The Twins and franchise cornerstone Byron Buxton have been unable to come to terms on a contract extension, increasing the likelihood of a full-scale sell-off before Friday’s trade deadline. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal and Dan Hayes report that the Twins’ initial offer was for $73MM over seven years with an unspecified number of incentives. The Twins “increased the guarantee slightly,” but not enough to come to a long-term agreement. The final guarantee increased to $80MM, tweets The Athletic.
The end result here is not surprising, given the muddled valuation process for a talent like Buxton. When he’s at his best, he’s one of the best players in the game, a five-tool player capable of anchoring a first-division lineup on both sides of the ball from a premium position. The injury concerns, however, have limited his contributions and saddled him with a tricky long-term risk profile.
This season perfectly illustrated the dichotomy of Buxton as a team-building asset. In 27 games, he made 110 trips to the plate and accrued an insane 2.7 fWAR with a .369/.409/.767 line, good for a 217 wRC+. But 27 games of MVP-caliber production from Buxton wasn’t enough to keep the Twins anywhere near contention. They currently have a 0.0% chance to make the playoffs, per Fangraphs.
Buxton went on the injured list with a hip strain from May 7th to June 16th, by which point Minnesota’s shot at the playoffs was already slim to nil. He was back for less than a week before breaking his hand and returning to the injured list. Because he’s still out, there’s very little chance that the Twins might move Buxton now.
Instead, they’ll wait for the offseason and re-evaluate. Even just one season of a healthy Buxton ought to pique the interest of a few teams around the league who might be willing to take a chance on keeping him healthy.
The question now is whether Minnesota’s inability to lock up Buxton long-term will push them to be more aggressive in offloading assets like Jose Berrios and Taylor Rogers. Both are under team control through 2022, like Buxton. Both are key cogs in a potential contender in 2022, like Buxton.
With Nelson Cruz already gone and the rest of the present-day roster not looking much like a contender, the Twins may already doubt their chances to battle an increasingly indomitable White Sox team next season.
If Berrios ultimately gets moved in the next week, we’ll know the Twins’ thoughts about next season. If he stays, the Twins may be preparing for one final run with Berrios and Buxton under contract. Either way, it’s looking increasingly likely that Buxton’s long-term future resides somewhere other than Minnesota — where he can tantalize and frustrate a different fanbase.
I know it has no correlation but maybe a change of scenery could keep him healthy and on the field more often so we could see what he could do in a full season. The sky is the limit with his talent and it’s a shame we’ve never seen a complete healthy season from him.
Do bones break less easily outside of Minnesota?
You’re right, that’s why I said it had no correlation. Geography obviously isn’t a factor. Just a hypothetical scenario like Griffey Jr being much healthier in Seattle than he was in Cincinnati. Obviously his age had a lot more to do with that though.
New team can mean new training regimes, new recovery methods, new dietary options, etc.
Not saying Minnesota falls short in any of those regards or that he’ll suddenly play 162 with a team team, but that sometimes a new voice, coach, trainer, etc. can unlock something in a player whether it be health, cultural, or performance.
Maybe cold weather issue? Especially for a player from georgia
Aaron Hicks on line 1. He’s a more talented Aaron Hicks. No one should give him more than 3 years. The Yankees thought hey were getting a discount, but then Hicks basically did his Ellsbury impression and vanished.
Had it just been the broken bone this season (or any other), no one would be saying anything about it. But Buxton has played in just 38% of the games he should have since being called up. He contributes more to the St. Paul Saints than he does the Minnesota Twins. He wants $25mm per season…? that seems like a lot to pay a minor leaguer completing a rehab assignment. Maybe someone like the Yankees have that kind of money, but the Twins don’t.
Got milk? Maybe Buxton needs more vitamin D to keep his bones from becoming brittle and breaking. I remember many business trips into MSP made my bones feel brittle years ago….
Hoping to see him in a Giants uniform along with that pitcher Berrios.
You can have Buxton but I think we need to figure out how to keep Berrios.
Not a shocker that they could not make a deal. From Buxton perspective, he is a good player. From the team perspective, he doesn’t play enough.
