Nov. 17: Suzuki is going to be posted next week, according to MLB Network’s Jon Morosi. That would give him approximately one week to negotiate with MLB teams before the CBA expires on December 1.
Nov. 16: It had already been reported that the Hiroshima Carp of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball were planning on posting outfielder Seiya Suzuki for Major League teams this winter, and now the team has confirmed those reports. After the team made the announcement earlier today, Suzuki spoke to the media about his planned transition, as relayed by Nikkan Sports and Yahoo Japan. (Both links in Japanese.)
Although the club confirmed that Suzuki will soon be posted, it doesn’t seem as though the posting has been made official just yet. This is potentially an important detail because once the posting is made official, it starts a 30-day window for MLB teams to negotiate with Suzuki and his representatives. If that clock runs out without Suzuki having signed an MLB deal, he will return to the Carp.
This year, that has the potential to coincide with the December 1 expiration of the Collective Bargaining Agreement, which could reportedly lead to a transaction freeze. Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic addressed this issue, reporting that “MLB and NPB were close to an agreement in which that clock would be stopped in the event of an industry lockout.” The wording is vague there, making it unclear if the agreement is actually in place or not, but that would be another noteworthy detail in this saga. Hypothetically, even if Suzuki were posted tomorrow, just two weeks would transpire before December 1 and the expiring of the CBA. If a transaction freeze were then implemented, Suzuki’s 30-day clock would be paused, leaving him with more than two weeks of negotiating time after a new CBA is implemented and transactions are resumed. Of course, all of that is contingent on that MLB-NPB agreement having been finalized.
Suzuki, 27, has been one of the best players in NPB in recent years and figures to have a robust market once the posting is made official. MLBTR recently ranked him 20th on the annual list of top free agents, noting that he has the potential to be a middle-of-the-order bat with competent defense, and projecting he could land a contract of $55MM over five years. Since rumors of his posting emerged, he’s already been connected to the Giants, Rangers and Red Sox. Any big league team that signs Suzuki would owe the Carp a fee equal to 20% of the contract’s first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM and 15% of any dollars thereafter. For example, if Suzuki were signed for $55MM as MLBTR predicted, the signing team would have to pay the Carp $10.125MM, bringing the total bill to $65.125MM.
If it only takes 5/55 plus the posting fee it seems like a risk Cleveland would be willing to take, but it’s so hard to get these Asian players to sign in the Midwest. I can’t imagine they have a shot even though it seems like a perfect fit. I guess the reds signed someone a couple years back so maybe there’s a chance
Cleveland is where I guessed him going. Seems logical
Atlanta could sign him. They don’t have a single outfielder under contract that is expected to start the season. Only Acuna and he’s hurt. Even if they keep Duvall and one of Soler or Rosario they will need to add at least one or two more outfielders. I like this guy at that price. If he busts it sucks to have him on a 5 year contract but if he ends up hitting like he has in Japan that contract becomes a long term steal. His numbers are so good I think he’s worth the risk.
Definitely Atlanta. So many teams will be in on him.
Don’t forget osuna!
I think he comes to Seattle because they can offer something no one else can. He can be trained and workout with Ichiro. That guy when he was in Seattle and not out helping the minor league teams. He would be out doing his stretches and working like he did when he played. He would catch BP for guys and work on pitching for batting practice. I guess that is a goal for him to throw batting practice before games. Always been a team guy. Would probably love to work with this guy.
Now Atlanta we have a few extra OFers we could trade to you. If you want to empty some top of the line SPs and a couple mid tier position guys you might get Haniger from us. Some mid range talent Trammell there are a couple more we could bundle a few for you too.
Wtiter talks about Torrens being the C of the team. You notice how not sure right around the AS break Torrens was never behind the plate? It is because he spent way too many times running to the backstop to get the ball. He lifts on low balls and they go under him. Not sure why but nobody would or should consider him a starter behind the plate unless it is someone in our Div. If that is the case he is great one of the best C so have seen.
Atlanta isn’t signing him they have not even tried to sign a Japanese player since Kenshin Kawakami.
