Marcus Semien and Robbie Ray have been two of baseball’s best players this season, let alone big reasons why the Blue Jays are still in the hunt for an AL wild card berth. Both are scheduled to hit free agency this winter, and it isn’t any surprise that the Jays have interest in keeping both players in the fold. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports that the Jays have already tried to sign Semien to a contract extension, while the club intends to discuss a long-term deal with Ray after the season.
The wording would seem to imply that the Jays have yet to broach an extension with Ray, which might not necessarily mean that the team is prioritizing Semien. Ray (like many players) might simply prefer to not talk contract during the season, in order to focus solely on baseball. Also of note, Semien is represented by the Wasserman Agency, which has traditionally been more open to in-season negotiating — in the last month alone, Wasserman clients Travis d’Arnaud and Brandon Crawford each inked new deals to remain with their current teams.
Barring a truly massive offer from the Blue Jays, it was probably unlikely that Semien would’ve accepted an extension this close to free agency, as the veteran infielder looks set to land the pricey multi-year deal that eluded him on the open market last year. Semien didn’t hit well over the first month of the shortened 2020 season, leaving him with only a .223/.305/.374 slash line in 236 total PA even after he hit much better in late September and during the Athletics’ playoff run. Rather than take a multi-year contract at a lowered cost, Semien opted for a one-year, $18MM deal with Toronto, betting on himself to deliver bigger numbers over a full season.
That bet has paid off handsomely, as Semien hit his 35th homer of the season today, and is now batting .266/.334/.530 over 601 plate appearances. With the abbreviated 2020 season folded between Semien’s big years in 2019 and 2021, his three-season cumulative total of a .268/.346/.501 slash line over 1579 PA works out to a 128 wRC+, solidly placing him amongst the best middle infielders in baseball. Semien had been a starting shortstop in Oakland before becoming the Jays’ second baseman this season, to accommodate Bo Bichette at short.
Ray also had something to prove in the wake of a rough 2020 season with the Diamondbacks and Blue Jays, and he moved quickly to rejoin the Blue Jays on a one-year, $8MM pact soon after the opening of the official free agent period. Ray had always been plagued by inconsistency and high walk totals during his five-plus seasons in Arizona, but after working with the Jays’ coaching staff and overhauling his offseason training regimen, Ray has blossomed as a candidate for the AL Cy Young Award.
Including today’s 6 2/3 shutout innings of work against Oakland, Ray has a 2.60 ERA and 32.3% strikeout rate over 166 frames. Perhaps most importantly, Ray has only a six percent walk rate — easily his career best, and in the 82nd percentile of all qualified pitchers this season. Ray has also gained enough innings to qualify as baseball’s all-time leader in K/9, with an 11.2 total over his eight MLB seasons.
In short, both Semien and Ray project to be two of the offseason’s top free agents, and re-signing both could potentially cost the Blue Jays upwards of $200MM. While it remains to be seen if the Jays will indeed be able to bring even one of the duo back for 2022 and beyond, money alone shouldn’t be a deterrent. The signings of George Springer and Hyun Jin Ryu are evidence that Toronto is willing to spend big in free agency, and many of the Jays’ young stars are either cost-controlled via arbitration or (in Bichette’s case) are still over a year away from arbitration eligibility. The Blue Jays also don’t have that much money on the books in future years, creating the possibility that both Semien and Ray could be slotted alongside Springer, Ryu, and possibly major extensions for the likes of Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. or Teoscar Hernandez.
I’d like to see both of them re-signed, but make Ray the priority. The Blue Jays system is loaded with middle infielders, but not too many high-ceiling pitchers.
I don’t know….I hear you can often have too much pitching.
Common baseball knowledge here
They need to get more LH. Semien fits because he’s probably the best SS on the team. Adding a LH SS would probably fit the best but I don’t think Corey Seager is coming to Toronto.
Hopeful? Offer them the most money and they stay. No need to rely I hope. Rely on money.
