Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and the Blue Jays agreed to a one-year, $7.9MM deal to avoid arbitration, though the Jays also had some interest in discussing a longer-term contract, Jon Heyman of The New York Post reports. However, Guerrero and his representatives at Magnus Sports preferred to wait until after the season before “exploring something significant.”
As a Super Two player, Guerrero still has three more years of arbitration eligibility, so he isn’t scheduled for free agency until after the 2025 season. Guerrero will be only 27 years old on Opening Day 2026, so it would be likely that Guerrero could command a decade-long (or more) free agent contract if he keeps up his current level of production.
The 2025-26 offseason is a long ways away, yet Guerrero may already seem like a pretty safe bet. Regarded as baseball’s best prospect prior to his 2019 debut, Guerrero posted good numbers in his first two big league seasons before exploding to 48 home runs and a .311/.401/.601 slash line over 698 plate appearances in 2021. This performance earned him a Silver Slugger, the AL Hank Aaron Award, an All-Star nod, and a second-place finish in AL MVP voting.
Guerrero hasn’t missed a beat in the early days of the 2022 season, hitting five more homers over his first 32 PA. As much negotiating leverage as Guerrero and his camp already has in contract talks, that leverage would only grow if Guerrero delivers another MVP-level season. Waiting until next winter to discuss a long-term extension also carries some risk of injury or a dropoff in performance, though Guerrero already has the financial security of this season’s $7.9MM, some type of arbitration raise for next year’s salary, his $3.9MM signing bonus as an amateur, and three seasons of minimum salaries.
In short, the only real question with a Guerrero extension might be how it would stack up against the largest contracts in baseball history. Going beyond the $300MM threshold seems a given, and considering Guerrero’s age, his agents can make a case that their client should top Mookie Betts’ 12-year, $365MM extension with the Dodgers as the biggest “new money” deal ever. (Mike Trout’s current extension with the Angels gave him only $360MM in additional guarantees, as Trout was already owed $66.5MM over the final two seasons of his previous contract.)
As a first-base only player, Guerrero is a bit more of a defensive question mark than Betts, Trout, Francisco Lindor, Fernando Tatis Jr., or other high-salaried players who play more premium defensive positions. However, Guerrero acquitted himself quite well at first base in 2021, posting +2 Defensive Runs Saved and +2.5 UZR/150 (though the Outs Above Average metric rated him a -3).
Bo Bichette’s status is another factor, as the young shortstop has also made himself a candidate for a very lucrative extension. Bichette recently said that his agents had some extension talks with the Jays but nothing really materialized, and like Guerrero, Bichette is also a free agent after 2025. Blue Jays president/CEO Mark Shapiro said that “during that time, it’s safe to say we will continue both formally and informally to explore extensions with” the two players, and that “it’s not like we are a small market where if it gets towards the end of the contract and we can’t extend them, we need to panic and trade them for prospects.” Jose Berrios, Kevin Gausman, and George Springer are the only players signed beyond the 2025 season, so Toronto does have long-term space available for inking one or both of Guerrero and Bichette.
Give him a blank check
First 400m player, coming up.
@tippin- I was thinking $450-500 million. Vladimir is the best player in the game now. I wouldn’t even pitch to him, he’s that good. The Blue Jays would be absolutely crazy to let him go anywhere!
I can’t wait to see what his best season statline will be..dude’s 23! Could totally see him putting up Bonds like numbers in his prime with a much higher average (and without the roids).
More than likely, this IS his prime. Very often players peak in their early/mid twenties. The assumption that the real peak won’t come until 27 is false. He looks like a HOF guy, but this likely is his peak.
Lol. I’d be willing to bet money you’re not only wrong, but spectacularly wrong on that one @Cosmo2
Cosmo decline does not hit its steep drop till about 30 for hitters, he can still get a lot better based on most aging curve data
He’s the best hitter in baseball right now. You think he’s getting drastically better. Highly unlikely.
