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Trade Candidate

Trade Candidate: Zach Britton

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As the non-waiver trade deadline draws nearer, Zach Britton will be among the most oft-speculated and oft-rumored players to be on the move. It’s difficult to fathom a scenario in which the Orioles don’t trade their longtime closer, given that the alternatives are losing him for nothing or issuing a qualifying offer worth more than $18MM to a player who has currently thrown 41 2/3 innings dating back to Opening Day 2017.

Zach Britton | Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

It’s that level of uncertainty surrounding Britton, though, that makes his trade candidacy particularly intriguing. It stands to reason, of course, that several teams will be interested in the once-dominant lefty. FanRag’s Jon Heyman reports that the Astros (who nearly acquired Britton last July) and Indians are already in on Britton. It’s reasonable to expect that virtually every team within a stone’s throw of contending will check in on Britton (or already has checked in on Britton) between now and the deadline. But should Britton be considered a premium trade chip?

Britton is teeming with name value — and with good reason. From 2014-16, he was very arguably the best relief pitcher on the planet. Over that three-year stretch the southpaw posted a 1.38 ERA with 9.3 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 0.3 HR/9 and a historic 77.9 percent ground-ball rate in 209 innings. He set the all-time record for single-season ground-ball rate in 2015 and then broke his own record a year later when a staggering 80 percent of balls put in play against him were hit on the ground. Britton missed bats and limited walks, and it was virtually impossible to lift the ball against him. He was an absolute buzzsaw in the ninth inning. No relief pitcher in the game topped Britton’s 9.5 RA9-WAR in that time.

In the time that has followed, however, Britton has seen his 2017 season cut roughly in half by forearm injuries. Then, in the offseason, he suffered a ruptured Achilles tendon that required surgical repair and ultimately kept him on the shelf until mid-June. He’s only just now returned, and he’ll have scarcely more than six weeks to show contenders that he’s worthy of being deemed an impact reliever once again. Had Britton been his usual self in 2017, perhaps it’d be worth giving him the benefit of the doubt on the heels of a non-arm injury. But the 2017 version of Britton, in spite of a solid 2.89 ERA, simply didn’t look all that dominant.

Last year’s 18 percent strikeout rate (7.0 K/9) was Britton’s lowest since moving to the bullpen in 2014. His 11.5 swinging-strike rate was his lowest as a reliever by nearly five percent, and his 31.8 percent chase rate was six percent lower than his 2015-16 peak. Britton still induced grounders at an elite rate (72.6 percent), but not at the historic levels he’d reached in the three preceding seasons. And after walking just 6.9 percent of the hitters he faced from 2014-16, Britton walked 11.2 percent of his opponents last season en route to a 4.34 BB/9 mark. Britton was a good reliever last season, but he wasn’t elite and didn’t perform at a level commensurate with his $11.4MM salary.

Britton still received a raise to $12MM, though, even after the Orioles knew he’d require surgery to repair his ruptured Achiles, and that salary is all the more problematic now in 2018. Britton is owed about $6.45MM through season’s end, as of today. (It’d be about $3.94MM on the day of the non-waiver trade deadline.) That’s a rather significant sum for a team in the middle of the season — especially with the number of contenders who are either over the luxury tax limit (Nationals, Red Sox) or trying hard to remain slightly south of it (Yankees, Dodgers, Giants).

So far in 2018, Britton has only faced 17 batters and totaled 4 1/3 innings of work, so it’s hard to glean all that much from his early results. That said, it should be of at least mild concern that his average sinker is down from 96.1 mph in 2017 to 93.7 mph in 2018. He’s allowed just one hit in facing those 17 opponents and picked up five strikeouts, but he’s also walked four of them and thrown a first-pitch strike to just eight of them. That wouldn’t be especially concerning in a vacuum, but given the backdrop of last season’s control issues, it’s hardly promising to see Britton struggling with to locate the ball early out of the gates.

Clearly, there’s still time for Britton to rebuild his trade value. Even if his velocity doesn’t trend all the way back up, he’d be plenty appealing if he could scale back the walks and continue inducing grounders at an elite level. The O’s could (and should be willing to) increase his trade value by agreeing to pay down some or all of his significant salary, but that hasn’t been the front office/ownership’s M.O. in recent years. (To the contrary, the O’s have parted with Competitive Balance draft picks in order to shed relatively minimal commitments to relievers Ryan Webb and Brian Matusz.)

Britton’s trade candidacy, perhaps more than any other player who is likely to be moved this summer, is punctuated by “ifs.” If his velocity returns, if his control improves, if last year’s lack of whiffs proves to be a fluke and if the Orioles are willing to absorb some salary, he may very well end up looking like the premium trade chip that many expect him to be based on his name value. Right now, however, Britton looks like a solid but expensive reliever whose on-field results haven’t lined up with that name value in nearly two calendar years.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Trade Candidate: Scooter Gennett

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The Reds don’t have much going on at the MLB level this year. Their 19-36 record is a bit disappointing, perhaps, but largely aligns with expectations after a winter that mostly involved acquiring some affordable pitching depth to supplement a returning roster filled with question marks.

There have been some recent front-office wins, though. Offseason additions David Hernandez and Jared Hughes have been nice bullpen buys to this point; both could end up as deadline assets or useful pieces for the 2019 season. The extensions of Tucker Barnhart and Eugenio Suarez have worked out nicely so far. Reclaiming Matt Harvey seems to be a worthwhile, albeit still-uncertain venture.

