7:25pm: Talks between the two sides have also involved Minnesota closer Taylor Rogers, report Kevin Acee and Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune (Twitter link). There are certainly more players than just Paddack and Rogers in discussions, but the clubs are evidently contemplating scenarios that could see either team land immediate big league help.
6:36pm: The Twins and Padres are working on a trade that would send right-hander Chris Paddack to Minnesota, reports Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic (Twitter link). San Diego has been kicking the tires on possible Paddack deals in recent days.
Paddack, 26, has spent the past three years in the San Diego rotation. The Padres acquired the Texas native from the Marlins in a 2016 trade that sent closer Fernando Rodney to South Florida. It quickly became apparent that was a heist for San Diego, as Paddack developed into one of the sport’s better pitching prospects not long after.
The Friars carried Paddack on their Opening Day roster in 2019. He looked like a mid-rotation arm in the making as a rookie, working 140 2/3 innings of 3.33 ERA ball. Paddack punched out a strong 26.9% of batters faced that year while only walking 5.5% of opponents. The 21.5 point gap between his strikeout and walk percentages checked in 17th among 130 hurlers with 100+ innings pitched.
Unfortunately, Paddack hasn’t built upon that success in the past two seasons. He pitched to a 4.73 ERA over 12 starts during the truncated 2020 schedule. That looked to be a possible small-sample blip, inflated by the fact that one in every four fly balls he allowed cleared the fences. Yet his ERA jumped again last year, checking in at 5.07 in 108 1/3 frames.
Paddack’s home run rate came back to earth, but he allowed nearly 40% of baserunners to score. That’s more a product of poor sequencing than anything else, and the Twins presumably believe he’ll more closely approximate his 76.4% strand rate of 2019-20 than last season’s mark moving forward. That said, one can’t approximate Paddack’s recent struggles entirely to home run and baserunner luck.
In each of the past two seasons, Paddack’s strikeout rate has dipped relative to the year prior. Last year’s 21.6% mark was a couple points below the league average, although his swinging strike rate has held steady in the 11% range. Perhaps even more concerning, he has allowed hard contact well above the league mark in each of the past two years. Paddack particularly struggled with right-handed batters last season, allowing same-handed opponents to put up a .325/.354/.547 line.
Those factors make him a difficult pitcher to value. He still sports excellent control, throws in the mid-90s, and owns an excellent changeup. Yet he’s also prone to a lot of hard contact and has seen his results go downhill over the past couple years. Moreover, he ended last season on the injured list due to inflammation in his throwing elbow. That hasn’t impacted him this spring, but it’s at least of moderate concern to any team considering acquiring him.
Paddack and the Padres agreed to a $2.25MM salary to avoid arbitration. He’ll be controllable via that process through 2024. There’s a case for the Padres to hold onto him in hopes of a bounceback, but it’s not clear there’s room for him in the rotation. Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish, Blake Snell, the recently-acquired Sean Manaea and Nick Martínez (whom they signed to a four-year deal this offseason) look like the season-opening starting five. Mike Clevinger will begin the year on the IL but will have a rotation spot whenever he returns. The Friars also have Ryan Weathers, one-time top prospect MacKenzie Gore and Reiss Knehr as depth options for any inevitable injury concerns.
Given that plethora of arms, the Friars have contemplated dealing from both their rotation depth. San Diego has reportedly been looking to upgrade in the corner outfield, but Rogers’ inclusion in talks with the Twins demonstrates the possibility for upgrades on other areas of the roster.
Rogers, 31, has emerged as one of the sport’s better late-inning arms. He posted an ERA between 2.61 and 3.07 in each season between 2017-19, tossing 55+ innings in all three years. The southpaw allowed a bit more than four runs per nine in the shortened 2020 season, but his underlying numbers remained excellent and he returned to form last year.
In 2021, the University of Kentucky product worked to a 3.35 mark over 40 1/3 innings. He punched out a career-high 35.5% of batters faced while walking only 4.8% of opponents, averaging a personal-best 95.5 MPH on his heater. Among relievers with 40+ frames, only Liam Hendriks, Josh Hader, Raisel Iglesias and Craig Kimbrel had a bigger strikeout/walk rate differential than Rogers’ 30.7 point gap.
With the Twins reeling towards a last-place finish, Rogers was a frequently-mentioned trade target leading up to the summer trade deadline. He sprained the middle finger on his pitching hand in late July, though, essentially killing any chance of a midseason deal. That proved a season-ending malady.
The Twins have been aggressive this offseason in an attempt to immediately bounce back. There’s not been much indication Rogers was available in trade this winter, yet he’s entering his final year of club control. He’ll play the 2022 campaign on a $7.3MM salary before hitting the open market, where he’s on track to be one of the top relievers available.
That dwindling window of control could increase Minnesota’ comfort parting with Rogers, particularly if the deal allows them to address a rotation that looks like the club’s weak point. The Twins have added Sonny Gray, Dylan Bundy and Chris Archer to join Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober in the starting five.
Both Bundy and Archer are coming off miserable 2021 seasons tarnished by injury. Twins president of baseball operations Derek Falvey has expressed confidence in the internal options, particularly with highly-regarded prospect Josh Winder on hand as the likely first call in the event of injury. Still, there’s enough uncertainty that adding to that group if the opportunity presented itself always seemed likely. There’s no guarantee a deal will get across the finish line, but the Twins pursuit of Paddack reflects they’re not averse to picking up another arm.
Heyman says it will be a three team trade sending Buxton to Texas too.
Lol yea sure
Heard its four teams, Semien going back to Toronto.
