Let’s head to Boston for the latest from Chief Baseball Officer Chaim Bloom…
- Bloom thinks the Red Sox should be competitive this season, writes Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com. Designated hitter J.D. Martinez’s return to prominence is a crux of that belief, however, as Bloom notes that they know “how important he is to our lineup and just how much he brings a lineup together when he’s doing what he can do.” Martinez is upper crust when he’s on. He went six consecutive seasons from 2015 to 2019 posting absurd weighted runs created numbers between 136 wRC+ and 170 wRC+. The 33-year-old slugger saw his numbers crater in 2020 to a .213/.291/.389 line worth -1.0 fWAR and 77 wRC+. His isolated power fell to .175 ISO, though a 9.3 percent walk rate and 24.9 percent strikeout rate fell within the range of his career norms. A .259 BABIP was well below his career averages, and while his batted ball profile wasn’t horrendous, it also wasn’t all-world for the first time in his Boston tenure. Martinez needs to be a threat for the rest of the Boston lineup to fall into place.
- Bloom maintains his long-term perspective, hoping to see the next Red Sox core establishing themselves by the end of 2021, writes the Athletic’s Jen McCaffrey. Said Bloom, “That next core that is going to be the center of a sustainable championship contender. To see that core taking shape, both with the players who have been here, who have been part of the core that won the last championship — that are going to continue to be here – and then the players who are going to join that group, whether it’s from within our system, whether it’s guys we’ve acquired, or even guys who might not be here yet. To feel that by the end of the year, we can see that core taking even more shape than we can see right now.”
- There are only so many candidates left that Bloom could be referring to when talking about members of the last Red Sox champ. Ostensibly, that’s Xander Bogaerts and Rafael Devers on the position player side. The former was extended through 2025, and the latter could be next in line, if indeed Bloom views him as a centerpiece offensive contributor. The Red Sox can clear a lot of payroll space after this season, and only Bogaerts and Chris Sale are on the books for 2023, so there’s plenty of runway for Devers to land a long-term extension.
- Red Sox manager Alex Cora is leaning towards entering the season with a three-man position player bench, a strategy buoyed by the recent signings of Enrique Hernandez and Marwin Gonzalez. Michael Chavis is another guy who will move around the diamond a bit. Cora plans on giving Chavis time at third, first, second, and left field. But he wants to see more consistency from the young right-hander at the plate, per Rob Bradford of WEEI sports radio network. Chavis especially needs to mash versus southpaws, though he has just a .257 wOBA against lefties through 158 career plate appearances compared to a .281 wOBA versus same-handed hurlers.
I thought you can only have 13 pitchers on the roster? So don’t you need to have a 4 man bench
you can do whatever you want as long as you stay under the total
You can have as many pitchers as you want but you lose bench players
No they changed it to no more than 13 pitchers, max of 14 in September. I’m assuming the other 2 bench spots would be catchers.
I thought they waived the rule limiting number of pitchers for 2021 as the shortened 2020 and reduced workload for starters means they’ll need more pitchers in 2021.
I’m going to assume that Cora meant a 3 man position player bench, excluding catcher. Add that position, and that’s your 4 man bench.
He meant a 3-man bench including Plawecki, so that would be catcher, Marwin, and probably Arroyo, with Chavis in AAA and Enrique Hernandez on 2B as part of the lineup. That means 14 pitchers.
You are correct, that is the rule, but they suspended that requirement for this season due to the circumstances, so for now they can do a 3 man bench if they so choose.
Actually there is no limit to pitchers in the 2021 season.
mlb.com/press-release/press-release-mlb-announces-…
“The Active Roster limit will revert to 26 (expanding to 28 in September), but the limit on the number of pitchers on the Active Roster at any given time has been waived for this season.“
Hot take: If a rule can’t be upheld because of a difficult situation, the rule was dumb in the first place.
The team that actually develops their prospects to actually pitch, and doesn’t need as many will have the advantage.
Martinez’s line from 20 were impacted by:
1. The pandemic and the changes in training associated by it.
2. His inability to use video/further change in his routine.
3. Short “season” overdramatizes what was really a “long bad slump”.
I’m expecting a bounce back but not having a lefty power hitter like Moreland behind him will hurt. While Moreland was not a “feared name”, he did provide protection which Vasquez doesn’t give.