Perhaps the biggest score of late, though — setting aside the landing of Luis Castillo, at least — has come via the waiver claim of Scooter Gennett from the division-rival Brewers late in Spring Training last year. Gennett was very productive in 2017, but has now elevated his output yet further in the new season. With the picture of the 2018 trade deadline beginning to take shape, he’s a potential source of trade value for the Reds and an interesting player to examine.

Avid readers of MLBTR may recall that, at times in the past, I have shed some doubt on Gennett’s merits as a trade candidate. His effort last year was not accompanied by any improvements to his plate discipline, he carried a somewhat elevated .339 batting average on balls in play with less-than-promising Statcast data (.367 wOBA vs. .322 xwOBA), and he continued to struggle against same-handed pitching (.248/.287/.404 vs. lefties).

Entering the current season, then, my own expectations were not terribly lofty for the 28-year-old, who is playing on a reasonable, but not exactly cut-rate $5.7MM salary. That non-bargain pay grade also weighs down the value of controlling Gennett’s 2019 season via arbitration. It wasn’t all that surprising that he remained with the Reds when the season began, particularly given the relative dearth of demand at second base, a position that he has never fielded with particular excellence.

Rumors of regression have to this point been greatly exaggerated, though, as Gennett is off to a fabulous start in the new year. Through 212 plate appearances this year, he’s slashing a healthy .340/.376/.558 with ten home runs. That’s good for a 156 wRC+. Despite typically middling defensive grades at second base, Gennett has already contributed 2.2 rWAR / 1.9 fWAR on the year.

Basically, Gennett is performing right now like a post-breakout Daniel Murphy. The added benefit here, of course, is that he’s younger and cheaper. Gennett is even torching lefties thus far, with a .364/.375/.545 slash that quiets one of the most obvious critiques of his abilities at the plate.

Impressive as Gennett has been, though, some concerns continue to nag. Surely, he won’t be able to sustain a .405 batting average on balls in play. Statcast numbers again indicate that he has been somewhat fortunate, grading him at a .349 xwOBA that substantially lags his actual .397 wOBA. Gennett certainly has not shown any leaps in the plate-discipline department, as he has an unremarkable combination of a 20.7% strikeout and 5.1% walk rate to begin the 2018 season. And these signals are all the more evident in his 57 plate appearances against southpaws (.514 BABIP, 18:1 K/BB).

It still seems, then, that some regression is in store. But Gennett has shown signs of real change, too. He has quietly converted groundballs to line drives of late. In 2016, he put the ball on the ground 44.7% of the time and hit liners on 20.8% of his batted balls. Thus far in 2018, he’s at 37.3% and 26.6%, respectively. Though he’s not a particularly dramatic participant in the Launch Angle Revolution, Gennett has steadily elevated over time, moving from an average of 10.5 degrees (2015) to 11.7 degrees (2016) to 12.8 degrees (2017). This year, so far, he sits at 14.4 degrees on average. Of late, Gennett has maintained a lofty homer-per-fly rate (20.8% last year, 17.5% this).

An optimist might argue that this interesting blend of data points suggests that Gennett has honed in on being the best version of himself. He’s hitting the ball sharply on a line while generating well-struck high flies when that’s what’s available. That it has come through steady development rather than an obvious change in approach should not necessarily represent a red flag. Pessimists, on the other hand, will cite many of the above figures in support of the proposition that Gennett’s skills simply don’t support this kind of output. By that view, while he’s going well over an extended stretch, Gennett still hasn’t provided good reason to believe it’s sustainable. Projection systems, for instance, generally anticipate that he’ll settle into producing in range of the league-average rate.

We still have about two months of action left before the trade deadline, so the evidence is still being gathered. At some point, though, contending teams with a need at second base will need to decide whether it’s worth trying to pry Gennett loose from the Reds. Just how willing the Cincinnati organization is to deal, meanwhile, could depend in part upon whether and when top prospect Nick Senzel forces a promotion. But the biggest driver will likely be the quality of the offers.

There are a few other second basemen that will surely be weighed as deadline targets — MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently listed a few — but Gennett is the one presently pacing all MLB second baggers in offensive output. It’s hardly certain that there’ll be broad demand at the position. That may not be entirely necessary if Gennett truly stands out, but that’s just where the core question lies. Clearly, he has proven since joining the Reds that he’s a quality MLB player who can help a contender. But unless one or more teams come to believe he’s truly an everyday, high-level type of performer, it’s fair to wonder whether an offer will come in that’s strong enough to pique the Reds’ interest.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Trade Candidate: Cole Hamels

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The Rangers faced an uphill battle even before the season began, as they were chasing the defending World Series champions in the AL West. Now that the club is off to a 20-31 start, looking up at three other teams sporting winning records, it’s all but inevitable that the Texas organization will explore sales of veteran assets this summer.

There are a few interesting players to watch on the Rangers’ roster, with Adrian Beltre and Elvis Andrus certainly among them. But both of those veterans are currently situated on the DL, rather than the left side of the Texas infield, so it’s not the best time to look in at their market.

Instead, it’s southpaw Cole Hamels who seems the clearest possible trade piece at the moment. He’s a highly accomplished pitcher, with a resume that includes 16 postseason starts, who’s playing on an expiring contract. Through 58 2/3 innings on the season, Hamels owns a 3.38 ERA that’s nearly a spot-on match for his career average. While he’s no spring chicken at 34 years of age, that’s not much of a concern for a rental asset.

That’s not to say there aren’t any countervailing factors here. For one thing, Hamels wasn’t great last year, when he failed to record an ERA of 3.65 or below for the first time since way back in 2009. Even his 4.20 earned run mark, moreover, arguably required some good fortune. Hamels held opposing hitters to an unsustainable .251 batting average on balls in play. For the first time ever, he failed to record a double-digit swinging-strike rate (9.7% on the year) and struck out less than seven batters per nine (6.4). Hamels also hit the shelf for the first time in a long time owing to an early-season oblique injury.

