The free agent starting pitching market moved very quickly before the transactions freeze. Carlos Rodón and Clayton Kershaw are the clear top two starters remaining, and it seems Kershaw’s market could be limited by geographical concerns. That’d leave Rodón as the lone potential top-of-the-rotation arm available in free agency, but his status is complicated by health questions.
Rodón’s story has been covered a few times this offseason. After a few injury-plagued years, the former #3 overall pick broke out with an ace-caliber first half. He was a deserved All-Star and on a potential Cy Young pace until hitting the injured list with discomfort in his throwing shoulder in August. He missed a few weeks — albeit after it was apparent the White Sox were coasting to an AL Central title — before returning to make a few starts at the end of the season.
While Rodón continued to be effective after that IL stint, the average velocity on both his fastball and slider ticked down a couple miles per hour. Rodón’s fastball velocity ramped back up during his lone postseason start (his slider speed did not), but he was knocked out after just 2 2/3 innings during a rough outing against the Astros. The White Sox were eliminated before he got another opportunity to take the hill.
It wasn’t an ideal finish, but Rodón’s season-long production was excellent. He posted a 2.37 ERA with a massive 34.6% strikeout rate over 132 2/3 regular season innings, showcasing dominant swing-and-miss stuff at his best. Yet the White Sox declined to make the 29-year-old a qualifying offer, perhaps indicating some trepidation on the club’s part about his health. Given that durability uncertainty, MLBTR forecasted Rodón to take a one-year, $25MM deal in hopes of duplicating his excellent 2021 numbers in search of nine figures next offseason.
That doesn’t seem to be a course of action Rodón’s considering — or, at least, it wasn’t on the table early in the offseason. Agent Scott Boras told reporters in November they’d have rejected a QO had the Sox made one, saying the southpaw was on the hunt for a multi-year deal. Yet there were essentially no substantive rumors regarding Rodón in the weeks leading up to the lockout, leaving his market highly uncertain. MLBTR’s Steve Adams examined his best potential landing spots last month.
What kind of deal might Rodón command? Perhaps the market’s other starters can provide some idea. Max Scherzer landed the biggest contract of any starter this offseason, signing for a whopping $130MM over three years. He’s a unique case, with the next couple tiers offering cleaner possible comps. Robbie Ray received five guaranteed years and $115MM, with an opt-out possibility after the third season. Kevin Gausman signed for five years and $110MM.
Aside from that trio of nine-figure hurlers, the biggest starting pitching deals went to Eduardo Rodríguez (five years/$77MM, with an opt-out clause after the second season), Marcus Stroman (three years/$71MM, with an opt-out after the second season) and Jon Gray (four years/$56MM). Below them are Steven Matz (four years/$44MM) and Anthony DeSclafani (three years/$36MM).
Where will Rodón fit into that mix? What does the MLBTR readership think his post-lockout contract will be?
(poll links for app users)
2/40 w/ an opt out after year one, but if he opts in to year 2, the signing team has a 1/20M team option for year 3.
I like this one a lot. I was thinking something along the lines of the Trevor Bauer deal from last year, but lower amount, of course. Love the idea of a team option appearing after a player opts in for year 2. That year 2 dollar amount may have to be higher in order to get the deal done. Maybe 20/30/20(?)
This is another guy who hasn’t done much of anything special till the year right before free agency (career year). Buyer beware.
There’s nothing nefarious to this, as you seem to imply. Rodon had has major injury issues throughout his career, but when he’s healthy his stuff is top tier.You’re not dealing with someone who’s just there to collect a check. 2021 was a carrer year for him but that;s just due to his availability, and if he can get 30 starts a season he will pu up similar numbers.
Having said that and watched him for his entire career I wouldn’t touch him with an 11 foot pole (the one you use when 10 ft just isn’t enough) . He cannot be relied upon, if he could be then I doubt the WHite Soxd would have let him reach free agency. Over the next 5 seasons I think he has as good a chance as winning the Cy Young as he does being forced to retire due to injury, in fact I’d lean toward the injury outcome.
