As expected, the Dodgers officially announced that both Corey Seager and Chris Taylor will receive qualifying offers prior to today’s 4pm CT deadline. However, Seager and Taylor were the only players mentioned, meaning that Clayton Kershaw will enter free agency without the qualifying offer attached to his services.
Kershaw, Taylor, and Seager were the only Dodger free agents who were both eligible for the QO (Max Scherzer and Kenley Jansen weren’t eligible, for the record) and seemed like candidates to be issued the one-year, $18.4MM deal. Seager was obviously a no-brainer and Taylor also seemed like an increasingly obvious lock for the QO, but Kershaw’s case suddenly became much cloudier due to his season-ending forearm injury. While Kershaw’s injury won’t require surgery and he expects to be ready for Spring Training, the issue certainly seems substantial enough for the Dodgers to have doubts about an $18.4MM commitment.
It isn’t a guarantee that Kershaw would have accepted a qualifying offer, but it would certainly seem like a possibility considering his injury-shortened 2021 campaign. Elbow inflammation sidelined Kershaw for over two months, and his forearm problems then prevented him from taking part in the Dodgers’ postseason run. Over 121 2/3 innings pitched, however, Kershaw still posted a 3.55 ERA with outstanding strikeout (29.5%) and walk (4.3%) rates.
The lack of a QO doesn’t necessarily spell the end of Kershaw’s run in a Dodgers uniform. President of baseball operations Andrew Friedman has already said that the team will approach Kershaw’s trip to the open market in a different manner than they would a normal free agent, given Kershaw’s legendary status in Los Angeles.
Interpreted another way, however, it could be that the Dodgers are giving Kershaw a bit of leeway towards a potential departure by not extending a qualifying offer. If Kershaw rejected a QO, his new team would have to give up a draft pick and potentially international bonus pool money to sign him, which could have hampered Kershaw’s market to some extent.
Now, the southpaw doesn’t have anything hindering his first-ever trip to free agency, which would at least slightly increase the chance that Kershaw’s Dodgers tenure could be up after 14 seasons. There has been speculation that the Texas native might be interested in pitching closer to home, which would put the Astros and particularly the Rangers (Kershaw is from Dallas and lives in the area) on the radar as possible landing spots.
I still think if Kershaw keeps playing he will get at least 2 years/$55M if not 3 years/$94.5M.
If Hyun Jin Ryu is worth $20M per season, Kershaw is still worth $27.5M or more per season.
Kinda surprised the Dodgers and Kershaw haven’t just done a 2 year/$62M extension already.
If the Dodgers didn’t issue him an $18.4M/1 year offer why are you surprised that they haven’t just done a 2 year/$62M extension… why would i team say “you’re not worth this for one year but you’re worth almost double this annual salary for multiple years” …….
Math. Don’t assume others understand it.
Math. Can’t live with it. Can’t live without it ⚾️
Class move by the Dodgers, forfeiting a compensation pick to help Kershaw latch onto another team if they (Dodgers and Kershaw) can’t come to an agreement.
Sure…as if that why they did this…keep drinking the cool aid
Wait, there’s Kool-Aid? Nobody told be there’d be Kool-Aid.
Nope. Just cake ⚾️
He wouldn’t have a draft pick attached, he already received a QO in the past.
Kershaw has never received a QO. He’s never even been a free agent.
No man. Because of Injury concerns alone, his value that You mention alone is for no Injury prone players. Same goes for verlander, or if strasburg would hit free agency. Or Even for syndengard so i think Noah takes the QO from mets. Kershaw is closer to 2 years 30-34 Mill
He won’t get 27 mil a year. Too fragile.
