Back in March 2017, the Rays signed Kevin Kiermaier to a six-year, $53.5MM contract extension with the intention of locking in the Gold Glover as a fixture in the Tampa Bay outfield. As that contract enters its final guaranteed year, the team’s plan came to fruition…sort of. Kiermaier’s bat never took the expected leap forward, as he has hit .243/.307/.399 with 43 homers over 1817 plate appearances since the start of the 2017 season, translating to below-average (93 wRC+, 94 OPS+) offensive production. He has also played in only 486 of a possible 708 games in that five-season stretch due to a multitude of injuries.
And yet despite the missed time and the lack of consistent hitting, Kiermaier has still been worth 10.3 fWAR over the last five seasons, in large part because he remains arguably the sport’s best defensive outfielder. As per Fangraphs’ value metrics, Kiermaier has been worth $82.5MM from 2017-21, more than twice as much as his real-world earnings over the same period.
So in that sense, the Kiermaier extension has worked out for the Rays, and his presence (or lack thereof, when on the injured list) certainly hasn’t kept the team from enjoying quite a bit of on-field success. But for a team with such a limited payroll as Tampa Bay, any player making an eight-figure salary who is providing anything less than superstar-level production might not be a fit in the Rays’ financial framework. Indeed, it can be argued that if Kiermaier had been healthier over the last five years, the Rays might well have traded him long ago, given how often Kiermaier’s name has been whispered in trade rumors.
Heading into 2022, however, teams interested in acquiring Kiermaier face a bit less of a risk since he is only guaranteed one season’s worth of money. The center fielder is set to earn $14.5MM in 2022 — $12MM in salary, and the $2.5MM buyout of a $13MM club option for 2023. If Kiermaier can stay healthy and productive, then, a team could even exercise that option and keep him around for another year, adding a bit of a potential bonus to trading for the 31-year-old (who turns 32 in April).
“Less risk” doesn’t translate to no risk, of course, given Kiermaier’s checkered injury history. Counting on him to be an everyday center fielder just doesn’t seem feasible both health-wise and perhaps based on Kiermaier’s numbers, such as his .663 career OPS against left-handed pitching. If a team has a fairly inexpensive, right-handed hitting center field option already in place as a platoon partner, however, this club could take the plunge on Kiermaier and just hope that anything beyond two-thirds of a season would be gravy.
It is also quite possible that a Kiermaier trade would involve more than just Kiermaier. The Rays could certainly package him together as part of a larger multi-player swap, or maybe just include a prospect along with Kiermaier in order to better entice another team to absorb that full $14.5MM salary.
From Tampa Bay’s perspective, Kiermaier’s center field role could be relatively easily filled by Manuel Margot, a strong defender in his own right. The Rays’ starting outfield would then project as Margot, Randy Arozarena, and Austin Meadows, with Brett Phillips and Jordan Luplow as bench depth, Brandon Lowe and Vidal Brujan both capable of playing in the outfield, and top prospect Josh Lowe knocking on the door. This abundance of outfield options makes Kiermaier all the more expendable.
This season’s free agent market is very short on true center fielders, as the class consists of Starling Marte and then a large group of players who can play center in a pinch, but are better suited for regular work in the corners or at other positions. With pickings this slim on the center field front, teams in need of help up in the middle are more apt to check in with the Rays about Kiermaier, particularly clubs who miss out on Marte, or weren’t keen on meeting his asking price in the first place.
Let’s first omit the teams who either aren’t planning to contend in 2022 (the Orioles, Pirates, Diamondbacks), teams who may be more focused on payroll cuts than contending (Athletics, Reds), or the teams who are already have pretty solid center field options, or at least options that are comparable to what Kiermaier can provide — the Angels, Blue Jays, Brewers, Cardinals, Guardians, Padres, Royals, and Tigers. With these 13 clubs out of the way, let’s focus on how the remaining 16 teams break down as potential fits for a Kiermaier swap…
Teams Linked To Starling Marte
- Phillies: The club parted ways with Odubel Herrera, and various in-house options (Adam Haseley, Roman Quinn, Mickey Moniak, Luke Williams) haven’t proven themselves capable of regular work at the big league level. While the front office has implied that they have some room to spend, acquiring Kiermaier would be a relatively inexpensive way of addressing a major center field need, while allowing the Phillies to make a bigger splurge at another position.
- Rangers: Texas is ready to spend this offseason, so Kiermaier’s salary wouldn’t be an issue for the Arlington club. His shorter-term contract also gives the Rangers more flexibility with their outfield for any future moves next winter, when Texas might be making more of a full-on push to contend. For what it’s worth, the Rays and Rangers have lined up on some notable trades in recent years.
- Marlins: Kiermaier wouldn’t provide the hitting boost Miami is looking for, but there is obvious benefit to adding an elite defender to the outfield. With Kiermaier providing extra coverage on the grass, the Marlins could be more open to adding a big hitter who is less-than-stellar with the glove (i.e. Nick Castellanos, Kyle Schwarber) for a corner outfield slot.
- Mets: The Amazins have long been looking for a true everyday center fielder, and Kiermaier would provide a hugely-needed defensive boost in the outfield. One obstacle, however, could be that the Mets are already loaded with left-handed hitting outfield options.
- Giants: Kind of an imperfect match, as San Francisco might feel they already have its own version of Kiermaier in Steven Duggar. Signing Marte would be a more natural upgrade for the Giants’ center field needs, but Duggar is younger than Kiermaier, can provide maybe 80% of the same excellent glovework, and might have some untapped hitting upside.
