Right-hander Mike Soroka has won his arbitration case with the Braves, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reports (Twitter link). Soroka will receive $2.8MM for the 2021 season, as opposed to the $2.1MM that was offered by Atlanta.
Soroka pitched only 13 2/3 innings in 2020 before suffering a season-ending right Achilles tear, though his overall track record through his short career was enough to sway the arbiter in his favor. The 28th overall pick of the 2015 draft, Soroka has a 2.86 ERA and 50.9% grounder rate over 214 innings in the majors, despite a fairly middling-to-below average strikeout rate (19.6K%), a solid but unspectacular 6.3 walk rate, and a fastball that has averaged only 92.5mph at the MLB level.
What the 23-year-old does have, however, is a four-pitch arsenal that he frequently mixes up, and “the strategic means to circumvent opponents” in the words of Fangraphs’ Michael Augustine. Soroka doesn’t allow much hard contact and, especially in the homer-heavy modern game, he does a spectacular job of avoiding the long ball. Since the start of the 2018 season, Soroka has the second-lowest HR/9 (0.63) of any pitcher in baseball with at least 210 innings pitched.
Soroka also earned enough service time over his first three MLB seasons to count as a Super Two player, and so this winter marks the first of four (rather than the usual three) arbitration-eligible seasons for the Canadian right-hander. He just turned 23 last August, so he is on pace to hit free agency as a 27-year-old following the 2024 season. Surely Atlanta had some interest in locking Soroka up to a long-term extension already, so the arbiter’s decision will only increase that desire to get a bit of extra cost certainty since Soroka’s price tag will keep going up over his three remaining arb years. MLBTR’s Matt Swartz projected Soroka for a salary of roughly $1.8-$1.9MM in 2021.
The Braves still have another arbitration hearing to go, as they are awaiting a decision on their case with Dansby Swanson. Atlanta was looking to pay the shortstop $6MM in his second of three arbitration years, while Swanson countered with a $6.7MM figure.
Mike check!
Soroka is a stud. Any team in the MLB would want him in their starting rotation when he’s healthy. He’s proven himself and is the real deal. If Soroka comes back this year and is effective Braves will go deep into the postseason. I fully expect the Braves to win the NL East.
I wonder what Soroka’s representatives know about the arbitration figures that MLBTR doesn’t. MLBTR projected Soroka would receive a maximum of $1.9 million. When the Braves offered a couple hundred thousand above the maximum I thought for sure Soroka would accept and look at it as a $200k gift. Especially coming off a season that was ruined by injury. When he didn’t accept and wanted an additional $700k on top of the $200k above the maximum projection it seemed like he would surely lose. $900k isn’t a lot in MLB money but it is a big difference from $1.9 million. MLBTR projections missed this by a margin of almost 50% of their maximum projection. Either this is just an extreme fluke (which I find doubtful) or their is some aspect or statistic of the arbitration process that took place in Soroka’s case which MLBTR either greatly undervalues or just overlooks all together. I wonder what it is they overlooked in Soroka when they thought he would max out at a figure about 50% less than he actually did. Maybe a statistic or combination of a group thereof which values Soroka that much higher? Any guesses or thoughts from anyone?
When a player and club enter arbitration the outcome is one or the other. You could speculate that if the Braves would have offered 2.3, they would have won. The player won this case because his number came closer to justifying his current value than what the club submitted. As far as MLBTR missing the mark, I for one have always been impressed and thankful for Matt’s work. Also, don’t think for a second that his thoughts and predictions aren’t noticed by those in the business. Because of the 60 game season, thus year has been a crap shoot figuring out a player’s value.
GOOD! He deserves it and honestly, I’m tired of the Braves being overall cheap for such a prestigious franchise. Every penny good players can squeeze out of them, I fully support
I feel he is worth the money, but dont think he should have gotten it considering he hardly pitched this past season.
That’s kinda a ridiculous concept. Look, never side with teams on these type of deals for superstar type players. The guy was a cy young contender. He’s already made the Braves well above the pay raise for this year and last years salary. They can pay him what he deserves
no it’s not. he was a highly touted prospect who proved himself in his single big league season. his second “full season” he went down after only 3 starts, of which he pitched OK at best, but definitely not ace status. Im not hating on the guy, I think he’s a stud and will be for a long time, and Im not “siding” with either side, but just giving him a raise because he is who he is is non sense, why should he get a raise from ~600k to almost 3 mil for missing basically the entire season?
Because he already pitched well enough in his 37 starts to pay not only for the 600k, but brought in more money to cover this and other pay raises he may get during his arbitration process. In 2019 he was 1 slot behind Strasburg in cy young voting. He made somewhere between $18 or $38 mil that year. That gives you some sort of perspective at the lvl of production he is truly at. Yet, because he was injured in a 60 game season you’re gonna suggest that his worth is magically is gone? You would never accept these terms if you earned your company hundreds of millions of dollars. The difference between Soroka and your job is he is handicapped by an outside governing body where as if you don’t get paid, you go get you a job that pays you what you deserve. Just hush. You sound kinda ridiculous
Well obviously he’s worth that money…. That’s not at all the point. The more he gets paid now means his rate will be higher in future years. So it’s kind of a big deal. His situation is weird considering in 2020 nobody pitched much, but he pitched even less than everyone else. I’m guessing it probably helped missing time in a yr when everyone pitched so little anyways.
Eh, you’d have a better case coming off a productive season.
It’s a business.