But then my internet phone and cable bill will have to go up
If they raised the rates of 5 million accounts by one dollar per month, they would add revenue of $60 million per year. For the price of less than a cup of coffee per month, would you sacrifice some spending to retain these two free agents?
This is great analysis! Plus they could just raise the price of a beer
Yes, they could also sell more hats and tshirts to raise the same money by doing that traditional way to sell more merch… win. Win a great deal, and use media hype to stir up the fan base.
lol why do I have to pay for them???
@neo MLB merchandising sales revenues are pooled are split evenly between each team.
Offering players the most money in free agency is a good way to never actually win. Fan’s opinions are the worst lol.
Offer them the least? Yes, fan’s opinions are the worst.
Jays are making great progress and it’s nice to see after years of cultivating mediocrity. Anthopoulos, though gone, was instrumental in shifting that mindset. Jays fans deserve this positive momentum. Toronto is a great city, I’m sure both players would be happy to stay if the dollars add up.
It is so nice to see the garden of mediocrity blossoming and beginning to bear the fruit of raised expectations.
I can assure you that the Jays’ bullpen has done its best to cultivate mediocrity this year
Not a Blue Jays fan by any means but I like the way they’ve built their ball club so I hope they can bring Semien and Ray back and sign one more quality SP. The entire AL East has a bright future (even Baltimore in another two years) and competitive divisions from top to bottom make baseball that much better considering how many games you play within the division.
Judging by the interview Atkins had on Bob Mccowns podcast, which I saw on YouTube, the way I read between the lines on what he had to say, was Semien is more of a priority then Ray. Make of it whatever you want .. Don’t be surprised if Semien is back, and Ray will be gone.
The way Atkins was speaking about Semien compared to Ray, it seems the Jays are really fond of Semien, and maybe might not want to risk a multi-year high priced deal for Ray. Semien to me is way more likely to be a sustainable contributor then Ray anyway imo.
Ray could have an era in the 4’s next year .. I trust Semien way more then Ray, especially if they’re thinking of letting Ray walk. Both are due for a big payday, and I truly doubt Jays bring back Ray, pitching needy teams are going to be willing to pay a lot for him, if the Jays are smart they let him walk.
Both could cost upwards of $200MM together? If I was Robbie Ray I’d be asking for that myself. This is probably his only chance at the big deal and he’s under 30. Would he be crazy to ask for six years and $180MM?
No way he gets $30 with an inconsistent track record and lots of competition in this SP class.
6/120 maybe
Pitching is not cheap these days. He’s mediocre career wise but having a career year. So they’ll pay him
Ray does not have the track record for a 30m+AAV on a medium term ( 5-6) yr deal. I could see him getting Wheeler type money.
I think Jays fans feel like they can live without Semien because their lineup is so deep, but losing Ray would be devastating. Both players will cost $100M+, not sure how high the Jays want to take their payroll given their best players aren’t making anything yet.
Unfortunately for the Blue Jays they’re both future Mariners.
Semien is headed to Seattle. There is not a more perfect fit for him. Robbie Ray will regress, the Mariners will find somebody better.
They’re hopeful to re-sign both. I’m hopeful of marrying a Swedish bikini model. But to be fair I like Toronto’s chances better.
Any specific Swedish bikini model?
Could be partial to the female ones, but will probably take any candidate if they are willing to sign before bikini season starts up again.
Robbie Ray deserves a blank check
They both actually deserve one but we need Rays spot in the rotation more.
A blank cheque? That’s a good way to add a unmovable terrible contract. Offer the QO take the pick the pick and draft better. When that pitcher reaches free agency after 6 years, rinse and repeat.
Ah yes, the way zero teams have recently won.
Robbie Ray is going to make any GM who signs him look like a genius. I personally think he has turned a corner and has corrected his biggest flaw which was giving out free passes. He has always had the stuff but he was always inconsistent. This season he is attacking the zone early and challenging hitters. This breakout is no fluke and if he continues to challenge hitters early and attack the zone I think he’ll be in a good place.
Robbie Ray is a one year fluke. Has he had Tommy John surgery yet? Well if not, then it’s on the horizon.
