The Pirates placed third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes on the 10-day injured list yesterday, retroactive to August 13. Hayes has missed the Bucs’ last four games due to a middle-back muscle strain, and he’ll now get a few more days to recuperate while the Pirates can play with a full roster. Kevin Padlo (recently claimed off waivers from the Mariners) was called up from Triple-A to take Hayes’ spot on the open roster.
Now in his third MLB season, Hayes has yet to fully live up to his top-prospect billing, at least at the plate. The 25-year-old is making plenty of hard contact, but it has translated to only a .251/.323/.358 slash line and six home runs over 434 plate appearances this season. After exploding onto the scene with a 1.124 OPS in 95 PA in his 2020 rookie campaign, Hayes has only a .685 OPS in 830 subsequent PA in the majors.
On the plus side, Hayes has already established himself as an elite defensive player. Hayes leads all players in the majors in Defensive Runs Saved (+16) and only four players have more Outs Above Average than Hayes’ +12 total. While Nolan Arenado is also up near the top of both lists, Hayes certainly looks like at least a finalist for this year’s NL Gold Glove at third base.
It doesn’t appear as though Hayes’ injury is too serious, so the Pirates can only hope he can return to action in short order and continue to garner more experience. A cornerstone piece of Pittsburgh’s rebuild, Hayes signed an eight-year, $70MM extension in April that stands as the largest contract in Pirates history.
Mitch Keller is another younger player the Bucs had tabbed as a key part of the future, and like Hayes, Keller’s early returns in his MLB career have been mixed. It also seems like Keller is facing some injury problems, as right shoulder fatigue forced him out of last night’s start against the Red Sox after two innings of work.
Keller’s average velocity was down on all of his pitches, yet the right-hander chalked the performance up as “just one of those days.” Speaking to MLB.com’s Justice delos Santos and other reporters, Keller said his shoulder was feeling better after the game, though it remains to be seen if the Pirates might at least skip or push back Keller’s next start, even if an IL trip isn’t necessary.
After a rough 2021 season that saw him post a 6.17 ERA/4.98 SIERA in 100 2/3 innings, Keller’s 2022 campaign has at least been an improvement in bottom-line numbers. The right-hander has a 4.49 ERA/4.29 SIERA in 114 1/3 frames this year, due in part to only a .329 BABIP (down from his sky-high .388 figure last year). However, any above-average BABIP isn’t a good sign for a pitcher who relies on grounders more than strikeouts, as Keller has only a 20.7% strikeout rate over his career and his walk rates have also been below average.
Keller will be arbitration-eligible for the first time this winter, and his relative lack of success at the MLB level should result in a pretty modest 2023 salary. Considering the number of question marks in Pittsburgh’s rotation, Keller probably isn’t likely to be non-tendered, though a trade might be a possibility if the Pirates no longer see Keller as a building block.
Wow, that’s a long retroactive window, dating back to July 13.
It’s a typo crab boy
The Bucs’ public service announcements are equal to their management, pathetic.
I was hoping to read that Van Meter had been DFAed but apparently he remains an “ integral “ part of this team. Who else would Shelton send out to pinch hit when there’s runners in scoring position and the game’s on the line to guarantee a loss?
this Pirates team is no where near being ready to compete. Will need a new rebuild. Hayes and Cruz are Tabata and Polanco v.2
Haha you are being funny!
Lol yeah right dude I wouldn’t go that far…. Tabata and Polanco had nearly zero value. Hayes is the 2nd best defensive 3b in the league.
While I agree, Hayes is one of, if not the best defensive player at his position, he’s been a major disappointment offensively.
Now that could be said about the entire team, our leader in rbis, only has 40.
I don’t necessarily blame Hayes as much as i blame our hitting coach.
How can an entire team always be in a perpetual slump?
The Man-Because other than Reynolds,even in his even year blahs,they have no bona fide major league hitters.
