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Clayton Kershaw

Roberts: Kershaw Likely A Couple Weeks From Throwing Bullpen Session

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Clayton Kershaw landed on the 15-day injured list a week ago, and it doesn’t seem his return is imminent. Manager Dave Roberts told Dani Wexelman of MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM this afternoon that Kershaw was likely still a couple weeks from throwing a bullpen session (via Jon Morosi of MLB.com).

When Kershaw first went on the IL, there’d been optimism he could return after a minimal stint. The club wasn’t ruling out the three-time Cy Young winner from throwing a bullpen session this week, and there seemed a chance he’d avoid a minor league rehab appearance. Kershaw felt continued soreness while playing catch, however, meaning the progression will take longer than initially hoped.

It seems the earliest Kershaw will throw a bullpen session is now at the beginning of June. He’ll probably need multiple sessions before progressing to game action, and nearly a month will have passed since the time of his IL placement. That long a layoff probably necessitates a minor league appearance or two before Kershaw’s able to make it back to Dodger Stadium. With that in mind, mid-June would seem to be a rough target date for his possible return.

It still doesn’t seem the organization is too concerned, as Roberts said earlier this week that Kershaw would continue lightly throwing. His current injury is inflammation of the right SI joint in his hip, which is obviously less concerning than a possible arm issue would’ve been. Kershaw’s 2021 season was cut short by forearm/elbow concerns, but he avoided surgery and returned to the Dodgers on a one-year, $17MM deal over the winter.

Before the injury, the eight-time All-Star continue to dominate opposing hitters. He’s worked 30 innings across five starts, posting a 1.80 ERA. Despite no longer possessing high-end velocity, Kershaw has struck out an excellent 29.4% of batters faced on the strength of a solid 12% swinging strike rate. He’s also only walked three of his 109 opponents on the season, maintaining his pristine command.

Kershaw is slated to be a free agent once again at the end of the year. His stint on the open market last winter seemed to come down to a return to L.A. or joining his hometown Rangers. If he finishes the season healthy, Kershaw would again be one of the best pitchers available, and it stands to reason both the Dodgers and Rangers would have continued interest in signing him.

Pitching Notes: Kershaw, Wacha, Hernandez, Mayza

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There had been some indication that Clayton Kershaw could be cleared to throw a bullpen session today, but Dodgers manager Dave Roberts told reporters (including The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya) that such a session won’t take place.  Some right SI joint inflammation sent Kershaw to the 15-day injured list on May 13, and while the star left-hander has started playing catch, it appears he is still some time off from a formal bullpen.

This doesn’t necessarily mean that Kershaw will miss an overt amount of time, but as Ardaya notes, it does rule out any chance that Kershaw will miss only a 15-day minimum.  While he isn’t dealing with an arm injury this time, Kershaw has dealt with enough health issues in recent years that any sort of IL stint is a concern, though the former three-time NL Cy Young Award winner has continued to pitch very well when he has been able to take the mound.

Here’s the latest on some other pitching-related injury situations from around the league…

  • Michael Wacha is slated to return from the 15-day injured list and start Friday’s game, Red Sox manager Alex Cora told MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo and other reporters.  Friday is the first eligible day for Wacha’s activation, after being retroactively placed on the 15-day IL on May 5 due to left intercostal irritation.  After a few rough seasons, Wacha looked to be on pace for a bounce-back performance in his first five starts with Boston, with an excellent 1.38 ERA over 26 innings.
  • At the minor league level, Cora said left-hander Darwinzon Hernandez will be “down for a while” after suffering an MCL sprain in his right knee.  Hernandez has a 5.95 ERA over 19 2/3 innings with Triple-A Worcester, continuing his career-long pattern of recording plenty of strikeouts but also far too many walks.  Over 78 2/3 career big league frames with the Red Sox, Hernandez has a 3.66 ERA and 33.6% strikeout rate, but also a whopping 17.6% walk rate.
  • The Blue Jays placed Tim Mayza on the 15-day IL Monday due to left forearm inflammation, and GM Ross Atkins told MLB.com’s Keegan Matheson and other reporters today that the initial indication is that Mayza’s issue is localized within his forearm and not his elbow.  Mayza is seeing another doctor today just to be doubly safe, as the reliever underwent Tommy John surgery in September 2019 and also missed 10 days last season due to elbow inflammation.  Since returning from that TJ procedure, Mayza has a 3.14 ERA over 66 innings out of Toronto’s bullpen in 2021-22.

