The Astros are moving right-hander Cristian Javier from the bullpen back into what will now be a six-man rotation, manager Dusty Baker told reporters yesterday (link via Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle). Houston is facing a daunting stretch of 33 games in the next 34 days, and Baker revealed that the team has been expecting to move to a six-man rotation since Spring Training, recognizing this marathon stretch on the schedule.
Javier joins Justin Verlander, Framber Valdez, Luis Garcia, Jose Urquidy and Jake Odorizzi in what Baker termed a “temporary” six-man rotation. Of course, the fact that the team isn’t planning to trot out a six-man unit for the duration of the season doesn’t mean that Javier is ticketed for bullpen work once this imposing stretch of games draws to a close. Injuries can always alter the picture, and right-hander Lance McCullers Jr. will be eligible to return not long after this 34-day gauntlet. The Astros will also surely need to see better results from Odorizzi (nine runs, five strikeouts, seven walks in nine innings) and Urquidy (5.52 ERA, 11.3% strikeout rate in 14 2/3 innings) for either to hold their starting job in the long term.
Odorizzi, in particular, has drawn the ire of fans early in the season. The righty has gotten out to a slow start for a second straight year, but it’s worth pointing out that in his final 96 2/3 innings after returning from the injured list last season, he pitched to a 3.72 ERA with a 19.8% strikeout rate and 7.7% walk rate — solid marks that generally fall in line with his career numbers. Odorizzi is playing the 2022 season on a $5MM base salary and is also owed at least a $3.25MM buyout on next year’s $6.5MM player option. He can earn up to $6.75MM via incentives this year, with a $500K bonus for reaching 100 innings and then a $1MM incentive for every 10 innings thereafter, up through 150. He’d receive a $1.25MM bonus for hitting 160 innings.
Turning back to Javier, there’s an easy argument that, based on the talented 25-year-old’s prior success as a starter, a permanent move to the rotation is the right call. While his velocity and strikeout rate are higher when working out of the ’pen, as one would expect, Javier nevertheless carries a 3.42 ERA and a hearty 26.7% strikeout rate in 19 career appearances as a starter. His 9.8% walk rate when starting games is a good bit lower than the 12.1% mark he’s posted out of the ’pen, and while it’s still a small sample, Javier hasn’t shown the drastic splits that many pitchers have when facing a lineup for a third time. Opponents have batted .151/.270/.377 against Javier when facing him for the third time in a day.
Looking beyond the current season and what Javier’s move to the rotation could mean for the 2022 Astros, there’d be notable ramifications as soon as 2023. Javier is eligible for arbitration for the first time this winter, and he’d be poised for a much larger jump in salary with a successful season’s worth of starts than he would with a season worth of multi-inning relief work. Javier was placed into a long relief role in order to keep him stretched as a starter, Baker noted, but that’s meant only three appearances thus far. Dominant as they’ve been — Javier has yet to allow a run and has fanned 12 of his 31 opponents (38.7%) — Javier hasn’t been put in position to earn a save or a hold, either of which could help his case in arbitration. Working as a starter seems likely to be the best use of his talents for the Astros, but it’s also best for him and his long-term earning capacity in arbitration.
Javier’s first start of the season will be a road outing against the Rangers on Wednesday this week. He’s thrown 28, 53 and 55 pitches in his first three appearances this season, so it’s unlikely he’ll be tasked with tossing 100 pitches and pitching deep into the game. Five to six innings is probably the longest he’ll be allowed to pitch, depending on his efficiency, but the fact that he eclipsed 50 pitches both on April 13 and April 20 indicates that he won’t need to go through a particularly lengthy build-up process.
Good.
I’m old enough to remember the transition from the four-man to the five-man rotation across baseball. I believe they even referred to it as the modified four-man rotation as they mixed in a fifth starter. This is how it starts. Then it spreads.
I’m old enough as well. Back as recently as 1973, Wilbur wood won 24 & lost 20 after starting 48 games & pitching 359 innings for the White Sox. What a massive change in philosophy!
actually, since 1910 or so, the ONLY time straight 4-man rotations have been even close to the norm was in the early 70s. Six starters with 10-plus starts apiece has been far more common in baseball history than a 4-man rotation.
I would think that’s based on injuries not necessarily setting a six man rotation
It was more a factor of double headers, going with the hot hand, gut feelings, etc – starters were often chosen day of the game – Stengel Yankees and Murtaugh era(s) Pirates ALWAYS used 6 guys. here’s a list of everybody who ever started 39 games or more in MLB – you will see that it was exceedingly rare in the 20s, 30s, 40s, and 50s, but pervasive in the 60s and 70s (as well as, of course, 1876-1918 or so)
if I could expand that list to everybody starting over 34 games in a season, it would be even more apparent
baseball-reference.com/leaders/GS_season.shtml
Wilbur had a great knuckleball and a rubber arm. I believe 1973 was the season he started both ends of a doubleheader. Wood as a reliever led the league in games appeared for three straight seasons, then converted to a starter, and eventually led the league in starts for four straight seasons. That has to be a first and last. Like Mike Marshall and his screwball, I wonder if we’ve seen the end of knuckleball pitchers?