If Shelton goes they will change hitting instructors but it may be that they do not have any real hitting talent near the ML level.I think that a few will become decent to good ML hitters,but it seems that many will not because of their lack of progress through AAA and the majors.
I see now why Keller had such a bad outing in a game that they may have won,But this year has become Groundhog Day part four.
The pirates have an extremely deep system. But it’s Kinda like Cleveland’s systems where it’s not top heavy with elite guys & you’re heading down the 40 man crunch path in the near future. Cleveland has just been tremendously effective in developing those good but not necessarily elite prospects.
Cruz, Hayes, and Davis are the ones with real star power. They really have to hope they carry things along.
Not every org does that though. Pirates don’t play in the worlds toughest division and Milwaukee probably loses Stearns in a year or two so there’s some hope.
Hayes sucks so bad with the bat that this contract is a disaster, all the Nutting Kool aid drinks do is go oh but his defense! Defense is meaningless on a team as bad as the pirates. They need offense but Hayes hits like a girl
And Cruz has all of 200 ABs and you people want to write him off. Even Mike Trout only hit .220 in his first 200 ABs. Give it a rest already.
Trout didn’t strike out on average of 3 times in 4 ABs though
Cruz has great potential but until he learns how to lay off sliders in the dirt, he’ll continue to strike out at an alarming rate
Jason-You can bury your head in the sand about Cruz if you want.No one expected him to come up and hit 300 and 30 home runs.Read the article quoting Neil Walker in the Tribune.He is not drinking the Pirate hype Cool-aid.Good for him.Cruz needs to learn to become a disciplined hitter.He is far too easy to get out.The hitting coach may be part of the problem,but he is not the only problem.The fundamentals that he does not show now should have been learned during all of those years in the minors.I do not think that anyone is writing him off but he does not seem to be able to change.I think that a AAA revisit would be good for him for a number of reasons.Unfortunately,the Pirates seem to be drinking the same Cool-aid as too many others.
I never once said he wasn’t struggling or doesn’t need a demotion all I’m saying is people write off players off of their first half of a season and its ridiculous. Yeah the K numbers are atrocious and you want to see more contact but let the kids play. We complain they play Newman and Van Meter but complain the kids like Cruz haven’t completely come around yet. can’t have it both ways.
I never said don’t let the kids play.I agree with another poster that you have to keep some veterans like Newman and Gamel though to show them by example how to play.
I am also not writing anyone off.That would be stupid.
The only two people in the world who know why Van Meter is still on the roster are Shelton and Cherington and they are not telling anyone why.
I am saying that this is a year for discovery and when young players struggle mightily you don’t let them keep on floundering.The Pirates have enough prospects to move other ones through to see how if they can adapt. There does not seem to be any plan since Yoshi was released.
Time to fire hitting coach Andy Haines. Not one player is hitting better under Haines. In fact they have all gotten worse. Even Reynolds and Hayes are hitting worse. Please keep him away from the young hitters coming up
Haines hasn’t helped anyone this year. Appretly Cruz is flying in a personal hitting instructor to try and turn things around. What does that tell you about Haines?
Hayes can’t hit.
He definitely can. He’s in the top 92nd percentile of hard hit rate and exit velocity. But he has a ground ball rate above 48%.
No he cant, he has hit 249 with 0 pop in his last 800 at bats
You can try and used all the advanced analytics you want but the results say he blows
sorry you bought into the Cornerstone player hype. No refunds
He also doesn’t strikeout a lot and he draws his fair share of walks. He needs to elevate the ball and embrace the launch angle revolution. I’m willing to bet its an Andy Haines issue
Do you even know what your talking about? His obp is 323 which is not good. He is on pace for 140k and 61 walks. Also on pace for 8 hrs and 54 rbi!!
Look I get it, you picked a dud as your favorite player, but hayes sucks
Yes, I do know what I am talking about. Do you know what you’re talkinga about? He has a 21.4% K-rate and 9% walk rate. The league average K% and BB% are 22.4% and 8,2%, respectively. So the problem isn’t strikeouts or walks. Even if we say he’s on pace for 61 walks and 140 K’s, that’s still a BB:K ratio of .45. League average is .37.