NL West Notes: Melancon, Dodgers, Bryant

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Diamondbacks closer Mark Melancon took his fifth loss Saturday — a remarkable stat given that he entered the year with 30 losses in 13 prior seasons — and manager Torey Lovullo answered somewhat vaguely when asked whether the four-time All-Star would remain in the closer’s role (link via Jose M. Romero of the Arizona Republic). “We’re going to still have some more discussions about his availability,” Lovullo said while also accepting responsibility for some of Melancon’s struggles, which have come amid a heavy workload. Melancon spent a week on the Covid list from April 29 through May 6 and then made six appearances in a span of nine days following his activation. He yielded 10 runs in 3 2/3 innings during that time.

Signed by the D-backs to a two-year, $14MM contract over the winter, Melancon has surrendered 14 runs (11 earned) on 20 hits and five walks with just four strikeouts in 11 2/3 frames thus far. His fastball, which averaged 92.2 mph in 2021, is now sitting at just 90.8 mph. Melancon’s swinging-strike and chase rates are actually better than last season’s marks, though, and he’s been plagued by a sky-high .396 average on balls in play. If the Diamondbacks do go in another direction, veteran Ian Kennedy has ample experience and is second on the team with five holds, having been Lovullo’s primary eighth-inning option thus far.

Some more notes from the division…

  • Dodgers lefties Clayton Kershaw and Andrew Heaney could both be ready for bullpen sessions this week, manager Dave Roberts said at yesterday’s media session (Twitter links via The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya). Kershaw felt some minor soreness while playing catch but could be cleared for a ’pen session by Wednesday. There’s no specific day set for a Heaney bullpen, but he’s also been playing catch. Kershaw has a 1.80 ERA through five starts and 30 innings this season but recently landed on the shelf owing to a hip issue that was treated with an epidural. Heaney has been out since mid-April due to shoulder trouble but opened plenty of eyes early in his Dodgers tenure. In 10 1/3 innings, Heaney allowed only an unearned run on four hits and three walks with a whopping 16 strikeouts. Brandishing a new-look slider in place of his former curveball and having all but scrapped his changeup, Heaney posted a mammoth 20.5% swinging-strike rate and 36.5% opponents’ chase rate prior to landing on the IL. He inked a one-year, $8.5MM deal with the Dodgers at the beginning of the offseason. Kershaw signed a one-year, $17MM deal to return not long after the lockout lifted.
  • Kris Bryant is joining the Rockies’ Triple-A affiliate for a pair of minor league rehab games this week, tweets Danielle Allentuck of the Denver Gazette. If all goes well, he could be back in the lineup for the Rox by the weekend. Out since April 26 due to a back injury that the team hoped would require a minimum IL stay, Bryant will instead wind up missing three-plus weeks of action, at least. As Nick Groke of The Athletic writes, Bryant received a cortisone shot last week after an initial period of rest didn’t fully remedy his ailment. Bryant’s return could push the struggling Sam Hilliard to Triple-A, particularly with the out-of-options Yonathan Daza hitting well at the moment and thus giving the team a productive fourth outfield option. Utilityman Garrett Hampson is also capable of playing all three outfield spots, though he’s been primarily used as an infielder in 2022.

Dodgers Place Clayton Kershaw On Injured List

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The Dodgers are placing Clayton Kershaw on the 15-day injured list due to right SI joint inflammation, the club informed reporters (including J.P. Hoornstra of the Southern California News Group). The team doesn’t anticipate it being a long-term absence. Reliever Garrett Cleavinger has been recalled from Triple-A Oklahoma City in a corresponding move.

The SI joint is in the hip/pelvis area, so Kershaw is fortunately not dealing with any arm concerns. He missed most of the second half of last season due to forearm/elbow issues, so this latest injury would seem to register as a much more minor issue. Walker Buehler will take the ball tonight against the Phillies in Kershaw’s stead.