He should see some protection from Bobby Dalbec this time. Not as seasoned hitter as Moreland but more powerful to help JD.
Sox in my view need to put a lefty behind JDM and others will disagree but I would flip and put CV second and Fevers behind JDM.
J D Martinez fooled Everyone by saying he’s looking at his swing in the video room. I’m sure he spent more than a few moments watching the ball come out of the pitcher’s hand and the different grips. He’s not fooling me. No video in room equals a lot of swings and misses where he looks bad. I do NOT expect a bounce back this year.
Outside of cheating, you don’t lose it that fast.
Hey, the Sox are only 2 pitchers away from being a solid contender.
Of course, their names are Scherzer and deGrom.
Fortunately, the Orioles are only in year #3 of their 15 year plan.
2015-19 is five consecutive seasons, not six.
Outstanding work. Any baseball thoughts?
He’s referring to a mistake in the article, you jackwagon
Wow another genius. Appreciate your baseball take. Thanks.
Gary, I was simply pointing out a mathematical error in a rather straightforward calculation, which should have been caught. Your reply to my comment was worth even less than my initial comment.
I do agree with your take above that a bounce back from Martinez is unlikely. He, Javier Baez, and others have spoken about the detriment effects of not being able to watch video between at-bats. If that’s the case and the rule remains, Martinez is likely to struggle, and it could really impact any extension or FA contract Baez hopes to sign.
gbs42, I make mistakes all the time and I believe others do too. I like giving people slack because I think they see their own mistake and feel terrible about it way before we see it and point it out to them. That may not be the case here with this article because it’s not corrected, but they’re pumping out material and doing the research and I’m the beneficiary of a lot of wonderful information. And hey, at least I gave you a compliment.., then respected your baseball opinion enough to ask for it.
I’m sure Martinez is just trying to get his swing perfected down to the tiniest Little movements and I respect his desire to chart and watch video and go the extra mile to become better, but I think there’s a little more to it. As mentioned above I think he watches the pitcher’s grip and release and tries to guess what’s coming based on delivery and arm angle Etc, even though that’s harder and harder today specially at the major league level where everything looks the same coming from the mound until it’s at the plate. A little video May clue someone like JD Martinez to what’s coming. Just a hunch.
In terms of the three man bench, is Cora including the trash can he brought over from Houston or will it be three man plus the trash can?
Is Devers really the type of player you want to sign long term? Seems to be a bat only player, and while solid, not elite.
He is exactly the type of player you sign to a long term contract, yes. He rakes at the plate. Would you honestly let a guy like that walk if you were a GM? I wouldn’t.
He maybe a fan favorite, but defense is below ave. if the price is right, every player is worth giving a long term contract. What price and years would you be willing to sign him for? Keep in mind CJ Cron just had to take a minor league invite.
What does CJ Cron has to do with Devers?
What does CJ Cron have to do with Devers?
Given his age, the years wouldn’t scare me. I’ll use Bregman as a model there though and say five years.
He reminds me of Ozuna in some ways. Great hitter, but some defensive questions. Devers is younger, however.
Ideally, I’d like to get him for 5yrs/80m. I’m not entirely sure he’d bite on that, and I’d be comfortable going 5yrs/90m on him. That’d probably be my ceiling.
Where would you go?
I think they are waiting to see how he performs under Cora this time around. If Cora can help him furthermore, they probably will be locking him down for several years.
Good call. I agree.
Would they be locking him down as a 3B who makes 24 errors a year or will they be locking him down as a DH? If it’s their future 3B, I’d pass and never have a second thought about it. If it’s as their long term DH, I’d make the contract long enough to get him to his mid prime years. The kid can hit. He simply can’t play defense which defines him as a DH based on skill set.
Devers’ best season was also the year of the juiced ball. As much as I love the kid, his defense makes me want to see another half season at least before locking him up unless he takes a team friendly deal.
belongsinthehall – Completely agree. In fact, if you look at the impact of the juice in the baseball as the single greatest correlation to home runs in the history of the game you’ll understand why players who came on the scene beginning in 2016 have done so well hitting home runs.
