Tigers first baseman Spencer Torkelson and center fielder Riley Greene are universally credited as being in the upper echelon of baseball prospects. In his latest piece for The Athletic, Cody Stavenhagen breaks down the odds of either Detroit player making the team’s Opening Day roster. Detroit officials have been cagey about handing either first round draftee a starting job, owing to recent injury concerns and asterisks next to both players’ dominant minor league campaigns (Torkelson, owner of .935 OPS last season, has seen his batting average drop with each minor league promotion; Greene, owner of a .921 OPS, struck out 153 times in 124 games). Asterisks aside, both players are clearly primed for Major League action soon, even if some extra seasoning is required before they assume their natural positions at the big league level. The possibility remains that Opening Day is pushed back while the minor league season starts as scheduled, giving top young talent a chance to refine their approaches in the minors and make the Opening Day team.
Some other notes from the AL Central…
- One of Detroit’s less heralded minor league talents also has reason to believe he’ll be making an impact on the Tigers roster this year. Reliever Jacob Barnes, who signed a pre-lockout minors pact with the team, recently discussed with Evan Petzold of The Detroit Press why he eschewed offers from over a dozen other teams to sign with Detroit. Barnes believes the Tigers coaching staff can help him refine a pitch arsenal that has become inconsistent in the wake of injuries in recent seasons. With a fastball that can once again hit 98mph, the hope for both player and team is that Barnes can build on the form that led to droves of strikeouts and groundballs in his first three seasons as a Brewer.
- One last Tigers note, of less prudence but more international intrigue than the others. Per MLB.com’s transaction page, the Tigers have signed 18-year-old Clayton Campbell out of New Zealand to a minor league deal. The young prospect is viewed as third baseman at this point, though he also has catching and pitching experience. As an international free agent, Campbell was exempt from any restrictions that would prevent a team from signing him to a minor league deal during the lockout. He’ll look to work his way through the Tigers’ minor league system and become the first New Zealand native to reach the Major Leagues.
- ESPN’s Buster Olney has a piece of good news for Guardians fans, reporting that manager Terry Francona remains on track to return in good health next season. After a number of health woes the past few seasons, it certainly registers as a positive development to hear Francona is on the upswing. Cleveland brass, fans, and rivals alike know firsthand how impactful the 2-time World Series winner can be from the dugout, as he’s guided his club to a strong 753-601 record during his 9-year Cleveland tenure.
Their chances of getting a starting job out of spring training (or summer camp II!) will be greatly enhanced if they make service-time changes in the next CBA.
Tito remains the best manager in MLB.
No one else can get what he gets out of that roster every year. The day he retires the Cleveland baseball franchise is in big trouble.
Meh. He choked in 2016.
Didn’t know Bryan Shaw changed his name to Terry Francona.
How? That roster should’ve been nowhere near the WS to begin with.
Poor decisions with starters.
if both Greene and torkelson hit the ground running the tigers will be scary. if those young starters take a step forward, which I anticipate, their window will be open for a very long time. their rebuild just looks better than CWS did and I think Chicago has potential for a long window too. if the royals young players are as good as they seem to think the next couple years in the central will be fun
If I couldn’t live in the U.S., my second choice would be New Zealand. Beautiful country and friendly people.
Auckland “City of Sails”!
Been there and, yes, NZ is beautiful.
Hey, thanks guys, lovely comments. You’re more than welcome to come back when the borders reopen. Hoping to have baseball back in October (our Auckland Tuatara team plays in the Australian league), I’ve been missing it.
There are a few kiwis with MLB minor league affiliates – Elliot Johnson with the Mets, Kyle Glogoski with the Phillies and Ben Thompson with the Braves.
Yonny Hernandez of the Rangers played SS for the Tuatara in the last season.
Come on down, I’ll take you to a game (and you get to miss winter…)
I have family there. One of them is a pilot. My grandpa would go to visit them every year when he was alive. That’s all I know about em though, lol. Some cousins in NZ, Australia, England and a bunch in Canada. New Zealand is beautiful and I would love to go there one day myself.
Would love to return to NZ some day – maybe for the long haul. Very friendly people and lush green scenery.
Once COVID has passed and they start serving alcohol on the planes again, I may take you up on ur offer! Thanks.
We’ve been there twice, but it’s been a long time. We’re hoping to take the grandkids on some treks.