Kershaw turned 34 years old last month, but despite his age and last season’s injuries, the three-time Cy Young award winner has again been dominant. After signing a one-year, $17MM deal to return to L.A. during Spring Training, Kershaw has tossed 30 innings across his first five starts. He owns a 1.80 ERA with a stellar 29.4% strikeout rate. Owner of perhaps the game’s best command, the eight-time All-Star has only walked three of the 109 batters he’s faced.

Andrew Heaney is also on the injured list, leaving the Dodgers with a four-man group of Buehler, Julio Urías, Tony Gonsolin and Tyler Anderson in the starting staff for now. David Price has been out of action since late April due to COVID-19, but he’s begun throwing and could return to the club next week (link via Sarah Wexler of MLB.com). Price, however, has worked exclusively in relief this year and probably wouldn’t step back into the rotation out of the gate. The Dodgers also recently selected highly-regarded pitching prospect Ryan Pepiot to make his major league debut; Pepiot was optioned back to Oklahoma City after a start on Wednesday.

Dodgers Re-Sign Clayton Kershaw

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Clayton Kershaw is staying put, as the Dodgers announced he’s re-signed on a one-year contract. The deal reportedly guarantees him $17MM and contains incentives based upon his number of appearances. The Excel Sports Management client will earn $1MM for reaching each of 16, 20, 22, 24 and 26 appearances next season. He’d also receive a $1.5MM bonus in the event he wins the Cy Young Award next season, with a $500K finish for a second or third-place finish.

It’ll be Kershaw’s fifteenth season in Dodger blue, as the future Hall of Famer returns to the only organization he’s ever known. The front office allowed him to hit free agency for the first time this offseason, but team executives consistently maintained they’d love to keep him in the fold.

Very early in the offseason, it became apparent that the Dodgers and Rangers were the favorites for his services. The 2014 NL MVP didn’t tip his hand publicly about where he was leaning, but Texas and L.A. each had their respective positives. The Rangers offered the Highland Park native a chance to play near his hometown, in addition to the opportunity to reunite with Texas manager Chris Woodward, who’d previously served as a coach with the Dodgers. Yet Los Angeles offered organizational familiarity and a more immediate path to postseason play.

Kershaw is obviously among the greatest pitchers in franchise history, and it stands to reason the Dodgers would’ve wanted to keep him around for legacy purposes alone. He’s claimed five ERA titles, posting a sub-3.00 mark in eleven of his last thirteen seasons. He’s a three-time Cy Young award winner and finished in the top five in NL balloting each season between 2011-17. The veteran southpaw has led the league in strikeouts on three occasions and was a key contributor on the 2020 World Series winning team.

Yet there’s little question the Dodgers — again one of the top on-paper contenders in the league — also were motivated to bring him back because they believe he’ll still be an effective pitcher in 2022. The 33-year-old (34 next week) is no longer the undisputed best pitcher in the sport, but he was still among the top performers on a rate basis last season. Last year’s 3.55 ERA was his highest since his 2008 rookie campaign, but it’s nevertheless solid run prevention. And Kershaw’s peripherals were better, right among the top of the league.

Kershaw struck out a lofty 29.5% of batters faced while walking a minuscule 4.3% of opponents. His 16.7% swinging strike rate was a personal best, the number one mark in the league among pitchers with 100+ innings. He finished sixth in strikeout/walk rate differential (25.2 percentage points) and fifth in SIERA (3.10). Few other starters were that productive on a pitch-by-pitch basis, although Kershaw was limited to 121 2/3 innings and 22 starts by a late-season health scare.

The southpaw missed two months between July and September due to inflammation in his elbow/forearm area. He returned to make a few starts but dealt with renewed discomfort in his final regular season outing. That forced him to undergo a season-ending platelet-rich plasma injection, although he avoided surgery and has generally been expected to be a full-go for the start of the upcoming campaign.

Presuming his physical comes up clean, the Dodgers will install Kershaw back into a key rotation role. They’re in a better position than most teams to weather any potential concerns regarding his workload, given the depth on the roster. Walker Buehler and Julio Urías are at the top of the rotation, while David Price, Tony Gonsolin and offseason signee Andrew Heaney could all factor in at the back end. Dustin May could make a midseason return from May 2021 Tommy John surgery. It’s unclear whether Trevor Bauer will face a suspension from MLB, but he remains on the roster at present.

