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Trade Candidate: Manuel Margot

By Mark Polishuk | February 6, 2022 at 7:43pm CDT

Kevin Kiermaier has been a fixture in Rays-related trade rumors for some years now, and this trend continued when Tampa reportedly discussed Kiermaier with the Phillies and other teams just prior to the start of the lockout.  Kiermaier’s contract (a six-year, $53.5MM extension signed in March 2017) is relatively outsized by the Rays’ modest payroll standards, and as Kiermaier is now entering the final year of that deal, there stands a greater chance that a team in need of center field help will finally step in to make Kiermaier off the Rays’ books.

Any number of teams stand out as possible fits in a Kiermaier trade based on a variety of factors, including how much of the $14.5MM still owed to Kiermaier can best be absorbed into another team’s payroll.  It’s possible Tampa Bay might be open to a deal that sees the Rays accept a minimal prospect return in exchange for a team simply taking all of Kiermaier’s remaining salary, or perhaps the Rays might add a prospect along with Kiermaier to facilitate this semi-salary dump.

But, there’s another wrinkle that could be involved in any Kiermaier negotiations.  If such talks involve how much of Kiermaier’s salary will be covered by either side, it seems likely that at least one team has asked the Rays “hey, what about your other less-expensive center fielder entering his last year of team control?”

That would be Manuel Margot, scheduled for free agency following the 2022 season and projected to earn $5MM in his final year of arbitration eligibility.  Seen as a natural center field successor to Kiermaier in the event of a trade, Margot would likely be a replacement for 2022 alone, given how the Rays generally only look to extend players in the early stages of their careers.  If Margot isn’t a long-term answer, therefore, he himself stands out as a trade chip for a Rays front office that has traditionally been open to dealing almost anyone on their roster.

Margot is no stranger to switching teams, having already been part of two prominent trades in his career.  The outfielder was part of the four-player package dealt from the Red Sox to the Padres for Craig Kimbrel in November 2015, and then Padres then shipped him to Tampa almost exactly two years ago to the day.  That deal saw the Padres acquire Emilio Pagan for Margot and prospect Logan Driscoll, and it’s a trade that now looks like a solid win for the Rays given how Pagan has struggled over his two years in San Diego.

Margot, meanwhile, has contributed 2.0 fWAR over his 172 games in a Rays uniform, largely due to his excellent defense.  As per Statcast’s Outs Above Average metric, in fact, Margot was the best overall defensive outfielder in baseball last year, with a league-best +16 OAA.  The UZR/150 (+3.7) and Defensive Runs Saved (+13) metrics largely back up that assessment, as Margot played 656 2/3 innings in right field, 182 innings in center, and 122 2/3 innings in left in 2021.

Offensively, Margot is much more of a mixed bag.  His 95 wRC+ and 96 OPS+ over his two seasons in Tampa is only slightly below average, and a .258/.317/.375 slash line over 623 plate appearances is passable considering what Margot brings to the table with his glovework.  Margot also doesn’t strike out often, and has excellent speed, even if that speed has only translated into moderate success on the basepaths (25 steals in 37 chances with the Rays).

In general, however, Margot isn’t a major threat at the dish.  He hasn’t shown much power or an ability to consistently draw walks, and while Margot may make plenty of contact, the quality of that contact is well below-average.  Margot’s hard-hit ball rates and barrel rates have both been subpar every season from 2017-21.  As one might expect from a right-handed bat, Margot’s career splits against southpaws (.760 OPS) are better than his numbers against righty pitching (.663 OPS).

All in all, Margot may not be an ideal fit as an everyday outfielder, but he is an ideal fourth outfielder or platoon partner.  His ability to play all over the outfield makes Margot a particularly valuable piece for a Rays team that values flexibility, as Margot is a natural complement to the left-handed hitting Kiermaier, Austin Meadows, and Brett Phillips (plus Margot has also spelled the righty-swinging Randy Arozarena on occasion).

While he might be a good roster fit for the Rays, however, is Margot a fit for $5MM?  That projected figure would represent the fifth-highest 2022 salary on Tampa Bay’s books, behind Kiermaier, Corey Kluber ($8MM), Mike Zunino ($7MM) and Tyler Glasnow’s $5.8MM arbitration projection.  Since the Rays are always keeping a close eye on their budget, Margot’s $5MM figure may be deemed too pricey for what he brings in a backup outfield role.

