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J.D. Martinez

Dodgers Designate Jake Reed For Assignment

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The Dodgers have designated reliever Jake Reed for assignment. The move clears a spot on the 40-man roster for designated hitter J.D. Martinez, who has officially signed his one-year, $10MM contract.

It’s another trip to DFA limbo for Reed, something with which he’s become unfortunately familiar. The right-hander has bounced around the league quite a bit in recent months, continuing to attract interest from various clubs at the back of the 40-man roster. Since July, Reed has gone from the Mets to the Dodgers to the Orioles to the Red Sox and back to L.A. via waivers. It’s possible he now changes uniforms again, as he’ll be traded or waived within the next week.

A low-slot righty, Reed has pitched in the majors in each of the last two years. He’s split that time with the Dodgers, Mets and Orioles, working to a cumulative 5.74 ERA through 26 2/3 innings. He has a below-average 19.2% strikeout percentage and 39.8% grounder rate with a roughly average 8.3% walk percentage in that time.

The University of Oregon product has had a better go in the minor leagues. He’s logged time at the Triple-A level in six different years, putting up a 3.84 ERA through 215 2/3 frames with a solid 25.6% strikeout rate at the top minor league level. It was a similar story this past season, with Reed posting a 3.09 ERA and a 26:8 strikeout-to-walk ratio across 20 Triple-A appearances between three organizations.

That capable track record at the upper levels has continued to catch the attention of clubs with room at the back of the roster. The 30-year-old still has a minor league option year remaining, so any team that keeps him on the 40-man  could bounce him between the majors and Triple-A for another season.

Dodgers Sign J.D. Martinez

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The Dodgers have agreed to a one-year contract with J.D. Martinez, FanSided’s Robert Murray reports (Twitter link), pending a physical.  The New York Post’s Jon Heyman reports that Martinez will receive $10MM.  Martinez is represented by the Boras Corporation.

There hasn’t been much public buzz about Martinez’s trip through free agency, as just earlier today, another Heyman report about the Red Sox possibly having interest in re-signing the veteran slugger marked the first team linked to Martinez since he hit the open market.  While Martinez didn’t have many known suitors, the Dodgers were operating quietly, as ESPN’s Jeff Passan tweets that L.A. “targeted Martinez early in free agency.”  According to The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya, the Dodgers also had interest in Martinez prior to last summer’s trade deadline.

Martinez will now end up in Los Angeles after all, and be reunited with a few familiar faces.  Former Red Sox teammate Mookie Betts is now a fixture at Dodger Stadium, of course, and Martinez has a long history with Dodgers hitting coach Robert Van Scoyoc.  It was Martinez’s work with Van Scoyoc in the 2013-14 offseason that helped get his career on track, and turned Martinez into one of baseball’s better hitters of the last decade.

Since those first fateful sessions with Van Scoyoc and Craig Wallenbrock, Martinez has hit .295/.362/.547 with 258 homers over 4916 plate appearances with the Tigers, Diamondbacks, and Red Sox.  That production led to five All-Star appearances, three Silver Slugger Awards, a key role on Boston’s 2018 World Series championship team, and one big free agent payday in the form of Martinez’s five-year, $110MM contract with the Red Sox in the 2017-18 offseason.

The 2020 season was something of an outlier for Martinez, as he struggled badly in the shortened season and was open with how the COVID-19 dugout protocols interrupted his usual routine.  With that year perhaps simply a writeoff due to unusual circumstances, 2022 marked the first sign of decline in Martinez’s production, even if his 119 wRC+ over 596 PA was still solidly above the league average.  Martinez still hit .274/.341/.448, but his homer total (16), Isolated Power figure (.174) and slugging percentage were all his lowest in a regulation-sized season since 2013.  In addition, Martinez’s hard-hit percentage dropped off sharply from his career norms, even if his 41.7% total was still in the 60th percentile of all batters.

On paper, a move from Fenway Park to Dodger Stadium isn’t ideal for a player looking to regain his power stroke.  However, the change of scenery and a reunion with Van Scoyoc makes Martinez into a very interesting bounce-back candidate for 2023.  Even if he “only” has another season in the neighborhood of 119 wRC+, the Dodgers will happily take that kind of offensive upgrade within a lineup that has already lost Trea Turner and Cody Bellinger to free agency.

2022 marked the first season that Martinez played exclusively as a designated hitter, and that will surely be his primary role in Los Angeles even if he does pick up the glove for an occasional appearance as a corner outfielder.  Martinez doesn’t bring the defensive versatility that the Dodgers usually prefer, but the club has enough other versatile players that the overall roster flexibility won’t be much hurt by Martinez getting the bulk of DH at-bats. Max Muncy will now mostly toggle between second and third base, with Chris Taylor also capable of playing either position and prospect Miguel Vargas in line for more playing time at third base.  Gavin Lux, meanwhile, is slated to move from second base to replace Turner as the everyday shortstop.