Not saying he’ll decline anytime soon. His prime will probably last perhaps almost ten years but this is his prime. He’s unlikely to get noticeably better. Tons of players peak earlier than 28, especially the super dynamic types (Lindor, Harper, Dave Parker, Cesar Cedeno)
@Cosmo..kid’s 23 and hit 48 bombs last year..judging from history..kids who come up at 23 only get better..Now let’s look at this year..32abs, and it’s more of the same..except better..now I know it’s only 32abs..but there’s nothing that shows it was a fluke, some anomaly, or anything else..except the kid’s REALLY, REALLY good..and that’s not even mentioning that his dad was a mostly injury free Hall of Famer (despite bad knees from that turf) who played full seasons almost every year, and hit .300ish till he retired..Genes mater in this too..and mark my words..VG JR will be an all time great..
I definitely believe he will be an all time great when all is said and done. Or at least, I think it’s very likely. He keeps doing what he did last year a few more years, he’s in the HOF. I just dispute the idea that statistical improvement from age 23 to 28 is inevitable, especially when the player is already this good.
For peak early but still damn good after just look at A-Rod. 2 of his top 3 WAR seasons were at 20 and 23. I doubt Vlad will ever get 10 WAR in a season as being limited to 1B makes that very hard – you’d need a 200 OPS+ which can happen but is extremely hard.
The only issue with Vlad is he will eventually be a DH like big papi. So 325-370 over 10-12 seems like a good bet but 400+ is a bit Ludacris in my opinion even as a Jays fan
Unless Soto gets it first, although he’s pretty likely to got $500M
@Redsoxx_62..True story…
Vlad will not sign an extension with the Jays. He will leave as a free agent if not traded prior. You can screenshot this and call me out on it later.
not exactly a bold claim given how many players dont stick around with their teams but okay.
Wasn’t meant to be bold, just figured I might get flack for taking that stance
Provided the team offers him a record contract, and he has no reason to be upset with his surroundings (no sign of that), he’s not going to say no to security and comfort. He wants respect, and he wants to focus on winning, and above all that having a good time.
If the Jays don’t disrupt anything, he will be extended.
Baltimore or Pittsburgh?
Seriously though, look, the guy’s a premier talent. But the world will still spin without him. And the Jays have enough coin to replace at least a large part of his production.
The days of a fan base getting hung up on any one player are long gone, even the ones as much “loved” as Vladdy. Want to follow Vladdy all year long? Spend a buck and a half on mlb.tv and watch all of his at bats with the Charlotte Cockroaches. Growing up in New England, I was a HUGE fan of Al Kaline, just for the way he played and carried himself; but I only saw him on TV, what? about 3 times a year?
Fans want a winner. If the Red Sox had gone to the World Series last year, the Fenway Faithful would have asked “Mookie WHO???”. If taking Vlad’s huge number off the books makes the Jays able to be more competitive, let him go. If they get the trophy with Vlad, that’s OK. If they get it without him, that’s OK too.
Have to like your replay just for the Kaline comment. He was a wonderful player and a very nice person.
Years later, through complete chance. I had a chance to meet him. Completely unpretentious human being; only MLB-er I ever met like him is Terry Francona (who, after all is said and done, is just a nice guy). I was actually nervous shaking Kaline’s hand, but he really was a gentleman.
You have 0 idea what you’re talking about… he pick the Jays as an international free agent ( was free to choose any other team) plus the Jays have surround him with great players.
All things being equal he would have chosen the Angels. But the Angels didn’t have any international bonus money. Thanks to Dipoto wasting it on a Cuban 2B that never panned out
homegrown-you are correct. He’s Anaheim bound
Not Dominican super star going to Anaheim! Can tell you that!!! Plus Anaheim didn’t even retire his dad’s # ( I know Trout is wearing that Number) what I mean is Anaheim has not class for us ( Dominicans)
Very good chance he has one of the best seasons in MLB history and prices himself out of the Jays market.
Prices himself out of the Jays market?
Whose market is he “priced into” if he’s priced out of the Jays? I guess he’ll sign with the Mets then?
I can see Mets/Yankees/Sox, or Dodgers uniforms in his future. That’s about it.
@tippin- If Vlad signed with the Yankees I would definitely buy season tickets in the bleachers somewhere. That guy’s an absolute beast. From what I’ve seen of him I feel he will be even better than Dad, if he can stay healthy.