Mostly agree. Rodon was a top 5 pick and very good prospect who was supposed to do these things.
It takes some Pitchers a little while to figure it out. His stuff is clearly top tier and prior to injuries he wasn’t a complete zero. Injury risk and lack of significant track record are going to hurt his overall guarantee but he’s the high variance type.
If he’s healthy this next deal will probably be a massive bargain. That’s the risk you’re taking though.
The Sox still should have given him a qualifying offer.
He has only had two sub 4.00 ERA years; hardly top tier.
Is it fair to assume that if Rodon is not pitching well it’s because he is not pitching healthy?
I totally agree with all you said. But he is a nice guy
He’s always been good (just hurt), so buyer beware of his health….. he deserves to be paid, but any contract over 1 year is is not worth the risk
rangers should sign him for 5/100.
I hope the do. Or maybe Detroit
I don’t think he’ll have any trouble getting 3 or 4 years probably between $55-75m
NEVER happen
3/48
I think the scarcity on the SP market is going to help him a fair bit, but the health concerns will still prevent a really long-term deal. I’m guessing 3/60 give or take.
$1, Bob.
Rick Hahn c’mon down!
35 year loan for a mortgage.
I’ll give him that
3/60 to the Dodgers
Vtadave: 2/40 to Dodgers.
NEVER happen. 1 year/ 10 Mil Injury prone
Reinsdorf let Rodon walk because he was afraid he might have to pay him $18M. A total misread of the market. There’s interest in Rodon, so Reinsdorf needlessly cost his team a compensation pick. He was running on fumes at the end, but he’s now well positioned to build off 2021 and is set up for 160+ innings. Some team is going to get an excellent pitcher.
In 2022, Madrigal will be playing for the Cubs. Kimbrel will be traded. Rodon will be pitching for a postseason-bound team not named the White Sox. Chicago is a major, major market. Reinsdorf is a very wealthy owner. The White Sox are in a win-now window with some excellent players, but Jerry will continue to run the White Sox as he has for decades, and that’s not a good thing.
Why does it make sense in 2022 or medium-term for the White Sox to commit that kind of $ to a pitcher they have the most information about?
They’d be offering him a QO, which he would reject. There was always a very slight chance he’d accept, but a Boras client coming off a year like Rodon is of course not accepting. They gave up a free draft pick. And if the “worst” happened, they’d have committed one year to a very good pitcher.
Reisendorf acted out of fear he’d have to spend money.
You’re assuming Boras was telling the truth
I agree with this take Rob…. He’s worth the risk of 1 year at that price…. Which is why he’d likely reject the QO and earn the team a draft pick…. Therefore, if $18mil plus isn’t allocated somewhere else then Sox fans need to be furious with ownership (if they aren’t already)
Dude it’s OK we all know that QO’ing a player is disrespectful to the player!
/s
if getting the pick was the only thing to consider in their calculus.
it seems to me that leaving a draft pick on the table and preferring to use the 18M elsewhere is a tell. not just about how they view rodon’s market. but, also what they think of the portfolio we call their pitching staff. risk management is about trade-offs – and if Jerry Reinsdorf knows one thing -it’s finance.
I agree that Kopech to the rotation at his rookie salary is the better option for the White Sox to allocate $18mil elsewhere… Anxiously waiting on that move with the same pessimism that many have for Rodon’s health
The White Sox had every reason to let Rodon walk.
And frankly, the QO WAS a risk, because if he did sign, they were paying 18.5 million for a guy who has missed time due to injury every season past his rookie year, and who lost A LOT of velocity at times last year due to injury.
The best pitching ability is availability, and that is not something Rodon has every demonstrated.
Glad they took a pass. Risk wasn’t worth it.