- Astros: A little similar to the Giants’ situation, as the Astros might feel the combination of Chas McCormick, Jake Meyers, and Jose Siri can provide Kiermaier-esque production at a fraction of the price. However, Meyers will miss at least some time at the start of the season recovering from shoulder surgery, and Astros GM James Click knows Kiermaier well from Click’s time working in Tampa Bay’s front office.
- Yankees: Since Kiermaier and Aaron Hicks have equally spotty injury histories, New York might want a more stable option to replace or platoon with Hicks. The Rays could also balk at dealing Kiermaier to a division rival.
Other Teams With Outfield Needs
- Rockies: Kiermaier would look good in patrolling the vast Coors Field grass, and he would only help the run-prevention efforts of a Rockies team that was quietly one of the league’s better defensive clubs. Garrett Hampson could act as a right-handed hitting platoon partner with Kiermaier in center, though some of the Rockies’ other outfielders (Raimel Tapia, Sam Hilliard, Yonathan Daza) could be even more expendable in other trades.
- Nationals: Lane Thomas impressed after being acquired by the Cardinals, but since Thomas is a right-handed hitter, he could be paired with Kiermaier in center, or he could see time in left field. If Washington did use Thomas in a more everyday capacity in left, a Kiermaier/Victor Robles could also work for center.
- Mariners: Seattle technically already has an outfield surplus that will become even deeper once star prospect Julio Rodriguez makes his big league debut. What the M’s don’t really have, however, is a true center field option, since Jarred Kelenic looks more suited for corner outfield work and Kyle Lewis is returning from major knee surgery. Kiermaier would bring veteran experience and a great glove to the outfield, and the Mariners and Rays have a long history of swinging trades with each other.
- Cubs: While Chicago could have been slotted in the “not sure how hard they’ll be trying to contend” group, the Cubs did have trade talks with the Rays about Kiermaier this past summer, even if Kiermaier’s inclusion may have been more about salary offset than a direct interest. Still, Kiermaier would certainly fit as a regular center fielder, with Rafael Ortega then moving into something of a fourth outfield role. Ultimately, the Cubs hope to have top prospect Brennen Davis seeing regular time in center field before the season is over, so Kiermaier would be something of a short-term fix that the Cubs might not feel they need to make with Ortega already around.
- Braves: The World Series champions will have Ronald Acuna Jr. back at some point to join an outfield mix that includes Adam Duvall, Cristian Pache, Drew Waters, and Guillermo Heredia. There is also the lingering uncertainty surrounding Marcell Ozuna, who will likely face a suspension under the MLB/MLBPA domestic violence policy. Bringing Kiermaier to center field would help solidify the group, but as we saw last year, Atlanta president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos is pretty adept at rebuilding an outfield on the fly, so he might want to see how his current options play out before deciding if upgrades are necessary.
More Creative Options
- Dodgers: Chris Taylor could leave in free agency and Cody Bellinger might not be a part of the Dodgers’ future, given his struggles over the last two regular seasons. Therefore, the center field position might be in need of some help, and Dodgers president of baseball ops Andrew Friedman was the Rays’ GM when Kiermaier was initially drafted and developed in Tampa.
- Red Sox: Speaking of former Rays executives now running other front offices, Chaim Bloom could see Kiermaier as a way of upgrading the shaky Red Sox defense. Enrique Hernandez’s excellent center field glovework was a bright spot within that defensive corps, but with Kiermaier on board, Hernandez would be freed up for his intended super-utility role, with second base perhaps becoming his new regular position. As noted earlier with the Yankees, trading Kiermaier within the division might not be Tampa’s preference.
- White Sox: Another position change would be in the offing here, as while Luis Robert has looked pretty good as a defensive center fielder, he could slide nicely into a right field role if Kiermaier was acquired. Robert could also return to center field when a lefty starter is on the mound, thus opening up playing time for Andrew Vaughn or Adam Engel.
- Twins: Acquiring Kiermaier might only be a possibility for Minnesota if Byron Buxton is traded….or, maybe the Twins and Rays could arrange a trade involving both Kiermaier and Buxton. Such a deal might not really fit for either team in center field specifically, so it would need to be a pretty interesting multi-player swap to make this scenario anything more than a longshot.
MLBTR: “Looking for a match in a Kevin Kiermaier trade”
Also MLBTR: * lists more than half the league *
Uhhh… that’s because half the league could use a defensively-superior outfielder but that may not be a priority for each team.
KK is very similar to Ender Inciarte in my view. He’s an overpaid light hitting center fielder. If there is one stat you should never trust in baseball it is defensive WAR. The math and science involved in translating glove work to wins is so inexact, unproven and flat out bad that it should never be trusted for anything. The Rays have been trying to unload this guy’s contract for years. It’s not because they are a cash poor team. It’s because KK isn’t worth anything near what he is paid. If you can’t pitch and you can’t be a catcher and you can’t even hit league average you aren’t worth over $11M a year.
Could you tell me what about the math of defensive WAR you feel is inexact and flat out bad? What would it need to do to be better for you?
Also what science is involved with WAR?
Here’s some…….
Let’s say a LH pull hitter is up and there’s a shift on. The 2B is playing in short RF, the SS or 3B is paying to the right of 2B…with 2 strikes on the batter oftentimes the SS and 3B switch positions. Maybe there is no guy in short RF, but 3 infielders between 1st and 2nd. The ball is hit somewhere into the shift.
How is the range calculated as opposed to when the shift is not on?
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Nick Mankakis played RF for the Orioles while Adam Jones played CF. Mankakis covered for Jones because he didn’t have much range. The defensive stats showed Mankakis wasn’t a good RF. When Mankakis played out his option and went to the Braves, Jones said they would miss his hitting and leadership, but mostly they’d miss his defense in RF. Shortly thereafter Jones had to be moved to a corner OF spot.