There were some legitimate questions, then, entering the current season. Some, perhaps, have been answered. Though he missed eight starts in 2017, Hamels has otherwise been a paragon of durability, taking the ball thirty or more times in nine straight seasons (2008 through 2016). Unless something crops up between now and the trade deadline, teams will surely view Hamels as an excellent health bet over the final few months of the season.

But what kind of performance can be expected? In many regards, Hamels’s 2018 performance has encouraged. In particular, he has rebounded in terms of swings and misses (12.1% swinging strikes; 9.8 K/9). But there are some issues. Hamels has continued to hand out more free passes than he did earlier in his career. He has coughed up 1.69 homers per nine on a an 18.6% HR/FB rate. And he’s again benefiting from a low (.255) BABIP-against. The Statcast numbers indicate that opposing hitters have been unfortunate to record only a .317 wOBA, as their contact against him spits out a .352 xwOBA.

Taken together, it seems reasonable to view Hamels as a solid and reliable mid-rotation piece, but not a top-of-the-rotation arm. He’s producing a wide array of fielding-independent pitching numbers (4.94 FIP/4.12 xFIP/3.85 SIERA) thus far on the year, but all suggest that he’s more good than great at this stage.

Of greater importance, perhaps, is Hamels’s contract, which was originally signed with the Phillies just in advance of the 2012 trade deadline. The lefty is earning $22.5MM this season. Even if a contender feels that he’s worth every penny — which, as the above discussion suggests, may or may not quite be the case — that’s enough coin to be a potential stumbling block for teams that face luxury tax or other budgetary concerns.

There are some other contractual complications, too. The deal comes with a $20MM vesting/club option that carries a $6MM buyout. It’s not going to vest owing to the number of innings Hamels threw last year, but it’ll require some added financial wrangling nevertheless. An acquiring team could consider picking up Hamels at that rate for 2019, depending upon how the season shakes out, but also likely won’t want to sign up for the big buyout at the point of acquisition.

The Texas front office will not only have to sort out those matters, but will do so against the knowledge that Hamels has significant no-trade rights as well. He can be shipped to the Braves, Mariners, Phillies, Nationals, Rays, Cardinals, Cubs, Royals, and Astros without consent. Otherwise, the lefty will need to be consulted before a deal can be consummated. That may not necessarily prove a major stumbling block, but the presence of the option could come back into play if he’s not particularly interested in a certain locale for future seasons.

Certainly, the possibility for a tough-to-navigate situation does exist. While it still feels quite likely that Hamels will be dealt, it’s tough to say at this point exactly how it will come together.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Trade Candidate: J.T. Realmuto

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As the Marlins offloaded their fleet of talented outfielders over the winter, it began to feel inevitable that catcher J.T. Realmuto would be the next out the door. While there weren’t really any financial pressures at play — he’s earning just $2.9MM in his first year of arbitration eligibility — it stood to reason that the Miami organization might prefer to finish off a painful but necessary offseason and further build out its newly robust store of young talent.

Certainly, that seems to have been Realmuto’s hope. He asked for a trade even before Christian Yelich was moved and reiterated that stance thereafter. Given that stance, it seems unlikely that an extension will come together. The Marlins, likewise, are surely aware that the roster is unlikely to be competitive while they control Realmuto, who’s eligible for arbitration for two more seasons in the future.

Under the circumstances, it still feels more a question of when than whether the Fish will part with Realmuto. The coming trade deadline surely isn’t a hard stopping point, but it would be foolish for the organization not to market him vigorously. Dealing Yelich proved that the Marlins were ready to embrace a rebuild. Holding Realmuto over the winter does not indicate otherwise; rather, it showed that the club was also willing to exercise patience in achieving value for its best remaining assets.

While the decision not to move starter Dan Straily has not looked promising to this point — he’s struggling to keep the ball in the zone after a DL stint to open the year — the Marlins may yet be paid out for waiting on Realmuto, who has looked much better since his own return from the DL. Through 77 plate appearances, the 27-year-old has shown career-best form in walk rate (7.8%), strikeout rate (13.0%), and power (.206 ISO) while producing at an excellent .309/.382/.515 rate with the bat.

To be sure, Realmuto has not yet proven he can sustain that kind of productivity over the course of a full season. But it has not been BABIP-driven, as he’s carrying a reasonable .315 mark thus far in 2018. If anything, the Statcast results suggest he has been a bit unlucky, as Realmuto is credited with a lofty .410 xwOBA based upon the quality of his contact, handily outpacing his already-impressive .383 wOBA.

Regardless, Realmuto is immensely valuable even if he goes back to being a slightly above-average hitter, as he was over the prior two seasons. He’s youthful. He steals bases. He’s the most athletic catcher in baseball. He has long been lauded for his handling of an ever-changing Miami pitching staff.

If there’s a question — beyond whether he’s a useful or a very good hitter — it’s probably in the framing department. StatCorner has rated Realmuto as one of the worst catchers in the game at winning strikes for his pitchers. Baseball Prospectus, meanwhile, has identified significant improvement over the years and graded Realmuto quite well in this area last year. Without a clear consensus in the metrics, it’s tough to say anything conclusively, though perhaps potential acquiring teams would at a minimum expect to be able to draw more out of Realmuto in the framing department given his underlying physical tools.

