The crop of unsigned corner outfielders remains strong, with Kris Bryant, Nick Castellanos, Kyle Schwarber, Seiya Suzuki and Michael Conforto still yet to put pen to paper. There’s a case that Castellanos is the best pure outfielder still available, although interest from what appeared to be one of his primary suitors may be more muted than expected.
Reports from before the institution of the lockout suggested the Padres were among the teams with “strong interest” in Castellanos. However, as part of a reader mailbag this week, Dennis Lin of the Athletic writes the club doesn’t seem to be “terribly high” on the 29-year-old. While San Diego was at least in contact with Castellanos’ representatives at the Boras Corporation before the lockout, Lin downplays the possibility of San Diego committing either a five-year or a nine-figure investment to Castellanos coming out of the transactions freeze.
Unsurprisingly, he and his reps came out aiming higher, reportedly seeking seven or eight guaranteed years. Something of that length (especially eight years) would register as a surprise but a strong five or six year pact would align with broader expectations; we at MLBTR predicted a five-year term at a total of $115MM on our Top 50 Free Agent rankings to begin the offseason.
No doubt part of San Diego’s reluctance to spend at that level is their already-cluttered payroll. Manny Machado ($32MM), Will Myers ($22.5MM), Eric Hosmer ($20.625MM) and Yu Darvish ($20MM) are all slated for hefty salaries in 2022, parts of a projected $199MM player payroll (via Jason Martinez of Roster Resource) that’d top last season’s franchise-record mark by by around $25MM. Lin writes that some within the organization have suggested there may not be a ton of room to take on additional salary this offseason.
San Diego has tried to save some payroll room by moving Hosmer and/or Myers in trade. Shedding much or all of Hosmer’s money ($61.5MM through 2025) would likely require attaching significant young talent, further thinning a farm system that has depleted as the Padres have pushed their chips in to compete over the past few seasons. It’d probably be easier to find a taker for Myers, who’s entering the final year of his deal. Yet that would also require paying down some money or surrendering young talent, and it’d further deplete an already lacking corner outfield group.
Also complicating matters, the Padres narrowly exceeded the luxury tax threshold last season. The previous collective bargaining agreement contained escalating penalties for teams that surpassed the tax in multiple consecutive seasons. Where the thresholds are set and whether escalating penalties for repeat payors will persist in the next CBA is to be determined but could affect the Padres willingness to push their payroll higher after the transactions freeze.
San Diego exceeding the tax is also relevant to their chances of pursuing a free agent who rejected a qualifying offer from his previous team, as Castellanos did from the Reds. As a tax payor, the Friars would relinquish their second-highest and fifth-highest selections in the 2022 amateur draft as well as $1MM in international signing bonus pool space were they to sign a qualified free agent.
So, if not the Padres, where might Castellanos and Boras turn? The Marlins have been reported to harbor interest in Castellanos, a Miami-area native, since before the offseason even began. The Fish already committed four years and $55MM to Avisail Garcia, but they’re still in the hunt for another bat. Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald wrote recently that Castellanos “would welcome” a homecoming deal with the Marlins … but only “if the terms were right.” Fish fans hoping for a hometown discount should probably temper their optimism.
Still, there’s reason to believe that if the Marlins are truly intent on bolstering their lineup, they could at least make the financials on a Castellanos signing work. Miami currently projects to have a payroll just shy of $69MM, and there’s only $27MM in guaranteed contracts on the books for the 2023 season. In terms of a positional fit, they’re already rife with corner outfield options, but GM Kim Ng has told reporters this winter that the team is comfortable utilizing Garcia in center field. It’s also possible, if not likely, that a designated hitter will be added to the National League, which would only give the Marlins — or any other NL club — more at-bats to give to Castellanos.
It must be tough being a baseball reporter these days…
It’s pretty damn tough being a baseball fan these days too…
I like how they pointed out spending a 5-year investment in Castellanos was not in the Padres plans. That’s not even close to the “7 or 8 year contract” Castellanos was asking for. I can’t think of a player whose agent overshot their value more than Boras did for Castellanos this offseason. I figured a solid AAV on a 4 or 5 year deal would be nice for this defensively challenged player. Maybe he would ask for 6 knowing he would never get it. 7 or 8? Man, that’s going to scare a lot of teams off. Does he think they look at him as the type of guy to build the entire franchise around for almost a decade? He can’t even catch a ball. Go sign Rosario and save the other $150 million for a player who’s actually worth it. Better yet, get both Rosario and Soler and still save over $100 million for a great player. Castellanos is not worth more than Rosario + Soler + $100 million.