Why did the defensive stats penalize Mankakis and award Jones?
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How is this calculated – runner on 3B in a tight game. Pitcher wants to throw a hard breaking ball. Catcher won’t call it as he knows he’s bad at blocking balls in the dirt, and doesn’t want the runner to score. Pitcher has to throw a fastball that gets hammered. (It’s why Thor blew up at Ramos a few years ago.)
Where’s the stat for that?
Double plays that should be made and aren’t. OF’s overthrowing cutoff men. Cutoff men out of position to take a throw. I could go on and on.
“How is the range calculated as opposed to when the shift is not on?” Range is calculated from where the player is positioned on the field when the ball is put in play. If the 3B is in shallow RF he will be graded based on his range from that spot, etc.
“Why did the defensive stats penalize Mankakis and award Jones?” Your question is kind of circular. You say Markakis is good, but the stats don’t show he is good, so why aren’t the stats better? Need something more specific than that.
“Where’s the stat for that?” Obviously, there is no stat for things that don’t happen. This is actually where I think the strongest argument is, but I don’t think that those situations happen frequently enough to claim that it is “so inexact, unproven and flat out bad.” Definitely think these moments can be a hole in the assessments currently which is why the eye test and coaches intuition are still a huge part in evaluations.
Double plays that don’t get made do get attributed in DRS. Same for poor throws as well as poor decisions like throwing home and allowing the guy to go to 2nd.
I was the one who said they are “flat out bad.” I couldn’t have put it much better than Samuel though or the fact that you pointed out the most obvious thing. “There’s no stat for things that don’t happen.” The absolute biggest flaw is trying to pretend any of this results in “Wins Above Replacement.” It’s a lie. It can’t be proven or even substantiated. I want to point out that I wasn’t saying KK was a bad player. I was saying he isn’t worth his contract regardless of what FanGraphs says. That is exactly why TB has been trying to find people to take him for years but have failed. Sometimes you have to do what the Braves did with Inciarte and eat either some or all of the contract. If FanGraphs were right about KK’s defensive WAR people would be banging on the door to get him. Why haven’t they? Because no player who hits below league average and can’t pitch or catch is worth that kind of money. TB paid him that because they mistakenly thought he would be better at hitting. Which he is not. In a league where outfielders sometimes hit for 40% above average an outfielder who hits for 7% below average just sucks.
@Samuel Just go do some research, dude. The resources are readily available. You keep ragging on defensive metrics yet the owners in their recent player proposal recommended using a potential fWAR-based salary system. Have you considered that these billionaire owners and their armed with math nerds, accountants, and business advisors would know a thing or two more than you do regarding how to evaluate defense rather than by only anecdotally? Teams have poured countless of millions into development and continuous refinement in Statcast and lidar tech.
Is there a stat for all the homeruns a batter doesn’t hit because he gets a bug in his eye? Or the fielder who misses a ball because he sneezes? What about when a pitcher doesn’t trust his changeup because he went to a palm reader who told him “your future is full of disastrous changes”? You just cant quantify this stuff, man.
*Poor grammar. Typing on mobile.
The other day he posted; “Defensive metrics are bogus. I still don’t understand how they are calculated.” That is a real quote.
????????
That’s like saying; “Relativity is bogus. I still can’t figure out the formula for Lorentz transformation.”
An attitude like that will surely drag us all back to the stone age.
@Ducky I saw that in another thread.. Einstein may be way over his head. Let’s try gravity. Can’t deny that it exists.
He can if he “doesn’t understand how it’s calculated” though.
“Gravity is bogus. I can’t figure out the difference between velocity & acceleration.”
I think KK had his chance in Tampa Bay (St. Petersburg for the people who keep saying Tampa) He is better on defense than offense, but I have an issue with him and others who like to slide and if all else fails throw yourself at the ball. I do not ever remember Mickey Mantle or Willie Mays sliding around outfields. They ran faster so they did not have to. Austin Meadows is not a good outfielder so I do not know why he is out there. Maybe with more practice… no I still do not think so. Please trade KK. There are a lot of guys willing and able to play for less money. It is tiresome to see a good player get traded. They are always trading good guys. d’Arnaud was a good player they traded. The pitchers traded or lost due to injuries and desire for more money. Charlie Morton is a good pitcher, but with the broken leg and his age I can live with that trade off. Brosseau is harder. Got to love a guy who after he nearly gets his head blown off by an intentional 101 mph pitch by Chapman in the regular season last year come back to hit a home run to eliminate the Yankees and get a nice bit of karma since he hit it off Chapman. Throwing a baseball that hard at someone off the field might get a guy charged criminally.
That was the last straw for me as far as the Yankees are concerned. I was a Yankees fan for 60 years. I have a baseball the Mick gave me with his autograph. The only Yankees things I still have are his.
@misedWAR spoken like someone who has never watched the Rays, but still has to get his useless paragraph in. Kk is fine, he’s a guy that’s a pain in the butt, and a guy that will make the opposing team mad. Is he that great on defence? Everyone says he is and he looks pretty good, I’d say yes. Can he hit? No, but seems to come through in the clutch.
I don’t know man-I agree there are some issues concerning reliability of defensive metrics (which the stat people will readily admit), but KK seems like a weird hill to die on—the eye test also has it’s obvious flaws but it doesn’t take watching too many TB games before you realize he’s a special defensive player, and he’s pretty much universally held to be the best defensive center fielder, including scouts and old school media people.
