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Trade Candidate

Latest From The Nationals

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The Nationals’ will to compete is being tested this trade deadline. After back-to-back losses to the Orioles, the Nats don’t look at all like a contender. They have one of the worst farm systems in baseball, and two cornerstone players in Trea Turner and Juan Soto whom they’ll want to sign long-term in the coming season. Restocking the farm system could go a long way to providing Turner and Soto with the future competitive security they may need to ink long-term deals, writes The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal.

The most significant deadline question, of course, revolves around Max Scherzer. Mad Max missed his start yesterday with triceps discomfort, but it’s a minor injury and nothing that should derail a potential trade, if there were to be one. A decision has not yet been made about making his next start, per Dougherty.

Joe Ross will come off the injured list without a rehab assignment to start tomorrow’s game against the Phillies, per Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post (via Twitter). Ross hasn’t been talked about much in terms of the trade market, but he’s put up a solid season — 4.02 ERA/4.51 FIP in 87 1/3 innings — as he finally looks to be rounding back into form as the guy who debuted with the Nats back in 2015. He’s making just $1.5MM, and he has one more season of arbitration eligibility. Scherzer is obviously the big fish in Washington, but for teams looking for cheap, controllable help in the rotation, Ross has mid-rotation upside.

Whether Ross would be available or not is unclear. If indeed the Nats decide to sell, Daniel Hudson and Brad Hand would presumably be the two names of interest, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). Hudson has been excellent once again this year and could solidify a contender’s pen as he did for the Nats in 2019. The Blue Jays are among the teams to ask about the Nats’ pair of back-end arms, per Jon Morosi of the MLB Network (via Twitter).

Tanner Rainey is beginning a rehab assignment today, tweets Dougherty. Rainey’s had a tough season to date — 6.93 ERA in 24 2/3 innings — and he’s less likely to be dealt than the names above. That said, if Hudson and/or Hand are moved, Rainey would be a prime contender to take on some high leverage duties.

If Scherzer and/or Ross do get moved, the Nats would have to dig deep to find enough starters to fill out their rotation. Stephen Strasburg does not seem any closer to making his return from a neck strain and other various ailments. He will see another specialist this week, per Pete Kerzel of MASNsports.com.

MLBTR Poll: Which Contender Should Trade For Jonathan Schoop?

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The Tigers are 47-53, 12 games behind the White Sox for the division lead. Their fate was sealed by a disastrous April when they went 8-19 to start the year. Since then, they’ve actually put together three consecutive winnings months, including an 11-8 mark so far in July. These Tigers have played perhaps the most enticing stretch of baseball we’ve seen from Motor City in years, but they’re still sellers heading into this trade deadline.

Jonathan Schoop, Jose Cisnero, Kyle Funkhouser, Gregory Soto, Daniel Norris, and Jeimer Candelario are the names most likely to draw trade interest here in the week before the deadline, per Chris McCosky of the Detroit News. Schoop’s name has certainly been bandied about the most in the Twitterverse, mostly as a lower-cost option for teams not interesting in paying presumably high-end returns for other available infielders like Trevor Story or Adam Frazier.

Schoop, after all, is a free agent at the end of the year and making just $4.5MM. He doesn’t have the controllable contract like Frazier or the long-term track record of Story, but he would nonetheless be a valuable addition for someone.

With a 116 wRC, he’s an above-average bat for the third time in five years (he was exactly average with a 100 wRC+ in 2019. He’s slashing .289/.330/.471 with a .182 ISO that’s actually a little low for Schoop’s norms. He’s doesn’t strike out over much and his bat carries consistent pop.

Defensively, he’s not garnering the plus marks that he has in the past, but he can still handle multiple positions as a first and second baseman. He absolutely crushes left-handed pitching to the tune of a 161 wRC+ this year. He’s a first division platoon bat with the capability of being an everyday, impact player on a playoff team. He fits the Howie Kendrick mold from the 2019 Nationals, and though it’s not fair to put Hendricks’ heroic expectations onto Schoop, he can be that kind of all-purpose, veteran bat that won’t cost an arm and a leg to acquire.

Like Kendrick, his physical abilities don’t leap off the page, and he doesn’t play a premium position, but he’s a textbook professional hitter. Schoop isn’t the big name that many fan bases might be hunting, but if the Tigers are inclined to move him, he can absolutely be a difference-making piece for a contender. Just a couple weeks ago, MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk did the work of finding the best fits for Schoop, but let’s hear from you: which contender would benefit the most from adding Schoop’s potent right-handed bat to their first base/second base/DH/bench crew?

