Tampa Bay’s rotation took a serious hit this week when the team shipped left-hander Blake Snell to San Diego, and general manager Erik Neander admitted Tuesday (via Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times) that the Rays “are not as good a team without him.” Despite that, Neander insisted to Topkin and other reporters that the Rays, who won the American League in 2020, still plan to compete for a championship.
“Our goal is to win a World Series,” Neander said. “Want to make that that very, very clear. … It’s our philosophy, it’s our belief that the best way for us to achieve that goal is to construct playoff-caliber teams year in, year out. For every team that we put out there to have a shot. To avoid the valleys. To not take any years off.”
The Rays seem to be of the belief that the return they received for Snell will help them continue to push for a title for the long haul. On paper, they did get an impressive package for Snell, acquiring three prospects – Luis Patino, Cole Wilcox and Blake Hunt – as well as catcher Francisco Mejia. As Neander suggested, however, it’s tough to see them as a better team right now in the wake of the trade. Even before losing Snell, the Rays said goodbye to right-hander Charlie Morton in free agency. Their only notable free-agent addition of the offseason has been righty Michael Wacha, who had immense difficulty keeping runs off the board with the Cardinals and Mets from 2019-20.
It’s anyone’s guess how the Rays will fill out their 2021 rotation after Wacha, Tyler Glasnow and Ryan Yarbrough, but they are “in aggressive pursuit of another starter,” Topkin writes. Getting rid of Snell’s three-year, $39MM contract gives the team some money to spend on a short-term deal in free agency if it’s willing, notes Topkin, who adds that the Rays should have a payroll in the $60MM range. The Rays also boast the game’s No. 1 farm system, so they could try to trade for starting help.
While the Rays don’t look as strong as they did a couple months ago, Neander said, “We have a lot of confidence in the group that we have here and we’ve got a lot of time left to continue to build this club out and to get this puzzle where we want it.” Although their budget is at the bottom of the league, Neander & Co. have found a way to keep the Rays afloat on a regular basis. However, Neander acknowledged that there’s “a lot of work to do” with Snell out of the mix.
Despite being a penny pinching team the Rays may be maybe they try to buy low on Kluber?
Now that would be interesting if they have the cash
I could see Paxton or Kluber.
Good thoughts. They also have McClanahan and Honeywell, who were both showing good stuff at the alt site. Although Honeywell will have to get some minor league IP after being out for 3 years and being fragile.
Penny pinching?
Sure Tampa could spend $150+mil & be like the Phillies.
Or
They can flip 1 SP for 3 Prospects & Catcher.
One of those Prospects could end up being better than Snell at a fraction of the cost.
Tampa needed both long & short term catching help & this trade also took care of that. The other pitcher Wilcox is no slouch either in this trade.
Plus Tampa now has some $ freed up to offer a few FA SPs a opportunity to pitch for a playoff contender in 2021.
Snell pitches well in the playoffs. That’s definitely something they’ll miss.
I’m confident they’ll find a way to replace the 14 outs they’d allow him to get on occasion.
Lol yeah. Analytics are great but when the other team celebrates after you yank your starter, you probably made the wrong move.
Analytics help in many situations, but in do or die games, especially more so in the WS, you gotta go with your gut.
When that one game is all that matters, solely using analytics (which are heavily based on likelihood of different outcomes over a large sample size) is not smart. You have to pay attention to the game in front of you.
5 innings and loads of walks… it looked good but that usually catches up with you.
He hadn’t walked anyone.
just a cheap team being cheap
Obviously You’re not wrong. The lack of revenue sharing is the biggest blow to them imo, more so than the lack of fans
With that said, they are WAY more likely to make the playoffs than Pitt, KC and other cheap clubs. So they really deserve to be in a different grouping, imo. I do believe there is another shoe to drop for the 2021 Rays
Just think of this, Dodgers get to the World Series a few years back, lose and then trade Kershaw. It is sad to see contenders trade away talent, but you can’t have a fan base by doing this. If it’s that bad in TB, relocate them.
I’ve had the same thought that the rays do this to themselves. Fans are loyal to teams, but they are drawn there by players. Imagine being a rays fan and trying to buy a jersey? Better leave it blank because whatever star player is on the back won’t be there for much longer.
