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Astros Moving Cristian Javier Into Rotation

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The Astros are moving right-hander Cristian Javier from the bullpen back into what will now be a six-man rotation, manager Dusty Baker told reporters yesterday (link via Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle). Houston is facing a daunting stretch of 33 games in the next 34 days, and Baker revealed that the team has been expecting to move to a six-man rotation since Spring Training, recognizing this marathon stretch on the schedule.

Javier joins Justin Verlander, Framber Valdez, Luis Garcia, Jose Urquidy and Jake Odorizzi in what Baker termed a “temporary” six-man rotation. Of course, the fact that the team isn’t planning to trot out a six-man unit for the duration of the season doesn’t mean that Javier is ticketed for bullpen work once this imposing stretch of games draws to a close. Injuries can always alter the picture, and right-hander Lance McCullers Jr. will be eligible to return not long after this 34-day gauntlet. The Astros will also surely need to see better results from Odorizzi (nine runs, five strikeouts, seven walks in nine innings) and Urquidy (5.52 ERA, 11.3% strikeout rate in 14 2/3 innings) for either to hold their starting job in the long term.

Odorizzi, in particular, has drawn the ire of fans early in the season. The righty has gotten out to a slow start for a second straight year, but it’s worth pointing out that in his final 96 2/3 innings after returning from the injured list last season, he pitched to a 3.72 ERA with a 19.8% strikeout rate and 7.7% walk rate — solid marks that generally fall in line with his career numbers. Odorizzi is playing the 2022 season on a $5MM base salary and is also owed at least a $3.25MM buyout on next year’s $6.5MM player option. He can earn up to $6.75MM via incentives this year, with a $500K bonus for reaching 100 innings and then a $1MM incentive for every 10 innings thereafter, up through 150. He’d receive a $1.25MM bonus for hitting 160 innings.

Turning back to Javier, there’s an easy argument that, based on the talented 25-year-old’s prior success as a starter, a permanent move to the rotation is the right call. While his velocity and strikeout rate are higher when working out of the ’pen, as one would expect, Javier nevertheless carries a 3.42 ERA and a hearty 26.7% strikeout rate in 19 career appearances as a starter. His 9.8% walk rate when starting games is a good bit lower than the 12.1% mark he’s posted out of the ’pen, and while it’s still a small sample, Javier hasn’t shown the drastic splits that many pitchers have when facing a lineup for a third time. Opponents have batted .151/.270/.377 against Javier when facing him for the third time in a day.

Looking beyond the current season and what Javier’s move to the rotation could mean for the 2022 Astros, there’d be notable ramifications as soon as 2023. Javier is eligible for arbitration for the first time this winter, and he’d be poised for a much larger jump in salary with a successful season’s worth of starts than he would with a season worth of multi-inning relief work. Javier was placed into a long relief role in order to keep him stretched as a starter, Baker noted, but that’s meant only three appearances thus far. Dominant as they’ve been — Javier has yet to allow a run and has fanned 12 of his 31 opponents (38.7%) — Javier hasn’t been put in position to earn a save or a hold, either of which could help his case in arbitration. Working as a starter seems likely to be the best use of his talents for the Astros, but it’s also best for him and his long-term earning capacity in arbitration.

Javier’s first start of the season will be a road outing against the Rangers on Wednesday this week. He’s thrown 28, 53 and 55 pitches in his first three appearances this season, so it’s unlikely he’ll be tasked with tossing 100 pitches and pitching deep into the game. Five to six innings is probably the longest he’ll be allowed to pitch, depending on his efficiency, but the fact that he eclipsed 50 pitches both on April 13 and April 20 indicates that he won’t need to go through a particularly lengthy build-up process.