Not the dodgers with Freeman anchored at 1st.
@CJ99..I think he’ll be much better than his dad..not exaggerating when I say he’s got the potential to be top top 3-4 of all time..and I’ve never said that about another player in 40yrs of watching baseball.
@tippin- I agree with you. I really don’t see Vlady leaving Toronto. I think a $520 million dollar contract will happen, maybe for 13 years. He’s definitely worth it.
Wow. 13 years, 520 million. Some people live in a world totally different than the rest of us. There’s budgeting your grocery bill and there’s like, heck, I’m gonna buy an albino tiger.
Jays ownership is one of the richest. They have the ability to have the highest market, yet they won’t.
The smart business is always about putting money in to get more out. Just because you could spend along with the highest payrolls doesn’t mean you should. Some teams have learned that the hard way. Some teams have to build the fan base gradually to spend money just like they have to build player talent. Team doesn’t sell at an optimum level just because you signed a bigger check one day, just as it doesn’t start winning a lot more games all of a sudden. Things must build organically.
He is the best hitter in baseball.
By far. I could see him going off for a .350/50/140 season in the near future.
@tippin- yes either this year or next year. How do you get Vladdy out? Smh. I’d take Soto right after him. Trout’s 3rd for me now.
You walk him @CJ..that’s about it..quickest hands I’ve ever seen. Normally I’d say bust him in..but he’s a different animal.
They can reasonably afford to sign either Vlad or Bo long term but not both unless they spend like the Dodgers. Neither guy needs security so they’re not settling Acuna/Albies deals.
I would sign the cheaper player now(Bo) and start thinking about a new contract for(Vladdy) next year. I doubt he’s taking anything less than $40 million a year though.
I am thinking it’ll be like 13 years/$520M if they buy out his remaining arbitration years and extend him for 10 years at over $40M AAV. And he’d be worth it.
Surprised a trillionaire mindset would go so low. In the real world, teams tend to push the highest precedent of contract value by gradual increments, not eclipse it by that much.
He needs to lose some weight. Or else he’s going to have knees problems much like his dad playing on that turf in Montreal all those years.
Sr. may have had knee issues, but he still played full seasons every year except a couple..even with running around on that terrible turf..that projects very well for Jr’s long term health..
The turf in Montreal was the worst in MLB. I remember Vlad Sr playing for the Angels. He would have take a few minutes to resume after running in to make a play. He would go down to one knee . It was sad to see, But he still played great.
If I was Vlad, I might seriously look at something like a 5yr/200m deal now so I could really cash in right around my age 29/30 season. Especially the way prices are shooting through the roof.
That’s really not realistic for the Blue Jays or any any team for that matter. Blue Jays have control over him for another 3 years after this season in which he’d make at best 50 million. Meaning if Jays signed him to that deal they’re be paying 150 million for 2 free agent years.
He deserves a stake in ownership of the Blue Jays for what he is going to do for that franchise if he stays healthy.
Crazy thing is, you might be right! Lol
Just give him 600 over 20 years right
If he would get in the neighborhood of 70 next 3 arb years after this season, perhaps 11/350mil works for both. Massively wealthy thru age of 34 season to bypass open market. If still a relevant DH option at 35yo onward, good on him.
Why does this guy have only two walks in 30 ABs. I’m not a fan of intentional walks, but he is on pace for 40 walks. It feels like some managers aren’t paying him enough respect.
He could easily have a dozen walks by now. He has drastically expanded the pitches he’ll swing at compared to last year. It’s like he’s hell bent on breaking records when in reality he won’t see the pitches he wants until he lays off pitches 6 inches outside. It’s been embarrassing the last few games. Bichette is in the same boat only he has been for the majority of his career. If you continuously swing at balls why would pitchers throw you strikes? Answer is they won’t.
By 2026 toronto will gone back to back. After 2026 likely the team will need to rebuild.
Would be difficult for toronto to be competitive with large vladdy and bo contracts. But fans will love it. Problem is you still to pay for premium pitching. Unless you can do some creative accounting
Vlad will likely wait unless the offer is really good. His dad is rich. If some horrible ends his career, he will still be a wealthy man. I guess he goes for the monster payday in free agency.