3 years and $39M for a top of the rotation pitcher is pretty cheap. If that is budget breaking than time to sell the team. I under the stadium issue, but fans will come out for a good team, there is just no reason to be loyal to that team.
Ully, imagine the package of players 3 years of Kershaw would have brought back to the Dodgers. And how those controllable, budding stars would have contributed to the Dodgers ongoing success. And how the young players would allow the Dodgers to extend Bellinger and Seager with no hesitation or budget constraints.
Lots of ways to build an annual contender. Dodgers and Rays do it two completely different ways, but both have had great success. The one common denominator is that they both draft and develop exceedingly well.
I was a season ticket holder for a few years. When my David Price Jersey became obsolete, I decided to play it safe and get a rookie’s jersey. So that Jake Bauers jersey really paid off…
Fun team but it takes a lot of research to stay up to date on the current roster at any given time…♂️
Fans go to games to watch the game and players that are on that team right then, they don’t go to a game in 2020 because the rays will have Blake snell in 2021 your argument makes no sense. This payroll cut is because of this covid season and the 10’s of millions of dollars the team lost. Has nothing to Do with fans or Jersey sales.
My Rays jersey is blank for this reason. I get into so many arguments with other Rays fans about the Rays not keeping anybody the fans. to gravitate to. It will be nice for the Rays to have a stud hitter
@Angels & NL West I see your point on the players that Kershaw would bring in to continue long term success. But your point about saving that money for extending Bellinger or Seager is void because the Rays would just trade those players too.
Must be really confusing and hard for you to understand baseball when you’re so blissfully ignorant. Get over your thoughts on the owners, start thinking what would I do if I were the gm with the budget I have. You’ll sound a lot smarter.
iverbure, I think Raysfan17 may be just speaking about the “game” of baseball. I understand his/her beef. I feel like you’re talking more about the “business” of baseball. I can totally understand his/her perspective. The Rays have a successful system but, it’s good primarily for the owner. I feel fans want to win but also want to connect with players as well. The Ray’s way of doing things now makes it almost impossible to have any connection to a player. When I think of the Rays, I don’t think of any specific player. I think of it more like a well run business. Not a baseball team for fans of the game who go to see their favorite players. If you’re happy with the “business of it,” more power to you, but fans of the “game” may not be. Listen, I get it The Rays, they’re always in contention but I truly feel bad for fans who want to make and keep a connection to the players on their team.
Just sayin’.
No clue how fans get to connect to a player by watching it on tv or sitting in a stadium seat but okay. It’s not like new players don’t get just as much love as long as they’re on the team they get attention. You think of price or Longoria when you think of the Rays and one was too expensive and the other we traded just in time before he was dead weight. I guess so “fans” care about connecting to one player if that means hearing their name on the tv or intercom but I have no idea how you actually have a connection with a player…. baffles me. Because I couldn’t give two craps who the players are as long as we win
Some people connect with players by buying jerseys, going to a game and catching a baseball thrown to them by their favorite player or getting an autograph signed by their favorite player at the park. If you are one of the people who don’t care about the players that’s fine.
When I think of David Price, I think of him as a Red Sox pitcher not a Ray. Longoria maybe (forgot he was a Ray). Point is, not every Rays fan feels like you (kc38 or verbure). If you’re baffled that others don’t feel as you do then I really don’t know what to say. The other point is those players are few and far between. At the end of the day, if the Rays win a World Series most people in 5 years probably won’t be able to name half the players without a google search. and most likely every player on that winning WS team will be on another team. Happy New Year.
Cheap cheap is the season tickets when we can go back to stadium. Ages 22-28 is the sweet spot on mlb player value. Let’s keep that way as well as my free parking.
If they are in aggressive pursuit of a pitcher it would completely defeat the purpose of this trade if they sign a FA.
Why? They added quality young depth. If they want they could sign multiple buy low guys and see who still has it.
It’s better than trading those prospects for Musgrove or Boyd.
You don’t get controllable prospects by signing a pitcher.
Or they clear that space on the payroll, pick up some nice pieces, and use the savings to get a replacement (albeit not as good but you get the picture).
To me it’s more odd that they declined the 15M option that they had for Morton. Especially if they knew they were trading Snell.