That doesn’t make any sense. If the Dodgers thought Kershaw was worth $27.5M a year they would have been willing to offer him the 1-year $18.4M QO. This means the Dodgers are not even willing to give him $18.4M a year, much less $27.5M. He could still get a multi-year deal but it will obviously have to be at a lower AAV than $18.4 unless he signs with another team. There is no way the Dodgers decline the QO and then offer him a higher AAV. The reason they declined is because they were afraid he would accept and they don’t want to give him that much money. It wasn’t long ago that people were predicting over $30M AAV for Kershaw. This makes me thing his injury is worse than some people believe. The question is, if Kershaw isn’t worth $18.4M a year… What is he worth? $15M? $16M? $10M? I feel like if the Dodgers were even willing to pay him close to $18.4M a year they would have offered him the QO. My guess is Kershaw ends up signing for a lot less than $18.4M a year or he has thrown his last pitch in a Dodger uniform. It wouldn’t make any sense for the Dodgers to pay him an AAV over $18.4M now that they have decided he isn’t even worth that on a one year deal. Kershaw might have to wait until the offseason is almost over and prove how healthy he is going to be before anyone signs him. I guess all that talk the Dodgers were saying about them being willing to pay Kershaw above market prices because he is a lifelong future HOF Dodger was nonsense. I think this is actually the smartest decision for LA. That forearm injury is scary and it wouldn’t surprise me if he aggravates it at some point and does eventually need Tommy John surgery. It would be a huge waste to pay a guy that kind of money for one year just for him to barely pitch for you and then become a free agent again. I’m going to guess Kershaw either re-signs with the Dodgers for an AAV closer to 10 or 15 or he ends up leaving to go to another team that is willing to pay him more than that. Very interesting development though.
“If the Dodgers thought Kershaw was worth $27.5M a year they would have been willing to offer him the 1-year $18.4M QO.”
“This means the Dodgers are not even willing to give him $18.4M a year, much less $27.5M.”
“I feel like if the Dodgers were even willing to pay him close to $18.4M a year they would have offered him the QO.”
“It wouldn’t make any sense for the Dodgers to pay him an AAV over $18.4M now that they have decided he isn’t even worth that on a one year deal.”
You don’t have to say the same thing over and over again in your posts. We got it the first time.
I don’t think you get it. They didn’t want to pay him $18.4M for one year, which means any deal they offer him would be for less than that amount per year.
For example, if say the Angels offered Kershaw $25M per year, he might take that because the Dodgers have already indicated that they don’t want to pay him more than $18.4M per year.
Or say if the Mariners offered him $23.6M per year, it’s still more than the $18.4M the Dodgers don’t want to pay Kershaw because they didn’t extend the QO to him.
Does that make more sense?
Brevity is the soul of wit
I think we need a few more examples.
I wasn’t talking to you or whoever “we” is. I was talking to @Trillionaire. Based on the statements below there were clearly some people who didn’t get it “the first time.” @bucsfan0004: “Don’t lowball Kershaw like that. He will get 3/50-60 range.” Believe it or not every comment isn’t directed towards you. No one cares whether you “got it” or not. You don’t speak for everyone and based on the replies below plenty of people didn’t get it. You don’t have to refer to yourself as “we” because you only speak for yourself.
Ok but what if the reds offered $21.7 million? What then? I really think it would be clearer if you gave us fictional examples for all MLB teams because your two virtually identical scenarios didn’t bring the point home for US.
The last 3 years he’s been on the DL
Dude… are you even looking at your own math and using logic??? $64m minus $18.4m is $43.6m. Wouldn’t it be smarter for the Dodgers to extend him a QO, get him to accept, and negotiate a lesser ’23 salary extension? Clearly, the LA doesn’t think Kershaw is worth the QO.
64 minus 18.4 is NOT 43.6 lmao
AAV higher for 3 years over 2? No wonder California’s broke with that kind of math
Wow
Wow is right, a .688 winning PCT & a 2.49 era lifetime?
I hope he signs with the Giants & puts it to the ungrateful Dodgers every chance he gets.
Wow
Wow
Wow
Ungrateful? They treated him very well and respectfully over the years, and it was mutual.
I’m sure the treatment during the marriage makes the one-sided divorce much easier to stomach……
Texas bound to go finish his HOF career, like Ryan.
Why would he want to spend the twilight years of his career for a franchise ready to lose 100 again
His wife doesn’t want to move the children again. DFW is their home.She has been quite vocal about it.
Link to Ellen Kershaw being vocal about it?
But like Ryan, he’ll head to Houston first
Taylor…. he’s worth a QO?
