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Carlos Rodon

Giants To Sign Carlos Rodon

By Steve Adams | March 14, 2022 at 12:25pm CDT

March 14: Rodon’s opt-out clause is contingent on him pitching at least 110 innings this season, tweets Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. If Rodon does not throw at least 110 innings in 2022, he will not be able to opt out of the contract’s second season.

March 11, 3:21pm: Rodon will earn $21.5MM in 2022 and $22.5MM in 2023, tweets USA Today’s Bob Nightengale.

3:07pm: The Giants have reached a two-year, $44MM deal with left-hander Carlos Rodon, reports ESPN’s Jeff Passan. Rodon, a client of the Boras Corporation, can opt out of the contract after the first year of the deal. Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reported shortly beforehand that Rodon was “very much in play” for the Giants.

The 29-year-old Rodon is arguably the top starter on the market at this point after a breakout 2021 season. The former No. 3 overall pick returned from a series of injury-marred seasons to turn in the finest performance of his career, dominating the American League for much of the season. Through late July, Rodon was one of the favorites for the Cy Young Award, having pitched to a sparkling 2.14 ERA with a sensational 36.6% strikeout rate against a 6.8% walk rate.

Rodon overwhelmed the Astros on July 18, pitching seven innings of scoreless, one-hit ball and racking up 10 punchouts. That, however, would be the last time the southpaw pitched more than five innings in an outing. Rodon lasted just four frames and allowed four runs in each of his next two starts. He rebounded to dominate a stripped-down Cubs team that had traded away most of its lineup, tossing five shutout innings with 11 strikeouts on Aug. 7.

Rodon then hit the injured list with shoulder fatigue, returned on Aug. 26, and went on to make only five starts over the regular season’s final 39 days. He reached 80 pitches in just one of those five appearances, and his fastball sat at a greatly diminished 93.2 mph in that time. Rodon was still effective in that time (2.35 ERA in 23 innings), but his strikeout rate was down to 27.2% — still strong, but not quite elite.

Heading into the postseason, Rodon’s status was a question mark, though he was ultimately included on the ALDS roster and deemed good to go for a Game 4 appearance. Rodon came back out slinging his fastball in the upper 90s, but he lasted just 2 2/3 innings in a game that would eventually result in Chicago being bounced from the playoffs.

On the whole, Rodon finished out the regular season with a 2.37 ERA, a 34.6% strikeout rate and a 6.7% walk rate in 132 2/3 innings. He ranked among the league leaders in terms of swinging-strike rate, opponents’ chase and overall strikeout rate. Statcast generally felt that Rodon’s breakout ERA was legitimate, pegging him for an “expected” 2.68 ERA in addition to a .189 expected opponents’ batting average and .316 expected slugging percentage.

As if the late-season shoulder woes weren’t troublesome enough, though, further questions surrounding Rodon’s health emerged after the White Sox opted against issuing him an $18.4MM qualifying offer. The fact that the team that knew Rodon best wasn’t comfortable with a one-year deal even after a season of that caliber cast serious doubt on the status of his shoulder. Earlier this morning, however, SNY’s Andy Martino tweeted that the medicals on Rodon were “actually very good,” citing multiple teams who’d looked into the southpaw. Clearly the Giants agree to an extent, as they saw fit to promise Rodon more than double what he’d have received upon signing a qualifying offer. Because Rodon did not receive the QO, the Giants won’t have to surrender any draft picks to sign him — and the White Sox won’t receive any compensation for his departure.

Rodon’s contract may have two guaranteed years, but it’s essentially a more modern version of the oft-seen one-year “pillow” contract. If he remains healthy and pitches well, Rodon will be a lock to opt out of the contract in search of a nine-figure guarantee heading into what would be his age-30 season in 2023. (And, depending on whether MLB and the MLBPA agree to an international draft by July 25, he may not have to face a qualifying offer next winter.) If not, he’ll still have the safety net of a weighty salary for the 2023 season — after which he’d have another bite at the free-agent apple.

The signing isn’t without its risk for the Giants. Beyond Rodon’s late-season shoulder troubles, the left-hander had simply never performed anywhere near this level prior to the 2021 season. This is the type of performance that both the White Sox and their fanbase hoped for when Rodon was drafted No. 3 overall and immediately ranked as one of the sport’s best pitching prospects. However, Rodon was more of a third or fourth starter for the bulk of his career in Chicago, pitching to a 4.01 ERA through 494 1/3 innings from 2015-18. Along the way, he dealt with a litany of injury troubles, ranging from minor issues like a wrist strain to more severe problems in his shoulder (which required surgery in September of 2017) and in his elbow (which required Tommy John surgery in May of 2019).

Red flags aside, this type of short-term, high-annual value structure is one with which Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi is quite comfortable. Zaidi, the former Dodgers general manager, pursued arrangements of this type often in Los Angeles, and since moving to the Giants he’s had a clear preference to avoid long-term contracts — even if it means paying a higher annual premium. Under Zaidi, the Giants haven’t given out a contact of more than three years in length to any free agent, and it was reported early in the offseason that the team was disinclined to pursue players expected to command nine-figure deals.

Notably, Rodon’s $22MM annual rate of pay is a match with that of now-former Giants righty Kevin Gausman in Toronto, but Gausman commanded a five-year pact. Gausman has a greater track record of durability, of course, but Rodon certainly has the ability to match or even exceed Gausman’s production, provided he can remain on the mound.

Rodon becomes the fourth and presumably final rotation addition for the Giants this winter. Four of San Francisco’s five starters — Gausman, Anthony DeSclafani, Alex Wood and Johnny Cueto —  reached free agency at season’s end, leaving only budding ace Logan Webb as a lock for the ’22 rotation. The Giants have since re-signed both DeSclafani (three years, $36MM) and Wood (two years, $25MM) while also adding veteran righty Alex Cobb (two years, $20MM).