The addition of Martinez creates an obvious question about whether or not free agent Justin Turner has played his last game in Dodger blue.  Heyman tweets that the Dodgers still have interest in Turner, who has also drawn interest from such teams as the Marlins and Diamondbacks this winter.  If Turner was re-signed, L.A. could slot Turner in at third base, moving Muncy to second base and keeping Taylor primarily as an outfielder.  Vargas would be the odd man out in this scenario, though the Dodgers may prefer to either bring him along slowly, or rely on more experienced players as the club chases another World Series ring.

Of course, there has also been a sense that the Dodgers are willing to lean more heavily than usual on Vargas and other up-and-comers in 2023, given how the team might be looking to duck under the $233MM Competitive Balance Tax threshold.  Martinez’s $10MM salary bumps the Dodgers’ tax number to roughly $210.3MM, as per Roster Resource.  It still leaves L.A. with more room to spend, but Trevor Bauer’s appeal of his two-year suspension looms large, as an arbiter is expected to rule on the appeal at some point before the end of January.  If the Dodgers have to end up paying some or all of the two years’ worth of salary wiped out by Bauer’s suspension, it could put them near or over the CBT line yet again.

To this end, Martinez’s contract is relatively inexpensive enough that it isn’t necessarily a hint in either direction about how the Dodgers might feel the arbiter will rule.  With that appeal still an X-factor for the remainder of the Dodgers’ winter business, they might’ve felt the investment in Martinez was still worth making, given his appeal and comeback potential.

The one-year length is also somewhat notable, as MLBTR projected Martinez for a two-year, $30MM pact.  It could be that Martinez accepted the shorter deal in order to play for a contender and to reunite with Betts and Van Scoyoc, or he and agent Scott Boras could view this as something of a pillow contract.  If and when Martinez does rebound from his 2022 season, it would put Martinez in line for a larger multi-year pact next winter, even as he’s entering his age-36 season.  The Dodgers have yet to ink a player to a multi-year deal this winter, as Martinez, Noah Syndergaard, Shelby Miller, and the re-signed Clayton Kershaw are only signed through the 2023 campaign.

Red Sox Have Interest In J.D. Martinez Reunion

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The Red Sox are among the teams showing interest in free agent designated hitter J.D. Martinez, according to Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Martinez is a free agent after spending the past five seasons in Boston. The Red Sox opted not to offer him a qualifying offer at the end of the season.

The Red Sox don’t have a clear DH locked in for 2023, but there have been some concerns raised over the outfield defense of new signing Masataka Yoshida, and he has seemed like someone who could at least spend a decent chunk of time at the spot when he’s manning left-field. Martinez did not make a single outfield appearance in 2022, so bringing him back would be a vote of confidence in Yoshida’s ability to handle left on a day-to-day basis.

Martinez, 35, slashed .274/.341/.448 with 16 home runs over 596 plate appearances in 2022. While that was a bit of a drop from his best years, it was still good for a wRC+ of 119, or 19 percent better than league average. A year prior, Martinez hit .286/.349/.518 with 28 home runs and 43 doubles. While his strikeout and walk numbers remained steady between ’21 and ’22, his HardHit% dropped almost eight percentage points.

Originally developed by the Astros, Martinez spent three unsuccessful big league seasons in Houston before being released ahead of the 2014 season. He signed on with Detroit, and his career took off, as Martinez slashed a combined .300/.361/.551 with 99 home runs over three-and-a-half seasons with the Tigers. With the Tigers out of contention and Martinez in his walk year, they flipped him to the Diamondbacks at the 2017 deadline, and Martinez hit a staggering 29 home runs in 62 matches for Arizona, setting himself for a huge payday in free agency.

It was a lengthy free agency as Martinez batted away concerns over a foot injury the previous year, but in late February of 2018 Martinez signed with the Red Sox on a five-year, $110MM deal. Over the next five years in Boston, Martinez would mash 130 home runs and compile a .292/.363/.526 line. He’d also earn MVP votes in two of those seasons and go to the All Star game four times.

While Martinez’ career numbers speak for themselves, they have slowed down a touch as he’s aged, and his restriction to the DH spot makes his market hard to predict. Any number of teams, including the Red Sox, could do with a bat like Martinez’, but many teams prefer to keep the DH spot more open to cycle players through. As such, there’s not been a ton of reported interest in the veteran slugger. MLBTR predicted a two-year, $30MM for Martinez, and while the Red Sox are now the only team with reported interest, teams such as the Rays, Orioles, Twins, among others, could all have make sense as speculative fits.