I think the Marlins pull this off. He’d be a perfect fit.
That would quickly start to tip scales in the division.
I think the Marlins are already vastly improved. Phillies pretty much have to spend to keep up at this point. I still like the Braves assuming they keep Freddie, but man NLE is tough to predict.
Yeah the Mets and Phils are such high variance teams, the Braves won it all without Acuna, the Marlins rotation along with the moves they’ve all ready made this season. I still think the Braves are the team to beat again until it officially happens, especially with Freeman back but I could see any of the Mets, Phillies or Marlins winning 90+ games or 82.
The Braves are my pick too. They’d be stupid to not bring Freddie back. They’ll also have Acuna back and maybe Ozuna back.
With the other teams, probably the Nats are the pick for last, but they have enough talent to compete if they get some support for their studs.
The Phillies have to make some moves or they may be the big disappointment this season. They have what might be the most roster holes of any NLE team.
The Mets added some big and solid names, but the one glaring thing that stands out with those so far is the age on the birth certificates. On the surface and on paper, the Mets should have no reason to not contend and make the playoffs, especially if the playoffs expand. However, if Father Time pays them a visit this year (particularly Scherzer and Marte), they could be in trouble…and it could turn what are called good signings into more bad contracts for them. No one can predict that though.
The Marlins are also another team that have unpredictable elements, but in a good way due to the young players. No one knows when they will start coming into their own or if they ever completely do. They need them to be the foundations supported by the veterans they have. They also have a major fatal flaw – the bullpen needs a real closer. The Marlins, like the Mets and Phillies, and lesser extent with the Nats, can do anything this year.
This will be an interesting division because it’s the toughest division in MLB. May end up again having a division champion under 90 wins.
Hard to see the Marlins and Castellanos matching up on contract terms. Maybe something with an opt-out or two like he had in his last contract.
His agents HAD to be telling him to be patient and to wait until the new CBA was agreed upon just in case the DH finally comes to the NL. That would double his amount of suitors! He’s another player I’m hoping doesn’t end up in Philly mashing us.
Wrong Will Myers link
I would love to have him on the Rockies. Will rakes at Coors..
Take him. Please.
we don’t have anything to offer…want a terrible Raimel Tapia?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jkyjc6CzFyc&t=615s
Deal.
San Diego might be willing to let Myers go for free at this point in time, so long as the acquiring team pays his full salary. Maybe both teams add a young prospect to the deal but no one of consequence.
thelegendaryharambe – (smile)
But they would have to pay him, then trade him…
He’s still a terrible fielder who loses tons of value on defense.
Terrible is a gentle way of saying it.
@Cosmo2 Certain teams can afford that. Throw him in a corner OF spot with a strong CF and you’ll be fine. Not to mention the fact that the DH will eventually be in the NL. His bat is pretty big, so I think he’s still a big addition to certain teams.
What, like the fat kid you put in right field in Little League and hoped they didn’t hit it to him?
Sort of. Except the fat kid hits bombs all the time and has a decent arm.
carrer 115 ops+ including walk year heroics.
I love when people state career stats that include the first couple of years adjusting to MLB… how about 125 ops+ last four years, which is what teams care about… not what he did as a kid… plus he’s done it in cincy, Chicago and Detroit.., the guy can hit
But with Garcia in CF? I dunno.
So really, not much has changed.
7 or 8 years? Please
If you think he’s a bad outfielder now….wait 5 or 6 years in the future.
“There’s a case that Castellanos is the best-HITTING pure outfielder still available,,.”
Fixed it for ya!
Yep, nothing pure about his outfield play. And if the NL doesn’t get the DH for another five years, then what? Good luck, Nick.
Can he ACTUALLY play 3rd?
Never mind, we don’t care. Come to Seattle!!!
No. it was tried before and it failed. Hell, he can barely play the OF.
He’s basically a poor man’s JD Martinez. I don’t know anyone who wants seven years declining from that.
I thoroughly enjoyed Nicky’s tenor in DET. It was a rough way the two sides parted ways, but one that was logical for both parties. To watch him tear it up with the Cubs, and last season w/ the Reds was special! I will still be rooting for him wherever he goes.
With that being said, I really hope the Tigers sign Conforto.
I’d love to see Conforto in the Olde English D. Two problems: he’d cost a draft pick (under current rules 3rd rounder so an acceptable tradeoff IMHO) and his agent is Borass. I’d be willing if he’d accept 3 yrs. $45-$48 mill. or 4 yrs. and $60 mill. I suspect someone else might offer him more though.
I see the Tigers going for pitching. The OF is set with Grossman, Greene/Hill, and Baddoo/Reyes.