Some additional depth could always be brought in behind that quintet, as there’s little in the way of experience behind them. Out-of-options right-hander Tyler Beede is likely ticketed for a long relief role and is the sixth man up on the depth chart, but the other names on the Giants’ 40-man roster (e.g. Sammy Long, Sean Hjelle, Kervin Castro) are either light on experience or haven’t pitched in the Majors at all. San Francisco has Corey Oswalt in camp on a minor league deal, but the front office hasn’t exactly loaded up on depth options to cover rotation innings in the event of an injury. Given that each of Rodon, Wood and Cobb have extremely lengthy injury histories, some additional veteran stability would be prudent.

That said, with Webb and Rodon now forming a formidable one-two punch and a trio of strong mid-rotation options behind them, the Giants have the potential for one of the better staffs in the National League. The Giants still have work to do and seem likely to find some punch to add to the lineup in the coming days/weeks, but the rotation is in good shape and, unlike last season’s unit, can potentially remain in place for at least one year beyond the upcoming campaign.

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Newsstand San Francisco Giants Transactions Carlos Rodon

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AL Central Notes: Twins, IKF, Tigers, Anderson, Boyd, White Sox

By Mark Polishuk | March 12, 2022 at 5:44pm CDT

The Twins and Rangers combined on one of the most interesting early moves of the post-lockout period, agreeing to a trade earlier today that will see Isiah Kiner-Falefa and pitching prospect Ronny Henriquez head to Minnesota, while catcher Mitch Garver was dealt to Texas.  Speaking with reporters (including MLB.com’s Do-Hyoung Park) about the deal, president of baseball operations Derek Falvey said the Twins were first in touch about Kiner-Falefa before the lockout, and Garver wasn’t initially part of trade talks until it became that such a notable price was necessary to pry Kiner-Falefa away from the Rangers.

While the presence of Ryan Jeffers ultimately made Garver expendable, Minnesota now has a new everyday shortstop, and a player who has generally looked like one of the league’s better defensive players no matter where Texas lined him up on the diamond.  Kiner-Falefa said he is happy to be getting an opportunity to start at what he considers his natural position of shortstop, and his addition means that the Twins can now keep Jorge Polanco at second base.

More from around the AL Central…

  • With Eduardo Rodriguez signed as the new headliner of the Tigers rotation, the team continues to look for more veteran help to fill a fourth or fifth starter role.  According to Evan Petzold of The Detroit Free Press, the Tigers had interest in Tyler Anderson both before and after the lockout, though they are “not aggressively pursuing Anderson” at the moment.  For some familiar AL Central names, Detroit is also not making a particular push towards free agent Michael Pineda, and the Tigers weren’t looking at Carlos Rodon before Rodon signed with the Giants yesterday.
  • A former Tiger is under consideration, however, as Petzold writes that the Tigers are among the multiple clubs interested in Matthew Boyd, who was non-tendered by Detroit in November.  Boyd’s projected $7.3MM arbitration price tag was too expensive for the Tigers considering that the southpaw was hampered by injuries last season and underwent flexor tendon surgery in September.  Boyd’s recovery will extend into the season but he is aiming to return by June 1.
  • “The pitching concerns might be a little heavier on our mind than the position player side of things,” White Sox GM Rick Hahn told The Athletic’s James Fegan and other reporters in discussing his club’s remaining targets during the offseason.  With so many available arms already flying off the board, Fegan guesses that bolstering the back end of the rotation now looks like a more immediately priority for the Sox than addressing other needs like second base or the outfield.  White Sox manager Tony La Russa told Fegan and other reporters today that pitching depth will be particularly important this season given the shortened Spring Training, though La Russa said his club is still aiming for a five-man rotation rather than a six-man staff.
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Chicago White Sox Detroit Tigers Minnesota Twins Notes Texas Rangers Carlos Rodon Isiah Kiner-Falefa Matt Boyd Michael Pineda Mitch Garver Tyler Anderson

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Free Agent Notes: Rodon, Kikuchi, Correa, Soler

By Sean Bavazzano | March 10, 2022 at 8:47pm CDT

News of the finally-ratified Collective Bargaining Agreement is dominating headlines, with good reason, but some free agent leads had quietly emerged during the final hours of CBA negotiations. Notably, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports that the Yankees had requested and received medicals for free agent pitchers Carlos Rodon and Yusei Kikuchi prior to the lockout. Heyman notes that the Yankees have received the medicals of free agent shortstop Carlos Correa as well, though disclaims that the team already has “two good shortstop prospects”, referring to touted youngsters Anthony Volpe and Oswald Peraza.

It has been speculated for some time that the Yankees minor league depth may impede their run at baseball’s top free agent, but their interest in Rodon and Kikuchi appears more straightforward. Despite possessing a high-upside stable of arms behind Gerrit Cole and Jordan Montgomery, the Bronx rotation has no shortage of risk baked into it. Signing either Rodon or Kikuchi would add a similar high-risk, high-reward pitcher to the mix however, as these free agent targets dealt with injury and ineffectiveness down the stretch, respectively. Still, with a much higher luxury tax threshold to work with clubs like the Yankees are further incentivized to sign as many playoff-caliber arms as they can to see who sticks.