Nowhere did I ever say he was a good hitter this year, just that he can be. He has a 92 MPH exit velocity and 49.2% hard hit rate. Here’s the list of other players with an exit velocity of 92+ MPH and 48%+ this season: Yordan Alvarez, Aaron Judge, Mike Trout, Matt Chapman, Teoscar Hernandez, Austin Riley, Giancarlo Stanton, Vlad Guerrero Jr., Jose Abreu, Matt Olson, Tommy Pham, Byron Buxton, Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, Rafael Devers, and then Ke’Bryan Hayes.
I personally think that Hayes can be a lot like Matt Chapman. Chapman has a career 92 MPH exit velocity and 47% hard hit rate. Hayes has a 91.2 career MPH exit velo and career 48.4% hard hit rate. The difference between Chapman and Hayes? Chapman’s career launch angle is 18.1 degrees and Hayes’ launch angle is 4.5 degrees. Chapman’s hard hit and exit velocity numbers from 2019 are very similar to Hayes’, but has a difference of nearly 11 degrees in launch angle. They have a similar walk and K rate as well, with Chapman having a 21.9% K-rate and 9.4% walk rate, compared to Hayes’ 21.4% and 9% K and BB rates.
Hayes has a career 52.1% ground ball rate. Chapman has a career 36.4% ground ball rate. Hayes has a career 28.2% flyball rate, Chapman has a career 46.2% flyball rate. Chapman has a career 119 wRC+. Hayes has a career 102 wRC+. Maybe you should do a little more research beyond what the batting average and RBI’s say. They aren’t good, but that doesn’t mean he doesn’t have the potential to in the future. This isn’t Kevin Newman. This is Matt Chapman but with the worst possible launch angle possible.
Somebody will get Hayes right. It’s not always as simple as changing the launch angle and the production will come but you have to believe in that talent. Coaching staff needs an overhaul.
Totally agree. Shelton and Haines need to go. I was okay with giving Shelton leeway up until now. Just some of his decisions, both with the roster and in-game management are mind boggling. Haines hasn’t helped anyone. You’re right, sometimes it’s not always as simple as improving launch angle, but if you hvae a guy in the 90th+ percentile of both hard hit rate and exit velocity, you’re doing yourself a dis-service by letting him keep doing what he’s doing and having a 50%+ ground ball rate.
thats a whole lot of mumbo jumbo trying to say a guy is good yet he has 2 seasons of terrible results..
Yeah, he has terrible results, I’m not denying that. but has the potential to be good. He rips the cover off the ball every time he makes contact. It’s an elevation issue more than anything else. Solid walk rate, solid K-rate, just needs to hit the ball in the air more.
MLB-Hold your position.Hayes is in no way shape or form a terrible hitter.He is just never going to be a power hitter or an all star based on his hitting alone.He needs to become a more disciplined hitter who does not strike out as much as he does and he will start hitting at the level that he did in the minors.
I think based on his exit velocity and hard hit rate, he definitley can hit for power. No player has ever been in the 90th+ percentile of both of those stats and didn’t hit 20 or more home runs in 500+ plate appearances. I drew the comparrison to Matt Chapman, and it’s not that far-fetched.
Matt Chapman career exit velocity and hard hit rate: 92 MPH, 47%
Ke’Bryan Hayes career exit velocity and hard hit rate: 91.2 MPH, 48.4%
You look at the launch angle and you see where the issue is with Hayes. He has a 4.7 degree launch angle. Last year he had a 2.6 degree LA. The dude rips worm-buners all the time. They’re more like worm-obliterators based on how hard he hits the ball. He’s infurating to watch at the plate because you can see the talent, the power, and the plate discipline, but barely elevates the ball. On the occasions he does elevate the ball, he’s hitting laser-beam screamers into the gap, or long home runs. His average home run distance is 389, which is in Jose Altuve, Alejandro Kirk, and Jose Ramirez territory and even above some power hitters like Nolan Arenado, Alex Bregman, and Gleyber Torres.