If they are relying on Reyes, Hill, or Cameron for full time duty, it’s a disappointing off-season for me. They need guys who can give quality AB’s & get on base. I get it.. “they are young”, so is the rest of the league. And I want to see Greene as much as the next Tiger fan, but not full time.
Grossman is only signed for 2022. Baddoo is still a little bit of a question mark, but Hill and Reyes come with bigger question marks. Other than Greene, I see the outfield you laid out as an outfield of a sub-.500 team. If you want the Tigers to win, upgrades are needed. Conforto is one potential upgrade.
If you think that outfield is set with that Motley Crue, you may be a bit mistaken.
Damn, Nicky’s tenor? The man can sing, too? If he’s willing to put a pierogi costume on for 5 minutes at each home game, he’d find a home in Pittsburgh
Haha Dang, I knew someone was going to comment on that. Tenure*
And now I want, but don’t have, pierogis.. so thanks!
In other words, an enterprising, inventive GM with initiative, like Al Avila, for example, could potentially identify players that contenders want, but can not get to because of payroll or QO issues. That GM potentially could absorb those QO hits, pay down salary with signing bonuses and….have some really nice trade chips available this season….
Come on Al, hire the Superfife, build the MONSTER.
Targeting known prospects with pro-ball experience has got to be more efficient than draft picks. Besides, other than dumping salary or clearing the 40, a GM like Al, should only be targeting top prospects.
Otherwise, why bother.
It’s time for Mute.
I’ve never understood bragging about muting someone.
I salute you for staying away from Yankees and Mets threads then
I mute the wife all the time
I’m not bragging; I am informing.
Never understood that either.
I think with their payroll flexibility he’d be a good fit for Minnesota. I think we could use some good news up here as there’s a drive into deep left field by Castellanos and that’ll be a home run. And so that’ll make it a 4-0 ballgame.
Unless the Phillies are already laser-locked on Schwarber, I feel like they need to keep their toe in the Castellanos market.
It’s funny both their targets make their terrible defense even worse.
Phillies will go for Correa, which will end this season’s big spending.
Rangers still need another OF bat
Did anyone else laugh at Castellanos possibly being “the best pure outfielder still available”?
Just a cursory look at his DWar says otherwise when compared with the other free agent OF. Add in multiple positions played and it gets fuzzier to compare. But on reputation alone, Castellanos is considered a bad defender everywhere he plays.
Castellanos would look great in Ranger Red or Blue, but don’t see them signing him as they have already lost draft picks. I think Suzuki is Ranger’s main OF target with Schwarber, Rosario, and Pederson behind that group. A trade for Santander or D. Smith might also be in the works. To me, K Bryant is the most sensible choice. He plays 3B until Jung is ready and then moves to LF. That way IKF can be a super-utility or trade piece for a SP.
Jung is ready. No sense stalling him at all.
I’ve felt like Castellanos would be a perfect fit for the Marlins all offseason, especially if the DH comes to the NL. Everyone knows he can’t field very well, but Castellanos’s offensive numbers since being traded away from the Tigers are borderline elite. Despite some streakiness, the guy can flat out hit, and that middle of the order slugger is still the one thing the Marlins need to really compete (along with a couple bullpen arms, perhaps). If they decide Castellanos is too expensive, Schwarber wouldn’t be a bad consolation. But it’d be cool to see Castellanos “go home” to Miami and help lead their rebuild into contention once again. It’ll all come down to money, obviously, but there is very clear mutual interest still between the Marlins and Castellanos.
“As a tax payor, the Friars would relinquish their second-highest and fifth-highest selections in the 2022 amateur draft as well as $1MM in international signing bonus pool space were they to sign a qualified free agent.”
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It’s hard to believe that it’s come to this for SD. This designation was usually reserved only for the NYY, LAD, and RS. And it usually only comes after a lot of success, when young players start to become expensive.
Redsox,Tigers,Brewers,or Giants.He would destroy AL East yards.Det he’s familiar with the organization and the city.Brewers because they need a run producer.SF because they really haven’t spent much dough and they can be in the conversation financially but will Zahan give out more then 100 million on any player available.So far he has given out no 6 figure deal in SF or anything resembling a long term contract.Miami is a pipe dream if you think they will spend money without a superstar positional player.Having great pitching depth is fantastic but you need to score runs to win.So I believe Miami isn’t in that position yet to go shopping.
Lumber and Lighting and
A Space bar that Functioning…
Did Castellanos opt out of his deal in Cincinnati because he wants to play for a contender or because he wants more money? That sort of makes a difference in where he may sign
Money