Phillips, it should be noted, has hit .204/.301/.421 in 351 PA over the last two seasons.  It isn’t exactly an offensive breakout, but it does represent a 101 wRC+/102 OPS+ that is at least a tick higher than Margot, and Phillips also brings comparable fielding and speed.

Top prospect Josh Lowe is also waiting in the wings, after playing his first two MLB games last season.  Lowe is eyed as the longer-term answer in center field anyway, and seems likely to get a good chunk of playing time in 2022 regardless of who may or may not still be around in the Rays’ outfield.

There would be risk in counting on Lowe and Phillips to handle center field in the event of another Kiermaier absence, as Kiermaier’s well-documented injury history means that Tampa Bay simply can’t count on him for a full season.  Arozarena or even switch-hitter Vidal Brujan could be deployed in center field in a pinch, to add a right-handed element to a center field mix that would be lefty-heavy if Margot wasn’t around.  We also can’t rule out the possibility that the Rays could trade Margot and then acquire another outfielder in a future move, finding another Margot-esque player on the market available at a lower cost.

As mentioned earlier, you really can’t rule much out when it comes to potential Rays trades.  It stands to reason that Kiermaier would be the preferred trade chip, yet if the questions about his health and salary prove to be too much of an obstacle, Tampa Bay might pivot to the next name down on the center field depth chart.  Even if Margot lacks Kiermaier’s upside as an everyday player, his lower salary and comparable skillset would probably appeal to roughly the same number of outfield-needy teams.  If anything, Margot’s lower salary might even bring more teams into the mix.

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MLBTR Originals Tampa Bay Rays Trade Candidate Manuel Margot

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Comments

  1. seamaholic 2

    12 months ago

    They’re pretty obviously gonna trade both.

    Reply
    • mp2891

      12 months ago

      The Rays are unlikely to trade both because KK’s replacement in CF (Phillips) is incapable of hitting LHP. Rays need to platoon Phillips and Margot in CF if they trade KK.

      Reply
      • mlb1225

        12 months ago

        I had calculated previously when they were talking about moving Kiermaier before the lockout. Last year, Margot vs LHP+Phillips vs RHP=a .259/.341/.469 line, and 16 home runs in 367 plate appearances.

        Reply
      • seamaholic 2

        12 months ago

        Eh. They’ll find a right handed CF to platoon who’s cheaper. Probably in the KK trade itself if I had to guess. They’re not gonna spend $5m on a less than league average CF with only one year of control left. And KK of course has to go, even if they have to attach a prospect to make it happen. They’re not growing any more revenue.

        Reply
        • portlandrays

          12 months ago

          That is a BIG if though. Can they find right handed CF who’s cheaper? If they fail to find one, I am sure they will ride out his contract.

        • coolpapabellx

          12 months ago

          Margot did produce 2.8 war though. If he can improve his hitting even just a bit, he could be a very solid pickup for a team that’s outfield needy and pushing for a playoff spot.

        • stymeedone

          12 months ago

          I love both the argument that they “have” to trade KK, followed a few responses later how TB doesn’t draw because there is no continuity on their roster. You do realize KK is their longest tenured player?

        • Cosmo2

          12 months ago

          They don’t draw because of location. That’s all it is.

        • Cardsthattimeforgot

          12 months ago

          Full disclosure.

          One of the reasons I’m a fan of the Rays is because there’s few long tenured players.

          I’m fascinated by their process.

      • Albert Belle's corked bat

        12 months ago

        They will trade both to make room for Josh Lowe. Lowe/ Phillips platoon.

        Reply
        • SpendNuttinWinNuttin

          12 months ago

          you typically don’t platoon 2 lefties…

    • JC#1

      12 months ago

      Seam- agreed. They will trade both if they can find a team in desperate need of a CF who will be a free agent at the end of 2022, which mean the return to TB will be modest.

      Reply
    • deweybelongsinthehall

      12 months ago

      What the article doesn’t state is Margot’s projected deal after the 22 season. As a fourth or platoon outfielder, is it possible that the Rays actually extend him? I’m not sure what’s in the pipeline should the Jays trade or lose both.