(poll link for app users)

Mets, Phillies, Blue Jays Scouting Cubs/Diamondbacks

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The Mets, Phillies, and Jays – and potentially others – have scouts at the Diamondbacks/Cubs game in Chicago today, per Jon Heyman of the MLB Network (via Twitter).

That’s as good a place as any for deadline buyers to do their weekend shopping. Kris Bryant and Craig Kimbrel are the most notable names present, but there’s plenty of talent dotting Chicago’s roster. Javier Baez, Anthony Rizzo, and Zach Davies are the other veterans on expiring contracts, with Davies the most likely of the three to move.

The Cubs also stock affordable, veteran talent, both in the bullpen — where names like Ryan Tepera, Andrew Chafin, and Dan Winkler could help a contender — and in the lineup, where low-cost veterans like Patrick Wisdom, Matt Duffy, and Jake Marisnick could be worth a conversation as well.

The Diamondbacks figure to be an even more fervent seller, though without the high-end talent of the Cubs. Still, Eduardo Escobar continues to be a popular name as a power bat offering defensive versatility on an expiring contract. Asdrubal Cabrera represents a knock-off edition, though the veteran has proven an effective deadline addition before, and he brings a more patient approach with an 11.7 walk rate this season.

Joakim Soria has a 4.45 ERA/3.91 FIP in 28 1/3 innings and a lengthy track record of success. The 14-year veteran is making just $3.5MM, and he, too, will be a free agent at year’s end. He has six saves and 229 for his career, so any acquiring team can rest assured that he’ll keep his composure, if nothing else. The Mets, Phillies, and Blue Jays all need bullpen help and could turn to Soria if Kimbrel proves too rich.

The rest of the Dbacks’ bullpen consists mostly of castoffs or unproven youngsters. Bespectacled vet Tyler Clippard won’t be cowed by the moment, but he’s only recently off the 60-day injured list and has just one appearance on the season. Former Brewers and Rays right-hander Jake Faria is having a decent season — 4.19 ERA, 19 1/3 innings — and would probably come cheap.

Noe Ramirez is worth a look. The 31-year-old sports a 3.31 ERA/3.72 FIP in 16 1/3 innings, but he’s long been undervalued because of pretty severe splits. He has a 3.94 career xFIP and 20.4 percent K-BB% against same-handed hitters, versus a 5.04 xFIP and 9.4 K-BB% against lefties for his career. Deployed judiciously, Ramirez can absolutely add value to a contender.

Merrill Kelly and Caleb Smith could be targeted as back-end rotation upgrades, with Kelly having the better season of the two. Kelly has posted 2.0 fWAR in 20 starts covering 117 innings. He has a 4.46 ERA/3.88 FIP with a 46.2 percent groundball rate, 20.3 percent strikeout rate, and solid 5.5 percent walk rate. He’s also affordable at $4.25MM this year and controllable with a $5.25MM club option for next year.

Kelly will take the mound today. He’s generating “a ton of interest on the trade market,” per Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter).

Smith is an extreme flyball pitcher controllable through 2023. With a 27.1 percent groundball rate for his career, he’s always going to be homer prone, but he’s nevertheless managed a palatable 4.38 ERA/4.64 FIP in 78 innings. Smith might be a better bet for a fringey contender looking towards the future, as his value lies at least as much in his controllability as it does his present ability to pitch in the back-end of a playoff rotation.

A Potential First Base/Corner Outfield Upgrade For Contending Clubs

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The Marlins are generally expected to move some players off the big league roster in advance of the July 30 trade deadline. They’re in last place in the National League East at 39-50, and FanGraphs gives the Fish just a 0.2% chance of reaching the postseason. Indeed, the Marlins already began selling last month, when they sent corner outfielder Corey Dickerson and reliever Adam Cimber to the Blue Jays.

Miami’s biggest decision over the coming weeks will be whether to trade star center fielder Starling Marte. The two sides are reportedly discussing an extension, with the expectation that Marte will be moved if they don’t agree on a long-term deal. But there’s another Miami hitter who should intrigue contenders, one whose production has flown a little more under the radar: Garrett Cooper.

Cooper wasn’t a top prospect coming up in the Brewers or Yankees farm systems, and he’s never been a name familiar to most casual fans. Since breaking into the majors, he’s always performed when given the opportunity though. Miami acquired Cooper from the Yankees before the 2018 season, but he spent most of that year on the injured list. He returned to play fairly well in 2019 but again missed time with injury, and he lost a month of the 2020 season amidst the Marlins’ team-wide COVID-19 outbreak last summer.