@Braves Butt-Head: That might be true. A lot of people forget Kawakami but he was terrible. It’s hard to believe he won the Japanese version of the Cy Young multiple times before coming over here. How was he so good over there but so bad over here? I think that was a Frank Wren move though. That guy was the worst Braves GM I have ever seen. He got Kawakami at the same time he paid Boras a ton of money for Derek Lowe and BJ Upton. The Braves ended up releasing Lowe even though they paid him $60M because he was so bad. BJ Upton is arguably the worst overall contract in MLB history. He hit .232 the season before and Wren still paid him $75.5M. Upton never had a season with the Braves where he didn’t post negative WAR. Wren literally paid him over $75M to be worse than a triple-A replacement. The Braves could have saved all that money and won more games if they had just plugged a nobody into CF instead of Upton. And since when is a sub-.200 hitter who strikes out a ton and never walks considered a lead off hitter? I think Suzuki will be better though. He’s much younger than any of those guys and his numbers are really good. He’s only a year or so older than Ohtani and clearly that guys hitting stats translated from Japan. You’re right though. When they come from an Asian league there is always a question mark. The average player just doesn’t seem to be as good over there.
How is it Logical?
That’s an interesting question. He could be a high-production addition for a lower cost, which would appeal to Cleveland. On the flip side, can they take that kind of risk as easily as a big spending team like the Red Sox? He’s an unknown quantity. Unlike pitchers coming from Japan, hitters have had much less success short of the Ichiro and Matsui class. There’s been quite a few busts.
Don’t forget about Ohtani. I’ve heard that guy is a pretty good hitter.
Who?
Yes, the Mets should jump in quick & big Eppler has a record of accomplishment with Japanese players. if we could get him 5 yr. /$55 mil great but we should go big say the 5 yrs. with option or just go with the 6 yr./$72 million. He is young that would make him around 33yr. Plus hire a Japanese coach he wants to help him transition. Plus, help the other players with differ view or approach.
It actually is less of a risk. After all the money gets settled, these type of players can have reasonable contracts. Mark Canha, player in his 40’s will get 12 mil a year. To get a player at 27, for 10 mil or so, it is a steal.
Canha is 32 lol
Sorry for the error. Need to do a better job of editing before I press send.
This guy is totally worth the gamble. It’s not even that much money.
Depending on how a team really perceives him, it’s just money and even a team that has a position filled could then flip someone for another need.
He would solve Rangers LF problems for sure and he is young enough to benefit the club now and in the next contention period.
Rangers, Phillies, Mets, Guardians…no shortage of good fits.
I know I am heading into metsfan22 territory, but how great would it be to sign this guy AND Marte and trade a few of their slew of failed OF “prospects” for a good set-up / swing man…?
Thus keeping draft picks as well….
Sure. Lots of teams are looking to unload a good set-up/swing arm for failed OF “prospects”…
….hence my first few words….?
And I am sure there are a few 2nd tier teams who would see Ortiz, Haseley, Moniak etc (save Randolph (2015) who was given minor league free agency, but had a solid 2021 campaign) as change of scenery guys….As the Phillies minor league hitting philosophy screwed some up…
Teams are mostly willing to give first rounders a second chance…
But hey thanks…..
I’m not familiar with the Metsfan22 reference so I’m guessing I blew that one?? But my point, even if poorly stated, was that to get quality you usually have to give quality.
Mets definitely
going to the yankees
Nah. No room for him.
I wonder… Does the posting fee count against payroll for the purposes of the luxury tax? That is a factor to consider.
It does not.
Eppler will be ALL OVER THIS.
eppler is busy resigning yonis cepedes and taking cepedes on a golf outing.
*boar hunting
Boar hunting is awesome, bro.
Bro hunting is awesome, boar.
Better f’n be
giants man, if he does well he will be the Seiya hey kid.
Giants need a solid offensive and defensive left fielder.
I want giants to get him but his name is perfect for the Yankees tv play-by-play guy, Michael Kay. One of the best. Funny, Yankees radio guy Sterling is probably the worst.