Morton can’t and won’t last forever, and this year was definitely a step back from his usual
I mean we need to stop pretending every salary dump move works for the Rays. They’re run really well, and they’ve made some great moves within their budget. Selling high is smart and often works for the Rays, but this isn’t a win-now move. The Rays are significantly worse for the near future.
… unless they use the additional prospect capital to swing a trade for someone like Castillo
Then are they still significantly worse?
That’s a big if.
Is it though? The rays have won 90+ Games more often than the Yankees in the last decade, while doing these trades fairly often. To assume that they are just going to stop now, when the GM says they are not stopping now, is just ignorant
They won’t go sign Bauer. But to assume they won’t use the number one farm system to improve just doesn’t make sense
I mean fair point. It’s worked more often than it hasn’t recently. So we’ll see.
Actually, it’s an “unless,” and there’s plenty of time until the season starts.
TB is one of a handful of teams I assume always has a 1 year/3 year/ 5 year plan to compete as many years as possible
Their payroll is often 1/3 of NY or Chi or Bos or LA. That 13M to Snell has an impact similar to 30M, maybe 40M To those big markets. They gotta be smart. They cannot afford to miss the opportunity to get the best return on an asset
If Snell as a Ray goes down in 2021 to an injury, 1/4 of their payroll is on the side. That’s huge!
Like LA, they draft at the end of the draft now as well. They have to build from more than just the draft. Hence, these trades. But they’ve earned the benefit of the doubt that they have a plan, imo
The clock strikes midnight in 21 for the rats, you can bet the baby’s milk money on it.
@von I think when people look objectively at their moves, the rays do the best they can with the little leverage they usually have. I mean when you’re constantly in the position of shedding salary they’re already at a disadvantage because teams know they can wait them out.
Do I think the rays have won every trade they’ve made? No. Do I think they’ve won more than they’ve lost? yes. Do I think aside from the archer trade that the fans thought at the time, the rays lost the trade and usually ended up winning, yes.
Unfortunately with the shoestring budget they have not every move is going to be win now. It’s the reality of their current situation.
Honeywell, Patino, and (if he is coming back from TJ) Chirinos will be the guys at the front of the line to replace Snell. Rays’ fans should be happy about that.
I also saw an MLB Youtuber suggest that maybe Wilcox could slide into the Rays pen next season despite his age. The high velo fastball+slider combo would fit well in how the Rays work their pen. I thought it was an interesting thought.
Except that Patino is nowhere near ready to be in a big league rotation. Wilcox hasn’t thrown a professional pitch so wishful thinking there
Patino has gotten some MLB innings in. Maybe he starts the season at AAA. He definitely has to issue less walks to be more effective in MLB. Tampa had a glaring issue at catcher & this trade brought back 2 along with the pitchers.
McKay, McClanahan, and Honeywell to replace Snell and Morton. Patino will probably show up sometime in 2021. Would not surprise me if they win the division again. I wouldn’t worry too much about Tampa.
Let’s spend $150mil+ & not make the playoffs!
L. Patino could end up being the better SP than Snell over the next 4 seasons & cost the Rays a fraction of what Snell will earn (QO if the Padres use it on him will be even more than Snell’s last season).
Tampa also added 2 needed catchers & another Pitcher who could also be better than Snell.
Patino has the better FB than Snell & his other pitches are very good.
Tampa could now offer many remaining FA SPs a 1 year (or 2 years) offer to pitch for them & have a chance at the postseason.
You people have obviously not seen Patino throw
Snell is going to put up monster numbers in those spacious west coast yards through the duration of his current contract. The wild card is Mejia. He needs to prove he belongs in the bigs.
Despite losing Morton & Snell, Rays are still expected to have high odds to win the 2021 WS. That’s why what Neander said is correct.
actionnetwork.com/mlb/2021-world-series-odds-track…
I agree. Cheap =/= not competing, with TB at least
As a Padres fan, the Rays got a heck of a package.
I sympathize though. Years of watching fire sales with the Pads in the past ugh.
Still Gary Sheffield was shipped to the Marlins in a firesale purge producing one Trevor Hoffman so you never know.
No organization know how to unearth and develop talent like the Rays.
There weren’t room for the guys on the Pads but absolutely the Rays are going to get value out of this trade!
