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Scott Harris Discusses Tigers’ Offseason Priorities

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Scott Harris enters his first year in charge of baseball operations in Detroit. Hired as president of baseball ops shortly before the end of the season, he and his staff set to work on fortifying a roster coming off a 66-96 showing.

Harris spoke with reporters at the GM Meetings this evening and addressed a wide range of topics (via Evan Woodbery of MLive.com and Cody Stavenhagen of the Athletic). In broad terms, the executive expressed a general openness to any way of improving the roster, including the possibility of trading prospects for immediate big league talent. Yet Harris also highlighted a few specific areas the front office would like to address. On the position player side, he suggested the club could use a left-handed hitting infielder and a right-handed hitting outfielder. He also expressed an unsurprising desire for pitching help.

As far as the lineup goes, Detroit’s present infield indeed skews right-handed. Spencer Torkelson, Jonathan Schoop and Javier Báez all hit from that side of the dish, as do Miguel Cabrera and rookie Ryan Kreidler. Jeimer Candelario and Willi Castro are switch-hitters, but each could plausibly be non-tendered next week. That’s also true of lefty-swinging Harold Castro. Harris didn’t address the status of either Castro, but he did note the team had still yet to decide how to proceed with Candelario (via Woodbery). After two straight well above-average showings in 2020-21, the third baseman stumbled to a .217/.272/.361 line through 467 plate appearances this year. With a projected salary around $7MM for his final season of arbitration eligibility, he could well be let go after that down year.

Schoop and Báez are the in-house favorites for middle infield work, with both under contract for next season. Schoop had a terrible offensive season but played Gold Glove caliber defense at second base; he triggered a $7.5MM player option last week. Báez still has five years remaining on the $140MM free agent deal he inked last winter. He only managed a .238/.278/.393 line with mediocre defensive marks during his first season in Detroit, but there’s never been much question the two-time All-Star would get another crack as the everyday shortstop in 2023. Harris confirmed as much this evening, adding that he considered the dip in Báez’s typically strong defense an anomaly (via Chris McCosky of the Detroit News).

Perhaps the most interesting infield decision for Detroit comes at first base. Torkelson, a former first overall pick and top prospect, didn’t hit the ground running at the big league level. He managed just a .203/.285/.319 line through his first 404 MLB plate appearances, a supremely disappointing showing for a player who’d mashed at every stop before reaching the majors. At age 23, Torkelson still has plenty of time to figure things out at the highest level, but it remains to be seen if the Tigers will give him the Opening Day job again in 2023. Harris implied the organization still considers Torkelson the first baseman of the future but seemed to leave open the possibility of him starting the year back at Triple-A Toledo, saying “at (first base) and every other position, we’re going to look for ways to get better.”

Free agency doesn’t offer a whole lot in the way of left-handed hitting second or third base options. Adam Frazier could be a bounceback target after a down year in Seattle, while Jace Peterson looks to have a shot at a two-year deal after a solid couple seasons in Milwaukee. That could point to the trade market or waiver wire being the clearer path for additions, but the desire for a right-handed outfielder is easier to fill via free agency. Players like Adam Duvall, Tommy Pham, Chad Pinder and AJ Pollock are available corner players. None is a great fit for center field, but the Tigers seem likely to let Riley Greene get most of the work up the middle regardless.

While Harris didn’t specify pitching targets, it seems likely the front office will prioritize rotation additions. Casey Mize will miss most or all of the year recovering from Tommy John surgery, and it looks as if Tarik Skubal may not be ready for Opening Day after undergoing flexor surgery in August. Detroit could be without arguably their two best arms, although they did provide a favorable update on their other top young pitcher, Matt Manning. After a forearm strain ended Manning’s season a few days early, he was sent for a second opinion last month. That sounded ominous, but the Tigers maintained confidence he wouldn’t need to go under the knife and things appear to be progressing smoothly. In an update this evening, Detroit called Manning “symptom-free” and suggested he was in line for a normal offseason (via Stavenhagen).

That’s obviously welcome news that should position him to join Eduardo Rodríguez and Spencer Turnbull in the season-opening rotation. There’s still enough uncertainty at the back end the Tigers figure to dip into the lower tiers of free agency and/or turn to trades to add some stable innings behind that trio.