Make it 5 teams. My White Sox are getting the vending machine from Minnesota’s clubhouse.
It also involves the Lakers, sending Westbrook to Seattle as a backup catcher
Ken Rosenthal adds the ice cream machine given to Freeman was left behind in the clubhouse and will go to one of the teams above. TBA for who goes to the Braves.
Looks like the Greg Bird’s (also known as Yankees) will be trading Cole to the Brooklyn Nets for the ghost of James Harden
Include the A’s. Billy doesn’t want his guys paying for sodas.
The Dodgers are also involved sending their 2020 Tournament Trophy for future considerations of winning a real one.
Mic drop
Billy likes to drink soda and Miss Lippy’s car is green.
…why do they call them horse shoes? Are there any horse socks? Is anybody listening to me…?
Deal has been expanded to include LeBron to the Rams to play TE……Rams shipping out their 2024 and 2025 first rounders.
Bob Nightendale reporting it’s a 13 team trade deal between the: “padres, twins, rangers, toronto, white sox, lakers, mariners, braves, yankees 76ers, a’s, dodgers, rams” here’s the full trade:
Padres receive: RP Taylor Rodgers from MIN
Twins receive: SP Chris Paddack from SD and RP Joe Kelly from white sox
Blue Jays receive: SS Marcus Semien from Rangers
Rangers receive: RP Jordan Romano from Blue Jays
White Sox receive: vending machine from MIN
Lakers receive: 2024, 2025 1st round picks from LAR
Mariners receive: C Russel Wrestbrook from LA
Braves receive: LAD’s 2020 winners of 60-game season Trophy and cash
Yankees receive: James Harden from PHL, SP Frankie Montas from OAK
A’s receive: 4 Soda Machines fulled stocked from Yankees
Dodgers receive: Freddy Freeman’s ice cream machine due to a clause in his contract that without it he’ll receive a opt-out in 2 years without having it
Rams receive: QB LeBron James from Lakers
More to come…
UPDATE:
Astros, O’s, and Guardians, and Golden Knights have joined the trade, updated trade is this:
Padres receive: RP Taylor Rodgers from MIN
Twins receive: SP Chris Paddack from SD and RP Joe Kelly from white sox
Blue Jays receive: SS Marcus Semien from Rangers, Jose Ramirez from CLE
Rangers receive: RP Jordan Romano from Blue Jays
White Sox receive: vending machine from MIN
Lakers receive: 2024, 2025 1st round picks from LAR
Mariners receive: C Russel Wrestbrook from LA
Braves receive: LAD’s 2020 winners of 60-game season Trophy and cash
Yankees receive: James Harden from PHL, SP Frankie Montas from OAK
A’s receive: 4 Soda Machines fulled stocked from Yankees, Random trashcan from Astros
Dodgers receive: Freddy Freeman’s ice cream machine due to a clause in his contract that without it he’ll receive a opt-out in 2 years without having it
Rams receive: QB LeBron James from Lakers, Goalie Robin Lehner from Golden Knigts
O’s receive: SS Caros Correa from MIN
Golden Knights receive: 2026, 2027 1st round pick from LAR.
In addition to what you’ve so eloquently outlined above, this time Preller has clearly outdone himself. As the deal includes the RStarGM replacing Ted Cruz in Texas and Belichick is paired with Hope Solo as ptbnl compensation and are reassigned to the Vermont Lake Monsters where they slot in as lead singer/mock dancer for Alice Cooper.Tour 2022, Nightengale not only broke the story but also spills the beans on Boston, Cheers, which subsequently nixes the deal and cancels the seasons, spring, summer, fall, and winter, confounding echo-location in bats, triggering mass-nonlinear dynamics in all thing oval, thus reversing the planetary axis, which significantly increases odds of a non-sports related championship for the city of San Diego. ‘Bout time
UPDATE: Per Bob Nightingale the Astros will also be sending their trashcan to the A’s purely to pick up the trash scattered throughout Oakland Colessium. It’s an 8 team trade, first in MLB history.
They get old but Rangers 29 this had me knee slapping!
Can’t believe the Os are finally getting Correa
A 4th team sending Jose Ramirez to the Blue Jays is also in play.
Golden Knights are sending Lehner in the trade to the Orioles as well.
For what exactly? OF help for the padres?
Probably Kepler
Das Kepler!
Herr Kepler wird die Scheiße aus den Baseballs in San Diego schlagen!!!
Paddock for Correa
Are the Padres going to try and include Hosmer in this one too?
Obvi!
After this year, it’ll be much easier. His salary goes from $20M to $13M for the next three years. They’d still have to eat some salary or add capital to make it work, but at least it becomes feasible after 2022.
By the All Star break it would be an easier trade as he will have been paid 3 of 6 months pay for 2021 already.
2021 is already fully paid
He gets 10 and 5 rights though after this year so he can veto anything
Ok, now that’s an interesting point I hadn’t considered. Thanks for bringing that up.
@CNichols: True. But after sitting on the bench 3 days out of every 5 as a deep reserve, Hosmer might like the look of some low budget teams who could better use him as a starter. He’s sunk money, any way you look at it. Whether it cost the Padres $60M this year, $39M next year, or whatever, his roster spot will always be worth MORE than his salary. Ultimately, Preller can (and would) just DFA him. The reason that AJ is willing to toss money and prospects to get a deal down this year, disappears after this year. Why lose prospects and cash, when DFA’ing him cost nothing more than has already been spent?