Good as gold 🙂
Haha, nice one!
I met a couple of your boys in Singapore. They were, to put it mildly, a bit imbibed. Fun guys, but they could pound back the brewskis.
@joebrady – very probably. I’d be surprised I’d there wasn’t singing going on. In the old days it was “10 guitars”, our unofficial anthem.
And, great wines!
Calling them “asterisks” for Torkelson and Greene is a real stretch. Tork went from High A to AA to AAA in his first Milb season. Greene was in AA and AAA as a 20 year old before turning 21 in September.
Regardless of age or experience, prospects that tear it up have to be moved up for their own development and you only stop when at last they are challenged. That’s what the Tigers did.
I didn’t really get the *asterisks* either. Torkelson hit in A+, AA, and AAA, and even at AAA, his K/W and power starts were perfectly fine. If there was a negative, it would be that he has only 431 minor league ABs. But there are no negatives on his resume.
On Greene, the Ks are high, but that is probably a function of playing AAA at age 20. It is still only a 51/22 K/W, which is maybe 2.33. A little high for a regular player, but for someone who is a year younger than Torkelson, and almost two years younger than the next youngest (Paredes), to me, those aren’t asterisks. To me, an asterisk might be ‘huge power but huge strikeouts’, or great bat, but no glove’.
I hope they change the service time deal. It’s stupid making a guy who’s obviously ready, wait until June just so the club gets an extra year of control. I’ve always penciled in Torkelson at 1B and Greene in CF when thinking about the Opening Day lineup. That’s why I don’t think…and hope…the Tigers don’t give Correa $300 million. If they did, They’d put Baez at 2B, but Schoop would have to slide over to 1B and again, I’ve always assumed, or hoped, that’d be Torkelson’s spot. Same with Greene in CF. He’d be flanked by Grossman and a combo of Baddoo and Reyes at the other corner. If Greene isn’t in the lineup opening day, then Baddoo & Reyes would both be in the lineup opening day, but that’s not a very impressive OF without Greene in it, imho. They could possibly get creative and sign Bryant for a corner OF spot and then trade Baddoo or Reyes or both. They’d still have guys like Hill and Cameron for the bench/4th OFer.
Baddoo will not be traded. Baddoo was one of the most exciting, breakout players on the team in ’21. Hill and Baddoo are in CF or corner OF, Grossman at the other corner. Haase, because of his big bat, will also get OF reps. Daz Cameron must be given at least 350 ABs at the major league level in 2022 to facilitate his breakout MLB season. Reyes is on the AAA shuttle back and forth to Detroit and Toledo and injury insurance. If the market changes and Correa falls into the Tigers laps, then I could see Baez moving to 3B and Candelario getting reps in the OF and/or 1B also. OR Candelario could be traded since many teams inquired about his trade status at the deadline. Candelario could land a youg stud starter and/or bullpen help.
Sportsfan, you’re not factoring in Torkelson or Greene. The OF will probably be Grossman, Greene & Baddoo/Reyes, with either Hill or Cameron as a 5th. Haase could get OF reps again, but if he does, it’s probably not a good sign with all the guys we already have. Haase will backup Barnhart & face the lefty SPers. And the Tigers probably won’t sign another OFer so you’re right, Baddoo won’t be traded.
Yep. Batting .259 is exciting!
Right now it’s about a two-week wait to gain that extra year of control. Waiting until June delays Super Two arbitration eligibility. I certainly hope they eliminate that gamesmanship.
Tork and Greene will get more seasoning in the minors before they are promoted to the majors.
I expect that both will get their first taste of the majors by mid June or the All Star break. Their strikeout totals must go down and their and batting averages must go up at AAA before they are ready for careers in MLB. Remember, these are still very young top prospects who have been “fast tracked” through many minor league levels.
To promote them too soo is a big risk to their development and confidence levels.
The Tigers do not want them on the AAA shuttle back and forth to AAA Toledo. The Tigers want them both to be ready to start and stay at the MLB level for their careers. And, the New MLB CBA will also factor in to the decision to a lesser extent as it should. Small to medium market teams, especially teams that did complete teardowns and rebuilds, must maximize service time for their best, top, young players and prospects. The Tigers have much invested in these two players and their entire rebuilt minor league system. They must maximize their long term control to open their window of contention and keep it open as long as possible.