Hope the Pads and Rays match up again in the future!
Rays already got playoff spot past two years and 2 ALCS wins past 13 years. As a Rays fan, I sympathize with Padres not being able to advance playoff for 13 years.
Wilcox is going to be the gem of this deal. I doubt he’d have been available in the third round if the college season played out normally. Certainly wouldn’t have been if there was a normal minor league or instructional season for him to show his stuff. He’s going to be special.
I don’t get why people think they are geniuses who put constant winners on the field. Since 2000, they made the playoffs 6/21 times with two of those appearances coming in 2019 and 2020. Before that, the last time they made it was 2013.
I think we need to get off the idea this team can compete over the long haul and that 2021 will be a repeat of 2020.
The Yankees, in comparison made the playoffs 17/21 times over this period.
With a 60mil payroll vs a 200mil payroll they are geniuses
They’ve won 90+ games(or on pace) in 7 of the last 10 seasons, with a payroll that hovers at or below 60M
The Yankees and Red Sox are beating them with payrolls that can surpass 220M. What an even comparison!
What more do you want?
Since the owner took over in 2006 the rays have more wins than 23 other teams with usually the lowest payroll.
Since 2008 they have more wins than 25 other teams during that time.
Count how many times they won the division.
“ Count how many times they won the division.”
So because their division foes spend 3x-4x as much money to win 1 more game, the Rays are a failure? What a stupid stupid line of thinking
“Since 2000, they made the playoffs 6/21 times with two of those appearances coming in 2019 and 2020. Before that, the last time they made it was 2013.
The Yankees, in comparison made the playoffs 17/21 times over this period.”
This is what MLB wants. This is by design. This is the plan.
They want the big market teams in the mix pretty much every season and one or two small market teams to be the Horatio Alger stories needed to pretend baseball is a competitive sport and not a step away from WWE or the Globetrotters.
Yes. The expansion Devil Rays team struggled mightily for their first 10 years of existence. In their past 13 seasons they have the 5th most wins in baseball and 8 90+ win seasons.
This is what the Indians could’ve done after the 2016 WS. Selling Andrew Miller after that monster postseason, for instance.
There was an awesome article on espn a couple years ago on Andrew Friedman trading Delmon Young after his star rookie season. Turning one asset into 3-4 is how it’s done, and the Rays squeezed more out of the Padres with Snell than the Tribe did with Bauer and Clevinger combined.
Well, that’s pretty much nonsense. First, the Tribe did very well with their trades of Bauer and Clevinger, and the idea that you can foretell the future on the haul of young players the Tribe got is ludicrous.
Second, Snell’s talent is every bit as good as the other two AND he had more years of control than either of the Tribe pitchers, plus none of the recent injury history Clevinger had. To the extent that this affected returns, it’s even more impressive what the Tribe got back.
You clearly have an axe to grind; no prospect guru would ever agree with your estimation of the comparative returns.
For sure, we’ll see how it pans out. The difference I’m highlighting is around timing and maximizing trade value. The MO for the Indians, of whom I’m a giant fan and very supportive, has been to sell expensive stars 1-2 years before FA. The Rays have sold with more time on the player clock on multiple occasions, and yes, IMO they did better than the Tribe.
I find the Rays depressing. It’s not that what their front office keeps doing to keep them relevant isn’t impressive. It is. Wildly. And I get why they have to do it. They have no choice.
And I fully expect them to keep contending for wildcards and divisions and even win a pennant here and there.
But the fans want stars. Or at least they want their teams to hold onto some recognizable fan favorite players like the Yankees have done so long with Gardner. Fans don’t want to just cheer for the laundry. They want to know and cheer for the person inside the jersey. The Rays’ degree of turnover just isn’t good for building a marketable brand. A new stadium would help, but it’s not the only answer.
It would help if they weren’t 30 miles from Tampa bay, across a body of water for one
They have a strong TV watching but they kill themselves with their location. Fans don’t show up. But hard to blame them though
Sternberg isn’t a baseball guy, Rays are just part of his portfolio. It’s frustrating when he cries poor but their financials are public record and he pockets 200 mil a year. He enjoys the playoff revenue but doesn’t actually care about winning it.