Boras was going to reject the QO anyway all the CWS did was help Boras’s client out by not attaching compensation requirements to whomever signs him. Some would say one hand washes the other and maybe Boras will return the favor down the road in some fashion.
Declining to extend a QO out of goodwill is the dumbest idea I’ve ever heard in my life. ESPECIALLY with a player who is represented by Scott Boras.
Or maybe they know his arm isn’t going to provide $18M with in 2022 based on medical evaluations.
They don’t know…. But the facts are the facts which should lead one to infer and highly consider the possibility and likelihood…. On a one year deal, I’d say it’s worth the risk
Jerry and Hahn will make it work without spending big money on a independence injury prone Rodon
Rodon’s numbers skew pretty close to DeSclafani’s, except Rodon is younger, has an all star appearance, and a top five Cy Young in his favor. I think post lockout, a team that still needs pitching will have no problem giving a 4/50.
And he’s a lefty. That may not make a difference in some places, but to others (NYY) with the money to pay and the need, it will.
Here;s Rodon’s most telling stat, in a 7 year career as a starter he has amassed 669.1 inning pitched., less than 100 per season. You can’t build a rotation around starters with that kind of reliability and durability issues due to injuries. Multiple ones, to the shoulder and elbow (Tommy John)
In that case, I’d expect him to take less money for more years. Maybe 3/30 with a team option.
Never happen.
Rodon comes with a lot of “buyer beware” attached to him. Best option for him is a team that can put him in the backend of its rotation with enough depth to withstand the inevitable trips to the IL
Yeah, he’s in that category that he will get paid like a mid-rotation starter, can perform like an ace, but you have to plan on him like he’s unreliable. Very strange combination. All that said, he’s going to make a very good impact in a rotation this season, imo. Yankees could use him, especially if they can use some younger swing-arms to rest him more often.
But, if they get him, they wont, they’ll run him out every 5 days and by may, they’ll leave him in for a complete game no-hit attempt, after which he will burn out.
You got got it.
You guys are grossly under estimating his value in the comments. There is nothing in the underlying stats that would point to his season being a fluke. Even if all you get from him going forward is 130 innings, he’s worth AT LEAST 20 million per year. I think he’ll surprise you guys and sign for the same deal Verlander received (2/50 with an opt out).
two issues though: 1. he may not get what he’s worth due to market conditions and 2. he has a serious injury history.
His performance was not a fluke. He should have gone 1/1 the year he was drafted.
His health was a fluke. He hasn’t pitched that many innings in five years, and clearly wore down by the All-Star break.
He is a one year wonder. He has seen his best year. Mark my word
Has 1 good year, I mean half a year- more like showed what is talent can be. Someone will overpay.
1/$10, show me again contract.
Pitching is a premium position. If Andrew Heaney can get 1 year/$8.5M and a guy like Ben Sheets could get a 1 year/$10M bounce back contract from a team like the A’s, even on a show me contract, Rodon is going to get at least $18M, to match the Q.O.
Heck, Kluber got a second bounce back $8M payday from the Rays.
At least Kluber has some Cy Young hardware to go with his recent injury history. Take last years outlier away, look at his previous history, and tell me what you would pay for that! The White Sox non tendered him, and then gave him $3MM. No other team offered more than that.
YOU are spot on. Just what I said earlier
This guy won’t do half as good as last year. The WS would have kept him if they were sure of another GOOD year
I think the Mets continue their spending spree here. 3/60 range.
That would be a heckuva risky rotation
@tstats They seem to be going for broke on a short-term plan. If it doesn’t work out, they’ll free up their payroll in 3 years time.
The Mets have money to throw away
Nobody has 60 Mil to throw away. Not even the Mets
That actually is a good point and wouldn’t surprise me.
The results of the 2 polls don’t really jibe, I understand the 3 year length, but the top vote getter in value results in an AAV from less than $7M to a max of $14.67M. That AAV goes with a longer deal.
