antonio Senzatela each have three years of team control remaining and would definitely get some trade attention, though neither pitcher has been consistent enough to merit a blue-chip return.

Assuming the Rockies don’t go totally scorched-earth with a rebuild and start shopping former top prospect Brendan Rodgers or current top prospect Zac Veen, that leaves one player who would instantly bring back a big trade package.  From an overall consideration of team control, financial cost, and Major League track record, German Marquez is not just the Rockies’ best trade chip, but one of the more intriguing trade chips in all of baseball.

Let’s begin with Marquez’s underrated statistical record, as only 14 pitchers have accumulated more fWAR than Marquez (12.2) over the last four seasons.  Marquez has a 4.21 ERA and an above-average 24.2K% and 17.8K-BB% over 613 2/3 innings since the start of the 2017 season.  He averaged 177 frames per year during the regulation-length 2017-19 campaigns, while tossing a league-high 81 2/3 innings in the abbreviated 2020 season.  One knock on Marquez is that he allows quite a bit of hard contact, but he has limited the damage thanks to an ability to keep the ball on the ground (47.6% career grounder rate).

These are solid numbers for any hurler, but particularly impressive for someone who pitches their home games at Coors Field.  As you might expect, Marquez has some pretty notable home/away splits — a 3.51 ERA in 341 1/3 road innings during his career, and a 5.10 ERA over 293 innings in Denver.  It is certainly possible that the right-hander could reach another level of performance if he didn’t pitch in such a hitter-friendly environment, which makes him all the more interesting for trade suitors.

Marquez is entering his age-26 season, and is already locked up through at least the 2023 season on a five-year, $43MM contract extension signed in April 2019.  $36MM remains owed to Marquez over the final three guaranteed years of that contract, which includes the $2.5MM buyout of a $16MM club option for 2024.  Less than two years later, the Marquez extension still looks like a very canny move from Bridich and company, if for not quite the reason they expected — this affordable price tag makes Marquez a fit for almost every contender in the league, pandemic-lowered revenues notwithstanding.

While Marquez hasn’t had a Cy Young Award-winning peak like Blake Snell, Marquez is over two years younger than Snell, has fewer injury concerns, and is owed less money than the $39MM Snell is scheduled to make through the 2023 season.  By that token, Colorado is certainly within its rights to ask for a trade return similar to what the Rays received for dealing Snell to the Padres this offseason.  An enterprising team with some payroll space to spare could also sweeten the pot by offering to take some more money off the Rockies’ hands — perhaps the last $11MM remaining on Ian Desmond’s contract, in terms of salary, the buyout of his 2022 club option, and his $1MM assignment bonus in the event of a trade.

It remains to be seen if the Rockies will start a full-fledged rebuild immediately once Arenado is gone, or perhaps if the team will take the rebuild route whatsoever.  There’s a ticking clock on a Story considering his lack of remaining control, but the Rockies might not be in a particular rush to move Marquez quite yet since he is still signed through 2023.  The argument can be made, however, that Marquez will never be as valuable as he is right now, so if the Rockies did want to start looking to the future, the time is now to maximize their return.

Trade Candidate: Jon Gray

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Much has been written about the Rockies potentially trading stars Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story. There has been decidedly less chatter about starter Jon Gray. On the surface, though, the right-hander looks to be one of the more sensible trade candidates around the league.

That’s mostly a function of his contractual status. Gray has five years and sixty-two days of MLB service, meaning he’ll hit free agency at the end of next season. Meanwhile, contending in the NL West will be an uphill battle for the Rockies. The Dodgers are a perennial juggernaut, while the already-contending Padres made a trio of impact additions last month. The Giants also had a decent 2020 season; the Diamondbacks did not, but Arizona has largely the same roster that won 85 games and finished second in the division the year before. As Dan Szymborksi of FanGraphs examined this week, the Rockies look more likely to finish near the bottom of the division than the top.

Colorado projects as a longshot for the postseason, particularly if MLB returns to a five-team-per-league playoff structure in 2021. There’s a case to be made the Rockies should move short-term players for future value. The organization needn’t embark on a full rebuild, but a single year of production from Gray (or Story, for that matter) would probably be worth more to another team than it would to Colorado.