Just how much value Realmuto can return will likely depend upon how he hits over the next two-plus months. Barring a serious injury or total collapse at the plate, though, he has already established himself as one of only a few young, everyday backstops in the game.

In this case, then, the Marlins will be marketing Realmuto not only as a mid-season upgrade but also as a solution for clubs that have future needs behind the dish. A high-quality, mid-prime catcher often costs quite a lot more than he’s set to receive. The Pirates seemingly got an appealing price when they promised Francisco Cervelli $31MM over three years in an extension. Russell Martin took down $82MM over a five-year term on the open market.

Starting catchers may not necessarily represent a traditional deadline asset class, but they’ve been moved before. Most recently, one-and-a-half affordable seasons of Jonathan Lucroy — then one of the game’s best and most-established backstops — were swapped (along with quality reliever Jeremy Jeffress) for two high-end prospects.

Teams interested in immediate catching help may have a few  other options. Wilson Ramos has been playing well and could be made available, though he’s more expensive now and will be a free agent after the season. Ditto, Lucroy. Perhaps the White Sox will dangle recent signee Welington Castillo, though he was evidently not strongly pursued by contenders over the offseason. The few poor-performing teams that possess established, controllable young catchers seem less likely to move them for a variety of reasons. With the Pirates and Braves contending to this point, some of the more appealing hypothetical rental targets (Cervelli, Kurt Suzuki, Tyler Flowers) may not be available.

In this setting, Realmuto could be in quite some demand. On paper, the Red Sox, Brewers, and Angels have the immediate and long-term need for improvement. The Nationals are getting useful work from behind the dish for the time being, but may well end up needing an upgrade this summer and still lack a long-term solution behind the dish. Though the Astros have been well-served by Brian McCann, they’d be a good fit for the present and future. While the Mets just added Devin Mesoraco, he doesn’t seem particularly likely to be the answer there. A few other teams — the Twins come to mind — could also conceivably emerge as suitors as well.

That’s just a preliminary glance, of course. Injuries and other developments can and surely will change the picture over the coming months. Generally, though, it seems reasonable to anticipate that the Marlins will have a good chance to secure a significant return for Realmuto this summer. While clubs that tried to structure a deal for him over the winter proved unwilling to meet the lofty asking price, the pressures of the trade deadline could help enhance the leverage available to the Miami front office.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Players Avoiding Arbitration: National League

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The deadline for MLB teams to exchange salary arbitration figures with their arbitration-eligible players is today at 1pm ET. As such, there will be a veritable flood of arb agreements piling up in the next few hours — especially in light of a more universal approach to the “file and trial” method for teams. (That is to say, those teams will no longer negotiate one-year deals after arb figures are exchanged and will instead head to a hearing with those players, barring an agreemenr on a multi-year deal.)

Note that you can keep an eye on all of today’s deals using MLBTR’s 2018 Arbitration Tracker, which can be filtered to show only the results of the team you follow and is also sortable by service time and dollar value of the agreement. All projections that are referenced come from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz’s annual compilation of projected arbitration salaries.

Onto today’s landslide of deals…

National League West

  • The Rockies have agreed to a $2MM salary with righty Chad Bettis, MLBTR has learned (Twitter link). That’s a fair sight more than his $1.5MM projection. Bettis surely would have had an opportunity to set a bigger platform for himself, but had to battle through testicular cancer before returning to the hill in 2017. Meanwhile, second baseman DJ LeMahieu has settled for a $8.5MM payday in his final year of arbitration, Jon Heyman of Fan Rag tweets. That’s just a hair short of the $8.8MM he was pegged for in MLBTR’s projections.
  • Giants second baseman Joe Panik is slated to earn $3.45MM in his first season of arb eligibility, Devan Fink of SB Nation was first to tweet. That’s just a hair shy of the $3.5MM that MLBTR projected. Lefty Will Smith has settled at $2.5MM, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). The club has also announced deals with its remaining arb-eligible players, right-handed relievers Sam Dyson ($4.6MM projection), Hunter Strickland ($1.7MM projection), and Cory Gearrin ($1.6MM projection). (H/t John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle, on Twitter). Strickland earns $1.55MM, Nightengale tweets.
  • The Padres and Freddy Galvis agreed to a $6.825MM deal for his lone season of team control in San Diego, tweets Robert Murray of FanRag Sports. Galvis, who spent the first several seasons of his career in Philadelphia before being traded this winter, had been projected to make $7.4MM. Infielder Cory Spangenberg settled at $1.7MM, Heyman tweets, falling below a $2.0MM projection. San Diego has also reached agreements with righty Kirby Yates and outfielder Matt Szczur, the team announced. Yates will earn $1,062,500, Heyman tweets, which is just shy of his $1.1MM projection. Szczur, meanwhile, will get $950K, a healthy boost over his $800K projection, per Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune (Twitter link).
  • The Diamondbacks agreed to a $7.75MM deal with center fielder A.J. Pollock, Murray tweets. Pollock was projected to earn $8.4MM in his final year of eligibility before free agency. Murray also notes that Brad Boxberger is set to earn $1.85MM next year (Twitter link). Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic adds that lefty Andrew Chafin ($1.2MM projection) and the D-backs have a $1.195MM deal in place. Third baseman Jake Lamb, meanwhile, agreed to a $4.275MM deal with the Diamondbacks, according to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (Twitter link). Lamb, eligible for arbitration for the first time, was projected to earn $4.7MM. He’s controllable through 2020. And ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick tweets that Chris Herrmann ($1.4MM projection) landed a $1.3MM deal. Righty Taijuan Walker has settled for $4.825MM, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter), which is within range but shy of the $5.0MM he projected for. Lefty Robbie Ray has settled at $3.95MM, per Nightengale (Twitter link), which falls short of his $4.2MM projection. Infielder Nick Ahmed will $1.275MM, per Heyman (via Twitter), which tops the projected figure of $1.1MM. Arizona has also announced that Chris Owings and David Peralta have agreed to terms.
  • The Dodgers are in agreement on a $6MM deal with lefty Alex Wood, per Jon Heyman of Fan Rag (via Twitter). He had projected at $6.4MM. Meanwhile, righty Josh Fields agreed to a $2.2MM deal, tweets Murray. Heyman tweets that Enrique Hernandez will earn $1.6MM. Fields’ projection of $2.2MM was on the money, whereas Hernandez topped his mark by $300K. Fields is controlled through 2019, while Hernandez is controllable through 2020. Southpaw Tony Cingrani gets $2.3MM, Murray tweets, which is just a shade over his $2.2MM projection. Outfielder Joc Pederson has also settled, per J.P. Hoornstra of the Southern California News Group (via Twitter), with Beth Harris of the Associated Press reporting a $2.6MM salary that rather handily tops the $2.0MM that MLBTR projected.