White Sox probably know something is up. He more than tripled his innings over the previous two years combined, which can’t be a recommended jump.
Nobody has 60 Mil to throw away. Not even the Mets You are 100% right. The White know if Rodon was worth a multi year contract
As a Sox fan, I would love to have him back, even as an insurance policy over Keuchel and to help Kopech ease into a full workload. I just don’t see the Sox spending that kind of money on him with two other glaring holes (2nd and RF) in the lineup. My prediction would be some other team giving him either 3/60m or something along the lines of 3/54m with a team option 4th year at ~$20m.
Never happen. He would be a risk at 1 year/ 10 Mil
“I’d buy that for a dollar.”
For a beginning —- Should Rodon be interested in a short term contract to prove his healthiness—— the Cardinals ought to grab him at whatever it takes to get him. 1-2 year contract with an option for a long term deal, —-providing he stays healthy—
3 years/$66M w/ a $4M buyout on a $30M option w/ various escalators for various awards placements such as MVP and Cy Young, which could add up to an additional $4M per season and increase the buyout on a 4th year option by $1M a season so that if he’s a bust, he walks away with $70M total, but if he’s successful enough and doesn’t get the option picked up, he walks away with $81M over 3 years and if he hits all escalators and gets the option picked up, he maxes out the contract value at 4 years/$96M guaranteed and if he hits all the escalators in the 4th year, he maxes out the total contract value at 4 years/$100M.
I think even if he regresses a little bit but doesn’t fall apart, he’ll still give a performance worth a bit more than $20M on the open market. If he maintains what he did in 2021, he’ll be a bargain at any price he’s likely to receive based on the one career year and up and down seasons prior to 2021. IF he performed like his 2021 self for 2-3 years, he’d be likely to get the Trevor Bauer deal- so just stretch that kind of value out by one season into 4 years/$100M total potential on any new contract.
OR:
1 year/$28M
2 years/$45M
3 years, 44 mil with a 5 mil buyout 3rd year
The key to Rodon’s next contract lies almost solely in his medicals. If his shoulder shows damage, teams are going to stay away…maybe he gets a James Paxton type of deal, one year guaranteed with 2 team options. If his medicals come back clean, then I could see a 3/$60M+ offer with at least $5M/yr of that amount tied to incentives: total IP or total games started. If he can make 25+ starts, teams might be willing to pay him $22M – $25M for that effort. With that said, his injury history makes even an incentive-laden contract very risky for whichever team signs him.
I see him signing a 3 yr deal, maybe less for 1st year in the 16 range then up to 18-19 range for year 2 then 20-22 range in year 3. But if it were me signing him I would go a bit lower on the base with incentives based on innings, wins, era & etc…3 for 55 range seems about right.
Unfortunately, you can’t have incentives based on ERA, wins, or other individual performance stats. You can have incentives on ‘benign’ items like appearances, innings pitched, # of starts, etc. You can also have incentives for league awards (Top 5 in Cy Young voting, Gold Glove, etc).
Adam Dunn GG escalator
He won’t last anymore than 1 more year, if he lasts that. He is maybe good for relieving.
Lots of complexity and moving parts here to sort out here, resulting in the wide variance of polling results. One might say that Rodon is the Thinking Man’s free agent.
Yup. I want the Red Sox to sign him, they signed Paxton and Hill so what the heck, he could be better for 1/2 a year…
Dumpster Divin’ Reinsdorf
It could be expensive thinking
Left Handed with a pulse 4 yrs 85 .Dude has saddle sores carrying Chisox the first half last yr.Great season should be rewarded as long as it doesn’t have a LA in the signing.
Dude Has saddle sores from sitting on the trainers table most of his career.
That’s more like it
Wouldn’t be shocked on a 1 year “prove health” deal with a team known for improving pitchers. Jays would work as they have 4 solid pitchers now with 3 “lord knows” for the 5th right now. Ray went from $8 mil wild thing to Cy Young in Toronto, Matz from traded to clear his contract to 4 year deal. Might be a good fit if he can’t get a 5 year $100+ from someone.