Admittedly, Gray is coming off a dismal season. He pitched just eight games with terrible results before being shut down with inflammation in his throwing shoulder. Gray’s velocity, strikeout and ground ball rates all dropped precipitously from past seasons. He ultimately posted an ERA just under 7.

Yet the former third overall pick looked like a capable mid-rotation starter entering 2020. Over the three prior seasons, Gray pitched to a 4.31 ERA (a deceptively solid mark in the hitters’ haven of Coors Field) across 432.2 innings. In that time, his strikeout (24.2%), walk (7.5%) and ground ball (48.8%) rates were each better than league average. As is, Gray was a productive starting pitcher. There remained some hope the former top prospect could yet emerge as a top-of-the-rotation arm. His fastball was in the mid 90’s and he flashed a pair of swing-and-miss breaking pitches.

After his disastrous 2020, Gray would be a reclamation project. But it’s easy to imagine plenty of contenders having interest in acquiring him. Eight poor starts don’t negate what Gray had achieved in the seasons before. His ending last season on the injured list is a red flag, but it’s notable the Rockies seemingly believe he can return to form this year. Otherwise, it wouldn’t have made sense for the Colorado front office to tender him an arbitration contract, projected in the not-insignificant $6MM range, as they did in November.

There has been no indication the Rockies are actually exploring trades involving Gray this offseason. On paper, though, Colorado looks a reasonable bet to subtract short-term pieces from the major league roster. Gray’s pre-2020 track record and past flashes of high-end raw stuff could entice some teams closer to contention to call the Rockies, particularly in a winter without many obvious rotation upgrades available in free agency.

Trade Candidate: Francisco Mejia

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The Padres overhauled their catching mix at the August 31 trade deadline, acquiring Austin Nola and Jason Castro in separate trades with the Mariners and Angels, while Luis Torrens went to Seattle as part of the Nola trade and Austin Hedges was sent to the Indians as part of the trade return for Mike Clevinger.

The end result was that Francisco Mejia was the only catcher who entered and exited deadline season in a Padres uniform, though he wasn’t on the active roster.  Mejia was on the injured list due to a thumb contusion and, once activated, he played in only one more MLB game before being sent to the Padres’ alternate training site.  As we get deeper into the offseason, it’s fair to wonder whether that one September game (a pinch-hit appearance on Sept. 16) might also mark Mejia’s final outing as a Padre.

Nola is still the projected starter, but recent reports from Yadier Molina himself have connected San Diego to Molina’s free agent market.  Star catching prospect Luis Campusano also made his big league debut in 2020 and, perhaps tellingly, was included on the Padres’ postseason roster over Mejia as the third catcher.  However, Campusano’s status is currently up in the air following an October arrest for felony marijuana possession.

Given the uncertainty over Campusano and the chances that Molina could sign elsewhere, it’s quite possible that the Friars could simply hang onto Mejia and use him as Nola’s backup.  (If not Molina, another veteran catcher could be signed as further depth, perhaps to a minor league deal rather than the MLB contract Molina will demand.)  If the Padres did sign Molina or another noted veteran catcher, however, Mejia could suddenly be expendable.

It was back in July 2018 that Mejia was a much more prominent trade chip, as he was sent from the Indians to the Padres in exchange for both Brad Hand and Adam Cimber.  At the time, Mejia was widely considered one of baseball’s top minor leaguers, ranked as high as fifth in Baseball Prospectus’ top-100 prospect ranking prior to the 2018 season.  Over an even 2200 career plate appearances at the minor league level, Mejia has hit .295/.349/.462 with 58 home runs and looked all the world like a player ready for the Show.

Even in 2019, Mejia performed well enough in his first extended taste of Major League action that he seemed to be living up to the prospect hype.  Despite two separate IL stints due to a knee sprain and an oblique strain, Mejia still hit a respectable .265/.316/.438 over 244 PA in 2019.  Unfortunately, Mejia couldn’t come close to this form last season, hitting just .077/.143/.179 in 42 PA — with Hedges posting equally dismal numbers, it isn’t surprising that San Diego chose to shake up their catching corps at the deadline.

