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J.D. Martinez

Red Sox Notes: Martinez, Bogaerts, Vazquez, Sale, Paxton

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J.D. Martinez’s five-year, $110MM deal with the Red Sox is up at season’s end, and the slugger again made clear this weekend that he’d love to return (link via Julian McWilliams of the Boston Globe). “Would I love to stay here?” Martinez asked rhetorically. “Yeah. I’ve expressed that to ownership.” Martinez added that he told the Sox he was “really open” to an extension as far back as the 2019-20 offseason. However, he also acknowledged that, as far as contract talks are concerned, “nothing has really happened since I got here.” Martinez further noted that if a Boston reunion isn’t in the cards, he’s at least excited to have a wider range of potential suitors thanks to the advent of the universal designated hitter.

While many nine-figure free agent deals prove regrettable by the time they draw to a close, Martinez has been a mostly sound investment for the Sox. Although he struggled in the shortened 2020 season, he boasts an overall .298/.369/.548 batting line with 118 home runs through 2296 plate appearances since signing his deal. That includes a huge .321/.370/.541 line (164 wRC+) to begin the 2022 campaign. Martinez will turn 35 in August, but his bat isn’t showing many signs of slowing down even as he enters his mid-30s. Boston has about $92.5MM in guaranteed money on the books in 2023, but $20MM of that is allocated to Xander Bogaerts, who is all but a lock to exercise an opt-out in his contract (barring an extension).

More out of Boston…

  • While Bogaerts is almost certainly ticketed for the open market at the end of the season, the star shortstop left open the possibility of in-season extension talks over the weekend. His agent Scott Boras downplayed those chances, telling Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe (Twitter link) that extension talks with the Sox won’t take place during the regular season. Whether behind-the-scenes discussions take place or not, it has never seemed likely the sides will come to an agreement after they were extremely far apart in Spring Training. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported last month that Boston had offered an additional one year and $30MM to convince Bogaerts to forego his opt-out possibility. That’s well shy of the three-time All-Star’s likely market value, and Bogaerts implied over the weekend the team would have to significantly raise their offer were they to try to reignite talks. “I don’t know how this would work,” he said.”But if they talk to Scott behind closed doors and it’s something that’s fair, he can come to me. We’ll see how that goes.
  • The Red Sox “were quietly shopping” Christian Vazquez over the winter but (obviously) never lined up with a potential trade partner, writes Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic in her latest mailbag column. Boston exercised a $7MM club option on the 32-year-old catcher at the end of the 2021 season but was also reported to be heavily in the mix for Pirates catcher Jacob Stallings over the winter — before he was ultimately instead traded to Miami. Vazquez slugged 23 homers in the “juiced ball” season in 2019 and had a stronger 2020 campaign (on a rate basis). However, he’s struggled to a .252/.302/.344 output in 583 subsequent plate appearances (2022 included). McCaffrey suggests that if the Sox don’t right the ship, Vazquez could again be a trade candidate this summer, which would leave prospect Connor Wong and veteran Kevin Plawecki as the team’s primary catchers. Of course, Plawecki himself is a free agent at season’s end and could change hands in such a scenario — assuming he can bounce back from the dreadful .139/.179/.167 slash he’s posted through his first 40 plate appearances.
  • Injured Sox ace Chris Sale, who is on the 60-day IL with a stress fracture in his rib cage, has been cleared to begin throwing and is playing catch, tweets Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. At last check, Sale wasn’t throwing and was dealing with a non-baseball, non-Covid related medical issue, but it seems he’s put that past him and is officially progressing toward a return to the mound. The seven-time All-Star has thrown just 42 2/3 innings since the conclusion of the 2019 season, primarily due to Tommy John surgery. Speier also notes that fellow southpaw James Paxton is still receiving treatment and has yet to begin throwing as he works back from 2021 Tommy John surgery. The Sox announced earlier this month that Paxton was dealing with continued soreness in his elbow.

