The Nationals won their first-ever World Series title in 2019, but success has eluded the franchise since then. Washington was unable to seriously defend its title during the shortened 2020 season, as it missed the playoffs with a 26-34 record, and the team has stumbled to a 7-9 mark this year. While it is still very early, the Nationals’ odds of making the postseason in 2021 have already dropped from 22.4 percent to 15.2 since Opening Day, per FanGraphs.
The Nats have ample time to get on track (they have won two in a row), but what if they aren’t in contention around the July 30 trade deadline? Would general manager Mike Rizzo sell off any notable pieces? If Rizzo would be willing to do so (his in-season trade history suggests he wouldn’t be), he’d have a coveted trade chip in pending free agent and three-time Cy Young winner Max Scherzer.
Although he was effective last year, Scherzer was not his typical elite self. However, the soon-to-be 37-year-old is back in superb form this season, having thrown 25 innings of 1.80 ERA/2.79 SIERA ball with a 35.9 percent strikeout rate and a 4.3 percent walk rate. His K-BB percentage (31.5) and swinging-strike rate (15.7 percent) rank in the top 10 among major league starters.
With Scherzer dominating again, both Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic and Mark Feinsand of MLB.com have recently tackled the possibility of the Nationals trading the fiery right-hander this summer. As they note, there are some complicating factors that could scuttle a deal. For one, because Scherzer has 10-and-5 rights, he would be able to veto any trade. There’s also the matter of his $35MM salary – which could limit his market to higher spending teams – not to mention the unconventional structure of his contract. Even though the deal only runs through this season, the Nationals are on the hook for annual payments of $15MM to Scherzer from 2015-28. An acquiring team could take on at least some of that, though it wouldn’t increase his value in a trade.
The deadline is still three-plus months away, but if Washington doesn’t rebound or extend Scherzer by then, he’ll be popular in trade rumors. How do you expect this situation to play out? Will Scherzer stay put through the season or end 2021 in a different uniform?
(Poll link for app users)
OK this is blasphemy honestly what the heck is this post
I didn’t realize that Connor Byrne was a Nats fan who was prohibited by his fandom from such speculation.
Not really. More of a case of MLBTR’s attempts to get page views with “Will (Team X) Trade (Marquee Player) This Summer?”. In April, with 90% of the season still to go.
Same story might come up of Freeman with the Braves… and that’s even more outrageous than Max. But if you think about it, it makes a lot of sense. What if the Braves are still struggling and out of it by the trade deadline and still haven’t signed an extension with Freeman? Assuming he’s playing fine, you can get quite the haul for a rental like him. Of course you risk not getting him back, but we are kinda risking that anyways with no extension at this point
why does it matter when we’re speculating? it’s just a fun excersize.
The writer is a nats fan? That’s a stab straight in the back..
*face palm*
OK, it’s a click thing.
But MLBTR continues to look at MLB as if it’s statistics about robotic players. They ignore the philosophies that individual teams FO’s use in constructing their teams. They ignore how players are used by their managers and what those players are required to do to help their team win. To compare the statistics of players that play for a power team in a small park to those on a team that play small ball in a large park is apples and oranges.
As for this – Nationals ownership is extremely loyal to players that have done them well (contrary to the demagogic comments frequently made here – and many teams ownerships do the same). In Bryce Harper’s walk year, Mike Rizzo had a trade worked out mid-season with the Astros to send Harper there as a rental for 2-3 prospects. Ownership stepped in and nixed the deal. Rizzo and his staff did their job – what was best for the roster. Ownership felt they owed Harper and his wife for what they had contributed to the franchise, and felt that trading him for some so-so prospects was disrespectful in regards to his accomplishments. At the time the Nationals knew they were going to let Harper go in free agency, and in fact never negotiated with Scott Boras’ on a new contract.
The idea that the Washington Nationals would let Max Scherzer go is absurd. Like many business owners, their long-term employees are valued and given the respect they’ve earned. To some business owners / front office management people that view their employees as robots…….
Is Nat’s ownership really that loyal? Of the 3 big FA’s in 2019 they resigned only 1 the others took better contracts elsewhere. Seems to me that Nat’s ownership is loyal to the players willing to accept the unique structure of their long term contracts. And every indication was that they did negotiate with Harper, Harper said so much, in fact Harper walked out of a meeting with Lerner thinking that he would be a Nat for life, didn’t happen.
I could easily see a scenario where Scherzer is traded.
Maybe the Nat’s are going to say they feel the covid losses badly (your choice to believe them or not).
Maybe they think he’s getting a little long in the tooth and don’t want to offer the money it will take.