It’s an enviable group, and a top trio of Buehler, Urías and Kershaw could again be a nightmare for opposing offenses in a short postseason series. Yet it’s not out of the question the Dodgers keep trying to add there; they showed at last summer’s deadline in acquiring Max Scherzer they’re never afraid to pursue elite talent if the opportunity presents itself.

The $17MM guarantee will push the Dodgers’ payroll commitments — including projected salaries for arbitration-eligible players — to around $245MM, in the estimation of Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. They opened last season in the $248MM range, although the midseason acquisitions of Scherzer and Trea Turner pushed that figure up substantially.

Los Angeles’ luxury tax number (which is determined by summing contracts’ average annual values rather than real salaries) now sits right around $250MM. That’s $20MM north of the new collective bargaining agreement’s base threshold and right at the first surcharge marker. Los Angeles is all but certain to pay the luxury tax for a second straight year. Because they’ll be a repeat payor, the Dodgers would be subject to a 30% tax on every dollar spent between $230MM and $250MM; they’ll be taxed at a 42% rate for expenditures between $250MM and $270MM. As the club showed last season in blowing past all three thresholds, though, that’s not a concern for ownership in certain circumstances.

Kershaw’s return to L.A. no doubt will come as a disappointment to the Rangers, who had made no secret of their affinity for him. Texas has been among the most aggressive clubs this offseason, signing Corey Seager, Marcus Semien and Jon Gray in a pre-lockout frenzy, but the rotation is very light on certainty. Kershaw would’ve immediately stepped in as the Rangers’ top arm and a veteran voice for their younger starters. With him off the board, it’s possible Texas looks for more affordable stopgap options for the rotation — on deals similar to this afternoon’s $4MM reunion with Martín Pérez.

Kershaw and Carlos Rodón were quite arguably the final two top-of-the-rotation starters available in free agency coming into the day. Kershaw returns to L.A., while Rodón agreed to terms on a two-year pact with the archrival Giants. Yusei Kikuchi and Zack Greinke are the only currently-healthy unsigned starters who made MLBTR’s pre-offseason Top 50 Free Agents. With the top of the market now picked through, rotation-needy teams figure to turn to trade candidates who might offer mid-rotation or better production. The Reds and A’s are generally expected to make impact starters available over the coming weeks.

Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic first reported Kershaw was returning to the Dodgers on a one-year deal. Jon Heyman of the MLB Network was first to report the guarantee and the presence of incentives. Robert Murray of FanSided reported the incentive structure.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Report: “Industry Expectation” That Clayton Kershaw Will Return To Dodgers

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For months, it has been widely anticipated that Clayton Kershaw’s next destination will be one of the Dodgers or Rangers. Buster Olney of ESPN hears (Twitter link) “heavy industry expectation” the three-time Cy Young Award winner will be returning to Los Angeles.

Kershaw has kept his plans for the 2022 season fairly quiet, although at last check, it sounded as if he intended to continue playing. That wasn’t a given at the outset of the offseason, though. The Dodgers made the surprising decision not to issue Kershaw an $18.9MM qualifying offer, and president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman suggested that decision was to give the eight-time All-Star more time to mull his future.

I know (Kershaw) wants to take a little time with (his wife) Ellen and figure out what’s best for them and also more importantly, get to a point where he feels good health wise. We have no reason to believe that he won’t,” Friedman said in November. Los Angeles’ lead executive made clear the decision not to tag Kershaw with a QO wasn’t at all motivated by the team not wanting him to return in 2022. “We’ve made it very clear that if Kersh wants to come back, he will always have a spot with what he’s meant to this organization — not just looking back but with what we think he can do for us next year.”

Kershaw has already cemented himself as one of the greatest pitchers in both franchise and major league history. He’s won five ERA titles in Dodger Blue, posting a sub-3.00 mark in eleven of his last thirteen seasons. Last year’s 3.55 figure was his highest since his 2008 rookie season. That that kind of still-impressive run prevention was Kershaw’s worst in thirteen years is remarkable, and his underlying numbers reinforce that he remains a very valuable pitcher.

