The Hiroshima Carp of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball will post 27-year-old outfielder Seiya Suzuki for Major League clubs this winter, reports MLB.com’s Jon Morosi. Yahoo Japan reported two weeks ago that Suzuki was likely to be posted for big league clubs.
Suzuki’s posting will serve as a major storyline this offseason. The slugging right fielder is considered to be among the very best players in NPB at the moment and is putting the finishing touches on a monster season that has seen him slash .319/.436/.644 with 38 home runs, 26 doubles and nine steals (in 13 tries). That’s hardly a one-year fluke, either; dating back to 2018, the right-handed-hitting Suzuki has put together a combined .319/.435/.592 batting line with 121 home runs, 115 doubles, four triples and 44 stolen bases (albeit in 72 attempts) through 2167 plate appearances. Unlike many sluggers, Suzuki achieves this production without selling out for the power. Since 2018, he’s fanned in only 16.4 percent of his plate appearances — compared to a nearly identical 16 percent walk rate.
MLBTR has received a broad range of opinions when checking in with teams who’ve seen Suzuki. That’s in part due to the inherent volatility associated with signing star players from foreign professional leagues, whether it be NPB, the Korea Baseball Organization or the Cuban National Series. It’s also perhaps a reflection of the fact that scouts haven’t had the type of in-person access to Suzuki in recent years that they would have had prior to the Covid-19 pandemic.
The most bullish opinions we’ve gotten peg Suzuki as an everyday Major League right fielder — a solid defensive player with a strong arm and enough power to hit in the middle of a big league lineup. In an August profile of Suzuki, Dylan Hernandez of the L.A. Times cited a scout who called him the “best player in Japan the past few years,” and I’ve heard that sentiment echoed myself in doing background work on Suzuki. Baseball America’s Matt Eddy puts a 70-grade on Suzuki’s raw power (on the 20-80 scale), and at least one evaluator I spoke to thought he could produce 25-plus home runs with a solid batting average and strong on-base percentage. Suzuki is a four-time NPB Gold Glove winner in right field, and the expectation is that he can play average or better defense in the big leagues, even if he’s not a Gold Glover in MLB.
There’s obviously a fair bit of risk when committing significant dollars to any international star, and skeptics could point to the recent struggles from Yoshi Tsutsugo and Shogo Akiyama in their own transitions to Major League Baseball. However, Tsutsugo was seen largely as a pure power bat with minimal defensive value and preexisting strikeout issues in Japan. Sports Info Solution’s Ted Baarda took a look just today at why Suzuki is considered a much better bet to succeed in the Majors than Tsutsugo was. Akiyama, meanwhile, was five years older than Suzuki is now when he jumped to the Majors, and he didn’t stack up in the power department. Suzuki is younger and more well-rounded than both Tsutsugo and Akiyama, and we expect interest on the free-agent market to reflect that.
Once Suzuki is formally posted, Major League clubs will have 30 days to negotiate with his representatives. As a reminder, the current iteration of the NPB-MLB posting system did away with the former blind-bidding system and the $20MM-max posting fee system. Rather, the current system determines the posting/release fee owed to the Carp based on the size of contract signed by a player.
Any big league team that signs Suzuki would owe the Carp a fee equal to 20% of the contract’s first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM and 15% of any dollars thereafter. That fee comes in addition to the contract itself, and any subsequent guaranteed money (e.g. salary unlocked through performance incentives or club options) also falls under this purview. If Suzuki does not agree to terms with a Major League club, he’d return to the Carp for the 2022 season. He could be posted a second time next winter and would be able to pursue Major League opportunities as an unrestricted free agent (i.e. outside the confines of the posting system) following the 2023 season.
Nice. I think this guy has a chance to be good in MLB. It will be interesting to see what he gets and how he does. Someone will sign him with those numbers. If he busts at least we got to know that’s what happened.
Seattle will end up making a pretty big push for this kid, putting him in RF with Haniger in left and Kelenic in right until J-Rod gets called up then they will dangle Haniger in trade talks or see if he would accept a move to DH.\
Who plays CF?
Kelenic would have to keep playing CF, while not ideal I think it’s fair to expect him to make some improvements defensively.
According to Shannon Drayer of 710 ESPN Seattle, Julio Rodriguez played only centerfield the last month of the season and is extremely confident there. So the organization might be considering moving him there full time.
I heard Shannon say she doesn’t project Julio to play CF in the bigs, but I guess we won’t know until the time comes. Kelenic was borderline horrendous in center last year. I doubt he can develop into an average defensive CF. But then again who knows. I wouldn’t mind signing Starling Marte to play CF next year. Suzuki sounds intriguing, but we need a solid defensive CF desperately.
Oh yeah, I agree with everything you just said 100%. Would love to add Starling Marte. And not surprised, but interesting that Julio is so confident in CF and the organization is at least considering it.
If he can legit play a solid CF that would be the best possible scenario and would be awesome to see the big boy roaming center and mashing’ homies left and right… gunning dudes at the plate and stuff, with a big ole smile on his face.