The reason he isn’t DFA’d, is because he’s worth a lot more than zero. Some fans (and experts here) hate him, and wish that Preller would do whatever it takes to get rid of him. Hosmer’s worth more than zero, and the prospects’ upside (e.g. Hassell, Abrams, etc.) are worth more than Hosmer. Other team GM’s know that Preller and the Pads have a salary cap problem, and that moving Hosmer would solve some of that problem (e.g. about $14.5M, averaged). They want the Padres prospects, more than they want Hosmer, and see Preller’s problems as an opportunity to scalp a few blue chip prospects off the Padres stack. Ain’t gonna happen. The better the Pads top prospects, the tougher it is to make any deal, let alone a Hosmer salary dump. The GM’s want those guys so badly, they won’t deal with Preller on anyone else. It was the same when Tatis was coming up.
He’s getting paid wether he plays 1 day a week or 6.
Hosmer having 10 and 5 rights doesn’t matter
GM of the year strikes again! Smartest girl alive
Long ago in a distant land, I, Aku, the shapeshifting master of darkness, unleashed an unspeakable evil! But a foolish samurai warrior wielding a magic sword, stepped forth to oppose me…
*CLING*
*CLANG*
*SLASH*
Before the final blow was struck, I tore open a portal in time and flung him into the future, where my evil is law. Now the fool seeks to return to the past and undo the future that is Aku.
@OldSalt … So what has Preller got to show for the largest budget in Padres history? Hosmer? A depleted farm? Of course Hosmer’s worth more than zero, but all of these issues, including a top win total of 77 games in seven years is 100% on Preller.
ONE HUNDRED PERCENT.
A.J. Preller is an absolute fraud!!
No way in hell twins are taking on hosmers money!!
No one is going to take Hosmer.
Twins coming for Sox, hope we are ready.
LOL
Sox just need to have better injury luck. I expect steps forward from Cease, Kopech, and Vaughn. Sheets, too, if he isn’t traded. Like a number of White Sox fans, I’m not happy about what I feel is another offseason of missed opportunities and not really going all-in, but I do feel the Sox are still the class of the division. Despite all the injuries last year, they took it by 13 games. Twins were 20 games back. That’s a huge gap to make up.
@ hyraxwithaflamethrower;
They built a team on overweight, over-muscled, low Baseball-IQ players with little self-discipline and we’re supposed to talk about “injury luck”?
Within 2 years everyone that follows MLB will wonder what the hubbub about the White Sox was about – and White Sox fans will blame HOF’er Tony Larussa.
Overweight? Applies to Lynn, I guess, but not really anyone else. Maybe Abreu, but he’s 35 and a 1B. How fast are such guys expected to be?
Over-muscled? Now being strong is a bad thing? But even then, I disagree. Last year, the Sox ranked 7th in OPS, but only 19th in HRs. Meanwhile, they were 3rd in OBP and 5th in BA, so obviously, their approach is more about getting on base than hitting HRs. Seems downright disciplined. I’ll grant that they have too many 1B/DH types in Vaughn, Abreu, Eloy, Sheets, and Burger, but the latter two might well be traded or sent to the minors and Vaughn is the 1B when Abreu retires.
They also had baseball’s 5th best ERA and WHIP, so it’s not even a team predicated on offense.
There’s a lot to criticize them for: the terrible Madrigal for Kimbrel trade, focusing on their BP instead of getting a superstar in RF or 2B, not getting a high-end starter like Ray to replace Rodon, and more, but your trolling strongly suggests that you don’t actually know anything about the team beyond “Eloy is pretty big.”
I’m not trolling……
Most of the Sox position players are burley. They throw the ball around the field on D. They don’t know how to win toss-up games by playing solid D, running the bases smartly, and manufacturing runs.
You telling me that Elroy, Grandal, Vaughn, Robert, Mercedes, and others are physical specimens? Their injuries are “bad luck”? Currently they’ve got Moncada and Anderson disabled, and they just traded for Pollock – another guy that keep getting hurt. And don’t get me started on some of the Pitchers.
That’s not trolling. Ignoring it is denial.
Am sorry, but KC, Cleveland, and Detroit are coming out of rebuilds. They’re all good organizations that expect their players to perform fundamentals and play team ball. They will be better in 2022, and continue to be better for years. The Sox are at their revenue/payroll limit and as one poster put it: their minor leagues have been “stripped mined”. Do you really think Josh Harrison can play 2B all year?
A sure sign that someone is trolling, is a post that begins with, “I’m not trolling…”.
Every single time. Bet on it.
White Sox fans have ‘Yankee Fans Disease’.
Anderson isn’t injured. He’s suspended for the beginning of the season. Unless I missed something else recently.
How’s he trolling? He’s explaining his reasoning and he’s not using lame insults. I like the talent on the white sox. Luis robert looks like a star to me. But if the white sox dont fix that defense theyll never win squat. Eloy jimenez looks like jd martinez was his defensive coach in left field
@ jdgoat;
ESPN shows him as disabled.
But I guess a suspension is fine.
LOL
Some of your posts are just hilarious.
P.S. One request – In the future when you see I’m in trouble……Please DON’T try to help me.
P.S.S. Do you do PR for professional politicians? Work in the news media?
And Vaughn will be a free agent when Abreu retires.
Yep. It’s like someone who starts a conversation like this:
“I’m not a racist or anything, but…..”
Well, yes, yes you are.
@Samuel In your posts, you seem overly preoccupied with where the poster whom you’re responding to is employed…I mean, is it ever relevant?