Please site any source backing up any of what you just said. I follow the Rays very closely and I have never seen anything closely resembling what you’ve posted.
What is known is the Rays have one of the 2 or 3 smallest revenue streams in the sport. Why anyone is surprised they also have one of the smallest 2 or 3 payrolls is beyond me.
I live in St Pete, and basically quoted about a dozen Rays analysts and sports media members. Like I said, it’s public record if you want sources look it up yourself.
Rays were pretty clear on how they feel about snell. Twice through the order and then pulled. He’s a good pitcher, but that doesn’t add up to a top of the rotation arm.
Exactly. While I disagreed with his removal in game six, the fact that Snell put himself in the position of having those stats affect his team’s confidence in him, well, that tells me it isn’t going to get better going forward. To the extent that pitcher and team clash on that, perhaps it makes sense that the Rays moved on from Snell.
I’m certainly not going to question the Rays, nor would I were I a Rays fan. They rarely make large errors. Like the Tribe and the A’s, we’re talking fine teams and fine organizations who can’t afford major mis-steps if they want to compete with the big boys.
Yes it backfired in the World Series but what the world didn’t see is how many times during the regular season dating back to 2018-2019 how things would go when he tried the 3rd time through. Not good
If the Rays trade Cole Wilcox + another prospect to the O’s for John Means or a similar starter, the Rays could win the offseason. Snell is a better pitcher for sure but if you trade a 3yrs of a 6 win player for 4 years of a 4.5 Win player, you split that deal and get Patino in your system and Mejia on your roster for the future. Good value but could haunt them if they get close to a WS again within 3yrs and come up a starter short.
Means is NOT a 4.5 WAR starter, just because he had a 4.8 bWAR 2019 doesn’t mean it’s all that sustainable, a 3 WAR is much more likely and representative of Means talent level. I remember making a starting pitcher depth chart in 2019 and I had Means listed at 7th heading into opening day.
For the Orioles depth chart of course*
Going into 2019 I agree. But he was throwing 89-91 without good secondaries when he was last seen in 2018. Now he’s 93-95 with a much improved slider and change-up. If his last 5 starts of 2020 was him figuring out how to use his new arsenal, I think a 3 win pitcher is his floor.
Even then, if Means is a 3 WAR starter and Snell a 6 WAR starter, Patino and Mejia have to COMBINE for 6 WAR in their TB careers to equal the value of Snell. Maybe they got worse this year but in 2-3 years they may already start to get ahead if they swing a deal for a controllable, cheaper arm of lower qualtity than Snell but still keep them competitive. This is Rays baseball, and it works.
I think they traded him to avoid Tommy John surgery years.
You have to make hard calculations if you’re not a big market team. Smaller markets MUST adhere to the old adage that it’s better to trade a guy one year too early than one year too late. Big markets can more or less ignore such pearls of wisdom.
I think there could be something to this. Not saying he’s damaged goods, but he has started to have a lot of little injuries piling up the last couple of seasons.
“We gave up two of our three best pitchers despite the fact that they were under contract for at or under market value, but I just want to make it clear we’re trying to win!”
Called a payroll crunch buddy, what else are you supposed to do?
With all the prospect assets, they *should* trade for #1 or #2 pitcher controllable for 2-3 years with a below market value contract………wait.
The Rays are aiming for approximately $60 million in total salaries. Snell’s $13 million was nearly 22% of the $60 million total. That’s the equivalent of a $48+ million salary on a team with total salaries of $220 million.
While $13 million is not an overwhelming amount in today’s game, you can see that with Tampa’s low salary base, it’s a huge gamble to tie up that amount in a single player – especially a pitcher.
The Rays gambled and won with Morton, Snell and Kiermier’s oversized salaries in 2020. But they are reluctant to do so again in 2021. Hence, they let Morton walk and sold high on Snell.
I love when people makes sense in the comment forum. Thank you
After losing Snell and Morton, clearly the Rays are not the quality team of last year. Not only did they lose exceptional players but tireless supporting teamates as well! Neander says he will replenish the talent for the Rays to compete for the 2021 World Series and he always does what he says he’s going to do. With clearly the #1 Minor league prospect system and every other MLB team salivating to get quality prospects I believe he can do it! Tall order for sure but I have my popcorn ready to see what the rest of the trading season brings.