Tigers To Select Ryan Kreidler, Recall Spencer Torkelson

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The Tigers are planning to select infield prospect Ryan Kreidler onto the major league roster tomorrow, relays Chris McCosky of the Detroit News (Twitter link). First baseman Spencer Torkelson will also be recalled from Triple-A Toledo, seemingly filling the two vacant active roster spots associated with the September expansion from 26 to 28 players. Detroit technically needs to create a 40-man roster vacancy for Kreidler, but they can do so by transferring Austin Meadows to the 60-day injured list without affecting his eligibility timeline.

Kreidler is one of the better prospects in the Detroit organization. A fourth-round pick from UCLA in 2019, the 6’4″ infielder spent his draft year in short season ball. After the canceled 2020 minor league campaign, he was bumped to Double-A Erie in 2021. Kreidler performed well over 88 games there before mashing following a late-season bump to Triple-A Toledo. He entered 2022 among the top 11 farmhands in the system according to each of Baseball America, FanGraphs and Keith Law of the Athletic.

After the impressive late-season run in the upper minors, Kreidler looked like a candidate to factor into the MLB mix early this year. He broke his right hand in April, though, an injury that cost him six weeks of action. By the time he was healthy again in early June, the Tigers had fallen well out of the potential playoff mix, and they elected to give Kreidler a longer run in Toledo. He’s played in 55 games there this year, hitting .218/.359/.421 with a robust 14.7% walk rate but a worrisome 29% strikeout percentage.

During their midseason re-rank of the Detroit system, BA slotted Kreidler eighth. The outlet raises concerns about his propensity for whiffs but praises his defense all around the infield and solid power upside. The 24-year-old has played primarily shortstop in the minors, although he seems likelier to factor in at second or third base down the stretch with Javier Báez entrenched at short. Jeimer Candelario has underwhelmed at the hot corner all season, while the Tigers have turned to utilityman Willi Castro at the keystone with Jonathan Schoop on the injured list.

Kreidler would’ve needed to occupy a 40-man roster spot this offseason if the Tigers didn’t want to make him available in the Rule 5 draft. They’ll take advantage of the expanded active rosters to get a look at him a few weeks earlier than necessary. With the club’s attention squarely turned to 2023 at this point, there’s an opportunity for Kreidler to try to get off on a strong foot as he looks to carve out a spot next season.

Torkelson is already on the 40-man roster, of course. He broke camp as the team’s primary first baseman. The former first overall pick and consensus top prospect had hit very well in the minor leagues, and the club justifiably felt he could carry that over against MLB pitching. That hasn’t happened yet, as Torkelson owns a .197/.282/.295 line with only five home runs through 298 plate appearances.

After three months of struggles, the Tigers optioned the 23-year-old back to Toledo in mid-July. He’s hit .228/.347/.394 with five longballs in 34 games since then. That’s obviously far better than his first crack against major league arms, but it’s still well shy of the .238/.350/.531 mark he posted there late last season — particularly from a power perspective.

Torkelson is still a key piece of the future in Detroit, even if his initial MLB look was underwhelming. Manager A.J. Hinch seems likely to pencil him back in as the everyday first baseman for the final five weeks, with Torkelson trying to establish himself as the favorite for that job coming out of camp next year. He spent enough time on his optional stint that he won’t accrue a full year of MLB service this season, so Torkelson will be under club control through at least 2028.

Tigers Option Spencer Torkelson

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The Tigers announced to reporters, including Chris McCosky of the Detroit News, that first baseman Spencer Torkelson has been optioned to Triple-A Toledo. The corresponding move will be announced later, as today’s game was postponed due to rain, meaning the Tigers don’t play again until after the All-Star break.

The first overall selection of the 2020 draft, Torkelson immediately shot onto prospect lists, with Baseball America ranking him #5 overall in 2021. Torkelson did nothing to diminish his prospect status last year, as he mashed at High-A, then got promoted to Double-A and Triple-A all in one year. Across those three levels, he hit 30 home runs, 29 double and a pair of triples, producing an overall batting line of .267/.383/.552. He walked in 14.5% of his plate appearances and struck out in 21.5% of them.