I agree that it isn’t good not to hit a lot of ground balls.But I saw what the Phillies did with the launch angle to Scott Kingery.They absolutely ruined someone who would have become a good hitting ML second baseman.There were other reasons too that were just as stupid,but it was the Phillies last management regime.I suggest to just accept the fact that Hayes can become a reasonably good hitting third baseman and perhaps an all star but he is never going to make the HOF.With his swing he should be able to hit a lot of line drives that will find gaps just like he did in the minors.
Two things though: Kingery never had the raw power like Hayes. In 2019 he was in the 32nd percentile of exit velocity and 48th percentile of hard hit rate. He also struck out 29.4% of the time with a sub-8% walk rate and below the 40th percentile of whiff and chase rate (Hayes is above the 70th percentile).
I’m not saying for Hayes to put up a 18 degree launch angle, but if he were to have like a 8-12 degree launch angle, he’d be so much more productive.
MLB- With all due respect you seem to be a slave to statistics.
Kingery hit 19 home runs one year but started striking out a lot,
Baseball needs to be more than walk,strikeout,home run.
Hayes was a reasonably good hitter in the minors,but not a home run hitter.Even if he hits more home runs,is he going to strike out even more than he does now?
He will never be a home run hitter no matter what his launch angle is,and his hard hit rate will plummet.His swing is fine though he needs to get under the pitch a little bit to make the ball sail more and stop hitting ground balls.
He is an analogous situation as Kingery and those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it.I wonder if Klentak would do his job in the same way if he had it all to do over again.
MLB..these guys have no clue on what they are talking about. Hayes will be a 15 -20 he and 75 rbi guy. Cruz has not even 200 at bats . Leave the work to the scouts. At least MLB knows what’s going on
BUbba- Hayes ML career 11 hr per year,58 rbis.
Minor leagues,9 hrs per year,68 rbis
Proof is in the pudding.
He may become 15-20 and 75,but not based on the record.
Cruz is hitting 194.He needs to become a student of hitting because he is not facing minor league pitchers any more.
Both of these guys are at the point that they need to be making adjustments in order to get better and it does not seem that they are.
Hayes and Cruz have some of the best exit velocities in the sport right now. Hayes will be the first player in the Statcast Era to play 120+ games and fail to reach the 20 home run mark while having both an exit velocity and hard hit rate in the 90th+ percentile in the league. Cruz is bringing in his own hitting instructor to try and break out of this funk.
They also just need some protection in thr lineup I think too.
Cruz has to make contact to see his exit velocity, striking out on average of twice in every 4 abs it’s unlikely he’ll become a steady contact hitter this year
It’s amazing to me how quickly some of you are to give up on these young guys. Hitting in the show is not easy. Some of the best strike out a lot!
BFF- Criticizing players and not looking through rose colored glasses has nothing to do with giving up on young players.
But they are just prospects until they produce.
The Pirates tend to get into do loops with these rebuilds.Some of us remember 20 years of them.
Why can the Guardians,A’s,and Brewers limit their rebuilds to a couple of years?
And by the way,those who strike out a lot last very shortly unless they hit 40 home runs.And Hayes never was a home run hitter so he should not be expected to be but he should be able to hit a lot of doubles and 285 by now.
.260 is the new .285. 20 years ago guys like Juan Pierre who never went to the ASG averaged. 290 career would be perennial all stars these days.
Hayes was a 280 hitter in the minors and can be that in the majors with a lot of doubles if he does not mess with his swing.He will hit 10-15 home runs like this and 15 if he starts worrying about a launch angle.He is never going to be Mike Schmidt hitting.
Just three years ago the new average was 295 instead of 275.
And for the rest 200 is still 200 no matter what year it is.