Star shortstops abound in the 2021-22 free agent market, but of all the shortstops slated to hit the open market this winter, Brandon Crawford leads the way in fWAR. In fact, Crawford’s 1.6 fWAR ranks fourth among all shortstops in baseball, as the longtime Giants fixture is enjoying a career year at age 34. Crawford is hitting .256/.336/.543 with 11 homers in 146 plate appearances, with a 138 wRC+ and 144 OPS+ that would both easily be new personal bests if Crawford can keep it going throughout the 2021 season.
Between his unexpectedly strong bat and his still-solid glove, Crawford has been a big part of the Giants’ success to this point. Now in his 11th season in the Bay Area, Crawford “would definitely love to finish my career here with the Giants,” he told Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle. However, “there haven’t been any talks or anything like that. I’m focused on winning the game each night and playing my best throughout the years. These things will fall into place.”
It is still early in the season, of course, but there appears to be some stability in Crawford’s underlying metrics. He ranks in the 90th percentile of all hitters in barrel rate (14.9%), and his hard-hit ball numbers have been on the rise over the last two seasons. Crawford’s .353 xwOBA is above average, and not far below his .372 wOBA.
Crawford told Slusser that the Giants’ coaching staff made some changes to his batting stance and his swing, in an attempt to “keep my swing more on plane for a longer time,” Crawford said. “So you’re able to hit the fastball but then if you’re a little bit out front, you’re able to stay on plane with the baseball a little bit longer and still drive an offspeed pitch.” The result is that Crawford has been crushing four-seam fastballs this season, and he’s generally succeeded against all types of pitches except some below-average numbers against curveballs.
Crawford is in the final season of a six-year, $75MM extension signed in November 2015. For a while, it seemed like this contract was becoming an albatross, as he posted below-average offensive numbers from 2017-19 and even his glovework started to drop off in 2018 and 2019. This season, however, the Giants have gotten quite a bit of production from not only Crawford, but all of the other high-priced veterans (Brandon Belt, Evan Longoria, Johnny Cueto, and Buster Posey) who all seemed to be a decline phase, though Crawford and Belt also hit well in 2020.
It creates an interesting dynamic for Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi, whose quiet rebuild of the team is already starting to bear fruit a bit early, as the Giants are 28-19 in Zaidi’s third season running the front office. Crawford and Belt are free agents and the Giants hold club options on Posey and Cueto for 2022, so the expectation has been that San Francisco would have a ton of salary coming off the books this winter, and plenty of room to spend on some higher-priced upgrades.
While it’s unlikely that all four veterans are back at Oracle Park next season, it stands to reason that the Giants might have interest in retaining at least one of these familiar faces going forward. Slusser writes that Crawford would “certainly consider a hometown-discount type deal,” which could make sense given that Crawford is both a local product (from nearby Mountain View, California) and because he has been so open about being a Giant for life. While there haven’t been any contract talks thus far, Zaidi and GM Scott Harris could be taking a wait-and-see approach with Crawford’s hot start.
If Crawford is open to a below-market contract, that could certainly help his chances of a new deal with the team. Top prospect Marco Luciano is a looming factor, but Luciano is currently in Single-A and doesn’t turn 20 until September, so he still might be a couple of years away from the big leagues. It’s certainly possible to consider a scenario where the Giants re-sign Crawford for another year or two as a bridge to Luciano as the shortstop of the future.
It’s May 24, “leads all SS in MLB” doesn’t mean the same thing as it does in the offseason. If anything, the underperformances from their highly paid old stars is what sunk their last 6 years and SF should avoid anything longer than a year with him.
Walk years seem to bring this out of a lot of guys, lol
Obviously it’s different come the offseason. That’s like saying vehicles drive
Is there a Giants fan who thinks this is anywhere near a good idea?
No
Love Craw, but no.
I love Crawford, but if he doesn’t hit over .250 then I say let him walk. He is hitting well right now and to be quite honest I don’t know who else would play the position next year. I like Dubon in a utility role and I don’t see him as an everyday Shortstop.
Good. They’ll go after Correa.
Giants do not need Correa at any price. Once a cheater always a cheater.
1. Only 26
2. Elite production every year outside 2018
3. Bat plays at 3B
4. Dodger Killer
Doubt Farhan gives a crap about what the Astros did. Those players are still valuable and the goal is to create a winner.
Making room for Luciano
Not necessarily. He’s got a few years until hes ready, and could easily move to 2nd or 3rd as a primary position.
Only 19, doubt he’s a major factor until at least halfway through 2023 to be honest.
Speaking of cheating…
Buster Posey
Brandon Belt
Brandon Crawford
Evan Longoria
All of them are having terrific seasons…. HOW!?
Not cheating, I’ll tell you that
Belt and Crawford are repeating what they did in 2020, in fact Belt has regressed since 2020. Longoria is not having a terrific season. Posey was elite up until 2017, had hip surgery and wasn’t fully healthy in 2018/2019. The off year in 2020 helped his body recover.
And if you want to play the cheating card, Yaz, Dickerson, La Stella, Flores, Casali are all in the midst of their worst career seasons. Seems like a cheap shot.
It’s still May. There’s always teams that jump out to a great start and fizzle out. Same with players.
The 2016 Giants had the best record in baseball at the All-Star break, and then maybe the worst record after that. Still made the postseason, but were then one of the worst teams in baseball the next year as well.
It’s a long season, and Crawford almost certainly will regress.
That was the Matt Duffy effect…a dumb trade and Belt went into the beltism slump where K’s were the norm.
Only one of them is hitting 0ver .260. Lol cheating my ass
Just because they’re better than probably every Rangers player doesn’t mean they’re cheating. Also, Posey is the only one who is swinging really well. Longoria is falling away, Belt isn’t doing very well, and Crawford just has a little bit more consistency than normal while swinging with a little bit more power.