Coming into 2022, he was again slotted into the #5 spot on BA’s prospect list and seemed poised for big things after cracking the Tigers’ Opening Day roster. Unfortunately, he hasn’t yet been able to translate his immense hitting ability to the big leagues. Through his first 298 plate appearances, he has hit just .197/.282/.295, resulting in a 68 wRC+. Put another way, that’s production 32% worse than league average.

Torkelson is still capable of putting a charge into the ball, as his max exit velocity is considered to be in the 80th percentile, according to Statcast. However, his hard hit percentage is just 39th percentile and his barrel percentage just 37th, suggesting that he’s not lining up the ball with consistency.

While it’s surely a disappointing result for the Tigers and their fans, it’s worth remembering that there’s still plenty of time for Torkelson to turn things around. He only spent one year in the minors before the aggressive push by the club to add him to the big league team. He’s still just 22 years old, turning 23 in August. Since the club is 37-55 and has no hope of a postseason push this year, they can afford to take whatever steps they think give Torkelson the best chance of long-term success, which they think will be some time in the minors.

Manager A.J. Hinch spoke to reporters about the decision today (Twitter links from Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic and Jason Beck of MLB.com), saying that they want to get him back on track away from the scrutiny that comes from being in the big leagues. “It’s much less spotlight to do it in Triple A than it is to continue to do this in the big leagues,” Hinch said. “He’s too good a hitter for us to just continue to let him grind at this level and not reach the desired results.”

As for the timeline or Torkelson’s return, it seems like that will be dependent on his results. “I told Tork it could be 10 days, it could be two weeks, could be a month. It doesn’t matter how long it takes to get him back to feeling good.” The length of time of this optional assignment could potentially have impacts for Torkelson down the line in terms of arbitration and free agency. Since he made the club’s Opening Day roster, he was in line to earn a full year of MLB service time, setting him up to reach arbitration after the 2024 campaign and free agency after 2027. A major league season is 187 days long, but it takes just 172 days on a big league roster for a player to earn a full year of service time. If Torkelson misses more than two weeks of action, he could come up short of the one-year mark here in 2022, therefore pushing his free agency back by a year. Players also reach arbitration after three years, though it’s also possible to qualify as a Super Two player, with the top 22% of players between two and three years service time being eligible. That means the target moves slightly each year, oscillating from 2.115 to 2.146 since 2009.

Tigers Announce Several Transactions, Finalize Opening Day Roster

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The Tigers announced a landslide of roster moves Wednesday as they set their Opening Day roster. Most notable among them is the formal selection of top prospect Spencer Torkelson’s contract. It was already known that Torkelson, the No. 1 overall pick from the 2020 draft and a consensus top-five prospect in all of baseball, would make the Opening Day roster, but his promotion to the big leagues is now official.

Detroit also selected the contracts of right-handers Drew Hutchison, Jacob Barnes and Will Vest. In a series of corresponding 40-man roster moves, Detroit designated left-hander Miguel Del Pozo for assignment and placed catcher Jake Rogers (recovering from Tommy John surgery), Spencer Turnbull (recovering from Tommy John surgery) and Jose Cisnero (strained right shoulder) on the 60-day injured list.

The Tigers also announced an additional series of placements on the 10-day injured list: lefty Andrew Chafin (groin strain), outfielder Derek Hill (hamstring strain) and righty Kyle Funkhouser (shoulder strain) are all beginning the season on the 10-day IL. Top outfield prospect Riley Greene is being placed on the minor league injured list after fracturing his foot late in Spring Training. The Tigers also announced that righty Elvin Rodriguez made the roster over infielder Willi Castro, and the team has assigned veteran right-handers Chase Anderson (Triple-A) and Wily Peralta (Class-A Advanced) to minor league affiliates to begin the year.

None of Hutchison, Vest or Barnes has an extensive track record of big league success, but they’ve all logged MLB action in the past and will give Detroit some bullpen depth early in the season, particularly while Cisnero sits out at least the first two months of the season mending a shoulder injury. That absence is perhaps the most surprising revelation in today’s sequence of moves. Cisnero was behind schedule to start camp and felt some discomfort in his most recent outing, but prior to today’s announcement there was no indication he’d require such a lengthy absence. It’s a notable loss for the Tigers, given the 32-year-old’s 3.45 ERA, 24 holds and four saves over the past two seasons.