AL East Notes: Mancini, Means, JDM, Marwin

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The Orioles haven’t engaged either first baseman/designated hitter Trey Mancini or lefty John Means about a contract extension, reports Dan Connolly of The Athletic. Mancini is set to become a free agent at season’s end. Means is controlled through 2024.

It’s wholly unsurprising, as the Orioles haven’t had an appetite for any long-term investments during their ongoing rebuild. Even the one-year, $7MM deal they agreed to with right-hander Jordan Lyles prior to the lockout was seen as a surprise, as the O’s hadn’t previously given out more than a $3MM guarantee to any free agent since hiring general manager Mike Elias more than three years ago.

Still, as Connolly explores, the lack of an extension and the seemingly inevitable trade of Mancini — be it in the next couple weeks or this summer — will be a wildly unpopular move both among fans and in the clubhouse. Mancini, the 2021 Comeback Player of the Year, was already a fan favorite in Baltimore before overcoming stage-3 colon cancer and returning to the field with a generally productive 2021 season. He’s also entrenched as a clubhouse leader in Baltimore. The O’s will start spending money at some point once they’re ready to emerge from what’s now a four-year tanking effort, but at the moment they project to just a $64.5MM payroll — $23MM of which is dead money still owed to Chris Davis.

More from the AL East…

  • Red Sox slugger J.D. Martinez will likely see increased time in the outfield this season, writes Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com. While Martinez will continue to operate as Boston’s primary designated hitter, manager Alex Cora also said this week that Martinez will likely start in right field against left-handed pitchers — effectively pushing Jackie Bradley Jr. (who’ll start in right field against right-handed pitchers) into a platoon role. There won’t be a set DH on days against left-handed opponents, as Cora said he’ll use those opportunities to keep others in the lineup fresh. Martinez has played primarily left field when he’s been on the outfield grass in recent years, but Cotillo notes that Cora’s preference is to keep Alex Verdugo in left, Enrique Hernandez in center, and not move the outfielders around so frequently.
  • Veteran utilityman Marwin Gonzalez is in camp with the Yankees on a minor league deal, and manager Aaron Boone tells Dan Martin of the New York Post he hopes the switch-hitting Gonzalez will play his way into a roster spot, citing a desire for more versatility off his bench. “That’s something I think Tampa [Bay] has done a really good job of,” said Boone. “Their roster complements one another really well. I hope that’s the case with us.” Meanwhile, Newsday’s Erik Boland tweets that Gonzalez is “all but a lock” to make the Yankees’ roster despite having inked a minor league contract. The recent agreement to expand rosters to 28 players for the early portion of the season certainly can’t hurt Gonzalez’s chances. He’d earn a $1.15MM salary if he’s added to the big league roster.

J.D. Martinez Does Not Opt Out Of Contract With Red Sox

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J.D. Martinez has declined to exercise the opt-out provision in his contract and will therefore remain with the Red Sox for 2022, as reported by Jon Heyman of MLB Network. His original five-year deal with the club prior to the 2018 season contained three opt-outs: after the second, third and fourth years of the deal. Martinez has now declined to opt out for a third consecutive year and will play out the final season of the contract on a salary of $19.35MM.

This was a decision that really could have gone either way, as Martinez himself admitted in September that he was “right in the middle” about it. On the one hand, Martinez bounced back from an awful showing in the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign with a solid performance in 2021. His slash line this year was .286/.349/.518, good enough for a wRC+ 128 and 2.9 fWAR. There is also the fact that a universal DH is widely expected to be implemented for next year, which would open up the slugger’s market considerably, since he’s primarily a DH and only suited to occasional outfield duty. (He played 148 games this season but only took the field in 38 of them.)

But on the other hand, the Collective Bargaining Agreement is expiring December 1st, creating an offseason with a high degree of uncertainty and the potential for a labour stoppage or transaction freeze. Furthermore, if Martinez opted out of his $19.35MM guarantee, he would certainly be offered an $18.4MM qualifying offer by the Red Sox, meaning the 34-year-old would be wading into that uncertain market with draft pick forfeiture attached to him, thus dampening his earning potential.