Mejia only turned 25 last month and is still close enough to his blue-chip prospect days that he would certainly generate some interest on the trade market.  Any number of teams would like to upgrade their catching situation, ranging both from rebuilding clubs to would-be contenders.  The Yankees, Phillies, Nationals, Mets, Braves, Marlins, Rays, Brewers, Reds, Angels, or Cardinals are some of the names in the latter group, and the two New York teams, St. Louis, and Anaheim have also been linked to Molina.

While lots of teams need catching, one of the outstanding questions about Mejia is whether or not he’ll ultimately stick at catcher over the long term.  Mejia saw some action as a corner outfielder when he was in Cleveland’s farm system, and he also played four MLB games as a left fielder for the Padres in 2019.  Obviously Mejia’s bat carries more value at catcher than at any other position, though showing an ability to at least passably play on the grass might not hurt Mejia’s trade value all that much, given how multi-positional versatility is so prized by modern front offices.

The Padres’ interest in Molina shows that the club has at least some inclination to alter its catching mix yet again, so this might be the position to watch since San Diego is otherwise pretty set elsewhere around the diamond.  Rather than again deal from their deep farm system, the Padres could prefer to move an MLB-ready player like Mejia who might be in need of a change of scenery.

Trade Candidate: Trevor Story

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There’s a strong case to be made that the Rockies out to auction off the rights to star shortstop Trevor Story this winter. While it’s tempting to hold tight and hope he can help lead a renaissance, it’s a fair sight easier to imagine that backfiring than working out.

The Rockies had a taste of short-season contention, but had a dreadful 2020 run deficit (275-353) and have played decisively sub-.500 ball since the start of 2019. There’s still a strong core of talent, but the path to contention is awfully questionable given the Rockies’ meager supporting cast and injury questions (Jon Gray, David Dahl, Scott Oberg) … not to mention the quality of the NL West competition.

The Colorado organization has a number of needs and unclear means to address them all sufficiently. The team has mostly finished paying for its recent swings and misses in free agency and has already begun drawing down payroll. But it’s still on track to spend north of $130MM (assuming they tender most arb-eligibles) even before making any additions. Owner Dick Monfort didn’t exactly suggest he’ll be buying up new talent, writing to season ticketholders that “there will be nothing normal about this offseason as the industry faces a new economic reality.”

It’s a scenario in which many teams will explore their options with quality veterans. But who to deal? The Rox dabbled in some major scenarios last winter but ultimately kept third baseman Nolan Arenado. It’d be awfully difficult to strike a reasonable deal now, given his hefty salary and subpar offensive season. Charlie Blackmon is too expensive to foist onto another team after a middling season. They could certainly move German Marquez, but that’d mean giving up a 25-year-old rotation building block with a good contract situation.

Enter Story, a mid-prime star shortstop who is still youthful (28 in ten days) but entering his final season of team control. It’s much the situation that Arenado was in a few years back, except that Story will command a rather less onerous salary ($17.5MM) than Arenado had lined up for his final season of arbitration.

Arenado ended up inking a monster extension rather than testing free agency. That’s an avenue here, too … in theory, anyway. Monfort certainly didn’t sound like he was plotting out another nine-figure deal. While Story would never have commanded Arenado-like money, and certainly won’t now during a pandemic, he’d still cost a pretty penny.

Make no mistake: Story is a truly elite position player. If anything, he’s underrated, perhaps due to his roller-coaster first two seasons in the majors. Since he settled in, Story has compiled the tenth-most fWAR in baseball over the past three years.

We honestly don’t need to dive in too far to understand the point here. Story once had big pop and a ton of strikeouts, but he figured out the latter problem without sapping his power. He drove his K rate down to 24.3% in the just-completed season and is still driving the ball with authority. He’s in the top 5% leaguewide in speed and plays outstanding defense.

How about the demand side? Story isn’t cheap, but he’s an absolute bargain who would instantly elevate a lineup. Acquiring him would only require a one-year commitment and bring with it the likelihood of a qualifying offer (with anticipated draft compensation) this time next year. There’s always the potential for an extension as well.

Demand may not be widespread — it’ll tick up next winter when several big-time shortstops hit the open market — but it’s not hard to envision teams having keen interest. The Angels, Reds, Phillies, and Yankees all make particular sense on paper. Story is good enough that a team could consider acquiring him and playing him at third base, or instead moving an existing shortstop to another spot on the diamond.