The poverty Twins are basically just the Tampa Bay Rays without any of the scouting talent and just a better ballpark.
…and a payroll consistently over $120MM. I know, I know. I shouldn’t feed the trolls.
Difference is the twins have a fan base and make money but the owners peach “small market” which they’re not
They’re a mid-market team and their payroll is generally in the middle of the pack.
Better ballpark? Now that’s the understatement of the year. The worst in MLB by far.
Target Field is the worst ballpark in MLB by far? Whatcha drinking there, buddy?
HAHAHAHA – you ever been to Target Field or do you just enjoy smoking crack and posting stupid crap?
You guys don’t seem to understand my post. I wrote that the only thing the twins have going for them is a better ballpark.
Still no confirmation on the number of years the offer was for, but I suspect it was 7 years at this point. The Rosenthal reported the Twins went to $80MM guaranteed. Turning down $80MM plus incentives… that’s a bold move for Buxton.
Pretty terrible offer when guys like Sano and Kepler are making 10+ million for doing next to nothing.
Except that if history proves prophetic, Buxton plays less than half a player each season.
The difference with Buxton is that none of his injuries are related. Most “injury prone” guys have a recurring injury. Buxton just finds a new way to get hurt every year, This history would typically give teams the impression he will stay healthy.
From what I can tell, even nonrecurring injuries take an overall toll on the player’s longevity. For a guy that’s as as dependent on his athleticism as Buxton is to produce at his best, I’d be weary to offer him anything more than what the twins did…assuming decent incentives/escalators.
Kepler only makes 6.5 mil a year not 10+. Sano I will give you is really over paid but his trash ass will be cut after the season cause he isn’t worth crap for trade value and he never will be. In Buxtons case he probably is worth more than their offer but not much. Anything more than 15 mil a year until he can prove he can stay on the field is too much of a risk. If I were guessing though Buxton probably believes he is worth 20-25 mill+ and any team to give him that would be risking way too much. I love watching him play for my Twins but we need pitching and leadership and he is neither.
Except Kepler makes $6.5M, close, but no cigar.
Next to nothing; except playing FAR more often than Buxton does. Since 2018 here are the games they have played:
Sano = 305
Kepler = 404
Buxton = 181
Is it more valuable to be on the field or on IR?
When healthy, dude will be well worth $$$. His injuries are really hampering down the contract floor from the twins perspective. He will be paid handsomely by someone else. Really hope he’s not jacoby ellsbury 2.0
So far he is
Exactly. And he’s been worth $24 million this year alone despite playing a month and a half. Even injured he’s worth a ton, but expecting people to understand the math is a bit of a pipe dream.
“And he’s been worth $24 million this year alone despite playing a month and a half.”
The funny thing is……I think you’re serious.
Do you know how many pitchers they could have bought with $24M this year?
I think he is considering the WAR/$$ value which is a logically fair evaluation
I want the twins to extend him. The offer was fair given his injury history, but in reality his production was lights out amazing in April, but over his career he has been inconsistent.
The risk and reward is very high, but I think he is too high of a risk to drop anything more than $15 million a year on.
Maybe ten years from now after the Twins trade him, he will end up being the next big one that got away like David Ortiz.
I think though as much as I want the Twins to keep him, we should not overpay as a medium market team. Joe Mauer had a great career but after his mega contract he dropped off and we could not afford the pieces we needed to be competitive. Mauer was a lower risk but concussions got the better of him. Buxton is a high risk and it’s clear we need many pieces to compete effectively in the playoffs. Pitching wins championships and we don’t have it.
He was “healthy” for one season. In 2017 he played in 140 games (still got hurt that season). his line was .253/.314/.413 that has been it. Everyone wants to send him to Cooperstown for what he did for 27 games this season. Pump the brakes and see if he can even get on the field for 100 games during a season, for the rest of his career.
The CF the Jays should’ve been on this off-season.
You feel like gamblin’? One full year at .253? This guy can’t stay on the field. Let’s address the obvious, go get’em Yankees!