Martinez will now stick around Boston for one more year as the Red Sox try to repeat their surprising 92-win campaign that carried them all the way to the ALCS. He figures to be the regular DH and occasionally manning the field to give a breather to regulars Enrique Hernandez, Hunter Renfroe and Alex Verdugo. If he has another strong year at the plate, he would certainly be a candidate to receive a qualifying offer a year from now, assuming that system survives the upcoming CBA negotiations in tact.

MLBTR Poll: Will J.D. Martinez Opt Out?

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With all but two teams eliminated and the offseason proper fast approaching, focus across much of baseball has shifted to 2022, particularly given an unusually strong free agent class and an uncertain (and volatile) labor situation. As previously noted by MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk, this means the resurfacing of what’s become an annual question: will J.D. Martinez exercise the opt-out clause in his contract with the Red Sox?

This will be Martinez’s third and final opportunity to opt out of the front-loaded five-year/$110MM deal he signed with Boston following the 2017 season. That call was probably never on the table last year, thanks to a less-than-stellar showing (.680 OPS, more than 200 points below his career average) in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season. It was a live possibility after 2019, though, when he put together a .304/.383/.557 line on the heels of a monster .330/.402/.629 mark in 2018. He has one year and $19.375MM left on his deal and is essentially a lock to receive a qualifying offer (set for $18.4MM) should he choose to test the market.

Following a bounceback 2021 (.286/.349/.518 in 634 plate appearances) that saw Martinez return to roughly his career averages, the opt-out is again a real option, though it does not come without potential downside. Martinez told WEEI’s Rob Bradford in late September that he’s “right in the middle” on the decision. While it’s entirely possible that his public statements are mere posturing, there are good reasons for Martinez to waffle on a decision that would require him to leave significant guaranteed money on the table without a clear picture of what the market or labor situation are likely to look like. The rumor mill is split on the issue, with Ken Rosenthal suggesting (on the Athletic Baseball Show) that he expects Martinez to exercise the clause while Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe is less convinced, particularly given the uncertain state of the universal DH.

On one hand, the 34-year-old Martinez has an enviable track-record (his .881 career OPS ranks 10th among active players) and proved in 2021 that his bat still has enough pop to make any lineup stronger. Indeed, Martinez’s would-be walk year showed few significant signs of decline; he maintained a K% and BB% (23.7% and 8.7%) roughly in line with both his career marks and MLB averages and a hard-hit rate (defined as the percentage of balls in play with an exit velocity of 95 mph or higher) of 49.4% that falls only just below his career mark of 50.8% and well above the MLB average of 38.7%. He also stayed mostly healthy, playing in 148 regular-season and nine postseason games for the Red Sox, though a late-season ankle sprain did keep him out of Boston’s AL Wild Card matchup with the Yankees.

On the other, Martinez’s defensive limitations don’t necessarily limit him to DH-only status but do make it unlikely any team would bank on playing him in the outfield on more than an occasional basis. While he was solid in limited defensive action in 2021 (2 defensive runs saved in 36 games), his career numbers tell a different story (-38 DRS, though 35 of these came in right field), and he hasn’t seen action in the outfield more than 60 times in a season since a poor showing (-18 DRS) across 118 games in right for Detroit in 2016. The probable introduction of the DH to the National League in the new CBA likely expands his market but does little to extend his on-field value.

With significant but mostly one-dimensional production, Martinez’s decision isn’t the easiest. Arguably a top-20 free agent in a strong class, Martinez is likely to receive some multi-year offers, but it’s unlikely many GMs will be eager to give a player with limited defensive value and nearing the back half of his 30s anything remotely approaching the deal he signed with the Red Sox — particularly as it will also cost them a draft pick. Another front-loaded deal is a real possibility, but teams will likely ask Martinez to take a cut in AAV for any significant length.

Accordingly, the question likely comes down to which Martinez values more: his short-term salary or a longer-term guarantee. Will Martinez bet on himself to put up another strong year and hit the market next offseason in a similar situation, or will he try to cash in on his strong 2021 and seek a longer deal?

