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Click here to read the transcript of tonight’s live baseball chat.
MLB Trade Rumors is not affiliated with Major League Baseball, MLB or MLB.com
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How much for the Scherzer in the window?
About tree fiddy
I kept asking the same question but Mark Polishuk seems to be the only chat host who never ever answers me. I know he’s not a free agent until after next season but considering the unprecedented season he has had and the fact no one like him has ever hit the free agent market: How big will Shohei Ohtani’s free agent contract be? Will the Angels even be able to keep him after paying Trout and Rendon $650+ million? I can see Ohtani getting close to $20 million a year as a pitcher and over $30 million as a hitter. I think $50 million AAV is reasonable for him and at his age I think 10-12 years is reasonable as well. I think he could shatter the record with a half billion to $600+million contract. Why is no one talking about this? This is the closest thing we have ever seen to Babe Ruth hitting the market today. The biggest difference really is that Ruth decided to stop pitching. Ohtani is not going to do that so he still has really solid value as a pitcher on top of his MVP caliber bat. Anyone else have a guess since Mark Polishuk won’t answer?
He needs to put up some consistent numbers to get into that stratosphere of contracts. Super talented but he can’t be full time on both ends for too long.
He answered someone. Seems to think the team is likely planning for the exorbitant amount an extension will cost.
Yeah I didn’t get that. he said the Angels had it “earmarked.” How can you say the Ohtani money was earmarked? He was nowhere near this good before this season started. How would the Angels earmark that amount of money so quickly? When working with a luxury tax I think it takes more time to come up with several hundred million dollars than that. It certainly wasn’t in the plan to spend that kind of money on Ohtani when they were handing out the Trout and Rendon extensions. The Angels already owe more money to players than any team in the league. That shows me the money wasn’t earmarked at all. They had no clue his value would skyrocket this high. If you earmark money you spend less in the meantime because you know you are going to have to spend more on Ohtani later. That is the opposite of what the Angels have done. Just look a Cott’s baseball contracts. Even without Ohtani, the Angels are by far the most in debt team in the league.
Ohtani has been really good for 1/2 of a season.
True. But he has been REALLY REALLY good. Like best player in baseball and one of the best first half’s of anyone in MLB history good. That’s kind of my point though. Ohtani is a free agent after next season and he has basically been an unplanned revelation at this point. How could the Angels have the kind of money they never expected him to earn already “earmarked?” No one (including the Angels) expected him to be this good so when exactly did they “earmark” the money? If it was recently then that doesn’t really count as “earmarked.” That just means they realized he was going to be super expensive at the exact same time the rest of the league did… which doesn’t help the Angels at all.
Cmon. The angels have thought he was this good since they signed him.
You really don’t think the angels knew when his contract ended? You don’t think they had a guess what his next contract would look like, and have prepared?
Maybe he didn’t answer you because you don’t know what you’re talking about?
Ohtani is a free agent after 2024, not 2022. The Angels don’t have to worry about an extension right now, so why would they, especially given the incredible first half he just had?
They signed Rendon and Trout to those deals because of the timing. It’s also possible to have several large contracts on the books, especially in a market as big as Southern California.
Wait, what? He’s put up 6 fwar if you combine hitting and pitching through 98 games. That’d be 9.92 if you prorated it to 162 games. While that is a very, very good season and definitely will result in him getting PAID if he’s able to continue it, let’s not start talking about him having one of the best first halfs ever. There is a player on his team who has probably put up better first halfs in his career (I’d need to look at the splits for Trout to be sure, but I’m lazy).
Nice try succubus
What’s a realistic return looking like for Craig Kimbrel?
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Gonna be honest, the Frazier return isn’t as bad as many are painting it out to be. Marcano has arguably the best hand eye coordination in the minor leagues. He has the potential to be David Fletcher 2.0 but with a little more OBP, which is something I’ll easily take for Frazier. Heck, if he adds just a little power, maybe even early career /Baltimore Orioles Nick Markakis (though I will admit that is a bit optimistic).