Last season, Kershaw struck out a lofty 29.5% of batters faced while walking a minuscule 4.3% of opponents. His 16.7% swinging strike rate was a personal best, the number one mark in the league among pitchers with 100+ innings. Kershaw ranked sixth in strikeout/walk rate differential (25.2 percentage points) and fifth in SIERA (3.10). That’s top-of-the-rotation caliber production on a rate basis, although his market has been clouded by a late-season health scare.

The southpaw missed two months between July and September due to inflammation in his elbow/forearm area. He returned to make a few starts but dealt with renewed discomfort in his final regular season outing. That forced him to undergo a season-ending platelet-rich plasma injection, although he avoided surgery and has generally been expected to be a full-go for the start of the upcoming campaign.

Plenty of teams would be in touch with Kershaw’s reps at Excel Sports Management were he shopping his services around the league. However, there’s never been any indication he’s considering signing anywhere other than the Dodgers — with whom he’s spent his entire career — or his hometown Rangers. Texas, which is managed by former Dodgers coach Chris Woodward, has been open about their desire to bring him back to the Dallas area. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News wrote last night that Texas had the payroll flexibility to make a run at both Kershaw and A’s first baseman Matt Olson, two players whom the club apparently regards as special targets. However, it has always seemed that Kershaw’s decision would come down to his preferred fit more than the amount of dollars teams would put on the table.

Latest On Clayton Kershaw

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The baseball world’s focus continues to fixate on the MLB lockout and today’s MLB-imposed deadline, but whenever the lockout lifts, the ensuing flurry of free-agent and trade activity has the potential to be historic. One of the most notable names among the yet-unsigned players on the market is three-time Cy Young winner and 2014 NL MVP Clayton Kershaw, who became a free agent for the first time at season’s end. The prevailing wisdom since he hit the market has been that Kershaw would either return to the Dodgers or sign with the Rangers, as Kershaw’s Dallas home is a short drive from Arlington’s Globe Life Field.

Bob Nightengale of USA Today touched on that fact in his latest MLB notebook over the weekend, writing that a former teammate of Kershaw’s expects him to either sign with the Rangers or retire. That’s just one third party’s opinion, of course, and that identifier itself is rather vague. (“Former teammate” could range from Corey Seager to Ted Lilly, after all.) It’s perhaps an anecdotal note, but any clues as to the eventual decision of a future Hall of Famer (and any shreds of offseason normalcy) are of particular intrigue.

It’s already been a huge offseason for the Rangers, who’ve signed Seager, Marcus Semien, Jon Gray and Kole Calhoun as they shift gears from an abbreviated rebuild to a clear win-now approach. Despite doling out a more than a half-billion dollars in free agent contracts, however, the Rangers still ought to have the financial wherewithal to add Kershaw.

The Rangers are projected for a payroll of roughly $127MM, per Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez, and they have only $80.25MM in guaranteed 2023 contracts to consider. Texas ran a $165MM payroll as recently as 2017 and, from 2014-18, averaged a $146.5MM Opening Day payroll. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News suggested multiple times in recent weeks that a Kershaw match could be in the cards, though the implication in Grant’s latest mailbag piece was that Kershaw would be their final major free-agent expenditure if he did sign (likely at an annual salary north of $20MM).

All that said, while the possibility of Kershaw changing teams is a fascinating one on which to speculate, there’s been no firm indicator that he won’t return to the Dodgers. Kershaw himself appeared on the Dan Patrick Show earlier this month and spoke broadly about the allure of playing on a perennial contender, even if it came with the difficulty of enduring repeated playoff exits (YouTube link).

Kershaw didn’t do much to tip his hand, but he did note that for the Dodgers, “the World Series is the expectation” every year. Dodger fans hoping for a reunion will surely point out the obvious: that has not been the case for the Rangers. Of course, there are broader factors at play. Kershaw noted in that interview with Patrick that he and his wife welcomed their fourth child over the winter, and proximity to his young family will naturally play a major role in Kershaw’s decision.

It’s worth noting, too, that Kershaw certainly didn’t sound like a player who had retirement on his mind.

“We have to continue to prepare like we’re going to play,” Kershaw said when asked how the lockout impacts his preparation for the season. “…I’m continuing to prepare like we’re going to start on time, but each day it just seems like we’re getting further and further from that.”