Astros To Start Jose Urquidy In Game Three

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The latest updates from manager Dusty Baker on the Astros’ plans moving forward…

  • Jose Urquidy will get the start in game three over veteran Jake Odorizzi, per Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle (via Twitter). Urquidy has flashed star potential during his Houston tenure, including at times this season. He made 20 starts with a 3.62 ERA/4.14 FIP over 107 innings with a 21.3 percent strikeout rate, 4.5 percent walk rate, and 31.7 percent flyball rate. Urquidy beat the Red Sox back on May 31st, tossing six innings and yielding just one run on three hits while striking out nine.
  • Rafael Montero threw a bullpen session today. The Astros are holding out hope that Montero could be helpful in the World Series, should they survive the Red Sox, per ESPN’s Marly Rivera (via Twitter). Montero had a disastrous season with the Mariners, getting tagged with a 7.27 ERA over 43 1/3 innings, despite a 4.05 FIP. The Astros acquired him along with Kendall Graveman at the trade deadline. He made four scoreless appearances with the Astros before shoulder discomfort sent him to the injured list.

Looking Ahead To The ALCS Rotations

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The Red Sox will go with Chris Sale and Nathan Eovaldi in the first two games of the ALCS against the Astros, but it’s anyone’s guess as to who might be available for game three.

The uncertainty stems not from an uneven rotation, but from an uncertain group of relievers. Manager Alex Cora’s other available starters – Eduardo Rodriguez, Tanner Houck, and Nick Pivetta – will be available out in the bullpen for the start of the series, writes MLB.com’s Daniel Kramer. That’s a strategy that worked for Cora in the ALDS. Pivetta proved crucial out of the pen against the Rays, a performance redolent of Eovaldi’s own in the 2018 World Series. Houck tossed seven innings of relief in the series as well, yielding just a pair of runs.

Whereas the Red Sox were able to patchwork their bullpen for a four-game series win against the Rays, they will likely need an even more dynamic approach to survive a seven-game tilt against the Astros’ potent offense. There is definite potential for this series to turn into a slugfest, not only because these two clubs boast the first and fifth ranked offenses in the game by runs scored in the regular season, but because the Astros are likely to be without Lance McCullers Jr. Results of the MRI on his sore forearm have yet to be revealed.

McCullers may not be viewed nationally as an ace, he’s been nothing short of stellar in the postseason. He owns a 2.83 ERA in 57 1/3 career postseason innings.

And while McCullers can boast the distinction of having started a game seven of the World Series back in 2017 (a win), he could be replaced by another righty who’s held that honor. Zack Greinke started game seven of the World Series in 2019 for Houston (a loss), and though he’s not likely to put up a full starter’s load, he could be used as an opener in McCullers’ stead, writes The Athletic’s Jack Kaplan. Jose Urquidy, Cristian Javier, and Jake Odorizzi are also candidates to pick up bulk innings if McCullers is unavailable.

What we do know is that Framber Valdez will take on Sale in game one, while Luis Garcia will go head-to-head with Eovaldi in game two, per Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle. The Red Sox have the experience edge, but Valdez is no stranger to postseason success. Garcia, meanwhile, has at least gotten his feet wet in the playoffs: he had a scoreless two-inning outing in 2020 and 2 2/3 innings as the starter in game three versus the White Sox.

Every Team’s Initial September Callups

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The limit on active roster players expanded from 26 to 28 today, as the calendar flipped to September. Every team announced at least two additions to the big league club (some teams made three or more due to injured list placements). Here’s a recap of today’s spate of transactions:

West Injury Notes: Paddack, Gray, Ibanez, Ohtani, Astros

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Padres starter Chris Paddack appears to be ready to come off the IL to start Monday’s game in Arizona, according to Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune. Acee says that Padres manager Jayce Tingler didn’t confirm the plan, but then later listed Paddack as Monday’s starter on Twitter.

For Paddack, his third big league season has been a disappointing one, logging an ERA of 5.13 over 93 innings. That’s a spike from last year’s 4.73 and his 3.33 mark from 2019. His strikeout rate has also gone in the wrong direction. After a solid 26.9% rate in his debut season, it dropped to 23.7% last year and sits at 22.5% so far this year. However, his walk rate has stuck around 5% in every season, which is excellent. (MLB average is 8.7% this year.)

