NOVEMBER 7: The Brewers won’t issue a qualifying offer to Garcia or any of their free agents, MLB.com’s Tim McCalvy reports (via Twitter).
NOVEMBER 5: Avisail Garcia declined his end of a $12MM mutual option with the Brewers yesterday, opting for a $2MM buyout and a return trip to the free agent market. Before he formally hits free agency on Sunday at 5pm ET, however, the Brewers will have the opportunity to issue him a one-year, $18.4MM qualifying offer. No decision on that front has been made just yet, but the Brewers are indeed considering that course of action, writes Will Sammon of The Athletic.
If Milwaukee does issue a qualifying offer Sunday, Garcia would have ten days to determine whether to accept or reject. Garcia and agent Gene Mato would be able to negotiate with other teams during that ten-day window in order to get an early sense of the market. If Garcia were to accept that $18.4MM offer, he’d be signed for the 2022 season and effectively ineligible to be traded prior to next June 15, as is the case with all free agents who sign Major League contracts.
Were Garcia to reject the offer, he’d be subject to draft pick compensation; any team that signed Garcia would do so at the cost of forfeitures in next year’s draft. The exact compensation varies from team to team. Teams that paid the luxury tax in 2021 (i.e. Dodgers, Padres) would forfeit their second- and fifth-highest picks in the draft, in addition to $1MM of next year’s league-allotted international bonus pool. Teams that received revenue-sharing would forfeit their third-highest pick in the draft. Any of the 15 other teams would forfeit its second-highest pick and see a $500K reduction in its international bonus pool. (The team-by-team breakdown of those categories can be seen in this previous piece from MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes.)
The Brewers, meanwhile, would receive a compensatory pick after the first round of the 2022 draft if Garcia signs a contract worth $50MM or more in guaranteed money. Should Garcia sign for less, Milwaukee would receive a compensatory pick after next year’s Competitive Balance Round B — typically in the No. 75 to 80 range.
On the one hand, making an offer is a risk for the Brewers. There’s at least a chance that Garcia would accept the offer in hopes of producing another strong season and returning to the open market next year, without the burden of draft compensation. Garcia accepting a qualifying offer would push Milwaukee’s projected payroll up into the $140MM range for next season — well north of the team’s current Opening Day record of about $122.5MM (from 2019).
On the other hand, Garcia’s 2021 season — .262/.330/.490, 29 home runs, 18 doubles, eight stolen bases, strong right field defense — was certainly worth that $18.4MM. Were he to accept and repeat that production, it’d hardly be an egregious overpay. And, that strong showing both at the plate and in the field has made Garcia a clear candidate for a multi-year deal in free agency. He’s not likely to secure that same $18.4MM value on an annual basis, but he could earn a much larger guarantee over a longer term. Players reject the qualifying offer more often than they accept, as most generally prefer the stability and security of a long-term deal. Longer-term pacts protect them against any injury or regression that might occur in the event of accepting the QO, and it’s eminently understandable that players with families prefer the continuity of a multi-year pact rather than moving those families around the continent on a year-to-year basis.
Market context matters, too. There’s a fair number of corner outfield options on the market this winter, with Kris Bryant, Kyle Schwarber, Nick Castellanos, Starling Marte (who can also play center), Mark Canha, Michael Conforto, Jorge Soler and Eddie Rosario among the available options. Garcia falls into the middle of that group, but his stock could be strengthened by the fact that not every team will be able to afford the very top-of-the-market options. Garcia could well be viewed as one of the more palatable options in that next tier, offering a promising blend of power, athleticism and defense.
Should have held him to 491 plate appearances. This wouldn’t have been a problem then. He would still be under contract for $10 million if they didn’t feel so compelled to give him those extra 24 plate appearances after they already had the division locked up.
If they deliberately withheld plate appearances from their most-productive hitter in order to keep him under contract, they’d open themselves up to a grievance.