Red Sox Not Planning To Extend A Qualifying Offer To J.D. Martinez

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The Red Sox are not planning to extend a qualifying offer to veteran slugger J.D. Martinez, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Heyman’s report comes at what may be the beginning of an offseason of transition in Boston. With Xander Bogaerts’ opt-out clause looming and extension talks with Rafael Devers having yet to yield any results, Martinez could be one of multiple all-stars whose time in Boston may soon come to an end.

Martinez, age 35, is coming off of his fifth season with Boston, during which he played 139 games and slashed .274/.341/.448. Though Martinez rated as a well above average offensive player by wRC+ (119), his 16 2022 home runs are his fewest in a season since 2013. 2022 was also the first season in Martinez’s career that the five-time all-star did not log a single inning at a defensive position, as Alex Cora used him exclusively as a designated hitter. Martinez ought to have no problem finding employment next season, however. He has been one of the most consistent and productive hitters over the last decade, averaging 26 home runs and a .293 average since 2013.

MLBTR ranks Martinez as the best full-time DH available this offseason. He will headline a DH-class that includes other options such as Matt Carpenter and Nelson Cruz. Full-time DH’s have reduced earning power compared to other free agents due to their limited defense. The market for this player prototype has the potential to appeal any club looking for a discounted injection of offense without shuffling their defensive alignment. Assured production is paramount when a team decides to commit substantial resources to an offense-only player. Out of the three, Martinez is by far the surest bet. The contrast of Carpenter’s herculean summer with the Yankees and his paltry 2019-2021 leaves uncertainty about in his ability to produce going forward. Carpenter does have the ability to play some defense, however, having lined up at all four corner positions in 2022. Cruz looked ageless until last season, when he experienced substantial drops in hard-contact rate and exit velocity in the midst of his worst offensive season ever as a big league regular.

As the market’s best full-time DH, there ought to be plenty of teams looking to add some thump to their lineup that will consider signing Martinez. Logical suitors may theoretically include the Diamondbacks, who are looking for a right-handed bat, per Heyman, and the Marlins, who plan to address their weak offense this offseason. That being said, any team that may be inclined to add a full-time DH figures to have interest in Martinez on a one or two-year deal with an AAV below the qualifying offer worth $19.65 MM.

It is also possible that Martinez winds up back with Boston, despite the fact that the Red Sox are not planning to extend him a qualifying offer. Chaim Bloom’s decision to not tie draft pick compensation to Martinez’s free agency is likely to be rooted in the Sox’ evaluation of what Martinez could be worth in 2023, as opposed to whether or not they he would like to keep him on Boston’s roster. Martinez has been well worth the 5-year, $110MM deal he signed with the Red Sox in the 2017-2018 offseason and has given every indication that he can still be a productive DH. If Martinez does not receive a qualifying offer, it would indicate Bloom’s unwillingness to pay a full-time DH, albeit a productive one, a salary of $19.65 MM. It could also signify Bloom’s desire to provide consistent opportunity for some of Boston’s core of young first baseman/DH types, like Bobby Dalbec and Triston Casas. They also have Eric Hosmer on the roster, though it’s unclear how committed they are to him. With the Padres paying down the majority of his contract, Boston is only on the hook for the league minimum salary and could cut ties if they found options they liked better.

In a postgame interview with NESN’s Jahmai Webster on October 6, Martinez expressed gratitude to his teammates and to Boston fans for their support, adding that he’ll “see what happens” in free agency (via Twitter). If he does wind up back with the Red Sox, it will be interesting to see how close Martinez’s new salary will come to the $19.65 MM figure that the Boston appears unlikely to offer him.

Forecasting The 2022-23 Qualifying Offers: Position Players

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The qualifying offer has impacted the free agent market for the last 10 offseasons, but it wasn’t clear if there would be an eleventh as Major League Baseball and the MLB Players Association engaged in labor talks last winter.  When the lockout was over and the new collective bargaining agreement was finally settled, one sticking point remained — the implementation of an international player draft.  If the union agreed to this draft, the league would have agreed to scrap the qualifying offer system altogether.

However, July’s deadline for a decision on an international draft came and went without any new agreement, and thus the status quo of the QO will remain for the 2022-23 free agent class.  As such, we can now look ahead and predict which players will or could receive qualifying offers from their teams at the end of the season.

A quick refresher on the QO rules.  The qualifying offer is a one-year contract with a salary figure determined by averaging the top 125 salaries of all MLB players.  Last year’s figure was $18.4MM, and it’s safe to estimate that this winter’s QO will be worth somewhere in the range of $18-19MM.  Any free agent is eligible to be issued a qualifying offer unless a) they have received one in past trips to free agency, or b) they haven’t spent the entire 2022 season with their current organization.  For instance, the Padres can’t issue Josh Bell a qualifying offer because Bell was only acquired at the trade deadline.