Braves are a file and trial team. They don’t negotiate, no matter the player, when it comes to arb cases
So people assume that and the writing on the wall suggest you’re right. But truth is, deals are cut, like the Luke Jackson of the world, that I’m sure a little negotiations were done before that. So if they aren’t close, then they file and trial. Unlike other teams, they never try to find that middle ground once they are in it
Thats an extra 800K for that kid, while the Braves just shrugged and moved on
The Braves will throw away 800 K on some washed up player to send to the minors but haggle with the ace of the staff.
Check his career FIP, xFIP and SIERA then call him an ace again, lol dude
Ace and “ace of the staff” are very different. John Means is an “ace of a staff” but a depth piece on the Dodgers or Padres.
he’s an ace
Ridiculous to laugh at that at all. He’s legit, just because you cherry picked some stats to support your argument is kinda outrageous. Plus, he’s the ace of the staff, which is a different meaning. All else being equal (health), he was hands down the best and most consistent pitcher on our staff making him our ace up until his injury. Now… he’s prob still our ace, but Fried is making a heck of a case for it. Y’all forget, Soroka was really high in the cy young rankings not that long ago. You don’t make that unless you are pitching like an ace
If you think Soroka is a depth piece on ANY team then pick another sport to watch because baseball ain’t it for you (and I’m a Braves hater/admirer).
Don’t be a sheep, Mendoza. He didn’t change teams, so he’s in the same ballpark and has the same defense behind him; and outs are outs.
Fielding independent doesn’t matter since he’s playing with the same defense. Park factors don’t matter since he’s playing in the same park. A guy throws 6 shutout innings, it doesn’t matter if he had 18 strikeouts or none, it’s still the same score.
Those numbers are valuable when evaluating whether to sign or trade for a player. Not much else.
He’s not the ace of the staff. It’s arbitration. Don’t hate the playa, hate the game.
Soroka is the Braves’ best starting pitcher. That makes him the ace of the staff.
I agree, all else being equal, he’s our ace. Fried made a good argument last year though. Due to health, I give fried the ace title today. It would be an awesome debate if soroka was healthy.
Fried just took that title from him, along with the rest of the Braves, almost into the WS. Would love to see Soroka take it back, not unlike Maddux, Glavine, Smoltz competing to see who was the best.
bravesfan, Both among the top 15 starters in MLB, at least. I love watching Soroka. A true “pitcher” and not just a thrower. He doesn’t waste a lot of pitches which will help him go deeper into games. It was remarkable how he kept the ball in the ballpark when the balls were juiced in his rookie season. A young man with a plan when he takes to the mound. It’s not all about getting strikeouts. Kids can learn a lot from watching him pitch, even though he’s still young himself.
For now. Longer term, it’s gonna be Ian Anderson. Book it Dano.
I disagree, soroka will be our ace longer term before Anderson. Soroka is the next Maddox, Fried is the next Galvine, Anderson is the next Smoltz! GO BRAVES!
bravesfan
I was saying that a couple years ago , except had folty as the smoltz
Well 700k between the two. But it’s more than that. That’s basically 1.2M extra baseline over the three years at min.
Exactly. The difference in the first arb year represents larger sums in future years.
2.1M*
Flipped those numbers.
Braves leave it all to work itself out, no exceptions. The players know this going in and pre-arb, nothing to see here. The next big thing in the nl nonetheless.
Buehler and Soroka went 24 and 28 in the 2015 June draft. Two teams picking near the bottom of the first round coming away with the draft’s two best pitchers. Depending on how you feel about Bregman, maybe the draft’s two best players.
Even more impressive by Soroka being 3 years younger and not having the benefit of college ball, like Buehler, at Vandy – “Ace U”.
At least my Phils took Cornelius Randolph @ 10.
Yep, now that was the move to make!
Sign an extension? Sure, give me the money you scammed from Albies and Acuna.
What a stupid comment. No one scammed anyone. No one forced them to take the offer. Be smarter.
I just love the arguments from both sides of the spectrum in regards to players salaries. “The “screw the team” side and the “wtf did you just pay that player” side. It happens in every sport. Until the leagues make things more of an equal playing field (minimum floor cap/max ceiling cap), this is just a he said she said argument that no one wins! Arbitration is all it is! This is to help protect both player and team in regards to money. Atlanta isn’t being cheap, they’re being smart with what they know is a top pitcher in baseball with a freak accident injury that they don’t have an actual price tag for that while the player feels he is worth a certain amount. Really nothing to see here imo. Just simple smart business on both sides!
Oh and for players like GIANCARLO STANTON, there needs to be an arbitrator for albatross contracts like his that can protect the image and business side of baseball or any sport for that matter. The player sure did earn the contract at the time (arguably) but should still live up to it mostly or pay a penalty for that. Eliminates the “show me the money” players that then just Twinkie up and fall flat after that. Not good for any league. Should have to earn everything to the last penny before you retire. Plain and simple.
Just let me know if the owners will have to reopen their wallets for guys like DJ who out perform their contracts too
Owners know what they are getting themselves into when they sign players. They are all successful businessmen and know the risk/reward aspect of owning a team.
I get tired of hearing fans cry about billionaire’s money.
I never feel bad for billionaires when they dole out a bad contract, regardless they aren’t losing money
Sororka absolutely deserves it. Smart and crafty old school. Swanson on the other hand isn’t isn’t even worth the 6 he was offered let alone 6.7. So over rated!! Hard to believe he was actually drafted in front of Alex Bergman in their draft year.