They could very well lose said grievance, but even then, that would be thrown back in their face in future negotiations with free agents and players they wish to extend. It’d be seen as operating in bad faith.
thats a cubs move
They could have gotten away with it if they spread it out. One less plate appearance per game for 24 games spread out over a 162 game season is easy to cover up. Just do it every once in awhile. Give his last at bat against a righty to a left hander and say you wanted the lefty righty matchup. That’s very arguably just trying harder to win and not deliberately manipulating his service time. There’s a good chance the team would have actually done better that way. I’m also not really buying the concept that they want to move on considering they are mulling whether or not to offer him the QO. If they are thinking about paying him $18.4M they definitely would have wanted him at $10M. Even if they didn’t want him they could have easily traded him at that price. I know deliberately manipulating the plate appearances solely for that purpose could be against the rules but it’s not against the rules if your doing it to bring in a lefty so he can have the advantage in the at bat. Garcia made a lot more than 24 outs against righys this season. Putting a lefty in there at least 24 of those times could have very likely helped the offense. No way the Brewers lose the grievance in that case. We’re talking about once every 6 or 7 games giving one of his plate appearances to a lefty when a righty is on the mound. That’s not really manipulation.
We get it. But they didn’t. It’s over now.
enough with the plate appearances argument. They wanted him to be fresh for the playoffs and get consistent at bats to not be cold entering the division series.
Did it work? no…he was awful…just like everyone else in our lineup.
I truly think the Brewers want to go another direction this offseason and dont want him back at that money. Plenty of outfielders to choose from via trade/free agency.
Avi is a contract guy. He will regress like Grandal/Moose did on multi year deals
@Stearns I wouldn’t touch this dude with a multi-year deal either, you’re so right about him. In ten seasons he’s averaged under one hundred games played and calling him prone to injury is an understatement. I’m always so amazed when fans want their teams to just hand out money and years to players like this. He’s the ultimate one year deal guy and anything more is super risky.
Sure, just, ya know.. manipulate his service time
He should take it if offered.
That would be a fairly easy decision for him. He won’t get that AAV on the open market, so might as well lock it in and go for a big payday next year unencumbered.
Pretty simple – he got 2m. 2/30. 12/22 and 18/23. Should get it done.
Avi’s only good in odd numbered years. if im him I reject and hope for 2 or 4 years.
That’s a tad contradictory, isn’t it? All the evidence is there for him, his agent, the Brewers and every other team to see 2022 will most likely be a down year for him.
So, the logical answers should be:
Brewers don’t make a QO.
However, if they do, he should jump on it.
Because other teams aren’t likely to offer a multi year deal that gives them a) solid offensive numbers more years than not, for b) a team (owner/payroll) advantageous dollar amount. At least not without going 4 years, but then age and natural physical decline come into play.
If I’m the Brewers, I think it’s best to just let him go. Cain is declining, JBJ is JBJ, and Yelich hasn’t shown he’s a $27ish million dollar guy. They can’t afford a 4th overpaid OF’er when they need consistent offensive production badly, and have a rather high arbitration number to plan for as well.
That would be a bad decision. Easy to get as good a player for much less.
The QO would be easy, if they did not have the Cain and Bradley JR contracts! Can only spend so much money on the injured and cannot hit veterans! I love both of those guys, but BAD BAD BAD contracts!
Avi should take the QO. Most players decline it, however, most cases show that the player should have accepted it when it was offered. The free agency market has shown in recent years that team dollars should be taken when given. Because those dollars get used very quickly on something else.
I say Garcia accepts the QO all day long. Otherwise he’s probably looking at a 3-year deal with an AAV of $13M MAX. He doesn’t have enough of a track record supporting his 2021 production to get much more than that.
I don’t think “most cases show that the player should have accepted it when it was offered”.
The QO is for the elite FA, so these players almost always sign long term deals with way more guaranteed money. If we go back 3 years to 2018 just so we can see how the dust settled, the QO was $17.9M and offered to Patrick Corbin, (signed for 6Y/$140m) Yasmani Grandal, (signed for 4Y/$73M) Bryce Harper (signed for 13Y/$330M) Dallas Keuchel (signed for 1Y/20M, but was prorated to $13M). Craig Kimbrel (signed for 3Y/$43M) A.J. Pollock (signed for 5Y/60M) Hyun-Jin Ryu (accepted offer) .