Despite those struggles, the team has certainly missed Paddack. Since the righty went on the shelf July 31st with an oblique issue, the team has been on a disastrous slide. They’ve gone 9-15 so far in the month of August, surrendering the final National League playoff spot to Cincinnati. During that time, the rotation was missing not only Paddack, but also Yu Darvish. They tried to patch over those absences with the addition of Jake Arrieta, only to see him land on the IL himself after just one start of 3 1/3 innings. With Darvish having already returned and Paddack on the way, that could allow the team to steady the ship and finish strong, as they try to retake the Reds over the season’s final weeks.

Other notes from the west…

  • Rockies starter Jon Gray left last night’s start after 48 pitches. Manager Bud Black told reporters, including Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post, that the move was precautionary and related to some forearm tightness. Nick Groke of The Athletic gets a bit more granular, explaining that the injured area appears to be away from the ulnar collateral ligament, hopefully negating the worst fears of Rockies fans. Though the extent of the injury remains to be seen, it makes sense for the club to be cautious, as they are 11 games out of a playoff spot. Gray is a free agent at year’s end, but the Rockies are reportedly hoping to sign him to an extension. They will also have to decide on whether or not to issue him a qualifying offer at the end of the season. Gray would surely warrant the offer if he’s healthy. Over 806 2/3 career innings, Gray has an ERA of 4.52 while pitching primarily in the most hitter-friendly ballpark in the league, producing 15.7 fWAR.
  • Rangers infielder Andy Ibanez left last night’s game with left hamstring tightness, per Kennedi Landry of MLB.com. She quotes Rangers manager Chris Woodward as being “not optimistic” about the injury. Regardless of the eventual severity of the injury, the club has every reason to be cautious, as they have one of the worst records in the league and no shot at contending. If this is the end of the season for Ibanez, it will go down as a solid rookie campaign for the 28-year-old. He’s hit .260/.304/.415, wRC+ of 96, while splitting time between first, second and third base, as well as one game in left field.
  • Shohei Ohtani was hit on the hand by a pitch in last night’s game, while serving as the designated hitter. However, he stuck around for the remainder of the contest and x-rays on the hand came back negative. Angels manager Jeff Madden told reporters, including Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register, that Ohtani should be fine to make his scheduled start on Tuesday. That is good news for the club and baseball fans in general, as Ohtani is having the most unique and fascinating season that baseball has seen in quite some time, if not ever. He’s currently the MLB home run leader with 41, and has an overall slash line of .264/.363/.623, producing a wRC+ of 160 which is currently bested by only two other qualified hitters. (Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bryce Harper) All of that is combined with Ohtani’s 105 innings in the Angels’ starting rotation with an ERA of 3.00.
  • The Astros could be getting a couple of players back this week. Jose Urquidy is pitching in a rehab game tonight, which could be his last before returning, according to Jake Kaplan of The Athletic. Urquidy has only been able to make 14 starts this season because of injuries but has been excellent when healthy, putting up an ERA of 3.38. It’s unclear who would be bumped from the rotation in his absence, but some have speculated that Luis Garcia could be an option. Garcia has already set a career high in innings pitched this year and has seen his results slip a bit recently. Since July 26th, he has an ERA of 4.22. The club has already moved another young starter, Cristian Javier, to the bullpen as a way to manage his workload. The Astros could also be welcoming Chas McCormick back later this week. General manager James Click told various reporters, including Mark Berman of Fox 26, that the outfielder could be back as soon as Friday. The club hasn’t suffered much in McCormick’s absence, given that Jake Meyers has been manning center field and has been on a tear. Since having his contract selected last month, in the first 20 games of his career, Meyers is slashing .323/.348/.523.