It doesn’t seem like a huge logical leap to conclude that that level of defensive proficiency has a lot of value and is definitely worth more than that team friendly deal which had him being paid like 2021 drew smyly. Tampa’s not dealing him bc they think he’s not valuable. They just have a ton of other options to plug in and they don’t want to pay anybody 15 million a year unless they feel they absolutely have to
You’re spot on about Chapman. He should have been sent for counseling and not allowed back until rehabilitated. Obviously the rules must have only allowed for a short suspension. However if someone is a danger to others I believe the rules do not apply. Would have been a way to give him an unofficial suspension for a long period of time. The Yankees management / front office had to pretend it was a slip to save face. The league failed the fans this time.
” If there is one stat you should never trust in baseball it is defensive WAR. ”
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I wouldn’t trust it over one year, but over several years, it is pretty good. Or you could go by the Fielding Bible. But my eye test tells me that KK is about as good as they come.
“but KK seems like a weird hill to die on—”
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Arguing defensive stats is usually contentious, and I prefer the Fielding Bible over UZR and DRS. But, as a RS fan, I think JBJ is a great fielder.
But I could never convince myself that he is better than KK. KK is up there with Maddox and Blair. You don’t have to go to FG or FB for this one.
He comes through occasionally. Not reliably.
Chapman was given a 5 game suspension and appealed and supposedly got a two game suspension. The kid who pitched in one of the post season games for the Yanks threw a pitch that hit a player and it was not intentional. They tossed him. It was not fair to him to be tossed when the “important” guy was not punished.
d’Arnaud wasn’t traded. Cheap and eager guys doesn’t = Elite. Brosseau stopped hitting. He was traded to make room on the roster for rule 5 candidates with higher ceilings tham Brosseau.
@Bleacher I understand that, just found it ironic. T’was a joke.
And didn’t list the Bluejays who need both a CF and a left handed bat. Now the jays will most likely have to trade Grichuk first but I still think they have a need given Springer hasn’t ever played more than 89 games in CF in one season.
D’Backs are looking to move Marte back to 2B and could use a CF. Tigers have Hill listed as CF and he hits worse than KK. Baddoo is not a CF.
But then again, these guys don’t know Detroit and Arizona have baseball teams.
In reality, Kiermaier is a one year rental.
Why would those teams spend that much payroll money as well as sending players in trade for him?
That’s the problem with all these trade scenarios – there are very few known 2022 contenders at this point that would trade and pay for one year of a quality CF.
Who are “these guys”, Bob?
Faster than you can say “bloop single by Gonzalez” the Yanks sure know who the Diamondbacks are. & the Tigers were a traditional rival for a really long time.
One year w an option.
Reading this thread, pretty sure most of you did not read the article very well.
Greene is looking to be the Tigers CF as early as April. Agree that Baddoo is more suited for LF. But they also have Reyes, Cameron and Hill all capable of holding the position if Greene is not ready. No need to pick up a $14mm placeholder.
@ Sideline Redwine;
I read the article.
“The center fielder is set to earn $14.5MM in 2022 — $12MM in salary, and the $2.5MM buyout of a $13MM club option for 2023.”
There is a slim chance that any team taking him on would pay the $13m option in 2023. They would almost surely buy him out. If they were happy with him they’d renegotiate for 2023.
For all intents and purposes, he’s a one year rental.
No need to pick up a 14 mil placeholder? So teams like the yankees and dodgers who near the luxury cap can afford a CF that cant hit?
“These guys” are mlbtrs. These guys love them some yankee rumors.
KK is not hitting, hurt a lot,gets some good catches less often. He is also getting older. Even The Mick moved to 1st base.
I’m surprised they didn’t list the Royals and Cardinals with their Gold Glove winning outfielders.
Pass unless it’s a salery dump.
*salary
*celery
The Phillies need his defense in the worst way though.
i dont care if the CF defense is better as long as the new LF has a better arm than Cutch did.
Phillies, Marlins, and Mets make the most sense.
I don’t see the Rays wanting to trade within the division with the Yankees or Red Sox as it could come back to haunt them.
I don’t see the Astros adding another Center Fielder. The question with the Nats would be have they given up on Victor Robles?
The rest of those teams could be possible to varying degrees. Twins have Buxton so unless they trade him they’re probably not really a match and the Rockies have a fair amount of Outfielders but i guess with them you never know
I’m thinking White Sox in a deal centering around Craig Kimbrel.
I assume you’re being sarcastic?
I’d wager everything I own and will ever own that trade doesn’t happen.
Rays can’t take on that contract for a reliever especially when they are trying to cut payroll. The White Sox will never give up Kimbrel for Kiermaier. The value isn’t even close nor is it addressing any sort of need. Nothing about this makes any sense.
CJIK, exactly. Sox also have Engel on the team for a defense first OF. He’s cheaper and has been a better hitter of late. Eating a little salary and getting Frazier from SD makes more sense for both teams.
“… given how often Kiermaier’s name has been whispered in trade rumors.”
Ssspppppssssss kiermaier sssspppppppsssss.
Like WAR, I think BBTV provides a pretty good quick & dirty assessment (albeit imperfect). Kiermaier is listed at -$2.8MM.
We can certainly quibble with the specificity of that number.
However, I definitely have no problem saying he actually has very little trade value. Excellent defender, can swipe a bag, & in his best seasons slightly above average offense (lifetime OPS of .720 & if you’re an OPS+ guy = 98).
He will also entail an AAV hit of a little over 11 mil. Even with the dearth of quality Centerfielders in MLB, there really isn’t much separating him from the Greg Allen’s of the league.
All that being acknowledged, I wouldn’t mind seeing Cash make a reasonable offer. Doesn’t adress leadoff like Marte would. But he would certainly buttress CF for us. & I don’t think modern front offices care much about intra-divisional trades. They tend to go with the best offer available. I really don’t see that as an impediment.