A lot of times these prospects will tear it up in Arizona or Florida (80 degree temps) then go up north to Detroit, Minnesota, or Boston (40 degree temps) and struggle and have to be sent back down. This is one advantage of waiting until June.
I absolutely agree, Sports fan. The Tigers will not play games with their FA clocks. If they’re ready, they will start with the team. If they aren’t, they will start in the minors. If the new CBA drops control to less than six years, you can be certain teams will not rush players due to the shorter window of control. Reyes will likely be the starting CF until Green is ready, and then likely platoon with ether Green or Baddoo. They had worked with him to lose his crouch, and are hoping his upright positioning will provide more power.
Greene hit .298/.381/.525/.905 in AAA. He keeps that up in ST and he’ll be in CF on opening day. Tork struggled in AAA and had a slow start to the season last year so he probably stays down until he starts to crush the ball. Not sure when Ks became such an issue for a player with a .380 OPB.
I honestly think Greene will make the opening day roster while Tork may be held back just for a bit. This obviously all hinges on what they both look like in ST of course. I had the chance to watch them play at both Erie and Toldeo several times this past season (Its only bout 3 1/2 hrs between the 2). Greene stayed pretty consistent while Tork seemed to press later on in the season. I’m hoping I’m wrong and that they both come in and mash right away! But I also think that Detroit isn’t done shopping this off-season and that they will pick up another corner bat. Baddoo was excellent this past year but there’s always a chance of a sophomore slump, so to have perhaps Grossman, Greene and then maybe a Suzuki or a Schwarber would be awesome! Then you have Baddoo and maybe a Hill to play 4th OF or spell one of them to keep them fresh? Thoughts? Opinions?
Pls use paragraphs
They have Grossman,(switch hitter), Reyes (switch hitter), Baddoo (LH), Greene (LH), Hill (RH), Cameron (RH) and Haas (RH). They have no need to add another OF. Where they actually need depth is the bullpen. Chafin would be a nice add. I wouldn’t mind bringing Smyly back, but would really like Grienke tutoring the young arms.
When I speak of need in the OF, I speak of quality and not quantity. Reyes is barely a 4th major league OF at best. Haase can be considered the backup catcher and then play some OF/DH as needed. You have to make a decision on Hill/Daz as soon as ST, because they basically are the same exact player (great defense & no offense). So if we were to sign a corner bat, a few of them could be used as trade essentials to perhaps bolster a BP in need.
But I don’t think we’re in as bad as shape as others do when it comes to our BP. Fulmer, Alexander, Funkhouser, Soto etc is a pretty good start.
IMO, add Conforto- trade Reyes, & either Cameron or Hill (I personally like both, just like JaCoby Jones & Niko).. but, it’s time.
Load up on the OBP guys, and shore up the pen.
Glad to hear Tito is in good health. Him and Maddon 2 of the games best.
Derek Hill belongs in any discussion as the best defensive CF in MLB. Daz Cameron is an outstanding defender with a stronger arm. Victor Reyes is an excellent defensive OF too. Akil Badoo and Riley Greene are not as strong defenders but not weak either. I think Robbie Grossman and one of the above go on the block mid season.
The Tigers pen is still horrible.
Ehh, I would prefer for DET extending Grossman. I really like the way Robbie plays ball; and his attitude (although, I’m not entirely sure) seems perfect for the younger guys.
I agree the pen needs help. I’m not sold on Soto or Funk. And, I’m completely baffled on the decision to resign Jimenez once again.
Definitely need bullpen help. I think Alex Lange will develop, but I’m not sure who else is trustworthy in the late innings. My gut feel is that Faedo will end up in the pen. He hasn’t developed a starter’s repertoire, but could be a solid late inning reliever.
Drew Carlton is another one to keep an eye on. He has torn it up in the minor leagues.
I was disappointed Locke St John didn’t get a shot in 2021. Especially, when considering the ample opportunities Buck Farmer, Norris, Jimenez, Garcia, E. Ramirez were granted.
I think theyll hold Tork and Greene back to gain that extra year. I’m good with that. Hopefully they will get good by the end of the year. So if the pitchers progress as hoped Tigers will be real good.
Drink muck Kool Aid in Detroit? These writers are in cahoots with Al to hoodwink you guys.
Regardless of service time or skill, any man that can be kept off of the 26 man roster should be (including Mize, Skubal, Manning) – because that is a spot a tradable player can use to showcase at the MLB level.