2 things to know about Samuel, he’s a clown that pulls stuff out of his butt, and is obsessed with taking down other teams, like his unhealthy obsession with the White Sox even though this is a thread about the Twins and Padres. What happens when you don’t have a significant other, pet or hobbies.
They’re an interesting team that’s for sure. Falvey & Levine kind of snookered Brian Cashman. They’re done a lot of good things this winter. If the Twins can get enough SP they’ll hound the sox all summer.
Gotta like that lineup. Should be a good ‘pen. Although losing Rogers would hurt that. He’s pretty good. Not sure what the thinking is there.
The White Sox certainly have their own issues to deal with. That being said, the Twins are in a even more precarious position when it comes to their starting pitching. All of the Central is on the upswing. Honestly the Twins are trying to save face instead of rebuilding. They’ve certainly got some intriguing pieces. Detroit was definitely looking improved from the 2nd half on last season. I don’t think you would favor any of them over the White Sox ultimately. But the gap is certainly closing.
White Sox??? Issues??? Like What??? 2B doesn’t count. We will address that at the deadline. Solid everywhere else! Pollock upgrades outfield. Adam Engel backs up all 3 OF slots. Gold Glove level defender! The Lance Lynn knee thing is a blessing. Lance was worn down at the end of last year. We will ease him in and have a “fresh” Lance Lynn ready for the playoffs. We are set!
Remove those rose colored glasses. Did you just start rooting for the White Sox? Did you just start watching baseball? The White Sox have loads of Potential. Great. There’s an absolute laundry list of things I could go over. Some of you White Sox fans are just blatantly unrealistic. Every team has issues! The White Sox are no exception!
You still failed to mention what major issue the White Sox have? We will address 2B at the trade deadline. Otherwise …. Right now … We Are Set!
I hope you’re right, but historically speaking, not likely. Your unfailing optimism reminds me of a child. Cute, but not based in reality. The possibility of regression remains an ever present danger. The White Sox have yet to get a full healthy season out of Eloy, or Robert for example. There’s a litany of examples of players never reaching their potential. They’re both still very young, and have yet to have a season that warrants penciling in some of the expectations that many are just assuming. Moncada has had one really good season. Otherwise he’s mostly failed to live up to the lofty standards expected of him. Pollock was a godsend in that we could be rid of Kimbrel’s contract, but Pollock has a history of injuries that reads like a laundry list. Engel has also had his fair share of problems staying healthy of late. Leury is hurt pretty much every season. Harrison is a crapshoot. Grandal isn’t getting any younger. Abreu is a likely regression candidate who is also no spring chicken. Then there’s the thin Starting pitching. Kuechel is unreliable to put it nicely. Plus the fact that they really don’t want him to be relied on in that if he reaches 160 innings his albatross of an option vests. Kopech has never even remotely pitched a Major League starters workload. The brass has already said they’d be monitoring his innings anyhow. So how much can he be relied upon? Cease is still pretty early into his career, and should be coming into his prime, but he’s also had TJ surgery twice, and there’s always the possibility of regression. Cueto was a good pickup for what was remaining, and can hopefully fill some desperately needed innings. But he’s certainly not in his prime. Lynn? Giolito? Let’s hope they continue to pitch at the level they’ve been pitching…
Look, they have a good team. But to expect everyone to be at peak is delusional. They’re most likely deep enough to win the division handily. World Series though? I guess time will tell.
Twins coming for the Sox??? With Chris Paddack???? Chris Paddack is yet another “gift” to the White Sox and the rest of the A.L. Central from Minnesota. Sonny Gray, Dylan Bundy, Chris Paddack and Chris Archer …. That is 4/5 of Minnesota’s starting pitching rotation …. You tell me who’s not trying to get at-bats against these guys???? And they are dangling their closer to get Paddack.??? LMAO. Ngl …. The Astro’s have easily knocked the White Sox out of the playoffs past two years. Now the Twins come in and sign Correa away from Houston, and pair him with Gray, Bundy, Paddack and Archer in the rotation. The gifts keep on coming ….
Without Preller this site would be pretty dull
Dipoto has been slacking the past couple of seasons, somebody had to step up.
He has built a helluva team and farm. In part thanks to Preller
Lets see the mariners make the playoffs for the 2nd time this century before you crown them. They were the luckiest team in baseball last year. 90 wins but a -41 run differential i believe?
Wow did not know that!
You Astros fans can’t help yourselves! Just won’t stop with the run differential and luck. You people sound scared! Like in the back of your mind you think this could be the end of your division dominance but your trying to convince yourself that it isn’t. So transparent! Feel for ya!
Could Minnesota afford the hosmer deal? Kepler for paddock and hosmer? Just spitballing but that’s somewhat similar to the reported deal with the mutts
Kepler and Gordon
I think that significantly overvalues Paddack. Hosmer is $59M of dead money. Paddack isn’t worth that plus giving up Kepler.
If Hosmer is coming with Paddock, then either SD is getting a much worse return than Kepler, or the Padres are sending a good prospect to MN as well
And/or some cash. Cash makes every trade go smoother.
Would not be surprised to see it be Hosmer, half his contract money, Paddack, and Campusano as the return.
I don’t like it, I’d rather just cut Hosmer already, but I also don’t pay the bills so…
Padres were willing to eat 34m sending hosmer to the Mets with paddack. No way they eat 30 sending paddack and campusano. Don’t think hosmer is being dealt if this deal goes through.
Sorry but Kepler for paddock and Hosmer? The Twins wouldn’t trade Kepler for Paddock, let alone take on Hosmer. The twins aren’t taking on Hosmers contract unless SD throw in Tatis and yes I understand that’s won’t happen in a million years, which tells how likely it is the Twins take Hosmer.