If a player accepts the qualifying offer, he returns to his current team on that one-year deal in the $18MM-$19MM range.  (The player can also negotiate a longer-term extension with his team after accepting that QO, as Jose Abreu did with the White Sox in November 2019.)  While some free agents have indeed taken the qualifying offer, the large majority reject the deal in search of a richer and lengthier contract.  If a player rejects a QO and signs elsewhere, their new team must give up at least one draft pick and possibly some international draft pool money, while their former team will get a compensatory draft pick in return.

With several prominent names in this year’s free agent market eligible for the QO, let’s look at some of the candidates, starting with position players.

Easy Calls: Nolan Arenado (Cardinals), Xander Bogaerts (Red Sox), Willson Contreras (Cubs), Aaron Judge (Yankees), Brandon Nimmo (Mets), Dansby Swanson (Braves), Trea Turner (Dodgers)

There isn’t much drama in any of these decisions, as these players are all obvious candidates to be issued qualifying offers that will be rejected.  Nimmo is perhaps the only name on this list that rates as a bit of a surprise, yet he has quietly posted strong numbers over his seven seasons in New York, including a quality 2022 campaign.  Most importantly, Nimmo has also stayed healthy, playing in 104 of the Mets’ 113 games — this is already the second-most games played for Nimmo in any season of what has been an injury-plagued career.

Arenado and Bogaerts aren’t guaranteed to be free agents, as either could pass on exercising opt-out clauses in their current deals.  However, Bogaerts is a virtual lock to opt out, and Arenado is having such a great season that he should be able to comfortably top the $144MM he is owed through from 2023-27.  Since Arenado has been vocal about how much he likes playing for the Cardinals, an extension is certainly possible before Arenado even hits the open market, with the Cards perhaps tacking another guaranteed year and more money onto the deal to prevent the third baseman from opting out.

Easy Contract-Option Calls: Tim Anderson (White Sox)

The White Sox hold club options on Anderson’s services for both the 2023 and 2024 seasons, with next year’s option being worth $12.5MM (with a $1MM buyout).  Though he could technically be a free agent, there is zero doubt the Sox will exercise Anderson’s 2023 option, so a qualifying offer is a moot point.

Borderline Cases: Mitch Haniger (Mariners), J.D. Martinez (Red Sox), Jurickson Profar (Padres), Anthony Rizzo (Yankees)

Rizzo’s two-year, $32MM free agent deal with the Yankees includes an opt-out clause after this season, and it would seem like the first baseman (who just turned 33 earlier this week) will indeed test the open market again.  Rizzo’s first full season in the Bronx has seen him hit .224/.342/.504 with 27 home runs, with the fifth-best wRC+ (139) of his distinguished career.  Rizzo’s age, home/road splits, and first base-only status will limit his market to some extent, and draft-pick compensation via the qualifying offer will also make other teams wary.  But, Rizzo was still able to land a multi-year pact last winter coming off a lesser platform year, so he should be able to match or better that pact again.  Rizzo has quickly become a clubhouse and fan favorite in New York, so this could be another situation where a player is convinced to pass on an opt-out due to a contract extension.

Haniger has appeared in only 15 games this season, due to both a high ankle sprain that required a trip to the 60-day injured list, as well as a two-week stint on the COVID-related injury list in April.  He has been on a tear since returning to action last week, but if his numbers settle down, then it seems likely that Seattle won’t issue a qualifying offer.  However, if Haniger continues to mash over the remainder of the season and returns to his 2021 form, the Mariners face an interesting decision.

A late-season hot streak could do enough for Haniger’s market that he might reject a qualifying offer, as since Haniger turns 32 in December, this could be his best shot at a lucrative multi-year deal.  On the flip side, he could still choose to accept the QO, knowing that his checkered injury history could work against him in free agency — Haniger can bank the one-year QO payday and then hope for a full and healthy 2023 season as a better platform for that longer-term deal.  From the Mariners’ perspective, paying around $19MM for Haniger could be seen as a worthwhile investment, especially since the team doesn’t know what to expect from Kyle Lewis and Jarred Kelenic heading into 2023.

Martinez turns 35 on August 21 and is still posting above-average (120 wRC+) numbers, hitting .281/.346/.443 with nine home runs over 422 plate appearances.  That still represents a significant power dropoff from Martinez’s norms, and he has been a DH-only player this season.  Even with the looming threat of losing Bogaerts from the Red Sox lineup, Boston might still pass on issuing a QO to Martinez out a concern that he might accept, since chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom seems to be looking for more flexibility with both the roster and the payroll.

Profar is another less-likely candidate to receive a qualifying offer, even if he is also playing well.  Between good offensive (119 wRC+, 12 homers, .254/.345/.416 over 467 PA) and defensive (+5 Defensive Runs Saved, +1.8 UZR/150 in left field) numbers, Profar has been a 2.8 fWAR player in 107 games with San Diego this season, a nice bounce-back from an underwhelming 2021.  With a player option attached to his 2023 services, Profar can either earn $7.5MM next season or take the $1MM buyout and test the open market.