      Reply
      • seamaholic 2

        12 months ago

        The article mentions (correctly) that the Rays never do extensions except very early in the careers of potential stars.

        Reply
      • deweybelongsinthehall

        12 months ago

        As a follow up, such could depend on the next CBA and future revenue sharing. I realiz the Rays’ M.O. is find ways of replacing or improving production for less but they’ve been the best recently at winning regardless of their payroll and that empty stadium will somehow result in less attendance should they stop winning.

        Reply
  2. FredMcGriff for the HOF

    12 months ago

    No way the Rays exercise Kiermaier and his 2023 team option they will pay the 2.5 buyout. I suspect he will be traded though. Why did the Rays ever give him that extension? They’ve been actively trying to trade him at least the last 2 years.

    Reply
    • Ducky Buckin Fent

      12 months ago

      The deal was backloaded, McGriff.
      They probably didn’t think he’d still be on the roster at this point.

      Reply
      • jbigz12

        12 months ago

        Or they thought he’d breakout and turn into a star. Even with poor health and a downturn at the plate—he’s valuable. If he would’ve continued w/ his offensive production from the day he signed his extension—this could’ve been a great deal.

        They bought out all of his prime years. Made sense just didn’t work out that way

        Reply
        • SalaryCapMyth

          12 months ago

          Who was the last player that broke out and became a star WHILE still on the Rays roster? I’m pretty sure that’s Longoria, right? The Rays are an amazing club but that is just not how they operate.

        • SpendNuttinWinNuttin

          12 months ago

          Arozerana is a star right now

        • ccahoe02

          12 months ago

          Depends on your definition of a star, but 3 were involved in the pirates deal

        • Cardsthattimeforgot

          12 months ago

          Carl Crawford south like a word with you.

    • JoeBrady

      12 months ago

      FredMcGriff for the HOF
      Why did the Rays ever give him that extension?
      ================================
      Maybe because KK is an excellent player? From 2017-2021, KK has 14.6 bWAR for $38M. Even considering that some of those years were control years, that’s a heck of a deal.

      Reply
  3. Rsox

    12 months ago

    Phillies and Marlins are the obvious teams for either Margot or Kiermaier

    Reply
  4. Phillies2017

    12 months ago

    I mean, $12.2 million isn’t that bad to be honest. If they’re really that desperate to trade him, they’ll find a taker. He had a 3.4 bWAR last year.
    If you can’t pay a relatively productive player at a premium position $12.2 million, when you have no other obscene salary obligations, maybe you shouldn’t be owning a professional sports organization.
    I get it’s the Rays, but damn, revenue sharing exists for a reason

    Reply
    • seamaholic 2

      12 months ago

      They just have very little revenue. Very little gate, very little TV money. Basically all they have they get from MLB (including revenue sharing) plus some stronger gate from the playoffs. Their owner doesn’t matter at all.

      Reply
      • Cosmo2

        12 months ago

        Yea it’s the team, the location etc. any owner would have the same issues owning the Rays. Fans don’t get that owners don’t finance the team out of their pocket. Not how business works.

        Reply
    • JoeBrady

      12 months ago

      Phillies2017
      I mean, $12.2 million isn’t that bad to be honest.
      =======================================
      I’ve always said this. In the past 8 years, KK’s worst bWAR was 2.3. The NYMs paid Marte $78M/4. I think KK for one year is a much better deal.

      And the Phillies should’ve landed KK before the break.

      Reply
      • to4

        12 months ago

        Land Kiermier for CF, trade for Soto If he’s available with the top prospects the Phillies has, and sign Bryant to take over at 3B, Bohm to 1B.

        1.Soto LF
        2.Segura 2B
        3.Harper RF
        4.Bryant 3B
        5.Bohm 1B
        6.Realmuto C
        7.Gregorius SS
        8.Hoskins DH
        9.Kiermier CF

        Reply
        • bucketbrew35

          12 months ago

          We’re not getting Soto. That’s beyond ridiculous to even bring up.

        • Rsox

          12 months ago

          The Phillies would need to acquire the Rays farm system in the deal for Kiermaier just to maybe have enough prospects to try to pry Soto away from Washington

    • bucketbrew35

      12 months ago

      He’s only a $9 million and change tax hit which is even better.