Yes, you attach a draft pick to players who are a lock to get multiple offers from multiple teams.
But I don’t see any way he rejects the offer and he’s not worth it
really? the dude has a great bat and can play anywhere. likely a starting CF in a weak CF market.
Taylor is worth the QO and he probably declines it. Taylor might not get an AAV that high but he still probably gets at least $50 million on the free agent market. You don’t turn down $50+M to get $18.4M even if it is a 1 year deal. Most teams would be glad to have Taylor on a 1-year $18.4 million deal.
Or course Taylor is worth the QO.
I think they are certain he wants a longer contract. He may not get aav equal to that, but will certainly get a total value more than that. It’s another way of trying to get him to stay, or get something in return for leaving
It’s tough for Kershaw who the dodgers exploited all these years, hopefully he can prove em wrong. It’s notable however that he’s so Injury prone lalely for years Now. 1 year 15Mill aprox Range for him i believe
Don’t lowball Kershaw like that. He will get 3/50-60 range.
If Kershaw were going to make $50-60M on a 3 year deal the Dodgers would have just QO’d him. This is a huge red flag and it tells other teams that Kershaw is seriously injured. He will never make $50-$60M on a 3 year deal now. You’re dreaming.
I don’t care either way, dude. Look how desperate teams are for pitching,
Teams are desperate for pitching but that’s what makes Kershaw so problematic. No one is certain that he is actually going to be able to pitch. If Kershaw becomes some teams big pitching acquisition this season and his forearm injury prevents him from pitching it could kill their season. Teams may be desperate for pitching but they aren’t desperate for expensive players who may not even pitch. No one will give Kershaw that kind of money after finding out even the Dodgers think it’s too risky. If any organization knows whether or not Kershaw is worth that kind of money it’s the Dodgers and they clearly don’t. Other teams will strongly consider that before making him any kind of offer. He won’t get that much per year and he probably won’t get a contract longer than 2 years tops.
“exploited” they gave him a 200 million dollar extension before free agency lmao.
Exactly! Highway robbery! Pffft, $200MM ……
Honestly this makes me feel like they’re that confidant that they’re gonna resign him. If they bring him back they’ll still be able to give him a QO
Agreed. If they weren’t in talks right now they would have skipped a QO.
It’s a public distraction to a private negotiation.
Yup, to me this is the obvious conclusion, and maybe so obvious it’s been totally overlooked as a possibility. The Dodgers aren’t going to fail to give anybody a QO out of courtesy and to make it easier for him to sign elsewhere. Since when is that good baseball business?
If Kershaw is back I’d have to think it would be a short and cheap deal, can’t see him making top dollar when he’s not been able to stay healthy. If he’s not back with the Dodgers I really hope he retires though, can’t imagine him pitching for another team. I’d personally love to see him back in a 1 year cheaper deal but I guess it’s all up to what he’s looking for. I know for sure Saeger is gone and and I’ve already come to terms with that but would love to see Taylor back especially after losing Joc and Kike, Taylor is just too important. Doesn’t sound great for Scherzer coming back but I honestly would rather him than Kershaw at this point in both of their careers.
He’ll get a couple of years at least on a performance based contract.
If a mid-30s SP with an injury history and finishes the year injured, why you commit $18 million to him? These two and three year suggestions for 60 to 90 million seem even crazier!
Well that’s really surprising
I’m 99% sure he was extended one right before his last extension when he was technically a FA for a day or whatever, so he is not eligible to receive one again.
surely this would be known at some point
Kershaw has never been a free agent before. He was signed to that huge extension prior to becoming a free agent, so he could have never received a QO in his past.
The lessening of importance and value continues for starting pitchers.
Could Kershaw end up with the Angels? Kind of like when they got Puhols from the Cards. Seems too bizarre to be true.