Maybe they’re out of it and want to recoup some value for a depleted farm system.
Maybe they do what the Yankees did, al la Chapman, trade and resign.
Maybe Scherzer doesn’t want to sign another one of the Nat’s contract structure.
Maybe Scherzer wants to have a go under brighter lights or better chance at another championship.
Do I think they’ll trade him? unlikely, but to assert that there’s not chance and its because of some imaginary loyalty the Lerners have is asinine.
Oh and all of that is to say nothing of the idea that someone might just come along and offer him stupid money for 1-3 years. Its not unreasonable to think that anyone of TOR – CHI – SD – NYM – NNY – SF – HUS – PHI – LAD – LAA – maybe even SEA (everyone is calling them a spender this winter) could come along and offer the kind of money the WAS wouldn’t match.
“Do I think they’ll trade him? unlikely, but to assert that there’s not chance and its because of some imaginary loyalty the Lerners have is asinine.”
There is indeed Lerner loyalty to Max, and there’s nothing imaginary about it.
“Is Nat’s ownership really that loyal? Of the 3 big FA’s in 2019 they resigned only 1 the others took better contracts elsewhere.”
It’s always ownership’s fault when a player does not reupp with a team. Right? They bailed on Harper because they wanted $$ to sign Rendon the following year (Soto has become the player Harper wishes he could be). Rendon signed with Angels bc he was done with the East Coast.
lol keep drinking that Lerner Kool-Aid
No prob. And you keep using that vivid imagination of yours to create poorly formed straw man arguments.
lol everything I said is fact, you can look it up, you on the other hand are fabricating reasoning such as never negotiated with Harper but its well documented that they did. Rendon left because he had a better offer then the Nat’s would offer and the only one that stuck around was the one that signed one of the Nat’s unique contracts. Literally all the reasoning you are citing is wrong, you’re making it up to suit your argument.
I’m not rendering a judgement on if they should have signed any of those guys or not (I was not a fan of the Strasburg contract) but reasonable minds can differ, But don’t sit back and pretend like I’m making stuff up when everything I said is backable, while your argument is nothing more then make-believe fiction.
Nope, barely anything you have stated is fact. You do not have a clue what you are talking about. It’s obvious, and you’re not even good at it. You either dont follow this team on a daily basis, or you’re a lame Google enabler.
“The only one that stuck around for one of Nat’s unique contracts”. — ??!! — that’s NOT a fact. There are at least THREE guys who have signed one of their deferred $$ contracts. Scherzer, Strasburg, and R Soriano. And you’re not worth it for me to look up if there are more.
“Rendon left because he had a better offer…” — no kidding. Really ??!!
I never suggested the Lerners did not negotiate w/ Harper. Go back. Where did I say that? EVERYONE knows they made an offer to the guy.
“I’m not rendering a judgement on if they should have signed any of those guys or not” — actually, you did. You questioned the team’s loyalty to the players. And now you’re tap dancing. You’re the typical crybaby who rants when ownership doesnt spend $$ on contracts the way you want them spent.
I’m sure you’ve got more “make-believe fiction”. C’mon, Brenda. What else you got?
lol nice fiction bud, keep making it up, I’m done with you now because its impossible to have a conversation with someone who is blind to facts and emotional to the topic, which you clearly are NATSMAN1..
Oh Brenda, you’re stopping posting now? Your feelings got hurt?
It’s impossible for you to have a conversation now? Sure it is, because you realize you got called out on all of your nonsense. You don’t follow this team, and its’ so obvious that you’re embarrassing yourself. Typical MLBTR drive by poster. Good riddance.
lol as suspected nothing you said held up, what a surprise, You are such an embarrassment to yourself, you speak nothing but nonsense, you don’t even seem to follow baseball, typical uninformed simpleton..
Bye Brenda, don’t be too butt hurt.
Scherzer can throw strikes. The Cardinals pitching staff issued 12 walks with 2 hit batters all in one game. 15 Free Passes!!!
They get beaten by one run. Crazy!!!!
Where is all of this so called depth of fantastic pitchers the Cardinals said the have?????? Traded away for players who aren’t even on the current Cardinal roster??
The Cardinals need Scherzer right now. Flaherty, after his pitiful first start is 7-0. Excellent for a pitcher who has his mind set on Multi Million – Multi year contract. Martinez, is a head case. Wainwright is dependabl—- but only every other start!!
Substitute starters,,, they have as many walks as they do strikes!!!!!
Basically the Cardinals only have one dependable Starting Pitcher ——-(Flaherty).