Chafin, who signed a two-year, $13MM contract with an opt-out after the 2022 season will hope for a minimal absence. There’s been no indication from the club that he’s expected to require a long stay on the IL, but he’s been trending toward a 10-day placement since originally experiencing pain at the end of March. Hill has also been ailing since the final day of March, so his move to the IL doesn’t rate as much of a surprise.

As for the 29-year-old Del Pozo, he lasted the offseason on Detroit’s 40-man roster after allowing two runs on eight hits and no walks with four punchouts during a brief Detroit debut late in the 2021 campaign. He’s allowed a total of 20 runs in 18 1/3 Major League innings, however, and didn’t help his cause this spring when he appeared in two games and was tagged for a combined five runs in just one inning of work. Detroit will have a week to trade him or try to pass him through outright waivers.

Veterans Anderson and Peralta will give the Tigers some pitching depth in the minors to begin the season. Anderson joined the club on a minor league deal in mid-March and allowed three earned runs on nine hits and a walk with a pair of strikeouts in five innings during camp. He’s struggled substantially in the Majors across the past two seasons but from 2014-19 was a solid back-of-the-rotation arm, logging a combined 3.94 ERA in 857 innings between the D-backs and Brewers.

Peralta seems even likelier to be added to the big league roster, despite his assignment to a Class-A affiliate. The right-hander had a strong showing in Detroit last year after signing a minor league pact, pitching to a 3.07 ERA across 18 appearances (17 starts) — a total of 93 2/3 innings. But Peralta was slow to get to camp, owing to visa issues, and he’ll remain at the Tigers’ Lakeland facility, where their High-A team plays, as he builds up toward game readiness. Peralta didn’t make it to Tigers camp until this past weekend and didn’t have time to get into an official spring game, but once he’s built up he’ll be an option to join the club’s rotation or pitch in a long-relief role.

Spencer Torkelson Makes Tigers Opening Day Roster

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Spencer Torkelson, the former number one overall pick of the amateur draft, has made the Tigers opening day roster, per Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press (via Twitter). The team announced his official promotion via Twitter. Torkelson is the fifth-ranked prospect in the game per Baseball America, and fourth-ranked prospect overall by MLB.com and Baseball Prospectus.

The news comes, perhaps not uncoincidentally, on the same day that Riley Greene, Detroit’s other top position player prospect, has been announced out to start the year with a foot fracture. Greene is perhaps the more important of the two, given his defensive prominence as a center fielder, but it will be Torkelson with the first opportunity to establish himself in Detroit’s lineup.

Still, Torkelson’s quick rise through the system is impressive. The 22-year-old was the top pick in the draft out of Arizona State in the June 2020 draft, not even two years ago. In his one pro season, Torkelson rose from High-A, through Double-A to the top development level in the sport, playing 40 games in Triple-A and hitting .231/.350/.531 line across 177 plate appearances. Across all three levels, Torkelson posted an impressive .267/.383/.552 line over 530 plate appearances.

Tigers Notes: Manaea, Montas, Greinke, Torkelson, Greene

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The Tigers have had an active offseason, acquiring Javier Báez, Eduardo Rodríguez, Andrew Chafin and Tucker Barnhart. They could still use some help at the back of the rotation, though, and they’ve been tied to a few starting pitchers in recent days.

Jon Heyman of the MLB Network tweeted last night that Detroit was among the teams in discussions with the A’s about Frankie Montas and Sean Manaea. It is widely believed Oakland will move one or both of those players, as the A’s have kicked off their long-rumored reboot since the lockout was lifted. Chris Bassitt, Matt Olson and Matt Chapman have already been shipped out. Manaea, entering his final year of club control, seems a lock to change teams. Montas has an additional year of control, but that was also true of Chapman and Olson.

Either would be a marked upgrade to the rotation, beyond a typical back-of-the-rotation acquisition. Manaea tossed 179 1/3 innings of 3.91 ERA/3.68 SIERA ball last season, his third sub-4.00 showing in four full seasons. Montas was even better, pitching to a 3.37 ERA in 187 frames with a strong 26.6% strikeout rate.