@Curly –
I’ve seen this kid play out here. He is: Really Good. Absolutely worth the price of admission. & he has a skill set that would address some real flaws on the Yanks.
But it would be cool to have a CF who plays at least 100 games/year. & I have to seriously question whether Buxton will ever do that.
Fantastically talented player. He just can’t seem to stay on the field though.
Kevin Kiermaier for Buxton, straight up.
Yes, I am kidding. Or am I?
This is why WAR is misleading–KK has almosy twice the war as Buxton, in only one extra year. Yes, injuries, but KK has been injured plenty as well.
Who would you rather have as yr CF? Of course. So please, quit drinking the war kool aid. It is a subjective statistic that is quite misleading. (Let the outrage begin)
Yes, KK has almost twice as many at bats–which would make the two roughly the same in war if the same AB’s. I am a KK fan, but still…I’d take BB any day.
And this logic ignores completely that war is a “counting” stat so total at bats of course matter. You have to count buxton plus whoever his replacement is for the 80 games to KK’s WAR. Nobody in their right mind would say “look his war is slightly higher overall so we want him…” this is just a straw mans argument at its best.
Well, just to get it out of the way, I don’t think WAR is a perfect stat that should be the end all-be all for comparing or judging players, although I do think it has its uses. It’s like any statistic in that it can be misused. But I think you need to justify why Buxton is better for that line of criticism of the stat to really be justified. Buxton passing the eye test or putting up good offensive numbers in less than a full season’s worth of games doesn’t really cut it.
Honestly, I think if Buxton had managed to consistently stay on the field at all, there’s a reasonable chance he’d be ahead.
WAR has problems with how it’s calculated, I won’t argue that However, it’s not misleading, it’s describing the performance those players provided in those previous years. If you choose to ignore how those players got to those performance numbers and then try to project the future, while still ignoring the how….yeah, it’s not real great. But it’s not WAR’s fault if you choose to be ignorant.
You’re basically arguing that WAR is bad because it doesn’t match your preconception.
Totally not what kirk or kevin said. You were rude for no reason. Its that there are other stats that are important and not one stat to decide everything. Considering that there is no one way to calculate it and various formulas are used it should not be the end all be all. If i go scout a high school player do i watch him or ask whats his war?
Well, the reply was to sideline and not Kirk, so it’d make sense that it wasn’t related to what Kirk said. Good try though, keep editing your post.
Still not what sideline said either. Keep working on reading comprehension.
I think this is an issue of you using WAR correctly. If I used your thinking I should prefer Albert Pujols over Fernando Tatis. What you’re doing is rebutting a view that few have. Anyone who knows how to use WAR is going to look a players previous three seasons as having greater weight (as well as other mitigations) than looking at their total WAR.
Really too bad; guy’s worth the price of admission watching him play. Great in-game skills too.
But I get that a mid market team can’t afford to take a chance, especially when some of their other long term deals may have been, to be kind, ill advised.
Yeah, he’s going to be a tremendous addition for a large market team that can surround him with enough talent that it’s not a back breaker if he goes down. He’s gifted, he’s just been snakebit with the injuries
Like just getting over a contract that paid a catcher $25mm per season, only to have him move to 1b and become an average fielding first basemen that barely hit double digit HR’s a season. Yep, I’d say the Twins are a little apprehensive to pull that trigger again.
4 yrs 60M probably gets it done.
It’s risky, but if he gets and stays healthy it’s worth it, and if not it’s not a long-term investment. This also allows him to hit the market again at the age of 31.
Byron Buxton is a really cool new way to spell Jacoby Ellsbury
Ellsbury had more boots to the ground.
Twins dodged a bullet. This dude never going to put together a healthy productive season. Buxton should have jumped at that offer. Nobody else going to come close to that.
Straight nonsense. He will at the very least beat that AAV but not likely total years.
If he’s not on the field, it’s the truth. Past IS a predictor of the future. Remind me how old Buxton is again? Oh and at what age doe players begin to deteriorate?