National League Central

  • All three remaining Cardinals arb-eligibles have agreed to deals, MLB.com’s Jenifer Langosch tweets. Marcell Ozuna will earn $9MM after drawin a much larger $10.9MM projection, Heyman tweets. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz had explained that Ozuna likely wouldn’t quite reach the amount the algorithm suggested, though the actual salary still comes in a bit shy of expectations. Lefty Tyler Lyons ($1.3MM projection) receives $1.2MM, per Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch (via Twitter). The Cards have also reached agreement with Michael Wacha for $5.3MM, per Nightengale (via Twitter); he was projected to earn $5.9MM.
  • The Reds agreed to a $860K salary with Anthony DeSclafani, tweets Murray. DeSclafani missed the 2017 season due to arm troubles and had been projected to earn $1.1MM. He’ll remain under Reds control through 2020. Billy Hamilton and the Reds have settled on a one-year deal worth $4.6MM, tweets Murray. A popular trade candidate this offseason, Hamilton was projected to earn $5MM and comes with another two seasons of team control. Murray also conveys that Michael Lorenzen agreed to a $1.3125MM deal, which lines up fairly well with his $1.4MM projection.
  • The Cubs have struck a deal with lefty Justin Wilson, agreeing to a one-year, $4.25MM pact, according to Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times (Twitter link). Wilson, who had been projected at $4.3MM, will be a free agent next winter. The Cubs alsoagreed to a $950K salary with infielder Tommy La Stella, tweets MLB.com’s Carrie Muskat. La Stella was projected to make $1MM in his first offseason of arbitration eligiblity and can be controlled through 2020. Right-hander Kyle Hendricks and the Cubs have agreed to a $4.175MM salary, per Nightengale (on Twitter). That sum comes in a fair bit shy of his projected $4.9MM projection as a first-time eligible player. The Cubs control Hendricks through the 2020 season. Chicago also agreed with Addison Russell, per Wittenmyer (Twitter link). The shortstop will receive $3.2MM for the coming season.
  • Nightengale reports (on Twitter) that the Brewers and breakout closer Corey Knebel settled at $3.65MM. As a Super Two player, Knebel can be controlled through the 2021 season and will be arb-eligible thrice more. He was projected at $4.1MM. MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy tweets that the Brewers and right-hander Jimmy Nelson settled at $3.7MM, which falls $1MM shy of his $4.7MM projection (though some of that discrepancy may be due to Nelson’s shoulder injury). Milwaukee also announced a deal for infielders Jonathan Villar (projected at $3MM) and Hernan Perez (projected at $2.2MM). McCalvy reports that Villar will earn $2.55MM, while terms of Perez’s deal are not yet available.
  • The Pirates have avoided arbitration with shortstop Jordy Mercer by settling on a $6.75MM salary for 2018, tweets Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. Mercer, who’d been projected to earn $6.5MM, is entering his final year of team control and will be a free agent next winter. Biertempfel also reports that Gerrit Cole will earn that same $6.75MM salary in 2018 — a $3MM raise over last year (Twitter link). He has two years of control remaining and had been projected to earn $7.4MM. Righty George Kontos has also agreed to terms, per Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review (via Twitter). He had projected for $2.7MM and will receive a smidge more, at $2,725,000, per Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette (Twitter link).