In the history of the game the most juiced balls have occurred in:
1 – 2020 (shorten season) – 1.28 HIGHEST EVER JUICE FACTOR
2 – 2019 – 1.26
3 – 2017 – 1.26
4 – 2000 – 1.17
5 – 2016 – 1.16
6 – 2018 – 1.15
7 – 1999 – 1.14
8 – 2004 – 1.12
9 – 2001 – 1.12
10 – 2006 – 1.11
Since 2016 the juice in the ball has accounted for 5 of the top 6 juice levels of all time. Think about that when comparing the monster years that new players are putting up since 2016 compared to years ago.
Since 1871 the juice factor has virtually dictated the number of home runs in the game of baseball. Some baseball experts have dubbed the dramatic drops in hitting as dead ball eras. The 1920s, 1942 to 1945, 1963 to 1968 and most recently 2010 to 2014.
Each of these dead ball eras impacted home runs and were caused by many different things happening in the world or baseball. The 1942 period was due to issues with the material that was used to construct the baseball. It was war time and one of the materials used was in shortage so baseball manufacturers improvised and lessened the liveliness of the ball. In 1963 the strike zone expanded and some say HRs were impacted by the change while others go back to the make-up of the baseball changing. I’m sure both had some impact on the dramatic drop in HRs but the consistency of umpiring suggests that the overall drop was more from the ball than the strike zone. The most recent dead ball era in 2010 can’t be explained by anything other than the ball. It was baffling how after a 15 years of the juice level above 1.0 it dropped from 1.04 in 2009 to 0.95 in 2010. To put that in perspective, that’s the same juice factor that existed in 1961 when Maris beat Ruth’s record. That shows how far the juice had dropped since the so called steroid era (which happened thanks to the baseball not the steroids).
Anyway, with the juice up 10 to 20 percent since Bond’s time you’d think there would be more statistical outliers with respect to home runs. Since there aren’t it suggests to me that the modern player is not as good as the players of the 1990s. There are fewer exceptional players and more overall home run hitters than the 1990s.
Devers has ridden a tide of the highest juice rates in history to be the offensive powerhouse that he is today. Will the lessening of the juice in the ball destroy his numbers? Hard to say. Will the lessening of the juice in the ball impact the CBA and the money paid players in the future? I think it will.
If you look at the careers of Bonds and Hank Aaron and tie them to the juice you can see the huge impact it had on both of them. Hank came in during the hay day of the live ball of the 50s so his numbers were high like players today, then after the dead ball era of 1962 hit his numbers tailed off and everyone assumed it was age but it was really the juice level dropping.
Bonds, experienced just the opposite. He arrives in the dead ball era prior to 1994 and doesn’t have big HR seasons but still wins two MVPs then he takes advantage of the new highly juiced ball introduced in 1994 and he goes on an incredible tear. His HR staying power had nothing to do with steroids, it had everything to do with the juice in the ball. Will we be talking about guys like Acuna and Tatis in 20 years and saying the less lively ball really impacted their careers and the huge contracts were mistakes or will there be no impact from the less lively ball? Should be fun to see what happens, especially with a CBA on the horizon.
Sorry but I have made a typo. The 2019 HRS/GAME was actually 1.39 and represents the highest juice factor in history. 2020 is second with a 1.28.
Compare that to the 0.37 juice factor when Ruth hit 60 HRs and it becomes very easy to say who the greatest HR hitter of all time was. Aaron benefited from the juice in the ball from 1950 to 1962, Bonds benefited from the juice in the ball from 1994 until he retired and Ruth never saw a season with a juice factor greater than 0.63 yet still hit 714 home runs.
J.D. makes the offense go so they need him to get back to some kind of decent form.
Agree totally. I think the best way to do that is with him batting 3rd behind Bogey and Devers. If Verdugo hits behind him he’ll get the protection that Vazquez hasn’t provided since the idiot manager moved JD from the 3 hole during his first tenure.
JD won’t have a good year in the 4 hole with Vazquez behind him. Maybe Dalbec can have a break out year and hit behind him. That’s another possible way for JD to have success. The in game video watching will be back in 2021 so that should help..