Upon being reinstated from the COVID IL last August, Cooper mashed down the stretch to help lead the Marlins to a postseason berth. He’s improved upon that production this season, putting up a .291/.387/.481 line over 238 plate appearances. He’s sporting a .288/.375/.488 mark since the start of 2020, and he owns a .284/.355/.457 line (122 wRC+) over 875 trips to the dish at the major league level.

Cooper’s had his share of health troubles, but there’s little question he’s a quality offensive player when healthy. His bottom line results are strong, and his underlying batted ball metrics are plus. Cooper’s in the 75th percentile or better this in average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard contact rate. His peak exit velocity (114 MPH) is in the 92nd percentile, a reflection of his high-end raw power.

Unsurprisingly, the right-handed hitting Cooper has been a bit better against left-handed pitching than right-handers over the course of his career. He’s far from a platoon player, though, owning a productive .280/.362/.434 mark against same-handed hurlers. Cooper does strike out a fair amount and shouldn’t be expected to sustain this season’s .383 batting average on balls in play. But he makes consistent hard contact and uses the entire field, so it’s fair to expect he’ll continue to have his fair share of hits fall in. Even if Cooper’s BABIP dips toward his .337 figure from last year, he should remain a well above-average hitter based on his quality of contact and decent plate discipline.

The bat is the calling card for Cooper, who’s best suited at first base. With Jesús Aguilar at first in South Florida, he’s seen more time in the corner outfield than at his natural position in recent seasons. He’s not a disaster in the grass, but defensive metrics all agree he’s below-average, which isn’t surprising for a player listed at 6’5″, 235 pounds.

It’s worth noting that the Marlins needn’t move Cooper this summer if they’re so disinclined. He’s controllable via arbitration for two seasons beyond this one, and the Marlins could keep him around in hopes of making a run in 2022. There was some speculation about Miami moving Cooper last offseason after they signed Adam Duvall. There was no indication the Marlins came all that close to pulling the trigger on a deal, but it stands to reason clubs will again be in contact with general manager Kim Ng to gauge his potential availability over the coming weeks.

If Miami is willing to move Cooper, there are a handful of teams who look like strong fits on paper. The Dodgers and Padres were among the clubs interested in Cooper over the winter, and they’re amidst a tight race with one another and the division-leading Giants in the NL West. (Padres general manager A.J. Preller expressed interest over the weekend in upgrading his lineup). The Red Sox and Mariners have gotten very little from their first basemen, and Seattle’s Evan White might not return from a hip injury this year. The Braves could use corner outfield help.

Even perennially low-payroll teams could inquire on Cooper, who’s making just $1.9MM (with less than half of that sum still owed). The A’s and Rays could use more production out of the designated hitter spot. Indians first basemen have been among the worst in the league; while Cleveland might be falling out of position to buy for this season, they could acquire him with an eye towards 2022.

Cooper might not have the name recognition or long track record of some of this summer’s other trade candidates. He’s a quality hitter, though, the kind of player who would upgrade most teams’ lineups. Between his production and affordability, Cooper should pique the interest of a handful of contenders over the coming weeks.

Potential Landing Spots For Craig Kimbrel

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Now that Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer has more or less officially announced his intention to sell at the trade deadline, contenders looking to acquire some upgrades off the Wrigleyville roster might start with a player whose value seemed negligible heading into last season’s deadine: closer Craig Kimbrel. While the Cubs’ fortunes have dimmed in 2021, Kimbrel is enjoying a fantastic comeback season after a disappointing 2020.

Whether a front office likes traditional stats or modern analytics, Kimbrel has something for everyone. Start with big picture run prevention, and there’s nobody better in the game right now: his 0.57 ERA, 1.12 FIP, and 1.94 xFIP all rank 1st overall among qualified relievers. He’s second behind Matt Barnes by measure of SIERA. Kimbrel’s 46.2% strikeout rate is the top such mark among qualified relievers in the game. He also seems to have figured out the control problems that plagued him the past two seasons, lowering his walk rate to a very reasonable 8.6 percent. If you want to dig even deeper, Kimbrel is among the best in the game by whiff rate, chase rate, and barrel percentage.

The righty is also controllable beyond this season with a $16MM vesting option for 2022 that defaults to a club option (with a $1MM buyout) if it doesn’t vest. Kimbrel isn’t exactly cheap, as he is playing on a $16MM salary for 2021 and will still be owed roughly $5.43MM come July 30, but Hoyer can certainly make the case to other teams that Kimbrel is worth the investment.