Lol josh Donaldson is worth 23 million a year with similar injury risks as a 35+ year old but they offer buxton 11 million a year?
Even if he plays 80 games he’s the teams most valuable player by a wide margin. It’s been a really bad year for the twins front office, if they decide to sell they better finally make a good in season trade or this team will stay near the bottom for years again.
Similar injury risks? Buxton has averaged 65 games a year since he came up his age 21-27 seasons. Donaldson has averaged 117 since he broke out in 2013, and he was 27 at that time. Bux has all the talent in the world but he can stay healthy and hasn’t exactly been consistent at the plate either.
When Donaldson was signed he’d played 113, 52 and 155 games over his past three seasons, and had a well known calf injury that had kept him injured plenty.
Buxton played 39 games last year but that’s in a 60 game season. He played 141 games in 2016 between aaa and mlb. He played 140 games in 2017.
Donaldson may not be an equal injury risk overall but he certainly was when he signed and has been just as injured seemingly having to dh every other day.
The fact that it’s the same front office valuing Donaldson that much higher than buxton is worrisome for any fan.
@ sportsguy033;
Think you’re stretching things to make a point.
Donaldson was fine playing a year for Atlanta in the NL – no DH – and is an above average 3B. He’s only DH’ed 5 games this year with 69 at 3B – that’s not “seemingly having to dh every other day”. That DH’ing can be attributed to Cruz being traded and their wanting to look at some of their infielders at 3B as the Twins prepare to make plans for the 2022 roster.
Buxton has taken a lot of years to mature as a player. Sometimes that happens with guys. It can be a flash or he may play well through to his mid-to-late 30’s. No one knows. What we do know is that he’s constantly injured, and whereas injuries heal, there are still long-term effects on the body as affected tissues amd bones degenerate.
The situation with Mr. Buxton’s injuries and his production has to do with him and him alone. It has nothing to do with MLB FO’s or bylaws.
Exactly, they are not the same injury risk. Buxton has proven to be far less durable.
Donaldson was coming off an excellent season in which he had 155 games under his belt and was a free agent. Buxton has never played that many games and last time he was close was 2017 and doesn’t haven’t nearly the performance track record Donaldson had. He also won’t be a free agent until next offseason.
So we have a case where a player who is less durable, far less of a track record and is not a free agent for more than a year. Can’t imagine why they offered him less.
Heck, as I recall Buxton came up to the majors late because he was out for a season in the minors due to injury.
Buxton is a never ending injury machine. That’s about it. Always hurt. Game predicated on speed and he is about to start losing that also. On top of this, you better have one or two backup cf’s on your 40 man to replace him with when he gets hurt, and he will. And yes, he missed time in the minors every year also. Injuries crashing into walls. Injuries diving for the ball. Concussions. Migraines. Broken bones. Pulled hamstrings. Just never ending. Someone will be stupid and pay him for his six week stretch earlier this year. Good luck with that.
Donaldson can, in fact DH. That is part of his game. Also, he is a gold glove 3B and former MVP. That is what provides him his value. Buxton’s value is supposed to be his 5 tool ability… you know, the running and throwing parts added in there. Yep, Donaldson tweaks a calf, he may miss a couple of games then need to DH while still producing his .270 AVG with 34 HR season. Buxton average for 162 game season is .247 AVG with 22 HR. Problem is; HE HAS NEVER PLAYED MORE THAN 140 GAMES IN A SEASON. And he did that just once. Donaldson has played 155 games, or more in a season 5 times during his 11 year career. If he does it this year (80 games played so far out of 100 total games) that would make it 50% of the time, you get a FULL season out of Donaldson.
Do you see the valuation, now?
What do you all think is the best case scenario with Buxton in free agency? Let’s say he comes back this year and continues his amazing season and then stays healthy next year and is a contender for MVP.
Incredible talent but would any team guarantee him $100 million +, even in that best case scenario? With his injury history and age, that seems a little unlikely to me.
I really think the best deal for both sides would be a “show me” type 1-2 year deal with health incentives, but I also don’t really blame him for aiming high. There’s plenty of history to show that teams will overpay for potential (and just plain overpay).