National League East

  • The Braves reached a $3.4MM deal with righty Arodys Vizcaino, per Jon Heyman of FanRag (Twitter link). He’d been projected at $3.7MM. The Braves and righty Dan Winkler agreed to a $610K salary for the upcoming season, tweets Mark Bowman of MLB.com. Winkler tossed just 14 1/3 innings in the Majors this year as he made his way back from elbow surgery. He’d projected at $800K.
  • The Marlins and Miguel Rojas agreed to a $1.18MM deal for 2018, Heyman tweets, placing him north of his $1.1MM projection. Rojas should see additional playing time following the Marlins’ wave of trades this offseason. He’s controlled through 2020. Miami also has a deal in place with infielder Derek Dietrich for $2.9MM, Heyman tweets, after projecting at $3.2MM.
  • The Mets were able to settle perhaps their most notable arb case, agreeing to a $7.4MM deal with righty Jacob deGrom, per James Wagner of the New York Times (via Twitter). That’s well shy of his $9.2MM projection, though MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz had explained the formula likely overestimated deGrom’s earning power by quite a wide margin. Fellow top righty Noah Syndergaard gets $2.975MM, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter), which goes a fair sight past the $1.9MM projection for the outstanding young starter, whose 2017 season was limited by injury. And reliever AJ Ramos will take home $9.225MM, according to Wagner (via Twitter). That’s just barely past the $9.2MM projection.  Wilmer Flores has also avoided arbitration with the Mets, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today Sports (on Twitter). He’ll receive a $3.4MM salary, which falls within $300K of his projected rate. The Mets control Flores through the 2019 campaign. The Mets and right-hander Matt Harvey agreed to a one-year deal worth $5.625MM, tweets Nightengale. Harvey, who is a free agent next winter, had been projected to earn $5.9MM. Meanwhile, Marc Carig of Newsday tweets that Jeurys Familia will earn $7.925MM for the upcoming year, while Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith reports that catcher Travis d’Arnaud will earn $3.475MM in 2018 (Twitter link). Familia, a free agent next winter, was projected at $7.4MM. The Mets control d’Arnaud through 2019, and his projection was $3.4MM. Righty Hansel Robles gets $900K, Heyman tweets.
  • Also via Nightengale (Twitter link), the Nationals agreed to a $6.475MM salary for 2018 with right-hander Tanner Roark. That falls about $1MM shy of his $7.5MM projection but still represents a noted raise of $4.315MM for Roark, whom the Nats control through 2019. Jorge Castillo of the Washington Post adds that Michael Taylor will earn $2.525MM next year. Taylor is controlled through 2020 and was projected at $2.3MM.
  • The Phillies and Maikel Franco settled on a $2.95MM salary for the 2018 season, reports Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com (Twitter link). Franco, a Super Two player who’d been projected at $3.6MM, remains under club control with the Phils through the 2021 season. Second bagger Cesar Hernandez will earn at a $5.1MM rate in 2018, per MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki (via Twitter). That beats his $4.7MM projection and wraps up this year’s arb business for the Phillies.

Curtis Granderson Clears Revocable Waivers

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Mets outfielder Curtis Granderson has cleared revocable waivers, FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal tweets. Like his teammate Jay Bruce, he can now be traded without being claimed. Unlike Bruce, Granderson does not have a limited no-trade clause.

There were various reports about the possibility the Mets would trade Granderson prior to the July 31 deadline, and he was linked to the Brewers. In the end, obviously, the Mets held onto him. Granderson is in the middle of what’s become a fairly typical Granderson season — he has a very low batting average (.223), but compensates for it with walks (48 in 358 plate appearances) and good power (14 home runs). The 36-year-old doesn’t have the speed he once did and rates as a below-average defender in center, although he still grades out fairly well in right. He rated fifth in our recent list of the top August trade candidates.

Granderson is in the last season of the four-year, $60MM deal he signed with the Mets in December 2013. He’s owed a bit under $5MM for the remainder of the season.

AL Notes: Trade Chatter, Richards, M’s, Rangers, Profar, Draft

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The trade deadline chatter hasn’t really picked up yet, perhaps in large part owing to the tightly packed American League. Jon Heyman of Fan Rag recently took his weekly spin around the A.L., providing a few items of note. While there has been a bit of buzz around Justin Verlander, the Tigers haven’t asked him to provide a list of teams to which he’d permit a trade. The Astros, meanwhile, seem to be hoping for a chance at adding a difference-making starter, but don’t know whether such an arm will end up being made available. And the White Sox, unsurprisingly, are ready and willing to get deals done.

Here’s more from the American League:

  • It’s still not clear when the Angels can expect righty Garrett Richards to return, but Pedro Moura of the Los Angeles Times provides an update (Twitter links). The biceps nerve irritation he has experienced isn’t completely relieved, but it has improved. Just when he’ll be cleared to  throw, though, has yet to be determined — and no doubt there’ll be a lengthy and cautious build-up once the medical staff gives a go-ahead.
  • Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto suggests that he still doesn’t perceive a need to shake things up too drastically at the deadline, despite a lull that has the M’s now sitting four games under .500. As MLB.com’s Greg Johns reports, Dipoto says that the team’s “roster plan has never really changed.” While buy and sell-side opportunities could arise at the deadline, it seems a major shift in either direction is unlikely. Starting pitching, clearly, is a prime need. “We’re not going to empty both barrels to try to go out and find the ace to perch atop the rotation to take us to the promised land, because that guy doesn’t exist,” said Dipoto. But he also noted that the trade deadline is but one of “two windows when you can access starting pitching” and promised at least to “stay in tune with” the market for starters.
  • There’s a similar sentiment in Texas, it seems. It would take “unique circumstances” for the Rangers to sell veteran players at the deadline, GM Jon Daniels tells Jeff Wilson of the Forth Worth Star-Telegram. While Texas is likely only competing for a Wild Card at this point, neither is the organization facing any need to trim salary, per the report. With confidence within the organization seemingly still running high, it appears the likeliest scenario is that the team will mostly look to maintain its roster through the non-waiver trade period.
  • Meanwhile, it’s still unclear what will happen with Rangers infielder/outfielder Jurickson Profar, as Wilson writes. Presumably, the still youthful former top prospect could end up playing a significant role with Texas or be utilized as a trade chip over the summer. For the time being, he’s receiving only brief stints in the majors. Regardless of how things turn out, Profar says that he’s dealing with things by playing his hardest wherever that may be — mostly, this year, at Triple-A. He has hit well at Round Rock, slashing .303/.376/.444 in 223 plate appearances this year, and would still be an interesting trade candidate to dangle this summer.
  • The Rays failed to sign supplemental first-round draft pick Drew Rasmussen, as MLB.com’s Jim Callis first tweeted. It seems that Rasmussen will not be turned loose in free agency, as John Manuel of Baseball America writes; instead, he’ll likely head back to Oregon State for his senior year. Tampa Bay, meanwhile, is still hoping the league will award it a compensatory pick in next year’s draft. (While the organization did not make a sufficient offer to do so, it feels that there were issues with Rasmussen’s pre-draft MRIs.) Meanwhile, Orioles fourth-rounder Jack Conlon will be granted unrestricted free agency after going unsigned, as BA’s Hudson Belinsky explains. That gives him the option of signing on with any MLB organization — without being capped by bonus pools — or instead heading to college. Angels fifth-rounder Joe Booker was the only other player from the first ten rounds of the draft to go unsigned, as Belinsky tweeted he’ll instead honor a commitment to South Alabama.