 

(Link to poll for Trade Rumors app users)

J.D. Martinez Returns To Red Sox’ ALDS Roster; Matt Barnes Left Off

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The Red Sox announced their roster for their American League Division Series showdown against the Rays this morning, revealing that they’ll have slugger J.D. Martinez available to them for the best-of-five set. Martinez was omitted from Boston’s Wild Card roster after he tripped over second base and sprained his ankle in the final game of the regular season, but he’s apparently healthy enough to return to DH duties after a few days of downtime.

Of greater surprise, however, is that the Red Sox opted to leave right-hander Matt Barnes off the roster for this particular series. Barnes, who signed a two-year extension in July after a dominant three-month start to the season, wilted down the stretch and lost his grip on the team’s closer role.

It was a true tale of two seasons for the 31-year-old Barnes, who posted a 2.25 ERA and a massive 42 percent strikeout rate through his first 44 innings this season before collapsing with a 10.13 ERA in his final 10 2/3 innings (over a span of 16 appearances). Barnes saw his strikeout rate plummet to 26.7 percent as his 6.8 walk rate jumped to 15 percent in that time. After allowing only four homers through his first 44 innings, he yielded four more in those final 10 2/3 innings. Given that context, it’s understandable that Barnes would miss the cut, but such a scenario never would’ve seemed fathomable less than two months ago, when he put pen to paper on a two-year, $18.75MM extension.

Here’s how Boston’s roster breaks down…

Right-Handed Pitchers

Left-Handed Pitchers

Catchers

Infielders

Outfielders

Infielder/Outfielder

It’s also of note that Santana has been added to the roster. The switch-hitting speedster has been on the Covid-related injured list since Sept. 10, but the Red Sox opened a roster spot for him yesterday by outrighting shortstop Jose Iglesias (who wasn’t postseason-eligible because he signed mid-September). Santana will give the Sox some speed, a bit of pop and plenty of defensive versatility — but it wasn’t a productive 2021 season for him overall. In 127 plate appearances, Santana batted just .181/.252/.345 with five homers and four stolen bases.

Also dropped from the roster for this round were center fielder Jarren Duran, catcher Connor Wong and infielder Jonathan Arauz. Those subtractions help to pave the way for the addition of Chris Sale and Martin Perez, who weren’t on the Wild Card roster. Sale pitched in the season finale and wouldn’t have been an option in the Wild Card game, but he’ll be expected to start during the Division Series. That said, it’ll be Eduardo Rodriguez getting the ball for Game 1 against the Rays and lefty Shane McClanahan.

Red Sox Outright Jose Iglesias, Yairo Munoz

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The Red Sox have outrighted infielders Jose Iglesias and Yairo Munoz, according to a team announcement. This now leaves their 40-man roster at 39, giving them the opportunity to potentially make an addition before tomorrow’s ALDS kick-off. (Munoz had been on the COVID-19 related injured list since September 1st and thus wasn’t taking up a roster spot.)

Subtracting Iglesias from the roster isn’t terribly surprising, since he is unable to play for the club again this season anyhow on account of being signed after the August 31st deadline. Players joining an organization after that date are ineligible for postseason play with their new club. Iglesias was released by the Angels September 3rd and signed with the Red Sox September 6th. He is also heading into free agency after the postseason, making it a formality to cut him loose a bit early.

The club could now potentially add a player from their minor league system to the 40-man roster for postseason eligibility. Players in the organization but not on the 40-man roster before September 1 can still participate in the playoffs via a petition to the Commissioner’s Office, a fairly common maneuver throughout the league.

Another roster question hanging over the club is whether or not J.D. Martinez will be on it. The slugger hurt his ankle recently and was left off the roster for the Wild Card game. As noted by Jon Morosi of MLB Network, Martinez took the field today and “tested his ankle at low intensity.” When Martinez was asked if he would play tomorrow, he gave the noncommittal answer, “You’ll find out.” Of course, any player that the Red Sox could potentially call up would pale in comparison to a healthy Martinez, who had yet another excellent season at the plate, hitting .286/.349/.518, for a wRC+ of 128.