Losing games because of an abundance of walks is Little League stuff. Great defense behind these pitchers too.
No excuse for not being able to throw strikes if you are a MLB caliber pitcher
Yea this should not be an article. He will probably even end up resigning with Washington in free agency
AJ Preller on line 1 near the deadline.
Nats are a game out…what? NL East is up for grabs
Lol no team is going to take on even a small part of those Bonilla payments in a trade.
I assume they would only have to pay one year of the deferred money and if thats the case they absolutely would. Not that it matters cause nobodys getting him. Max will be a nat.
Why only one year?
In any case, contract contingencies make a trade impossible.
Because he is a free agent at the end of the season.
No team would. They’d only have the prorated, deferred portion remaining from this singular season.
Same thought when I read article. That’s a heap of money for a long time.
Instead of getting a kings ransom for Bryce Harper, they got nothing. The question is did they learn from their mistake.
They wouldn’t have gotten a kings ransom unless they traded him by deadline. With one year left no one wanted to give to much for him. It was JB Bubkasas (However you spell it) and maybe Garrett Stubbs. Also they shouldn’t have traded him at the beginning of year because they were suppose to make postseason.
The return the Nationals got for Bryce Harper, in addition to a compensatory pick, was to further enhance their reputation. Worth much more than whatever castoffs they’d have gotten for part of a year of Harper at his final arbitration salary. That they made a good faith effort to retain Harper (while knowing they had Juan Soto waiting in the wings) goes a long way toward attracting new players and extending current ones.
Yes. The Braves and Mets should run away soon.
Elope? That’s sweet. Always knew you were a softy, MF22.
Hey man I just think it’s to early to tell. Braves pitching is sketchy and bottom of offense is bad so far. The Mets were playing well but bullpen is roughed up and top 4 hitters are struggling. The Nats have had injures (no excuse), but have also had some poor SP performances and hitting has been rough at times. Marlins and Phils could somehow win. 2x Cy young Fedde duels Degrom today
Nats have a good team on paper but with Corbin and stras doing like this I’m not confident anymore. Maybe they shut me up. I thinks it’s funny how braves fans think acuna is a better hitter than Soto now bc of like 15 games lol.
as a braves fan there is no way Acuna is a better hitter then Soto. He is one of the most complete hitters I’ve seen in my entire life. It’s not all Braves fans that are blasphemous lol. I also think it’s too early to count out the Nationals. If their bats heat up it’s gonna be a scary line-up with power threats all through out it. Let me tell you though, the Mets rotation is really scary. Especially with Stroman and Walker stepping up.
I think they fixed Corbin cuz he was great his last outing, He was focused on his other pitches but not his main two. Still need a start or two to be fully sold but I like what I saw. Mets rotation is doing good/bad. Top 3 are good especially Stroman who is proving me wrong. The bottom seems pretty bad. Bullpen seems sketchy to. Except for a pitcher or two.
Braves fans have been saying acuna is better then Soto for a while now and for a good reason. Acuna is 100% a more well rounded player. As of now can Soto out hit him? Yes but Soto barely but doesn’t have the speed defense or arm acuna has. Acuna is a 5 tool player Soto is only a hitter and with less power..
Acuna is definitely and more productive player. But I’d stil take Soto on my team over acuna. Having the better hitter counts when your in the playoffs and he is up to the plate in a crucial situation.
I agree. Let’s just see and wait out the season.
Tbh the NL east is kind of playing bad lol. All teams look the same rn lol. Rn anyone could win the division.
You remember not to long ago placing the Mets over the Dodgers in your power rankings? Do you remember telling everyone the Mets are about to go 8-3? That didn’t age well, did it? Nice to see a little humility out of you. It’s definitely earned after all the claims you make.
As a profound Nats hater, I hope so.
But no.
Only a Philly fan would hate the Nats. I’m a 40 year Mets fan and I was happy for them when they won. They haven’t been around long enough to “hate” – and the only really douchey teams they had self destructed on their own
how do we hate the Nats more then anyone? most people honestly don’t dislike them that much around here.
I was just being a jerk. But seriously who has any reason to hate the Nats? Unrelated: deGrom is pitching like a GOD right now
Not just a hater, but a “profound” Nats hater. Wow. Wish we couldve seen you wet the bed when they won it all in ’19.
No. If Scherzer is pitching well, the Nats will want to keep him, if he’s stumbling, no one will take on the money
What if he is pitching well and they are out of the race?
Then they have a 37 year old pitcher with value and they have to do what they have to do. Wayne Gretzky and Babe Ruth both got traded, it happens.