Astros Reinstate Pedro Baez From Injured List

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The Astros announced they’re activating reliever Pedro Báez from the 60-day injured list in advance of tonight’s game against the Rockies. Bullpen colleague Rafael Montero is landing on the 10-day injured list with right shoulder discomfort in a corresponding move. To open space for Báez on the 40-man roster, the club transferred righty Andre Scrubb from the 10-day to the 60-day injured list.

Báez, signed to a two-year deal over the winter, is finally in line to make his Astros debut. The 33-year-old missed a few weeks in Spring Training after testing positive for COVID-19, then felt soreness in his right shoulder during his attempt to ramp up a throwing program. The latter issue has kept him out of action for the past few months as the soreness has persisted. Fortunately, he’s now apparently healthy and able to contribute for the stretch run.

During his time with the Dodgers, Báez was quietly one of the league’s more consistent and productive relievers. He posted an ERA between 2.63 and 3.35 during each of his seven seasons in L.A. While Báez’s run prevention numbers never wavered, his peripherals have tailed off in recent seasons. The righty struck out a career-worst 18.6% of opponents last year with accompanying dips in swinging strike rate and velocity.

That came in a 17-inning sample during an anomalous year, though, and the Astros felt comfortable enough to add Báez on a $12.5MM guarantee. If he pitches at or near the level he showed throughout his Dodgers’ tenure, Báez would be a significant upgrade to a Houston relief unit that’s middle of the pack in terms of ERA (3.97) and strikeout/walk rate differential (15.2 percentage points).

Houston added Montero alongside Kendall Graveman from the Mariners at the trade deadline as part of an effort to shore up the bullpen. Montero had a nightmarish time in Seattle, but he’d begun his Astros tenure with six innings of one-run ball. He left Sunday’s game against the Twins with a shoulder issue, though, and his recovery timeline remains uncertain.

Scrubb is also down with a shoulder issue. The 26-year-old landed on the IL on July 19 with a strain. Today’s transfer rules him out for sixty days from that date, so he’s looking at a mid-September return in a best case scenario. There’s no word on whether or not the team expects he’ll be able to pitch again this season.

Manager Dusty Baker provided reporters (including Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle and Mark Berman of FOX 26) with updates on a pair of different injured players. Star third baseman Alex Bregman still isn’t ready to return, and his allotted twenty-day rehab window has passed. League rules stipulate that position players not prepared to return after the conclusion of their rehab period must remain inactive for at least five days before reembarking on a minor league assignment, so Bregman can’t return to game action until Friday.

Starter José Urquidy, meanwhile, is scheduled to begin his own rehab assignment tomorrow. Baker said the club is hopeful he’ll be back on a big league mound by September 1. Urquidy has been out since June 30 with right shoulder discomfort.

AL West Injury Notes: Gurriel, Bregman, Urquidy, Pinder

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Yuli Gurriel was scratched from tonight’s Astros game with neck stiffness, according to Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle. Rome goes on to say that Gurriel was in “obvious discomfort” before speaking with the trainer. The 37-year-old is having his best season to date, with a slash of .324/.388/.490, producing a wRC+ of 145 and 3.0 fWAR. The extent of the injury is unclear at this point. But losing that level of production for any amount of time would be difficult to replace.

Help could be on the way, however, as Alex Bregman’s rehab is continuing tonight, according to Rome. There was some worry yesterday when he was pulled from a rehab game with hamstring tightness. But that seems to have been merely precautionary. Dusty Baker told Mark Berman of Fox 26 that they’re still hopeful he can return for their upcoming homestand, which runs from August 5th to 11th.