Sterling certainly has his weaknesses and critics, but he is extremely popular. He’s got some of the best all time catch phrases. I’m partial to my Mets announcers (Darling, Keith H.), but who doesn’t enjoy “Gardy goes Yardy!!!”?
I enjoy him and I’m not a Yanks fan. He brings some energy/passion that covers up most of the flaws. Plus, isn’t he 85 and last year he was working off monitors for road games and at times it was a mess. But it was entertaining.
Even Yankees fans I know hate Michael Kay. I’d rather hear Sterling over him
He will be a Giant, farhan isn’t going to let this one go with the bank roll he has to spend and the need for that RH bat in the outfield!
The Giants also recently added Taira Uematsu to their coaching staff – the first native of Japan to be a full-time member of an MLB coaching staff. That would presumably be at least a modest additional selling point when they go after Suzuki.
The Mets need outfielders
I think they need pitching more than OFs. But yes they need OFs.
Mets seem to have a lot of “needs”. hmmmm.
Sort of makes you nostalgic for the Wilpon era. The good ol’ days.
Oh we definitely have needs!
Another Suzuki in Seattle. Nice.
Suzuki has the advantage of at least one month to decide which offer to accept once NPB posts him. He can see how the rosters are lining up and factor that into his decision. He’s totally in the drivers seat and all of baseball can only wring their hands and hope.
Get ready for star players to begin making their pitches and for the wine-and-dine trips all over the map…
im on the Rangers train now. easy fit, money to spend, farther West and more history with NPB players than most other suitors.
Possible replacement for Pollock in LF
No we like pollock
Mariners will be in on this bidding big-time.
and diputo will trade him in may.
Dipoto will sign him next week, and trade him in May? Because why?
It’s a joke buddy… Jesus
I mean… it’s not funny. There’s no basis. If DiPoto had a history of doing this, I would rolling over laughing. Jesus Christ bro.
Hope he’s not a complete bust like shogo akiyama but he does look bigger and stronger that that flop
Akiyama is in his 30’s with a higher strikeout rate. Suzuki’s game should translate.
Suzuki is in his prime, more complete player and way better than Akiyama.
He does look bigger and stronger than most Japanese players and looks like he could hit some hr in mlb. I think he’ll only hit around 240-250 range
Gotta believe he’s going to a West coast team. Preller will be all over it.
Seattle was BIG on Ohtani and even offered more $$$ than the Angels but Ohtani wanted Angels more
That’s working out swimmingly.
Yeah, who could’ve foreseen that not working out?
Having to pay the Japanese team a posting fee for Suzuki leaves the Cubs out.
Eppler will Sign Him.
Welcome to the Cubs
I wouldn’t mind that. Hopefully if it happens. He doesn’t turn into Fukudome.
Since when has the baseball become a gamble? They won’t take him unless they’re 100%.
Seiya is highly likely to succeed as his uncle Ichiro Suzuki did.
Ichiro, wasn’t made Special Assistant to the Chairman of the Seattle Mariners for nothing. His job is to recruit Japanese players. This will be his first big test. What proof do you have that they are related?
Last name is the same spelling. Duh
Signs with the Angels and then the Angels trade Adell to Cinn for SP.
Hey Jerry throw the book at him this guy is going to be a immense All-Star elite talent I don’t care where he plays as long as he’s wearing a Seattle Mariner uniform we lost out on shohei otani just barely let’s not make that mistake again
He looks to be the only one coming over this year. I have not heard any rumors this offseason on some of the prior guys like Sugano and Yamada.
Yamada signed a long term deal so he was unlikely but Sugano signed his deal last year with opt outs after each season giving him the ability to retry posting.
Sugano was awful this year in Japan he’ll never play in mlb.
I am sure Ichiro is on the phone to Seiya Suzuki as we speak. The bidding process is probably already over.
Royals 5 years 60 mill
How do you pronounce his name? Is it like “See ya”? If it is. The homerun calls write themselves. Especially if he were to sign with the Yankees.
“Seiya and Goodbye, a homerun for Suzuki”
He does look bigger and stronger than most Japanese players and looks like he could hit some hr in mlb. I think he’ll only hit around 240-250 range