Also have to factor in that the Nats farm system is a dumpster fire, just about everybody has them ranked dead last in their MLB farm rankings. They really need young talent in their organization moving forward.
My thinking is that if Scherzer is pitching well, the Nats will be winning
I said no, but in the end I think if they smarted up(after Bryce Harper’s situation) it would only be if they were falling out of contention
Would love to see him as a Jay but it would never happen. Especially not since they will never trade him. Then again crazier stuff has happened with baseball recently.
I agree, As a Jays Fan he is one of the guys I had in mind prior to season start. If the Nats are 6-7 games out by the dead-line it will get interesting.
That would be awesome to see him in Toronto even if only for a short period of time. Pearson would along with others could learn so much from that bulldog.
Far to early to make a decision, the division is currently separated by a game. I think if they’re out of the running Max and the Nats part ways.
There is no way Nationals should trade a guy who will likely the first player to be elected to Hall of Fame with a Nats cap. How can you trade someone like that? You keep him until he retires.
Not an issue. Lots of players entered the Hall in the cap of the team that traded them.
You do it by trading him then bringing him back as a FA next offseason
That almost never happens.
That’s because the team usually isn’t interested in bringing the player back. If the Nats are serious about bringing Max back there is no evidence that trading him would hurt them in that endeavor. They already can’t QO him even if they don’t trade him.
Just chill tf out. The Nats are fine, and imo they’re just as good as they were in 2019. Wish they could’ve pulled off a Suarez deal this off-season, but even though that didn’t happen, this is still a solid team and they’ll be fine.
Just as good as 2019???. Not even close. Pitching is old and injured and regressing. Strasburg-injured, Corbin-regressing, Scherzer-oldie, but goodie. Sellers for sure. Yup, Scherzer will go.
They’re not as good as 2019 (Rendon). But “not even close”? Uhh, no. If they stay healthy they’re in it with everyone else in the East.
Obviously the Rendon loss is what makes my statement seem crazy, but with the additions of Bell, Schwarber, and Hand, and also the rookies that are laced across that team as well, I think they could make up that Rendon WAR in all of those other players combined.
Their BP is potentially much better than in 2019 at least.
Nationals trading Mad Max, I doubt it. He will be wearing that hat when he’s inducted into Cooperstown.
Can still do that if they trade him
Alright, MLBTR, this is just silly. I know you said this is really early.. several times..but just because you said it was very early doesn’t mean it’s not TOO early for this article. Had you waited for July or maybe even June, then maybe a little less of this article could have been devoted to explaining so much about how early this topic is.
It will depend on if they’re in the race at the deadline. If they are, then you can completely forget about it. If not, then I like to think they learned their lesson after the Bryce Harper disaster. And Scherzer already isn’t a lifelong Nat even if they don’t trade him, having previously played for the Diamondbacks and Tigers.
They can always pull an Aroldis Chapman. Trade him 2 months before FA then bring him back in the offseason.
Some emotional responses rather than objective ones. I think if anything, his contract structure makes him easier to trade. The 10 and five might be more of a problem depending on if he has strong preferences about where he plays. But you have to assume that only a contender would be interested a 37 yr old pitcher even one as good as Max. So the deciding factor becomes the team’s record at the end of July. If I were the Nats, I’d have to really believe I had a shot to win or else I would definitely make the trade. I like the idea of the Blue Jays. They have some good young trade pieces. The Nats should be thinking long term. Atlanta is pretty young, the Mets are pretty rich, and the Marlins are getting better fast. Philadelphia is a wild card to me, but no mater what, the East is going to be tough for a while.
I think the contract structure actually works against a deal, if the acquiring team would be responsible for a significant portion. I can’t think of that many teams that defer as much money as the Nats do, for as long as they do. There is the infamous Bonilla deal, but am I missing any contracts?
Either way, I don’t see them dealing him. It’s not the Nats M.O., and he has 10/5 rights. Plus I don’t think the haul would be as big as maybe some are envisioning.
No. He’ll sign a new contract with the Nats.
Gonsolin + Beaty + Joe Kelly for Max.
Nats assume enough salary to get LAD under the “lose a draft pick” tax penalty.
Speculative click bait article.
They should trade him for that Tinkler person out of Cincinnati.
Gotta take the Haul if they are out at the break –
This team is lite on talent and a ton of folks leaving after this year- 1/2 the Inf, both C, some Pen, 3/5 the staff
Haven’t had a good minors system in almost a decade, needs the injection
As long as you have a player like Soto, you do whatever you can to ensure playoff baseball.
Who would take this contract?
The Yankees?