At the very least, it would seem like Profar will indeed opt out and try to secure a longer-term contract, but it would seem like a reach if the Padres issued a qualifying offer.  Profar will only be 30 on Opening Day, so he could accept the QO to lock in that one-year payday, and then be on track to test the market again at age 31.  Considering the Padres might exceed the luxury tax threshold for the second straight year and will face a lot of free agent decisions this winter, they probably won’t want to risk Profar being bumped into the $19MM salary range.  Profar could be another extension candidate, given president of baseball operations A.J. Preller’s belief in Profar’s ability dating back to their days in the Rangers organization.

Latest On Red Sox’ Deadline Plans

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As the calendar flipped from June to July, the Red Sox were sitting on a record of 43-33 and holding onto an American League Wild Card spot. However, this has been a disastrous month for them, in which they went 8-19. Now their record is 51-52, placing them 3 1/2 games behind the Rays for the final playoff spot, with three teams in between.

Due to that slide, there’s been recent chatter about the club giving consideration to trading impending free agents such as J.D. Martinez, Christian Vazquez and Nathan Eovaldi. With less than 48 hours remaining until the trade deadline, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe reports that financial considerations will be a factor in discussions between the Red Sox and other teams. According to Speier, the front office will think about ducking under the luxury tax but will not be required to do so. It’s even possible that they could take on additional salary commitments if it meant adding more prospect talent to the system.

The Red Sox have paid the luxury tax in the past but have been trying to run lower payrolls in recent years. Most famously, or infamously, Boston traded away Mookie Betts and David Price as a means of shedding salary. However, they did some aggressive spending this past winter, most notably the six-year, $140MM contract given to Trevor Story, putting them back over the CBT line for this year. Jason Martinez of Roster Resource estimates their current CBT number is just over $238MM, placing them $8MM beyond the lowest $230MM threshold. (Speier says they are about $7MM over the line.) Since luxury tax status isn’t determined until the offseason, the Sox could still lower their CBT number and avoid all penalties.

Trading Martinez alone would go most of the way, or perhaps all of the way, to getting Boston back under the line. He’s making a salary of just over $19MM this year, but a player’s contribution to the luxury tax calculation is based on the average annual value of the player’s entire contract. Since his deal was for $110MM over five years, it comes with an AAV and CBT hit of $22MM this year. At the time of the trade deadline, there will be just over a third of the season remaining, meaning the Red Sox can chop about $7.5MM off of their luxury tax calculation if they find another team to take on the entirety of the remainder of the Martinez contract. Eovaldi and Vazquez have lower AAVs of $17MM and $7MM, respectively. That means an Eovaldi trade could subtract about $5.8MM from the ledger and about $2.4MM in the case of Vazquez. If the Boston brass decide they need to get under the line, it’s certainly something they can achieve by moving some combination of this trio.

This approach will appeal to certain teams but not others, of course. Teams with lower payrolls could potentially prefer to pay a higher prospect cost in order to take on less salary, but there are also teams in the opposite camp. For example, the Mets are reportedly looking to buy at the deadline but would rather take on money than give up prospects.

However, the Red Sox are also apparently willing to go in another direction, giving thought to using some financial heft to absorb some salary as a means of bolstering their system. The Red Sox have a large number of contracts coming off the books this year, in addition to those already mentioned. Enrique Hernandez, Michael Wacha, Rich Hill, Matt Strahm and Kevin Plawecki are set to reach the open market as well. Furthermore, option decisions could subtract even more money from the 2023 payroll, most notably that owed to Xander Bogaerts, who is widely expected to opt out of his contract in a few months. That gives the Red Sox a CBT number of just under $108MM for next season, according to Jason Martinez. That doesn’t include raises for arbitration eligible players, including Rafael Devers, but it does include Bogaerts. If Bogaerts is indeed subtracted from the ledger, the arbitration players won’t raise that number by much. If Boston is willing to inflate their luxury tax payment this year, they could be in good position to “reset” their CBT status next year. (There are escalating penalties for paying the luxury tax in consecutive seasons, meaning that even the teams with the highest payrolls often find ways to periodically avoid the tax in order to avoid such a scenario.)

All in all, the Red Sox are shaping up to be one of the most interesting teams to watch as we approach the trade deadline, which is at 5pm on August 2. Since they are on a precipice between the contenders and the rebuilders, they might try to walk a line between the two customary “buying” and “selling” strategies. One thing that seems to be off the table, however, is a full-scale rebuild that sees the team strip things down in a serious way. Bogaerts recently said that he was told that he will not be traded, and now Devers has said the same, per Rob Bradford of WEEI. Bradford also relays, however, that there have been no recent contract talks with Bogaerts and the club, meaning it’s still quite possible he opts out at the end of the year, with the club sure to extend him a qualifying offer at that time. Speier also relays word from Vazquez, who also has not had any recent talks about a new contract. Though there are still many possible permutations, it seems that Boston’s roster is headed for a significant shakeup, either this week or in the offseason or both.