J.D. Martinez Not On Red Sox’ Wild Card Roster

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The Red Sox have announced their roster for tonight’s Wild Card showdown with their archrival New York Yankees. Perhaps most notably, slugging outfielder J.D. Martinez has been left off it after injuring his ankle in one of the more unusual on-field injuries you’re likely to see.  Nathan Eovaldi will start on the hill for the Sox. Here’s how the roster breaks down:

Right-handed-pitchers

Left-handed-pitchers

Catchers

Infielders

Outfielders

Infielder/Outfielder

Having to play a win-or-go-home playoff contest against the Yanks without Martinez is, to say the least, less than ideal for the Sox.  Moreover, the way in which Martinez injured himself surely falls under the category of “The Baseball Gods Must Hate Us.”  Jogging out to right field in the middle of the fifth inning in Sunday’s must-win contest against the Nationals, Martinez tripped over second base, spraining his left ankle.  Clearly one of the Beantowners’ three best hitters, Martinez put up a 128 wRC+, bettered only by Rafael Devers (134) and Xander Bogaerts (130).  Unfortunately for Red Sox Nation, he’ll be no more than a cheerleader tonight.

On the bright side, the Sox are starting Eovaldi, who has been the club’s best and most reliable pitcher in 2021.  Eovaldi took a huge step forward this year, which by many measures has been the best of his career.  Among starters with at least 140 innings pitched, Eovaldi led the American League in fWAR (5.6) and FIP (2.79) while finishing a close second to John Means in walk rate (4.6%).  He was able to keep the ball in the yard better than he has since 2015, with a HR/9 of just 0.74, no small feat while calling cozy Fenway Park your home.

Also of note, the Sox left Chris Sale off the roster, at least for tonight’s game.  That’s not surprising, given that he started Sunday and is coming back from Tommy John surgery he underwent in March of last year.  While Sale has been effective since returning to action on August 14, posting a 3.69 FIP, he’s also averaged just over 4.2 IP over his nine starts, and he certainly wasn’t going to pitch tonight. If Boston dispenses with the Bombers, they’ll be able to add Sale and (if healthy) Martinez to the roster for the ALDS.

J.D. Martinez Leaves Game With Left Ankle Sprain

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J.D. Martinez left today’s game after suffering what the Red Sox termed as a left ankle sprain.  The injury was suffered in bizarre fashion, as Martinez stumbled over second base while making his way out to right field to begin the bottom of the fifth inning.  Martinez played the half-inning, but was then replaced by pinch-hitter Jose Iglesias in the top of the sixth.

While normally a DH in the Red Sox lineup, Martinez has continued to see his share of time in the field, with today marking his 36th game of the season as an outfielder.  The Sox had no choice but to deploy Martinez in right field considering today’s game is in Washington, and thus the DH spot wasn’t available under National League rules.

The severity of Martinez’s injury remains to be seen, but should the slugger be limited in any way during at least the next few days, it certainly won’t help Boston’s chances of reaching the postseason, pending today’s results (or the results of a potential Game 163 playoff to determine an AL wild card berth).  After a rough 2020 season, Martinez has bounced back with a solid performance this year, hitting .286/.349/.518 with 28 homers and a league-best 42 doubles over 632 plate appearances.

J.D. Martinez “Right In The Middle” About Opt-Out Decision

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J.D. Martinez’s top priority is on getting the Red Sox into the playoffs, though once this season’s business is complete, Martinez will have to decide whether or not to return to the Sox for 2022.  The slugger tells WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford that he is “right in the middle” about whether he will opt out of the final season (and $19.375MM) on his contract, or if he’ll come back for a fifth year in Boston.

Martinez’s original five-year/$110MM pact from the 2017-18 offseason was somewhat unusually structured, giving both Martinez and the team multiple opportunities to opt out of the deal, with Boston’s concern being Martinez’s history of foot injuries.  As it turned out, Martinez stayed relatively healthy, and delivered huge numbers in 2018-19 before tailing off badly in 2020.  However, Martinez spoke at length about how the COVID-altered circumstances of the 2020 season impacted his ability to prepare and adjust for games, and his bat has largely bounced back in the somewhat more normalized environment of the 2021 campaign.