Giants Place Mark Melancon On 10-Day DL

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The Giants have placed closer Mark Melancon on the 10-day DL, per a club announcement. He is dealing with the same pronator issue that forced him out earlier this year. Dan Slania will take the open roster spot.

Melancon, 32, has not quite looked himself since joining the Giants on a four-year, $62MM deal over the winter. Through 20 2/3 innings on the year, he has allowed ten earned runs on 25 hits. Though he still maintains typically strong strikeout and walk numbers — 8.3 K/9 against 1.3 BB/9 — the veteran has also coughed up three long balls and seen his groundball rate drop to 50.8% with his swinging-strike rate falling to 9.7% (both far lower than in recent seasons).

Despite enduring a bit of a rough stretch, Melancon could still feature as a trade candidate over the summer. That all depends upon just how interested the Giants are in shedding from future salary — while also embarking upon another search for a closer. (Interestingly, recently acquired righty Sam Dyson will take over closing duties for the time being after washing out of that role with the Rangers.) Though San Francisco is buried in the standings, the organization still has an extensive array of high-priced veteran players and seems likely to attempt to contend again in 2018.

The injury, though, functions as a major bit of uncertainty. It’s still possible that he could be dealt if he’s able to return and pitch effectively before the deadline. And Melancon’s contract is big enough that he could also be moved in August. But the forearm certainly enhances the risk in the hefty remaining value on the deal, particularly in the case of an older relief pitcher.

Trade Candidate: Christian Yelich

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The Marlins signed outfielder Christian Yelich to a seven-year, $49.57MM contract extension in 2015 with the idea that he’d be a long-term cornerstone in Miami, and that could still end up as the case. However, after rejecting other teams’ overtures for Yelich in the past, the Marlins will reportedly listen to offers for the 25-year-old if they’re not in the playoff hunt near next month’s trade deadline.

At 25-33 and 12 games back of the NL East-leading Nationals, Miami is all but out of its division race already, which leaves a wild-card berth as its only hope. The Marlins are a lofty 9.5 games back of the NL’s last playoff spot, though, and their minus-26 run differential isn’t indicative of a sleeper team whose record is particularly unlucky.

Barring a major turnaround in the coming weeks, the Marlins are probably going to sell in an effort to strengthen their farm system. The Fish clearly need to replenish their prospect pool, which ESPN’s Keith Law (subscription required and recommended) ranked 29th in the majors entering the season and could see promising left-hander Braxton Garrett undergo Tommy John surgery. As arguably Miami’s best trade chip, dealing Yelich would add much-needed talent to the organization’s pipeline, though it would obviously further weaken whatever chances it has to compete in the near future.

Christian Yelich

Yelich, a 2010 first-round pick who made his big league debut in 2013, established himself as a high-average, high-OBP hitter who could steal double-digit bases and play a quality left field during his first two-plus years in the league. While that blend of skills made Yelich quite valuable, the lefty-swinger didn’t complement it with much power, hitting only 20 home runs and posting a .116 ISO in 1,458 plate appearances. Last year was a different story, though, as Yelich swatted 21 homers and recorded a .185 ISO (league average was .162) in 659 PAs en route to a career-best .298/.376/.483 line and his second 4-fWAR season.

Now, Yelich is again on pace for a respectable campaign (he has accrued 1.3 fWAR in 246 plate trips), but the terrific offensive production he registered from 2013-16 hasn’t been present. At .259/.343/.392, Yelich has logged a league-average OPS+ (100) and a slightly below-average wRC+ (97). With a .132 ISO, the grounder-hitting Yelich has also lost much of the power he showed last season. One obvious problem has been a lack of line drives, as Yelich’s 17.1 percent mark is both a career worst and a 6.3 percent decline from last season.

Even if Yelich’s batted-ball profile stays the same, there are reasons to expect positive regression in his production. Yelich’s batting average on balls in play (.286) is 68 points lower than his career figure (.354), for one, and his .342 xwOBA (via Baseball Savant) indicates he deserves better than his actual wOBA (.319). Plus, Yelich has continued to walk at a solid clip (10.6 percent, compared to a career 10.4 percent), and has not contributed to the league’s growing strikeout trend. Yelich has struck out just 16.7 percent of the time, which is far better than both his lifetime mark (20.4) and the league average (21.6).

While Yelich’s offensive game is the main reason he’s so highly regarded, defense has also been a strength. Yelich combined for 32 Defensive Runs Saved and a 12.3 Ultimate Zone Rating in left field from 2013-16, leading the Marlins to shift him to the outfield’s most important position – center – during the offseason. The returns have been encouraging so far, albeit over a small sample, with Yelich having saved a pair of runs and contributed a 7.5 UZR/150.