There will be a certain class of buyer who prefers to shop in the Ryan Tepera/Andrew Chafin lot rather than pay sticker price for Kimbrel. To their point, relievers are historically fungible and fickle, and there are always relievers to be had at the trade deadline. But, bullpen arms don’t grow on trees, and there’s not a contender in the game that couldn’t find a use for Kimbrel.

In fact, it’s probably a simpler task to identify those contenders who won’t have interest in Kimbrel. The Rays, for example, already count their bullpen as a strength, and Kimbrel is a little flashy and/or expensive for their taste. The Nationals — as much as they could use him — would probably have to surrender too great a share of their limited prospect capital to get him.

The Brewers likely consider themselves set with Josh Hader, Devin Williams and Brent Suter – and it’s a little hard to fathom Chicago handing Kimbrel to the team that appears to have bested them for the division. The Reds could use him, but after shedding bullpen money last winter, it’s a little counterintuitive to think they’d be ready for an addition like Kimbrel just a few months later. Frankly, the Cubs probably don’t have a trade moratorium with their NL Central comrades (except maybe the Cardinals), but they might require a premium. The Brewers and Reds don’t have the need or inclination, respectively, to pay that tax.

The Pirates and Diamondbacks of the world won’t be calling anytime soon, and the Yankees, for all their recent trouble closing out games of late, look more likely to trade away a closer than acquire one.

The White Sox and Cubs aren’t exactly regular trade partners, but Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune suggests the crosstown rivals might be a fit for a Kimbrel deal. Putting Kimbrel in the Sox bullpen with the likes of Liam Hendriks, Michael Kopech, Garrett Crochet, and Aaron Bummer would certainly blow some hats off, and it would give manager Tony La Russa a strong insurance plan against almost any potential injury for a group with some injury risk. But the Southsiders gave Hendriks $54MM to close games, and it’s a little hard to fathom the active saves leader embracing second chair.

Sullivan also puts the Astros and A’s at the top of the list of suitors. Both make some sense, though the Astros might be in a similar place as the ChiSox, given Ryan Pressly’s All-Star campaign. Oakland’s Lou Trivino has performed well in taking the bulk of closer duties since Trevor Rosenthal has been lost for the year, but Trivino could probably step back into a setup role just as easily.

Besides, the Cubs and A’s have done business before as trade partners. Most notably, Hoyer was the Cubs’ GM in July 2014 when they packaged Jeff Samardzija with Jason Hammel to net top prospect Addison Russell along with Billy McKinney and Dan Straily. Speculatively speaking, if the Cubs were serious about moving Javier Baez, the A’s could certainly use a shortstop upgrade, and the two clubs could try again to pair multiple assets together in this kind of deal, though the financial cost for even one of Kimbrel or Baez might not be palatable for the small-market Athletics.

The Phillies have the most obvious need with a 4.78 bullpen ERA and league-leading 22 blown saves. It’s not clear, however, how serious the Phillies are as contenders, currently a game under .500 and 4.5 games behind the Mets for the division and slim odds at a wild card spot. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski certainly knows Kimbrel well from his time running the Red Sox, and he was also the executive at the wheel when Boston let Kimbrel walk in free agency.

The Dodgers have blown 17 saves, and though Kenley Jansen has looked better than expected, they’ve suffered some significant losses from their pitching staff. Their starting pitching has taken a few hits over the course of the season, most recently with Clayton Kershaw landing on the injured list. One way to counteract that depleted rotation depth would be to bolster the bullpen, and there’s no better arm available than Kimbrel.

Padres’ GM A.J. Preller traded for Kimbrel once before, and if he thinks the Dodgers might be inquiring, he very well could be interesting in trading for him again. Preller also traded him away once before, but that was hardly an indictment of Kimbrel. The present-day Padres have suffered enough injury woes to know that there is no such thing as enough pitching depth. They are, however, leading the league with a 2.86 bullpen ERA, and Mark Melancon is a trusted veteran hand with 27 saves in 31 opportunities. It’s not their greatest need, but the Padres are all in on 2021, and as of right now, they’re staring down a one-game playoff with the Giants or Dodgers.

And why not, the Giants might throw their hats in the ring as well. Kimbrel would certainly fit with the Giants’ veteran-laden roster. He’d also offer some consistency and personality to a bullpen that currently splits closing opportunities between Jake McGee and Tyler Rogers. San Francisco’s bullpen has been good with a collective 3.42 ERA, but they have blown 16 save opportunities.