Yankees make the most sense in my mind. They are one of the few teams that can really afford to spend $8 mil on a 4th OF and he would be an improvement over Brett Gardner in CF.
D’accord, @CJikid.
& that 4th outfielder absolutely needs to be capable of handling CF. Which is the biggest reason we keep recycling Gardy.
At this point, counting on Hicksy is untenable. Lots of skills, lots of talent but averages a little over 80 games/year. I know Kiermaier is hardly the standard for durability himself. But I think the two combined would provide enough redundancy to navigate an entire season. & hopefully one is goodtogo in October.
Except why would they pay $8 mil for a 4th OF (Kiermaier) when Gardner only costs $2-4 million and doesn’t have durability issues
Because Kiermaier would be an upgrade.
One thing I like about Cashman (aside from 2020 when he invested a ton into the rotation) is he has no problem with making marginal, incremental, & depth upgrades. This would fall under that category.
Florial.
Not sure, @YBCreature.
Doesn’t look like the Yanks believe in him very much. See: Greg Allen, Jonathon Davis. Shouldn’t he have been up & playing instead of those guys if they did?
@Ducky Defensively, Florial is a stud. It’s his bat that they don’t trust.
Runs well too. & an LH power bat.
He is just extremely contact/on base challenged. & that doesn’t seem to be changing. I would have liked to see us give him some run as opposed to Allen & Davis last summer. But seeing as how they did not, I can’t help but think the front office doesn’t have a very high opinion of him.
Doubtful a deal with the Rays will be made Ducky. They have made only 4 trades and one of those was a three team trade. The most recent trade was for Mike Ford. The three team trade got us Didi.
Thanks for providing the number.
I think a good amount of time – however – they just haven’t really matched up. & as this probably falls pretty close to the category of “salary dump” & that kind of changes the math too.
There’s a fit there. & the onus would appear to be more or less financial. If it came down to equivalent offers I am sure the Ray’s would prefer to trade him elsewhere. But if the Yanks actually put forth the best offer, I have no reason to believe the Ray’s wouldn’t take it.
Their front office has all the dispassion I associate with the Mississippi River or Lake Superior or whatever
As long as no pitchers go to Tampa in the deal. Never trade pitchers to the Rays.
Florida teams get little support because only about 33-34% of us were born here which means all the yankee folks who move here go to see their team from wherever play the Florida team.
I’d be okay with letting them have Britton.
We scared the crap out of him this past season! We do not need a weak link.
I remember he was not wanting to pitch out of the dugout again. I do not recall the exact wording, but he was definitely rattled.
Didi came from Arizona. Tigers were the third team involved.
You’re right. It was the Drury deal, not Didi.
LOL
Uh, “ Since Kiermaier and Aaron Hicks have equally spotty injury histories”?
I’m not so sure KK’a injuries can be compared to those of Hicks, but maybe I’m missing something.
Also, Joe & Ducky, where the hell was Cashman when Rays were dumping Honeywell? Wouldn’t have minded that kid for a season’s trial.
I’m sensing some pushback from my Yankee guys on Kiermaier to the Yanks…
I’m for just spending money on Marte. If they trade for anyone I’d rather it be for Ketel Marte or Buxton.
I think he would be a good add on our end. His bat is fairly anemic, but as you’ve posted, he’s about league average with incredible defense. True GG performer perennially. If they get the rest of the order right, he doesn’t need to be a big bat.
I’d much rather have him than Hicks, honestly. My post was referencing the fact that I think KK has been healthier than Hicks….
Of course, Marte is my top choice, Buxton (very comp to Hicks in injuries) is my second.
Fair enough, Joe.
Those would certainly be my preferences as well. But – one way or another – something *has* to be done to reinforce center. & – though it saddens me a bit – it just cannot be GGBB again. We have to do better there.
I misunderstood that too, Clip.
He would represent a classic Brian Cashman over-engineering move. & – for me – upgrades are upgrades no matter the shape or impact. Better is better. & it’s really tough for me to admit but: Kiermaier > GGBG at this point.
Yes sir, I agree. Love GGBG, but now we have GGJG, so the moniker lives, at least.
Reinforce CF – precisely. It’s like, we don’t even really care too much what he does, as long as he does it. It’s maddening sometimes.
Back to an earlier discussion between us, Ducky. I’m really starting to lean toward Baez as a solid option at SS, here’s why:
Less years/far less expensive option; and ever since you’ve promulgated the view of GGJG as glove-first, I began looking at Baez the same way – glove-first, multi-positional IFer. And for a glove-first guy his bat is far from undesirable. Just my two cents as the market takes shape.
Gallo gotta earn it.
On Baez. Yeah, lots to like there. The glovework is outstanding. The base running sublime. & he will hit 30+ jacks. Much to the good.
& he would be a definite upgrade to Gleyber.
Part of me just thinks our fan base would have a hard time appreciating his game. Sort of like Gallo. A lot of our fans are absolutely freaking out about the shape of his production. Baez would entail the same kind of nuance. Which…well, ain’t easy to explain against the staunch BA segment of our fan base.
I do think you’re right, but it would be a lot easier to swallow if Gallo shows some positive regression and we get a Marte-type hitter to balance him out. I think the reason Gallo was so exposed last year was because we needed him to be bat like someone different, because nobody else was hitting.
A couple of guys have a positively regressed year in’22, which will certainly translate to wins, plus Marte-esque speed/bat, I think the memories will be short-lived.
Then we can all just hate on Sanchez and mlbnyyfan will be happy – lol.
Man.
That poor guy. I have tried patiently explaining for the last month & half why Phat Sancho wasn’t going to be Revenge-DFA’d. & still Friday came as a huge surprise/let down for him.