The A’s two starters may be the top two arms available to pitching-needy clubs. Every currently healthy starting pitcher who made MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents list entering the offseason has already signed. The Reds don’t intend to trade Luis Castillo or Tyler Mahle, leaving few obvious remaining trade candidates.

Detroit general manager Al Avila met with reporters (including Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free-Press) this afternoon. He acknowledged that the market was “thinning out a little bit” but said the front office was “still trying to improve the team.” The Tigers were reportedly involved in the bidding for Zack Greinke before the six-time All-Star returned to the Royals on a $13MM deal. Avila confirmed as much today, saying “we were in the Greinke situation” but that the righty preferred to “(go) back to Kansas City and the place where he started.” Avila implied the Tigers were prepared to make an offer at least competitive with the Royals’ proposal but suggested Detroit was at a geographic disadvantage against their division rivals.

Asked about the possibility of acquiring one of the A’s hurlers, Avila said they’ve looked into making an impact acquisition via trade but expressed a desire “to be careful” in not parting with too much prospect talent. Montas, given his two years of control and superior numbers, would bring back more in return than would Manaea.

Speaking of top prospects, Avila addressed the status of Spencer Torkelson and Riley Greene. Both young hitters are among Baseball America’s top five overall minor league talents, and each had excellent late-season showings with Triple-A Toledo last year. Whether either of Torkelson or Greene will make the Opening Day roster is one of the biggest questions for the organization.

Avila denied that service time considerations would play a role in whether to carry those players out of camp. “When a player is ready to come up, and the team is ready to go, there’s no reason to hold a player back. I was not taught that way,” the GM said, via Petzold. “I also believe I’m not arrogant enough to think that I could hold a guy back and we’re going to get by and we’re going to make the playoffs anyway. You got to go full bore from Day 1. Those few games at the beginning could mean everything at the end. That’s the way I was taught. Our decision is going to be to put the best team on the field where we can win and get to the playoffs.”

To be clear, that’s not a formal declaration that either of Greene or Torkelson will break camp. Avila said the front office will “know it when we see it” when asked about when those players will be ready for their debuts. There’d seem to be a real opportunity for either to open the year on the MLB roster. Putting Torkelson at first could allow Jonathan Schoop to kick back to second base, which might otherwise be manned by Willi Castro or Harold Castro. Greene could be an option for either left or center field, where he’d presumably be complemented by Akil Baddoo and Robbie Grossman, with Víctor Reyes moving into a fourth outfield role.

Tigers Notes: Turnbull, Torkelson, Greene, Barnhart

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Spencer Turnbull was off to a strong start to the 2021 season, working 50 innings of 2.88 ERA ball with a massive 57.2% ground-ball rate over his first nine starts — one of which was a no-hitter against the Mariners. After those productive first two months, the right-hander landed on the injured list with what was originally termed a forearm strain. Early reports indicated that Turnbull may be able to avoid a long-term absence, but it emerged in mid-July that he’d torn his UCL and required Tommy John surgery. That procedure obviously ended his season and its timing cast his 2022 campaign in similar doubt. TJS procedures often require around 14 months of rehab time, raising a question of whether the University of Alabama product will be available at all this year.

Speaking with Chris McCosky of the Detroit News this afternoon, Turnbull expressed optimism about his chances of making it back to the majors late in the season. He tells McCosky he’s been throwing on flat ground for the past few weeks and generally feels his arm is progressing well. Like other players rehabbing from injury, he’s been unable to communicate with team personnel during the lockout. Turnbull described the situation as “weird” and “not ideal” but maintained he’s confident in the non-Tigers medical staff currently leading his recovery. The 29-year-old is controllable through 2024 via arbitration and projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a modest $1.8MM salary this season.