Moving back to the American League, the Blue Jays certainly qualify as a team to watch. Like the A’s, their Plan A, Kirby Yates, crumbled before the season even began, while depth options like Jordan Romano, Rafael Dolis, and Julian Merryweather have all spent time on the injured list. Even nine games out of first in the AL East, the Jays are committed to contention, and they need all the help they can get on that end.

Hoyer and the Cubs may feel the urgency to jump the trade market for Kimbrel while his value remains at this peak level. In 33 appearances covering 31 2/3 innings, Kimbrel has been worth 2.0 rWAR/1.8 fWAR. He’s converted 20 saves in 22 tries with that absolutely shimmering 0.57 ERA. Those numbers aren’t likely to get much better, and given the relatively small sample inherent to a reliever’s workload, one bad outing could suddenly make Kimbrel appear mortal again.

Bottom line, Kimbrel is one of if not the best reliever in the game right now, and he’s available. For an aggressive contender, he’s likely available now.

AL West Notes: Rangers, Lyles, Astros, Díaz, Odorizzi, Javier

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Jordan Lyles won’t get turns as a traditional starter to open the season for the Rangers, and he’s not thrilled about it, per Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News (via Twitter). Rangers manager Chris Woodward told the 6’5″ right-hander that he’s likely headed for 50-60 pitch outings, at least to start the season. Lyles surrendered more earned runs than any other pitcher in 2020, finishing with a 7.02 ERA/5.95 FIP in 57 2/3 innings. Outside of a 2-inning outing to start the season, Lyles served as a starter, though he did twice enter the game following an opener. Despite his struggles, Lyles averaged 88 pitches per outing as a starter/follower. The Rangers presumably want to protect Lyles while getting an extended look at some of their younger hurlers like Taylor Hearn and Brett Martin. Staying in Texas…

  • Chander Rome of the Houston Chronicle wonders if Aledmys Díaz might make some sense as a trade candidate for the Astros. The utility man is set to make $3MM this year, and the Astros would love to trim a little off the top of their payroll. Díaz has slashed .265/.337/.470 in 306 plate appearances the past two seasons as one of the first guys off the bench. Robel Garcia and Abraham Toro are competing for the second utility guy off the bench, and it certainly makes some sense to consider a Díaz trade if there’s one to be had. That said, Diaz is the best fit as a backup at shortstop, and Carlos Correa hasn’t exactly been an iron man. The Astros could also try to move Brooks Raley ($2MM), Joe Smith ($4MM) or Martin Maldonado ($3.5MM) as a way to trim the payroll, though the latter isn’t particularly likely.
  • Elsewhere on the Astros’ roster, they’re going to need to utilize their pitching depth from the jump. Recently-signed Jake Odorizzi isn’t likely to be ready for opening day, neither is Pedro Baez, currently on the COVID-19 injured list. Cristian Javier is also a bit of a question mark, not having pitched in a game since March 2, writes MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart. Zack Greinke, Lance McCullers Jr., and Jose Urquidy remain at the top of the rotation, but the final two spots may be up for grabs. If Javier and Odorizzi aren’t ready for opening day, Luis García and Bryan Abreu are back in camp and ready to audition.

The Rockies’ Top Trade Chip In A Potential Rebuild

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Once all of the details are ironed out and Nolan Arenado has been officially traded to the Cardinals, it’s possible that Rockies owner Dick Monfort and GM Jeff Bridich won’t mention the word “rebuild” when explaining the trade to fans and media.  It could be sold as a perfect storm of a superstar player’s displeasure with the front office coinciding with an unprecedented economic downturn, leading the Rox with no choice but to move Arenado despite the team’s full intention to contend in 2021.

But, let’s be real — the Rockies face a big uphill battle in the NL West.  The Dodgers and Padres are arguably the two best teams in baseball, the Giants are a looming threat considering all their available payroll space following the 2021 season, and even the Diamondbacks could be primed for a rebound considering they couldn’t seem to catch a break last year.  After two consecutive losing seasons and the impending loss of Arenado, Colorado seems like a prime candidate to blow things up.  Several trade candidates remain on the roster, each with some obstacle that could limit what the Rockies could receive back in terms of high-quality young talent.