Rangers29:
Usually I like your takes, but this is really disappointing coming from you. Can’t you see how unfair it is, suggesting players are cheating, without an ounce of evidence, just because some guys are having better years?
Is Adolis Garcia cheating since his OPS is the highest this year than it’s ever been at any level? Is Ian Kennedy cheating because he has the highest ERA+ of his career this season (except for the small 3 game sample in 2007). What about Kyle Gibson? his ERA+ is 78 points better than his previous best. Is he cheating?
Come on man. How did you get 3 thumbs up?
@tad2b13
Great response
you’re from texas. enuf said.
The Giants are a mirage. Let’s reconvene at the all star break and reassess. I’m still guessing they’re 15-20 games behind LA and San Diego in the end.
Red hot Padres losing the season series to them…. lol
Hang on, they won’t be 15-20 games behind this season. They’re 1-2 games behind 1st place right now so relax
Luciano only 19, looked lost in ST..won’t be ready for 2 years. Lock up craw for 2
Will Luciano’s final position be shortstop? Honestly asking. He’s built more like a 3B or COF than a SS.
He looked pretty solid at short during ST. They’re gonna try to keep him there. They been saying it’s been looking better for him.
By what barometer? Even if his UZR has been good, he’s committed 11 errors in 31 games in A ball.
@myaccount
Those errors you are citing were from rookie ball when he was 17.
Errors are a terrible metric. If a lot of errors meant you were a bad fielder, Ozzie Smith wouldn’t be in the HoF. UZR isn’t much better. I’d look at DRS and OAA, but not sure Statcast or Fangraphs has those available for MiL players.
But, scouting reports on Luciano have him as a plus defender, with no reason to think he should be moved to different position.
3 for 23 and 15 Ks? Not ready for prime time player. And why rush him? All the other giant babies gonna need a daddy and some stability up the middle
Luciano doesn’t look so good in A ball either; the lost year to COVID looks to have affected his development; I think Luciano is a 2023 player at the earliest; 2024 more likely.
A 2 year deal for Crawford looks possible; though I think what the Giants do at second may influence that. Dubon is probably slated to platoon with LaStella but he can also play shortstop and would be a fraction of the cost.
I think the Giants make a strong offer to one of the young FA SS. Could be Story time in the bay. Teams accumulate as much talent as possible these days and figure out the positions later.
Would hate to see him in any other uniform but we definitely need to improve at SS, although if he keeps raking then that will be back to back good year and he’s still a great defender but idk
I’d like too see them splurge on Story or Seager, just because it weakens other NL West opponents. I also wouldn’t mind Correa or another year or two of Crawford.
Seager solid hitter but he ain’t a quality SS….he is a 3B playing SS
At age 34 it’s unlikely any extension for Crawford would be for more than 2 years anyway. The Giants could probably go with Dubon at SS next season and have Luciano ready in ’23. I don’t see them going big on a free agent though if the price is right I’m sure Farhan wouldn’t mind taking Seager from the Dodgers
yep agreed Crawford good guy but he is in the decline and at 35 and beyond he is not going to get better. Time to move on to younger giants now.
I feel like a 1 year/$10M or 2 year/$20M contract would be acceptable and appropriate given that it may be another year or two until their prospects are ready for prime time and they’d probably sign someone else of similar productivity and defensive value to a similarly priced contract anyway, so they might as well retain Crawford at that rate.
I find it unlikely he’s willing to take a paycut from his $15M salary if he keeps up production.
No need to extend him. Been there done that.
Feel Story would be a good fit in SF. Personally I take him over the others unless I got an equitable deal for Correa and his injury risk.
Its funny how contract years bring out players best years. Giants should not do another signing based off a contract year…he will fall back to his 2019-2020 seasons soon enough.
To quote Bill Walsh: Better to let a FA walk a year to early than be stuck with ’em years too late.
Giants should not be banking on Luciano in the near future. Absolutely lost at the plate and committing errors at SS at a scary rate… and doing so in only A ball. Wouldn’t surprise me if he’s one of those top prospects who ends up being replacement level.
myaccount
“…committing errors at SS at a scary rate…”
In a small sample, Luciano has committed 4 errors in 131 2/3 innings.
Exaggerate much?
Generally Crawford is a .245 hitter with a .310 OBP, 15 Home runs with fairly elite defense. Last years was his best OPS+ wise and this year he might hit 30 home runs and his defense is better than ever. If they can lock him up at 1/10 or 2/18 in my opinion that’s far preferable to way overpaying for one of the “Big 3”. Bottom line is Crawdaddy is outperforming the “Big 3” so far and is way outperforming Lindor.
Luciano is 19 and will likely be ready in 2024 when he is 22. Will Wilson looks great in Hi-A.
Agree with resigning Crawford but Luciano was signed at 17 so will need to brought up at 21 at the latest.
It’s time for the Giants to rebuild….Many veterans will be free agents….
They are rebuilding. Why do you think Farhan and Co. are bringing in all these low cost/risk veterans?
would prefer the giants to build from within. the list of high priced free agents (non pitcher) that have crashed and burned is long and distinguished. most teams other than the Yankees can’t afford to miss. how would you like to be the Mets right now. lindor has.189 BA with a .572 ops. bring up our guys and fill in with veterans similar to 2010, 2012 and 2014.
A ridiculous topic. It’s May and you want to talk about extending a shortstop for his age 35 season?
Right now the Lindor extension looks like an unmitigated disaster. His OPS+ has tumbled four straight seasons and he is being paid over 34 million for 10 seasons starting next year. I’ll take Crawford for two more seasons, thank you very much.