More out of Detroit:

  • The delay to Opening Day puts the Tigers in an odd position with top prospects Spencer Torkelson and Riley Greene, writes Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic. Both were expected to be in the mix for Opening Day roster spots, but the season’s delay will now likely push Major League Spring Training back to the point where it overlaps with the Triple-A season. The Tigers could be faced with pulling the pair from a more competitive setting in Triple-A to fly them back down to Florida for exhibition play — and then perhaps disrupting their season by sending them back to Toledo (where the team’s Triple-A affiliate plays) if either player is ultimately reassigned. It’s not a situation that’s unique to the Tigers, and one could even argue that Detroit is in an advantageous position, given that their two best prospects — both considered Top 10 throughout all of MLB — are both off the 40-man roster. The fact that neither is on the 40-man yet means that both are at least able to work out with team staff at their spring facility in Lakeland. Still, the organization faced a potentially difficult decision in the first place, and the delay to Opening Day adds another layer. Stavenhagen also has quotes from both players on the matter and some general observations from minicamp.
  • The Tigers kicked off their offseason by acquiring backstop Tucker Barnhart from the Reds. The seven-year veteran has taken on an active role in the MLB Players Association for the bulk of his career, and he’s been involved in the union’s efforts during this stage of collective bargaining talks. Barnhart spoke with Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free-Press in the wake of the league’s announcement Tuesday that it was canceling the first two series of the regular season. The two-time Gold Glove winner, who wasn’t attending this week’s negotiations in-person, admitted he woke up Tuesday morning believing the parties would finalize a new CBA in time to avoid that outcome based on the optimistic reports that had trickled out the night before. However, Barnhart says he learned Tuesday morning that while the previous night’s discussions had made some progress, the gaps hadn’t been closed as much as had seemed — a common refrain echoed by many on the players’ side. He and Petzold discuss the various issues that remain to be sorted out.

Tigers Notes: Torkelson, Greene, Hess

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The Tigers announced Spencer Torkelson as a third baseman when they selected him with the first overall pick in the 2020 draft. That was in spite of the fact that Torkelson was primarily a first baseman/corner outfielder at Arizona State University, where fellow prospects Alika Williams, Drew Swift and Gage Workman generally covered the more demanding positions on the dirt. The primary selling point for Torkelson has always been his bat, but there was no harm for the Tigers in giving him some action on a position of higher import in the minors.

Last season, Torkelson started 75 minor league games at first base while logging 43 starts at the hot corner. He played exclusively first base upon reaching Triple-A in mid-August, though, and Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press writes that he’s worked solely at first thus far in minor league minicamp. Petzold suggests the Tigers view Torkelson as a permanent first baseman moving forward. That’s largely been the opinion of most prospect evaluators anyhow, yet the 22-year-old is still regarded among the top handful of minor league talents in the game. After hitting .267/.383/.552 across three levels in his first full professional season, Torkelson was rated by Baseball America as the sport’s No. 5 overall farmhand. He figures to be the Tigers regular first baseman before long, where’d he join Jonathan Schoop, Jeimer Candelario and Javier Baez in the primary infield.

More out of the Motor City:

  • Petzold also profiles fellow top prospect Riley Greene, the No. 5 overall selection from the 2019 draft, noting that Greene has a “good chance” to break camp with the Major League club in 2022. Greene, ranked by Baseball America as the game’s No. 4 overall prospect (one spot ahead of Torkelson), will vie with former first-rounder Derek Hill and Victor Reyes for an outfield spot alongside veteran Robbie Grossman and Rule 5 sensation Akil Baddoo. The 21-year-old Greene posted a massive .301/.387/.534 with 24 home runs, 25 doubles, eight triples and 16 stolen bases (in 17 attempts). Greene did fan in 27.4% of his plate appearances, but his power and a hearty 11.3% walk rate helped to combat those punchouts. If Greene does break camp with the big league club, he’d be penciled in as manager AJ Hinch’s everyday center fielder. It’d be a departure from conventional industry wisdom, as top minor leaguers such as Greene and Torkelson are regularly held down for a few weeks early in the season to secure a seventh year of club control. The Tigers are aiming to get back to contention this season, however, and an extra few weeks of their best prospect(s) could prove vital in that regard. It’s also possible, of course, that changes to the service time mechanics are agreed upon under the forthcoming collective bargaining agreement anyhow.
  • Right-handed pitching prospect Zack Hess will miss the entire 2022 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in January, reports Chris McCosky of the Detroit News (Twitter link). Hess, who’ll turn 25 this week, ranks 25th among Detroit farmhands over at FanGraphs and, based on his 2021 output, might’ve eventually emerged as a big league bullpen option in 2022 had he been healthy. The 2019 seventh-rounder posted a combined 3.42 ERA and punched out 29.6% of his opponents between Class-A Advanced (49 2/3 innings) and Double-A (three innings) this past season. He also allowed just six homers in that time (1.02 HR/9). The big red flag for Hess was command, as he also issued a free pass to 15% of his opponents. Hess will need to improve upon that command, of course, but he won’t have the opportunity to hone that skill until the 2023 season at the earliest, it seems.