Other AL West notes…

  • Rome hears from Baker that Jose Urquidy is going to throw off a mound this week. Urquidy is currently mired in his second IL this year because of shoulder issues. When healthy, he’s been a solid member of Houston’s rotation, logging 77 1/3 innings with an ERA of 3.38. His strikeout rate is a bit low at 21.8%, but his walk rate is an excellent 4.3%. His most recent IL placement was in late June, meaning he will presumably need a few rehab starts to rebuild his workload after missing more than a month.
  • Chad Pinder was taking grounders on the field today, according to Matt Kawahara of The San Francisco Chronicle. A’s Manager Bob Melvin says that Pinder hasn’t yet run the bases but “sprinting feels close to 100 percent.” The utility man has been out since July 8th with a hamstring strain. Before that, he was having a disappointing season, with a slash of .216/.269/.358. He might struggle to find playing time when he returns, given the recent additions of Starling Marte and Josh Harrison to the Oakland lineup.

Astros Place Jose Urquidy On 10-Day Injured List

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11:07PM: Urquidy’s MRI revealed “the same results from the last time…some tightness with some inflammation,” the hurler told The Houston Chronicle’s Chandler Rome and other reporters.  This left Urquidy hopeful of another relatively short IL visit: “I think I’m going to be ready in not a long time.”

5:52PM: The Astros announced a set of roster moves today, including the placement of right-hander Jose Urquidy on the 10-day injured list due to right shoulder discomfort.  Left-hander Ryan Hartman’s contract was selected from Triple-A, with 40-man roster space cleared by a corresponding move of right-hander Francis Martes being designated for assignment.  In addition, Garrett Stubbs has been called up from Triple-A while catcher Martin Maldonado is going to the bereavement list.

The shoulder issue caused Urquidy to leave last night’s start after just 1 1/3 innings, leaving the Astros ill-prepared for an impromptu bullpen game, and the result was a 13-3 loss to the Orioles.  It was an unfortunate turn of events for Urquidy, who has quietly been one of baseball’s better pitchers over the last two months, with a 2.62 ERA over his nine starts and 55 innings prior to last night’s brief outing.

Urquidy missed two weeks in May due to a similar shoulder injury, though Astros manager Dusty Baker told reporters (including MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart) that this new bout of soreness was in a different area of Urquidy’s throwing shoulder.  Urquidy was scheduled to undergo an MRI today.

The Astros had been using a six-man rotation, so they might not need a replacement at all if they’re comfortable working their starters on regular rest.  If not, Cristian Javier was used as a starter earlier this season and could be stretched out again or perhaps used in a piggyback capacity with another pitcher.

Perhaps another alternative is Hartman, who has a 3.98 ERA, 28.8% strikeout rate, and 7.6% walk rate over nine starts and 40 2/3 innings at Triple-A Sugar Land this season.  A ninth-round pick for the Astros in the 2016 draft, Hartman posted some good numbers in his rise up Houston’s minor league ladder before struggling in his first exposure to Triple-A hitters in 2019.  The lefty has performed better this year at Triple-A, though his issues with the home run ball have persisted, as Hartman has allowed 35 homers in 156 1/3 total frames at Triple-A.

Martes had a 10.80 ERA over 8 1/3 innings at Sugar Land this season.  Martes was recently activated from the restricted list in the wake of his 162-game suspension for PED usage, issued in February 2020.  This was Martes’ second PED suspension, and he also underwent Tommy John surgery in August 2018.  Between the Astros’ minor league system and the Dominican Winter League, Martes has pitched only 21 2/3 innings since the start of the 2019 season.  Martes was a highly-regarded prospect before his injury and suspension issues, but it seems as if Houston is ready to move on from the 25-year-old.

AL Injury Notes: Robert, Lakins, Urquidy

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Luis Robert could be roughly four weeks out from a rehab assignment, per The Athletic’s James Fegan (via Twitter). Assuming all goes well for Robert — a significant assumption this far out — and the White Sox could hope to have their star centerfielder back in the lineup for the stretch run late in August. The club itself has not put an exact timetable on his return, however. Still, an update of any kind is a positive sign for the first-place Sox. If Robert avoids any hiccups in the next few weeks, the White Sox could be emboldened enough to stick with their current roster, rather than make a move to add another centerfielder before the deadline. In the meantime,Brian Goodwin has been the latest replacement to man center, joining Billy Hamilton and Adam Engel as fill-ins.