Some more free agent leads to usher in the post-lockout world…

  • Piggybacking off of Heyman’s tweet, Darren Wolfson of SKOR North reports that the Twins have received medicals on Rodon and Kikuchi as well. Per Wolfson, the Twins are still searching for “multiple arms, starters and relievers” which should come as little surprise to fans who have followed Minnesota’s offseason to date. A Rodon signing would likely represent an uncharacteristically large splash for the Twins, though it should be noted they’ve shown interest in high-risk pitchers in the past, to say nothing of their interest in Rodon last offseason.
  • Another free agent generating buzz is Jorge Soler, who Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports has received interest from more than six clubs. Now that the universal DH has been implemented Feinsand speculates that Soler will see his list of suitors grow. That theory certainly checks out on paper, as Soler has sported a useful 117 OPS+ since 2019, though his glovework during that same stretch has been decidedly below average.
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Minnesota Twins New York Yankees Carlos Correa Carlos Rodon Jorge Soler Yusei Kikuchi

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MLBTR Poll: Carlos Rodon’s Contract

By Anthony Franco | January 19, 2022 at 8:20pm CDT

The free agent starting pitching market moved very quickly before the transactions freeze. Carlos Rodón and Clayton Kershaw are the clear top two starters remaining, and it seems Kershaw’s market could be limited by geographical concerns. That’d leave Rodón as the lone potential top-of-the-rotation arm available in free agency, but his status is complicated by health questions.

Rodón’s story has been covered a few times this offseason. After a few injury-plagued years, the former #3 overall pick broke out with an ace-caliber first half. He was a deserved All-Star and on a potential Cy Young pace until hitting the injured list with discomfort in his throwing shoulder in August. He missed a few weeks — albeit after it was apparent the White Sox were coasting to an AL Central title — before returning to make a few starts at the end of the season.

While Rodón continued to be effective after that IL stint, the average velocity on both his fastball and slider ticked down a couple miles per hour. Rodón’s fastball velocity ramped back up during his lone postseason start (his slider speed did not), but he was knocked out after just 2 2/3 innings during a rough outing against the Astros. The White Sox were eliminated before he got another opportunity to take the hill.

It wasn’t an ideal finish, but Rodón’s season-long production was excellent. He posted a 2.37 ERA with a massive 34.6% strikeout rate over 132 2/3 regular season innings, showcasing dominant swing-and-miss stuff at his best. Yet the White Sox declined to make the 29-year-old a qualifying offer, perhaps indicating some trepidation on the club’s part about his health. Given that durability uncertainty, MLBTR forecasted Rodón to take a one-year, $25MM deal in hopes of duplicating his excellent 2021 numbers in search of nine figures next offseason.

That doesn’t seem to be a course of action Rodón’s considering — or, at least, it wasn’t on the table early in the offseason. Agent Scott Boras told reporters in November they’d have rejected a QO had the Sox made one, saying the southpaw was on the hunt for a multi-year deal. Yet there were essentially no substantive rumors regarding Rodón in the weeks leading up to the lockout, leaving his market highly uncertain. MLBTR’s Steve Adams examined his best potential landing spots last month.

What kind of deal might Rodón command? Perhaps the market’s other starters can provide some idea. Max Scherzer landed the biggest contract of any starter this offseason, signing for a whopping $130MM over three years. He’s a unique case, with the next couple tiers offering cleaner possible comps. Robbie Ray received five guaranteed years and $115MM, with an opt-out possibility after the third season. Kevin Gausman signed for five years and $110MM.

Aside from that trio of nine-figure hurlers, the biggest starting pitching deals went to Eduardo Rodríguez (five years/$77MM, with an opt-out clause after the second season), Marcus Stroman (three years/$71MM, with an opt-out after the second season) and Jon Gray (four years/$56MM). Below them are Steven Matz (four years/$44MM) and Anthony DeSclafani (three years/$36MM).

Where will Rodón fit into that mix? What does the MLBTR readership think his post-lockout contract will be?

(poll links for app users)

 

 

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MLBTR Originals MLBTR Polls Carlos Rodon

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Let’s Find A Fit For Carlos Rodon

By Steve Adams | December 15, 2021 at 4:58pm CDT

Carlos Rodon had one of the best seasons, on a per-inning basis, of any starter in recent memory. He also had one of the strangest, however, as his velocity and workload plummeted among shoulder concerns in a still-productive final two months of the season.

As late into the season as July 18, Rodon had to be considered the odds-on favorite to win the American League Cy Young Award — a remarkable turnaround for a former top prospect who’d had Tommy John surgery and shoulder surgery, been non-tendered and then returned to his original club on a one-year, $3MM “prove-it” deal.

Prove it, Rodon did — for much of the season. Rodon no-hit Cleveland in his second start of the season and, as of that aforementioned July 18 date, was sporting a ridiculous 2.14 ERA with a dominant 36.6% strikeout rate against an excellent 6.8% walk rate. The 96 mph he was averaging on his heater through that date was far and away the best mark of his career, and Rodon’s 15.5% swinging-strike rate placed him alongside the game’s elite starters. Simply put, he was dominant. Rodon at last looked like the No. 1 starter Sox for which Sox fans hoped when he was selected with the No. 3 overall draft pick in 2014.

A July 18 gem against a potent Astros lineup — seven shutout, one-hit innings with 10 punchouts and no walks — proved to be the last time he’d throw more than five innings in 2021, however. Rodon lasted just four frames and allowed four runs in each of his next two starts. He rebounded to overwhelm a stripped-down Cubs lineup that had traded away virtually every hitter of note, tossing five shutout innings with 11 strikeouts on Aug. 7.

Rodon then hit the injured list with shoulder fatigue, returned on Aug. 26, and went on to make only five starts over the regular season’s final 39 days. He reached 80 pitches in just one of those five starts, and his fastball sat at a greatly diminished 93.2 mph in that time. Rodon was still effective in that time (2.35 ERA in 23 innings), but his strikeout rate was down to 27.2% as well — still strong, but no longer elite.