Red Sox Notes: Eovaldi, Vazquez, Martinez, Mets, Vientos

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As the Red Sox continue to struggle, it seems increasingly likely that the team will be selling in some capacity at the trade deadline, even if the likes of Xander Bogaerts and Rafael Devers aren’t going anywhere.  Reports from earlier this week suggested that the Sox were already open to offers for J.D. Martinez, and The Boston Globe’s Alex Speier (Twitter links) hears from a National League evaluator that catcher Christian Vazquez could also be available.  The Sox seem to be “listening on veterans” in general, The New York Post’s Jon Heyman tweets.

Both Martinez and Vazquez are free agents after the year, so it would seem natural that the Red Sox would first look to move these shorter-term players with the deadline looming.  Other pending free agents include Jackie Bradley Jr. (whose mutual option for 2023 is likely to be declined), several injured players like Rich Hill, Michael Wacha, Enrique Hernandez, and Matt Strahm, plus the potential biggest trade chip of starter Nathan Eovaldi.

However, Speier writes that Boston “doesn’t seem motivated to deal Eovaldi, seeing him as part of any push to contend” into August, if the Red Sox can shake out of their slump.  That said, if the Luis Castillo trade now becomes “an accelerant to the rest of the pitching market,” it is worth wondering if the Sox might see an opportunity to move Eovaldi for a big return.

Of note, the Mets had a scout at last night’s Red Sox game, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports.  The Mets are known to be looking at catching and lineup upgrades, so Vazquez and Martinez would each make sense — Martinez in particular could help the Mets solve their season-long lack of production at the DH spot.  As to what New York could offer in return, Rosenthal notes that the Sox had a past interest in Dominic Smith, who would fit the team’s desire to land big leaguers back in trades (adding to the idea that Boston is still hoping to make a late playoff run).

A player on the cusp of the majors could also fit Boston’s model, with SNY’s Andy Martino suggesting that Mets infield prospect Mark Vientos could be of interest in trade talks.  In fact, Martino reports that the Mets and Red Sox once “seriously discussed” a deal that would’ve sent Vazquez to Queens in exchange for a prospect package that included Vientos.  The exact timing of these specific talks involving Vientos isn’t known, but the Mets reportedly looked into Vazquez prior to the 2020 trade deadline.

Vientos was a second-round pick for the Mets in the 2017 draft, and the 22-year-old has an impressive 21 home runs and a .263/.351/.516 slash line over 348 plate appearances at Triple-A Syracuse.  Baseball America ranks Vientos as the fourth-best prospect in New York’s farm system, praising his 60-grade power and throwing arm and noting that he has a chance to stick at third base, even if some evaluators think a move to first base will eventually be necessary.

For all of Vientos’ potential, he is generally seen as a step below the true upper tier of Mets prospects, so New York could perhaps be more apt to move him for immediate help (even for a rental like Martinez or Vazquez) given how aggressively the Mets are chasing a World Series title this year.  It can’t be ruled out that some kind of multi-player agreement could be struck, with both Martinez and Vazquez heading to Queens in exchange for a better prospect return.

Red Sox Reportedly Listening To Offers For J.D. Martinez

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As the Red Sox continue to flounder through the month of July, there are increasing levels of speculation that Boston could sell off some short-term veterans — even if they continue to opportunistically look to add longer-term pieces who’ll help in 2023 and beyond. To that end, ESPN’s Buster Olney said on today’s Baseball Tonight podcast that designated hitter J.D. Martinez “is out in the trade market.” Boston was recently swept by the division-rival Blue Jays, dropping them to 17 games back in the AL East and three back in the Wild Card chase.

The 34-year-old Martinez (35 next month) would immediately become one of the best bets on the market if the Sox indeed do intend to trade him within the next week. Fresh off his fifth career All-Star appearance, Martinez remains a standout bat, hitting .302/.368/.481 with nine homers on the season. He may not be the 45-homer threat he was at his 2017-18 peak, but Martinez’s 8.7% walk rate and 23.6% strikeout rate are both right in line with his career levels, and he’s been 36% better than league-average at the plate by measure of wRC+.

Martinez is in the final season of a frontloaded five-year, $110MM contract that calls for a $19.375MM salary for the current season. He’s still owed about $7.55MM of that salary between now and season’s end, as of this writing, but for a hitter of his caliber it’s a generally reasonable rate of pay.