It’ll be hard for the Rockies to go forward with moving Story. Keeping him at least until mid-season would at least give the club a chance. Then again, it would also mean paying half his salary, risking injury or decline, and taking the qualifying offer off of the table (which will reduce the value that an acquiring team would anticipate receiving in a swap). Unless Monfort and GM Jeff Bridich are able to mount a surprise run at an extension with Story’s reps, biting the bullet and getting a trade done this winter looks to be the best option.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Giants More Likely To Buy Than Sell

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The San Francisco Giants are no longer viewed around the league as a team ripe for picking, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter). In fact, it’s now more likely that the Giants will look to add to their club rather than subtract.

At 15-19 the Giants sit 9 games back from the Dodgers for the division, but they’re only 2 games out of a wild card spot. Powered by surprising production from the likes of Mike Yastrzemski (2.1 fWAR), Donovan Solano (0.8 fWAR), Kevin Gausman (0.9 fWAR), and Austin Slater (1.1 fWAR), the Giants have been a surprisingly potent offensive club. They’ve been competitive on a night-to-night basis, and less than two days away from the deadline, the Giants could still go either way depending on their play this weekend. As of right now, other clubs suspect they’ll be buyers.

The Giants certainly weren’t viewed as contenders entering the season, and most probably wouldn’t put them in that camp even after a surprisingly competitive start, but with an expanded playoff field, they are as viable a postseason contender as anyone outside of Pittsburgh in a crowded National League playoff race. If they do end up buying, it’s safe to assume the Giants will still have an eye towards contention in future seasons.

Earlier tonight the Giants were reported to have interest in Jackie Bradley Jr.. Bradley isn’t the ideal candidate because he’s a free agent after the season, but San Francisco has need enough in the grass that they could look to add multiple outfielders. With limited options coming from so few non-contenders, the Giants may also simply see value in competing this season and exploring the cost of an upgrade even for this season alone. Besides, a defensive outfielder who could slide Yastrzemski back to the corner would seem to benefit the club on the whole. Alex Dickerson has struggled in left field with a triple slash of .195/.284/.351, and since Hunter Pence was DFA’ed, they have no clear everyday option in right.

On the roster, Solano has played a little in left and Mauricio Dubon also added an outfielder’s glove to his locker this winter, but both are natural infielders. Chris Shaw and Jaylin Davis are another pair of potential outfielders in the pool, though Shaw is a more natural first baseman and neither have proven track records at the major league level. San Francisco did recently add Luis Alexander Basabe and Daniel Robertson to their player pool, but neither have joined the active roster as of yet. Even so, Basabe fits the second camp as an unproven entity, while Robertson fits the first as a natural infielder.

San Francisco could also look to add to their pitching corps, which has been less successful than the offense, broadly speaking. Most of the rotation outside of Logan Webb and Tyler Anderson are heading towards free agency – another reason most expected the Giants to sell – but they could use another rotation arm regardless. Tyler Beede, Jeff Samardzija, and Drew Smyly are all on the injured list at present, while Gausman and Johnny Cueto have injury histories and Trevor Cahill left his start early today with left hip discomfort, per Maria I. Guardado of MLB.com.

Pirates Place Keone Kela, Colin Moran On Injured List

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The Pirates announced Thursday that they’ve placed right-hander Keone Kela and infielder Colin Moran on the injured list. Kela heads to the 10-day IL with forearm tightness, while Moran is on the 7-day concussion list. Both moves are retroactive to Aug. 24. Righty Nick Mears and infielder Will Craig were recalled in a pair of corresponding moves.

The IL placement for Kela substantially hampers the team’s ability to extract a meaningful return in a trade for the righty, who’d been the Pirates’ most obvious trade chip prior to Monday’s deadline. He can technically still be traded even while on the IL, but he won’t be eligible for activation until a few days after Monday’s trade deadline has passed. Considering that Kela is a free agent at season’s end, however, the Bucs could still try to move him for whatever they’re able to get.

Kela, 27, has been limited to just two innings in 2020 due to a positive Covid-19 test that caused him to miss all of Summer Camp and the forearm issue that prompted him to be lifted from last Friday’s relief outing. His fastball sat at 96.5 mph in his three outings this year — right in line with his career average — but that doesn’t guarantee the issue he’s facing to be minor. Kela has a strong track record dating back to his 2015 debut, but he’s obviously a wild card for the remainder of the year.