Heading into the White Sox’ ALDS date with Houston, it was unclear whether Rodon would even be an option at all. There was some question as to whether he’d even be on the roster, but he was deemed good to go for what proved to be the decisive Game 4 of that series. Rodon came out with a revitalized fastball that was hitting the upper 90s, but he also last just 2 2/3 innings in a 56-pitch losing effort that ended Chicago’s year. Credit to Rodon for gutting it out if he was less than 100 percent, but it was obviously a suboptimal finish to what had looked to be a legitimate breakout campaign for the lefty.

As the offseason dawned, most expected the White Sox to extend a one-year qualifying offer to Rodon. That $18.4MM salary would’ve represented a massive jump from the $3MM he earned in 2021, but based on his performance, that rate of pay still represented a bargain. Instead, the Sox opted not to make the QO, allowing Rodon to become a free agent without the burden of draft compensation. That led to speculation about his health or a possible gentleman’s agreement with the front office; no one other than the Chicago front office, Rodon and agent Scott Boras can be 100 percent certain as to the reasons for the lack of a QO, but it now makes Rodon one of the most intriguing free agents on the market.

Rodon turned 29 just last week. He’s coming off a season that, even though it ended on a low note, saw him post a 2.37 ERA with a 34.6% strikeout rate and a 6.7% walk rate. Among pitchers with at least 100 innings thrown, only NL Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes had a higher strikeout percentage. Only Burnes and Max Scherzer posted larger strikeout-to-walk percentage differentials than Rodon’s 27.9%. Rodon also ranked among the 10 best pitchers in MLB with a 15% swinging-strike rate and a 70.3% opponents’ contact rate (again, min. 100 innings).

It was a true ace-level performance, but also a level that Rodon had never before reached. Between the one-off nature of this year’s dominance and the obvious concerns about his shoulder, workload and velocity late in the season, there’s some real risk with Rodon.

On our Top 50 free agent rankings, we suggested that Rodon would likely have to choose between a one-year deal with a large salary or maxing out on a multi-year deal that’s probably shorter than most top-tier starters would command — perhaps three years. Our ultimate prediction was a one-year deal at $25MM, though we also discussed three-year deals worth $20MM annually — perhaps even a bit more.

Boras has already made clear this winter that Rodon is seeking a multi-year deal, so while it’s possible he signs for one year after not finding any longer-term deals to his liking, the thought right now has to be that he’ll sign for two or three seasons. As is increasingly common among high-profile free agents, opt-out clauses could factor into the mix.

There are still plenty of teams that need rotation help, and the fact that Rodon isn’t likely to cross into that $100MM range that’s expected of other Cy Young-caliber peers ought to make him appealing to a wide portion of the league.

We obviously can’t know where Rodon will land until the ongoing lockout is lifted, but it’s still worth taking a look at his potential market based on the context we already have. The goal here will be to identify some of the best and most plausible fits for Rodon, and there’s at least a handful of teams we know we can eliminate right off the bat.

The Orioles and Pirates, for instance, are mired in lengthy rebuilding efforts and won’t spend at this level. Ditto the A’s, who are expected to cut payroll and trade away several core players. Neither the D-backs nor the Nats have publicly committed to a full rebuild, but it seems unlikely that Rodon will land in either spot as both are more focused on the long-term than improving in 2022.

A Miami homecoming is hard to picture, given the Marlins’ generally low payrolls, pitching-rich roster and stated needs in the outfield. The Brewers are already pushing a franchise-record payroll and have three ace-caliber arms atop the staff. The Reds have been cutting payroll and are open to trading their top starters away; a Rodon match doesn’t really align with that. The Guardians are built around affordable young pitching, have needs in the lineup and have never spent like this on a free-agent arm. Tampa Bay already signed Corey Kluber and has never committed more than $30MM to a free-agent pitcher.

A.J. Preller may make me rue not taking my usual “never say never” approach to the Padres, but San Diego is already deep in relatively pricey starters and is actively trying to shed some contracts (Eric Hosmer, Wil Myers) to address the lineup. Houston is at least seven deep in starters after re-signing Justin Verlander, and adding a pricey eighth option seems unlikely. The Cardinals already signed Steven Matz and now have a pretty established top five; further rotation additions seem likelier to be of the depth variety. The Phils have an established top four and have much larger needs in the outfield and infield.That’s a quick look at which clubs feel decidedly unlikely to sign Rodon, but let’s talk some teams that could at least plausibly make this work:

That’s a quick look at which clubs feel decidedly unlikely to sign Rodon, but let’s run through some more plausible clubs, team-by-team, before trying to pick out a few of the best possible fits for the lefty:

