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NL Notes: Cubs, Nationals, Marlins

By Maury Ahram | September 25, 2022 at 11:14am CDT

Chicago Cubs veteran starter Wade Miley left yesterday’s game with left oblique tightness after fielding a bunt, according to MLB.com. Miley, who will be 36 next season, has had a frustrating, injury-filled season. The southpaw started the season on the 10-day injured list with left elbow inflammation and dealt with an additional left shoulder strain before being activated in early May. He would make three starts in May before being faced with injuries again, eventually being placed on the 60-day injured list with a left shoulder strain in June.

The Cubs’ acquisition of Miley via waivers from the Cincinnati Reds in the offseason was rather noteworthy, as the lefty came with a $10MM salary for the 2022 season and the Cubs were not considered contenders entering the 2022 season. Miley was coming off a rather productive four-year stretch, posting a 3.53 ERA in 425 1/3 innings and making 81 starts, albeit with a low 18.0% strikeout rate and an average 8.1% walk rate. However, Miley ranked highly in his ability to miss bats; he was in the 95th percentile for Average Exit Velocity, 83rd percentile for HardHit%, 75th percentile for Barrel %, and 77th percentile for Chase Rate in the 2021 season. With the Cubs out of contention for the 2022 playoffs and Miley a free agent at the end of the season, the Cubs may decide to end his season early and give starts to players fighting to make the starting rotation in the spring.

Elsewhere in the National League:

  • The Cubs have been searching for Anthony Rizzo’s heir, and they might have found it, reports Patrick Mooney of the Athletic. First baseman Matt Mervis has had a remarkable 2022 season. Beginning in High-A South Bend, the 24-year-old mashed pitchers to the tune of .350/.389/.650 with a 1.039 OPS in 100 at-bats before being promoted to Double-A Tennessee. Mervis picked up right where he left off, slashing .300/.370/.596/.966 with 14 home runs in 203 at-bats, earning a promotion to Triple-A Iowa and continuing to punish pitchers, posting a .297/.387/.595 slash line for a .982 OPS with another 14 home runs in 195 at-bats. On the heels of this dominant showing throughout the Minors, Cubs manager David Ross has been rather coy on the Cubs’ plans for Mervis, stating that “there’s no doubt that he’ll have a great opportunity in front of him moving forward”  and that Mervis is “definitely on the radar.”
  • As Washington Nationals’ rookie pitcher Josiah Gray wraps up his 2022 season, the Nationals are keeping a close eye on his innings count and have hinted at the possibility of shutting him down early, as reported by MLB.com. Coming to the Nationals from the Los Angeles Dodgers as part of the Trea Turner and Max Scherzer trade in 2021, Gray has shown flashes of brilliance and growing pains. Cumulatively, Gray has pitched to 5.17 ERA (27 starts) in 142 2/3 innings with an above-average 24.2% strikeout rate and a high 10.4% walk rate. However, these numbers do not explain the whole story, with Gray posting a 1.13 ERA in June (24 innings) and only allowing 13 hits and 3 earned runs. However, in July, Gray pitched to a 6.75 ERA (26 2/3 innings), giving up 30 hits and 20 earned runs. With the Nationals at the bottom of the NL East, they may turn their focus to the 2023 season and give Gray an extended offseason in preparation for his age-25 season.
  • In other Nationals news, southpaw MacKenzie Gore, who was acquired in the Juan Soto and Josh Bell blockbuster at the trade deadline, is working back from his left elbow inflammation, according to MLB.com. Gore has been on the injured list since July 26 and is currently continuing his rehabilitation in Triple-A Rochester. The Nationals are hoping that the 23-year-old will make at least one big league start with the team before the end of the season, and plan to have him throw 75-plus pitches in his next rehab start.
  • The Miami Marlins’ rebuild has yet to bear any fruit, and the team may be adjusting its roster for the 2023 season. Having traded Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich, J.T. Realmuto, and Marcell Ozuna in the span of a few years, fans were aware that the team was entering a rebuild. However, the rebuild has yet to show any moderate signs of success. After making the postseason in 2020, the Marlins seem destined to finish the season below .500 for the twelfth time in the last thirteen seasons. An article by Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald reports that the Marlins view former first-rounder JJ Bleday as a “serviceable starter or platoon outfielder” and that “he does not project as a full-time center fielder.” Since a late July callup, Bleday has posted a measly .169/.285/.305/.590 slash line in his first MLB season with an inflated 28.5% strikeout percentage but with a high 13% walk rate. In a similar thought, the Marlins are “no longer counting on ” Lewin Díaz as their everyday first baseman because of his poor offensive performance. In his third season of Major League action, Díaz has posted a .163/.223/.281/.504 slash line in 148 plate appearances. Importantly, Díaz has seen an increase in his strikeout percentage and is fanning at a 30.4% clip and only walking at 6.8%.
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Chicago Cubs Miami Marlins Notes Washington Nationals J.J. Bleday Josiah Gray Lewin Diaz MacKenzie Gore Matt Mervis Wade Miley