Difference between Rays and Pirates, Rays don’t stay down long before competing again. Pirates will give you 3 years of up and 30 years of down
So it’s not like the rest of the AL East teams are running to the forefront. And it’s not like Snell, in the “pillow” years of an ill advised long term deal, was going to go full throttle every time he went to the mound; why should he? He just isn’t that kind of guy; most aren’t. Blake throws his 100 pitches, and starts looking at the bullpen; again, he has no reason not to.
Sure, he gave it his all during the WS; he’s an athlete, athletes are competitive, especially when it’s on the national stage. But everybody whose watched Snell over the years knows that that’s not an every day thing.
Good move for TB; Patino looks solid, Wilcox could be a steal, the two catchers aren’t much, but they have nothing behind the plate. And while NY seems DJ obsessed, and Toronto puts out press releases about who they’re “in on”, and Boston seems confused, the Rays’ chances of an AL East crown may have actually improved.
Rays chances could drop significantly over the next 5-6 weeks.
This move does not increase the Rays’ chances of an AL East crown. At least not in 2021 or 2022. It was more than a fair return for Snell but considering that the Rays are coming off an AL pennant and claim to be trying to repeat, they shouldn’t have traded Snell unless it was for a Shelby Miller-esque heist that makes them better both immediately and for the long-term. This package doesn’t do that.
I don’t believe Snell’s contract was ill-advised. The fact he has three years of control left while still in his 20s is what enabled the Rays to trade him for an attractive package. The Rays purposely signed him to this type of deal with escalating salaries knowing they’d do exactly what they did: trade him as his salary increased, but still having years of control that will make him valuable in a trade. They’ve built this into their model. Or am I misinterpreting your sentence and you’re saying it was Snell who was ill-advised signing his contract as he’d make more money as a free agent?
As for the AL East, I believe the Rays overachieved in the shortened season and they’d have fallen back over the grind of 162-game season. The Yankees will likely have LeMahieu back, and an argument can be made they might be better off letting him leave and directing resources elsewhere. Regardless, they will address their rotation, probably through trades and/or unexpected signings. The Blue Jays will eventually land someone big, and I believe the Red Sox will surprise because they also will fix their rotation enough.
I’ll wait to see what Tampa does. We know their smart and there is going to be a lot of low-cost options out there this offseason and they have a deep system. That said, my early prediction is they have a hard battle coming to finish 3rd in 2021.
I have as much fun following the Rays as I would have seeing my neighbor who makes minimum wage struggle to pay rent.
The Rays goal is not to win a championship. It’s to cut costs and be profitable so the owner makes money. This process requires them to be vaguely competitive but never really pushing hard to win a championship. It’s unlikely they ever will with this approach. They’re a model of efficiency, but they are also an embarrassment to the game, waiting for their revenue-sharing checks to show up in most years (not 2020) while doing nothing to grow the game.
Dumbest comment award***** ding ding ding
“Neander insisted to Topkin and other reporters that the Rays, who won the American League in 2020, still plan to compete for a championship.”
You sure about that? That rotation looks mighty thin behind Tyler Glasnow and the only guy they got in that trade who could be much help in 2021 is Mejia.
Sternberg isn’t a baseball guy, Rays are just part of his portfolio. It’s frustrating when he cries poor but their financials are public record and he pockets 200 mil a year. He enjoys the playoff revenue but doesn’t actually care about winning it.
The most certain thing about the Rays’ rotation is that Ryan Yarborough’s a pretty good 3rd starter…beyond that, it’s all a krap shoot. Glassnow really didn’t show much last year, and with his delivery, it’s obvious he can be ran right out of the ballpark (even if nobody runs much anymore). The rest are all could be-s and what if-s (with the realization of all the injuries).
You can look at the Rays and say, “Ya, if everything breaks their way…”. But you can say that about the other 3 contenders, even Boston. Right now, today, the Rays are in the mix to finish second. But if the Jays or Sox start making moves, it could get ugly.
They lived on their bullpen last year, and it’s not like there’s a bunch of Craig Kimbrell-s out there…lots and lots of iff-s. And the offense is “meh”, and that’s if Arozorena et al are all for real; likely, only a couple are.