Why would you want to add another unknown into the rotation mix? It’s not matter of “fixing” him to harness his natural talent; he just can not stay healthy.
That’s the whole downside for a long term deal. Being and staying healthy. Hahn knew that
I was shocked Ray received 8 million.He couldn’t locate and his whip was horrendous.But I had seen a few gems in yrs past so I new he threw hard.Matz in the playoffs is a gamer and trading him was stupid in the first place.Against the Dodgers 1 yr in the playoffs.This kid was every kind of filthy, spinning peas over a matchbook on short rest and he was 1 bad boy who scared the crap out of every Dodger fan so bad.To just whisper his name in the county could be trouble by itself.2 fantastic stories still unwritten
Maybe 2/35 with a 3rd year option of 20m that gets triggered when he throws 300 innings in the first two years.
2/37 option for 3rd actually kicks in with 200IP and top 5 in cy young voting. Cubs
The question is how much would you pay for 140 IP? That’s not a lot, even if it’s a good 140. A playoff team that’s deep in pitching would make the most sense…as a 4th or 5th starter with high upside, but someone who you could rest, could make a big difference. But when you start getting into multiyear deals, then the issues with his health compound, because something is likely to happen to him. Anyone seriously think he breaks 400 IP on a 3 year deal? He’s never done it in three consecutive seasons yet. So, how much is (maybe) 400 IP worth to you?
Radon won’t have a 400 inning season. Ever
His numbers last year were very similar to Cole’s in his walk year. If Cole got $35m/yr, and you get 2/3 of a season like the Sox got, that’s $23-$24M worth. Even as a W. Sox fan, I can only guess they have more info on his health than other teams; otherwise, not offering a QO is really dumb.
My guess is 2yrs/$38M with a team option for a third at $20M that becomes a player option with enough innings.
it’s possible you are right, and I don’t expect him to sign a one year deal, but you do have the replace those IP, and that’s going to likely be with someone not good enough to crack the top five. Would you pay 2/3 for that?
Whatever his contract maybe with it will be with a calculated risk
One year prove he is healthy deal with another two years of options loaded with incentives.
No way you sign someone like him more than one or two years with his history of injuries and inability to pitch a full season.
He need to stay healthy first and can see his landing spots being the North Side of Chi-Town, Tampa or even Pittsburgh but if any team signs him more than two years they will regret it…
My belief entirely
This has Trader Jerry written all over it. He loves left handed pitchers, that have ace like stuff. But for one reason or another, can never put it all together. I say 3 years 66 million.
I don’t think he gets that much from the Mariners. Jerry would pay him for 20 starts a year not 30, Using Robbie Ray’s contract as a point of reference, it works out to about $15M per season. I see 3/$45 with a team option after year 2. It would work because the kids can fill in the other starts. Pencil him in as your #5 starter with spot starts by Dunn and Brash. I think Dipoto would be interested at that price point.
Radon hasn’t got 3 more years in him
Boras was going to reject the QO anyway all the CWS did was help Boras’s client out by not attaching compensation requirements to whomever signs him. Some would say one hand washes the other and maybe Boras will return the favor down the road in some fashion.
I’m hearing a lot of the same complaints and concerns I heard when Wheeler hit the open market. Rodon has similar potential. He’s going to get paid.
He will get “paid a risky contract
Expecting high annual value and less guaranteed years. His track record before last year would suggest a #3-5 type of starter so anything more than 1-2 years is a huge gamble.
Contracts are often now assessed at a future expectation vs historical performance for good reason, but his entire body of work indicates more risk than reward in my opinion.
If I were a GM I would have a high annual value limiting the risk to payroll and club options for year 2.