Oh, the “Blue Jays are interested in” posts have started early this time around.
In other news, water is wet.
Any team should be interested in keeping a couple players of their caliber
If the rumors were true last year that Siemen was looking for a $200M+ long term contract, he’s going to be extremely disappointed this offseason even after his monster year. He’ll be 31 years old next year, so he would do very well to get 5 year commitment out of any team; he’ll most likely have to settle for a 4 year offer with a club option. I really don’t see any team going much above 4/$100M for him, so if he’s still looking for $200M+ he’s going to be highly disappointed.
Ray is tough case as well. He’ll be 30 years old next year and has a career ERA of 4.01. Like Semien, he is enjoying a career year in Toronto, but he has teased other teams (Arizona) with excellent seasons in the past only to revert back to ‘Regular Ray”. It would certainly be a huge risk to offer him a 6 year deal, but given how hard it is to find quality pitching, he might end up getting a 6 year, $120M – $130M offer from someone. I have a feeling Toronto will end up overpaying for him and who knows which Robby Ray shows up after inking his new deal. Zach Wheeler’s deal with Philly is a good comp fot Ray IMO.
Wheeler’s deal was 5/118. Somebody will offer the career K/9 leader your 6-year money over 5 years. Jays have potential and were a choice he made quickly last off-season. I think Jays will be bidding against a better offer if they let it get that far.
Semien could be EE revisited. Jays make offer which he rejects, then finds tough to improve upon. More versatile, and capable, than Edwin, it still seems like an overreach if $200M is a goal.
Jays lose out on both, or maybe get one (Semien) on a later reset of expectations, if they have to QO them imo
Rays and Jays will rule this division.
no, they have ray, seimen and teoscar on the team, all three of them are having a career year, and where do they rank? 4th in the division
All about where you finish. And the Rays are ready to make everyone look bad it appears.
No because they have absolutely no clue how to build a bullpen. And now they aren’t going to be able to afford going out and buying one. I can’t even place the name of their current closer. This team is not going to the playoffs I can tell you that much.
Just love when people totally ignorant about a team comment on their threads like experts. oh wait that’s the personification of TROLL.
You’d have to be mentally ill to sign either one of these guys to a huge deal, but even if Semien regresses that is a great player to have at 2B. Would love to see the White Sox sign him for three years.
Ray on the other hand, will probably get whomever signs him fired.
Ray has been inconsistent but is at worst a reliable 5th starter, while at best is a top of the rotation type. I am guessing Ray will be asking for like 5 years/$160M, coming off this performance.
I’d offer Ray 3 years/$95M, 4 years/$120M or 5 years/$135M, paying him an incredibly high salary in 2022, like $35M, with a descending salary until he’s “only” making $20M his last season.
Even if Semien regresses, he’ll still probably put up 3-4 WAR per season, which is still quite valuable.
I’d offer Semien a front loaded 5 year/$135M deal, unofficially retroactively giving him a 6 year/$153M contract, paying him like $35M in 2022 and then a relatively low AAV of $26.25M over the final four years.
It beats out Springer’s deal by $3M, or by $500k per season, which is appropriate given their respective WAR histories and his cost per season stays manageable in today’s market.
That’s a lot of number crunching there.
My guess is $120M/5 for each of them. For each observation that this is a career year, there will be a GM that thinks it isn’t. And honestly, there are arguments in favor of both players.
Semien’s bWAR/650 is 5.4 over 4 years. Both 2018 & 2019 were excellent years.
Ray is less predictable, but the Ks have always been there. The BB9 is about half of what it once was, he’s maintained it for a full year.
It’d be great for them if they could retain both, but I think it’s clear that Ray should be the priority. The Blue Jays offense is already loaded and they still have a bunch of promising infield prospects on the way. Ray would be a much bigger loss for a team that needs good starting pitching much more than anything else.
I agree. Ray also likes playing for the Jays and working with Pete Walker. He signed real fast last off season mainly for the dual purpose of working with Walker and being on a young competitive team. If the Jays make a competitive offer I think Ray will be back with the Jays.