& people say I’m stubborn.
I know, he’s a true fan too, man. He’s just so tired of Gary. His hopes were so high Cash was going to cut him, meme him, and plant evidence on him.
He’s a good guy, just a bit overzealous on the Sanchez deal. Sanchez’s final tallies are good, it’s just his highs are, well, really high and his lows make me want to crawl under a rock for him.
Gardner did seem to have some trouble this year. I think if they keep him they should move him to a place better suited to his aging body.
Ducky you can have KK for free.
Kiermaier in CF, Hicks 4th OF, Rizzo at 1B, Gomes at C, plug any average or better SS (DeJong) and that’s the best defense in baseball. Sign Matz or Gray, factor a new 3B coach and see you in November.
Mets are going to rue hiring Eppler over me.
Mullins for the K-Man
O’s fans should be very grateful you don’t control the team.
They should just relocate to NC or TN already. They would draw significantly more fans in either of those states.
Their stadium contract locks them into the Tampa Bay area through 2027.
Yes but they should be making preparations now. It takes time to get a stadium deal worked out.
Your name says it all… the don’t need to move, just expand. 36 team MLB sounds like a good idea
36 is fine but the Florida teams still don’t get enough fan support.
I can agree with you on that one.
If you’re doing 36 teams with no relocation then here’s what I would add to each division…
AL East: Buffalo
AL Central: San Antonio
AL West: Portland
NL East: Charlotte
NL Central: Nashville
NL West: Las Vegas
You have 4-5 MLB franchises in markets today that can’t support a ML team.
Do you really think those markets can?
Do you think franchises that own rights in their areas will relinquish them?
And the caliber of play is awful. If anything, MLB should contract 2-4 teams….maybe 6. The Major League is supposed to be the best of the best.
If you are doing 36 teams with no relocation then you need to address the travel problem in the AL West. I would transfer Houston and Texas to AL Central and AL East and make the AL West like this:
Vancouver BC
Seattle
Portland
Oakland/Vegas
LAA
San Diego
I guess under this scenario Houston and Texas would go to the NL West to reduce travel for all and create 6 teams per division,
@ AlienBob;
MLB tried moving the Cubs to another division years ago, and got sued. The Cubs stayed in the Central.
Moving a team to another time zone impacts TV schedules with teams playing 47% of their games with their division rivals. When games start an hour too soon or too late it impacts viewership which than impacts the costs advertisers are willing to pay.
I agree. Realignment will not be without its problems. Nobody wants to give up their traditional rivalries. The NFL did it, however. The Seahawks started in the NFC West, switched to the AFC West and are now back in the NFC West. It hasn’t hurt their attendance or ratings.
@ AlienBob;
LOL
NFL Football regular season is played once a week. Primarily on a Sunday when people are off work. For 16 games.
MLB regular season is played for 26 weeks, 162 games – most of them televised.
@Samuel
Thank you, I wasn’t aware there was any scheduling differences between the two leagues.
I am still baffled that NC and/TN don’t already have professional teams. Weather is beautiful, good amateur baseball, and probably would draw some decent crowds.
Buffalo, though? I can certainly see your other options, but Buffalo? I thought maybe Montreal again….
Then swap Charlotte with Montreal and you have NL & AL Canadian teams, with TN NL & NC AL. Even splits per area.
I think you overestimate the number of people that live in those areas, or are a drive away.
Clipper I live in NC and minor league ball is well attended. The majority of fans are Braves fans. I’d like to think a major league team would do well here. Either in Charlotte or Raleigh.
Good stuff @ Joe. A lot of my friends from my hometown moved to Raleigh, and I almost moved there in 2003. My thoughts are either Charlotte or Raleigh and then Nashville would be practical for newer teams. I find it hard to believe other professional sports landed in both states and sustain but baseball can’t.
My plan is to move to NC or TN within the next 5 years.
You could go with either Columbus or Indianapolis if you think one of those cities would draw better than Buffalo.
Columbus will eat into the Reds and Guardians market. Indianapolis will eat into the 2 Chicago teams.
Any market will “eat into” another market. What’s your point?
THAT’S my point.
You think the Braves will happily give up the revenue they get from NC?
Baltimore used to be a mid-market team. The Expos moved to DC, and now the Orioles are a small-market team.
I’m a Braves fan…and honestly I think it’s boring that we have no true regional rivals.
I could see a more centralized location like Indianapolis. If you think about it, Alabama/NO may be able to support a team too. Like the SEC version of pro baseball.
Actually they’d eat into Cincy and St Louis more than Chicago.
Fascinating to think about the Suzuki competition and how it affects Kiermaier
Market.
Do you want to pay the extra dough for Suzuki’s possibilities or settle for KK’s limitations that attend his virtues?
I bet Kiermaier goes nowhere till Suzuki does.
I don’t think Suzuki plays CF.
My understanding is he is a Rightfielder. I don’t see how one has much to do with the other. Unless Suzuki plays CF? In which case your argument probably has some validity.
About Suzuki, Tom Mussa of Prospects Live said this:
“He normally plays in RF due to the arm, but realistically can man CF in the bigs thanks to his speed. I would personally play him in the corner, the arm is just too good for center. His speed will keep pitchers honest when he’s on the base paths as well.”
Merci, @Alien. Noted.
Fascinating to think about the Suzuki competition and how it affects Kiermaier
Market.
Do you want to pay the extra dough for Suzuki’s possibilities or settle for KK’s limitations that attend his virtues?
I bet Kiermaier goes nowhere till Suzuki does.