Affordable, well-rounded players – especially those who can handle a premium position – obviously carry major value, evidenced by the prospect haul the Nationals sent to the White Sox for Adam Eaton over the winter. Washington parted with two of MLB.com’s top 40 prospects, right-handers Lucas Giolito (No. 3) and Reynaldo Lopez (No. 38), as well as 2016 first-round righty Dane Dunning to acquire up to five years and $38.4MM of Eaton. Yelich is three years younger than Eaton and also comes at a very reasonable cost. He’s due around $45MM through 2021 and either a $15MM club option or a $1.25MM buyout in 2022. Yelich has already outperformed the worth of his contract, per FanGraphs, which values his production at $64.5MM dating back to 2015.

If the Marlins do market the remainder of Yelich’s 20s prior to the deadline, plenty of potential suitors are likely to emerge. Thanks to Yelich’s age and team control, even clubs that aren’t in the playoff hunt this season (but view themselves as near-future contenders) could attempt to acquire him. As such, the Marlins would probably be in position to add multiple high-end youngsters to a system that, in Baseball America’s view, only has one top 100 prospect. That prospect, Garrett, falls toward the low end of BA’s list (No. 80) and is now facing a rather uncertain future on account of his elbow injury.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Trade Candidate: Gerrit Cole

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Major league teams are always on the lookout for established, affordable pitching. That fact could make right-hander Gerrit Cole, he of the $3.75MM salary, among the most appealing players available if the Pirates shop him prior to the trade deadline.

While Cole has drawn interest, there’s no indication Pittsburgh will place him on the block in the next couple months. However, the Pirates are just 25-31 – four games behind the NL Central-leading Brewers and eight games out of a wild-card spot – so it looks likely they’ll end up selling. As such, it could behoove the Bucs to at least listen to offers for Cole, especially if they’re unconvinced they’ll be able to return to their playoff-caliber ways of 2013-15 in the near future. The Pirates’ window with Cole is running out (he’s controllable via arbitration through 2019), and as a low-payroll outfit, odds are the team won’t be able to keep the Scott Boras client from hitting free agency if it elects against trading him in the coming years.

Gerrit Cole

The problem for the Pirates, both from a contending standpoint and for Cole’s trade value, is that the 26-year-old has taken steps backward since his earlier days in the league. During his best season, 2015, Cole was a bona fide ace who notched 208 innings of 2.60 ERA ball (with a 2.66 FIP) and helped his cause with strong strikeout, walk and ground-ball rates. Cole’s ERA went up nearly a run and a half last year (3.88, with a still-impressive 3.33 FIP) as his strikeout rate sunk, but injuries may have played a part in that. Pittsburgh shut down Cole in early September after just 116 innings and multiple stints on the disabled list – one for a strained triceps and another for elbow inflammation.

Fortunately, Cole has stayed healthy this year and already amassed 71 2/3 frames, but the results haven’t been great. While Cole has continued to limit walks (2.01 per nine) and generate grounders (46 percent), he ranks middle of the pack or worse among FanGraphs’ 89 qualifying starters in ERA (4.27, 55th), FIP (4.77, 67th), K/9 (7.66, 50th) and strikeout percentage (20.3, 47th). The main culprit for Cole’s run prevention issues is a bloated home run-to-fly ball ratio (19.7 percent), up from a career 9.3 percent. With 15 homers allowed, Cole has already established a career worst and yielded eight more long balls than he did during his truncated 2016.

Cole’s history indicates he’ll positively regress in the home run department, but it’s not a sure thing if his fastball doesn’t regain its effectiveness. Although Cole sits second among starters in average sinker velocity (96.15) and third in four-seam velo (96.73), according to Baseball Prospectus, he hasn’t exactly dominated with those pitches. Back in 2015, Cole had the second-most valuable fastball among starters, per FanGraphs, but it has been the ninth-worst pitch of its kind so far this year. Hitters have posted a .947 OPS against Cole’s four-seamer and a .945 mark versus his sinker, the two pitches he has leaned on the most, while his third, fourth and fifth offerings (his slider, changeup and knuckle-curve) have yielded an OPS of .644, .645 and .697, respectively.

Left-handed hitters have been especially tough on Cole, having slashed .276/.308/.572 with 10 homers and held their own against nearly all of his pitches, primarily his four-seamer. That certainly wasn’t the case when Cole’s four-seamer stymied lefties in 2015, and heat maps courtesy of FanGraphs (click to view: 2015, 2017) indicate he’s not locating the pitch as precisely as he did then. Meanwhile, with the exception of his sinker, Cole’s repertoire has limited same-handed batters, who have hit .244/.304/.314 against him. Four of righties’ five HRs off Cole have come against his sinker, which was tough to square up during his career year. As Brooks Baseball’s heat maps show (click to view: 2015, 2017), Cole’s not coming inside against righties with his sinker to nearly the extent that he did in the past, and the pitch has too often found the middle of the plate.

In fairness to Cole, his struggles this year largely boil down to his most recent three starts, a 14 2/3-inning stretch in which he gave up a combined 16 earned runs on 28 hits and eight homers. As recently as May 21, Cole was running a sub-3.00 ERA, and eight of his first nine outings were quality starts. If that version of Cole resurfaces and the Pirates do shop him by the end of July, they’d be within reason to request a prospect bounty in return. On the other hand, should the Cole who has shown up over the past two weeks stick around, Pittsburgh might be better served to keep the fifth-year man through season’s end and market him over the winter or during the 2018 campaign. After all, if Cole’s woes against opposite-handed batters continue, starter-needy contenders like the Astros, Yankees and Rockies – all of whom play in hitter-friendly parks – may not be keen on parting with multiple high-end prospects for someone generating so-so results.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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