Obviously the dodgers are much more informed on his injury than anyone else. They deemed 18.4 mil too risky for the injury he has. Why would anyone think some other team will jump in and over pay him? If anyone was to overpay it would have been the Dodgers where he could have gone down as a HOF legend returning yearly to spring such as the other legends do.from the organization’s past. I hope he bounces back with health and can pitch a few more seasons but I also wouldn’t be shocked if he retires if the arm doesn’t heal up. Never thought Posey would hang them up after a great 2021. Kershaw is loaded financially and loves his charity work with the wife. Retiring to Texas as a multimillionaire isn’t the worst thing after all.
I agree that the Dodgers know more about his injury. Or maybe they want to allocate resources on perfectly healthy arms? Either way, tough day for Dodger fans.
I say for Taylor to take it because he did have a breakout season in 2021. It was hard to miss considering his hitting led him to getting an All Star nod. The only problem with the one year offer is that he is risking himself from getting more money in the future in case of injury or falling within his stats.
For Seager, I think hes going to be looking for more than just $18.5 million for one season. Even though his agent Boras and him are expecting a 10 year $300 million contract this winter he is not expected to get that much money because teams don’t value Seager that high. Correa is being valued at $32m by his own team. Seager is probably $25-$28 million a season. Remember he has a history of injury problems, his numbers also dipped this year due to injury. He only played 95 games. The last time he played over 150 games was his rookie year in 2016. His run production has be fluctuating over the past few seasons besides the COVID. If they would have had a longer season I think he would have racked up some pretty big numbers.
Correa has missed quite a bit of time, too. Seager could get $30m/yr if he signs in N.Y.
It seems overwhelmingly likely this was simply a courtesy move on the Dodgers’ part. Even diminished Kershaw is easily worth $18M to the Dodgers on a one year deal. The odds of him signing elsewhere have to be very low.
Kershaw had two forearm issues last year and has had issues the last three. You are basically paying big money for a guy probably facing TJ during your contract, assuming you sign him.
Could not have said it better. Lack of a QO might be one of two things- either hoping to have him back on a cheaper one year deal and if it works out have the QO for next season or a parting of the ways. No one pays a guy 25-30M a season with the mileage and recent injury history.
How people can think the Dodgers are ungrateful for a pitcher who’s about as effective as Mad Bum or Grienke at this point.. these players have made absolutely every penny they can pull out of the teams they have played for. You don’t get paid for the past.. those days are over. Kershaw is a first ballot hall of famer if he doesn’t throw another pitch.
Are you saying Kershaw is currently about as good as Greinke and Bumgarner are right now?
Because that’s an insult to Kershaw. Greinke and Bumgarner are washed, Kershaw is still a number two level starter. His issues are mostly with health, not with run prevention.
Holy heck you are uninformed
When he got hurt, his FIP was better than Scherzer
Seager had some shocking errors in post season and doesn’t crack 20 HR a year. Wouldn’t pay him more than 20aav
Then you won’t get Corey Seager. He’s hit 20+ twice, and 25 in just 70 games in 2020, counting the postseason. Only 19 in 2019, in which he spent half the year regaining his power stroke after two surgeries and missed 28 games as well. And while recovered from those surgeries, he did hit 44 doubles to lead the league in only 134 games. He’s a high average hitter with good power (OPS+ of 131 for his career), and can hit lefties. Seager rakes, and he’s get north of 20M AAV.
I’m sure he will get it but shouldn’t. He wants tatis jnr money but won’t reach his power numbers. How bout the errors?
Respect the heck out of him, would love to see him in Padre brown and gold but highly doubt that occurs.
Kershaw isn’t going anywhere. The Dodgers FO feels the same way. Otherwise, if they thought he would leave, they’d offer him one. Im sure we’ll see in the next few weeks that Kershaw and the Dodgers agree on a multi-year contract. Sorry to burst the bubble of so many hopeful teams.
Mad Max and Kershaw pitching for the blue Jays next year!
I think injury more serious than anyone knows
Was shut down for remainder of season. Would estimate its 50/50 he ends up needing TJS this spring.
Thanks Doc.
Angels make sense here on multiple fronts. Six man rotation to limit innings, travel to DFW several times per year, same spring training home.
And we love injured pitchers.
30/2+option?