Moran himself could conceivably been a trade candidate on the heels of a huge start to the season. The former No. 6 overall pick is out to a .259/.326/.531 start with six homers and four doubles through 89 plate appearances. Moran’s 93.4 mph average exit velocity (per Statcast) is up more than five miles per hour from the 88.2 mph mark he logged in his first two years with Pittsburgh, and his 48.3 percent hard-hit rate absolutely dwarfs the 34.6 percent mark he posted in 2018-19. He’s controllable for three years beyond 2020, however, so a move involving him carries less urgency and wasn’t necessarily likely (as it was with Kela).

The O’s Intriguing Short-Season Trade Chip

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With MLB set to propose a half-season of 2020 baseball, followed by an expanded postseason, we could be on the verge of a campaign unlike any other. There’ll be one-off rules on a whole host of topics, among them the player transactions that take place before and during the season.

While we don’t yet know when and how players will be shuttled between rosters, we have a pretty clear picture of the competitive picture that awaits. This is going to be a sprint in which every game counts. Limping through the truncated regular season could leave a talented team outside the playoff picture, or in it but in a disadvantaged position. And the broadened postseason tourney will likewise enhance the importance of winning high-leverage situations.

For teams that are built to compete right now, there’s an opportunity to salvage something out of a season that’s already sure to be a promotional and financial disappointment. While everyone will be watching the bottom line and thinking about sustainability and cost-efficiency, now more than ever, it’s also going to be harder than ever to take a wait-and-see at the trade deadline approach to roster management.

There are loads of potential consequences here for every team. We’ll surely be exploring many of them as the situation gains clarity. The one highlighted here is far from the most important, but it’s indicative of the sort of shifts in the trade marketplace we might see.

In many respects, Orioles reliever Mychal Givens is the perfect trade candidate. Let us count the ways.

Most rebuilding teams have already dealt away their most obvious veteran trade pieces. But the Baltimore organization hadn’t received sufficiently enticing offers on Givens and didn’t feel compelled to move him just yet with one more season of arbitration control remaining. The idea, no doubt, was to let him (hopefully) mow down hitters over the first half of 2020 before cashing him in at the trade deadline. Contenders would feel justified in giving up more value since they’d control him for 2021.

Now, that plan has run into some difficulties … but also some added opportunity. We don’t know if there’ll be a typical trade deadline, but even if there is, it won’t involve a slow build-up that Orioles GM Mike Elias can use to develop scenarios surrounding Givens.

On the other hand, the short-season burst will leave contenders hunting for replacements without the luxury of watching a lot of 2020 baseball. The focus will be on physical tools as demonstrated most recently, results be damned. Teams typically have more than 82 games to witness repeat testing of players before making deadline decisions. By that point, the season will be over. Teams that want to improve mid-season will have to simply imagine what is possible.

It’s reasonable to expect Givens to fare well in this analysis, whether he’s discussed in trades before or during the season. He looks the part of a monster on the mound, consistently averaging over 95 mph with his fastball in every season of his career. Ramping up the use of his change-up to equal status with his slider, and pairing it with that heater, enabled Givens to jump to a hefty 15.8% swinging-strike rate and 12.3 K/9 in 2019. True, he also coughed up 1.86 homers per nine innings, but it’s not hard to imagine that number moving back towards his career mean (0.95 per nine), especially once he’s removed from Camden Yards and the AL East. If you’re a team that routinely re-envisions how your pitchers use their arsenals, there’s no better raw material to work with.

And that also brings us back around to the point we started with: the importance of leverage. Locking up winnable games, both during the regular season and through the postseason, is going to be key. The O’s know this better than anyone, having benefited from several campaigns in which they thrived in one-run contests. Even a talented team with good health and generally good performance can experience rather significant swings in actual victories based upon just a few moments in certain close contests. And that’s all the more true in knockout rounds of the playoffs.

Givens becomes quite an appealing weapon under these parameters. He has been a workhorse, averaging over seventy frames annually over his four full seasons in the majors. More than ever, an acquiring team could envision a significant impact on its fortunes from inserting a pitcher with this skillset into its relief corps.