  • Angels: Signing Noah Syndergaard and rolling the dice on Michael Lorenzen was a good start to bolstering the rotation, but the Angels could use another high-upside option, given the number of question marks up and down the current staff. You could argue that they need to focus on more certainty, but with enough high-risk upside plays, they could navigate a full season even as injuries arise. The Halos haven’t given multiple years to a free-agent starter since 2012, but if Rodon’s market tops out at three years, that’d be fewer seasons than they just committed to closer Raisel Iglesias.
  • Blue Jays: Toronto lost both Robbie Ray and Steven Matz in free agency, and they’ve since signed Kevin Gausman. Adding another bat and some bullpen help seems likelier than another high-priced starter, but it’s hard not to be tempted by the thought of a rotation featuring Gausman, Rodon, Hyun Jin Ryu, Jose Berrios and Alek Manoah. The Jays could probably sign Rodon and still clock in south of their franchise-record $163MM payroll, but another starter may not be their top need.
  • Braves: With Mike Soroka out until mid-2022, Atlanta could definitely use another starting pitcher — even after re-upping with Charlie Morton on a $20MM deal. Most of Atlanta’s post-lockout focus will be on re-signing Freddie Freeman. But Rodon fits the type of huge-upside, relatively short-term signings made in Atlanta under Alex Anthopoulos as well. If Freeman shocks everyone and leaves, Atlanta could make some big moves elsewhere on the roster.
  • Cubs: It was somewhat surprising to see the Cubs add a pair of notable free agents in Marcus Stroman and Yan Gomes, and those moves at least give cause to stop and wonder whether another big splash might be coming. Patrick Mooney and Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic both feel Rodon won’t be a priority for the Cubs, who entered the offseason hoping to add a pair of slam-dunk rotation options and have done that with Stroman and Wade Miley. Another big-name addition in the rotation doesn’t feel likely, per The Athletic duo, who suggest bullpen additions to be a likelier focus for the Cubs.
  • Dodgers: A reasonably short-term, high-priced deal for Rodon feels like something right out of the Dodgers’ playbook. Rodon showed that his upside was as high as any free agent on the market, but the health concerns will tamp down the contract length into L.A.’s preferred range. The Dodgers lost Max Scherzer, they’re not sure what will happen with Trevor Bauer, and Clayton Kershaw ended the year with even greater physical question marks before reaching free agency. On paper, it’s a strong match for a Dodgers club that needs some arms behind Walker Buehler and Julio Urias.
  • Giants: As with the Dodgers, a relatively short-term deal with an upside play like Rodon feels right up the Giants’ alley. San Francisco is reportedly believed to be averse to nine-figure free agents, and outside of the now-off-the-market Verlander, Rodon may have the best upside of any pitcher available for under $100MM. The Giants already added three stabilizing pieces to round out the rotation, so there’s plenty of sense to shooting for the moon on a fourth addition.
  • Mariners: Seattle already signed the AL Cy Young winner, but we know they’ll still be looking for starting pitching after the lockout is resolved. The M’s have a solid foursome atop the rotation, but Rodon would give them another likely postseason starter as they look to return to the playoffs for the first time in two decades. Adding an impact bat could be higher on the list of priorities for president of baseball ops Jerry Dipoto, but Seattle’s projected payroll is so low that they could sign both Rodon and one of the top remaining bats on the market while still fitting tens of millions of dollars below a franchise-record level.
  • Mets: New York already has its share of injury-prone arms, but it’s abundantly clear by now that owner Steve Cohen is pulling out all the stops as he looks to push the team toward a World Series run. Rodon, Scherzer and a healthy Jacob deGrom has the potential to be a comically dominant trio, and after the Mets topped a quarter-billion in spending prior to the lockout, we shouldn’t assume they’ll slow down when things resume.
  • Rangers: Speaking of pre-lockout spending sprees, the Rangers topped a half-billion dollars in total commitments and still have minimal certainty in the rotation. Rodon doesn’t provide the bulk innings Texas could so sorely stand to add, but for a team that’s obviously hell-bent on improving in 2022 and returning to the playoffs before long, Rodon probably can’t be firmly ruled out. Incredibly, their 2022 payroll is still projected to come in nearly $40MM shy of its all-time high.
  • Red Sox: This type of short-term upside play seems like one that’d sit well with chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom, but the Sox have also already added Rich Hill, Michael Wacha and James Paxton to the 2022 staff. The Boston rotation is teeming with upside and uncertainty alike, and Rodon would add to it on both fronts. The Sox are also over $200MM in luxury obligations, though, so Rodon could be deemed too pricey even if the luxury threshold increases under the new CBA.
  • Rockies: Persuading any pitcher to play in Coors Field is difficult, but the Rockies have money to spend. Rodon’s decision to seek a multi-year deal suggests he’s looking to max out his earning power right now, so if Colorado offers an extra year over what the rest of the field is willing to commit, perhaps they could pull off a stunner.
  • Royals: Kansas City’s estimated payroll is only around $86MM right now, so there’s obvious room to fit Rodon into the rotation as a means of taking some pressure off younger arms. They landed a pair of veteran free agents last year by going an extra year over most expectations on Mike Minor and Carlos Santana. Taking that approach with Rodon would be a vastly more expensive proposition, however. The Royals are trying to win now, but this feels like a reach even if they have the need and payroll space.
  • Tigers: An on-the-rise team with gobs of payroll space, a deep collection of near-MLB top prospects, a pitcher-friendly home park and plenty of innings available — the Tigers check basically any box you could imagine for Rodon. They’ve already signed Javier Baez and Eduardo Rodriguez, and they’re still looking for another rotation addition. Rodon drastically raises their ceiling and takes pressure of some younger arms like Tarik Skubal and Casey Mize.
  • Twins: Minnesota entered the offseason needing at least three starters, and so far they’ve…. rolled the dice on a Dylan Bundy rebound. It’s a fine move in a vacuum, but the Twins’ need for more pitching help is painstakingly obvious. Dan Hayes of The Athletic reported this week that last winter, the Twins tried to get Rodon on a minor league deal before he received that $3MM contract from the South Siders. That said, Hayes adds that Minnesota seems likelier to address its pitching needs via trade and may not be keen on taking a Rodon-sized risk with so many holes on the staff. It’s a good fit on paper, at the very least.
  • White Sox: General manager Rick Hahn has said all the right things about wanting Rodon back, but it’s hard to take those statements at face value when Chicago didn’t make him a qualifying offer. The Pale Hose already have five to six starters — though they’d probably welcome the opportunity to shed Dallas Keuchel’s final year — and had the chance to persuade Rodon with that one-year QO. The Daily Herald’s Scot Gregor suggested this week that Rodon isn’t likely to return to the Sox, who are still eyeing help in the outfield and at second base.
  • Yankees: The Bombers, in recent years, have favored risky rotation plays for volatile but immensely talented starters in the Rodon mold. Their need at shortstop is the most heavily discussed roster deficiency in the Bronx, but the rotation after Gerrit Cole and Jordan Montgomery is suspect. Domingo German finished horribly. Luis Severino has pitched a combined 18 innings in the past three years. Jameson Taillon had offseason ankle surgery. Prospects Deivi Garcia and Clarke Schmidt struggled and/or missed significant time due to injury.