Goodnight sweet prince
Due to health reasons, there’s a chance Kershaw won’t pitch at all in 2022. As tough as this is for me as a Dodger fan, it’s the correct baseball move. No way do you give someone $18.4 million to spend the year rehabbing. The two sides will work things out one way or another. And if this is it for Kershaw as Dodger, it’s not because the Dodgers treated him with some kind of disrespect.
Very likely, and thus very likely the Dodgers give him a two year deal for a little more total than the QO, with mutual options after that. Or an agreement for a year to year beyond 2023.
I do think Kershaw will only continue if he can pitch to his standards, and even then I think he’s retiring by 35.
I’ve been a ball fan for over 50 years and could count on one hand the pitchers who have been comparable to Kershaw. And maybe one finger. And he kept signing those contracts and cashing the checks so I don’t think he ever felt disrespected.
True, but some commenters have already suggested such a thing. Whatever happens, it will likely be an amicable resolution between the two parties. They both understand the legacy part of the equation.
Maybe they’ve already agreed to an extension, in principle, and they just haven’t ironed out the deets yet. That’s my guess.
I don’t see a bounce back for Kershaw. The Dodgers are in a tough spot if he wants to continue to play baseball. No way he signs with the Rangers. He’s a Dodger for life.
I can’t see the Rangers signing him. They’re nowhere near ready to come out of their rebuild. Heck, some say that they need to start over. Smart clubs don’t pay free agents to come in and win them games when they are in tank mode. They shop in the bargain bin to fill holes. Winning isn’t what they want. They just want to be competitive.
I fail to see the tough spot.
It’s a PR problem potentially. Letting Kershaw walk is a loyalty issue IMO. He’s a sentimental fan favorite. He’s not worth the huge money any more and it appears the Dodgers don’t want to give it to him. We’ll see.
I don’t see him getting huge money, I see him getting a couple of years of a highly performance-based contact. He’s been on one of those for the last several years, even before the season-ending injury, so we should know he’s open to that kind of contract structure, and he’s more in need of it now than ever. He is also going to be motivated to not allow his years with the Dodgers end the way it did last season. He’s also worth more to the Dodgers than to any other team.
Blue skies. Good post
Again. His FIP at the time of injury was better than Scherzer. Top 10 in the NL
There’s no reason to think he’s done
up until this point I felt Kersh resigning was a foregone conclusion, but this to me suggests they are going to let him walk. this move looks more like a professional courtesy thing to me. depending on Verlander’s decision I could see Houston as an option.
Funny, to me it suggests the exact opposite. No team gives up high draft picks, or even low ones, as a “courtesy,” and no player would ever expect them to do it.
Exactly
It’s ridiculous that Kershaw’s issue is described only as a “forearm injury”. Why be so secretive about it? If it’s a torn UCL, say so. If it’s not, explain what the nature of the injury is. There’s a huge distinction between a UCL injury and other types of forearm injuries. (IMHO the Dodgers’ reluctance to make a QO strongly suggests it’s a UCL tear.)
What if it’s exactly what they say- an injury to the forearm?
The forearm is not the Ucl. If he had a torn UCL, or even a sprained UCL, it would be referred to as an elbow injury
And If it’s a tear, why the heck is he wasting 6 months of potential rehab? Your conspiracy theory is horribly flawed
Where did Sanchez finished on the Gold Glove list for catcher?
He won the iron glove.
330 Ks to 3000, 15 wins to 200. Probably takes two seasons for either. Kershaw can retire now and be a first ballot HOF. Not going to Houston. Dodgers or Rangers or retiring. Maybe Kershaw wants to see how he feels physically in a few months? No matter what his decision on playing in 2022, one of my favorite players!
Calling it now. Mariners 15 years 489million.
If you’re a Dodgers fan you do love Taylor but you also recall the two months where he hit about a buck and whiffed copiously. I wonder if maybe LA let’s him go and replaces him with another versatile player who doesn’t K so much.
Also, I love Seager but for 3B. His hitting is excellent and he’s clutch but he’s a mediocre SS. Never spectacular.
If Kersh signed with the Cheaters I would have to go to a hypnotist to have all my memories of him erased.
Please don’t blame me for posting twice. I have no friggin idea why this thing does that.