It’s a sign of how well Martinez has performed during his career that his .285/.349/.516 slash line and 29 homers over 612 plate appearances this season actually represents a step down from his 2014-19 prime, though Martinez is certainly still a dangerous bat.  A below-average walk rate is the only real sign of decline for the 34-year-old, who is still making plenty of hard contact and hitting for plenty of power.

Martinez has already passed on opting out of his contract following each of the last two seasons.  While last year’s decision was hardly a surprise given his subpar numbers, Martinez also expressed concern over how the free agent market would look for himself and for players as a whole in the wake of the pandemic season.  Given how vocal Martinez was about his displeasure with his own past free agent experience, he might be more inclined to take the security of his 2022 salary and avoid the possibility of another unusual offseason, considering the rumblings of labor struggles between owners and players.

That said, the new Collective Bargaining Agreement could also represent an argument for Martinez to opt out.  It has been widely assumed that the next CBA will extend the designated hitter to the National League, thus opening Martinez’s market up to 15 other teams.  While Martinez isn’t a DH-only player, an NL team would surely prefer to have the DH available if signing Martinez to a multi-year contract.  Of course, Martinez will have to make his opt-out call within five days of the end of the World Series — well before we’ll know if the universal DH will be a reality.

Looking at just the American League, teams like the Mariners, Tigers (Martinez’s former team), Indians, and perhaps even the White Sox, Blue Jays, or Royals could all make room for the veteran slugger in their 2022 lineups.  A return to Boston also couldn’t be ruled out beyond just declining the opt-out clause, as Martinez and the Red Sox could potentially work out an extension or another year or two to keep Martinez from opting out.

2021-22 Qualifying Offer Candidates

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With the trade deadline in the rearview mirror and a little more than six weeks remaining in the regular season, plenty of front offices are turning their attention towards the upcoming offseason. The first notable decision for many clubs will be to decide whether to tag one or more of their top impending free agents with a qualifying offer.

As a reminder, the qualifying offer is a one-year contract offer teams can make to certain impending free agents. The precise value of the QO has yet to be calculated, but it’s determined as the average salary of the game’s 125 highest-paid players. Last season, the QO value was set at $18.9MM. If the player accepts the offer, he returns to his current team on that one-year deal. If he rejects, his previous team would receive draft pick compensation should he sign elsewhere.

Last season, six players (George Springer, Trevor Bauer, J.T. Realmuto, DJ LeMahieu, Kevin Gausman and Marcus Stroman) received qualifying offers. Gausman and Stroman accepted the QO, while Realmuto and LeMahieu re-signed with their current clubs as free agents. The Reds and Astros received compensatory picks (used on Jay Allen and Chayce McDermott, respectively) when Bauer and Springer departed.

The collective bargaining agreement prohibits a player from being tagged with a qualifying offer multiple times in his career. (A list of every active big leaguer who has previously received a QO is available here). Similarly, in order to be eligible, the player must have spent the entire preceding season on the same team. Players traded midseason cannot be tagged with a QO.

With the majority of the 2021 season in the books, we can take a look at the upcoming free agent class to predict which players might wind up receiving qualifying offer this winter.

Locks

This group is fairly straightforward, as there’s very little chance any of these players would accept a qualifying offer. Correa, Seager and Freeman all have MVP-caliber upside and are locks to pull in long-term deals this winter. Semien didn’t receive a QO from the A’s after a down year in 2020, took a pillow contract with the Jays for almost the value of the QO ($18MM), and has essentially replicated his 2019 form that earned him a third place finish in AL MVP voting. He should find a big multi-year deal this time around.