Trevor Story’s name has been whispered in trade rumors all winter, but Story is only under contract through the 2021 season and many of the top contenders have already addressed their shortstop needs.  Charlie Blackmon’s bat wasn’t quite as potent in 2020 as in past years, and trade suitors may balk at the $52MM (in guaranteed money and in two years of player options) owed to Blackmon through the 2023 season.  Scott Oberg’s continued health issues make him a question mark going forward.  Kyle Freeland and Antonio Senzatela each have three years of team control remaining and would definitely get some trade attention, though neither pitcher has been consistent enough to merit a blue-chip return.

Assuming the Rockies don’t go totally scorched-earth with a rebuild and start shopping former top prospect Brendan Rodgers or current top prospect Zac Veen, that leaves one player who would instantly bring back a big trade package.  From an overall consideration of team control, financial cost, and Major League track record, German Marquez is not just the Rockies’ best trade chip, but one of the more intriguing trade chips in all of baseball.

Let’s begin with Marquez’s underrated statistical record, as only 14 pitchers have accumulated more fWAR than Marquez (12.2) over the last four seasons.  Marquez has a 4.21 ERA and an above-average 24.2K% and 17.8K-BB% over 613 2/3 innings since the start of the 2017 season.  He averaged 177 frames per year during the regulation-length 2017-19 campaigns, while tossing a league-high 81 2/3 innings in the abbreviated 2020 season.  One knock on Marquez is that he allows quite a bit of hard contact, but he has limited the damage thanks to an ability to keep the ball on the ground (47.6% career grounder rate).

These are solid numbers for any hurler, but particularly impressive for someone who pitches their home games at Coors Field.  As you might expect, Marquez has some pretty notable home/away splits — a 3.51 ERA in 341 1/3 road innings during his career, and a 5.10 ERA over 293 innings in Denver.  It is certainly possible that the right-hander could reach another level of performance if he didn’t pitch in such a hitter-friendly environment, which makes him all the more interesting for trade suitors.

Marquez is entering his age-26 season, and is already locked up through at least the 2023 season on a five-year, $43MM contract extension signed in April 2019.  $36MM remains owed to Marquez over the final three guaranteed years of that contract, which includes the $2.5MM buyout of a $16MM club option for 2024.  Less than two years later, the Marquez extension still looks like a very canny move from Bridich and company, if for not quite the reason they expected — this affordable price tag makes Marquez a fit for almost every contender in the league, pandemic-lowered revenues notwithstanding.

While Marquez hasn’t had a Cy Young Award-winning peak like Blake Snell, Marquez is over two years younger than Snell, has fewer injury concerns, and is owed less money than the $39MM Snell is scheduled to make through the 2023 season.  By that token, Colorado is certainly within its rights to ask for a trade return similar to what the Rays received for dealing Snell to the Padres this offseason.  An enterprising team with some payroll space to spare could also sweeten the pot by offering to take some more money off the Rockies’ hands — perhaps the last $11MM remaining on Ian Desmond’s contract, in terms of salary, the buyout of his 2022 club option, and his $1MM assignment bonus in the event of a trade.

It remains to be seen if the Rockies will start a full-fledged rebuild immediately once Arenado is gone, or perhaps if the team will take the rebuild route whatsoever.  There’s a ticking clock on a Story considering his lack of remaining control, but the Rockies might not be in a particular rush to move Marquez quite yet since he is still signed through 2023.  The argument can be made, however, that Marquez will never be as valuable as he is right now, so if the Rockies did want to start looking to the future, the time is now to maximize their return.

Trade Candidate: Jon Gray

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Much has been written about the Rockies potentially trading stars Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story. There has been decidedly less chatter about starter Jon Gray. On the surface, though, the right-hander looks to be one of the more sensible trade candidates around the league.

That’s mostly a function of his contractual status. Gray has five years and sixty-two days of MLB service, meaning he’ll hit free agency at the end of next season. Meanwhile, contending in the NL West will be an uphill battle for the Rockies. The Dodgers are a perennial juggernaut, while the already-contending Padres made a trio of impact additions last month. The Giants also had a decent 2020 season; the Diamondbacks did not, but Arizona has largely the same roster that won 85 games and finished second in the division the year before. As Dan Szymborksi of FanGraphs examined this week, the Rockies look more likely to finish near the bottom of the division than the top.

Colorado projects as a longshot for the postseason, particularly if MLB returns to a five-team-per-league playoff structure in 2021. There’s a case to be made the Rockies should move short-term players for future value. The organization needn’t embark on a full rebuild, but a single year of production from Gray (or Story, for that matter) would probably be worth more to another team than it would to Colorado.