NL Notes: Wainwright, Dodgers, Phillies

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A 2022 season shortened by the lockout would have a statistical impact on every player, particularly veteran names like Adam Wainwright.  The Cardinals veteran is looking forward to one final season with retiring longtime teammate Yadier Molina, and if the duo joins forces for 20 more Wainwright starts, they’ll set a new record for most games started by a battery (breaking the Mickey Lolich/Bill Freehan mark of 324 starts).  “Any time you can say you had the most all-time ‘anything’ in baseball is a real accomplishment,” Wainwright told Rick Hummel of The St. Louis Post-Dispatch.  “I just look so much forward to having an opportunity to break that record with my buddy, Yadi.  I hope we get enough starts to make that happen.  We just need the season to start.”

To this end, Wainwright is hopeful of a good result in labor talks between the league and players, but feels “these owners are going to have to come around, though. They’re kind of crazy with their asks.  I guess when you own the company, you want to see how far you can stretch it.  The game of baseball is a very lucrative thing for players and owners.  The ones that get left out of that are always the fans, unfortunately.  Baseball sometimes just needs to get out of its own way and realize we could be the only show going.”

Though a delay to the start of Spring Training seems inevitable, Wainwright is continuing to work out as usual as he prepares for his 17th big league campaign.  This work was temporarily delayed by a recent bout of COVID-19, though Wainwright said his symptoms were relatively mild.

More from around the National League….

  • “The Dodgers seem to be positioning themselves to have a young wave of pitching ready in the second half of next season,” The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya writes, citing Dustin May’s return from Tommy John rehab and the impending big league debut of prospect Ryan Pepiot.  Los Angeles hasn’t been shy about immediately putting its young arms into key roles in the rotation or bullpen, so Ardaya believes the Dodgers will look to acquire a veteran “stopgap” kind of starter to cover some innings before the youngsters arrive.  Clayton Kershaw’s free agency also continues to loom over the L.A. offseason, yet Ardaya feels the Dodgers would “likely” still try to land that second-tier arm even if Kershaw also re-signs with the team.  Such moves would give the Dodgers six starters on paper (with Kershaw and the stopgap joining Walker Buehler, Julio Urias, Andrew Heaney, and Tony Gonsolin) before even considering the likes of May or Pepiot, though having a surplus would be a welcome problem for a Dodgers team that had its depth thinned by injuries in 2021.
  • The Phillies hired Chris Fonnesbeck as the top analyst in their research and development department earlier this offseason, The Athletic’s Matt Gelb reports.  Fonnesbeck worked in the Yankees’ analytics department from 2019-21, and also spent the 2018 season working as a consulting analyst for the Brewers.  The Phils have put a new focus on their analytics team this winter, hiring Arirudh Kilambi as the team’s new assistant GM and putting him in charge of R&D.

Mets Notes: Showalter, Rotation, Infield

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The Mets’ deal with incoming manager Buck Showalter was announced as a three-year contract, but while it was reported to be the most lucrative managerial deal in club history, terms weren’t reported at the time. MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets some specifics now, however, reporting that Showalter will be guaranteed $11.75MM in total over the next three years in Queens. He’ll be paid $3.5MM this season before earning $3.75MM in 2023 and $4MM in 2024. The signing falls closely in line with the three-year, $12MM deal that Bob Melvin secured when joining the Padres as their new skipper earlier this winter.

A few more notes on the Mets as fans continue to await meaningful updates in CBA talks…