Unless he has some sort of career ending injury he’ll make more than $80 million over 7 years even signing one year deals. A team like the dodgers loves the short term high salary deals.
Andrelton Simmons got $10 million for 1 year this year coming off a very poor 2020 and with minimal history of offensive production.
3 years and 55 million or so isn’t out of the question even if he doesn’t stay healthy; if he stays healthy he should surpass 80 million on a 5 year pact in an absolute worst case scenario.
Just look at some of the free agent deals over the past few seasons for players that aren’t as productive as even an injured buxton —- a healthy buxton is a legitimate mvp candidate even if it never happens. Would you rather pay JA Happ and Alex colome fifteen million dollars for one year or buxton?
Depending on what the incentives in his contract were, he could have stood to make more than $80m over those 7 years with the twins too, if he could have stayed healthy. Buxton will be 29 for his first FA season, how many more years do you think he’ll still be a good cfer? A passable CFer? He’s a much less attractive player as a COF.
He should be grateful that they offer him anything. He hasn’t done squat to earn extension
He’s shown everyone how great he is at getting injured.
Bring him on board Marlins
Yankees with Sano? Kepler Cardinals?
Players like Buxton, Strasburg, etc, are why HGH should be legal for all athletes. This s**** is nothing more than entertainment anyway: everybody wins when the best players are able to play their best…
They should all get cranked up on speed before the games too
Like the idea. If one guys uses it and the other doesnt though, does the management pay less for the HGH guy if they have the same production?
Find a franchise with money to burn.
Can’t see any team in MLB offering him a contract that’s not tied to incentives for games played and anything else related to being on the field that can legally be put into a contract.
This guy getting hurt on a long-term contract is very good way for multiple FO people that oversee the contract to pretty much lose their careers.
Low-balling Buxton while he’s injured is not a good way to reach an agreement when he’s healthy
How do you know they’re low-balling him?
How do you know they don’t want to wash their hands of him?
One thing is for sure – I’d suggest that he’s taken in far more in salary from the Twins than he produced on the field. Sorry he keeps getting injured, but truth be told, the money they paid him would have been best spent elsewhere on other players.
At some point an organization has to stop the bleeding.
They offered him good money for the 60 games a year he plays in and the fact you have to build a roster of outfielders to fill in for him when he goes down. Let him leave. He had a good six week stretch to start the year. I’m not gonna ignore the borderline horrendous injury history and the rest of his body of work at the plate.
Yeah 70 million for a guy who has 630 plate appearances since the start of 2018 isn’t a lowball offer at all.
Sorry that was supposed to say *80* million
They want to sell tickets .. so they’ll try to upgrade to be ” competitive”.. That is their word… that is their goal.. to be competitive… its a ticket selling plan.. Winners want to win.. they go all out to win.. they plan to win.. they work to win.. the Dynamic Duo must think that that participation trophy is meaningful in Minnesota.. beside if the Dynamic Duo isn’t fired ( which they should be after 5 years of not building anything of importance).. I think they are under contract thru next year… so they get 1 more chance to Please the Po’lads…. and that they stated from the beginning is their only real goal… and that is a fact..
He’s a nine figure player with a five figure medical history
Five figure amount of injuries
Guy’s worth the price of admission? He plays less than I do. I rather watch the kiss cam at minute maid than watch buxton collect a check. The twins are lucky if he thinks hes worth more.
Is there something about the Minute Maid kiss cam or just cause your a Stros fan?
Glass Buxton will be traded and a week later go on the DL
Buxton is a never ending injury machine. That’s about it. Always hurt. Game predicated on speed and he is about to start losing that also. On top of this, you better have one or two backup cf’s on your 40 man to replace him with when he gets hurt, and he will. And yes, he missed time in the minors every year also. Injuries crashing into walls. Injuries diving for the ball. Concussions. Migraines. Broken bones. Pulled hamstrings. Just never ending. Someone will be stupid and pay him for his six week stretch earlier this year. Good luck with that.