That would be very interesting considering the Padres do not currently employ anyone named Paddock.
Padres are trying to pawn Paddack/Hosmer to every club. Nobody is going to give up something of value for that pairing.
Unless they add Gore and a catching prospect, maybe eat a little of Hosmer salary…might net them Rogers, Larnach and a lottery ticket arm.
No chance they add Gore. They are still high on him (as they should be). Other teams fans are trying to play the ‘but he’s had down years’ narrative to undervalue him, but the Padres don’t see it that way. I think it’s more likely it’d be a prospect in the 10-15 range of their system, dependent on how much money SD chips in with the Hosmer contract.
3 team trade:
Twins get Paddack
Padres get Dom Smith
Mets get Hosmer and some garbage twins prospect
And the Mets would do this because…?
GIve him a break. He’s from Arkansas.
Cano to Padres if 3 Team.
@mgomrjsurf: Dumbest comment on the thread! No way SD takes on that albatross of a contract, when they’re trying to shed Hos and Wil!
What are you guys on with Hosmer to the Mets???? It’s not happening genius.
They think he’ll be injured soon…..
It’d be great to see him get back on track with the Twins. Hope we get something more than just system depth…
Who closes for the Twins if they deal Rogers?
I know they were grooming Alcala last year for the role. He has developed a good change to contrast with his heater. However, the spring that Jhoan Duran just had was absolutely flawless and very impressive, and nobody is talking about it. Many of his K’s this spring were on three pitches (including a perfect inning). 100MPH heaters and a backup slinker, or whatever his pitch is called, doesn’t come around often. Perhaps coming off arm problems in 2021, the move to the pen is to build innings, but just maybe Duran will be nursed into the closers role as a rookie like Wainright at the start of his career..
Or, would a 32-yo Duffey automatically get the job? I tend to think not. To me, Duffey is more useful in clutch situations in the 6th, 7th, and 8th, and not someone to invest in a closer role, who would then be lost for bigger dollars at the end of the year.
My guess at the chances of closing::
Alcala 60% chance
Duran 20% (highest potential upside/biggest risk)
Duffey 20% chance
What do Twins fans think?
Hosmer for Paddack? Cash going to padres
Get it done Padres
Twins are weird. Makes no sense as to why they traded Berrios now if they planned on going for it in 2022…
They’ve been going in circles for years. You don’t see that?
A poor FO, the owner lost patience and started intervening.
You have to admit the haul for Berrios was really good. Also the front office just has issues paying big money and big years for pitching.
They traded Berrios for their current top prospect, Austin Martin. They then acquired an older but similar pitcher in Sonny Gray for a less heralded prospect (Chase Petty).
The Twins front office doesn’t believe in long-term deals for most starting pitchers. They get Gray for two years instead of risking $20M a year over 7 years for Berrios.
Berrios is more durable and better, but the Twins upgraded from Chase Petty to Austin Martin and Simeon Woods Richardson. And now they seem likely to land Paddack for probably two middling prospects.
I don’t see it being Kepler at all. Paddack’s value isn’t what it was two years ago. MAYBE Trevor Larnach is involved, but even that seems a bit rich for someone with Paddack’s track record the past two seasons. We’ll see though!
I don’t know why the Padres would trade Paddack for 2 middling prospects when they’re in win now mode. I’m sure it’s something to help the team now.
Because the Padres have 7 or 8 major league ready SP on their roster and Paddack isn’t good. Some seem to think this is the Paddack of 3 years ago. He’s a 4.50 ERA or worse guy now.
Earlier today on this site there was an article about the Astros extending Ryan Pressly. He’d been gotten in trade from the Twins in July, 2018 for Jorge Alcalá and Gilberto Celestino.
3-4 years ago I read that the Twins were overflowing with SS prospects in their minor leagues. This off-season they signed Carlos Correa to a ridiculous contract that lets him opt out at the end of the year – but if he suffers a major injury the Twins are on the hook to him for 2 additional years.
WHEN does tomorrow come? WHEN are people held responsible?
That Carlos Correa contract isn’t a bad one—no matter how hard you push that narrative.
Why don’t you start giving the Tigers flack for that Javy Baez deal?
He’ll be around 2 years or 5 if he stinks it up and strikes out 40% of the time. But they’re a “good organization”
How is a one year deal for Correa a “ridiculous contract”? Their only top SS prospect is Royce Lewis, who until this week, hadn’t played in a professional regular season game since 2019 due to injuries.
Depends on who you talk to.
@Samuel – That’s why you can never count on building your future team or even individual positions off of prospects. There is rarely such a thing as a can’t miss prospect. There have been a few (Bryce Harper, Steven Strausburg, etc.) but those are offset by the Micky Moniak’s of the world. Until a player proves he can handle MLB pitching or MLB hitters, they are merely lottery tickets. This is why the best teams in the league aren’t afraid to trade top prospects or younger players for known quantities. Tampa and possibly Cleveland are the only two teams who have shown sustained success by trading veterans or arbitration eligible players to open up spots for prospects, but despite their success, neither have won a World Series using this method. Take Boston for example. They drafted the top ranked player after 2020 in Marcelo Mayer and their #1 pick from the year before (Nick Yorke) is tearing up minor League pitching. Both are highly ranked middle infielders but instead of piecing 2nd base or SS together until one or both are ready, they signed Trevor Story to 6 year deal and they are trying to get both Boegarts and Devers locked up with long term contracts as well. It will be a great problem to have should Yorke and/or Mayers fulfill their promise and become MLB stars. Other teams seem to wait for their prospects and then disappointment hits when one or more don’t live up to their hype.