Admittedly, Gray is coming off a dismal season. He pitched just eight games with terrible results before being shut down with inflammation in his throwing shoulder. Gray’s velocity, strikeout and ground ball rates all dropped precipitously from past seasons. He ultimately posted an ERA just under 7.

Yet the former third overall pick looked like a capable mid-rotation starter entering 2020. Over the three prior seasons, Gray pitched to a 4.31 ERA (a deceptively solid mark in the hitters’ haven of Coors Field) across 432.2 innings. In that time, his strikeout (24.2%), walk (7.5%) and ground ball (48.8%) rates were each better than league average. As is, Gray was a productive starting pitcher. There remained some hope the former top prospect could yet emerge as a top-of-the-rotation arm. His fastball was in the mid 90’s and he flashed a pair of swing-and-miss breaking pitches.

After his disastrous 2020, Gray would be a reclamation project. But it’s easy to imagine plenty of contenders having interest in acquiring him. Eight poor starts don’t negate what Gray had achieved in the seasons before. His ending last season on the injured list is a red flag, but it’s notable the Rockies seemingly believe he can return to form this year. Otherwise, it wouldn’t have made sense for the Colorado front office to tender him an arbitration contract, projected in the not-insignificant $6MM range, as they did in November.

There has been no indication the Rockies are actually exploring trades involving Gray this offseason. On paper, though, Colorado looks a reasonable bet to subtract short-term pieces from the major league roster. Gray’s pre-2020 track record and past flashes of high-end raw stuff could entice some teams closer to contention to call the Rockies, particularly in a winter without many obvious rotation upgrades available in free agency.

Trade Candidate: Francisco Mejia

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The Padres overhauled their catching mix at the August 31 trade deadline, acquiring Austin Nola and Jason Castro in separate trades with the Mariners and Angels, while Luis Torrens went to Seattle as part of the Nola trade and Austin Hedges was sent to the Indians as part of the trade return for Mike Clevinger.

The end result was that Francisco Mejia was the only catcher who entered and exited deadline season in a Padres uniform, though he wasn’t on the active roster.  Mejia was on the injured list due to a thumb contusion and, once activated, he played in only one more MLB game before being sent to the Padres’ alternate training site.  As we get deeper into the offseason, it’s fair to wonder whether that one September game (a pinch-hit appearance on Sept. 16) might also mark Mejia’s final outing as a Padre.

Nola is still the projected starter, but recent reports from Yadier Molina himself have connected San Diego to Molina’s free agent market.  Star catching prospect Luis Campusano also made his big league debut in 2020 and, perhaps tellingly, was included on the Padres’ postseason roster over Mejia as the third catcher.  However, Campusano’s status is currently up in the air following an October arrest for felony marijuana possession.

Given the uncertainty over Campusano and the chances that Molina could sign elsewhere, it’s quite possible that the Friars could simply hang onto Mejia and use him as Nola’s backup.  (If not Molina, another veteran catcher could be signed as further depth, perhaps to a minor league deal rather than the MLB contract Molina will demand.)  If the Padres did sign Molina or another noted veteran catcher, however, Mejia could suddenly be expendable.

It was back in July 2018 that Mejia was a much more prominent trade chip, as he was sent from the Indians to the Padres in exchange for both Brad Hand and Adam Cimber.  At the time, Mejia was widely considered one of baseball’s top minor leaguers, ranked as high as fifth in Baseball Prospectus’ top-100 prospect ranking prior to the 2018 season.  Over an even 2200 career plate appearances at the minor league level, Mejia has hit .295/.349/.462 with 58 home runs and looked all the world like a player ready for the Show.

Even in 2019, Mejia performed well enough in his first extended taste of Major League action that he seemed to be living up to the prospect hype.  Despite two separate IL stints due to a knee sprain and an oblique strain, Mejia still hit a respectable .265/.316/.438 over 244 PA in 2019.  Unfortunately, Mejia couldn’t come close to this form last season, hitting just .077/.143/.179 in 42 PA — with Hedges posting equally dismal numbers, it isn’t surprising that San Diego chose to shake up their catching corps at the deadline.

Mejia only turned 25 last month and is still close enough to his blue-chip prospect days that he would certainly generate some interest on the trade market.  Any number of teams would like to upgrade their catching situation, ranging both from rebuilding clubs to would-be contenders.  The Yankees, Phillies, Nationals, Mets, Braves, Marlins, Rays, Brewers, Reds, Angels, or Cardinals are some of the names in the latter group, and the two New York teams, St. Louis, and Anaheim have also been linked to Molina.