Who’s Blocking Spencer Torkelson?

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In 2019, the Detroit Tigers finished the season with a record of 47-114, easily the worst in the league that year. The silver lining in a season that bad is receiving the first overall selection in the next year’s draft. The Tigers used the first overall pick in the 2020 draft on Spencer Torkelson, a first baseman out of Arizona State University. (At the time, the club announced him as a third baseman, despite him not playing that position in college.)

Torkelson wasn’t able to play any organized ball for the Tigers that year, as the pandemic wiped out all of the minor league seasons, but 2021 was a rocketship ride up the minor league ladder. He started the year in High-A, playing 31 games and mashing at a rate of .312/.440/.569, wRC+ of 171. A promotion to a higher quality of competition in Double-A dampened his production, but only slightly. In 50 games there, he hit .263/.373/.560, for a wRC+ of 148. He was promoted yet again and got into 40 Triple-A games. Although the higher quality of pitching led to a decreased batting average, he still hit for power and drew walks, slashing .238/.350/.531, 129 wRC+. After that, he went to the Arizona Fall League but was sidelined with an ankle injury after just seven games. He is expected to be fully recovered for spring training. He is now considered the #4 prospect in all of baseball by all three of Baseball America, MLB Pipeline and FanGraphs.

After that tremendous showing at all levels, he seems a virtual lock to join the big leagues in 2022, the only questions will be about the date and which position he plays. In college, Torkelson primarily played first base, with a bit of outfield work sprinkled in. But when the Tigers drafted him, they announced him as a third baseman. In 2021, he played first and third somewhat evenly to start the year, with first base taking over as the season wore on. At High-A, he got into 15 games at first and 16 at third, with his Double-A stint featuring 23 at first and 27 at third. But in Triple-A, he played first base in 37 games, none at the hot corner. However, he did get into a couple of games at third base in the Arizona Fall League before the injury.

First base would seem to be the best path to playing time for Torkelson, both because of his greater experience at the position and because of the current makeup of the Tigers’ roster. Jeimer Candelario seems to have locked himself in as the third baseman after a strong pair of seasons with the bat. In the shortened 2020 season, he hit .297/.369/.503 for a wRC+ of 138 over 52 games. Although he played more first base than third that year, he moved across the diamond in 2021, playing 142 games at third and not appearing at first at all. Statcast considered him to be a roughly league-average defender, as he finished the year at -1 Outs Above Average. He also had another good year at the plate, hitting .271/.351/.443, 119 wRC+.

The situation at first base, however, can fit Torkelson into the picture much more easily. The Tigers gave most of the first base playing time to Jonathan Schoop in 2021, as he appeared in 114 games there. But that was Schoop’s first showing at the position, as he had largely been a second baseman prior to that. He even played 38 games at the keystone last year. If Torkelson were to take over at first base, Schoop could slide back to his traditional position at second. That would create a bit of a crowd in the middle infield for the Tigers, as they signed Javier Baez to take over the shortstop position. If Schoop was getting regular playing time at second, there would be little room for younger players like Harold Castro, Willi Castro, Isaac Paredes and Zack Short. None of those players have fully cemented themselves as everyday regulars just yet, but for a Tigers team that is looking to emerge from a lengthy rebuild, it should still be a priority to give chances for unproven players to blossom and take a step forward.