I could potentially see a fit for Kevin Kiermaier on the White Sox as this article suggests. What will not happen is the notion of Kiermaier becoming the White Sox regular CF with Luis Robert switching to RF. If Kiermaier was acquired his lefty bat might provide a decent platoon option with right-handed hitting Adam Engel in RF. Their defense in RF figures to be elite, something the White Sox haven’t seen there regularly since they traded the good Adam Eaton to help kick off their rebuild following the 2016 season.
A potential Kiermaier trade might also involve ‘extra’ White Sox ‘closer’ Craig Kimbrel. Their remaining guaranteed salaries would be a near wash. Kimbrel is owed $16M for 2022 after the White Sox somewhat surprisingly picked up his 2022 team option. Kiermaier has $14.667M guaranteed dollars remaining on his contract that includes $12,166,666M in 2022 along with a $2.5M team buyout in 2023. The White Sox would also have the opportunity to retain Kiermaier in 2023 by picking up his $13M team option.
I agree but I also think the Sox would add to the deal in return for a middle infield prospect.
Yeah, I don’t hate this idea. I don’t think Kimbrel is a realistic return (too expensive and risky for the Rays) but there’s worthwhile conversations to be had.
The White Sox might also be inclined to fill RF for just one or two seasons making Kiermaier a logical fit. They are hoping that Yoelqui Cespedes will be ready to make his MLB debut in that time frame.
The White Sox are also expected to sign another top Cuban outfielder in Oscar Colas when the next international signing period begin in January or as soon as the transaction freeze is over in the event of a lockout on December 2nd. Much like Cespedes, Colas figures to be on a fast-track to MLB as an experienced international player, the latter having already played professionally in Japan in addition to his native Cuba.
The fit is fine for the White Sox but you have the Rays ending up paying more salary. Maybe a third team jumps in that needs a closer……
I don’t think the fit is fine for the Sox. They have Robert in CF, Eloy in LF, and Vaughn/Sheets/Engel in RF. Who do you bump? Eloy doesn’t want to just DH (and the Sox have ample experience with poor fielders who hit much better when they’re in the field in Frank Thomas) and Engel is a better hitter of late, cheaper, and also an excellent fielder. Then you have Vaughn and Sheets to add some power in a platoon. If the Sox are going to trade Kimbrel it should be for a 2B or back-end starter to ease the innings load on Kopech.
Yup, no chance of having Robert and KK on the same team. One of the two would have their value halved by moving out of CF.
If James Click acquired Kevin Kiermaier for the Astros, he should fire himself. They already have better value in the 3 mentioned centerfielders. Now acquiring Marte, that’s another story. If they can get Marte for 2-3 years at $20million/year – yes, otherwise pass.
I’m sorry… if Kiermaier went to the white Sox, he would NOT start in center over Robert. Luis is a way better Offensive choice and brings just as much defensively to the table than Kiermaier. Kiermaier is a 4th outfielder or defensive replacement.
Like Engel but he can’t stay on the field. KK is a lefty – something the lineup is short on. Platoon with Engel. However costs close to 15 million. Believe the Rays end up eating some and trading for prospects. Perhaps a deadline deal if something can’t be worked out in the off-season. I believe they would have to eat half his salary now but might get away with dumping the final third (approx 5m) if he’s having a career year at the deadline. I did notice some players that were dealt at last seasons deadline had their salaries being paid for by the former team for the rest of the year in exchange for prospects. Makes a deadline deal less likely too.
Dipoto, if you’re listening…… No.
Nimmo was +5 outs above average in CF so no thanks to KK
Is Mlbtraderumors going to make an article about the top 20 players not selected to rosters and are eligible for the rule 5 draft?
15M is going to be tough to dump, especially with the cost of operations likely increasing under a new CBA. KK’s always been a tad over-rated; defensive metrics are questionable at best. And his poor bat and frequent trips to the IL places him closer to Billy Hamilton than you may think.
Can they move him? If you believe some of the rumors, they’ve been trying for years. But it MIGHT be easier this year because (a) there’s only one year left and (b) doubtless he’ll be a more inspired to stay healthy because of same.
Either way, they’ll have to eat some coin, or attach a prospect to, any deal involving KK. I can’t see them taking on a bad contract swap….they don’t want to spend the money. And again, the likely additional costs in 2022 will hit the small market guys more than their big market brethren, so it’s tough to blame them for that.
Like the Brewers and Guardians, the Rays have great patience.
I think they’ll listen to offers now. If they’re overwhelmed they’ll take one. But with a shortage of quality CF’s, once the 2022 season is under way a number of teams will find Kiermaier not just attractive, but an answer to a major problem….a bad season by their CF’s, or injuries.
He’ll probably be traded in-season, unless the Rays have injuries and need to keep him. They can eat his salary for a few months as insurance.
Why do I feel like the Rangers might be the best fit on this extended list?
The article failed to mention that Kevin Kiermaier’s brother Dan is head groundskeeper for the Cubs. I’m not saying this is reason enough (or even really a reason at all) for the Cubs to acquire him, but it is something.
This is exactly the type of move the cubs should be making this off-season. They can buy a prospect and upgrade the outfield defense.
The Cubs need a placeholder in CF, and Ortega is not that guy, so yeah, Kiermaier does make a lot of sense for one year. And if he surprises us and hits decently, the Cubs can flip him for the same kind of mid-range return they got on Joc Pedersen; if he stinks, oh well, at least the defense will be stout.
That may be why they didn’t mention it.
He also played college baseball a couple of hours south of Chicago.
Assuming the Rays are content with a salary dump trade (which seems like the most likely scenario for a trade), the Cubs would actually make a ton of sense. KK + a low-to-mid tier prospect for a PTBNL/cash. The Cubs can give him regular at bats for half a season, and at the deadline flip him to a contender for another low-to-mid tier prospect (with some salary retained and/or the buyout money kicked in). The Cubs would be using their financial flexibility and might to buy a couple prospects, and the Rays should value the financial flexibility and roster upgrade more the lower level prospect.