Further greasing the wheels here is a favorable contract situation. As noted, Givens is controlled for 2021. His salary this season is only $3.225MM and can only move northward by so much through the arbitration process. As clubs think ahead to building a winner in lean economic times, this is precisely the sort of asset they’ll wish to have.

It remains all but entirely unknown how the transactional landscape will develop. But so long as some player movement is permitted, I’m guessing that Givens will be one of the most-discussed and most-watched players as MLB’s 2020 season relaunches.

Trade Candidate: Dominic Smith

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Plenty went wrong for the Mets in 2019, their third straight season without a playoff berth, but the oft-maligned franchise nonetheless turned in a fairly respectable campaign. They got off the mat after an awful start to win 86 games, right-hander Jacob deGrom won his second consecutive National League Cy Young Award, and slugging first baseman Pete Alonso burst on the scene to mash 53 home runs en route to NL Rookie of the Year honors. Aside from Alonso, there were other legitimately encouraging developments among the Mets’ position player group, including the performance of fellow first baseman Dominic Smith.

It appeared entering the season that Smith was teetering on the brink of irrelevance, even though he wasn’t far removed from his days as a touted prospect. The 11th overall pick of the Mets in 2013, Smith debuted in the majors in 2017 as one of the game’s 100 best farmhands, but he fell way short of the hype at the outset of his career.

From 2017-18, a 332-plate appearance span, the lefty-swinging Smith put up a dismal .210/.259/.406 batting line. Smith’s minus-1.0 fWAR in that time frame ranked dead last among all 79 Mets who racked up at-bats, and he also struggled badly at the Triple-A level during the latter of the two seasons. As a result, fans, media and maybe even the organization were down on Smith, though he came back in 2019 to produce far better results than the average major league hitter.

Alonso’s presence and injuries to Smith helped keep him from playing a full season, but he still impressed during an 89-game, 197-PA sample. Playing his age-24 season, Smith batted .282/.355/.525 (133 wRC+) with 11 home runs and a lofty .243 ISO. Plus, after combining for a 28.4 percent strikeout rate with a 5.4 percent walk rate during the prior two years, he made serious strides in those departments. Smith went down on strikes at a 22.3 percent clip and drew free passes 9.6 percent of the time. He also chased fewer pitches outside the zone, made more contact and was equally effective against southpaws (132 wRC+) and righties (133 wRC+), though his success versus same-handed pitchers came over a much smaller sample size.

While Smith did take real steps forward last season, it appears there was some good fortune involved. Smith finished the season with a .368 weighted on-base average, but his .327 xwOBA (via Statcast) didn’t measure up. Even if you’re unconcerned by that and regard Smith as someone who could be a long-term offensive linchpin, it’s up in the air whether he’ll play another game for the Mets. Consider: Alonso has first base on lockdown, there’s no designated hitter option in the NL, and although Smith did get most of his playing time last season in the corner outfield, he’s part of a logjam there for the Mets. Not only could Yoenis Cespedes come back after a couple injury-crushed seasons, but the corner OF-capable foursome of Michael Conforto, Brandon Nimmo, Jeff McNeil and J.D. Davis remains on hand. Those players’ presences could help push Smith to the trade block and out of Queens.

As mentioned, Smith’s coming off a season in which he made clear progress. He also has another pre-arbitration season left and isn’t on track to reach free agency until after the 2024 campaign. All of those factors should buoy Smith’s trade value, as should the dearth of high-end first basemen in free agency, yet he’s still not going to bring back any kind of haul. Smith’s position, his lack of a track record in the bigs and a lack of demand for first basemen have likely tamped down his appeal on the market. Ultimately, it seems possible New York will use Smith to get rid of one of its undesirable contracts (Jed Lowrie? Jeurys Familia?), as Ken Rosenthal recently reported the Mets and Rangers were in talks on such a deal. The Rangers still haven’t upgraded at first, where Ronald Guzman was a disaster in 2019, so they might remain interested in Smith. The Red Sox, Royals and Twins also make for a few debatable landing spots.