SMH
Plus with the kind of contract Maz has, I thought he was a National for life
25+ teams would. He only makes 20 right now yet counts for 35 against the cap. Nats set up contract to pay him 15 of 35 owed after contract is up.
So an acquiring team would only be on the hook for rest of 20 mil owed over the season unless nats ate that in the trade. Confusing contract and writer didn’t care to sort it out in his own mind before writing it
Wait, is it 15m deferred per season until ’28, or 15m total until ’28? I read it as 15m per year until ’28, which is brutal for a guy not playing. 15m total deferred makes it look much better.
It’s all deferred. 35 mil cap hit but he only makes 20 per then 15 per once contract is up for same amount of years. Think it was a 6 year deal initially. Maybe 7.
So the 15 won’t count against future cap but still are funds nats will be paying for a long time. That’ll have to impact their future moves and salary flexibility
I don’t think so. Rizzo knows he still has a competitive team, and with Soto on the team you try to pry that window open as long as you can. Jays fans relax… he’s too expensive for you anyway… you guys can’t even play in your home town yet! And if anyone a panicking Brian Cashman offers the Nats his house and family
Hey Connor i
Know you can do better than this! The Nationals have a better chance to be move than scherzer
The Nats won’t trade him unless he wants to play for a contender and the bottom has fallen out for the Nats. Hopefully the Nats will be competitive enough to make that moot.
It’s a buyers market still. Big time. Fan favorites won’t be dealt bc no one will make an offer worthy of acquiring his talent. Especially in the last year of his deal
So when I click out then back into article I can vote again ?! Huh. Reminds me of this past election when I voted 17,843,006 times
So true
Mad Max I love you and you are the best pitcher of my generation. Stats may not say so but you are.
From,
Nats fan
If they arent in contention, then they should. They struggle last year and if they struggle again this year they need to capitalize on what they can get returns on. Not like they can’t attempt to resign him
Washington has the economic resources to offset a lot of his salary, and he could bring in several prospects that would help them reload. If he wanted to, he could re-sign with them. I don’t think the idea is too crazy. You don’t trade him if you are in the hunt, but, if he right offer comes along in early summer and you aren’t going anywhere, it has to be considered.
All depends on if they are contending or not. I think they’ll be close enough to want to make a run at it so I don’t see Scherzer getting dealt. No team though will want Scherzer if the Nats try to get them to take on any of the deferred payments. A 2 month rental will cost around $11.5M for whatever teams takes him. So even if the Nats fall out of contention, moving Max will be difficult.
If I am not mistaken, Scherzer has already been given a QO by Detroit and therefore the Nationals cannot make the offer. If that is the case they should explore dealing him. Although if the Nats believe they can contend in 2022 they should extend him for another two years.
good joke
The guy is a WS winner. Took a cortisone injection to pitch in the WS (and pitched well), pitched the day after getting a broken nose in the REGULAR season when most guys wouldve been happy to go on IL, and he helped turn around their clubhouse, too. He’ll shove his foot up any player he thinks is dogging it (ask Shawn Kelley). Oh, and he’s dominating again when alot of people in this thread previously said he’s washed up.
If the Lerners (right or wrong) nixed a Bryce Harper trade at the deadline, they’re certainly not trading Max.
thou shouldn’t covet
If the Nats put Scherzer on the market they could pretty much have their pick of any team’s farm system but i don’t see them doing it. The Nats can re-sign Max this winter and still have the pieces to be competitive. The bigger concern is is Dave Martinez the guy to keep leading them? He won in 2019 but that was after getting off to a terrible start, his job being publicly speculated in danger, and the team getting hot at the right time. Trading Max isn’t the answer, changing the manager might be
Martinez has managed 76 games since the WS title, but hey, let the finger pointing begin. Despite Wash being out of it as now by 1 game. Because after all, you should question the credentials of a manager whose team won the World Series because it got “hot at the right time” — wtf ?! — suggesting they got “hot at the right time” is to suggest that Washington woke up in September and made a lucky dash thru the postseason When in reality they had the second best record in MLB after May of that season…..enough with the change the manager nonsense.
They can re-sign him this winter even if they do trade him.
This is a surprisingly fun exercise for this early in the season.. I voted no imply because with his contract there would be few buyers and with full 10/5 rights. It’s really up to him, not the Nats.
I guarantee ESPN will postulate that he should go to the Yankees during the Sunday night broadcast.
I think if the Nats are out of it, and I mean like 10 games out of the WC, they ask Max if he’d like to go somewhere to try to win a ring this year. Loyalty is about acting in a player’s best interest