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28 Comments

  1. DarkSide830

    3 years ago

    Nats AAA team is Rochester now.

    Reply
  2. Holy Cow!

    3 years ago

    I hope Mervis wins the starting 1B or DH job out of spring training.

    He was an undrafted free agent in 2020.

    3
    Reply
    • rondon

      3 years ago

      True, but that’s a bit deceiving since it was only a 5 round draft. He would’ve been most definitely drafted in the first 10 rounds in a regular year.

      2
      Reply
      • Holy Cow!

        3 years ago

        True, but short list of players in Theo/Jed era that have had some success drafted after fifth round with bonuses $100K and under:

        Bote
        Godley (traded for Montero)
        Effross (traded for Wesneski)
        Hughes

        They are due for a diamond in the rough.

        Reply
        • rondon

          3 years ago

          I just meant that he would not have been a UDFA in a regular draft year.. And yes, they are overdue for some luck in that regard.

          Reply
  3. jt33nym

    3 years ago

    Marlins have a lot of really good young arms. If they could find some offense to put around them, they’d be dangerous

    2
    Reply
  4. JoeBrady

    3 years ago

    Gray should’ve been shut down a month ago. He is already at double the number of IPs he had last year, is is getting torched. Take a chance on an injury while hurting the kid’s confidence. Nice Daily Double.

    And Garcia has a 74/9 K/W this year, and 23/5 this month. Abrams has a 46/5 K/W this year, and a 19/1 K/W with the Nats. They seem to share the Angels philosophy that AAA is option, and that K/W doesn’t count.

    BOTH should be in AAA until they get their K/W under 2:1. Robles too, but they’ve ruined him.

    1
    Reply
    • hiflew

      3 years ago

      Perhaps the fact that Gray has given up about 10 more home runs than any other pitcher in the NL SHOULD hurt his confidence. He has not had a good year. No point in being delusional and thinking he is a world beater when he clearly is not.

      But the key thing is that if he cannot figure out how to rebound, then he is never going to make it as a big league pitcher. Many great pitchers started out poorly in year one. Tom Glavine comes to mind immediately. I think he led the league in losses his first year. It can happen, but it’s not a guarantee.

      1
      Reply
    • Natsman1

      3 years ago

      I have never read before that the Washington Nationals ruined Victor Robles. And I doubt I ever will again.

      2
      Reply
  5. mlb1225

    3 years ago

    Does anyone think maybe the Reds and other teams knew something about Miley’s health before putting him on waivers? I get that they were starting a rebuild and trying to shed payroll, but there’s definitley no way they wouldn’t have traded him instead unless there was absoutley no buyers, right? Like when was the last time a guy had a 130+ ERA+ and was owed less than $15 million the next season for them to be put on waivers?

    2
    Reply
    • mlb1225

      3 years ago

      What I’m trying to say is, after Miley’s 2021 season and 2022 salary, it seemed too good to be true that the Reds would just let him go without trying to get anything more than salary relief out of him.

      Reply
      • Holy Cow!

        3 years ago

        At the time he was put on waivers, BTV had his trade value at zero. (Trade value is mainly future value minus salary owed.) That’s an indicator that they weren’t going to get any prospects without chipping in for the salary. Since slashing payroll was the primary goal, waivers was their go-to option.

        Reply
        • mlb1225

          3 years ago

          I really don’t think Baseball Trade Values is a great way at identifying player value. It doesn’t take into consideration a team’s needs and greatly undervalues guys with even an average salary. You’re telling me that if a team was willing to trade a guy who pitched to a 139 ERA+ in 2021 with an $10 million salary for only one year, when we’ve seen the cost for quality starting pitchers rise over the past handful of years, there is no value and no team would be willing to give up anything of value?