In the end, any of these teams feels like at least a good theoretical match, but most come with reasons to cast doubt on whether they’d actually sign Rodon. From my vantage point, the best blend of on-paper need, available payroll space and plausible willingness to take this type of risk lies with the Angels, Dodgers, Giants, Mariners, Tigers and Yankees.

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Boras: Rodon Seeking Multi-Year Deal

By Anthony Franco | November 10, 2021 at 3:14pm CDT

The White Sox made the somewhat surprising decision to not issue an $18.4MM qualifying offer to left-hander Carlos Rodón before this past Sunday’s deadline. That allowed Rodón to hit the open market unencumbered by draft pick forfeiture, and the Sox won’t receive any compensation if the All-Star signs elsewhere.

Rodón’s agent Scott Boras jokingly thanked the organization for not making a QO while speaking with reporters (including James Fegan of the Athletic) this afternoon. Boras flatly stated that they’d have declined a QO had it been made. Moreover, he seemed to shoot down the notion of Rodón signing a one-year deal with Chicago or anyone else this winter.

“Obviously, we’re pursuing a multi-year contract and weren’t going to sign a one-year contract,” Boras said. There’d been some thought Rodón could look to maximize his 2022 earnings on a one-year pact, hope to back up his stellar 2021 showing with another great season, then set out in search of nine figures next winter. It doesn’t seem that’s the course of action Rodón will take, at least not at the outset of the offseason.

A longer-term deal is certainly a justifiable goal. On an inning for inning basis, Rodón was one of the best pitchers in baseball this past season. He tossed 132 2/3 frames of 2.37 ERA ball, ranking second among the 129 hurlers with 100+ innings pitched. He also ranked second in strikeout rate (34.6%), third in strikeout/walk rate differential (27.9 percentage points), fourth in SIERA (2.96) and seventh in swinging strike percentage (15%).

The potential holdup on Rodón hasn’t been effectiveness, but health. He was limited to just 42 1/3 innings between 2019-20 because of injuries. After staying healthy for much of the 2021 campaign, Rodón wound up on the injured list with shoulder discomfort and missed a few weeks in August.

He continued to be very effective upon his return, but his fastball and slider velocity both dropped a couple ticks down the stretch. It’s plausible Rodón deliberately backed off the throttle in preparation for the playoffs, as the Sox had all but wrapped up the AL Central title by the end of July. His fastball velocity, at least, did bounce back during his lone postseason appearance. That outing lasted just 2 2/3 innings, though, and his slider remained in its late-season 84 MPH area rather than its usual 85-87 MPH range from May through July. The White Sox were eliminated by the Astros before Rodón had an opportunity to make another start.

Teams’ evaluations of Rodón’s shoulder figure to be critical to determining his eventual market power. Unsurprisingly, Boras told reporters that the 28-year-old (29 in December) is fully healthy. If team medical staffs agree, then Rodón looks likely to receive strong multi-year offers, since he’s one of a small group of free agent hurlers who has shown himself capable of putting up ace-like numbers at his best.

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White Sox GM Rick Hahn On Kimbrel, Rodon, Kopech

By Anthony Franco | November 10, 2021 at 1:34pm CDT

The White Sox enter the offseason coming off their first division title in thirteen years. General manager Rick Hahn has met with the media a few times in recent days to discuss a couple key early offseason decisions and provide updates on a few players already under team control.

First and foremost, Hahn addressed a pair of decisions Chicago has already made: exercising a $16MM club option on reliever Craig Kimbrel and declining to issue an $18.4MM qualifying offer to starter Carlos Rodón. Last month, Bob Nightengale of USA Today suggested the Sox could look to deal Kimbrel after exercising the option, and Hahn acknowledged that as a possibility.

“We view him as a potentially impactful reliever, as he’s been for the vast majority of his career,” Hahn said of Kimbrel (via Jesse Rogers of ESPN). “What we have to figure out is if it makes the most sense to have Craig in a White Sox uniform going forward or is there a better use of that spot and him perhaps via trade?”

Kimbrel’s one of trickier players around the league to value. As Hahn noted, the righty has been one of the best relievers in recent history over the course of his career. He’s an eight-time All-Star who posted an absurd 0.49 ERA with a 46.7% strikeout rate in 36 2/3 innings for the Cubs last season. But Kimbrel struggled badly with the North Siders from 2019-20, and he was tagged for a 5.09 ERA (albeit with a still-excellent 36.7% strikeout percentage) in 23 frames after being traded to the South Side at the deadline. There’ll certainly be plenty of teams intrigued by the possibility of Kimbrel as a late-game stopper, but clubs will have to weigh his upside against his recent run of inconsistency and fairly high price tag in 2022.

On Rodón, Hahn told reporters (including Scott Merkin of MLB.com) the team remained open to his return. “(The qualifying offer) was not offered to him. It doesn’t mean we aren’t interested in bringing him back,” Hahn said. “We have not ruled out him returning.” Nightengale previously reported the Sox didn’t intend to make a great effort to bringing the southpaw back, though, and it seems likely Rodón and his representatives at the Boras Corporation will be able to top the $18.4MM QO value — which Chicago was unwilling to risk, at least this early in the offseason — on the open market.