Twinkies are delusional if they seriously believed that either Buxton or his agent would even consider their offer, no matter how drunk the team got both of them !!
Well, is he the player that his net career stats say he is….quite valuable but not a superstar, or is he the 2021 version? Twins can’t pay up for his “historical” performance because it’s not worth huge money. For the 2021 version, the offer is laughably low
What constitutes a cornerstone of a franchise? He’s only played 100 games in a season once. Sub .250 hitter. Talk about hype. He’s a poor man’s BJ Upton. Why is this news.
Welcome to the Mets Buxton and bring your friend Berrios, the Mets will give the Twins : Mauricio,Szapucki,Lee,Dominguez and either one of those players the Mets picked up this week. Buxton and Berrios will replace Conforto and Stroman next year.
What idiot GM is going to overpay for him? Nobody is going to give him more than what the twins offered and any contract he’s given is going to be incentive laden just like the contract he just rejected. You can’t give guaranteed money to a glass player. More than likely he just cost them self a ton of money. Maybe not. But I wouldn’t want my team signing him for any amount of money. It’s a waste of a roster spot when the guy comes back for 10 games at a time before he goes back on the IL. He is today’s games Rich Harden when it comes to being injured
Steve Nebraska stated that Buxton finds a different way to get injured rather than having a recurring injury. I was going to post on this article earlier but this gave me pause so I looked at his injury history to confirm or deny this statement.
2021 left hand fracture (hit by pitch) hip strain
2020 Left Shoulder, left foot, concussion
2019 Wrist contusion, left should dis.
2018 Migraine, fractured toe, strained wrist
2017 Groin strain, migraine
It’s not obviously clear that he has a specific issue here unless maybe you want to say the left side of his body is a lemon. His injuries are literally from head to toe though it does seem he has his migraines under control as that hasn’t sent him to the injury list since 2018 so I’m somewhat inclined to agree with Nebraska.
There is one thing that sticks out to me though. With all the injuries to the left side of his body; left foot, left hand, left shoulder TWICE you might wonder if the Twins front office doesn’t want to commit large dollars because they’re concerned that all the injuries to different parts of his body but especially to his left side, is going to cause early regression. Having your left foot, wrist, hand and shoulder compromised (in addition to the rest) sounds like something that COULD cause problems at the plate.
I usually say stick with your guy, but it’s perhaps time to see what kind of value they can get in return. His injury history will have teams gambling on him for at least 4 more years. The hope would be getting at least one fully healthy season from him from whom ever that might be.
That’s a pretty solid figure considering how little he’s been on the field. He’s amazing when he’s healthy, but there were 45 guys who got more plate appearances JUST in 2018 than Buxton had had since the start of the 2018 season. He’s insane if he thinks he’s worth any more than this offer.
@ phantomofdb;
Above I pointed out that maybe the Twins want to move on from him.
Well, maybe he wants to move on from the Twins.
Would probably be best for all concerned…..including Twins fans….they have to be as frustrated about the situation as Buxton and the Twins FO and ownership are.
One thing for sure – he’s going to eat up a good percentage of the payroll budget no matter where he plays next (and if he plays).
He’s worth all of that and then some WHEN he plays, he’s worth nothing when he does not. If I’m the Twins, I see what I can get and if not, wait until next year. and see what happens. Free agent at the end of the 2022 season.
Leave out 2021 and this guy’s stats are putrid:
.238/.289/.430 with a 91 OPS+
He’s injured and inconsistent.
He’s very comparable to Kevin Kiermaier:
.247/.306/.406 with a 96 OPS+
In 7 seasons this dude’s played over 92 games ONCE and he thinks he’s worth more than $70m over 7 seasons? Twins should be happy to ship him off. They’d get more offensive production resigning Nelson Cruz in the off-season for 7 years and $70m. Doesn’t matter how old he’d be.
If dude stays healthy and performs, he deserves to get paid. But he needs to be healthy and in the lineup… I don’t understand how his agent thinks that he deserves more guaranteed money over an incentive heavy contract
If my aunt had nuts, she’d be my uncle.