The extent to which the Red Sox are attempting to move Martinez isn’t yet known. Chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom typically takes an open-minded approach to the trade deadline and offseason alike, so it’s certainly feasible that he’s simply entertaining offers from other clubs. At the same time, if the Sox have determined that they don’t want to make a qualifying offer to Martinez at what will likely be a comparable rate to his current salary, they could more aggressively contact other clubs and try to initiate negotiations themselves.

Making Martinez available would obviously bring about further questions regarding the Sox’ roster. If they’re willing to move Martinez, it stands to reason that other clubs would inquire about the team’s other slate of pending free agents, at the very least. Nathan Eovaldi would quickly become the top name on the rental market for starting pitchers, and the Sox also have catcher Christian Vazquez, starters Michael Wacha and Rich Hill, utilityman Enrique Hernandez and reliever Matt Strahm set to reach free agency this winter.

Wacha, Hill, Strahm and Hernandez are all on the injured list at the moment, but all four are progressing toward returns (Twitter link via MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo). Hill is slated for a rehab assignment beginning tomorrow, while Wacha recently threw a simulated game. Strahm is only on the IL due to a wrist contusion (the All-Star break likely contributed to the factor to place him on the IL at all). Hernandez will be swinging a bat by the end of the week.

Of course, those players may not be considered quite as “easy” to replace as Martinez. While there’s no Martinez-level bat readily available to take his place, the Sox do have top prospect Triston Casas in Triple-A. Bobby Dalbec is playing third base right now with Rafael Devers on the injured list but could get a look at DH — or the Sox could simply use the designated hitter slot as a means of rotation their regulars and keeping them fresh down the stretch.

While a brief rental of a designated hitter might not generally be expected to produce a significant return, it at least bears mentioning that the Twins were able to pry minor league right-handers Joe Ryan and Drew Strotman from the Rays in last summer’s Nelson Cruz trade. Ryan, then an upper-level starter who’d recently pitched for Team USA in the Olympics, quickly found his way to the big leagues and has been Minnesota’s best starter since last September’s debut. That’ll likely be seen as the gold standard for rental trades of this nature for some time, however, and it’s not necessarily reasonable to expect the Red Sox — or any team — to pull off a return of that quality in exchange for a rental bat.

Obviously any talk of the Red Sox trading rental players will bring about speculation regarding shortstop Xander Bogaerts, who can and almost certainly will opt out of the final three years and $60MM remaining on his contract at season’s end. Bogaerts, however, has full no-trade protection under that contract. Paired with the opt-out provision on the deal, that makes a trade involving him a difficult (albeit not impossible) one to envision. ESPN’s Jeff Passan noted this morning that other teams expect Bogaerts to remain put even if Boston sells off other short-term pieces.

Red Sox Notes: Martinez, Devers, Sale

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The five-year contract that the Red Sox signed with J.D. Martinez is now just a few months away from completion, as the slugger will be heading into free agency at the end of this season. He recently spoke with Rob Bradford of WEEI about the possibility of signing an extension and essentially said that it’s not something he thinks about much.

“That’s a Scott question. I trust Scott,” Martinez said, in reference to his agent, Scott Boras. “If Scott came to me and said, ‘Hey, this is a good deal, I think you should do it.’ I would say, ‘Let’s do it.’ If Scott says, ‘No, I think you should wait until free agency,’ then I will wait until free agency.”

Martinez is on pace to have the best season of his career at the age of 34, as he is currently hitting .380/.430/.599 (coming into tonight’s game). That production amounts to a wRC+ of 197, or 97% better than league average, easily eclipsing his career high 170 from 2018, his first year in Boston. That also places him third among qualified hitters in all of baseball going into tonight’s action, trailing only Mike Trout and Aaron Judge.

With that incredible level of production, it would be understandable for his eyes to turn into dollar signs, but that’s not where his head is at. “I don’t know if I’m the only person but I never think about any of this crap,” Martinez said. “I only think about what I have to do. I hired the best people to advise me in that situation. That’s it. You’ve known me for five years now and it’s the same answers after a good game or a bad game. It never changes. I’m the most boring interview. That’s just how my mind works.”