To me, the return seemed a little light on paper. Why wouldn’t it? An average prospect for an all-star. But I think everyone’s recentcy bias is talking. He had a 100 wRC+/99 OPS+ from 2016 to 2020. His underlying numbers say he’s a better batter this year than in 2016-2020, but not by a whole lot. Teams aren’t going to bet on 2/3’rds of a season over 1804 plate appearances, especially when that 2/3rd’s of a season has a bunch of things saying it’s more like the 1804 plate appearances.
Overall, I think the people saying that this is just as bad as the Archer trade or the Pirates got absolutley fleeced are overblowing it. There’s a lot to like about Marcano that the bottom line numbers just don’t tell you. The other peices are nice throw ins. I think Suwinski will be a Hunter Renfore-like player. Good for power, good fielder with a strong arm and some sneaky athleticism. Maybe a bit of a higher OBP than Renfore, but same kind of power output. Every team has about 10 Miliano’s somewhere. Reliever who can strikeout just about anyone, but will walk 3 batters every outing. Might have a bit of a higher ceiling because FanGraphs projects his command at 50.
PIT did what rebuilding teams should do and sold high on a guy that has peak value right now, who has only had above a 100 OPS+ once before (in 352 PA/113 games in 2018). He’ll be 30 in Dec 2021, so it’s not like he’s hitting his prime, by most accounts. Good for them to not overplay their hand and make this any more difficult than it needed to be.
I agree. I think the return is fine. Looks meh on paper, but once you do some digging, you’ll see that it’s better than it looks. Frazier is what he is at this point and less than 500 plate appearances weren’t going to change that. I get it wasn’t for some glamorous prospect package, but overall I think it was fair. Maybe a bit lighter on the Pirates end, but not even close to a fleecing. If this trade is made after 2020, everyone would see this as fair, or even a good trade on the Pirates’ side. A lot of people just tunnel-vision to batting average and make a decsion based on that and that alone.
I think it’s a great trade for the Pirates. Frazier does nothing for their short term prospects, so get what you can for him. And in their case, kick in some cash and get what you really want for him.
Even if it doesn’t pan out, it’s the idea that counts here. Again, Frazier doesn’t do a thing for the team’s chances currently, they’re just really bad. Stock up on prospects for what players don’t fit your window, and bravo to them for especially selling high.
Ben Cherington’s track record with both the Red Sox and Jays working with prospects is excellent.
When at the beginning a rebuild like the Pirates are in now, FO’s are playing a numbers game. It’s futile to evaluate 3 young players that were brought in for an established veteran having a career year and then trying to figure out who “won” the trade. Rather over the rebuild there are going to be a number of trades, draft choices and signings. All a FO can do is pile up the players, give them the best training possible, challenge them to grow, and give them playing time. What you’re trying to do is to develop a core of maybe 7-12 guys that will be major leaguers, some of whom will be superior players, some of whom will be solid players, some of whom will be platoon/part-time contributors. Add those to existing players – the Pirates already have maybe 5 solid guys on their ML roster that may well be there in 3-4 years as the rebuild takes hold, and fill in around them.
Look at a team that had a successful rebuild such as the Astros and compare them to a team that had an unsuccessful rebuild such as the Phillies. It takes time to realize which players good and bad came from which trades, signings, and draft choices. The only ones people remember are the players that made it. And from that keep in mind that players are ever evolving, good and bad. What separates the quality rebuilds from the poor ones is how many players can be contributors within their 6 year window, knowing that a team will lose due to free agency.
If you read scouting reports on him, they’re not optimistic about him being able to add power. I think FGs has him as a 40FV prospect. It’s not great, but like you said, neither was Walker until this year. He probably won’t end up being as good as Walker long term, but they have him for 6 years and the way he’ll contribute should make him a cheap arbitration player as well, so it doesn’t seem awful.
Even though he’s under a pretty good contract through 2027, could Cub David Bote become a bargaining chip this year?