          2
          Reply
        • Holy Cow!

          3 years ago

          The key is future value. Miley is 35 years old. And his peripherals were that of a pitcher with a 4+ ERA plus he declined at the end of the season.

          The Cubs had the cash and took a shot on him hoping that they could flip him at the trade deadline. They signed a ton of free agents but only Robertson panned out for them in getting a prospect back.

          1
          Reply
        • quonset point

          3 years ago

          Hayden Wesneski from the Scott Effross deal is legit. That was a good deal.

          Reply
        • Holy Cow!

          3 years ago

          Yes, good deal, but that was trading a guy with a lot of control rather than a player set to become a free agent

          Reply
    • DocBB

      3 years ago

      He had a good year overall in 2021 but his last few starts that year he was really awful. Probably pitching with an injury.

      Reply
  6. StudWinfield

    3 years ago

    They way Mervis reversed his K/BB% as he moved up is quite impressive. Going to be interesting what teams hit paydirt with UFA’s after the 5 round only 2020 draft. Dunham in NYY AA is another one who may get an opportunity at some point next year.

    1
    Reply
    • drasco036

      3 years ago

      It will really be interesting if Mervis and Canario can be the “power guys” in our line up in 2023/2024.

      I’m no where near as high on Brennan Davis as some people, his K rate is terrifying to me. I think scouts fell in love with how quickly he developed in low a ball and over looked just how much swing and miss is in his game.

      Reply
      • chrismilwaukee

        3 years ago

        I agree about Davis. Mervis looks good so far. Canario I’m a little more skeptical of. PCA could be fantastic, same with Alcantara. When Alcantara fills out he will be scary strong.

        Reply
  7. DocBB

    3 years ago

    So…..the Cubs paid $10M for 0.0 bWAR from Miley. Guess the Reds weren’t so dumb after all…

    3
    Reply
    • mlb1225

      3 years ago

      I don’t think the Reds made as many bad moves as the fans gave them credit for. They let Nick Castellanos walk and he has a .702 OPS this season. Let Miley go and he’s started 8 games this year. Traded Tucker Barnhart and he’s having his worst season of his career, both offensively and defensively. Jesse Winker? He’s having a similar season to Castellanos; mediocer hitting and poor fielding. The only player they lost this off-season that really hurt is probably Eugenio Suarez. Even then, the blow has been softened with Farely doing well in a part-time role, and both Phillips and Williamson have had solid seasons. If they retained all of them, they might have been 3, maybe 5 wins better this year than they currently are.

      3
      Reply
      • Armaments216

        3 years ago

        The main problem was the narrative. The Reds could easily have spun their offseason moves as dealing from strength to fill other holes and stay competitive. But instead seemed to actively try to make it sound like a pure fire sale. Possibly a small market team trying to gain some leverage by crying poor during the ongoing CBA talks.

        1
        Reply
    • drasco036

      3 years ago

      Don’t give the reds the “broke clock” credit, that team has been a disaster since Krall took it over and dodging a bullet on Miley’s health has nothing to do with their intelligence

      Reply
      • DocBB

        3 years ago

        I don’t know man. I hate the Reds ownership but Krall has make some good decisions. Ie signing Drury, Solano, Naquin, Trading Mahle and Castillo for a ton of good prospects etc. I was skeptical of Krall too but give the man credit. The Minor trade was the only one I can think of that was just bad.

        Reply
  8. cuban363566

    3 years ago

    Perhaps the Marlins should find themselves a serviceable scouting department and coaching staff

    Reply
  9. Datashark

    3 years ago

    Shutting down early?! season has about week and half to go….early is weeks ago.

    Soto trade — it sure seems that his “replacement” Joey Meneses is out hitting him.

    Reply
  10. User 163535993

    3 years ago

    The main problem with Miley was the lockout. Same with Smyly. These were guys who needed reps in the spring to build up arm strength that they never got. The Cubs old relievers they brought in were only pitching an inning at a time early and Ross did an excellent job of spacing them out so they didn’t get hurt early. Starting was a whole different matter.

    Reply

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