For now, Smith looks like one of the most logical trade candidates in baseball. However, if the Mets don’t receive an offer to their liking, they keep Smith as a bench player or stash him as depth in Triple-A ball. Smith still has a pair of minor league options left, but he seems overqualified for anything below the majors at this point. Regardless, it doesn’t appear Smith will be able to carve out a regular role for himself as a Met, so a trade could be the best move for his career.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Trade Candidate: Matthew Boyd

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Left-hander Matthew Boyd has been one of the most talked-about trade candidates in baseball dating back to last season, yet the Tigers haven’t been willing to part with him thus far. Boyd seemed to come up on MLBTR’s pages every day last July leading up to the trade deadline, though rumors centering on him have been few and far between this offseason. As of a few weeks ago, Tigers general manager Al Avila wasn’t “actively” looking to move Boyd, one of the most valuable players on a Detroit team that has little chance to push for contention in the near term.

Since that report on Boyd broke, the upper end of the free-agent class for starting pitchers has emptied out. Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg, Zack Wheeler, Madison Bumgarner, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Dallas Keuchel and Cole Hamels, among others, have come off the board in recent weeks. That leaves … Alex Wood (?) as the best starter left in free agency. Needless to say, if you didn’t sign any of the top starters on the open market but still need help in your rotation, a trade’s likely your best bet at this point. So, there should be plenty of teams clamoring for Boyd.

As MLBTR’s Jeff Todd explained earlier this week, when combining trade value and trade probability, Boyd may be the likeliest starter in the game to wind up on the move before the season. As was mentioned before, the Tigers figure to stay close to the bottom of the league for at least a little while longer, which is one reason it makes sense to give up Boyd now. Likewise, the lack of better starters on the open market ought to help Detroit’s cause if it tries to deal him. The soon-to-be 29-year-old Boyd does have three seasons’ arbitration eligibility left, so the Tigers could be content to keep him. However, Boyd’s getting more expensive (he’s due a projected $6.4MM in 2020) and might be difficult to extend with Scott Boras as his agent.

All things considered, the next several weeks look like an opportune time for the Tigers to cash in Boyd. Keep in mind this is the same club that held once-coveted righty Michael Fulmer when several teams were interested in him, and after undergoing Tommy John surgery last March, his trade value’s almost nil right now. If the Tigers go the other way with Boyd, there should be plenty of teams willing to offer enticing packages. To name several examples, the Angels, Astros, Phillies, Padres, Dodgers and Braves were all reported to have expressed interest in Boyd over the summer. All of those clubs could still stand to add someone of his ilk to their starting staffs right now.

So, if you’re going to trade for Boyd, what would you be getting? Well, there’s nothing particularly impressive about his career 4.92 ERA/4.66 FIP across 645 1/3 innings. Similarly, neither Boyd’s lifetime 91.4 mph average fastball velocity nor his 92 mph mean from 2019 will scare anyone. But Boyd did find another gear last season in terms of generating swinging strikes, racking up strikeouts and limiting walks. Hitters whiffed on 14 percent of his pitches, up from the 9 to 10 percent range during prior seasons. Moreover, Boyd took down 11.56 batters per nine via the K and handed out free passes at a personal-best 2.43 per nine. In all, his 4.76 K/BB ratio ranked 10th in the majors, barely trailing NL Cy Young winner Jacob deGrom and placing him just above the likes of Bumgarner and Clayton Kershaw.

Despite his K/BB brilliance, Boyd still concluded last season with an unspectacular 4.56 ERA/4.32 FIP over 185 1/3 innings. One problem? A lack of ground balls. Boyd induced grounders at a subpar 35.6 percent clip, which rivaled his lifetime mark (34.5) but also helped lead to an unpalatable home run tally. He surrendered long balls on 18.2 percent of flies, up from the 10 to 11 range over the previous two seasons. Of course, teams that are especially sanguine about Boyd could attribute those struggles to a leaguewide increase in HRs. As such, it may not have a negative effect on their interest in swinging a deal for him.

All told, 2019 was a tale of two halves for Boyd. He recorded a terrific 3.57 ERA/3.38 FIP in advance of the All-Star break, which helped fuel one trade rumor after another, before plummeting to a 5.35 ERA/4.57 FIP thereafter. In retrospect, maybe the Tigers should’ve sold high on Boyd in July, but it still seems likely he’d bring back a quality return for the rebuilding club in the coming weeks.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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