You’ve got the Cubs paying KK and also sending cash??
In terms of acquiring KK, I’m talking nominal cash value (maybe literally $1–happens more often than you’d think) or player value (minor league depth). In terms of a deadline trade, I’m saying eat some of the money to enhance return–if you don’t like the offers you can always just keep him for the year.
Doubt the Rays move him. 31 year old elite defensive CF in a contract year can spin some serious results. Look at what his value has already been with an under performing bat. Imagine if he was even league average offensively what his value would be. He is playing for his last contract…I’m expecting some big numbers that could garner some MVP votes.
I understand what your point is, but that’s exactly why it is a Rays’-type move. They always sell while they can instead of hanging on for performance. If there was anyone I thought they’d keep for the long-haul it would’ve been Longo.
Problem is that he’s been seen as worth less than his contract by many across baseball for a while though. And, MVP votes? You’re dreaming.
I would like to see the Cubs bring him in to strengthen a weak defensive outfield. Brennan Davis will probably play a lot of RF, especially if Heyward struggles out of the gate. Or when he struggles out of the gate. Davis could also play some CF at times. It would be mostly a salary dump for Rays, so wouldn’t have to give up much.
Mets
The Dodger analysis is just dumb. That organization values versatility and KK is an outfielder through and through. He has no value at any other position. And the writer talks about investing in an older KK while giving up on Bellinger? Jeeeeezus.
I think the AL makes more sense for KK because in the NL it leaves a lineup with 2 pitcher type hitters.
I wouldn’t say 2 automatic outs but it weakens an NL lineup more so than it would an AL lineup with the DH.
Just a thought. My opinion.
DH seems likely to be coming to the NL so this may be a moot point.
The odds of the NL not having the DH in 2022 are low.
The Boston outfield defense wasn’t “shaky” at all—the defensive problems were all in the infield, including when Kike played second. Ridiculous speculation. The chances of the Sox wanting or getting Keirmier is zero.
The Rangers already have Odalis. And they would rather give Taveras a chance in Center Field than a 15M defensive only player when they can sign Suzuki or Marte.
Kiermaier is a player and contract the Rays miscalculated. His hitting declined and they couldn’t move him. With one year and about $14.6M remaining, coupled with a slight rebound in 2021, and he can be moved, but his cost and short-term control will still limit return.
Is no one going to mention how good looking this guy is?
Anyways, was actually surprised to see his career slash line, always felt he was doing better. Maybe just vs the Jays
Cardinals as a platoon partner with Bader who has always struggled vs righties until this year?
He’d be a 4th OF, CF back up and if he or Bader played right late in the games the defense would be insane.
Would need to be creative with the contract, but the roster would look great depth wise
For all the kvetching about Kiermaier’s bat, he put up 2.1 oWAR in 2021 and 15.1 oWAR for his career. Combine that with stellar defense and this man is valuable. In fact, he was the Rays’ sixth most valuable player last year in overall bWAR, though he only got into 122 games. I don’t see him going anywhere unless the Rays get an overwhelming offer.
He was pretty good on offense this year. But do teams expect him to duplicate that while staying healthy?
Phillies make a ton of sense, can’t fill it internally, and probably will get outbid for Marte. No farm system to speak of, but maybe they’ll take a shot on cost controlled guys like Kingery, Moniak, and Haseley.
He actually would fit well with Atlanta as Heredia could be his platoon partner in CF. You then give Pache and Waters another full season in AAA for development and if they’re killing it you can always use them when someone inevitably needs an IL stint.
Good fielder with average bat. Payroll would be a problem at his age. Teams have to assume he plays fewer games going forward.
Cubs already have an over paid right fielder. Yes a great defense helps but not when you have no starting pitching. If Cubs spend it better be on SP
Kiermaier is due over $12M next year and if you decline his $13M option for 2024 he is due a $2.5M buyout. In his eight year career he has played over 130 games in a season once. As a Phillies fan I say please don’t go after this guy. At this point in his career he can’t be considered as anything but a defensive replacement and very spot starter. If the Rays find a trade partner it will be for another bad contract or they’ll really have to pony up for around $10M of that money.
There are not 30 CF’s in the league better than him, not even close, there is no way he is a defensive replacement at this point.
I’m not saying there are 30 CFs better than him IF he’s healthy. in his eight full seasons he is averaging 106 games played a year. He’s 32 next year so he’s reaching an age where many CFs lose some of their range on top of he’s never healthy a full season. If I’m a GM I can’t feel too comfortable penciling him in as a starter. Plus, how much of that $14.6 he’s still due are you willing to take on.
Article in ‘The Good Phight’ has Long, the new hitting coach, pumping up Schwarber for left field. Phillies need KK in center if that happens.
I would love to see the Phillies get Schwarber, but not in LF. I’d love to see him in Philly as a DH (if that happens) or at 1B if they can get a half decent deal for Hoskins.
If he gets attached with Joey Wendle then I could see the Mariners making sense but if it is for KK on his own there is no point in my eyes
The NYY should look him up. Have the Rays pick up half his salary, and throw a semi-decent prospect. KK has an injury history, but there is a decent chance that they could get 162 games out of him and Hicks.
Maybe not a great solution, but I see Marte as being a weaker solution.
$14.5m for a sub .700 OPS, injury prone 31 year old. No thanks.
In two different MLB the Show franchises I had, buddy was traded to Colorado and played there several seasons enjoying good success. Must mean I have seen the future.