While lots of teams need catching, one of the outstanding questions about Mejia is whether or not he’ll ultimately stick at catcher over the long term.  Mejia saw some action as a corner outfielder when he was in Cleveland’s farm system, and he also played four MLB games as a left fielder for the Padres in 2019.  Obviously Mejia’s bat carries more value at catcher than at any other position, though showing an ability to at least passably play on the grass might not hurt Mejia’s trade value all that much, given how multi-positional versatility is so prized by modern front offices.

The Padres’ interest in Molina shows that the club has at least some inclination to alter its catching mix yet again, so this might be the position to watch since San Diego is otherwise pretty set elsewhere around the diamond.  Rather than again deal from their deep farm system, the Padres could prefer to move an MLB-ready player like Mejia who might be in need of a change of scenery.

Trade Candidate: Trevor Story

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There’s a strong case to be made that the Rockies out to auction off the rights to star shortstop Trevor Story this winter. While it’s tempting to hold tight and hope he can help lead a renaissance, it’s a fair sight easier to imagine that backfiring than working out.

The Rockies had a taste of short-season contention, but had a dreadful 2020 run deficit (275-353) and have played decisively sub-.500 ball since the start of 2019. There’s still a strong core of talent, but the path to contention is awfully questionable given the Rockies’ meager supporting cast and injury questions (Jon Gray, David Dahl, Scott Oberg) … not to mention the quality of the NL West competition.

The Colorado organization has a number of needs and unclear means to address them all sufficiently. The team has mostly finished paying for its recent swings and misses in free agency and has already begun drawing down payroll. But it’s still on track to spend north of $130MM (assuming they tender most arb-eligibles) even before making any additions. Owner Dick Monfort didn’t exactly suggest he’ll be buying up new talent, writing to season ticketholders that “there will be nothing normal about this offseason as the industry faces a new economic reality.”

It’s a scenario in which many teams will explore their options with quality veterans. But who to deal? The Rox dabbled in some major scenarios last winter but ultimately kept third baseman Nolan Arenado. It’d be awfully difficult to strike a reasonable deal now, given his hefty salary and subpar offensive season. Charlie Blackmon is too expensive to foist onto another team after a middling season. They could certainly move German Marquez, but that’d mean giving up a 25-year-old rotation building block with a good contract situation.

Enter Story, a mid-prime star shortstop who is still youthful (28 in ten days) but entering his final season of team control. It’s much the situation that Arenado was in a few years back, except that Story will command a rather less onerous salary ($17.5MM) than Arenado had lined up for his final season of arbitration.

Arenado ended up inking a monster extension rather than testing free agency. That’s an avenue here, too … in theory, anyway. Monfort certainly didn’t sound like he was plotting out another nine-figure deal. While Story would never have commanded Arenado-like money, and certainly won’t now during a pandemic, he’d still cost a pretty penny.

Make no mistake: Story is a truly elite position player. If anything, he’s underrated, perhaps due to his roller-coaster first two seasons in the majors. Since he settled in, Story has compiled the tenth-most fWAR in baseball over the past three years.

We honestly don’t need to dive in too far to understand the point here. Story once had big pop and a ton of strikeouts, but he figured out the latter problem without sapping his power. He drove his K rate down to 24.3% in the just-completed season and is still driving the ball with authority. He’s in the top 5% leaguewide in speed and plays outstanding defense.

How about the demand side? Story isn’t cheap, but he’s an absolute bargain who would instantly elevate a lineup. Acquiring him would only require a one-year commitment and bring with it the likelihood of a qualifying offer (with anticipated draft compensation) this time next year. There’s always the potential for an extension as well.

Demand may not be widespread — it’ll tick up next winter when several big-time shortstops hit the open market — but it’s not hard to envision teams having keen interest. The Angels, Reds, Phillies, and Yankees all make particular sense on paper. Story is good enough that a team could consider acquiring him and playing him at third base, or instead moving an existing shortstop to another spot on the diamond.

It’ll be hard for the Rockies to go forward with moving Story. Keeping him at least until mid-season would at least give the club a chance. Then again, it would also mean paying half his salary, risking injury or decline, and taking the qualifying offer off of the table (which will reduce the value that an acquiring team would anticipate receiving in a swap). Unless Monfort and GM Jeff Bridich are able to mount a surprise run at an extension with Story’s reps, biting the bullet and getting a trade done this winter looks to be the best option.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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