@ Dorothy_Mantooth;
That’s an interesting theory.
My perception is that every organization that built a sustainable contender (for at least 4-5 years) did it by developing a core of young prospects. The Yankees of Bernie Williams, Jeter, Mariano, Pettitte, Pasada, etc. The Royals that went to 2 consecutive WS’s – Gordon, Salvy, Cain, Moose, Hosmer, the 3 deep back of the bullpen. Recently with the Astros. The Friedman Dodgers. The Braves that won last years WS. The Brewers. Rays.
In fact, I can’t think of a franchise that tried piecing together a contender that got to the LCS and WS multiple times by spending money on long-term contracts – the Yankees of the past 12 years are the most notable example.
Due to penalties for going over the “luxury tax” – i.e. a thinly disguised salary cap – franchises know that they have to develop players they can control for multiple years as a part of a core.
Even todays Cardinals that accelerated their progress by taking on and/or extending expensive contracts of Goldschmidt and Arenado developed their core from prospects Yadi, Wainwright, Flaherty, DeJong, O’Neill, Bader, Carlson, Wong / Edman, etc…..and they haven’t won anything yet. The Blue Jays core is home grown prospects (although I believe they are falling into the trap Epstein’s Cubs – WS winning with home grown prospects – fell into of overspending for veterans once the core was up).
From what I’ve seen few teams are willing to trade their top prospects. One exception is the Padres, that keep doing that as their prospects were so ridiculously overrated. Last year they had a top 5 payroll (depending on what public site one looks at) and missed the playoffs again. Other teams have used the prospects they got from them to be a part of a contender by developing them when the Padres couldn’t, but I can’t think of one of those players that has become a star.
The commonality I find is that it’s the organizations that can both develop some of their prospects and then both recalibrate them when they fall out of sync as well as take on inexpensive veterans that have hit a wall and rework them, are the ones succeeding in today’s MLB.
As for the Red Sox – I like Chaim a lot. He inherited a lot of good prospects and his staff is working with them. Notably – and not publicized – is the work they’ve done developing the young pitchers they inherited. As for signing Story and attempting to extend Devers – that’s understandable. I very much doubt they’ll try to extend Boegarts – he’s already signed for a few more years. Boras will try to get him even more money – he may well have another Conforto situation if Boegarts opts out. Do you really think they signed Story for 6 years to play 2B (or that he signed expecting to)?
The Mets will find what the Twins, Reds, and others have – that without a solid young core spending doesn’t work. A team has to develop their prospects. Period.
Chaim did not inherit a lot of prospects. Nobody is talking about that because it isn’t true.
Come ON! Tanner Houck? That’s the one your guy, DD left him. It’s not that your analysis is wrong. You definitely do need to develop a core but you do this thing where you throw non factual statements in there. Not sure why.
He picked up Pivetta & Whitlock himself. Chaim inherited a BAD system from DD.
But Bloom has done an excellent job with what he was given to work with.
Seabold, who FG has ranked as the 2nd best pitcher in their system currently is another bloom acquisition. Whitlock, Pivetta, and Seabold were all on him. Jay Groome looked good in his move up to AA and he has him throwing strikes
I don’t know what credit the last regime deserves in any of this. It was a very thin system that Bloom has been growing. He’s done very well w a short deck of cards. You saw him adding more to the system w the Renfroe deal too. As an orioles fan, I’m sure he’s going to make it really hard to get back into this with the kind of LT moves he makes.
I’d be much happier if DD was still running the show and wheeling and dealing guys away for ML talent. A sustainable talent pipeline in Boston is a scary proposition for the other ALE squads.
A one-year deal of that size for Correa is absolutely ridiculous when you pair it with a starting rotation that includes Sonny Gray, who showed clear signs of decline last year, as your ace. Dylan Bundy, who is no better than a #5 starter. Chris Paddack, who isn’t good enough to be in the rotation of better than half of the teams in baseball. Chris Archer, who may well not be good enough to be in the rotation for ANY other team in baseball.
Twins need Kepler to play CF once Buxton goes down.
They traded Berrios for an Aston Martin? Guess a Jaquar is not their jam?
Well, #1, Berrios had said for a min of two years that he was going to test free agency and was not going to sign with the Twins #2 See #1
Yeah. He obvs didn’t want to be here (MN.) Best get him out with a good return.
Because they got a haul for him and they probably weren’t going to resign him.
Paddack has 3 yrs of control but hasn’t been good since 2019
Who cares if he hasn’t been good?
This is all about convincing Twins fans that: “They’re trying to win”.
Preller is tirelessly peddling this package containing two lemons. How any team would want either of them is beyond me. The Pads are trying to get rid of these guys for very obvious reasons. I’m no Twins fan, but why willingly take on someone else’s problems?
When someone else’s problems is better than the guys you have. Paddack’s 3.78 FIP in 2021 was better than the FIP of any of the guys the Twins have penciled in as a starter. Over the past 3 seasons only Gray has been better.
Think about that.
Paddack would instantly become the Twin’s #1 or #2 SP, and that’s not intended as a compliment to Chris.
FIP is a flawed stat. Especially in this context.
I wasn’t considering FIP
I was addressing PadsFans.
Sounds fishy…
That would be Haddock.
Best response of the week
agreed
Is Pollock in the deal too?
Twins pulled Larnich from the AAA game today so he might be involved.
Larnach was drafted in the 40th round by Preller in 2015, but chose to go to college instead. .