Julio heard a rumor about his “speed” prospect rating. Acted like he was Michael Jordan and took it as a massive slight. Dropped weight, worked hard and started stealing bases like crazy. There is an outside shot now that he could be a decent cf defensively just tell him he can’t be.
That’s what’s up dannycore!
No way! you guys can’t have all the Suzukis! We want one.
🙂
Kevin Kiermaier will be available for trade, if you want the best defensive CF.
That’s what I hear.
You forgot about Kyle Lewis. He will certainly occupy one OF position. With Haniger coming off a big year it is probably time to trade him for pitching.
Kyle Lewis has played in 112 games in 3 seasons… and he’s hurt again. The Mariners do not anticipate him to be ready at the beginning of the year. And Dipoto has said anything we get out of Kyle Lewis in 2022 will be considered a bonus. He will not be counted on to be a regular in CF for 2022. Also his trade value is probably at an all time low at this point.
Lewis played 140 games between AA and MLB in 2019 and played 58 of 60 games in the MLB in 2020. Sure he was hurt last year but you really tried to mislead people here
Facts is facts Brother.
Agreed. Going to Seattle.
I’m going to become bigpapi4ever, but would love the Mariners to sign him. I expect a lot of teams to be in on him, a good amount of upside and won’t get a crippling sized contract.
Totally agree. With Kyle Lewis injury history I don’t think the club can count on him for a full season. His signing would also give Haniger the chance to DH a couple of times a week and give us some solid depth in the OF. Let Julio get his reps in AA and AAA next year and if he is ready a September call up.
With the departure of Little Miggy, the Brewers could really use some thump in their lineup. Suzuki also seems to fit their philosophy of strong defenses wins games, but I’m sure 29 other franchises would love to get a crack at signing him, too.
If he were Cuban, he’d be a perfect fit for the White Sox.
We have a history with Japanese players too.
Better update that top-50 list quick!
yep, pretty interested to see where these guys rank Suzuki
No need — he was already on there and featured prominently, haha. List drops early next week once option decisions, opt-outs, QOs, etc. are known!
Not Cuban????
Not interested!
#mascubanos
Iguchi. Shingo. Gene Honda lol.
Every team in baseball will be in on this guy. let the bidding war comence.
Does he pitch
Rangers please….we need all the help we can get.
If Boras pushes Conforto for a mega contract, I gotta think the Mets will let him walk and Steve will throw money at Suzuki. Possible plus talent, a new face, increased international audience and no draft forfeiture make him an intriguing option – if you believe the hype.
Dodgers should go get this guy. Won’t cost a ton, you’re losing Saeger and I know they got Trae Turner but you never know what you’re going to get from Pollock and even though Bellinger looked really good this postseason you really don’t know whah you’re going to get from him either.
If he performs in 2022, then he is a multipositional 3B/SS/OF, who gets on base a ton, has power and fits perfectly onto 29 ballclubs or however many of those that can afford him…….
Who are you referring to Professor?
Seiya Suzuki is a 26 year old who has a career OBP of .402 and has averaged 30HR per year the past six years. Granted, the Japanese league stats can’t be equated to MLB stats, but his track record suggests he does have on base and power skills which is what today’s game is all about. He hasn’t played the infield since his first two seasons as a pro, but 67 games on SS and 73 on 3B make him even more attractive to the versatility strategies the Rays, Giants, Dodgers and most successful teams do these days. At age 26, he will be taking some grounders in spring training and moved around to wherever the computer algorithm tells his future employer to put him in 2022……..fits perfectly onto 29 ballclubs or however many of those that can afford him…..
Cmon Mariners! We came up short with Ohtani let’s not miss again!
As a Carp fan I have seen him in-person and countless times on TV. This guy is the absolute best pure hitter in NPB. Power, line drives, hit to all fields, clutch, speed, great defense, sane and funny, loved by Hiroshima fans. Carried the Carp as they raged back from last place to almost secure a spot in playoffs, falling short by 2 games. Any MLB team that signs him is getting Ichiro with real power. We, Carp fans, will be angry, but I hope the Red Sox sign him if he goes to MLB!
Enjoy his swing: youtube.com/watch?v=thCQ00LSXU0
He’s definitely worth a shot, I’m curious what the bidding will look like..
He is the real deal in npb but lets see how he translates over in mlb. Position players often struggle plus most Japanese players have a preference on what teams they would go to. Would love to see how he would fit onto a team like the Brewers, White Sox, or Rockies instead of the other big market teams. He would also be a good fit for the Giants in my opinion
What makes him stand out is he doesn’t chase outside the zone. He has an almost equal number of w to k, especially the past 2 seasons. And he hits line drives, makes blistering contact with unreal bat speed. Average, walks, power, line drives, hit with power to all fields, blazing bat speed all combined with speed, power arm and gold glove D. Not anyone like him in NPB or MLB. And young and a presence. He is beloved here in Hiroshima. He will be the real deal in MLB. And some lucky team will get him cheap.
Mariners are out. They’re resentful of having to pay for interpreters.
He will choose the Angels so he can team up with Ohtani. They will find a place for him.