One way to help with this crowding would be to rotate these players through the designated hitter slot, giving them a bit of a rest while still getting reps in the batter’s box. However, that raises the question of how many DH at-bats will be going to Miguel Cabrera. While there’s no questioning he’s one of the greatest hitters of his generation, he hasn’t been an above-average hitter over a full season since 2016. His wRC+ dropped to 92 in 2017, then bounced back to 127 in 2018, though injuries cut his season short after just 38 games. In 2019, he dropped just below the league average of 100 again, coming in at 97. He snuck over the line in 2020 with a mark of 103, though that was the pandemic-shortened campaign. In 2021, he dropped down to 92 again.

Up until now, letting the veteran continue to play out his contract and hit career milestones hasn’t been an issue as the team hasn’t been earnestly trying to compete for some time. But push will likely come to shove at some point, as the club has already spent a lot of money this offseason in order to wipe their hands of this lengthy rebuild. Even if they don’t become AL Central favorites right out of the gate in 2022, Cabrera still has two guaranteed years remaining on his contract and will turn 39 in April. After getting 526 plate appearances in 130 games in 2021, how much rope will he get going forward? Is he destined to be squeezed out by younger players and eventually let loose in a similar manner to what happened to Albert Pujols last year? Or at least nudged into the type of bench role that Pujols settled into with the Dodgers? Cabrera is sitting on 2,987 hits and will surely be given the chance to cross the monumental 3,000 barrier, but at a certain point, the team’s desire to compete will clash with their desire for Cabrera to get the proper legacy treatment.

Regardless of how it plays out, the future seems bright for the Tigers. They have a roster with heaps of young talent that showed signs of promise in 2021. After a miserable 8-19 start in April, they went 69-66 the rest of the way. Since then, they’ve added Baez,  Eduardo Rodriguez, and Tucker Barnhart to try and take them to the next level. With prospects like Torkelson, Riley Greene and Dillon Dingler on the way to help as well, they seem poised to be a fun and competitive team for years to come.

AL Central Notes: Torkelson, Greene, Barnes, New Zealand, Tito

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Tigers first baseman Spencer Torkelson and center fielder Riley Greene are universally credited as being in the upper echelon of baseball prospects. In his latest piece for The Athletic, Cody Stavenhagen breaks down the odds of either Detroit player making the team’s Opening Day roster. Detroit officials have been cagey about handing either first round draftee a starting job, owing to recent injury concerns and asterisks next to both players’ dominant minor league campaigns (Torkelson, owner of .935 OPS last season, has seen his batting average drop with each minor league promotion; Greene, owner of a .921 OPS, struck out 153 times in 124 games). Asterisks aside, both players are clearly primed for Major League action soon, even if some extra seasoning is required before they assume their natural positions at the big league level. The possibility remains that Opening Day is pushed back while the minor league season starts as scheduled, giving top young talent a chance to refine their approaches in the minors and make the Opening Day team.

Some other notes from the AL Central…

  • One of Detroit’s less heralded minor league talents also has reason to believe he’ll be making an impact on the Tigers roster this year. Reliever Jacob Barnes, who signed a pre-lockout minors pact with the team, recently discussed with Evan Petzold of The Detroit Press why he eschewed offers from over a dozen other teams to sign with Detroit. Barnes believes the Tigers coaching staff can help him refine a pitch arsenal that has become inconsistent in the wake of injuries in recent seasons. With a fastball that can once again hit 98mph, the hope for both player and team is that Barnes can build on the form that led to droves of strikeouts and groundballs in his first three seasons as a Brewer.
  • One last Tigers note, of less prudence but more international intrigue than the others. Per MLB.com’s transaction page, the Tigers have signed 18-year-old Clayton Campbell out of New Zealand to a minor league deal. The young prospect is viewed as third baseman at this point, though he also has catching and pitching experience. As an international free agent, Campbell was exempt from any restrictions that would prevent a team from signing him to a minor league deal during the lockout. He’ll look to work his way through the Tigers’ minor league system and become the first New Zealand native to reach the Major Leagues.
  • ESPN’s Buster Olney has a piece of good news for Guardians fans, reporting that manager Terry Francona remains on track to return in good health next season. After a number of health woes the past few seasons, it certainly registers as a positive development to hear Francona is on the upswing. Cleveland brass, fans, and rivals alike know firsthand how impactful the 2-time World Series winner can be from the dugout, as he’s guided his club to a strong 753-601 record during his 9-year Cleveland tenure.
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