  • The Mets haven’t been afraid to jump into the deep end of the free-agent market this winter, but despite some recent speculation about the possibility of Clayton Kershaw as a fit, SNY’s Andy Martino writes that the Mets didn’t have any contact with Kershaw’s camp prior to the lockout. As fun as it would be for Mets fans to dream on a rotation spearheaded by Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer and Kershaw, most expect Kershaw to either remain with the Dodgers or head to the Rangers, whose stadium is a short drive from Kershaw’s home. The Mets were linked to free agent Yusei Kikuchi prior to the lockout, while Jeff McNeil and Dominic Smith — either of whom could conceivably be part of a deal to bring in some rotation depth — saw their names pop up on the rumor mill last month. Beyond Scherzer and deGrom, the Mets currently project to lean on Taijuan Walker, Carlos Carrasco and some combination of Tylor Megill and David Peterson at the back of the rotation.
  • Matthew Roberson of the New York Daily News looks at the shortstop situation for both New York clubs, noting that Francisco Lindor’s presence at shortstop and a growing number of upper-level infield prospects could point to an eventual trade for the Mets. Ronny Mauricio is still just 20 years of age but has already reached Double-A, while 22-year-olds Mark Vientos (Triple-A) and Brett Baty (Double-A) will impact the third base situation in the not-too-distant future. There is, of course, room for the entire group to contribute to the Mets simultaneously, depending on position changes and injuries. That said, the presence of three well regarded left-side infield prospects gives the front office plenty of firepower to make deals at some point down the road if newly minted GM Billy Eppler finds a deal to his liking. Both Baty and Mauricio ranked among Baseball America’s Top 100 prospects last week, while Vientos landed on a list of 15 more who “just missed.” There’s no indication that the Mets have seriously entertained moving any of Mauricio, Baty or Vientos just yet, but their names will surely be popular as teams talk with the Mets post-lockout and again at the July trade deadline.

MLBTR Poll: Where Will Clayton Kershaw Sign?

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Clayton Kershaw is among the most interesting free agents still available. The future Hall of Famer is no longer the best pitcher on the planet, but he’s still highly effective when healthy. He worked 121 2/3 innings over 22 starts this past season, pitching to a 3.55 ERA with a very strong 29.5% strikeout percentage and a tiny 4.3% walk rate. Among pitchers with 100+ frames, only five topped Kershaw’s 25.2 point gap between his strikeout and walk percentages.

Yet the 33-year-old’s status is complicated by a few matters. First and foremost is health. He missed two months with forearm/elbow soreness between July and September. The three-time Cy Young award winner returned to make four starts, but he exited his final regular season appearance with renewed forearm issues. That proved to be season-ending, and while he didn’t require Tommy John surgery, he did undergo a platelet-rich plasma injection.

Kershaw is expected to be ready for the start of Spring Training. Which uniform he’ll don remains up in the air, though. He’s been a career-long Dodger, and the Los Angeles front office has predictably spoken about a desire to bring him back. The Dodgers declined to make him a qualifying offer, a decision president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman said last month was out of respect for his accomplishments with the franchise. There’s no doubt the team would welcome a return, but Friedman told reporters the pitcher wanted to take some time to ruminate on his decision with his family.

If he doesn’t return to the Dodgers, it’s widely expected he’d be donning a Rangers uniform. Kershaw’s a Dallas native who has ties to Texas manager Chris Woodward, who previously worked on the Dodgers staff. Woodward is already on record about the Rangers’ desire to bring him aboard this offseason.

Texas probably isn’t going to compete for a playoff spot in 2022, while the Dodgers look like one of the game’s top World Series contenders. Yet the Rangers would welcome both the high-end production Kershaw’s likely to provide if healthy and his veteran leadership for a generally young rotation in Arlington. If Kershaw and his family decide that a move to the Dallas area is desirable, the Rangers would no doubt be happy to add him.

There’d surely be other teams with interest if Kershaw casts a wider geographic net than Los Angeles and Texas. Assuming he’s indeed on track to be ready for the season, the eight-time All-Star would upgrade every team’s rotation. Kershaw himself hasn’t hinted at a decision one way or another, yet it’d register as a surprise to many around the industry if he signed with anyone other than the Dodgers or Rangers.

It’s also at least worth mentioning the possibility Kershaw decides not to play at all. Some may read into Friedman’s November statement that Kershaw “wants to take a little time with (his wife) Ellen and figure out what’s best for them” as a potential hint of retirement. In October, Kershaw had told reporters he hadn’t made any decision about his future (link via Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post). Turning 34 in March and still a well above-average pitcher, Kershaw still looks capable of pitching for multiple seasons beyond 2021, but retirement can’t be completely ruled out until he makes a definitive declaration about his desire to keep playing.

We’ll let the MLBTR readership weigh in with thoughts. Where is Kershaw likely to be in 2022?

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