More notes from Beantown…

  • Another key member of the Red Sox lineup is Rafael Devers. Unlike Martinez, he’s just 25 years old and is still a year and a half away from free agency. Reportedly, he and the team were far apart in Spring Training extension talks, though that door doesn’t appear to be closed. “Growing up as a kid, this was my favorite team. To be able to sign with this club, it meant a lot,” Devers tells Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. “We had those [contract] talks during spring training and they didn’t work out. But when the time is right, we’ll have those discussions after the season and see where it goes from there, because obviously I love this place. I want to be here and it’s just a matter of just finding the right formula.” Like Martinez, Devers is also on pace to have his best season yet, as he’s hitting .335/.366/.600 for a wRC+ of 176. He also might have improved on the other side of the ball, as the advanced defensive metrics aren’t quite as pessimistic on his work this year as last year. It’s been suggested that Devers might have to move off third base eventually due to poor glovework, with Outs Above Average giving him a -13 last year, while Defensive Runs Saved also gave him -13 and Ultimate Zone Rating landed at -5.5. This year, those numbers are currently at -1, -1 and +1, with over a quarter of the season in the books.
  • A big wildcard for the remainder of Boston’s season is what they will get from Chris Sale moving forward. The lefty has been out of action all year due to a stress fracture in his rib cage. Speier reports that the team still expects Sale to return as a starter, with the club hoping he can ramp up relatively quickly because his injuries aren’t related to his arm. Manager Alex Cora told reporters, including Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic, that Sale threw a 25-pitch bullpen today. The next steps will be to throw a few more times before going out on a rehab assignment and building back up to game shape. Pitchers are allowed to rehab for 30 days, so it seems like Sale has a shot at returning by July, though that will depend on how things progress between now and then.

Red Sox Notes: Martinez, Bogaerts, Vazquez, Sale, Paxton

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J.D. Martinez’s five-year, $110MM deal with the Red Sox is up at season’s end, and the slugger again made clear this weekend that he’d love to return (link via Julian McWilliams of the Boston Globe). “Would I love to stay here?” Martinez asked rhetorically. “Yeah. I’ve expressed that to ownership.” Martinez added that he told the Sox he was “really open” to an extension as far back as the 2019-20 offseason. However, he also acknowledged that, as far as contract talks are concerned, “nothing has really happened since I got here.” Martinez further noted that if a Boston reunion isn’t in the cards, he’s at least excited to have a wider range of potential suitors thanks to the advent of the universal designated hitter.

While many nine-figure free agent deals prove regrettable by the time they draw to a close, Martinez has been a mostly sound investment for the Sox. Although he struggled in the shortened 2020 season, he boasts an overall .298/.369/.548 batting line with 118 home runs through 2296 plate appearances since signing his deal. That includes a huge .321/.370/.541 line (164 wRC+) to begin the 2022 campaign. Martinez will turn 35 in August, but his bat isn’t showing many signs of slowing down even as he enters his mid-30s. Boston has about $92.5MM in guaranteed money on the books in 2023, but $20MM of that is allocated to Xander Bogaerts, who is all but a lock to exercise an opt-out in his contract (barring an extension).

More out of Boston…

  • While Bogaerts is almost certainly ticketed for the open market at the end of the season, the star shortstop left open the possibility of in-season extension talks over the weekend. His agent Scott Boras downplayed those chances, telling Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe (Twitter link) that extension talks with the Sox won’t take place during the regular season. Whether behind-the-scenes discussions take place or not, it has never seemed likely the sides will come to an agreement after they were extremely far apart in Spring Training. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported last month that Boston had offered an additional one year and $30MM to convince Bogaerts to forego his opt-out possibility. That’s well shy of the three-time All-Star’s likely market value, and Bogaerts implied over the weekend the team would have to significantly raise their offer were they to try to reignite talks. “I don’t know how this would work,” he said.”But if they talk to Scott behind closed doors and it’s something that’s fair, he can come to me. We’ll see how that goes.
  • The Red Sox “were quietly shopping” Christian Vazquez over the winter but (obviously) never lined up with a potential trade partner, writes Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic in her latest mailbag column. Boston exercised a $7MM club option on the 32-year-old catcher at the end of the 2021 season but was also reported to be heavily in the mix for Pirates catcher Jacob Stallings over the winter — before he was ultimately instead traded to Miami. Vazquez slugged 23 homers in the “juiced ball” season in 2019 and had a stronger 2020 campaign (on a rate basis). However, he’s struggled to a .252/.302/.344 output in 583 subsequent plate appearances (2022 included). McCaffrey suggests that if the Sox don’t right the ship, Vazquez could again be a trade candidate this summer, which would leave prospect Connor Wong and veteran Kevin Plawecki as the team’s primary catchers. Of course, Plawecki himself is a free agent at season’s end and could change hands in such a scenario — assuming he can bounce back from the dreadful .139/.179/.167 slash he’s posted through his first 40 plate appearances.
  • Injured Sox ace Chris Sale, who is on the 60-day IL with a stress fracture in his rib cage, has been cleared to begin throwing and is playing catch, tweets Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. At last check, Sale wasn’t throwing and was dealing with a non-baseball, non-Covid related medical issue, but it seems he’s put that past him and is officially progressing toward a return to the mound. The seven-time All-Star has thrown just 42 2/3 innings since the conclusion of the 2019 season, primarily due to Tommy John surgery. Speier also notes that fellow southpaw James Paxton is still receiving treatment and has yet to begin throwing as he works back from 2021 Tommy John surgery. The Sox announced earlier this month that Paxton was dealing with continued soreness in his elbow.
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