Wouldn’t you guys rather see Tokelson and Greene with Abrams, Luciano and Hassell?
Mize and company with Whitley and Painter?
Al needs to work harder or hire the Superfife to govern.
And it just so happens, I’m available.
You’re in the minority, friend. Welcome.
I routinely pushed ideas related to trading for a long-term 2B and BP help over at BTV and the TIGERS end always ended up with a significant downvote ratio.
I think we’ve got a logjam in the OF and at some point people need to rely on coaches to maximize talent and worry less about keeping shorter-window guys like Grossman around for their off-field impact. He’s 32; if you can bring back a legitimate 2B prospect (TB Rays have both Brujan and Edwards and need a cheaper, better-offense upgrade from KK) then I think you need to move him in the summer when you (hopefully) promote a blossoming Greene.
We’ll see. But this is the first time I have felt confident with the outfield. And to think the majority is home-grown or Rule 5 developed is impressive (Greene, Baddoo, Reyes, Hill, Cameron).
People forget that Hill was a lost man due to injuries. If either he or Cameron figure out how to get their bats to even league average… watch out. You’ll have the best outfield in the league if you value defense as highly as I do. Especially for the home stadium, I have not been this pumped since Austin Jackson roamed CF. Time to get back to taking away the gaps on defense and using them well (a la Candelario) on offense.
Well, I am “old school” (for lack of a better terminology), meaning I am of the opinion if you are batting below .300, I am looking to replace you if I can; if you are batting below .270 (.268), I am actively looking to replace you.
The extra defense is great if you have hired pitchers you intend to trade for the prospects that are going to bat per expectations (keepers). (Up the middle should have good defenders; SS,CF,2ND).
I believe the Tigers just missed an opportunity with Oakland for Soderstrom. They, Oakland, could still contend if someone would help them with their payroll, especially with the right manager lol….
The Tigers will actually benefit greatly from a lockout lasting until around Memorial Day. With a relatively weak bench and young team looking to get off to a better start than last year…these 2 studs will be good to go on Opening Day
I think it’s highly doubtful that Tork or Greene make the team out of Spring Training. Not only are their positions set, doing so would cause a service time liability. Plus, Greene is only on the fringe of MLB-readiness. Tork is about an entire year behind him. But also, in Greene’s case, the outfield is already packed with capable players. What the Tigers could realistically expect from Greene in his first year is probably less than what they’ll get from the platoon they already have.
And, why are people thinking Greene will be playing CF? Highly doubtful, especially considering that Derek Hill played magnificently in 2021. I see Derek Hill in CF at Comerica for many years to come.
Half of Hills’ game is fine. It is the other half that wipes him out as an everyday player. He is a 26 year old-7 year minor league ball player w/ .249/.317/.360. DET can do better. IMO, just because anyone’s a first rounder and has been in the system for years, shouldn’t mean they stop looking for upgrades. IMO, this is why DET has been stuck for so long. Perhaps they’re afraid to cut ties with anyone who had any “projection” of being an everyday competitive player. A team can only have so many Daz Camerons, Derek Hills, Christin Stewarts, Victor Reyes, and Willi Castros, and JaCoby Jones. Eventually they need to move on, because the competition already has.
Well, he was drafted right out of high school. Those are very risky picks because they have so little experience. He struggled for most of his minor league career, there’s no doubt. But, he seemed to finally put it all together and earned a promotion to the bigs.
The Tigers haven’t been good at developing players. But, they are doing much better now and perhaps his stunted development is due to poor coaching that he may have encountered in the low minors. But, he did make it and I have faith that AJ and his staff are going to make him even better. If the can do it for Baddoo, they can do it for Hill.
PS, they have decisions to make on all of those outfielders. I’d hate to see Reyes go because I think he’s gonna turn into a 30-HR guy.
I hope he turns into a 30-30 guy… but i’m not sold on it.
Owners slave anti trust exemption.MLB players union is strong and united.Free Agency,service time,Arbitration,medical retirement,retirement benefits,profit sharing.Players are smart,competent,& rich.I predict a big win for the players.
Greene looks solid and I wish every team played their 25 best players.I want to see the Younts,Griffey,Tatis,Mays,Aaron,Woods of the world to exist again.Nothing more exciting then I young allstar.Stimulates excitement with the fan base.