Elsewhere in the American League, there were a couple notable injuries in last night’s games to check in on…

  • The Astros/Orioles game saw a couple of pitchers leave early due to injury. Both starters, Jose Urquidy and Travis Lakins, left their respective outings in the second inning. The Orioles expect to have the results of an MRI on Lakins sometime today, per Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. Lakins was making his first start of the season.
  • As for Urquidy, he left with shoulder discomfort after 1 2/3 innings. For those wondering if this was a return of the shoulder discomfort that sidelined Urquidy for a couple weeks in May, that does not appear to be the case. The pain that forced Urquidy from Tuesday’s start was in a different area than his prior injury, per MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart. Urquidy has been a big part of the Astros’ strong first half, pitching to a 3.38 ERA/4.00 FIP across 14 starts while totaling 77 1/3 innings — more than five innings per outing.

Astros Injury Notes: Urquidy, Taylor, Gurriel, Alvarez, McCullers

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The Astros’ long list of injured pitchers will get a bit shorter today, as Jose Urquidy and Blake Taylor have both been activated from the 10-day injured list.  Urquidy will get the start in today’s game against the Red Sox.  Right-handers Andre Scrubb and Ralph Garza were optioned to Triple-A to make room for Urquidy and Taylor on the active roster.

Urquidy hit the IL on May 16 due to right shoulder discomfort, though that potentially ominous-sounding diagnosis wasn’t considered too serious.  The right-hander will indeed return in pretty short order, and he’ll look to continue what has thus far been a solid 2021 season.  Urquidy has a 3.22 ERA and a very strong 5.1% walk rate over 44 2/3 innings, though advanced metrics (such as a 4.58 SIERA) haven’t been as impressed with his work.  Urquidy has both a low strikeout rate (18.6%) and grounder rate (28.5%), and he has been relying on a lot of soft contact and some batted-ball luck (.242 BABIP) to retire batters.

Taylor has been out of action since suffering a right ankle sprain on April 17, and he has been on a Triple-A rehab assignment since last week.  Taylor made his MLB debut last season, and he has a 3.12 ERA, 18.4% strikeout rate, and 12.3% walk rate over 26 total innings in the big leagues.  With Kent Emanuel still on the IL, Brooks Raley has been the only other left-hander in Houston’s bullpen, so Taylor’s return will add some depth in that area.

The lineup will continue to be shorthanded, however, as manager Dusty Baker told reporters (including MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart and The Houston Chronicle’s Chandler Rome) that neither Yuli Gurriel or Yordan Alvarez are available for today’s game, though both are “close” to returning.  Alvarez appears to be the nearest of the two, though Baker said he “nixed” the idea of Alvarez in the lineup in order to give the young slugger another day of recovery.

This will make it five games missed for Alvarez due to a wrist problem, while Gurriel is now on track to miss his third game due to inflammation in his left middle finger.  Baker did say Gurriel would return at some point during Houston’s four-game series with the Red Sox that begins today.

“It’s a situation where they’re not hurt badly enough where you can put them on ten days and lose them, so you’d rather wait two or three days extra and not lose them for ten,” Baker said.

The Astros still scored 15 runs in the two games without Gurriel and Alvarez in the lineup, though naturally the team would like to have two of its best hitters back as soon as possible.  Both players have hit seven home runs this season, with Gurriel hitting .309/.380/.511 in 205 PA and Alvarez hitting .310/.343/.525 over 169 PA.

Baker also told McTaggart and company that he is hopeful Lance McCullers Jr. can be back in the rotation by the “middle of June.”  McCullers was placed on the 10-day IL on May 26 due to right shoulder soreness but, like Urquidy, the issue as thought to be pretty minor.  McCullers is playing catch in the outfield today, Baker said.  Over 51 2/3 innings this season, McCullers has a 2.96 ERA/4.02 SIERA, despite allowing a lot of hard contact.

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