Oh well if Preller has a crush then it’s a given he’s targeted
3.78 FIP last year. Dude just needs a reset. How many dozens of coaches have the Padres gone through the last 3 years?
Exactly. If nothing else he has stayed pretty healthy for the world of starting pitching. He seems like the perfect candidate to let the new coaching staff work with or even start him in AAA this year. Instead they are just going to ship out another mid 20’s aged starter with 3 years of control left..
wow I posted about a week or two ago on here that this would be a very twins move and one I expected them to make.
Paddack for Taylor Rogers is my guess.
Looks like you are correct.
Who will close for the Twins then?
Duran probably but that is a little too much to expect him to handle so soon. I hope Rogers isn’t involved or we get something more significant than Paddock in return. It will be interesting to see what the deal is to say the least.
Seems like the Twins keep snagging players that the Sox have reported interest in.
Hosmer + $21 million, Paddack, and mid-level prospect like Howell for Sano who is owed $12 million guaranteed???
How in the world is Chris Paddock generating this type of interest? He’s not good lol
4.21 ERA/4.10 FIP means he is above average. In other words, good.
Lol way to include his season from 3 years ago. His ERA in 2020 was 4.73 and his ERA last season was 5.07. He’s not good.
Paddack’s FIP was 3.78 last season. 2nd best on the Padres and better than any starter on the Twins. He is good. Not an Ace, just good.
What? I’ve got to check those numbers. And really, using FIP is just a way to make Paddack look better than he is.
Used car salesmen sell lemons every day.
No idea how a player that doesn’t exist is generating this kind of interest!
Taylor Rogers?!?!?
I realize that the Twins don’t like to pay pitchers, but, really, Taylor?
Twins must be after an extra catcher, too.
Nobody wants Eric Hosmer can it please stop? I said it before so I’ll echo it, Paddack isn’t a good enough pitcher to warrant taking on Hosmer’s salary if he was the Mets would have jumped all over it and if the Mets didn’t do it then no one will.
The math is pretty simple. Paddack sucks. Hosmer sucks and he makes way too much for too long (even at $13M/yr for 4 years). Any team taking both of them on are saddled with negative equity regardless of who or what goes back to SD.
Math must not be your strong suit.
Paddack has been better than MLB average as a starter in his career. Above average means that by definition you don’t suck. His 3.78 FIP was better than the FIP put up by any of the starters currently on the Twins that had more than a handful of games played in 2021.
Hosmer doesn’t suck. He is just overpaid. He has an above average OPS+
He’s a first baseman who sucks at defense and should probably only DH at this point. A 100 wRC+ player whose a defensive black hole like that sucks
@PadsFans … Usually, I agree with your takes. But you are so far off base on Paddack. Better than average? And you have to use a stat that isn’t designed to be comparative to make that point? You’re better than that.
If you disagree with know it all Pads Fans he throws a tantrum and mutes you we are used to it.
Trading Rogers for Paddock would be really really stupid and a massive steal for the Padres
Trading a starting pitcher for a 31 year old middle reliever is a steal for the Padres?
Rogers is an elite setup man/closer. Multiple all star games. Paddock is a former top prospect who hasn’t panned out yet and has no place in the Padres rotation so yeah…
He is not elite and is a one-time all star.
4.21 ERA/4.10 FIP with a 3.78 FIP in 2021 which points to better results in 2022. In his career Paddack has been an above average starter. Eno Sarris has said that Paddack is one of the 3 pitchers most likely to have a breakout season in 2022. That makes him more valuable than a middle reliever who has just 60 appearances in 2 seasons.
Rogers has an FIP 2.13-2.85 each of the past 4 years. How is this not elite? 13.2 K/9 last year
@Pads Fans – Dude those were his stats from 2019 not 2021. Are you just messing with people or do not you know how to read stats?
Those were his stats, PERIOD. He had a 3.78 FIP in 2021 which was 2nd best on the Padres and better than ANY starter with more than a handful of games who will pitch for the Twins this season.
Do you not understand stats at all?
Paddack had a 5.07 ERA in 2021. His career ERA is 4.21, almost solely due to a strong first half in his rookie season. He’s been going downhill hard since then.
Oh get out of here you Padres fan. Stop cherry picking stats! His ERA in 2021 was over 5, in 2020 is was almost 5. He had one good season. A starter with two pitches is destined to become a relief pitcher or get yanked after 4 innings. You Padres fans should keep quiet–you just robbed the Twins.
Yes, I understand “stats.” That’s exactly why I’m calling you out for using FIP to try and make your case. And yes, I am a die-hard Padres fan.
Paddack has youth on his side. He’s already proven he can get MLB batters out at a better than average rate. He ran into some bad luck last season but he sure feels like a change of scenery guy. Look what happened when Philly traded Pivetta to Boston. Paddack has more upside than Pivetta too. Minnesota is smart to take a chance on him, they just can’t overpay for him in prospects or players.
“Better than average rate?” Compared to who? JuCo pitchers from South Dakota? Look at his real stats!
Average, below average, above average, our subjective opinions don’t matter much really. We’ll find out see what amount of value Paddack has to GMs if he’s traded.
I’m not talking about his “perceived” value, which is highly fluid and subjective. I was addressing his actual stats and performance.
Trevor Larnach was pulled from his Minor League game…..Pads definitely need a leftfielder.
Coincidence?
Preller drafted Larnach in the 40th and last round in his first season with the Padres. Larnach chose to go to college instead which turned out to be the right move since he ended up going in the 1st round to the Twins 3 years later.