When they were starting to transition to using a five-man rotation more frequently, the best starters still went nearly every fourth day, so Palmer, Hunter, Carlton and a few others approached 40 starts a year. I wonder if they’ll do the same here if teams truly do start going to a modified five-man rotation (meaning mixing in a sixth starter on more occasions) so that a Scherzer or a Cole still go every 5th day? Different times, so perhaps not, but teams will want to maximize their investments and best pitchers.
They’re one of maybe 3 or 4 teams that have 6 guys who can start a game and not be expected to destroy the pen by going 2 and a third or what have you, which defeats the purpose. Most teams barely have 5, and as injuries pile up fewer and fewer will have the Astros’ luxury. So, not anytime soon will it spread!
Having 33 games in 34 days is ridiculous and unnecessary. The league should have figured something else out, unless it’s the result of rainouts.
I took a look at their schedule to see if there were double headers to make up for the first week, and no. Just a bad scheduling job.
They have a 39 year old TJ recovery case who hasn’t pitched for two years, another younger guy who pitched a career high number of innings last season, and a guy who is sucking it pretty badly, in addition to that 33 game stretch.
I wouldn’t worry too much. Most teams don’t have a solid five starters anyway, hard to work in a sixth when you don’t even have three or four.
finally getting the most out of him
Javier is super talented so this makes a lot of sense. Wouldn’t be surprised to see Odorizzi moved to the bullpen eventually.
The Red Sox seem to be doing the same thing with Garrett Whitlock as well.
How both Odorizzi and Javier pitch over the next 30+ games will determine who goes to the pen. Javier seems like the better pitcher at this stage.
I would like to see Javier stay in the starting rotation and Odorizzi moved to another organization. A change of scenery may do him some good anyways.
The best organization in MLB working with their players – especially pitchers.
It’s unbelievable how as they slowly give young players more responsibility / playing time those guys productivity sort of sneaks up on me.
Jeremy Pena is 24 years-old and to me has been the surprise of the season thus far. No, he’s not Carlos Correa, but he plays an excellent SS, battles each bat, seems to make big plays and like most Astros players has a high Baseball IQ.
Pena was one of the best prospects in baseball. Isn’t THAT surprising that he’s good.
Peña’s been one of the best gloves since he was drafted. He turned it on w the bat last year. I was all over this guy before the season started. He’s a good one. If you’ve been watching his progression—you’d have known there was a good player coming.
Don’t think he’ll ever hit quite like Correa but he’ll do everything else just as well.
And yet he wasn’t on MLB’s top one hundred minor league players, keep in mind he only had 30 games above AA.
Yes, everyone knew he would be as good as he’s been……..
Which is why we read articles and comments here all offseason about how the Astros should sign Story.
I don’t read MLB’s top 100 very often. The guys at fangraphs do a much better job and he was certainly on that list.
The best organization in MLB working with their players — especially signaling.
*GALVESTON GOPHERS
Beaumont Drillers
It is good to have depth. This move makes a lot of sense. As of now it looks like there will be at least one demotion to the bullpen at the end of this stretch, but baseball has a way of working these things out.
It all sounds good until they reach May 1, and the three extra players have to be sent down. Lets thin those bullpens!
Good point. That will make this a bit difficult. Moving one bullpen piece out then likely shipping another 2 down to AAA is a big hit.
At least on the surface. Perhaps they have some guys with options.
Don’t think it will be pitchers going to AAA 2 of the three will be position players
Figured Odorizzi would’ve been traded before the season began. He was vocal about being removed early from starts and I don’t think he was on the playoff roster.
Not a lot of confidence in him right now, especially after the last game and didn’t get out of the 1st Inning with 40 + pitches
LOUISVILLE SLUGGERS
Stros should see if Joey Gallo is available, they need a spark and obv he needs to be somewhere besides New York
A Yankees/Astros swap would be shocking considering the amount of hatred towards each other
Pass.
Just put up 2 on the rangers, i doubt they’d pass on much
Gallo strikeouts a lot and hits for a poor average routinely. I’m 100% sure they’d pass unless they’re getting something better as part of the package.
Odorizzi is stinky.
Dusty loves his six man rotations. Always has.
I doubt Jake Odorizzi will be traded. If Odorizzi gets traded, it will be to a NL team. It could come back to bite them otherwise.