Story is having a bit of a down year, but there’s no doubt the Rockies will make him a qualifying offer after not trading him at the deadline. Nick Groke of the Athletic wrote this week that Colorado hasn’t given up hope of convincing him to sign a long-term extension, but that seems unlikely given Story’s own bewilderment he wasn’t moved to a contender this summer. Whether Story is willing to return to Denver or not, he’ll receive a QO.

Kershaw, Ray and Rodón will be among the top pitchers on the market. Kershaw has spent the past couple months on the injured list due to forearm soreness, but he’s expected back in September and is in the midst of another fantastic season. So long as he’s healthy, he’s a lock for a QO. Ray and Rodón both had to settle for one-year deals after poor 2020 seasons, but they’ve each been among the best pitchers in the American League this year.

Likely

Over the past two seasons, Taylor has somewhat quietly been one of the game’s top 25 qualified hitters by measure of wRC+ and he’s versatile enough to cover any non-catcher position on the diamond. He’s not a true everyday player at any one spot and he’s making contact at a career-worst rate this season, so he falls just short of being an absolute lock for a QO. But the Dodgers would be as willing as any team to shoulder a significant one-year salary were Taylor to accept, and his body of work should be sufficient to warrant a multi-year deal regardless.

The Mets’ players in this group are two of the more interesting free agents in the class. Conforto entered the season looking like a lock for a QO and seemingly having a chance at landing nine figures with a strong platform year. He missed a month with injury, though, and hasn’t made anywhere near his typical level of impact at the plate. He’s shown some life over the past few weeks, and between his track record and age (28), Conforto still seems a good bet to land a long-term deal.

Syndergaard was a top-of-the-rotation starter at his peak, but he hasn’t pitched since 2019 because of Tommy John surgery. He’s eyeing a September return — likely in relief, given his dwindling time to build up arm strength — and his late-season form will obviously be critical to his market. The Mets should run one of the higher payrolls in the league, and Syndergaard has the upside to be an ace if healthy, so New York still seems more likely than not to make the offer.

Similarly, Verlander has essentially missed two full seasons because of his own Tommy John procedure. That’s a scary development for a pitcher who’ll be 39 on Opening Day 2022, but he was still every bit an ace when we last saw him in 2018-19. The Astros are a win-now club that runs high payrolls, so Verlander accepting a QO wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world. If he declines and signs elsewhere, Houston would recoup some much-needed draft compensation after losing their past two first-round picks as punishment for the sign-stealing scandal.

Colorado reportedly showed even less interest in trading Gray than they did with Story at the deadline. There’s apparently mutual interest about working out a multi-year extension, and the QO could serve as a temporary measure to keep Gray in Denver while the Rockies and Gray’s representatives work on a long-term deal.

Rodríguez has bounced back to take the ball every fifth day this year after a scary bout with myocarditis cost him all of 2020. His ERA’s pushing 5.00, but his peripherals are far better than that bottom line run prevention and the southpaw has an established track record of mid-rotation production.

The Mariners are facing a difficult decision regarding Kikuchi, as MLBTR’s Steve Adams explored last month. Seattle must decide whether to exercise a package deal of four successive club options at $16.5MM apiece (essentially a four-year, $66MM extension) this winter. If the Mariners don’t exercise their four-year option, Kikuchi has a $13MM player option to return to Seattle for 2022. If both parties decline their ends, the 30-year-old would hit free agency this offseason, although the M’s could then tag Kikuchi with a qualifying offer.

Given that Kikuchi will only be a free agent if he passes on a $13MM player option, the Mariners would likely make him a QO worth a few million dollars more if it comes to that — either with the expectation he’ll decline in search of a longer-term deal, or with the hope he accepts and Seattle can keep him in the fold next season without committing themselves to the additional three years of guaranteed money.

Possible

The Giants have plenty of payroll space this offseason and seem likely to try to keep most of this season’s core together. Belt has been one of the sport’s most productive offensive players on a rate basis over the past two years. But he’s also 33 years old, has a long injury history and is striking out at the highest rate of his career.