Corbin, Grandal, Harper, definitely were smart to reject. Kimbrell and Pollack got less AAV, but they were both awful in 2019 so it was probably wise of them to lock in the guaranteed money rather than hit the market that year. The only real loser there was Kuechel who had to sit out part of the season because no one wanted to sign him with the QO, but even then he still got ~$13M and then signed the next year for 3Y/$55M, so while it was a short term disaster he did ultimately get paid. Ryu was wise to accept the offer because he needed to duplicate his success to get paid on a longer term deal with his history.
Ultimately most of the time it’s wise to reject it because the players getting these offers are in line for big multi-year deals. The thing with Garcia is, I don’t think he’s that type of player, so I don’t even think the Brewers should be offering the QO, because he probably would accept it and just take the 1 year payday.
Don’t bother. He’ll accept it. Brewers just want the draft pick but that won’t come
MIL should only offer it if they’re absolutely sure he won’t accept. I can’t see him turning it down tbh.
Question for Brewers fans, can Lo-Cain still play center?
Yes, quite well. When he’s healthy.
He can play center. Just his hitting is now a 260 hitter. Defense still great. Made great plays this year.
Yes
Can he stay off the DL? No
Is he worth that 5th year? No
Garcia’s year to year numbers are all over the place. Huge candidate to regress to the mean, IMO.
The best offer I could see anyone making is 3/36, and even that’s a stretch. You just know at least one of those years will be a down year. 2/24 is the most I’d offer if I was a team in desperate need of his apparent skillset
GarcÃa the kind of player that likely accepts to get the guaranteed high AAV payday for a year then try for the multi year deal next offseason. Examples, Jeremy Hellickson & Neil Walker.
Since day one I’ve thought he gets and denies the QO, he was a consistently ELITE hitter this season, he should easily get 3/55 3/60 on the open market this year.
117 OPS+ is not elite, nor is a bWAR under three.
He had a nice season, but it really is what you should expect at minimum out of a starting RF. He’s a nice piece if he has his head on straight, which is only ever other year. Next year isn’t one of those years.
Bad move. A QO for him shouldn’t even be a thought.
Bad move. A QO for him shouldn’t even be a thought.
You can say that again!!
Avi Garcia has never put together two good consecutive years, and he was very good last year, but not 18 million good. He’s not worth that much cash.
They would have to ask is there any other team that would value Garcia at $18 million next season? If they think so and Garcia thinks so than issue the QO, if not and the reality is it’s very doubtful Garcia gets that much AAV on the open market than don’t offer something you don’t really want to give just to get a lottery ticket in return
18 doubles and won’t take a walk. You can get a minor leaguer to do the same.
Brewers should offer QO. Sometimes one year at 18.4 is better than three years at 38.4. Brewers need one year to get to Mitchell, Frelick and Perez. Brewers should offer QO because the other equivalent outfielders will not be available on a one year deal. My guess is that if they QO is is his best deal and he accepts.
History says next year he’s a replacement level player, getting paid way too much.
Taylor is waiting in the wings, and they still have 3 high priced OF’ers with less than stellar numbers to show for it. Give Taylor regular starts and sprinkle in JBJ to try and get something from that awful contract.
Smart choice by the Brewers. If they don’t believe he is worth it don’t offer money that no one else is likely to offer
Better options that will be cheaper on the market.
Thank God because this guy got a lot of his offense during junk time plus he really doesn’t do much against the starters
Question now is, do they give Taylor a real chance or trade him for that guy from SD…?
Hope he goes back to the White Sox. Him & Semien both!
Could be a bargain in RF. Now they just need to go get ElCaballo Carlos Lee and oh weah oh Magglio.
yes
The Brewers are a top-flight organization dedicated to winning. There’s nothing controversial about this move. By opening day, their roster figures to be in excellent shape.
Stearns has $50 million tied up in the OF already. He will go cheap on another reclamation project and hope it works out.