      Reply
  5. saavedra

    12 months ago

    Nearly every Preller trade is a solid W for the receiving team.

    Reply
    • JC#1

      12 months ago

      Saavedra – I would agree that Preller trades in most cases have not turned out well for his team. Lol

      SD was supposed to be a powerhouse with all the spending and all the trades last season, but they ended up flopping and finished below .500. O well, they tried, which is more than what I can say for the Oriels.

      Reply
      • JoeBrady

        12 months ago

        JC#1
        O well, they tried, which is more than what I can say for the Oriels.
        ====================================
        One of my favorite sayings. Particularly if the person saying it is sitting across from me in a poker game. “I know it was a particularly egregious move, but at least I tried” is a common refrain from people exiting the poker room.

        Reply
        • JC#1

          12 months ago

          Joe – maybe the Oriels should “exit” Baltimore or better yet hire better front office personnel.

        • JoeBrady

          12 months ago

          > JC#1
          I think Elias has done a credible job. Duquette left him with nothing.

          And I wouldn’t give up on Baltimore. As badly run as the city is, it is a major port on the east coast. NYC was all but given up on, until Guiliani and Bloomberg was elected for twenty years. It’s possible that the residents of Baltimore could grow tired of living in a hell hole.

    • portlandrays

      12 months ago

      Because he fakes medical history. Even Wilcox from Snell trade got TJS after trade.

      Reply
      • JC#1

        12 months ago

        Portland- yes, same with Pomaranz to the Red Sox, as he had undisclosed injuries, so maybe it is karma.

        Reply
    • SportsFan0000

      12 months ago

      If they are not going to fire Preller, then the Padres need to put a very short lease on his trading and make him run it by Ownership/Front office committee subject to rejection and/or revision.
      On just about every trade, Preller gets hosed by the other team.
      He acts like this is fantasy baseball or something.
      Once his farm is depleted and the Padres are anchored down by multiple
      crazy, backloaded contracts, then Preller will high tail it out of town and back to the Rangers where he was traded many Padres prospects.

      Reply
    • JoeBrady

      12 months ago

      saavedra
      Nearly every Preller trade is a solid W for the receiving team.
      ===================================
      That’s because Preller and small market teams have completely opposite approaches. Preller likes pursuing expensvie, or soon to be expensive stars, and has no use for 2 WAR players.

      The small market teams look at cheap 2 WAR players as being huge bargains.

      Reply
      • SportsFan0000

        12 months ago

        No excuses!
        Make better deals.
        Do not make bad deals.
        Do not over pay for expensive veterans on the downsides of their careers etc…
        It is not rocket science. It is rather obvious.

        Reply
        • JC#1

          12 months ago

          SportsFan- 100 percent true! It seems like almost every deal SD made was “for expensive veterans on the downsides of their careers etc…”!!!

          I live in SD and the fans were excited about the big names, but disappointed about the results!!

          The SD front office spent too much money on players past their prime. Too many franchises do this when scouting, drafting, and developing your own players is a much better model to win (then supplement with FAs)

        • JoeBrady

          12 months ago

          JC#1
          I live in SD and the fans were excited about the big names, but disappointed about the results!!
          ==================================
          I remember that well. It happens to a lot of teams that have lacked success, but the SD fans were over the top. The Cubs fans also, but the opposite way.

          Most of the Cubs fans were crying non-stop about four prospects that they knew nothing about.

          And the Padre fans refused to believe that a 34 year old pitcher, with a an injury history could possibly be an injury risk.

    • bucketbrew35

      12 months ago

      Trent Grisham.

      Reply
  6. 48-team MLB

    12 months ago

    This lockout really needs to end.

    Reply
  7. someoldguy

    12 months ago

    If you could believe the Twin FO.. in that they are trying to win this season.. then they should Be all over Margot… they need a pardner for kepler who can man centerfield for when Buxton is injured.. and the have several slugs who hit home runs they should be trading.. . but… it ain’t gonna happen..

    Reply
  8. AlienBob

    12 months ago

    I am thinking Mariners Jake Fraley LF LH for Manuel Margot CF RH. Fraley has 5 years of control and a salary of only $575K. The Rays would need to add something else. ???