San Francisco bought low on DeSclafani over the winter after he had a tough 2020 season with the Reds. He’s bounced back to post a very strong 3.26 ERA, although his peripherals are closer to average and he’s benefitted from opponents’ .257 batting average on balls in play. The Giants will likely see 4/5 of their starting rotation hit free agency this winter, so they could be eager to bring DeSclafani back, even if that comes via a lofty 2022 salary.

Morton has had another productive season in his first year as a Brave, but his previous two teams (the Astros in 2018 and the Rays in 2020) let him reach free agency without making a qualifying offer despite his consistently strong track record. That’s presumably due to concerns about his past injury history and age. He’ll turn 38 this winter and might check his potential earning power by limiting himself to teams in the Southeastern part of the country — as he reportedly did last offseason. That could inspire the Braves to pass on a QO, but Morton continually reels off above-average performances, and this is an Atlanta front office that has been eager to dole out hefty single-year salaries for key veteran upgrades in recent years.

Iglesias looks like the top impending free agent reliever (assuming the White Sox exercise their option over Craig Kimbrel). He’s sporting an ERA under 3.00 for the fifth time in his six seasons since moving to the bullpen, and he’s never had a single-season SIERA above 3.55. Home runs have been an issue, but Iglesias gets above-average results year in and year out and has some of the best strikeout and walk numbers in the game in 2021.

Long Shots

The Giants hold a $22MM club option (with a $3MM buyout) over Posey’s services for next season. If the front office is willing to commit him a significant salary, they’ll just exercise the option rather than going the QO route. Indeed, they’re reportedly planning to do exactly that (or to potentially pursue a multi-year extension with the franchise icon). Either way, there’s no real reason to involve the qualifying offer here.

Canha would be a very plausible qualifying offer candidate on many teams. He’s been a well above-average hitter and overall performer three years running and is generally one of the game’s more underrated players. The A’s, though, didn’t make a QO to either of Semien or Liam Hendriks last season. Canha’s a Bay Area native, and his age (33 in February) will cap the length of offers he receives from other clubs. Given that, it’s not hard to envision him accepting a QO if offered. The A’s, who perennially run low payrolls and will have a loaded class of arbitration-eligible players this winter, don’t seem likely to take that risk.

Wainwright has had a fantastic 2021 season, and the Cardinals figure to be motivated to keep the franchise icon in St. Louis in some capacity. But that also looked to be true after his strong 2020 campaign, and Wainwright only wound up landing a one-year, $8MM deal. He’d be well-deserved in demanding a raise over that sum to return next season, but it remains to be seen if the Cardinals would be willing to chance more than doubling his salary  — particularly if they feel Wainwright’s motivated to remain in St. Louis rather than pursue the highest possible offers in free agency.

Kluber signed an $11MM deal with the Yankees last offseason after back-to-back seasons wrecked by injury. He pitched well through ten starts but has been out since late May with a shoulder strain. Kluber’s nearing a return to action, but his missing nearly three months only adds to prior concerns about his ability to handle a significant workload at this stage of his career.

Kim, García and Wood are all having strong 2021 seasons and could plausibly land solid multi-year deals this winter. Each has enough question marks that their teams don’t seem especially likely to offer a salary in the range of the qualifying offer, though. Kim doesn’t miss many bats; García has had extreme highs and lows throughout his career; Wood has a checkered injury history. García’s contract contains a $12MM club option that vests into a mutual option if he reaches 492 plate appearances this season. If that option doesn’t vest, the Brewers would obviously have no incentive to decline the option only to make a qualifying offer at a higher price point.

Opt-Out Clauses

Each of Arenado (six years, $179MM), Castellanos (two years, $34MM) and Martinez (one year, $19.35MM) has significant guaranteed money remaining on their contracts but can opt out of those deals this winter. Arenado and Castellanos would be locks to reject qualifying offers if they trigger their opt-out provisions, since they’d be foregoing bigger guarantees to test the market.

Martinez’s player option is of similar enough value to the projected value of the qualifying offer that he could plausibly trigger the opt-out but then accept a QO. Even if that proved to be the case, the Red Sox would probably be happy to keep him in the middle of the lineup for another season.

Ineligible

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