Why would the Cubs trade Bryant and Kimbrel but not Rizzo, Baez and Davies???? If they trade Bryant and Kimbrel they are effectively punting on 2021 and Rizzo, Baez and Davies are free agents at the end of the season too. For me it’s all or nothing with trading Rizzo, Bryant, Davies and Baez.
It’s a gamble not to trade them all, but they’d be gambling on the players they hope to re-sign. Cubs seem to think they can reload rather than tear it completely down and rebuild, and it’s possible they can.
If anything, they might be thinking what a lot of us have been for years: they won a title, but the team just isn’t meshing anymore.
But I think it’s just as likely that their mindset is to bring back the popular guys if possible, claim they’re reloading, sign some players that don’t really move the needle or replace the true outgoing talent, and claim they’re a contender for 2022. And when it doesn’t work (because they need more than they have right now, let alone what they could add in 2022), they can still kick the can down the road while pretending they tried to reload and win another ring.
I would’ve said that they want to keep certain fan favorites solely for attendance purposes, but that’s not really a concern. The fans will show up regardless for the Cubs, based on past history.
“It’s a gamble not to trade them all, but they’d be gambling on the players they hope to re-sign.”
Nice try. Trading them doesn’t mean you can’t re-sign them. See Hammel, Jason and Chapman, Aroldis.
Again, trade all or none of Rizzo, Baez, Bryant and Davies. Not just Bryant. Not all but Rizzo. All or nothing.
I’d imagine their willingness to trade people probably depends on the demand for them. As far as Baez is concerned, I wouldn’t be totally opposed to them keeping him, QO-ing him and seeing if he can remember how to make contact next season and flipping him then (assuming he even accepts the QO). Look what Walker brought back, Baez likely brings back less than that. So, maybe it’s not the worst gamble to take.
If they really think they can reload, I’m going to be very annoyed. Unless Ricketts decides he’s going to run out a $300m payroll each year, they’re gonna be one of those teams that’s perpetually in 3rd place. Their system isn’t strong, their ML roster isn’t strong, However, I’m not sure I’d agree that they feel this way though, judging by the age of the players they got back in return for Darvish.
But all that said, I agree with you. Tear it completely down, load up on as many prospects as you can get.
Or you might as well go all in with what you have and what you can acquire, if you’re not going to cash in on all those guys. This obviously is pretty poor idea, given the state of things in Wrigleyville, but if you’re not really going to sell, why not go for it, odds be damned?
To the dude that was whining about the Phillies having -23 runs scored margin – the Barves beat them 15-3 Saturday night. That’s over half of said negative differential.
Run differential is about as meaningful a statistic as pitch framing – much ado about nothing…….
In the 15-3 loss, the Phillies had Ronald Torreyes give up 4 runs. We’re seeing more and more position players pitching late in lost games, as well as teams leaving their crummy pitchers in for extended periods of lost games as they try to rest their overburdened better arms for future games they can win.
Along the same lines, there are individual hitting statistics that are inflated at these times. I’d suspect that ML FO’s have developed computer systems to break these instances down, but general statistics such as Run Differential are what the public sees. Along those same lines, it’s quite difficult to find easily available (and free) statistics on RISP – in general and broken down by number of outs and how many runners on 2nd and/or 3rd base…..to which one needs to add if the game was still in play or out of hand.
Back to Run Differential – small market / small ball teams such as the Rays, Brewers, Indians, etc. are fine with winning games by one run. Their strategies are geared to that. It’s why the casual fan can’t figure out why they win with what appears to be ordinary offensive statistics.
On good teams, position players don’t pitch much.…
You realize the Rays, Brewers and Indians all have some of the best run differentials of the last few years, right? Along with the dodgers..
Samuel,
Run differential is a better predictor of future performance than W-L record.
And pitch framing matters.
You can stick your head in the sand and ignore/fight progress, but you’ll just be left behind.
I always get a kick out of chatter’s ridiculous trade proposals!