The agent and Rondon will not like that but I see enough Chris Davis, Miguel Cabrera, etc…. Types of contracts out there that I would not risk my franchise if I were a GM on an arm that has a flash in the pan strong first half before becoming a free agent.
High risk if you ask me. Note how well the Tigers and Orioles have been in the last 4-5 years. Worth it?
Great points and I agree 100%. Clubs are gonna second guess themselves on long term contracts more in the future anyways
4/68 is what Eovaldi went for.
I’d bet Rodon wants an earlier opt out but if he foregoes that—I don’t think he’d have a problem getting that kind of deal. That deal looked bad after season 1 but it looks like it has a pretty good chance of being a good deal for the Sox. So long as Eo is healthy and effective next year.
If Matz can get four years, so can Rodon.
To the Rangers at 3/49.5 makes sense.
It ain’t gonna happen
He could get a fat one yr deal w anyone but someone will be willing to do a 4 yr overpay
It ain’t gonna happen
I’ll say 2 yrs between $20-$44M range or 3 yrs between $44-$56M ranger with an Opt out after the 2nd year and an Opt out after the 1st on the first deal.
Both are realistic depending what they offer them. That’s Trade Rumours range predictions. Mine’s
I voted 2 yrs in the range of $44-$56M.
I would say 2 yrs and $50M deal with an Opt out after the 1st year will be fair for both, player and team!
$25M a piece if he decides to stay!
Didn’t the Angels attract Syndergaard with their designated 6-man rotation? Such deployment might be ideal for Rodon, sending him out for 130 IP and preserving both his health and elite abilities. The Angels could also fit in a LHP very well.
Gruß,
BSHH
That would be ideal. Good wonder if the Halos would want unload enough to land Story to play SS, Rodon and steal Kershaw away from the Dodgers. Only Story’s contract would be over $100 M and I’m assuming Kershaw wants to stay in LA, so why not give it a run!
1.Fletcher 2B
2.Walsh 1B
3.Trout CF
4.Rendon 3B
5.Ohtani DH
6.Story SS
7.Upton/Marsh LF
8.Stassi C
9.Adell/Marsh RF
1.Kershaw
2.Ohtani
3.Synderguaard
4.Rodon
5.Suarez
6.Sandoval
The Halos could stunt the baseball world if they make those 3 acquisitions and manage to stay healthy.
Not getting Kersh
One year $12M
Carlos Rodon is exactly the type of player the Angels sign. Oft-Injured.
Front loaded multi year deal with a year one team option that vests after 1xx inning pitched. 3/64 with 25 guaranteed in year one. This will play out as a one year prove it. I think a team from the AL/NL west will land him.
Come on Tigers sign him give him a shot just give him 4/100 Mill throw him in the number two spot behi I’m sire so the starting five will be Casey Mize Carlos Rondon Eduardo Rodriguez tarik skubal and matt Manning that would definitely be a top-five rotation in the league Detroit playoff-bound and hopefully World Series LOL now even bigger dream would be if they still signed Carlos Correa or Trevor story but that’s way too much to ask I’m sure LOL
How about one and a half million per quality start? Sounds fair to me.
Keep in mind. He has pitched over 140 innings in a season just once in his career…… 6 years ago.
He wasn’t tendered a qualifying offer from the White Sox. There is a reason. He won’t sign for $50M+ as some voters believe.
Love Carlos and the heart he has had to come back in 2021 after so many disappointing and injury filled years. But he broke down late in the 2nd half and could not contribute anything in the playoffs, and just does not have a ton of value to a team aspiring for postseason success because of that. I honestly think a creative solution with him would be to sit him the first half of the year, and see if by starting him in like July, he might be healthy in October. He had ace, completely dominant stuff the first half of last year, and would have great value to any team if they could find a way to creatively have him healthy when it matters the most. Just accept his limitations rather than hope for a different result… would make more sense than wishing and hoping he won’t be injured or fatigued after a full season that has proven time and again to be way to long for his body to handle.