If he’s part of discussions or Kepler is it makes sense to pull him as a precaution
Paddack still has a good fastball and an even better change up.It’s the 3rd pitch (curveball) he’s been struggling to get up to par.
I’ve always considered his best spot to be late inning reliever if he keeps having “trouble with the Curve”.
Let’s make it a blockbuster…Gordon, Rogers and Sano for Paddack, Campusano, Hosmer and $25 mil…then SD signs Conforto to 1/$15 mil with mutual option for 2023. Thoughts?
No to Campusano being included in any trades. Nola is too injury prone and Alfaro is a backup only.
@PadsFan: True, but we could draft Andrew Susac from Arizona with our 1st Round pick?!
Sarcasm. Nice!
@PadreB2011 “Thoughts?”
Drink less? It affects judgement.
@OldSalt: It was just an idea…didn’t say it was happening! Ya don’t have to be such a “Biden”!
@PadreB2011
OMG, that was a classic. I don’t think I’ve been disssed so badly since … junior high, and that was many decades ago.
You asked for my thoughts, and honestly, that was the first thing that popped into my mind.
@OldSalt: Yes Jr High was decades ago! Who might your team be?
no ,,Conforto,Hosmer nobody wants him if you trade Hosmer you have to pay with prospects, then you fired,Preller.
Twins are swapping the inclusion of Larnach for Gordon
and also including Gary Sanchez but are getting back Wil Myers PLUS
ADDITIONAL financial and player considerations.
Rooker,or Larnach or kirilloff for Paddak,+ Kepler is to expensive for the Padres.
Kirlioff would never happen and Rooker is borderline worthless
Hearing wil myers to the twins as well.
With the contract, Myers has negative Twins value. That won’t help the Padres get more
That will enable Preller to replace his contract with another albatross in Conforto. Then Preller can try desperately to peddle Conforto two years from now, but hey, that’s a tomorrow problem.
Where did you read that Myers is involved? The Pads need OFs. Truth is there’s not much yet to this rumor other than one writer’s tweet that the teams are talking. I could see the Pads keeping Paddack as a 6th starter/piggyback long reliever going in to a very busy April with SPs not yet fully stretched out.
Preller is the best sell low GM in the game. Watch him work.
Please, Minnesota, don’t make this trade!
Paddack who is a two pitch pitcher could be an elite closer in his own right but obviously there is more value in a starter. They should get a nice haul for him other than Rogers
Did you hear about the boy who ate 6 horses? Doctors listed him as being in stable condition!
Not bad
at least the parties are trying. you got to give them that
Twins need pitching. Why would they trade away one of their only solid arms for a #5 starter. Something isn’t adding up
Paddack will be the Twins #2, not #5!
I understand he would be the *twins* #2, but that’s my point: Twins don’t have pitching. Rotation AND pen are weak. He’s nowhere near a #2 on most teams.
I can’t comprehend shipping off one of your few proven arms for a guy with a high ERA, declining k/9 ratios, increasing WHIP… hes a #5 type pitcher.
Maybe the Twins won’t do that. We can speculate all we want but so far this rumor has no legs. The Twins’ rotation isn’t looking good though, moving into OD, and it’s probably too late to save it.
I doubt it. He wasn’t that good in the National League without the DH. I think he’s more like a #6 starter on the Twins.
I’m not sure Paddack is even a #5 starter. I think rotating the hot hand from AAA would be better than Archer and Paddack, and maybe even Bundy. I like Ober and Ryan but they have limited experience.
It should have read that “for a time, Rodney for Paddack appeared to be a heist by the Padres.” That time has clearly passed, Paddack is now rather rather pedestrian.
Still a heist
Good lord just trade him already. Never seen such a mediocre pitcher with this many headlines.
Who closes for the Twins if they deal Rogers?
I know they were grooming Alcala last year for the role. He has developed a good change to contrast with his heater. However, the spring that Jhoan Duran just had was absolutely flawless and very impressive, and nobody is talking about it. Many of his K’s this spring were on three pitches (including a perfect inning). 100MPH heaters and a backup slinker, or whatever his pitch is called, doesn’t come around often. Perhaps coming off arm problems in 2021, the move to the pen is to build innings, but just maybe Duran will be nursed into the closers role as a rookie like Wainright at the start of his career..
Or, would a 32-yo Duffey automatically get the job? I tend to think not. To me, Duffey is more useful in clutch situations in the 6th, 7th, and 8th, and not someone to invest in a closer role, who would then be lost for bigger dollars at the end of the year.
My guess at the chances of closing::
Alcala 60% chance
Duran 20% (highest potential upside/biggest risk)
Duffey 20% chance
What do Twins fans think?
If Twins are expecting to contend, I don’t think they hand the ball in the 9th to someone who hasn’t been in the role before. Duran is a rookie coming off an injury. Alcala has velocity, but he is inexperienced too and struggles to throw strikes. Duffey has been there before, and he seems to have the intestinal fortitude for the role. I think he’s a better setup guy, but of the three choices I think a contending team goes with the veteran to close.
Yeah, I was thinking Duffey also. I can’t imagine Alcala or Duran in that role….not yet anyway. Maybe the Twins think Danny Coulombe or even Caleb Theilbar can do it?
Let’s not trade any of the good bullpen one year guys until we’ve failed to compete at the deadline please.
WHAT?!!! Rogers is worth Pagan and Paddock and more and the Twins had to add in Rooker? What a huge ripoff! I guess Duffey is the new closer, although I think he’s a better setup man. Alcala and Duran are going to have to be lights out. I’ve about had it with the FO..