One could make the case the Sox already have an in-house option to step into Rodón’s rotation spot in Michael Kopech. The flamethrowing righty missed all of 2019-20 after undergoing Tommy John surgery and opting out of the 2020 campaign due to concerns about COVID-19. Chicago used him as a multi-inning relief weapon this past season to keep his workload in check, but Hahn told reporters (including James Fegan of the Athletic) last week the club is committed to stretching Kopech out as a starter in 2022.

The 25-year-old Kopech worked 69 1/3 innings in 2021, posting a 3.50 ERA with a huge 36.1% strikeout percentage and a fine 8.4% walk rate. There’s some risk in taking him out of a bullpen role to which he acclimated so well, but public scouting reports have long suggested Kopech could have top-of-the-rotation upside if given the opportunity. The White Sox are set to explore that possibility, although Hahn cautioned that Kopech may not be ready to take on an ace-caliber workload from Day One.

“I’m going to probably be sitting in this chair some point next summer explaining why we are doing something with Michael in terms of giving him a break in order to keep him strong over the course of that season,” Hahn said (via Fegan). “It’s the innings base and what can we reasonably tack onto him over the course of ideally seven months next year. We are going to have to be diligent in our monitoring of him over the course of the offseason as well as he goes through spring training, and over the course of the regular season in terms of how the ball looks coming out of his hand, what his mechanics look like, what the data is telling us, how Michael is reporting how he feels.”

Hahn also provided updates on a pair of injured players last week. Lance Lynn will spend the next 3-4 weeks resting and rehabbing a right knee issue that sent him to the injured list in late August (via Mark Gonzales). Outfielder Adam Engel, meanwhile, recently underwent surgery to address a left shoulder injury that landed him on the shelf in August as well (according to Maddie Lee of NBC Sports Chicago). That procedure is not expected to affect Engel’s readiness for the start of next season.

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Notable Players Who Didn’t Receive Qualifying Offers

By Mark Polishuk | November 7, 2021 at 7:03pm CDT

Fourteen players were issued qualifying offers before today’s 4pm CT deadline, making the largest slate of offers extended since 20 players received the QO during the 2015-16 offseason.  Despite the large number, however, some notable (and surprising) names weren’t issued the one-year, $18.4MM contract by their teams, and will now enter free agency without any draft pick compensation attached to their services.

We already touched on Clayton Kershaw’s situation with the Dodgers, and now let’s look at the three other free agents (all pitchers) who were seen as possible or even probable candidates to receive the QO…

Jon Gray, Rockies

Perhaps the most curious non-decision of the day came from Denver, as the Rockies passed on giving Gray a qualifying offer despite their clear interest in retaining the right-hander.  The Denver Post’s Patrick Saunders reports that Gray “likely would have accepted” a qualifying offer, which likely factored into the team’s decision-making process.  It seems like the Rockies simply weren’t willing to pay Gray $18.4MM over one year, even though Colorado seemed comfortable in the range of a $13MM average annual value, as per their recent extension offer of a three-year deal worth around $35-$40MM.

It seems entirely possible that Gray could find more than three years and $40MM on the open market, especially without any QO compensation involved.  While the Rockies and Gray may yet work out a new contract, the Rox are now in the position of losing Gray for nothing.  This would be an especially tough blow for the club considering that they held onto Gray at the trade deadline out of the desire to sign him to a long-term extension.

Carlos Rodon, White Sox

Some late-season shoulder problems resulted in a trip to the injured list and then a reduced workload for the southpaw, putting a bit of a sour end to an otherwise tremendous year.  However, the White Sox declined to issue Rodon a qualifying offer, and may now be parting ways with Rodon entirely — both The Athletic’s James Fegan and USA Today’s Bob Nightengale indicated that the Sox weren’t going to make an effort to bring Rodon back for another year on the South Side.

With this in mind, it seems clear that the White Sox didn’t want to run the risk of Rodon accepting the QO, which seemed like a distinct possibility given his late-season shoulder woes, not to mention his lengthy past injury history.  It could be that the Sox already consider Rodon as found money, considering they took a $3MM flier on him last winter and he delivered 132 2/3 innings of 2.37 ERA ball.  The team might also have further concerns about his long-term health.  As Fegan notes, Chicago could use some type of starting depth this offseason, but it looks as though the White Sox feel they can find that rotation help at a cheaper price than Rodon at $18.4MM.

Anthony DeSclafani, Giants

One of several pitchers who have revived their careers after coming to San Francisco, DeSclafani rebounded from a rough 2020 season with the Reds to post a 3.17 ERA over 167 2/3 frames in a Giants uniform.  With some less-than-stellar Statcast numbers, however, the Giants may not have been inclined to have DeSclafani back for $18.4MM, though the team does have designs on re-signing him if possible.

There was a decent chance DeSclafani would have accepted the Giants’ QO, just as Kevin Gausman did a season ago.  Since the Giants also issued a qualifying offer to Brandon Belt that could be accepted, the club was probably wary of committing $36.8MM to just two players for their 2022 payroll, even if San Francisco has quite a bit of financial room to maneuver.

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White Sox “Optimistic” Carlos Rodon Can Contribute During Postseason

By Steve Adams | October 4, 2021 at 1:38pm CDT

The White Sox only received 28 innings from Carlos Rodon over the season’s final two months, as the left-hander missed time due to a shoulder issue and was regularly pulled after five innings even when he was healthy enough to take the mound. Part of that is likely rooted in the White Sox’ runaway lead in the American League Central, which allowed them to take a cautious approach with the resurgent southpaw. Still, his health has been something of a question mark for the Sox in recent days.