    Reply
    • galer18

      12 months ago

      Ah, getting Fraley back for Margot seems somewhat superfluous, since the Rays have a surplus of OFs as it is, and particularly LHP OFs. Rays would probably prefer pitching in return for Margot, but the fit is definitely there, I agree.

      Reply
      • AlienBob

        12 months ago

        The M’s have a surplus of outfielders also and would probably prefer pitching or infield to another outfielder but they need the CF defense Margot provides. Other than that there is no need to do it.

        Reply
      • Albert Belle's corked bat

        12 months ago

        The Ray’s have a surplus of pitching and infielders at AA/AAA. But they need a catching depth behind the plate.

        Reply
        • SportsFan0000

          12 months ago

          Padres, Phillies, Tigers all have a surplus of catching on their MLB teams and in their farm systems.
          Rays should make a deal with one or more of those teams.

    • gbs42

      12 months ago

      Five years of Farley is vastly more valuable than one year of Margot.

      Reply
      • AlienBob

        12 months ago

        I agree. I wonder if the Rays would throw in SS Greg Jones to balance the deal.

        Reply
    • TheGr8One

      12 months ago

      Seattle doesn’t need Margot. 2020 ROY Kyle Lewis seems to be the forgotten man. I’ll take him and his contract over Margot all day

      Reply
  9. SportsFan0000

    12 months ago

    The Phillies would probably give the Rays a “lottery ticket” player in their farm system to take Kiermaier and his salary off the Rays books.
    Wondering if the Phillies would take both Margot and Kermeir since they have multiple OF openings. They could still sign a FA LF and SS by going this route.

    Reply
  10. MannyBeingMVP

    12 months ago

    Kiermaier to Phillies in return for Gunner Mayer.

    I think that Rays will keep Margot (at least for the beginning of the season).

    Reply
  11. ohyeadam

    12 months ago

    How is 204/301/421 a better slash than 258/317/375?

    Reply
    • Cosmo2

      12 months ago

      .721 vs .692 (.301 + .421 vs .317 + .375)

      Reply
  12. SpendNuttinWinNuttin

    12 months ago

    Rays have so many options everywhere it seems impossible for them to not rule the East again.

    Reply
  13. Padres2019ha

    12 months ago

    Trade him bck the The Padres we need a CF oof

    Reply
  14. to4

    12 months ago

    Keep Margot, Send Kiermier packing!

    1.Edwards 2B – S
    2.Lowe CF – L
    3.Franco SS – S
    4.Arozarena LF – R
    5.Lowe 3B – L
    6.Margot RF – R
    7.Meadows DH – L
    8.Díaz 1B – R
    9.Zunino C – L

    Mejía C, Man-Choi 1B, Phillips OF, Walls INF/or Brujan INF/OF.

    1.McClanahan
    2.Kluber
    3.Rasmussen
    4.Baz
    5.Patiño/Fleming

    RL and CL, No set. Go with the glow as usual !

    Reply
    • to4

      12 months ago

      Not set, go with the flow as usual.

      Reply
    • FredMcGriff for the HOF

      12 months ago

      So Xavier Edwards for starting 2B in 2022 who has yet to play above AA? That of course is assuming there will be a season.

      Reply
  15. SaedFewl

    12 months ago

    Margot/JT Chargois for Matt Vierling + PTBNL

    Margot/Kiermaier/Matt Wisler/Ford Proctor/Tommy Romero/Ryan Yarbrough for Brendon Davis, Joe Adell, Reid Detmers, Griffin Canning

    Josh Fleming for Nolan Gorman

    Austin Meadows/Jayden Murray for Nick Sandlin/Dayan Frias/Xzavion Curry

    Reply
    • Sa'ed Faoul

      12 months ago

      maybe Austin Meadows/Jayden Murray/Logan Driscoll for Nick Sandlin/Dayan Frias/Xzavion Curry or Daniel Espino

      Reply
    • DarkSide830

      12 months ago

      trading Vierling for Margot still leaves the Phillies with at least one empty OF spot and still only one established OF overall. Vierling excelled last year and showed he could play CF with a decent bat. I don’t think he moves unless as part of a package for a guy like Laureano.

      Reply
  16. Dumpster Divin Theo

    12 months ago

    Stand down Margot stand down please, stand down Margot

    Reply

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