General manager Rick Hahn told reporters today the club remains “optimistic” that Rodon “will be able to contribute and help us over the course of the next month” (Twitter link via Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun Times). Rodon will only pitch once during the American League Division Series, per Hahn, and they’ll assess his workload and availability on a series-per-series basis throughout the duration of their playoff run. ESPN’s Jesse Rogers adds that Rodon will throw in the bullpen tomorrow, which will give the team additional clarity on his status.

White Sox brass is currently debating whether Lucas Giolito or Lance Lynn will start the first game of the ALDS against Houston, Hahn added (Twitter link via The Athletic’s James Fegan). The GM called his two standout righties virtually “interchangeable” and said the debate will likely boil down to which they feel is better equipped to start a second time in the Division Series, if needed. Hahn also provided an update on first baseman Jose Abreu, who missed time this weekend with a non-Covid illness but is expected to be ready for workouts leading up to Thursday’s Game 1 showdown against the Astros.

The uncertainty surrounding Rodon is not only significant with regard to the imminent playoffs but also with the offseason looming. Rodon signed a one-year, $3MM deal to return to Chicago after being non-tendered and, for much of the season, was one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball. The 28-year-old made his first All-Star team, pitched to a 2.31 first-half ERA in 89 2/3 innings, and looked to be in the midst of breaking out as the ace the Sox hoped he could be when selecting him third overall back in 2014.

Rodon blanked the Astros over seven near-perfect frames in his first post-All-Star appearance on July 18, punching out 10 batters and lowering his ERA to 2.14. That, however, was the last time he’d throw more than five innings in a single outing this season. Rodon was on the injured list from Aug. 10-26 due to fatigue in his left shoulder, and while he was effective in his return from that IL stint, he averaged just 73.6 pitches and 4 2/3 innings per outing upon activation.

Regardless of how the postseason goes, it’d be hard for the White Sox to not give strong consideration to a qualifying offer for Rodon, who demonstrated the extent of his upside with 132 2/3 frames of 2.37 ERA ball, a 34.6 percent strikeout rate and a 6.7 percent walk rate. That’ll present Rodon with an interesting decision. Accepting a qualifying offer and then repeating that success with greater health in 2022 would position him for a massive free-agent payday. On the other hand, he’d perhaps command interest on lower-cost multi-year deals right now, and taking the one-year qualifying offer comes with the risk that further injury would sap his future market.

For now, simply performing in the postseason and giving his club the best chance possible at a deep run will be the lefty’s obvious priority. That said, he’ll be a fascinating qualifying offer and free-agent case when the time does come.

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Injury Notes: Rodon, Blue Jays, Slater, Gsellman, Cardinals

By Mark Polishuk | September 5, 2021 at 10:31pm CDT

The White Sox are skipping Carlos Rodon’s next turn in the rotation due to shoulder soreness, and manager Tony La Russa told reporters (including NBC Chicago’s Maddie Lee) that the team is hopeful Rodon can pitch during the upcoming September 10-12 series with the Red Sox.  That said, “when he doesn’t feel right, it’s impossible to push it,” La Russa said, noting that in the wake of Rodon’s recent injured-list stint due to shoulder fatigue, “that’s what’s concerning, that all this should add up to where right now he would be in peak form.”

Rodon missed a little over two weeks on the IL and has pitched well in two starts since returning, posting a 2.70 ERA over 10 innings.  However, the Sox were easing Rodon back into action, limiting him to 144 total pitches over the two outings.  La Russa said Jimmy Lambert would likely be called up to take Rodon’s spot in what has become an increasingly injury-riddled pitching staff — Lucas Giolito and Lance Lynn are also on the 10-day injured list.

The latest on other injury situations around baseball…

  • Cavan Biggio and Ross Stripling are slated to begin rehab assignments at the Blue Jays’ Triple-A affiliate, Sportsnet.ca’s Shi Davidi writes (Twitter link).  Stripling was placed on the 10-day IL on August 11 with a left oblique strain and could be closer than Biggio to a return, as Stripling might be back when the Jays begin a series against the Orioles on Friday.  Biggio was already on a rehab assignment for a back problem when he suffered an elbow injury two weeks ago, thus setting back his progress.
  • The Giants placed outfielder Austin Slater on the seven-day concussion IL prior to tonight’s game.  Left-hander Sammy Long was also sent down to Triple-A, while righty Camilo Doval and outfielder Steven Duggar were recalled in corresponding moves.  Slater suffered his concussion while crashing into the outfield wall in Saturday’s game in an attempt to catch a Trea Turner home run.  Now in his fifth season with San Francisco, Slater is hitting .227/.313/.395 with 10 home runs over 288 plate appearances while seeing time at all three outfield positions.
  • Robert Gsellman began a rehab assignment at the Mets’ low-A affiliate today, Newsday’s Tim Healey tweets.  Gsellman has been sidelined since June 21 due to a torn lat muscle, and though he’ll need multiple rehab outings due to the long layoff, he is on pace to return to the Mets bullpen before the season is out.
  • Cardinals manager Mike Shildt told The Athletic’s Katie Woo and other reporters that Jack Flaherty will take the “huge step” of beginning to play catch within the next day or two.  Flaherty’s season seemed to be in jeopardy when he was placed on the IL on August 25 due to a shoulder strain, though there is some optimism that the right-hander may be able to return as either a reliever or as a piggyback starter.  In other Cardinals pitching news, Shildt said that Dakota Hudson will throw at least three more rehab starts as the righty continues to work his way back from Tommy John surgery.  The timing will be somewhat tight, but there is some hope that Hudson can return to a big league mound this season, which would mark a tremendous recovery considering that Hudson underwent his surgery in late September 2020.
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